Always the horses, seldom the jockey...
Daily Commentary on the Dallas Sports Scene - By Bob Sturm - Sportsradio 1310, The Ticket - The Athletic Dallas - The Athletic - Bob Sturm
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) throws a first half pass against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, Sunday, December 10, 2017. (Tom Fox/The Dallas Morning News)
Decoding Linehan
It seems like during this past month or so, it has been in fashion to pick apart young Dak Prescott to identify how he is not the best quarterback you have ever seen. It was once fashionable to wonder if he is the next franchise quarterback, but with the worst three-week span of offensive play in memory, the questions of his future were increasing along with those waxing nostalgic for a time when Tony Romo could sit in a kitchen chair without his back locking up.
It is true, by the way. There are some things Prescott cannot do like Romo could. There are some things Prescott cannot do that Troy Aikman could. Or Roger Staubach. But perhaps we could concede that no two players are exactly alike, and that there are probably things Prescott can do that Romo absolutely could not.
And maybe there is more than one way to skin a cat, too.
On Sunday, Prescott killed the blitz of the New York Giants. He did it so much that people were wondering why the Giants would continue to do something that was damaging their situation so badly. That doesn't happen much against young quarterbacks -- blitzes failing so badly that the defensive coordinator comes under fire for not realizing he is being taken advantage of by the kid -- but that is what happened Sunday.
The Giants would blitz, then Prescott would find the correct hot read and destroy him. It wasn't that hard, partly because the Giants do not have one-on-one personnel that can handle their business these days, and partly because Prescott nearly had a perfect day from a mental standpoint.
He has had a near-perfect season. Would you believe that since they installed this statistic in 1991, this is nearly the best season in Cowboys history?
According to our friends at STATS, the 2017 version of Prescott is exceeded only by the best year of Romo's career. And, for that matter, considering that we are talking about 27 different seasons of Cowboys quarterbacks -- many of them run by Aikman and Romo -- Prescott has already registered two of the top four in the first two seasons of his career. Based on the fact it took Romo until the 2014 season to fully master the blitz, would it be OK to give Prescott credit for this?
It would seem in this NFL world that this is a rather important component. Prescott destroyed the Giants' blitz on Sunday and, by the looks of it -- as he sits as the career leader against the blitz with a passer rating of 105.0 (Romo at 90.0, Aikman at 86.2, Drew Bledsoe at 83.9 at and Quincy Carter at 62.6 are the four other Cowboys quarterbacks with 200-plus throws against the blitz in their careers) -- he has done this since Week 1 of Year 1 as a Cowboy.
You may remember Bill Parcells once telling Romo a paraphrase of this: "Someday, you will want them to blitz you because that is when you will get those big plays."
It appears that Prescott -- whether you know it or not -- is already at a level of performance where his numbers indicate he has a mental acuity that is very, very good.
I would argue it goes back to his calmness. That reminds me of another Parcells-ism from his quarterback rules that were posted on the locker of Romo once upon a time:
"Don't panic -- when all around you is chaos, you must be the hand that steers the ship. If you have a panic button, so will everyone else. Our ship can't have panic buttons."
The Cowboys were in a real fight Sunday, but the quarterback's ability to kill the blitz was how Dallas won the game. And in a season when Prescott has been blamed for quite a bit, I think it is worthwhile for his critics to be informed of this attribute, where he seems to take a backseat to almost nobody who has ever worn the shirt. You will not blitz him continuously and find success.
WEEKLY DATA BOX
Sunday was the second-biggest yardage day of the year (at San Francisco was No. 1) and the biggest yardage day through the air. Another solid day on third down, and those yards per attempt at 11.1 is ridiculous. But they had three 50-yard passes to really inflate the production nicely. Also, average yards to go on third down was way down at 4.8, which is the second-best mark of the season (also behind the San Francisco road game). This is all good across the board, which is hard to believe since this was a 10-10 game midway through the fourth quarter.
DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART
The Cowboys took more shots Sunday and the receivers let their quarterback down, but overall, you will take that over the throws not being good enough. On a tough day, Prescott responded well and stuck with it. Then his receivers started making the plays, too.
