Decoding Garrett - Week 16 - Data - At New York

The Cowboys seasons have ended in somewhat similar fashion over the last several years. Admittedly, the records have been different and the details do vary some, but it seems that invariably, when the season does end, it ends in a way that is reminiscent
of Cowboys' failures past.

Since Tony Romo's bobbled hold in Seattle, each subsequent season ender was decided with the Cowboys offense looking at its lineman as a major culprit and what should be a major objective moving forward.

In 2007, it was an offensive line that did not hold up in the 4th Quarter against a strong Giants' front. Most damaging indictment was on the game's final play that the go-to receiver, Jason Witten, was forced to stay in and help block so Tony Romo was not sacked to end the season. In the aftermath, concerns of the offensive line were everywhere.

In 2008, losing 3 out of 4 in the month of December ended a tumultuous year. Down the stretch, with losses in Pittsburgh, at home against Baltimore, and at Philadelphia, the line crumbled again. Before December, the Cowboys allowed the 8th fewest sacks in the league. But after December 1, no team in the NFL allowed more sacks than the Cowboys did (13). The concerns with the offensive line where there for all to see.

IN 2009, the Cowboys had a wonderful year along the offensive line. Without question, it was the finest year of pass protection and run production the organization has had in the last decade. All went according to plan until they advanced to play the strong front of the Minnesota Vikings at the Metrodome in the divisional round of the playoffs. 6 sacks later, the Cowboys were bruised, beaten, and eliminated. Anyone who watched that game would be hard pressed to suggest the Cowboys line did their job very well.

In 2010, the breakdown happened earlier in the season, with Tennessee sacking Romo 6 times as once again Marc Colombo and Leonard Davis looked old and slow. 2 weeks later, Romo was lost for the season as the Giants were able to slam him to the turn and break his collarbone. Any doubt about the OL's pass protection ability was difficult to confirm with sack totals, because they only allowed 31 the whole season. But, observers started to see that Jason Garrett was continuing to alter these totals with play calling. Short passes, many behind the line of scrimmage, were his best remedy for pass protection breakdowns. If Romo (or his healthy QB) could get rid of the ball before his OL was beaten, they could keep any stretchers from being needed.

And in 2011, with the season on the line, the season collapsed again in December. The team was 7-4 entering the final month of the year and had allowed only 20 sacks in 11 games. At times, it was preventive play calling and at other times, the offensive line started to show that it was getting better with many new, young components. Tyron Smith, Phil Costa, and Bill Nagy were now starters and team put an incredible amount of faith and belief in their ability to protect and form holes for the running game.

But, then came December, where only the Chicago Bears allowed more sacks to their QBs than the Cowboys allowed. 19 sacks in 5 games (and countless others escaped by Romo), and a running game that plummeted to 25th in the league due to an injury to DeMarco Murray and the line unable to get a push against the tough lines in New York and Arizona.

It is the same old situation at the moment of truth. An offensive line that does not protect and serve, but rather an offensive line that prevents the offense from having enough time and space to get the ball to its difference makers. One shudders to think what Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith would have been able to accomplish if Tony Romo's offensive lines were to replace the fabulous lines of the 1990s.

Nowhere is this more apparent than against familiar divisional foes, especially on the road. In 8 home games, the Cowboys allowed 11 sacks. In 8 road games, they suffered 28. And now that we established the problems in December and the problems on the road, we understand how tough it is going to be when they have to play a December game on the road against the New York Giants.

A few weeks ago, we discussed at great length the "game plan for road games" that Jason Garrett has used. I encourage you to review that piece that originally ran after the game at Arizona. Since 2008, when the Cowboys face a road test against an opponent with a notable defensive front, Garrett enters the game with very little faith in his line (for obvious reasons). He then attempts to protect them by calling almost no run plays (save for shotgun runs on 3rd and long to get his punter some space) and no pass plays that require time and protection. It is a series of quick outs, screens, dump downs, and a passing offense that cannot stretch the field.

This actually can work, but only if the team stays on schedule. If it ever gets into a 2nd or 3rd and long (which will happen often), then he has no choice but to ask his protection to hold up so that the Cowboys can move the chains. This risks his QB to taking another beating and invites blitzes and stunts to expose the line yet again. The Cowboys switch to almost exclusively shotgun, and the defense can then replace its run stoppers with more cover guys and Romo's job gets even more difficult.

Garrett tried 5 traditional runs on Sunday from under center in the entire game. Five. And then, because the score had tilted against him at 14-0, the only other run play from under center tried for the remaining 3 quarters was the horrible QB sneak in the 4th Quarter that never had a chance. Basically, the Cowboys OL never fired forward the entire night. They backed up in retreat as they attempted to keep the crumbling pocket alive for another second.

So, given the cycle of repetition we are seeing year after year, where the offense can go as far as the line can take them, we can debate whether Garrett should show more faith in his offensive line or if he is just doing what should be done with his play calling. But, what can't be argued (I wouldn't think) is that the Cowboys must continue to make the OL its top priority. They are wasting the prime of a difficult to find QB who can play at a very high level by not providing him the protection in key moments like many of the successful QBs in this league enjoy.

Put another way, it appears you can have all of the skill players in the world assembled, but unless you can figure out a way to protect your QB, it won't matter.

Data from Week 16 at New York

Run-Pass	15-44
1st Down Run-Pass	7-21
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.88
2nd Down Run-Pass	5-13
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.58
3rd Down Run-Pass	2-10
3rd Down Conversions	4-12, 33%

HTML Tables

From a play calling standpoint, despite wanting balance in the offense of run/pass, it is clear that in similar road settings (at New England, at Philadelphia, at Arizona, at New York) the Cowboys abandon the run in the 1st Quarter. Regardless of score, there is no reason a team cannot stick to their game plan better unless they realize they have no chance to run the ball in running situations.

Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass
Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass
Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass
Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 9-Buffalo - 10 Drives - 7 Run/3 Pass
Wk 10-At Washington - 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 11-Miami - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 12-At Arizona - 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 13-New York - 12 Drives - 7 Run/5 Pass
Wk 14-At Tampa - 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Wk 15-Philadelphia - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 16-At New York - 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass 44% Run


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	1	0	1-0	0-0
12	4	13	1-1	3-12
13	0	0	0-0	0-0
21	3	2	1--1	2-3
22	3	9	3-9	0-0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S02	2	4	0-0	2-4
S11	45	259	9-44	36-215
S12	1	8	0-0	1-8
Knee	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	59	295	15-53	44-242

Table Tutorial

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	1	0	1-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S02	1	-8	0-0	1--8	0/0
S11	11	38	2-14	9-24	4/0
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	13	30	3-14	10-16	4/0

Table Tutorial

Just look at how bad the offense was on 3rd Down when the pass protection is most vital. 10 passes for a total of 16 yards is horrendous. If you want one explanation, it is because Tony Romo knows he will not have a chance to go through his reads without a large defensive end trying to put him in the hospital. His eye level is down making sure he doesn't get blindsided instead of seeing his receivers down field. And it is tough to blame him too much.

