Always the horses, seldom the jockey...
Daily Commentary on the Dallas Sports Scene - By Bob Sturm - Sportsradio 1310, The Ticket - The Athletic Dallas - The Athletic - Bob Sturm
Florida State defensive end DeMarcus Walker (44) celebrates after blocking a field goal during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Miami, Saturday, Oct. 8, 2016, in Miami Gardens. Florida State defeated Miami 201-19. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
NFL draft digest (Week 2)
This week, we grab another set of prospects who appeal to the strength of the 2017 NFL draft. So, if you happen to be a team that needs a "war daddy," as Jerry Jones likes to refer to the dominant defensive linemen, then this is a good draft for you.
There are many very good defensive line prospects, and since we follow the Dallas Cowboys here, we need to examine all of them at the top of the draft. Now, before you help us out with a very important detail we all know, I am ignoring the fact that many of these players will be off the board when the Cowboys pick at No. 28. We made the mistake back in 2012 of assuming there was no way Morris Claiborne would be available when the Cowboys picked then, so we didn't examine him too closely. Then the Cowboys traded up to get him and I was scrambling. So since it is February, I have the time to give each prospect at these key positions a morning of attention (the 200-snap treatment), and I am not too concerned about their chances of falling to No. 28 just yet. I want to watch Myles Garrett play football either way -- regardless of his future in Cleveland.
So, what is a "war daddy?" Well, it probably would help to have Jerry Jones define it, so here is what he told KESN-FM 103.3 (ESPN Radio) this week: "We need more pressure. And we can get that. But we've got to come to grips with how we're going to get it. You can get it by compromising the fundamentals of other places on your defense by, in effect, blitzing. But those are not our style. We really want a player to stay in there that defends the run, can hold the gap, as well as when called for crash the gap. So, we've got to make sure that we've got the personnel skills. We've really got it on campus, so to speak, in [DeMarcus] Lawrence and we've got it in [Randy] Gregory. They both are compromised as we sit here and speak, but they're both the type of players that we need out there.
"If I have a chance to bring one of these premier pass rushers, one of these war daddies that takes two to block, if I have a chance to get a player like that -- I would...it's not a question of that. It's a question of where is he? And who gives him up if he's a veteran, or where is he in the draft, or where is he anywhere? So, yeah we do need pressure. We're going to try to do something about it."
He calls them "war daddies." We can call them anything you want. I think if we were to define where the Cowboys need it most, it would be more on the outside. They seem to have some pretty solid talent on the inside at defensive tackle, so, although there are some generational defensive tackles in this draft -- one from Coppell -- I am thinking this team needs some edge pass rush that can really bring 10 sacks back into play.
So every week we grab five more prospects and really give them the eyeball -- 200 snaps -- and try to look at what they do and don't do well, with a projection as to how they would fit A) in the NFL, and B) in the Cowboys' defense. Some, obviously, look like terrific pros, but not a scheme fit.
Last week, we grabbed our first five (not ranked, just random top-50 prospects) in Missouri's Charles Harris, Tennessee's Derek Barnett, Auburn's Carl Lawson, Michigan's Taco Charlton and UCLA's Takkarist McKinley.
This week, I want to stay in the same general area of the draft and grab five more. So this week, it is Texas A&M's Myles Garrett, Illinois' Dawuane Smoot, Florida State's DeMarcus Walker, Alabama's Tim Williams and Stanford's Solomon Thomas.
Now, I will just tell you here, even though I am watching three complete games for each of these players, I also am biased. We all are. But I am looking for certain characteristics. The fact is, all of these guys will be in the NFL. They are all talented. But only some fit the very exact specifications of what fits a 4-3 scheme, what fits with what the Cowboys already have (there is no point in spending a top pick on someone who is "as good" as what you already have. We want improvements). I am looking for electric players who have great power and quickness and are a massive problem to block. I am not looking for guys who are "speed bumps" and have big anchors. Those guys are not generally at the top of the draft. Guys who hold their ground are important, but they also are in great supply. We need guys who live in the opponent's backfield. That is why college production on explosive plays (sacks and tackles for loss) are very important. If you average two "explosives" per game, you are a dynamite producer. Less than one explosive per game is a real concern.
