The devil is certainly in the details and the details of the Cowboys offense must improve

 The focus on the media is often what starts conversations in the public. What you read about (or hear) that morning may influence what "is talked about" around the water cooler. It isn't a great system for what wheel gets the grease, but it is the best one we have. The opposite is also true. Maybe, if we, the media, don't talk about something enough, it gets ignored by the masses. Again, not always, but often, if everyone isn't pointing and yelling at something, maybe its concern level remains low.

https://theathletic.com/2779032/2021/08/20/the-devil-is-certainly-in-the-details-and-the-details-of-the-cowboys-offense-must-improve/

Decoding Linehan - Week 4 - New Orleans

I hear the phrase "it has only been ___ weeks" over and over again from the pundits this time of year.  Yes, it is early, and yes, early September excellence is no promise of similar results in December.  We get it.  But, we also know that we can only collect and analyze evidence that exists.  And in 2014, we have 4 weeks of material to dissect and sort through.  The findings are quite interesting from a Dallas Cowboys standpoint.  

As we mentioned yesterday, the Cowboys have run the ball more than anyone (130), they have more yards than anyone (660), which in turn equates to the most yards per game by anyone (165 per).  

But, we did not mention that the Cowboys are 7th in 1st half runs, 2nd in 1st and 10 runs, and 3rd in overall run percentage with 51%.  Yes, their run/pass balance is actually 51/49.  There is no way that is sustainable, but who ever thought we would see this for even 4 weeks?

Here is another one for you to ponder:  The Cowboys are #1 in the NFL through the 1st month in 10-yard runs.  They are also #1 in the NFL in 20-yard runs, but since there are so few of those, I like the volume of numbers that separate the league in the 10-yard category.  

Here is a chart that shows how bad the Cowboys have been at this category over the last 4 seasons.  Basically, while the average NFL team has about 195 10 yard runs, the Cowboys have 152 from 2010-2013.  That shortfall of 43 is substantial and demonstrative of a team that simply was so discouraged by its own running situation that they almost stopped trying altogether.

Well, the investment in the offensive line is proving to be an amazing development that is making everything better.  The Cowboys are already using Play Action at a rate that is off the charts for a Jason Garrett/Tony Romo offense, and that only works over the long haul if you have a proper run threat that is troubling the defensive brain trust.

Well, look above at that blue line.  I included 2014 (the green line in 2014 is the PROJECTED league average only), even though it is an obvious misrepresentation of the season because THEY HAVE ONLY PLAYED 4 GAMES!  That is right, the blue line is almost already at the 2012 level, and is well beyond half way to 2011 and 2013.  Can they keep up this pace?  Who knows.  But, even if they don't, they will destroy pretty much every year on this chart by simply playing league average the rest of the way in.  

Incredible.

Here is a play that can't wait until Xs and Os Thursday.  This might be the best example of the Cowboys zone running dominance we have seen so far.  It also reminds you that DeMarco is great and all, BUT, he is also running without getting touched quite a bit.  Which, is what you love to see.  This play is certainly the stuff that coaching clinics are made of:

The whole objective of the zone blocking scheme is to create a seam.  However, the defense plays a role in selecting the seam.  You move them (often laterally) and when one of them breaks their form, you use it against him and turn block him from the play.  In this case, Ronald Leary does it to #94 - Cameron Jordan.  Then, Tyron mows out 93-Galette with a small amount of assistance from Witten.

That leaves the combo block with Frederick and Martin on the Nose tackle.  If you notice, the combo block is not because Martin cannot handle the block on his own.  Rather, it is done by Frederick to allow Martin a chance to step over and get leverage that he didn't have at the snap.  If Martin tries to block 95-Deaderick without Frederick's help, the angles are wrong.  So Travis pops him back towards Martin, then once Martin is in position, Frederick leaves to go clean up #50-Lofton at the 2nd level.  You seriously cannot do it better than this.

The first time Murray is actually touched is at the 7 yard line - 21 yards down the field.  And as this area high school coach tweeted me, it is perfect.  

Offensive Participation: In this game, the perfect attendance of the 7 who are "always on the field" continued: Smith-Leary-Frederick-Martin-Free-Witten-Romo.  They are each now 277 for 277 on the season.  If that continues, the team success is bound to continue as well.  Next up are Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray, and Terrance Williams playing most of the rest of the snaps.  So, that generally leaves 1 spot that is swapped between Cole Beasley, Gavin Escobar, and James Hanna from play to play.  Lance Dunbar and Joseph Randle combine to play 10 snaps and try to give Murray a brief spell.  Otherwise, this is an offense that has had great health and they certainly hope to keep it that way.  All snap numbers courtesy of PFF and they include all snaps including plays that were not official because of penalties.


STATS FOR WEEK 4 AGAINST NEW ORLEANS

Run Plays	32
Pass Plays	30
Avg Starting Position	D31
1st Down R-P	19-10
2nd Down Avg to Go	7.00
2nd Down R-P	8-12
3rd Down Avg to Go	5.53
3rd/4th Down R-P	5-8
3rd Down Conversions	8-13, 61%
4th Down Conversions	0-0
Yards Per Play	7.1
Yards Per Pass Attempt	8.3
Red Zone TDs - Drives	3-3, 100%
Giveaways	0

I realize that sometimes on these blogs I don't spend enough time telling you what "good" is and I need to improve upon that.  Today, let's spend a moment on the Average yards to go on 2nd Down.  Last week, I said that the Cowboys had a nice low number on Average yards to go and someone was shocked to hear that averaging 6.1 on 3rd was actually very good.  It is.  