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66
Wk 2 - SF: 32/66
Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62
Wk 4 - Det: 29/75
Wk 5 - NE 31/67
Wk 6 - StL 10/60
Wk 7 - Phi 39/49
Wk 8 - Sea 19/59
Wk 9 - Buf 15/61
Wk 10-Was 24/73
Wk 11-Mia 25/58
Wk 12-Arz 29/67
Wk 13-NYG 28/58
Wk 14-TB 26/67
Wk 15-Phi 39/66
Wk 16-NYG 48/59

Total - 445/1012 43.9%


As you can see, the Cowboys were as one dimensional as it gets. Lots of shotgun is never good for a team. It usually says it is the final chance and they are well behind in the game. Last time the Cowboys ran so much shotgun? When Jacksonville crushed them in 2010.

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Next week, we will publish the season totals and look at things from a larger perspective for the 2011 campaign.

And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

Decoding Garrett - Week 15 - Data - Philadelphia

When a team decides to throw its game-plan in a trash can and allow its 3rd string QB and 5th string RB to play the rest of the game against a divisional opponent that appears to be playing hard, well, there is just very little we can draw from it in terms of learning about the Dallas Cowboys offense.

Instead, it allows us once again to reflect on the importance of the Quarterback position in the National Football League. We all know how important it is to have one of the good QBs in the league, but perhaps we again saw it come into focus on Saturday. One twist stunt blitz from the Eagles defense and Tony Romo was knocked out of the game by Jason Babin.

That speaks about 2 things: 1) that teams are attacking the interior of the Cowboys offensive line and we should expect more and more of that until Phil Costa and whoever is playing guard next to him demonstrate an ability to sort through the confusion quick enough to pick up the right guy (and at the very least don't let one of the best pass rushers in the sport hit your QB untouched). And 2) how fragile this whole house of cards is for every team in the league. You might be rolling along nicely in your season and one snap later it is laying in a pile on the turf and your year is in the trash bin.

A team must find a QB it can get production from and then use all of its resources to keep it upright. And the Cowboys flirted with disaster in a giant way against the Eagles and it looks like they may have lived to talk about it. We shall see if Romo can be effective on Sunday night at Met Life Stadium in New York.

Meanwhile, let us reflect for just a moment on what we were forced to breakdown from Saturday. Here is a list of games in the "Romo Era" (2006 to present) where the Cowboys had fewer than 240 total yards in a game and the results. Please pay special attention to the QB who was on the job in each situation:

Date	Opponent	Total Yards	QB
12/24/11	L Phil	238	McGee
11/07/10	L GB	205	Kitna
11/02/08	L NY	183	Johnson
10/26/08	W TB	172	Johnson
12/30/07	L Wash	147	Johnson
12/25/06	L Phil	201	Romo

HTML Tables

As a point of comparison, there were 20 such games between December, 2000 and 2006 (or between Aikman's last game and Romo's first). So, the fact that there have only been 6 games in the last 6 seasons and 5 of them was when Romo was hurt does again speak volumes about the importance of having a QB and then having an offensive line that allows him to do what he does.

I have always had optimism about Stephen McGee as a prospect for the squad. Part of it is founded in being amazed at his toughness and magnetism as a QB in the college ranks and part of it is hoping the Cowboys did not waste another premium draft pick when they took him as the top pick of the 4th Round in the 2009 draft.

But, aside from demonstrating arm strength for the NFL level, it has been hard to see reasons why the Cowboys should stop shopping for an understudy and potential successor to Romo in Dallas. McGee plays a very conservative style of QB with constant check downs and allows the defense to creep closer and closer to the line of scrimmage which makes his check downs even less productive. A theory would be that he has been coached to not show aggression when he is called into a game but rather drive the bus carefully between the curbs and just don't throw interceptions. If that is how he is being coached, then he is doing that well, but that is not helping his stock around the league as a QB prospect of note.

I assume the Cowboys know what they have there, and either they will make him a clear #2 in 2012 or they will cut him loose and begin the process again. Because McGee's contract will come due soon and at that point you will have to have a clear feeling on what you have this many years into his career. It did speak volumes that the Cowboys left camp feeling they still needed Jon Kitna in 2011, despite Kitna having lost his ability to throw the ball down the field and to the sidelines years ago.

Anyway, 238 yards will seldom win anything in the NFL and the Cowboys can thank the injury gods for having mercy on Romo's hand.

Here is the data from Week 15:

First, the Quarterback throw chart. Blue shows completions, red are incompletions, and yellow touchdowns. This week's chart is a bit different, because we have a few Romo throws (black) and everything else will be Stephen McGee throws. Also, I left last week's chart below for anyone that has a hard time appreciating the starting QB around here, they can compare back and forth.

QB vs Philadelphia


QB at Tampa Bay


As you can see, the depth of the throws may not be as different as you might think. It is the accuracy and the quick decision making. McGee still really struggles to pull the trigger when he is in the middle of the play, whereas a veteran QB knows what he wants to do as he is dropping back. Way too many red throws that close the line of scrimmage for McGee against the Eagles.

Data from Week 15 vs Philadelphia

Run-Pass	23-43
1st Down Run-Pass	12-14
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	8.95
2nd Down Run-Pass	9-12
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	8.82
3rd Down Run-Pass	2-15
3rd Down Conversions	6-17, 35%

HTML Tables

This shows you how bad the Cowboys offense can do when it gets behind schedule. Not since Week 7 at Philadelphia have the Cowboys done such a poor job on 1st Down where they faced 8.95 yards to go on their 21 2nd down situations. Then, they barely improved their spot by 3rd Down where they had to deal with 8.82 in 17 3rd Down situations. This makes you 1-dimensional, predictable, and highly susceptible to blitz situations. A very poor combination.

Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan.

Not much can be learned from Saturday's data here, either. The Cowboys started their 1st 2 drives with runs to Felix Jones, but after that, there is no discernible pattern about their intentions.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass
Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass
Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass
Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 9-Buffalo - 10 Drives - 7 Run/3 Pass
Wk 10-At Washington - 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 11-Miami - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 12-At Arizona - 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 13-New York - 12 Drives - 7 Run/5 Pass
Wk 14-At Tampa - 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Wk 15-Philadelphia - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Total: 169 Drives - 75 Run/94 Pass 44% Run


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.


Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	1	-8	1--8	0-0
12	9	38	6-15	3-23
13	2	8	1-4	1-4
21	6	-1	4-8	2--9
22	9	50	8-37	1-13
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S02	8	32	0-0	8-32
S11	26	108	3-24	23-84
S12	5	11	0-0	5-11
Knee	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	66	238	23-80	43-158

Table Tutorial

Some amazingly unproductive results from the "under center" offense in this game. I have to believe the Giants will not even look at this film as the Cowboys had all of the conviction that they would in a game in mid-August.

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	1	-8	1--8	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	1	0	1-0	0-0	0/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S02	4	21	0-0	4-21	1/0
S11	8	63	0-0	8-63	3/0
S12	3	11	0-0	3-11	1/0
Totals	17	87	2--8	15-95	5/0

Table Tutorial

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66
Wk 2 - SF: 32/66
Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62
Wk 4 - Det: 29/75
Wk 5 - NE 31/67
Wk 6 - StL 10/60
Wk 7 - Phi 39/49
Wk 8 - Sea 19/59
Wk 9 - Buf 15/61
Wk 10-Was 24/73
Wk 11-Mia 25/58
Wk 12-Arz 29/67
Wk 13-NYG 28/58
Wk 14-TB 26/67
Wk 15-Phi 39/66

Total - 397/953 41.6%


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Overall a very difficult game to look at, but the Cowboys clearly did not have any regard for the game, so we shouldn't either. It is all or nothing in Game #16.