OK, let's get started:
Myles Garrett - DE - Texas A&M
-- 6-foot-5, 270 pounds - 2016 first-team AP All-American
-- Stats from the past two seasons: 24 games; 21 sacks, 34.5 tackles for loss = 55.5 explosive plays
Garrett seems to have the type of total package that will get him off the board in the first few minutes of the draft. For about 24 months, it has been said he will be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft, and he has done nothing to change that perception.
POSITIVES: He has an incredibly rare combination of size and twitch. This is very rare in that most players his size are a bit more plodding and use strength as their key positive attribute. But when you get a guy his size who also has his electric "get-off" and flexibility, as well as a motor that runs hot and is highly competitive, you see that you have another Jadeveon Clowney-level prospect. Clowney was a No. 1 pick and we expect Garrett will be, too. He bends so well around the corner but is at his best when he shows his quickness and just destroys a play in the blink of an eye. They can't stay in front of him, but they also can't get to him in time. He had unreal production from the moment he first stepped on campus. He has violence in his game and is a big, lean and menacing presence. You literally can't say enough about him.
CONCERNS: I really don't have much for you here. His production in 2016 was down, but he sustained an injury in late September that caused issues all season. He had only 8.5 sacks and 4.5 of them came in one game against UTSA, so that isn't great. But throughout three years of being a marked man, he averaged just under a sack per game and had 81 explosives in 36 games. That is insane. He did look like he played a bit "carefully" late in the season, to both protect his injury and draft spot, but even then he wanted to stay on the field and help his team, so there is little to be alarmed about. Your only concern is blocking him.
-- TOP TALENT IN THE DRAFT.
DeMarcus Walker - DT/DE - Florida State
-- 6-4, 280 - 2016 second-team AP All-American, ACC Defensive Player of the Year
-- Stats from the past two seasons - 26 games; 26.5 sacks, 37 TFLs = 63.5 explosives
Once again, the production is off the charts for another player who possesses many of the attributes teams are looking for. He has been a force in the past few years as Florida State's talent factory turns out another stud.
POSITIVES: Walker is an interesting player in that he has plenty of utility. He is an early-down defensive end for me, and far more explosive when Florida State would push him inside on passing downs to feast on guards. His interior quickness is unquestioned, and he can go with speed or power to maul players, which tells you he seems far more like a 3-technique than a defensive end/edge rusher. He also has a very uncanny ability to sense what is happening around him, and this is indicative of high intelligence and the ability to study well all week to have the big picture sorted out by gameday. He will hold his anchor against the run and squeeze through cracks at times, getting into the backfield.
CONCERNS: He is not really a candidate on the edge for me. There is just not a lot of edge-level twitch to his game, and I am a bit slowed by how often he gets stoned in his spot by a tackle. He also seems to have long droughts in impact, but there is no questioning his overall production. You would have to call his overall pass rushing "ordinary" and wonder what his future in the NFL would be at defensive end. If you need inside guys, I like him a lot, but the Cowboys just took Maliek Collins and I think they are very similar players. I was hoping for a little more "high-end" flash.
-- Very solid prospect at defensive tackle. Likely a second-rounder.
Tim Williams - EDGE - Alabama
-- 6-4, 252 - 2012 high school All-American
-- Stats from the past two seasons: 28 games; 19.5 sacks, 28.5 TFLs = 48 explosives
Williams is going to be one of the most debated names on draft day as he comes with very unique skills, a host of red flags and cautionary whispers about investing in him too highly.
POSITIVES: Turn on some Tim Williams tape and you are going to see all of the flash of some of the NFL's best edge rushers. He is scary off the edge and possesses a quickness and suddenness that is nothing short of elite. He looks very similar to Von Miller on his best plays, and there is no better compliment. He is lightning and also has impressive strength for his size. He can bully tackles, despite being a rather small edge player. He is going to be trouble at the next level in a 3-4 scheme as an outside edge rusher.