So, allow me to say that on 2nd Down, the NFL generally averages about 7.9 yards to go.  Now, keep in mind, it is because of all of the penalties and sacks and so forth that often make that number go up, but 7.9 or 8.0 is usually the number at the end of the season.  So, the Cowboys again were at 7.0 this week, which means that they were way ahead of the chains and for the season have a 7.16 average yards to go on 2nd down which ranks them 5th in the NFL - and 2nd in the league for the best "2nd and 6 or less" percentage at 47%.  Again, these are fantastic developments.

PASSING CHART

This season, we're attempting to track both passing and drive progression. John Daigle has designed a fantastic chart.  Each color, for instance, represents the possession number listed in the key. If you were to start from the bottom and work your way up, you would be tracking that possession from beginning to end. The dotted-lines are incompletions. Large gaps between throws are mostly YAC or carries.

Week 4 Summary

Whether "statement" and "momentum" drives actually exist is topic for another day. For now, follow along the light blue possession.

DRIVE STARTERS - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -

Wk 1 - San Francisco: 5 Run/5 Pass - 50% Run
Wk 2 - At Tennessee: 8 Run/3 Pass - 72% Run
Wk 3 - At St. Louis: 7 Run/2 Pass - 77% Run
Wk 4 - New Orleans: 9 Run/2 Pass - 81% Run

2014 Total: 32 Drives - 29 Run/12 Pass - 70% Run


Wow.  Look at these numbers compared to the last 3 years!

2013 Total: 176 Drives - 84 Run/92 Pass - 47% Run
2012 Total: 173 Drives - 76 Run/97 Pass - 44% Run
2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass - 44% Run

* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives.

SHOTGUN SNAPS

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated.

Wk 1 - San Francisco: 41 Shotgun/63 Total Plays - 65% Shotgun
Wk 2 - At Tennessee: 30 Shotgun/76 Total Plays - 39% Shotgun
Wk 3 - At St. Louis: 26 Shotgun/50 Total Plays - 52% Shotgun
Wk 4 - New Orleans: 26 Shotgun/62 Total Plays - 41% Shotgun

2014 Total: 123 Shotgun/251 Total Plays - 49% Shotgun

Here is a reader tweet on this very topic:

Again, it helps to have a massive lead (vs Tenn and vs NO), but there is clearly intent to how the Cowboys are lining up and trying to maul you physically.

Below are the season totals for past seasons, but thru 4 games in 2013, the Cowboys were at 61% with 151 shotgun snaps out of 246 total.  This year, they are at 123/251.  So, easy math there, in 2014 they have had 5 more opportunities, but have been in shotgun 28 fewer times!  Pinch me.  They finally are running an offense I have been campaigning for since Terrell Owens was on the team!

2013 Total: 566/945 - 59.8% Shotgun
2012 Total: 565/1038 - 54% Shotgun
2011 Total: 445/1012 - 43.9% Shotgun

TOTALS BY PERSONNEL GROUPS


(Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.)

Package	Plays	Yds	Run	Pass	3rd/4th	Yds	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	10	69	9-45	1-24	1	3	1-3	0-0	1/0
12	22	137	15-85	7-52	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	3	19	3-19	0-0	1	5	1-5	0-0	1/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
23	1	2	1-2	0-0	1	2	1-2	0-0	1/0
S01	4	24	1-3	3-21	1	3	1-3	0-0	0/0
S02	1	6	0-0	1-6	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S11	17	139	3-38	14-101	7	55	1-21	6-34	4/0
S12	3	35	0-0	3-35	2	27	0-0	2-27	0/1
S13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Other	1	12	0-0	1-12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	62	443	32-192	30-251	13	95	5-34	8-61	7/1

* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.

So much dedication to balance and variety that there is almost nothing to complain about.  It puts me in an odd position.

PLAY-ACTION PERFORMANCE

Wk 1: 1/5, 9 Yds, 3 INT, 1 FD
Wk 2: 4/5, 39 Yds, 1 Sack, 2 FD
Wk 3: 3/3, 88 Yds, 1 TD, 2 FD
Wk 4: 6/8, 76 Yds, 1 TD, 4 FD

2014 Total: 14/21, 212 Yds, 2 TD, 3 INT, 1 Sack, 9 FD

In review, look at the Week 1 totals, then take only the last three weeks into account: 13/16, 203 Yds, 2 TD, I Sack, 8 FD.  Amazing.  I wrote a long piece in August about the Cowboys and the Run/Play Action Passing combo, and it might be worthy of checking again if you get the chance.  It is really something how things clicked in the final 6 games of last year and they have kept going.  The epiphany of the New Orleans humiliation last November and the bye week would be an amazing story to hear Jason Garrett tell some day.

BLITZING ROMO

Pass Rushers Against Dallas - 32 Pass Situations vs New Orleans

With Rob Ryan, it is never how often he blitzes (you will notice his blitz rate isn't shockingly high), it is how many he sends when he does blitz.  He loves the big blitz with 6 and 7!  Dangerous and deadly all at the same time.  And Romo burned him on his own stove.

Wk 1: SF Blitzed Dallas 1/40 - Blitzed 2.5%
Wk 2: Tenn Blitzed Dallas 12/33 - Blitzed 36.3%
Wk 3: STL Blitzed Dallas 11/23 - Blitzed 47.8%
Wk 4: NO Blitzed Dallas 11/32 - Blitzed 34.3%

2014 Total: Opponents Blitzed Dallas 35/128 - Blitzed 27%
2013 Total: Opponents Blitzed Dallas 210/616 - Blitzed 34%

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush	Totals
1st Down	1 - 10%	5 - 50%	1 - 10%	3 - 30%	10 - 33%
2nd Down	1 - 9%	7 - 63%	2 - 18%	1 - 9%	11 - 36%
3rd Down	0	7 - 77%	2 - 22%	0	9 - 30%
4th Down	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	2 - 6%	19 - 63%	5 - 16%	4 - 13%	30

*These totals do not include the two instances New Orleans blitzed seven rushers.