And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

Decoding Garrett - Week 14 - Data - Tampa Bay

As a big fan of the English Premiership (Soccer), I am reminded of a certain fan song that comes to mind when the Cowboys get healthy against an opponent of Tampa Bay's caliber. The lyrics go something like this:

"Can we play you? Can we play you? Can we play you every week?"

Clearly, football would be a lot easier if you only played teams that had almost no offense or defense in terms of talent or resolve. And we should give the Cowboys credit for realizing this opportunity and being able to put Tampa out of its misery rather early in the contest. This allowed for time on the sidelines for key figures of the team and a relatively easy night on the injury front.

Philadelphia and New York stand ahead on the road to the playoffs and it would be foolish to expect anything similar from those two rivals, but this was a good opportunity to demonstrate the vast improvement that the Cowboys have enjoyed offensively since the half-way point of the year.

Back on November 10, we spent a fair amount of time focusing on the Cowboys offensive metrics from the 1st half of the season.

Despite some reasonable personal performances, as an offense, the Cowboys had very little team efficiency. That simply means that for all of the yardage they would accumulate, there would not be a proper amount of corresponding points from that hard work.

In that story, we detailed the 3 things that make an offense inefficient: Turnovers, 3rd Down conversions, and Red Zone efficiency (how many Touchdowns are you scoring from your red zone trips).

Well, in the 2nd half of the season, the Cowboys have really picked up the pace in those categories. The giveaways from the offense have been under proper control, as Romo has 4 Interceptions in the last 10 games.

But, let's look at the other two that are seldom talked about, but so very important.

On 3rd Downs, the Cowboys through 8 weeks were well below the NFL average on the "money down". At 35.4%, they were down in the bottom third of the league with some of the least productive and talented offenses in all of football. This is an especially frustrating truth as we believe the Cowboys have elite talent at many of the skill positions and should not be underachieving in this department. With all of the weapons on the field at the same time, you would like to think that Garrett and his troops could convert as they should - well above the league average of 38%.

Now, in weeks 9-14, the Cowboys have dominated the money down. Romo threw all 3 of his touchdowns on 3rd Down on Saturday night in Tampa Bay, and after going 34-96 in the first half of the year, the offense has converted 34-73 in the last 6 games. That percentage sits at 47% and has raised the season mark to #11 in the league and at 40%, is now above the league average.

And now, let's update that all-important "red zone efficiency". Back before the Buffalo game, we marveled at the Bills start, but also cautioned people about falling in love with Buffalo because they were converting almost every red zone chance in to 7 points. This stat can cover a large number of faults if every time you make it inside the opposing 20, you leave with 7 points. However, if that well ever dries up, the team's wins will, too.

The Cowboys had a 4-4 record and many of their problems were linked to many yards but then red zone bog-downs at the most important point of the field. Leaving with a field goal will cost you games.

So, let's look at the improvement: Through 8 games, the Cowboys sat at 38% (10-26) in converting those drives into Touchdowns. Given that the league average is 52%, this was maybe the most disconcerting statistic of them all. The Cowboys ranked 31st in the league - higher than only Tampa Bay. Unacceptable.

But, weeks 9-14 have been great in this regard. The Cowboys have been to the red zone 21 times in the 2nd half of the season and have found the end zone 13 times (59%). That type of conversion rate for the entire season would rank them in the Top 5 of the league. They are finally punching in these plays and once again it comes back to the play of Romo in these tight spots, because only 1 team in all of football has fewer rushing TDs from inside the red zone than the Cowboys. Dallas has 4, and Cleveland has just 3.

I do think it is fair to point out that while we do laud Romo's hot streak and the idea that getting all 3 Top WR options on the field at the same time is stressing secondaries, one thing we are not looking at is how the offensive line has improved. They are still a long way from being a strong OL, but they are much improved. In my personal opinion, the replacement of Bill Nagy with Montrae Holland has been one of the more underrated upgrades of the year. Nagy broke his leg in the New England game, and the overall performance of the offensive line has shot up in almost every category since the veteran castaway was plugged in before Game #6.

Now, let's look at the Tampa Bay numbers.

First, the Tony Romo throw chart. Blue shows completions, red are incompletions, and yellow are his 3 touchdowns. As you can see, here, the Touchdowns were all almost identical in the roll right throws.



Data from Week 14 at Tampa Bay

Run-Pass	35-32
1st Down Run-Pass	18-10
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	6.47
2nd Down Run-Pass	15-6
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.61
3rd Down Run-Pass	2-11
3rd Down Conversions	7-13, 54%

HTML Tables

The numbers that jump out at you are the phenomenal jobs on 1st and 3rd Down. Facing an average of 6.47 on 2nd Down is off the charts. Also, the Run/Pass splits are impressive, but those are quite affected by the score at halftime. They did run plenty, but most of it was in the 2nd half, so don't be deceived by that 18-10 run/pass on 1st Down.

Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan.

The Cowboys were 5 run and 5 pass on their drive starters in Tampa, but started with passes on 4 of the first 5. Again, the score affected the balance for the full game. But make no mistake, Jason Garrett came out with great aggression against Tampa - something we have challenged him to do more on the road games where he is usually quite conservative. This was not careful passing, this was downfield passing with attack as the intent.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass
Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass
Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass
Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 9-Buffalo - 10 Drives - 7 Run/3 Pass
Wk 10-At Washington - 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 11-Miami - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 12-At Arizona - 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 13-New York - 12 Drives - 7 Run/5 Pass
Wk 14-At Tampa - 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Total: 158 Drives - 70 Run/88 Pass 44% Run


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.


Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	1	1	1-1	0-0
12	10	95	7-69	3-26
13	1	2	0-0	1-2
21	10	33	5-18	5-15
22	19	78	17-67	2-11
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	3	14	1-1	2-13
S02	1	7	0-0	1-7
S11	22	169	4-6	18-163
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0
Knee	1	0	1-0	0-0
Totals	67	399	35-162	32-267

Table Tutorial

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	1	0	1-0	0-0	1/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	2	13	0-0	2-13	1/1
S02	1	7	0-0	1-7	0/1
S11	9	58	1-1	8-57	3/1
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	13	78	2-1	11-77	4/3

Table Tutorial

3 Touchdowns on 3rd Down? There are not many games during a season where that will happen. Those 3 plays in particular were a thing of beauty from Romo and the offense.

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66
Wk 2 - SF: 32/66
Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62
Wk 4 - Det: 29/75
Wk 5 - NE 31/67
Wk 6 - StL 10/60
Wk 7 - Phi 39/49
Wk 8 - Sea 19/59
Wk 9 - Buf 15/61
Wk 10-Was 24/73
Wk 11-Mia 25/58
Wk 12-Arz 29/67
Wk 13-NYG 28/58
Wk 14-TB 26/67

Total - 358/887 40.3%


==================

Overall, the offense appears to have found its game again in the last 2 performances. The scoring and yardage are both at levels that tell us they are finally seeming to come together.

As we said, the true tests will be ahead, but from a confidence standpoint, it is easy to practice this week knowing that they are locked in pretty well and capable of being efficient and productive.

These are very good signs from the 2nd half of 2011.