PERSONNEL GROUPINGS
I really am interested in how 13 Personnel (one running back, three tight ends and one wide receiver) is more and more becoming the offense on early downs. They like the matchups. Below we will look at what it provides, because they ran some different variations of the set that are worth discussing.
Let's look at some tape:
A third-and-1 on the first drive of the game. The Giants roll out the Cover 0 blitz -- no safety available because you are blitzing Cole Beasley's guy, so Landon Collins has to roll downhill to get to him. I have no idea why you would try this on third and short, but the Giants are feeling lucky. I love that later the Cowboys will come back to this and are ready if the Giants try it again. Look at how easily Prescott sees this and how easily the third-down conversion is because, of course, Beasley needs just 36 inches to move the chains.
I am sure they said, "Next time, stay inbounds and make Collins catch you." It broke the game open.
Another third-and-short -- this time it is third and 3. Here, the Giants rush five, then drop a rat in the hole to sit on Jason Witten and Beasley underneath. So, Cover 1 -- Rat/Robber -- and this is where Prescott uses his escape to move the chains. Look at Rod Smith take out the blitzer. Beautiful stuff and fine awareness by Prescott. Also, notice the Beasley double-team. In-breaking routes always bring a second man on Beasley. He may not be helping your fantasy team, but he still is attracting a crowd.
Next play, 10:54 to go in the second quarter -- they are in 12 Personnel. They send Dez Bryant to pull a double-team to the post and slide James Hanna underneath on a rounded-off dig route. Prescott delivers a really nice throw, and they are marching.
As you can see, the Giants are blitzing, Alfred Morris has to pick up the guy off the edge and Prescott has to deliver a throw. This is when you got the feeling Prescott was trusting his arm Sunday. Burn another blitz and carry on.
Prescott's next throw is two snaps later. They're in 13 Personnel and have the Giants off balance here. Look at all of the traffic those three tight ends generate. Watch the congested middle, and then notice Bryant is one-on-one on the outside with a corner who is fresh off the practice squad -- No. 25, Brandon Dixon. There is nothing fancy here, as Bryant just runs right past him. The throw is fine and Bryant just drops it. Maybe he can't believe how open he is.
Bryant is having a frustrating season and wants to make dominating plays every week. Unfortunately, there have been a few plays he needs to make -- the touchdown against Green Bay, the throw down the sideline against Philadelphia and the pass here -- that have been 100 percent on him. He is much better than this, but this does demonstrate that when an offense goes south, there is blame to be shared by all parties.
Here is the very next play and Prescott again is playing very well. Look at this nice job of extending the play and then putting the throw right on Beasley to the sideline. But the sun makes the play for the Giants and the drive is killed. Two bad breaks end a really promising drive.
Full marks to Bryant for getting back on the horse. I am not sure why the Giants want to roll the bones again and blitz seven for another Cover 0, but the Cowboys are waiting. This is just too easy. Dixon is not tackling Bryant on a slant and if he misses high, it is over.
You can't miss high, sir. This will fail 10 out of 10 times. I blame the coaches for putting him in that spot, but he also should know who Bryant is. Walk-in touchdown.
But again, the score is just 10-10. Midway through the fourth. The Cowboys' past four drives have seen no blitzes and also have seen no points. But the Giants get antsy again.
Third and 2, 8:07 to play.
The Giants have been torched on each blitz they have tried. Not only do they blitz, but they send the house again? And they ask Collins to try to get to Beasley again? In space? I really wonder about the brain power of this Giants staff that made that call. Goodness gracious. The Cowboys were begging them to do something stupid, and they obliged. There is simply no chance Collins -- as awesome as he is -- can make this play.
The very next play, with no Collins on the field, the Cowboys roll out 13 Personnel again. They know the Giants are going to be watching Bryant -- remember the throw down the sideline on 13 that was dropped? -- so they have Witten run that seam route where he widens out his man to the sideline and then angles back in to gain leverage, leaving a spot for Prescott to drop a dime in there. He does, and this is a huge throw and touchdown to take the lead.