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush	Totals
1st Down	4 - 9%	28 - 68%	5 - 12%	4 - 9%	41 - 32.5%
2nd Down	7 - 14%	29 - 61%	8 - 17%	3 - 6%	47 - 37%
3rd Down	3 - 7%	22 - 57%	10 - 26%	3 - 7%	38 - 30%
4th Down	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	14 - 11%	79 - 62%	23 - 18%	10 - 7%	126

Thanks to John Daigle for his work on the charts and graphs.

SUMMARY:  Forgive me, but in the interest of time, I did not spend too much time on Tony Romo this week.  In short, he was very, very good.  He diagnosed blitzes, he made throws, he did not risk interceptions, and overall he was absolutely the type of player that looks like a QB1 capable of leading his team to a division win.

Of course, there is so much more in that equation, but if your QB is at that level (and not nursing a back injury that is ending his career) then my fears of the last several months are quieting down.  This was not the case after SF and Tenn, but these last 2 weeks have been "Top Shelf Romo".

If he is going to do that, and if the zone blocking is going to do what we saw above, and the tactical decisions made by the man with the call sheet are going to remain on point, and if the health continues....the sky is absolutely the limit for this offense.

I believe that they finally came to grips with the idea that they are not best suited for the Saints/Packers/Patriots template (and by the way, those teams are not as suited for it as they once were, either).  Rather, the physical pounding style of Seattle or San Francisco which starts with a huge and powerful line, a running game that is unforgiving, and then when you adjust to deal with it, the aerial attack begins against a lesser-popualated secondary.

It is physical, smash-mouth, toll-taking football and it wins in this league - in any era.  It took us a while to get here and it won't always be sunny mornings and pretty flowers, but for now, you can absolutely see that the league is noticing some things on film that are going on down in Dallas.

You are not relying on 1 guy to carry you.  You are relying on 6 guys up front.  And then, the next wave is a QB with lots of weapons.  It protects your defense and it wears out your opponent.  And if you study this offense over the course of many years, you know I am not always feeling this cheery about the Cowboys offense.  But, I must confess, I haven't been this optimistic about the possibilities in a long time.  The pieces are finally falling in place.

Let's see how the league responds.  

Decoding Callahan - Week 15 - Green Bay - The #1 Ranked Running Game

Once again, looking at the offense for the Green Bay game is going to be similar to the Chicago contest in many respects.  Lots of good things were done here, but the current circumstances of the entire team require for near perfection from the offense to balance out the defensive futility.  This happens around the league and through NFL history.  One side of the ball is significantly better than the other and is asked to shoulder way more of the burden.  Sometimes, it has even been resulted in a Super Bowl title, but that requires 2 things:  1) the inferior side of the ball to not be so inferior that they are asking the superior side to make up miles and miles of space.  and 2) the superior side of the ball is really good at playing near perfect football.

The 2013 Dallas Cowboys do not seem set up for that task on either side, as the defense is now at or below all-time historic lows and is showing no signs of a recovery.  Meanwhile, the offense, despite overall improvement as this year is going on and demonstrating versatility and some power to their overall punch is unable to play perfectly enough to bring home games where they are not receiving much help.

Now, we should certainly separate the New Orleans and Chicago blowouts from games like Sunday against a Green Bay team that had no Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb, or Jermichael Finley.  They weren't the Green Bay JV, but with a 23 point halftime lead, there is simply no justification for that game not being in the win column.  We can rationalize and sympathize all we want and still know that this one is not able to be explained away.

Much of what frustrates any observers is the idea that this team is able to run the ball much better than even the Cowboys think.  Here is a passage from a story from Bob McGinn, who covers the Packers for the Milwaukee Journal:

Still, there wouldn't have been enough possessions for the Packers to mount their inspired comeback if coach Jason Garrett and Bill Callahan, his play-calling offensive coordinator, had given the ball more to Murray. 

"Oh, my God," nose tackle Ryan Pickett said. "It's the best zone scheme in the league. They say it's old, the Wisconsin scheme. 

"The last four weeks, nobody could stop it — their zone scheme. And they gave up on it. We're just happy they did. We were, like, 'OK, we'll take it.'" 

Dallas (7-7) ran Murray 18 times, and he averaged 7.4 in gaining 134 yards. By comparison, the Cowboys had 51 dropbacks, a 26.1% rushing rate that was much lower than their low 13-game mark of 35.9%. 

"We watched (Murray) last week with the coaches and we said, 'This guy is the real deal,'" Pickett added. "He's tough, fast and so deceptively strong. He's one of the most underrated backs." 

Granted, Green Bay's defense was there to be taken early. With no pass rush whatsoever, you could forgive Garrett/Callahan for passing early to get the lead because Tony Romo had all day. 

But not to run a gifted back such as Murray, and thereby allow his effective offensive line to settle accounts and protect the miserable defense, bordered on criminal in the NFL. 

"That's just who they are," cornerback Tramon Williams said. "They run the ball really well against everybody they play, but they just never stick with it."