And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

Decoding Garrett - Week 13 - Data - NY Giants

This loss is going to hurt for a while. And it starts with the dynamic performance from the offense. You seldom lose games where you have 3 different drives that go 80 yards and score touchdowns each time. Also, you seldom lose when your offense converts on 50% of the 3rd Down opportunities. That 50% (5-10) was the 2nd best game all season in that category, trailing only the spectacular performance against Buffalo.

And you seldom lose when you roll up 445 yards. The Cowboys average 390 yards per game offensively, but usually when they are above 430, they are very tough to beat. San Francisco (473), Detroit (433), St Louis (441), Seattle (442), Buffalo (439), and now, New York (445) all fall in that category. Only the Detroit and New York games were losses, and I think most would agree that the Cowboys played well enough to win those two games. In the case of the Detroit game, they at least could blame turnovers as the difference. But, this contest only featured 1 Cowboys' turnovers, and the teams were even.

When analyzing simply the offense, it is very hard to pick on their performance on Sunday. They put up huge numbers and a huge point total and from an offensive standpoint, that should absolutely be enough to win the game.

Here is a number that might make you sick: Since 1998, the Cowboys have lost only 2 games in which they have scored 34 points. This one, and last year's home game against the New York Giants. That game was lost 41-35, as the Cowboys could not slow down Eli Manning in Arlington. Sound familiar? Sunday, the score was 37-34, and the Cowboys lost again in Arlington to Eli Manning.

Here is another number that might make you equally sick: December 3, 1989, was the last time a Cowboys QB threw for 4 Touchdowns and lost a game. That day, rookie QB Troy Aikman threw for 4 TDs in a 35-31 loss to Jim Everett and the Los Angeles Rams. All time, the Cowboys are 25-6 in those cases. It was Romo's 6th 4 Touchdown game and he had won the first 5.

It appears, from a purely offensive standpoint, that the team has to be prepared to score nearly every possession when they play the Giants. And they did a near-fabulous job. But, they left points on the field in the 4th Quarter with the miss to Austin on 3rd Down and the blocked Field Goal. And as crazy as it seems, that was enough to take the loss. There was almost no margin for error for the offense on Sunday night because the defense was so bad.

It was the 14th time in Dallas Cowboys history they had conceded 500 yards (510) in total offense to their opponent. They have won just 3 of those games.

The Cowboys finally had their full arsenal of weapons present with Miles Austin back into the mix, and the Cowboys looked like a very powerful offense. In fact, their average yards to go on 3rd Down was 2nd best all season long (5.2) to the Seattle game. They still clearly didn't believe in their offensive line holding off the Giants front, but I would not debit Garrett on that. I would say if there is any offensive line in which you better be careful about, it would be the one that knocked your QB out for the season last time they visited. Quick passes, short drops, and don't ask your OL or QB to hold the fort longer than they are capable.

The full arsenal was short-lived as DeMarco Murray was lost for the year, which should trouble just about everyone around this organization. It will be tempting for Garrett to fall back into a majority of "shotgun" snaps with Felix since that seems to be where Jones is more comfortable rather than the under center "21" or "22" runs with a FB. One could certainly imagine the Cowboys not using Fiammetta much with Jones moving forward, based on Felix's extremely short resume of FB success.

Meanwhile, Phil Costa made it 26 snaps before suffering a concussion. Kevin Kowalski replaced him for the final 33 plays and did an admirable job. Again, Garrett was smart not to ask the offense to do too much on a play by play basis.

In summary, some solid results and the offense can take some solace in some great raw numbers. However, there will be enough gnashing of teeth about the missed opportunity to ice the game on the 3rd Down pass to Miles that would have iced the game.

There is only one statistic that matters.

Data from Week 13 vs Giants

Run-Pass	24-35
1st Down Run-Pass	12-18
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.78
2nd Down Run-Pass	10-9
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	5.20
3rd Down Run-Pass	2-8
3rd Down Conversions	5-10, 50%

HTML Tables

Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan.

Notice, again, the trend of believing in the run game. It happens more at home than on the road. It happens early in games more than late. In order to get run game production, you have to give it a chance. And Sunday, they let it breathe a bit and got some decent results. But, with Murray getting hurt, time will tell if they believe in it down the stretch - starting on the road in Tampa Bay.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass
Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass
Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass
Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 9-Buffalo - 10 Drives - 7 Run/3 Pass
Wk 10-At Washington - 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 11-Miami - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 12-At Arizona - 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 13-New York - 12 Drives - 7 Run/5 Pass
Total: 148 Drives - 65 Run/83 Pass 44% Run


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.


Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	0	0	0-0	0-0
12	13	95	8-64	5-31
13	0	0	0-0	0-0
21	13	46	9-39	4-7
22	5	19	4-10	1-9
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S02	6	74	0-0	6-74
S11	22	211	3-26	19-185
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0
Knee	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	59	445	24-139	35-306

Table Tutorial

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	1	3	1-3	0-0	1/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S02	2	70	0-0	2-70	1/0
S11	7	33	1-12	6-31	3/0
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	10	116	2-15	8-101	5/0

Table Tutorial

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

On Sunday Night, we see that the Cowboys went to the shotgun quite a bit again. In fact, percentage wise, 48.3% of the time, the Cowboys were in shotgun. Only the San Francisco game had more shotgun - 48.4% - and you will recall that the Cowboys went to straight shotgun once they fell behind in that game. These numbers are somewhat skewed as Dallas found itself in 2-minute drill in both halves.

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66
Wk 2 - SF: 32/66
Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62
Wk 4 - Det: 29/75
Wk 5 - NE 31/67
Wk 6 - StL 10/60
Wk 7 - Phi 39/49
Wk 8 - Sea 19/59
Wk 9 - Buf 15/61
Wk 10-Was 24/73
Wk 11-Mia 25/58
Wk 12-Arz 29/67
Wk 13-NYG 28/58

Total - 332/820 40.4%


==================

Tomorrow, we shall focus on the snap-by-snap deployment of DeMarcus Ware to try to get answers on why Eli Manning was barely touched in his performance.

And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

Decoding Garrett - Week 12 - Data - At Arizona

In the great basketball movie, "Hoosiers", Coach Norman Dale walked his team of under-dogs into the gigantic field house where the state tournament was going to be held and showed his team how everything might seem bigger, but it is all the same. He measured the height of the basket (10 feet) and the distance to the free throw line (15 feet). Same as in the gym where they play back in Hickory.

I wonder if Jason Garrett has ever seen Hoosiers. Because when you watch his offense over the course of many years now, or in particular his team since he has taken over as coach, you can see a very distinct difference in the way his team operates offensively when they leave their home stadium.

Now, we should concede that the list of home opponents (Washington, Detroit, St Louis, Seattle, Buffalo, and Miami) seems to be a substantial downgrade from the road opponents (New York Jets, San Francisco, New England, Philadelphia, Washington and Arizona) to explain some variations in performance. However, the differences between the home and road game plans are so drastic and frankly, predictable, that one certainly has room to wonder if the Cowboys attempt to call two different game plans.

At home, they are aggressive and determined. Run and pass splits are nearly identical. They often make their opponents choose their poison and then serve it up on a platter. It may not always work, but they are adventurous and creative in the way they go about their business. They will try even trick plays, they will pass when you think run, they will pound the ball until you can stop it, and they have a swagger.