Finally, again, no Collins deep, the Giants' reserves are worried about Beasley and Bryant, which leaves a painfully slow backup linebacker on Smith in the open field. No blitz here, just a man trying to run with a man who is too fast with no help over the top. Intramural plays don't often work, but the Giants have nothing left for Smith, so this is a stat-padder for all involved.
Easy work, most against the blitz and some not. Prescott wins with his brain power and intelligence. If your strongest attributes are composure and intelligence, you can win with that.
Nice job against a reckless and undermanned Giants defense. Sound coaching would be to sit back and play conservatively when you don't have your guys. The Giants weren't doing that, and the Cowboys executed the plan wonderfully.
Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten (82) catches an 18-yard pass for a touchdown from quarterback Dak Prescott (4) over San Francisco 49ers free safety Jaquiski Tartt (29) to make the score 19-3 in the first quarter during a National Football League game between the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California Sunday October 22, 2017. (Andy Jacobsohn/The Dallas Morning News)
Some weeks, there is lots of information and analysis required to properly assess what has occurred for the Cowboys and their offensive performance as we have enjoyed offering for quite a few years.
But, on occasion, there is a game that is such a thorough destruction and demoralization of an opponent that it seems to quickly be set aside as some sort of mid-season scrimmage where you just hope to leave fully healthy and move on to the stiffer challenges that lie ahead.
I just don't know how to analyze games like this where it seems the opponent is in no frame of mind to deal with what is coming for them on a given day and after offering some token resistance, they spend the last three quarters just trying to get out of there themselves.
In other words, the Cowboys destroyed San Francisco in such a way that there is very little story to tell. They did whatever they wanted to do offensively, made very few noteworthy mistakes, and really had a full play-sheet to choose which strategy they would use next to knock the 49ers another 7-8 yards off the ball. It reminded me of the Bengals destruction of last season in Arlington where every component seemed to be working in concert with the other members of the offense and the final score was a matter of how interested they were in exposing valuable pieces to potential injury. Literally nothing else was at stake after the Cowboys scored their third touchdown early in the second quarter. The 49ers weren't beating anyone on Sunday - especially a team that has its offensive groove back.
WEEKLY DATA BOX
"Yards Per Play" or YPP is an interesting statistic some weeks and 7.2 is about as good as you are going to see (best since that same Bengals game in 2016). What makes it more ridiculous is that the Cowboys emptied the bench and really tried to lower that number themselves as the second half went along. They were at 8.3 YPP when they hit that screen pass to Zeke with 306 yards of total offense on just 37 snaps.
The 49ers do have some decent defensive talent, but not nearly enough. Add to that the morale of being winless and looking across at an offense that is just not feeble in the slightest and you can see how the resolve of the opponent was as low as it gets.
DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART
When you look at the chart above, you can see how the Cowboys offense is designed to work. There is literally one throw beyond 13 yards downfield (the touchdown to Witten) and no throws anywhere near the deep middle of the field. They avoid danger at all costs.
When you stay on schedule and ahead of the chains, then you never have to risk the ball down the field in any sort of way that turns high percentage plays into low percentage plays, or even worse, turnovers. When the Cowboys are playing their best, they stay out of 3rd and long and therefore can just march the ball with run plays and short passes that never risk the ball at all. This is how the interceptions are so rare without really forcing the QB to be totally accurate. There are two types of throws - high danger throws into tight spaces or easy throws into wide spaces where either your guy catches it or nobody does. This is the way Dak Prescott operates. Don't throw into danger, which is possible because you don't HAVE to throw into danger. If it was 3rd and 13 and you are behind, you either try to fit the throw in there or you lose.
But, if it is 1st and 10 and you are up 2 scores, you know that this play is not the end of the world and you can live with a punt if the opportunity doesn't present itself. No big deal.
This is how Prescott operates. He has an offense that is designed perfectly to amplify his strengths and seldom visit his weaknesses. And it all starts when the Cowboys can run the ball like we know they can.
PERSONNEL GROUPINGS
If you read this chart every week, you know it doesn't look right. Everything worked? Well, 21 personnel didn't set the world on fire (2.3 yards per play), but beyond that, literally everything went for 5 yards an attempt or more? Good gracious. This is what you see in high school football some Fridays, but usually professional defenses put up a bigger fight than this.