Wow.  It really appears the Packers are far more impressed with the Cowboys running game than the Cowboys were.  Now, we shouldn't take opinions from emotional football players in a winning locker-room who might be subject to hyperbole and dramatic effect.  But, what if they are right?  What if Ryan Pickett is serious when he say that the only thing that has stopped the Cowboys offense in the last month is the Cowboys lack of taking their car out of the garage?  What if the coaching staff is going with dated material from an era when the Cowboys could not run the ball to save their life and suddenly, that is no longer accurate?

So, I started trying to apply numbers to check their opinions with math.  Were the Cowboys running the ball really well and many of us (at least me) too bothered by 2010-2012 that we are not seeing slow growth - almost like your child growing and you don't notice but grandma sees it better because she sees the child less.

I went back to Thanksgiving.  Then, I went all the way back to the day that DeMarco Murray rejoined the team in time for the Minnesota game on November 3.  So, what did I find?  Well, from the start of November until this Green Bay game, where do you think the Cowboys rank in yards per attempt?

How about #1 in the NFL?

(Thanks to Stats, Inc)

And look.  #1 by quite a bit.  They are running the ball with great success and yet over that same stretch, let us now sort by attempts per game:

32nd in the league.  How Jason Garrett is that?  We realize that more carries will lower the average - most likely - but, come on.  This is crazy.

You do something well and you still don't care to do it.  So, I have heard from several people who look at this and are not convinced of anything.  Look at the teams that are running well - those aren't the best teams in the league.  And you are right.  I am not here to argue that rushing yards per game means that you win a lot.  This is merely a discussion about how the Cowboys can win more games by using their common sense and figuring out how to further assist a poor defense by keeping them off the field.

I am here to report that the idea the Cowboys don't run because they can't run is incorrect information if we update results.  And it mirrors what we have seen below in our tracking of personnel groups.  It is not aided by garbage time or 3rd and 15 draws.  The Cowboys are lining up and running the ball with great success since DeMarco has come back.

Starting with the Minnesota game, we have seen the same OL for each game, too.  Brian Waters played his last game in Detroit and since then, it has been LT Tyron Smith, LG Ron Leary, C Travis Frederick, RG Mackenzy Bernadeau, and RT Doug Free.  They are inconsistent in pass protection (aside from Smith), but as a group they really look like they have figured out the zone blocking scheme with fantastic effectiveness.  And do not underestimate Frederick, who is a rookie, but comes from Wisconsin where this is all they do when running the ball.   He is teaching the course and playing very well - but he is not alone.

Also, it is exactly what this team has needed to shorten the game with a defense that you cannot put back on the field.  Which is why we are continuously confused with the play selection where they seem to be applying dated material that argues they simply cannot run the ball and the clock.

From ONLY runs under center - to eliminate the idea that these are garbage runs on 3rd and long draw plays that throw off the average, here are the numbers from just 11, 12, 13, 21, 22, and 23 personnel groups:

2013:

Since Nov 1:
74 attempts - 486 yards - average 6.57

Before Nov 1:
63 attempts - 270 yards - average 4.28

2012:

287 attempts - 1072 yards - average 3.73

2011:

342 attempts - 1584 yards - average 4.62

Do they know this?  The team is not inept at running anymore.  At least in this arbitrary sample size that is growing each week.

=====

I am going to combine this week's Xs and Os into this entry because I cannot wait 2 more days to dissect this:

So, this is the first play of the final drive.  You might recognize the personnel grouping and the formation because it is the same exact look as the fateful 2nd and 6 that was 4 plays later.

This is a play that has been looked at and universally agreed that while risky, if Romo puts a bit more on this pass, Dez has Shields beaten and this is 80-yard Touchdown kill shot.  Not a bad idea at all, just under thrown which is still not a bad option because Dez usually wins all jump balls.  But, I wanted you to look at the formation and look at James Hanna get over to Clay Matthews who is over Tyron Smith.  Also, watch the line and Murray zone run right.  This is important to see how Clay is sitting on the run here and runs right into Hanna.  He is going to run Murray down from the back side.

Look at everything selling run right and Romo kept and played his 1 on 1 game with Dez deep.  This looks familiar right?

And here is why, below.  But, remember, Dez is unavailable for this play on 2nd and 6.  Miles will step in for him:

So, we have looked at this from every angle.  Cleary, the first thing here is to run the clock and don't throw at all.  I cannot really make a case against that a day later.

From yesterday's blog:

Green Bay again shows 11 up close to the line.  The Cowboys have a prepackaged play which is supposed to be a zone right to Murray which will, at worst, cause Green Bay to use its final timeout and at best get a 1st Down and kill the game.  Instead, because of no safeties deep, Romo switches to a 1 on 1 battle to Miles Austin (remember where Dez was?) on the backside.  Why?  Because he assumed the run wasn't going anywhere and subconsciously knew what happens if they punt with 2:00 to go against a Packers offense that had 4 touchdowns on 4 possessions in that half.  I am not saying he was right to make this decision, but if you look at it from that perspective, it at least is understandable logic.

So, Romo opts to a pass on a play where nobody but Austin and Romo know it is a pass, and as Romo is supposed to be throwing the ball, Austin's slow release opens on the slant just as an unblocked Clay Matthews arrives on Romo's lap.  Romo amazingly eludes him, but, now the play is off schedule and Romo regathers and throws late and behind Austin.  This brings the speedy Sam Shields back into the play and before you can blink, the ball has been turned over at the worst possible minute. 

This is where things get murky.  Yes, Romo opted out of a run play, but only because the play is designed to give the QB the responsibility to diagnose the defense first.  If this happened at any other portion of the game, it is called running the offense.  But, at that point, you need to know how vital clock management is.  You need to realize that two runs take the ball to 2:00 at least.  But, if you punt at 2:00, does Green Bay still score from their own 20?