On the road, they are timid. They are easily chased off their objectives. They abandon the run early and often. They put everything on their QB and his ability to make lemonade out of lemons. They seem to call plays in an effort to prevent disasters rather than to attack. They send a message to the troops that they are not sure if they can score points, so they often don't.

And this pattern has been in place for quite a while. Nobody is saying they never bring their home personality on the road, because they do. And sometimes, their road personality shows up in Arlington, too. But, if you look at the large sample under the play-calling of Jason Garrett, it is clear that there is a split in objectives and intentions between home games and road games.

Let's look at some evidence.

The best way a play caller can send a message to his opponent is by calling plays on 1st Down. It establishes the tone and attitude of the offense and declares to the opponent what is planned for the day.

But, when the Cowboys have been at home this season, on 1st and 10, the Cowboys have run 177 plays. The splits for those 177 snaps to start a play sequence has been 98 runs and 79 passes. The 55%/45% split demonstrates proper balance for a balanced offense. On 1st Down, you run the ball more because on 3rd Down, you almost never run. But as a whole, 55% runs on 1st Down will mean that your overall balance will be intact.

Conversely, when the Cowboys have played their 6 games on the road, they have had 172 1st and 10 situations. The splits on 1st Down when they have been on the road has seen just 68 runs and 104 passes. This 39%/61% split on 1st and 10 sets the Cowboys up for days where they never get anything done on the ground and become a 1-dimensional team. We have even heard explanations about the opponent putting an eighth man in the box to encourage the Cowboys to start slinging the ball around the yard.

Given that almost all of the road games have been very tight games and given that we are only looking at 1st and 10, we must ask why the Cowboys can be 55% run at home and 39% run on the road? We understand throwing the ball on 3rd and 12, but why does this team not allow its running game to attempt to find its footing on the road?

And what are the by-products of becoming 1-dimensional and ultra predictable on the road? Let's look at how teams counter the Cowboys when they have chased Dallas out of running plays. The Dallas Cowboys allow the fewest sacks in the NFL in home games. In 203 pass plays at home, Tony Romo has been sacked 5 times or once every 40.6 pass plays.

On the road, the Cowboys have allowed 20 sacks in 6 games (5th worst in the NFL). These 20 sacks have occurred over 254 pass plays for an average of 1 sack every 12.7 pass plays. It seems rather clear that not having balance is making the Cowboys far easier to blitz. And the blitzing beats up your QB and over-runs your offensive line.

Here is evidence that Romo might be playing his best football of his career. In those 6 road games where he has been under siege throughout the game because of the pass rush, Romo has easily the best passer rating of any QB in the league who is getting sacked 3 times a game or more on the road. His rating of 94.1 on the road this season while being sacked so often is off the charts. Only Alex Smith in San Francisco is coming close with a rating of 85.9. You just wonder what they would do if the Cowboys would bring their home game plan on the road with them.

Run the ball, take the steam out of the pass rush. Don't run the ball, invite the blitz. This is very basic football, but the Cowboys consistently do this to themselves on the road. In fact, if you take Sunday's game plan and compare it with the exact game plan from the New England game, you will find that they treated their play calling in the exact same way. The similarities are uncanny.

Data from Week 12 at Arizona

Run-Pass	20-47
1st Down Run-Pass	9-21
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	8.44
2nd Down Run-Pass	9-16
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	6.66
3rd Down Run-Pass	2-10
3rd Down Conversions	4-12, 33%

HTML Tables

Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan.

Notice that 3 1st Down runs are the lowest of the season. The Cowboys started their first 2 drives on Sunday with runs (both 7 yard gains) and then on the final 9 drives, they passed on 1st down 8 times. It is rather befuddling.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass
Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass
Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass
Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 9-Buffalo - 10 Drives - 7 Run/3 Pass
Wk 10-At Washington - 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 11-Miami - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 12-At Arizona - 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Total: 136 Drives - 58 Run/78 Pass 42% Run


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Here, please note the inefficiency of "S12" where they run their shotgun package with 2 TEs. it is clearly not working well, especially on 3rd down where the Cardinals blitzed the house when the Cowboys tried to put Phillips on the field.

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	1	2	1-2	0-0
12	19	124	5-20	14-104
13	7	16	4-7	3-9
21	3	38	2-14	1-24
22	8	41	6-18	2-23
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S02	3	42	0-0	3-42
S11	19	70	1-3	18-67
S12	7	-6	1-8	6--14
Knee	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	67	327	20-72	47-255

Table Tutorial

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	1	2	1-2	0-0	1/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	1	0	0-0	1-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S02	2	15	0-0	2-15	1/0
S11	5	7	1-3	4-4	2/0
S12	3	-7	0-0	3--7	0/0
Totals	12	17	2-5	10-12	4/0

Table Tutorial

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

Again, the similarities to the numbers from the timid game plan in New England is just amazing. They tried for the exact same game even though they were playing a 4-7 Arizona team.

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66
Wk 2 - SF: 32/66
Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62
Wk 4 - Det: 29/75
Wk 5 - NE 31/67
Wk 6 - StL 10/60
Wk 7 - Phi 39/49
Wk 8 - Sea 19/59
Wk 9 - Buf 15/61
Wk 10-Was 24/73
Wk 11-Mia 25/58
Wk 12-Arz 29/67

Total - 304/762 39.9%


==================

Bottom line, the Cowboys have to prove that they are a threat on the road to make you pay. But, instead, they constantly enter the game seemingly content to play for a 16-13 game. They don't wish to change their ways, and now opponents have figured it out. It is time for the Cowboys to self-scout and realize what they are becoming on the road. A very predictable and an easy team to defend.

And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

Decoding Garrett - Week 11 - Data - Miami

Sometimes, one of the most difficult jobs of an NFL offense is to not "beat yourself". This can manifest itself in many ways, but clearly, the best way to stop a drive is with a turnover, penalty, or to allow a sack.

These three possibilities are called "drive killers" or "drive stoppers" in many coaching circles. Drive killers can make a decent drive into a punt. It can make a TD into a FG. It can take a win and turn it into a loss. Drive killers come in many forms, but here are the numbers in the 2010 season for what drive killers can do to an offense.

In 2010, teams scored touchdowns on only 18% of drives that had offensive penalties. Drives that included negative rushes only resulted in TDs on 14% of the time. Sacks? If a drive had a sack, only 7% would then end up in the endzone with 7 points. And, it goes without saying that 0% of drives with turnovers get touchdowns. I don't have the numbers league-wide for 2011, but I believe that most who follow the Cowboys would confirm that sometimes the best defense is an offense that insists on getting in it's on way.

So, on days like Thanksgiving Day, you understand why coaches go on and on about "not beating ourselves" and getting execution clean and precise. It is really difficult to beat your opponent when you are beating yourself.

Let's take a quick look at the 11 drives:

#1 - Drive ends with a Romo interception intended for Bennett.
#2 - Penalty to Free, Penalty to Ogletree, Punt.
#3 - Drive ends with a Romo interception intended for Robinson.
#4 - Cameron Wake Sack, Punt.
#5 - Clean drive stalls for Field Goal.
#6 - Clean drive goes 3 and out.
#7 - 1 play drive for Touchdown.
#8 - Clean drive 3 and out.
#9 - Penalty to Free, Long drive for Touchdown.
#10 - Penalty to Free, Penalty to Smith, Punt.
#11 - Clean drive for game winning Field Goal.