CONCERNS: There are many. Off-the-field conduct whispers have followed him throughout his time at Alabama, and it ranges from sources at Alabama claiming he has failed many drug tests to his overall view of how important football is to him. On the field, you also have the discussions about why he had such a limited role in college. For a team like Dallas, I don't really see a fit because situational pass rushers are just not ideal first-round picks for me. I think he can go either way in his pro career, but one important component will be to get to a 3-4 defense and feed off the end to stack those sacks up.
-- First-round talent, with a fair amount of baggage.
Dawuane Smoot - DE - Illinois
-- 6-3, 255 - 2016 third-team All-Big Ten
-- Stats from the past two seasons: 24 games; 13 sacks, 30 TFLs = 43 explosives
Smoot is another edge force in this draft who can combine an array of skills and help build a team's D-line group.
POSITIVES: Smoot is a very interesting player who has some incredibly impressive moments on tape when he can destroy plays and live in the backfield. It is sometimes tricky to evaluate players because of what is around him. If a guy plays for Florida State and Alabama, sometimes you are influenced by their plays only to find out they are feeding off favorable matchups that won't be available on Sundays because of the talent around them. Smoot is the opposite, playing on a side with limited talent and being keyed on quite a bit. To see him compete hard against Michigan while his team was down five touchdowns proves his competitiveness, and then to see him convert speed to power on sacks from the edge is equally impressive. He has limitations, but there is something there for sure.
CONCERNS: He has some moments of looking quite ordinary and not having a whole lot that would separate him from the rank and file at the next level. He can play big, but we don't always see that. Against the run, there are real questions as to whether he can stand his ground on runs at him. Moving to the edge is no issue, but standing his ground seems to be. Just not overly twitchy and explosive for the most part, and as the athletes continue to improve all around him, you wonder how that translates to Sundays. He also appeared to wear down as the game goes along, but that is to be expected at his size while trying to play defensive end. But he may not be athletic enough to move to linebacker.
-- Good talent, but not a high ceiling.
Solomon Thomas - DE/DT - Stanford
-- 6-3, 275 - 2016 first-team All-Pac-12
-- Stats from the past two seasons: 27 games; 11.5 sacks, 25.5 TFLs = 37 explosives
The best defensive tackle prospect in the draft.
POSITIVES: When I think war-daddy types, I think Fletcher Cox and Aaron Donald -- players from past drafts who were taken in years when the Cowboys needed help at defensive tackle and were unable to match up with the leaders from that season. This is that type of player. Absurd athleticism. Now, it is important to note that Thomas was a redshirt sophomore, so he has only played two years of college football, and thus his stats are not quite as mind-boggling as some of the others we look at, but from a tape standpoint of the jaw-dropping destruction of college guards in his path, he is off the charts. His power and short-area quickness are gifts that seem wasted at defensive end, but when he is lined up inside -- which I assume will be his home in the NFL -- he can absolutely humiliate big men in front of him. He can do whatever you want in short spaces, from beating a man at the snap to slicing through a double-team. His final college game, a bowl win vs. North Carolina, was a three-hour clinic on why this Coppell product appears he could be an NFL star for years to come. A tremendous motor and will to fight all day long make him a very enticing talent.
CONCERNS: While he can handle things on the outside, I think a big part of the NFL process is finding where a player can be special. I just believe that is to use his skill set like Cox and Donald do -- to probe his way to space inside. He is so good as a 3-technique candidate. You may be concerned about his numbers, but the way Stanford rotates guys and balances roles suggest that shouldn't slow you down. Otherwise, I see no real issues or concerns.
-- I assume we will see him taken in the top half of the first round.
*****
Ten prospects down, five more next week. We will do one more batch of D-linemen, but I may move to cornerbacks for Week 3.
Hopefully, you have been reading my weekly reports for years and years. If you have, you know all about some of my theories and findings that this many years have provided. If not, let's get you caught up on one of the main truths about defense -- it plays in wildly different game situations that it often has very little to do with. And when you ask it to play downhill versus uphill, it wildly affects its ability to help you win.