The real issue is the throw was poor and missed where you simply cannot miss. 

But, one last point.  Look how Romo tells Escobar to stay right just before the snap (Escobar has motion as an option if Romo wants it, but Romo knows to motion Escobar will tell the Packers that the run right is off).  Then, look how Clay Matthews - just fooled by this exact look 4 plays ago - decided not to worry about Murray and go straight for Romo.  How Romo made him miss is magical, but look how quickly the Packers recover.  I said yesterday that maybe he should have run, but if he does, he isn't going anywhere.

A better throw is a Touchdown.  But, that doesn't mean anything now.


STATS FOR WEEK 15 against GREEN BAY

Run-Pass	18-51
Starting Field Position	D27
1st Down Run-Pass	13-24
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	6.65
2nd Down Run-Pass	3-20
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	10.33
3rd/4th Down Run-Pass	0-9
3rd Down Conversions	2-9, 22%

PASSING CHARTS:

Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.  Intern Tim has made some pleasing to the eye charts for us to see.

Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.

1ST HALF PASSING CHART -  (Red incomplete, Blue Completion, Yellow TD, Black INT)

2ND HALF PASSING CHART -  (Red incomplete, Blue Completion, Yellow TD, Black INT)

As you can see, the 2nd half was more blitzing and therefore more short routes.  Interesting difference in the 2 halves and their spray charts:

Dez Bryant Passing Chart -  (Red incomplete, Blue Completion, Yellow TD, Black INT)

17 targets.  That is a lot.  

Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -

Wk 1 - New York Giants: 5 Run/7 Pass - 42% Run
Wk 2 - Kansas City Chiefs: 3 Run/9 Pass - 25% Run
Wk 3 - St. Louis Rams: 8 Run/2 Pass - 80% Run
Wk 4 - San Diego Chargers: 6 Run/4 Pass - 60% Run
Wk 5 - Denver Broncos: 3 Run/8 Pass - 37% Run
Wk 6 - Washington Redskins: 5 Run/4 Pass - 55% Run
Wk 7 - Philadelphia Eagles: 5 Run/9 Pass - 35% Run
Wk 8 - Detroit Lions: 9 Run/5 Pass - 64% Run
Wk 9 - Minnesota Vikings: 2 Run/8 Pass - 20% Run
Wk 10 - New Orleans Saints: 6 Run/5 Pass - 54% Run
Wk 12 - New York Giants: 6 Run/5 Pass - 54% Run
Wk 13 - Oakland Raiders: 7 Run/3 Pass - 70% Run
Wk 14 - Chicago Bears: 5 Run/3 Pass - 62% Run
Wk 15 - Green Bay Packers: 4 Run/8 Pass - 33.3% Run

2013 Totals: 110 Drives - 74 Run/80 Pass - 48% Run
* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives.

2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass - 44% Run
2012 Total: 173 Drives - 76 Run/97 Pass - 44% Run


SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated.

More of Garrett trying to keep the Cowboys balanced and sound, but that clearly got out of hand with 2:00 to go in the half.

Wk 1 - NYG: 44 Shotgun/71 Total Plays - 61.9%
Wk 2 - at KC: 46 Shotgun/60 Total Plays - 76.6%
Wk 3 - STL: 28 Shotgun/59 Total Plays - 47.4%
Wk 4 - at SD: 33 Shotgun/56 Total Plays - 58.9%
Wk 5 - DEN: 39 Shotgun/54 Total Plays - 72.2%
Wk 6 - WASH: 23 Shotgun/50 Total Plays - 46%
Wk 7 - at PHI: 53 Shotgun/73 Total Plays - 72.6%
Wk 8 - at DET: 33 Shotgun/55 Total Plays - 60%
Wk 9 - MIN: 50 Shotgun/63 Total Plays - 79.3%
Wk 10 - at NO: 27 Shotgun/43 Total Plays - 62.3%
Wk 12 - at NYG: 32 Shotgun/60 Total Plays - 53.3%
Wk 13 - OAK: 33 Shotgun/63 Total Plays - 52.3%
Wk 14 - at CHI: 22 Shotgun/54 Total Plays - 40.7%
Wk 15 - GB: 35 Shotgun/69 Total Plays - 50.7%

Season Total - 498 Shotgun/830 Total Plays - 56.5%

2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%
2012 Total - 565/1038 54%

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

And now, a look at the efficiency of each personnel grouping.

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	6	55	4-13	2-42
12	18	144	6-48	12-96
13	1	0	0-0	1-0
21	8	61	7-61	1-0
22	1	0	0-0	1-0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	6	17	0-0	6-17
S02	0	0	0-0	0-0
S11	25	160	1-6	24-154
S12	3	15	0-0	3-15
S13	0	0	0-0	0-0
Other	1	6	0-0	1-6
Totals	69	458	18-128	51-330

* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	1	6	0-0	1-6	1/1
13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	3	0	0-0	3-0	1/0
S02	1	6	0-0	1-6	0/0
S11	3	2	0-0	3-2	0/0
S12	2	0	0-0	2-0	0/0
Other	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	10	14	0-0	10-14	2/1

Pass Rushers Against Dallas - 51 Pass Situations vs Green Bay Packers

Wk 1: NY Blitzed 13/49: 26%
Wk 2: KC Blitzed 19/46: 41%
Wk 3: STL Blitzed 10/25: 40%
Wk 4: SD Blitzed 8/41: 19%
Wk 5: DEN Blitzed 10/40 25%
Wk 6: WAS Blitzed 17/31 55%
Wk 7: PHI Blitzed  22/48 46%
Wk 8: DET Blitzed 9/31  29%
Wk 9: MIN Blitzed 9/54  17%
Wk 10: NO Blitzed 3/27  11%
Wk 12: NYG Blitzed 10/43 23%
Wk 13: OAK Blitzed 16/33 48%
Wk 14: CHI Blitzed 11/27 41%
Wk 15: GB Blitzed 20/51 39%