11 drives, 5 were clean (although 1 of those was a 1 play drive from the 5-yard line). If we operate under the theory that any drive that has a blemish has about a 80-90% chance of failure (according to the league stats), we can then see how much pressure you put on those few drives where nothing goes wrong.

The connections between "negatives" (Sacks, penalties, minus rush plays) all mean that you are setting up a 3rd and long. As we discussed last week, 3rd and 10 or more in the NFL is a play that fails 80%+ of the time. So, minus plays set up low-percentage 3rd downs. And the numbers below confirm that 3rd Downs on Thanksgiving Day were near the worst of the season. The season average for 3rd Down distance to go is 7.48 before the Miami game which is near the league average. But, partly due to the Dolphins D and partly due to self-inflicted wounds with false starts and things of that nature, the Cowboys faced 9.55 yards to go on 3rd Down. That is 2nd worse, only the Jets season opener saw a longer distance all season (9.91).

And what are the great effects of this? Well, the Cowboys went 2-9 (22%) on 3rd Down against the Dolphins - their lowest 3rd Down production of 2011. All of these items are related. Self-inflicted wounds don't just hurt that play, they often kill the entire drive. Even a little false start penalty.

Data from Week 11 vs. Miami

Run-Pass	23-35
1st Down Run-Pass	14-14
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.52
2nd Down Run-Pass	8-13
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	9.55
3rd Down Run-Pass	1-8
3rd Down Conversions	2-9, 22%

HTML Tables

Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan.

5 Runs on Drives 2-6. Then, all passes the rest of the game. It is clear that Garrett wished to pound the ball quite a bit on Thursday. But, it was a bad combination that forced him back to the air to get the win late. The ground game was impressive in their resolve, but the results were not great. The lurking issues of the lack of a Fullback reared its head again.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass
Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass
Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass
Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 9-Buffalo - 10 Drives - 7 Run/3 Pass
Wk 10-At Washington - 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 11-Miami - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Total: 125 Drives - 55 Run/70 Pass 44% Run


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

No Tony Fiammetta again means that there is no "21" or "22" personnel available, which then means that the offense will be in some form of "12" or "13" for all plays from under center. "12" personnel ran the ball a bit better and but still averages a mediocre 3.54 yards per carry this season (71 carries for 251 yards). However, "13" personnel - where John Phillips is generally the lead blocker with a shift to FB - the Cowboys remain worse than mediocre and cannot get out of their own way, averaging 2.42 yards per carry (64 carries for 155 yards).

You can see now why Fiammetta or the signing of another FB seem to be on the minds of the people that follow this team. With December and hopefully January looming, 2.42 a carry is not going to get you very far - even with DeMarco Murray.

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	0	0	0-0	0-0
12	19	134	8-37	11-97
13	14	37	11-37	3-0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S02	2	10	0-0	2-10
S11	14	92	2-15	12-77
S12	9	31	2--2	7-33
Knee	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	58	304	23-87	35-217

Table Tutorial

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	1	-1	1--1	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S02	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S11	5	23	0-0	5-23	2/0
S12	3	12	0-0	3-12	0/0
Totals	9	34	1--1	8-35	2/0

Table Tutorial

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

Dallas has been in shotgun 275 occasions this season, and has run the ball out of that 31 times (11%). Most of those runs are on 3rd and long where they just want a handful of yards to allow the punter some room, so there is really no reason for the opponent to scout the Cowboys shotgun running schemes until they show that they will use them. I only remember a few times in the last few years when the Cowboys ran the ball for purpose out of the shotgun.

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66
Wk 2 - SF: 32/66
Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62
Wk 4 - Det: 29/75
Wk 5 - NE 31/67
Wk 6 - StL 10/60
Wk 7 - Phi 39/49
Wk 8 - Sea 19/59
Wk 9 - Buf 15/61
Wk 10-Was 24/73
Wk 11-Mia 25/58

Total - 275/695 42.7%


==================

Overall, it was clear to anyone who was watching the game that Dallas has won the last two contests without the offense playing particularly well. This is a nice problem to have, but it also shows there are problems to be fixed. Moving forward, there will be days where the Cowboys will need 31 points and a sharp performance to find a victory and I assume that is the focus in this extended week off.

They won on Thanksgiving due to 2 drives that were almost completely on the shoulders of their QB in the 4th Quarter. Tomorrow, we will examine maybe one of the finest drives of his career; the drive that resulted in the TD to Robinson in the deep corner of the endzone. A true thing of beauty.

And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

Decoding Garrett - Week 10 - Data - At Washington

The Cowboys won a game Sunday that is tough to fully explain from a statistical standpoint. From a production perspective, they accumulated their 2nd worst yardage day of the year with 354 yards. Only the blowout loss in Philadelphia saw fewer yards (266), while only the loss to Detroit saw more snaps (75). 73 offensive plays and barely 350 yards makes for a very poor 4.84 yards per snap. That would be easily the least efficient day of the season for the offense crew.

And as we saw late, it wasn't like the defense carried the team to victory, either. The defense has the dubious distinction of conceding 166 passing yards to Rex Grossman from the start of the 4th Quarter on. That is certainly not going to make the rest of the NFL take notice, either.

So, why did the Cowboys win on Sunday? And why are they playing winning football overall in the last 3 weeks during this streak?

THIRD DOWN IMPROVEMENTS

Look no further than what is referred to around the NFL as the "Money Down". 3rd Down conversions can either sink a perfectly healthy ship if they are going wrong, or they can pull a team out of a bad spot if they are going right. There is almost nothing an offense does that has more impact than moving the chains when you simply must.

The sample sizes are not large enough in the last 3 games to say definitively that the Cowboys have figured out one of their biggest issues in October and November, but just one check of the 3-4 start versus the 3-0 run they are currently on takes you to this particular metric:

Weeks	3rd Down Conv-Att	Rate - Rank
1-7	28-82	34% - 22nd
8-10	22-43	51% - 2nd

HTML Tables

Just look at those results. The NFL average for 3rd Down conversions of any length is 38%. In 7 games, the Cowboys were sitting just above Washington's offense and just below Denver's as they ranked 22 out of 32 in 3rd Down conversions. A quick look at the bottom teams in the league and their talent levels, and you will quickly notice that it is made up of teams that just do not have the horses to compete. Dallas has no business down in that group. Meanwhile, the best 3rd Down conversion teams in the NFL have QBs named Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Roethlisberger, and Rivers.

Since that trip home from Philadelphia, the Cowboys - albeit in a 3 game sample so it is too early to consider this problem fixed - the Cowboys now are 2nd only to the Packers in moving the chains. And wasn't that the story on Sunday? Yesterday, we discussed at rather great length that the only reason Dallas won was because Tony Romo's 3rd Down play was off the charts late in the game. The Touchdown to Robinson, the TD to Witten, and of course the 3rd and 15 conversion to Bryant in Overtime all testify to this fact.

And how has Romo been in those two stretches of time on 3rd Down? Well, his QB rating in September and October on 3rd Down is under 80 at 79.6. That ranked him below Colt McCoy, Josh Freeman, and Michael Vick for 3rd Down marksman, and miles below the elite QBs. But, since the calendar turned to November, Tony Romo on 3rd Down is 2nd to only one passer in football - Aaron Rodgers. Romo's passer rating during that stretch sits at a near perfect 146.5. Off the charts.