This is what is tricky about football sometimes. We want to evaluate everything independently, but sometimes that is very difficult. A defense needs an offense to hold the ball a bit, but far more importantly than the overrated time of possession obsession that so many people have, the defense needs the offense to score. This may seem obvious, but sometimes when we talk about T.O.P. there are actually some people who wonder about the negative byproducts of scoring too fast. Let me help you on that -- there are none.
The main objective of any and every offense is to score. Owning the ball is a theory that the defense will never have to take the field -- which is a theory that only works if you play in a make-it-take-it league. Since none of those exist in the pro ranks, it is a faulty system. Now, of course, if you can score and eat 10 minutes, great. But, there is no real correlation between winning and time of possession. It is a product of winning, not a driver of winning.
But, there is correlation between that game situation for a defense. Across the NFL, when a defense is ahead by 4+ points, the interception rate shoots up off the graph and the sack rate compounds over and over again. In other words, defenses that are ahead do more of the fun things we all want to see.
Why? There are a number of reasons. One, the opposition stops running a balanced offense and simply starts passing more. It also gets aggressive and holds the ball in the pocket hoping for a play to open up out of desperation. It forces the ball into coverage. Meanwhile, the defense starts pinning its ears back and simply not caring about playing the run honestly. It starts stunting and blitzing because there is blood in the water.
By in large, sacks are found when you are ahead. And since the Cowboys took a lead early against the Bengals, we saw this play out yet again on Sunday.
To give you an example of how this might have something to do with what you think of the Cowboys defense, just know this: In 2014, the Cowboys defense played with a 4+ point lead on 49 percent of all snaps (483 snaps). It was an insane amount of advantageous snaps. In 2015, that number dropped off the face of the planet all the way down to 16 percent (159 snaps). So far this year? The defense has played in 206 snaps up 4+ points! That is good for 63 percent!
So that is good news and bad news. The good news is that the Cowboys are always ahead! The bad news is that even with this great advantage, they are still below league average in sacks and takeaways. In other words, they have probably been ahead more than almost anyone (Minnesota would be the exception) and while some teams are up near 20 sacks, the Cowboys needed a huge night to get the season total to 10. They are 17th in sacks and 22nd in takeaways, despite having everything tilted in their direction.
But, let's not worry about those ominous clouds. Let's focus on the uptick that coincided nicely with the return of DeMarcus Lawrence. Anytime the Cowboys get 4 sacks in a game, our film study demands we go in that direction.
This is just the fourth time since the start of the Marinelli era (39 games now) when the team has achieved the 4-sack badge -- 2015 vs. New England, 2014 in London vs. Jacksonville and at Philadelphia.
Let's look at some of the damage:
You are going to see a lot of this is built around Anthony Brown blitzing today. Here, the Bengals sniff out the slot blitzer, and move the right guard to pull out on a play-action look to get the edge guy which works well. What doesn't work well is that the center 61-Bodine tries to deal with 92-Cedric Thornton and is just flat destroyed. It looks like he got tripped, but Thornton arrives at Dalton in a hurry and this play never had a chance. That was at 14-0. The rest are when the game is in full-blowout mode.
This isn't a sack, but it is a play destroyed by pass rush. Bootleg to get Dalton out in space, but 93-Benson Mayowa is showing outside linebacker wheels and motor to end this play pretty quick, too. I thought it deserved some recognition today. Wonderful power to knock the TE off the block and then great quicks to chase Dalton down. Mayowa is a very useful piece on passing downs.
Rod Marinelli defenses employ a ton of teamwork in pass rushing. He wants active bodies and he wants to use them in concert and tandems to free each other up. It is difficult to say if this is an intended tackle-tackle game or whether it just organically occurred (to me it looks intentional), but Maliek Collins definitely freed up Terrell McClain for a clear path at Dalton here. You will see this a lot, so I am pretty sure they are taught to try to get home, but if you can't, obstruct or hip check someone else's guy to give him a win. This is clearly something that doesn't show up in the box-score, but Maliek Collins deserves something for making this sack possible.