Season Blitz rate vs Dallas 177/546: 32%

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	0	1	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	14	8	0
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	1	0	0
Totals	0	15	9	0

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	1	2	3	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	8	2	1
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	1	0	0
Totals	1	11	5	1

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	2	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	1	3	0
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	1	2	0
Totals	0	4	5	0

SEASON TO DATE

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush	7 Rush
1st Down	13 - 5%	150 - 67%	51 - 22%	7 - 3%	1 - 1%
2nd Down	11 - 5%	119 - 62%	49 - 25%	11 - 5%	0-0
3rd Down	10 - 7%	68 - 50%	48 - 35%	7 - 5%	1 - 1%
4th Down	0	0	0-0	1 - 100%	0-0
Totals	34 - 6%	337 - 61%	148 - 27%	26 - 4%	2 - 1%

Thanks to John Daigle and Tim Krajewski for their work on the charts and graphs.

=====

SUMMARY:  So, here we are again.  The offense played very well and still lost.  The numbers are out there where teams should never score 36 and lose, but now Dallas has done it twice.  They are playing better, but not close to perfect and not managing the clock worth a hoot.

But, they are getting a solid year from their offensive line and are now able to line up and run the football.  They have not run this well since 2009 and they need to figure this out quickly to deal with Jim Haslett and his blitzes that terrorize the Cowboys offense over the years.

Meanwhile, Dez and the weapons found all sorts of opportunities down the field against a poor Green Bay defense and rolled up stats despite facing a ton of blitzes.  That won't change.

What must change is the continued poor 3rd Down play.  The Cowboys have converted the 32nd most 3rd Downs this season (56) and by far the fewest on the road (23).  This ability may decide their season which amazingly, is still completely salvageable.

Just win.  And to win, the offense is going to have to do the heavy lifting, because Bob Lilly and Doomsday is not walking through that door.  

Decoding Callahan: Week 9 - Minnesota - Negative Runs Lead To No Runs

"9 times?" Pause. "9 times."

Yes, 9 times is how many times the Cowboys attempted to run the ball in 63 snaps on Sunday against the Vikings.

Not only is that a league-low (tied with Baltimore at Buffalo on September 29), but it is a franchise-low in team history.  No other time had a Cowboys team ever run that few rushing plays in a game.  Ever.

That is really remarkable.  It makes you think the Cowboys must have been playing against the Steel Curtain, right?  But, then, the Vikings had given up 182 yards on the ground in 42 carries by Green Bay just one week prior.  And only one time in 2013 did a Vikings opponent NOT attempt 21 or more carries and only twice (NYG and PIT) did they not gain 100 yards rushing against Minnesota.  The Vikings have a strong defensive front, but to suggest that they are extraordinary is a real stretch.

And yet, with the return of DeMarco Murray, the Cowboys elected to try a few runs - even gash the Vikings for a 27 yard dash, and then inexplicably, decide to not run again for most of the afternoon.

And they elected to do this, despite common sense seeming to dictate that the best way to defeat Adrian Peterson is to actually keep him on the sideline.  Instead, the Cowboys surrendered the largest time of possession that the Vikings had all season long (31:27) just one week after they had a season low (19:06).

This sends us back down the road of believing that the Cowboys offensive brain-trust has minimal trust in its own ability to run the football and can be chased off the idea quite easily and swiftly early in a game.  We have discussed this quite a bit in this space over the years that the people that fear the Cowboys running game the most are the Cowboys themselves, and even the slightest hint of failure chases them off the plan altogether and they scrap it.

How much did losing Brian Waters have to do with this?  Possibly, quite a bit.  It would seem that the recipe against Minnesota was to use a running game to loosen up the secondary and make play-action far more affective when there is even a small chance that you might actually hand the ball off.  We have seen this play out plenty over the years.  The Cowboys get very little off play-action (and stop using it altogether) because the linebackers and safeties are not convinced.  In fact, we need to look at some plays and decide if the defense knows that when you play the Cowboys, if you can demoralize them early with a few run blitzes, they will stop altogether and get into a pass-exclusive offense the rest of the day and you can simply focus on that.

So, if the Cowboys only tried to run the ball in conventional situations about 4 times all day, we can actually look at the TFLs (Tackles for loss) and see why the Cowboys decided they had enough and wanted to go almost exclusive shotgun and give the running game the rest of the day off.

Play #1 - 1st play of 1st Drive

Here is a zone stretch left.  Everyone has a man in their assignment, but it does get complicated when former Cowboys safety Andrew Sendejo walks down into the path of where they play is headed.  This changes James Hanna's job from helping to seal off Jared Allen to grabbing a dive-bombing Sendejo and leaves Dez to get his cornerback and Ronald Leary to get to the linebacker at the 2nd level.

Right at the snap, Jared Allen starts driving Tyron Smith backwards as if he is a tight end.  This is certainly not going to help the play develop if Tyron cannot regain his leverage.  Now, Hanna sees he doesn't have time to help on Allen, and now sees his issue with the safety Sendejo sniffing out this play and heading north.  Dez sees the issue and looks to assist.  But, here come the crashing linebackers, too.   This is running against 8-man fronts.  Too many bodies to help on blocks.