Again, we don't want to over-explain a 3-game sample against 3 poor teams, but if this is a sign of a QB getting fully healthy and an offense finally coming together with a runner, a line that is playing better, and receivers that are starting to figure it out, then the sky could be the limit during the final third of the season.

MISSING FIAMMETTA

It is certainly difficult to imagine back in training camp that the fan base would be depressed with the absence of a player they had never heard of, but knowing that Tony Fiammetta was not available in Washington and likely won't be on Thanksgiving, either, is starting to give everyone pause.

Fiammetta was not in the plans for the Cowboys at fullback, for they felt they were squared away with two other candidates at training camp, Chris Gronkowski and Shaun Chapas, a 7th round pick this past April out of Georgia. But, in camp, neither player was able to justify a roster spot, so around Labor Day, the Cowboys scanned the waiver wire and claimed Fiammetta from Carolina right before the start of the season and cut the other two loose.

Since then, we merely have to look at the following graphic to see how this team runs the ball in "under center" situations with their new FB and without him available:

	Attempts	Yards	Average/Att
W/ Fiammetta	105	744	7.08
W/O Fiammetta	123	372	3.02

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One thing is certain about the Cowboys in 2011 - that their running game changes from week to week. Many have seen these Fiammetta numbers and have properly pointed out that DeMarco Murray's run as the lead runner has coincided with the games Fiammetta has played, and that is mostly true. However, Fiammetta's performance in Week 3 against Washington opened up the lanes for Felix Jones with great success. Also, the game this week at Washington was a game with Murray, but without a fullback, and once again the Cowboys proved they have no back-up plan to Fiammetta where they needed 32 carries to get 89 yards. John Phillips is many things for this team, but lead blocker is not one of them.

Murray is getting 6 yards a carry and Jones is getting 4. Another interesting split is that the team averages 6.2 yards per carry running the ball at home and 3.3 yards per carry on the road. At Cowboys Stadium, the Dallas running game has not had a day under 100 yards. On the road, they have no games over 100 yards.

I would very much enjoy a candid discussion (as opposed to a guarded Jason Garrett in a press conference setting where he tries to say very little) with the Cowboys offensive coaching staff as to their theories on what is working and what is not in running the football, but it sure seems that Fiammetta is the one constant that is required for this team to really run the ball well.

Data from Week 10 at Washington

Run-Pass	32-41
1st Down Run-Pass	16-15
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.33
2nd Down Run-Pass	12-12
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.70
3rd Down Run-Pass	3-14
3rd Down Conversions	8-17, 47%

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Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan.

The Cowboys passed the ball to start nearly every drive. Deceiving because they seldom were downfield passes, but a series of high-percentage passes seemed like the plan of the day. This number factors in 2 kneel downs, also. So in reality, the Cowboys started 10 of 12 drives with a pass play.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass

Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass

Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass

Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass

Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass

Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass

Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass

Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass

Wk 9-Buffalo - 10 Drives - 7 Run/3 Pass

Wk 10-At Washington - 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass

Total: 100 Drives - 50 Run/64 Pass 44% Run


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Here is what we learned yet again. The Cowboys try to cover up the absence of a fullback by putting 3 TE's on the field "13" personnel and lining them up as if they were in "22" - with a TE lined up as FB. The theory is that Phillips is too tall (Fiammetta is 6'0, 242 and Phillips is 6'6, 262) for proper leverage as a lead blocker at the point of attack. If "low man wins" in blocking drills, perhaps there is something to this theory. Regardless, there is a stark contrast in productivity between the FB lead plays when Fiammetta is there versus a tight end. You can see that in the "13" run plays below (17 carries for just 36 yards).

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	0	0	0-0	0-0
12	25	128	11-56	14-72
13	22	54	17-36	5-18
21	0	0	0-0	0-0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S02	2	-4	0-0	2--4
S11	11	50	2-0	9-50
S12	11	126	0-0	11-126
Knee	2	0	2-0	0-0
Totals	73	354	32-92	41-262

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Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	3	11	3-11	0-0	2/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S02	1	-13	0-0	1--13	0/0
S11	9	59	1-1	8-58	2/2
S12	5	102	0-0	5-102	0/0
Totals	18	159	4-12	14-147	6/3

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Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

This game saw the Cowboys seldom in shotgun other than 3rd Down. And as we said, they were doing quite well there.

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66

Wk 2 - SF: 32/66

Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62

Wk 4 - Det: 29/75

Wk 5 - NE 31/67

Wk 6 - StL 10/60

Wk 7 - Phi 39/49

Wk 8 - Sea 19/59

Wk 9 - Buf 15/61

Wk 10-Was 24/73


Total - 250/637 39.2%


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Overall, we would rate the Washington win as part luck (Gano missed a kick to win) and part winning the turnovers and converting key 3rd Downs. Romo saved the day, but you don't want to play like that every week against inferior competition if you want to win the division.

And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

Decoding Garrett - Week 9 - Data - Buffalo

Play calling is one of the more discussed and perhaps misunderstood elements of football. It seems that everyone who enjoys this game fancies themselves as learned play callers and yet just about every coordinator they follow never gets their job quite right. The only play callers that ever seem to get unanimous support are those that happen to have an offense under their command who wins all of the time. Generally, this also coincides with having superior talent and likely a wonderful QB.

Conversely, those who have inferior talent or a QB without experience are labeled as "poor" play callers. Whatever they tried on a given Sunday did not result in a victory, and therefore, to their fan base and media, they obviously called the wrong plays.

It is an exercise in insanity that often includes someone watching a spectacular TD catch by Dez Bryant and telling the person sitting nearby, "See, why don't they do that more often?" You know, call the touchdown play again. If only it were that easy.

Is Jason Garrett calling better plays now? Or, is a running game allowing easier passing attack opportunities? If there was no threat of a running game, would teams play more conservative defense and shade a safety over Dez Bryant? As you watch Green Bay dismantle Minnesota on Monday night football, you wonder if Mike McCarthy is the best play caller in football or does he have the best players? Or both?

In this space each Tuesday, we attempt to discuss the topic of play calling, deploying of the troops, and offensive execution. That includes an array of various items that can be looked at, and we attempt to tackle a different 1 or 2 each week. Then, we show data from that particular game to offer substantive results rather than simple opinions that have no evidence to confirm or deny the findings. Clearly, we are not NFL offensive minds that have resumes that may us candidates for future openings in the league, but by re-watching a game carefully, we can find a number of clues that tell us way more information about a football team than a guarded press conference ever can.

This week, we need to ponder whether the game against Buffalo was won during the week when the coaches sat down to discuss plans of attack. Much like the Eagles did to Dallas 2 weeks prior, the Bills suffered a 1st round knockout. When this happens, you can only look at each team's preparation and whatever the coaches decided on Tuesday in the film room was absolutely right in Dallas and absolutely wrong in Buffalo.

Let's look now at one example: The Cowboys very 1st Drive.