Again, there were pretty much zero plot twists in this game. It was a movie where everything goes really well in the first 5 minutes and then we have a few hours to kill of continued happiness turning to boredom at the end because there is no plot or conflict or anything. There are some good highlights, but beyond that, everyone gets an "A".
You should enjoy these days because they are rare.
Let's look at a few of the plays that worked well:
This is Zeke's big run in the first quarter where he went in from 25 yards untouched until the 5-yard line. Untouched on an inside run. I was watching this live and complimenting the offensive line but then I started watching the 49ers D-line on the Cowboys' right side and just got confused as to what they saw. Look at the end zone view.
There is no doubt that 70-Martin and 71-Collins are digging those linebackers out and clearing a path, but what is 69-McDaniel (across from Martin) and 96-Cooper (across from Collins) doing? Cooper seems to be sitting outside on contain, and at first glance you think McDaniel just got crushed by the pulling play of 64-Jonathan Cooper and then you see he is already on the ground by the time Cooper crushes him. If your DT and DE are going to get out of the way on runs right at them, you are going to have this result. What makes this remarkable is the score is 0-0 at this point and the game just started. I want the Cowboys to get credit for what they scored, but this defending is just atrocious.
I really liked this 3rd down play at 12:58. This is Cover 1 on 3rd and 4 and the Cowboys saw a rookie trying to deal with Dez Bryant and pretty much let him figure it out and get to the sticks. This just shows that when you put him on an island, the Cowboys trust him to win with physicality and move the chains. This is basically the same thing that makes him one of the best red-zone guys in the league, too. He will win and extend drives on plays like this. Dak just has to make a good throw.
The Niners bring 6 and 97-Watson is going to get there, but Prescott is on time and gets it to where Dez can do the rest. That extended the drive and turned into the play below:
This beautiful throw to Witten has to be on the list of Dak's very best throws of his young career. The 49ers are in Cover 1 here with the safety sitting on the underneath crosser to Dez, so that leaves Jason Witten on an "out-and-up" against 29-Tartt. I am sure the young safety was pretty sure he had the old man handled, but Witten does what he does and then finishes the play as Prescott drops it in a bucket perfectly from a nice distance and Witten secures the ball with one mitt. At no point would I call him "open", but against man coverage, you put it in a spot where only your guy can get to it and let him make a play. Unreal.
Then look at this angle. 5-man rush against 5-man protection. This is a real issue on Sundays because offensive lines can't deal with this. But, here, you see each guy has his guy stopped. The QB can scan the field, make his decision, and make his delivery without any impairment whatsoever. Very rare and underappreciated if you watch this team only, but trust me, there are quite a few QBs who don't recognize this type of protection.
Here is the play of the day. Third quarter, 1-play possession, and the kill-shot to end the proceedings.
11-personnel, with motion to the left from a receiver, Switzer, to force the defense to follow that player. It may not be convincing, but it is one more thing to think about. Watch the TE go across and get the far-side DE to sell the play going in that direction, and then the G-C-G release into the right flat and you can hear the collective cussing from the defense when they see what is happening in slow motion.
Now, with 70-Martin leading the path and joined by his friends, the convoy is complete. Get Zeke down 20 yards and then get a little help from a receiver (Noah Brown) and he will do the rest.
Just watch every player. It is really fun. The timing is important, but when they hit it right, it is just beautiful. Reminds you of one play from last season, right?
Sub Lucky Whitehead with Ryan Switzer, Doug Free with La'el Collins, and Ron Leary with Johnathan Cooper, and you have an instant replay.
This day in Pittsburgh, nobody held Frederick up so the convoy was even more daunting and then Elliott runs away from Shazier. But, that is a play on Sunday that looks like an identical replay of this one.
If you think perfectly run plays that catch an opponent in your trap is magnificent, than you really enjoyed that one. A well earned "Dilly, Dilly!".
The game was a laugher and set the new high of 501 yards of offense for a Dak Prescott-led Cowboys offense. Time to get ready for Washington. They will offer more resistance than the 49ers did, rest assured of that.