Coverage sack here. You can see nothing open so Dalton has to wait. That, of course, makes this happen. This is McClain and Jack Crawford (so underrated) who meet at the QB as he tries to escape the pocket. This play shows the 4 rushers are just a pack of wild animals here. Great effort levels and motor. Like we said, they can smell blood now in the fourth quarter of a 28-0 rout.
This sack didn't count because of a bit of a ticky-tack call on Justin Durant in the secondary. But, watch 75-Ryan Davis work over the Aggie 70-Cedric Ogbuehi who offers the body posture of someone who knows they just did something very wrong. Again, it didn't count, but you can see why Ryan Davis is worth having on this roster.
And then this final sack is just an example of what this defense is all about right now. Full effort from everyone for 3 hours and that 97-Terrell McClain might be the best of the bunch at this. His energy is so good. I have been really impressed with him all season. What a great under-the-radar improvement to just get him healthy. Mayowa gets this sack as again, you have multiple guys bearing down on the QB which makes life miserable for a guy trying to look downfield.
This bonus GIF is from the second quarter on third down. I just wanted you to see another rush where they are perfectly in concert and working together to cause problems. Dalton did not get near the sticks, so this is a win -- getting off the field on third down.
Can they keep this up? I like their chances if the score is going to continue to be in their favor so much.
WEEKLY DATA
A massive improvement on allowing explosives. Just two is great. Also, you will take 5.5 yards per play. Again, so much garbage time influences a lot of numbers.
ANDY DALTON THROW CHART
What a job by this team for taking AJ Green out of any sort of explosive day. I think the corners have all played very well for five weeks. Anthony Brown looks like a great sixth-round pick and Claiborne keeps making plays. More importantly, you can see Claiborne get that swagger back. It was long gone for quite a while.
SPLASH PLAYS
And now the season totals for splash plays through 5 games show some unlikely leaders:
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
There is nothing to say after this defensive performance other than offer positive reviews and wonder if they have figured out how to make an anonymous defensive line work again. Surely, this needs to be tested against the Packers, Eagles, and Steelers in the next month or so, but the pressure is coming and although the attempts per sack are still way too low (19.7 attempts per sack), Sunday was a big step forward.
Green Bay wants to run to put less on a passing game that is just stuck in a low gear right now, but Eddie Lacy's availability and effectiveness are going to be called into question with what appears to be a high ankle sprain last Sunday against the Giants. You won't believe this, but it seems like a great time to play Aaron Rodgers. Their passing game is just not close to what it has been for years. In other words, whatever the plan was against the Bengals in coverage, I suspect that will be pretty good this week. However, the Packers' pass protection has been so good and Rodgers often gets forever to try to find receivers that don't seem open very often.
But, that might depend on the game situation as well. Which means we don't know how much of the plan was dependent on the Cowboys being up 14-0 before the Bengals touched the ball a second time. And that is highly unrealistic to expect each week.
This should be a very interesting test for this defense.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Brandon Doughty (6) fumbles the ball after being hit by Dallas Cowboys' Shaneil Jenkins in the first half of an NFL preseason football game, Friday, Aug. 19, 2016, in Arlington, Texas. The Cowboys recovered the fumble. (AP Photo/Ron Jenkins)
Training camp is filled with managing expectations. There are guys who we expected a lot from who we have barely seen yet. There are guys we didn't expect anything from who emerge. You would like to think it always will balance out at zero, but the good teams find gems in the trash and still nail their top picks often enough. The bad teams chase their tails.
We hope the Cowboys are the former, not a bad team again.
Regardless, this camp has had a few gems, but they have been largely disguised in the footnotes around another Dak Prescott praise piece. That is fine. This is a quarterbacks league, and if you found one in the compensatory picks after Round 4, that is a pretty neat trick.
But what about the others? I try to take careful notes every time a player flashes. And the one that keeps getting notes among the anonymous types? No. 69. Nice.
The man who wears No. 69 is Shaneil Jenkins. I confess to not having paid attention to him during the draft season. Too far down the list. Luckily, others did not ignore him. NFL.com's Gil Brandt discussed Jenkins in March:
"While West Virginia possesses a good number of quality prospects, a small-school player from Shepherd might have made the biggest impression on scouts.