When Jason Garrett starts a game, he wants to get as many personnel groups out onto the field as possible. This practice is not uncommon around the league and generally the reason seems to be to collect photos and information in those first 10-15 plays. Of course, you want to score on those early drives, but you also want to see how the Bills have decided during their week of preparation how they are going to defend certain situations. Against "12" personnel, will they go nickel or dime? When Witten is flexed out as a receiver, will he receive bracket coverage or will they attempt to defend him with a safety straight up? Against "22", will the Bills put 8 or 9 in the box? These findings, often on pictures that are then studied between plays, are then applied for use later in the game. A scenario in the playbook that a coaching staff "wants to come back to" because they believe they have a plan for just that situation. Of course, they then hope that Buffalo doesn't change their strategies later in the game, too. This is the mental chess match that goes on during every game, but we seldom discuss or consider.

Dallas' 1st Drive of the afternoon included 5 plays. In order, they used "21", "22", "12", "S01", and "11" on the 5 plays to go 80 yards for the Touchdown. 5 different personnel groups and used a screen, a FB lead, then a short dump to Witten.

On 3rd and 4 from the 41, the Cowboys used "S01" which is empty backfield, 1 TE and 4 WRs. This puts Jesse Holley back into the mix and on to the field. He played exactly 1 pass play on Sunday and this was that moment. Off the snap, Laurent Robinson is to Holley's outside and runs a quick in route at the sticks. Meanwhile, Holley takes Terence McGee down the seams and McGee believes that Holley is going to stop in a shallow route. Once Holley keeps going, McGee is beaten in a trail position. I think it speaks volumes that Romo is willing to go to a player like Holley when he is never on the field, and he floats a ball where he needs Holley to go get it. When Holley gets his chance he leaps over McGee and helps move the chains with a large 26 yard gain for a 1st down.

The scoring moment in that 1st drive is another play of great beauty. 1st and 10 from the Bills 34, and the Cowboys use a grouping that they seldom go to. "11" personnel - but with Romo under center (11 personnel from the shotgun is what is called "Red Gun" or the Cowboys 3rd down and 2 minute drill package). "11" under center has only been used 13 times in 9 games. But, in this case, Witten is lined up as a fullback, and he will be asked with DeMarco Murray to stay in as a fortified protection ploy as the Cowboys wish to "take a shot" again on 1st down. We loved this concept last week as the Cowboys are now using the 50/50 1st Down for their most aggressive pass attempts because they know that with the new-found balance, the odds are much more in their favor to hit something big (rather than against a dime defense on 3rd Down where safeties lurk for interceptions).

The protection is needed as the Bills are sending a safety. This means that 3 Cowboys WRs will be working against 3 Bills corners and safety George Wilson up top. For Romo, it is a 7-step drop and he needs it all as the rush is closing in up the gut with Phil Costa losing his battle. 5 Bills against 7 Cowboys in pass protection means Romo can set and fire and when he sees Dez Bryant (on a stop and go pattern) against Leodis McKelvin in a 1-on-1 as Wilson cannot get there in time, his mind is made up. Romo sends the pass to the near pylon and Dez has to go over McKelvin to win the ball and save an interception. It was a fantastic play by Bryant and it shows that in this league a QB has to trust his WR to make a play because he is essentially throwing it right where the corner is waiting. But, Dez out leaps McKelvin and the Cowboys finish their 1st drive with a dazzling result.

5 personnel groups, 5 plays, 80 yards, and Romo is 4-4 for 76 yards. And you see how the preparation had the Bills tied up in knots before they even broke a sweat.

Another very interesting finding from our research on Sunday is that the "21" package was strong, but in a whole new way. "21" is what they call "regular" personnel in the Cowboys coaching offices. This is what the Cowboys ran under Norv Turner nearly all the time. Emmitt and Moose behind Aikman, Novacek at TE, and Michael Irvin with Alvin Harper out wide. A few weeks back, we talked about how Tony Fiammetta is helping to bring back "regular" personnel.

The numbers were exceptional. The Cowboys, who had no FB on the roster for several games to start the season, now employ Fiammetta as part of their attack on a routine basis. "21" is the neutral personnel group in the NFL, meaning that there is really not a heavy run package (like "22") and not a heavy pass package (like "11"). The defense has to play "21" straight up, or risk being burned.

For the 1st month with Fiammetta, the Cowboys killed teams with "21" personnel. 17 running plays for 235 yards means they were grabbing an insane 13.8 yards per attempt. Buffalo saw that and clearly purposed on stopping the run when they see "21" on Sunday. And they did. The Cowboys tried 13 run plays out of "21" on Sunday and only accumulated 37 yards. Buffalo wanted to plug up the run on Fiammetta and did a nice job on this personnel grouping. But, at what cost? Well, the Cowboys also threw the ball out of "21" 8 times. On those 8 throws, they found 110 yards - including the 58-yard bomb to Robinson off play action in "21" personnel. The Bills were sitting on the run with Fiammetta and they were burned badly. This is the beauty of balance in your offense. Pick your poison.

Data from Week 9

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

Against the Bills, the Cowboys avoided shotgun because they were in control of the lead. The better you run the ball, the less you depend on Romo in the shotgun against nickel and dime coverages. In other words, the more you have offensive success.

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66

Wk 2 - SF: 32/66

Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62

Wk 4 - Det: 29/75

Wk 5 - NE 31/67

Wk 6 - StL 10/60

Wk 7 - Phi 39/49

Wk 8 - Sea 19/59

Wk 9 - Buf 15/61


Total - 226/564 40.1%

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Here is the Game Data from Week 9:

Big development here. The Cowboys owned 3rd Downs. Romo was dead on and the team saw a conversion rate they seldom see. 8-12 is 67% and a rare awesome week in this category.

Run-Pass	35-26
1st Down Run-Pass	20-10
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.63
2nd Down Run-Pass	12-7
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	6.00
3rd Down Run-Pass	3-9
3rd Down Conversions	8-12, 67%

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Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. Heavy run and then when you least suspect it, a max-protect throw up top.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass

Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass

Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass

Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass

Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass

Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass

Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass

Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass

Wk 9-Buffalo - 10 Drives - 7 Run/3 Pass

Total: 100 Drives - 46 Run/54 Pass 46% Run


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Again, look at the production from under center. And see that the easiest time to throw for an offense is when the defense is sitting run. This is as balanced an offense as we have seen since 2008 when their September performance was a beauty to behold.

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	2	47	1-13	1-34
12	7	41	4-24	3-17
13	0	0	0-0	0-0
21	21	147	13-37	8-110
22	13	90	11-79	2-11
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	1	26	0-0	1-26
S02	2	4	0-0	2-4
S11	10	85	3-15	7-70
S12	2	-1	0-0	2--1
Knee	3	-3	3--3	0-0
Totals	61	168	35-168	26-271

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And now those same numbers on 3rd and 4th Downs. It is clear here that Romo was seeing the game and feeling the coverages with great ease. Dallas can only hope there is more of this coming now that he appears healthy again.

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	1	1	1-1	0-0	1/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	1	26	0-0	1-26	1/0
S02	1	4	0-0	1-4	0/1
S11	9	82	2-12	7-70	5/0
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	12	113	3-13	9-100	7/1

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Overall, this was another successful offensive day. Even the goal-line offense was great. If they can find this performance on a regular basis, they will surely be in the playoffs. Trouble has been playing on the road. Will Romo and Garrett "let it rip" when they go on the road? Sunday will tell us plenty when they head to Washington.

Tomorrow, for our Xs and Os breakdown, we will examine the blitz scheme Rob Ryan threw at the Bills with such success.

And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.