Tyron is now back to the 18 as Demarco gets the ball.  Sendejo is now splitting Hanna and Dez at the 20.  Those 2 are destroying this play.  What is Murray supposed to do here?  He will try to get wide to the edge, but there is the corner now in full sprint, too.

Now that Dez is laying in the running lane, you can see that the castle has been stormed.  Tyron is back to the 17 now, and Murray has less than a chance to do anything with this.

He turns it upfield to make it only a 2-yard loss, but this play was a disaster, despite 72-Frederick and 65-Leary doing a good job getting to their spots.  Hanna and Smith were simply obliterated and the safety shooting down says the Vikings knew what the Cowboys like to do on 1st and 10 to start a drive.

Play #2 - 1st Play of Drive #2

Here is the inside run off the run/pass option we have seen a million times with Witten playing the lead FB in this scenario.  Romo can opt for a quick pass up to Williams if he chooses, but they are going to use Dunbar on an inside run here on 1st and 10 and see what can be accomplished.  Unfortunately for them, Minnesota is sending a corner blitz here and that means that all of the Vikings are slanting to their right.  It is a rather unconventional idea on 1st and 10 in the 1st Quarter, but the Vikings are going to not allow the Cowboys to ground and pound this thing.  They are going to challenge them until they get burned.

On these plays, it is customary for the tackles to turn the defensive ends upfield and let them think they are winning to the edges and then the RB runs right past them.  But, with the DE cutting across Doug Free's face to the inside, you can see that Free is already reaching and won't be able to get much done there.  Meanwhile, the blitzing corner is Harris' job to impede, and he did not have leverage at the snap (he would have had to false start) and therefore is losing there, too.  Tyron is pushing Jared Allen right out of the play like he is supposed to, but Free is losing up top.  Meanwhile, Leary is also not expecting the DT 98-Letroy Guion to cross his face to the outside, but he does.  Witten is planning on heading north in the A-gap between Frederick and Leary, but Leary's recovery is going to take him and Witten into the same spot, making everything worse below.

Look at all the red above at the moment of handoff.  Dunbar sees purple at 3 spots in front of him before he gets the ball.  Witten's lead block has now cut off Leary, leaving big Guion with nobody between him and Dunbar.  Free is losing and Harris has lost.  We have another mess.

Look now as he gets the ball, he has 3 Vikings on him 4 yards behind the line.  The Vikings are rewarded for calling a blitz right into a Cowboys run and again, it is a mass or purple at the ball.

So, these 2 plays started the first two drives and lost yards.  They set up 2nd and 12 and 2nd and 13and pretty much killed any chance of getting rolling.  The Cowboys then stopped running for the rest of the day aside from short yardage, a few shotgun handoffs, and a scramble or two.

Give the Vikings credit for being aggressive and demoralizing any ideas the Cowboys had of getting the run game healthy, but also question the Cowboys for just throwing up their hands and not even going back to it at all.  I have always thought that the best way to do anything is to emphasize it.  Yet, this coaching staff has proven that if it is difficult early, they will scrap it.  Does that show any resolve to your team or your opponent?  Is it something you believe in, or not?

Clearly not.  Looking at Bill Callahan's track record in Oakland, he is not the guy to fix that determination level as he historically is ripped for abandoning the run all the time back in those days with the Raiders.

Is it imperative to run the ball to win?  We can debate that.  But, this team has been out of balance for almost the entire Garrett coaching run and they are 31st in the NFL in rushing plays in the 1st half of games (34%) and 29th overall (33%), and the entire time have been criticized for having an underperforming offense that seems to underachieve.  Are the two things related?  And if so, is the best way to improve to scrap it any time it doesn't work right away?  That hardly speaks to a determination to fix it.

STATS FOR WEEK 9 VS MINNESOTA

Run-Pass	9-54
Starting Field Position	D24
1st Down Run-Pass	3-25
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	8.47
2nd Down Run-Pass	3-18
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	8.71
3rd/4th Down Run-Pass	3-11
3rd Down Conversions	4-14, 28%

PASSING CHARTS:

Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.  Intern Tim has made some pleasing to the eye charts for us to see.

Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.

1ST HALF PASSING CHART -  (Red incomplete, Blue Completion, Yellow TD, Black INT)

The blue lines are almost completely underneath.  This remains the issue against defenses that challenge the Cowboys in that when Dallas tries to pass them out of that aggressive posture, it is usually low-pain punishments in the form of short passes.  Most defenses will live with that.

2ND HALF PASSING CHART -  (Red incomplete, Blue Completion, Yellow TD, Black INT)

Much better in the 2nd half in trying to get Minnesota to back off and keep plays alive. 

Jason Witten Passing Chart -  (Red incomplete, Blue Completion, Yellow TD, Black INT)

Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -

In Detroit, they really wanted to run the ball and open coverage up.  Didn't work, but the idea is sound and the commitment was there as they started drive after drive with a running play and showed faith in the OL.  A season high 9 drives started with a run.  Then, against Minnesota, they opened with 2 drives on the ground and those were the two we showed above.  Then, it was over for the day.  The Vikings had chased them off their plan.

Wk 1 - New York Giants: 5 Run/7 Pass - 42% Run
Wk 2 - Kansas City Chiefs: 3 Run/9 Pass - 25% Run
Wk 3 - St. Louis Rams: 8 Run/2 Pass - 80% Run
Wk 4 - San Diego Chargers: 6 Run/4 Pass - 60% Run
Wk 5 - Denver Broncos: 3 Run/8 Pass - 37% Run
Wk 6 - Washington Redskins: 5 Run/4 Pass - 55% Run
Wk 7 - Philadelphia Eagles: 5 Run/9 Pass - 35% Run
Wk 8 - Detroit Lions: 9 Run/5 Pass - 64% Run
Wk 9 - Minnesota Vikings: 2 Run/8 Pass - 20% Run

2013 Totals: 88 Drives - 46 Run/56 Pass - 45% Run
* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives.

2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass - 44% Run
2012 Total: 173 Drives - 76 Run/97 Pass - 44% Run


SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated.