"Shepherd defensive end Shaneil Jenkins -- 6-foot-2 7/8, 281 pounds -- ran the 40-yard dash in 4.78 and 4.86 seconds. He had a 20-yard short shuttle time of 4.5 seconds. He did the three-cone drill in 7.25 seconds. He performed 24 reps of 225 pounds on the bench press. Jenkins is described as looking the part; he's got a great physique. He was very impressive in his pro-day workout, showing quickness.
"Only four teams showed up at Shepherd's pro day on March 31, so Jenkins took it upon himself to perform a workout in front of a larger audience of NFL scouts at West Virginia's pro day, and it might have earned him a low-round draft slot. He should at least be a priority free-agent pickup for a team following the NFL draft."
Huge production from a Division II school. Something like 28 sacks in three seasons. Ignored, and then signed as a rookie free agent.
We have heard this story before. It happens.
But then the team that signed him, (Denver), cut him just a week into camp. Whoa. Why? How the heck does a player who has something get cut one week into camp when rosters are at 90? That is usually reserved for guys who just don't want to play football anymore or are proven to have no business in an NFL camp -- let alone on a roster.
So, the Cowboys bring in "Bronco" (That is his new nickname. Aren't pro athletes clever?) and those of us who are cynical for a living have a bar down on the ground, because what can you possibly find on Aug. 3 when there are 2,880 players already in camps across the league?
Now, imagine my surprise when this guy has basically done everything we hoped Nebraska's Maliek Collins was going to do in this camp as the third-round pick? Collins hasn't made an impression yet as he returns from injury. Meanwhile, Jenkins looks the part of a Day 2 pick. Instead, he goes undrafted and has been cut once already.
I have no idea why Denver didn't need him. In fact, when they cut him, he was replaced by another defensive end, so the premise that they are fine there can't be right. Is he not a scheme fit? Is he not a defensive end?
Now we are getting warmer.
It appears he is a perfect 3-technique prospect. Obviously, you always want to find the "under tackle" in this scheme. The Cowboys already paid Tyrone Crawford a ton of money and drafted Collins, too, so there isn't much of a vacancy here. They are trying him elsewhere, but the plays I am about to show you are pretty much all 3-tech stuff. He played more snaps on defense against Miami than any other Cowboy, so the coaches are looking hard at him.
Putting these clips together, I have arrived at the following conclusion: I am not cutting him.
Tackle-end stunt -- look at the closing speed of this big fella as Jared Goff gets sacked for the first time in his NFL career.
These next two clips are simply showing you his quickness traits. He doesn't make plays, but look at the first nose across the line.
So quick!
He is jumping the snap!
This time, David Irving is first across, but Jenkins cleans up. He is really good against the run as a backside pursuit man.
But the big flash is going to be in pass rush. Get your 3-tech isolated with a guard and watch him eat. Look at this pressure. Great stuff from an undrafted guy who was cut this month.
This is my favorite play because he is being double-teamed. He doesn't make a play here, but look at this dude flash into the backfield as both the guard and tackle face each other and wonder how he just bulled through them.
Now, on to Miami. Like Dak, can he do it again?
How about another stunt -- this time a tackle/tackle -- and he goes in for the strip sack. This is so impressive.
Another angle. Look at that rip move to get under the guard. Then, he is able to control his body and get back to make the play. Nice footwork, big man.
Here, he stays home and eats up the running back for a tackle for loss. Strong at the point of attack.
And one more, as he gets down the line and gets in on another tackle. Big and active body.
Look, I am not saying they have found Warren Sapp, but I love this kid. I think they wish he popped more at defensive end -- and maybe he can give them something there -- but his real value looks to be inside. I say you can't have too many of those.
There are numbers to consider here because Tyrone Crawford and Maliek Collins are making the squad. Cedric Thornton is the other tackle with Jack Crawford -- who actually is your starting defensive end during all the suspensions -- while Terrell McClain is behind him, too. They may only want to keep four and earlier in camp, people were talking Rodney Coe, too.
But Jenkins is impressing the heck out of me and if they need to make cuts now, this kid from Shepherd University is on my 53-man roster.