As you can see, this offense is getting more and more shotgun based, so if you have dreams of lining up and mauling the opponent, that isn't in the cards.

Wk 1 - NYG: 44 Shotgun/71 Total Plays - 61.9%
Wk 2 - at KC: 46 Shotgun/60 Total Plays - 76.6%
Wk 3 - STL: 28 Shotgun/59 Total Plays - 47.4%
Wk 4 - at SD: 33 Shotgun/56 Total Plays - 58.9%
Wk 5 - DEN: 39 Shotgun/54 Total Plays - 72.2%
Wk 6 - WASH: 23 Shotgun/50 Total Plays - 46%
Wk 7 - at PHI: 53 Shotgun/73 Total Plays - 72.6%
Wk 8 - at DET: 33 Shotgun/55 Total Plays - 60%
Wk 9 - MIN: 50 Shotgun/63 Total Plays - 79.3%

Season Total - 349 Shotgun/541 Total Plays - 64.5%

2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%
2012 Total - 565/1038 54%

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

And now, a look at the efficiency of each personnel grouping.

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

OK, below you will see the issues of being "too predictable".  22 plays from under center, 18 runs/4 passes.  33 plays from shotgun, 26 passes/7 runs with several of the runs being scrambles.

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	4	19	3-19	1-0
12	7	39	2-1	5-38
13	0	0	0-0	0-0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0
23	2	7	2-7	0-0
S01	9	89	0-0	9-89
S02	8	3	0-0	8-3
S11	22	118	1-3	21-115
S12	11	75	1-8	10-67
S13	0	0	0-0	0-0
Other	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	63	350	9-38	54-312

* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.


Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
23	2	7	2-7	0-0	1/0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S02	3	0	0-0	3-0	0/0
S11	6	44	0-0	6-44	3/0
S12	3	3	1-8	2- -5	1/0
Other	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	14	54	3-15	11-39	5/0

Pass Rushers Against Dallas - 54 pass rush/blitz situations in Week 9:

As you can see, Detroit and Minnesota are not teams that believe in blitzing.  New Orleans, on the other hand, should bring pressure this week quite a bit.

Wk 1: NY Blitzed 13/49: 26%
Wk 2: KC Blitzed 19/46: 41%
Wk 3: STL Blitzed 10/25: 40%
Wk 4: SD Blitzed 8/41: 19%
Wk 5: DEN Blitzed 10/40 25%
Wk 6: WAS Blitzed 17/31 55%
Wk 7: PHI Blitzed  22/48 46%
Wk 8: DET Blitzed 9/31  29%
Wk 9: MIN Blitzed 9/54  17%

Season Blitz rate vs Dallas 117/365: 32%

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	0	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	2	17	3	1
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	2	0	0
Totals	2	19	3	1

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	2	4	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	4	3	0
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	4	1	0
Totals	2	12	4	0

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	2	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	1	3	1	0
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	5	0	0
Totals	1	10	1	0

SEASON TO DATE

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush	7 Rush
1st Down	13 - 8%	94 - 63%	36 - 24%	5 - 3%	0-0
2nd Down	8 - 6%	82 - 63%	33 - 25%	7 - 5%	0-0
3rd Down	6 - 6%	48 - 54%	30 - 34%	3 - 3%	1 - 1%
4th Down	0	0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Totals	27 - 7%	224 - 61%	99 - 27%	15 - 4%	1 - 1%

Thanks to John Daigle and Tim Krajewski for their work on the charts and graphs.

=====

SUMMARY:  It is important to not lose sight of the accomplishment of a late-game situation where the offense and the QB had to be near perfect to get that game in the win column.  They did just that and are trying to figure this thing out again.  But, for yet another year in a row, this offensive line is somewhere between substandard and average, with the QB and the coaching staff not asking it to do too much in the running game and getting the ball out quick in the passing game.  They are not interested in putting their QB in harm's way much nor are they interested in waiting on the running game to figure things out with live ammunition.

At some point, a coach has to decide whether he is going to try to focus more on the big picture or the situation that is right on the table at this moment.  Jason Garrett is not in a position to worry about the big picture in most people's opinion, and therefore, it is difficult to blame him when it comes down to choosing between idealism and realism as it pertains to his offense.  He has to be realistic and understand that for better or worse, this offense relies on its QB to make enough plays over the course o 10 drives to give his team a real shot at winning.  7 of the 9 games he has done that, and therefore, you continue down the path and do the best you can.

The running game is broken and don't expect it to improve until the emphasis comes from the top in the form of top investment on draft day and free agency, and that doesn't look like it is happening anytime soon.  Until then, look for 75% shotgun and asking the OL to pass protect and your QB to keep plays alive.  It is the Jason Garrett/Tony Romo offense and while it is frustrating at times, it is the best shot they have.  Luckily, they invested heavily in more weapons in the offseason to keep his options at a high level, and now it is up to them to figure out 3rd Down conversions in the face of the blitzes.

That final drive (expect a full breakdown on Thursday) was exclusively S01 (Bryant, Williams, Harris, Beasley, and Witten) with an empty backfield.  Spread 'em out and pick 'em apart.  They believe it is their best option, so we should all get used to it for at least the balance of 2013.