Always the horses, seldom the jockey...
Daily Commentary on the Dallas Sports Scene - By Bob Sturm - Sportsradio 1310, The Ticket - The Athletic Dallas - The Athletic - Bob Sturm
One of the most surprising discoveries for Cowboys fans this season must be the revelation that this coaching staff has provided a clear and obvious advantage most weeks.
Now, there is no way to say that without sounding offensive and condescending to some very wise football men. But hopefully they can understand the cynicism after a 2015 season where they seemed to have almost no answers for the questions that were being asked of them.
The job Scott Linehan has done with the offense has been as top notch as any Cowboys offense in recent memory. Combined with the job Rod Marinelli continues to do with his rather anonymous personnel on the defensive side of the ball, the Cowboys appear well-coordinated and organized. Then, Jason Garrett ties it together with some rather uncharacteristic ruthlessness and aggressiveness.
Linehan could not make heads or tails of his challenging personnel issues last year and the offense could not execute on even the most basic levels. Garrett then reacted to this and reeled in everything to a level of conservatism that made Cowboys games slightly less entertaining than the peeling of paint. Marinelli’s squad fought hard but ultimately collapsed under the pressure late in games.
By the end, it seemed that a side with less patience might decide that the coaching staff required a major overhaul and that fresh eyes might do better in charge of this roster.
But, to the credit of all involved, the boss himself did not even think of changing his coach. This is notable because, to be honest, very few head coaches get to their seventh season without anything more to show for it than a solitary Wild Card win in year five (to be fair, the fourth full year).
So the coaches and the front office went to work. And to their credit, they worked feverishly to conceive of some plans that would withstand the potential of attrition once again offering major changes. Football is a game of attrition. Injuries will occur. You will lose important pieces. So, any design that requires the presence of Tony Romo and otherwise would collapse without him is a poor design as Romo tried to begin his second decade under center. They had to begin to plan for life without him. Surely they had time, but it was speeding in their direction.
It turned out they didn’t have time. Romo was hurt immediately.
Week after week in 2016 -- all without Romo, most without Dez Bryant -- this offense has been characterized by its design. It has base plays that are effective. It then has change-ups off that design that have been impressive. Now, with things like last week when they showed several new ideas, they showed change-ups off the change-ups. Same formations, same pre-snap movements, but then as many as four or five different options are executed off the same look. Most offenses have this in theory. Scott Linehan has demonstrated they will use them all on game day, and the opposing defenses have looked overwhelmed.
Oh, and all with a rookie QB who required almost no investment to acquire. And a rookie RB who has already fulfilled the incredibly high level of promise that preceded him.
That is the story here in the bye week.
Not that this team has a QB controversy or a surprising start, but that this team is consistently outcoaching its opponent. With the same staff that was looking pretty feeble last fall.
Chances are they are the same coaches as they ever were. But, now, things have finally come together to let them prove it here.
Patience appears to be paying off for the Cowboys.
There is no question the theme of 2015 is clear. Tony Romo was hurt (Dez Bryant, too) and that caused the incredibly unlikely drop from 12-4 to 4-12 in one season. From near the top of the league to near the bottom of the league in just a few short months.
There is really no denying this truth, although the overall reasons for the fall extend further than that, and that many a franchise has been able to sustain an injury to QB1 without a full collapse. They may not still be a Super Bowl contender, but they then are either able to make the playoffs or at least contend. In truth, this team was likely eliminated from the playoffs by Week 8, despite being mathematically alive much longer. Their ability to respond and react to adversity (or lack thereof) will likely be the lasting memory many of us have. Even in 2010 when Romo was lost for the year in October and the team went to 1-7, they played competitive football - and won several games - down the stretch to give you the impression that they weren't completely helpless without their leader.
This team, on the other hand, did look helpless in games without Tony Romo. The final tally is pretty airtight. In games started by Tony Romo, the team went 3-1. In games not started by Romo, the team went 1-11. By that measure, with a $150 million salary cap, you can see that his 2016 cap hit of almost $21 million may leave him horribly underpaid. It is tough to envision many teams going from 79% win percentage with Romo (since start of 2014, Romo's regular season record in starts is 15-4), and a 8% win percentage without him (1-12 since start of 2014).
Perhaps he should be paid $100 million a season if he is that valuable. I challenge anyone to find anything close to that split in NFL history. I am sure it exists, but nothing comes quickly to mind to demonstrate how dearly a franchise depends on this one human. Carson Palmer with the Cardinals in 2014 and 2015 is 19-3 as a starter and then the team is 5-5 when he is not there. Peyton Manning with the Colts was 24-8 his last 2 years and then the year he missed they were 2-14. This certainly speaks to the idea that QB's should often be credited with wins. I know this is a conversation that can lead to a physical altercation in some circles, but it certainly does seem like an unassailable truth with Tony Romo. He is the reason this team wins football games.
You could look at that from 2 angles. 1) he is great and should be recognized as such and 2) the team did a horrible job preparing, coaching, playing, and designing anything in his absence. He is great, but to argue he is the best in his line of work would get you laughed at. Those teams with Brady, Brees, Manning, Rodgers, etc, all have had to play games without their QB and make the team competitive. This team seems to have failed at that on a routine basis as we now can go all the way back to 2006 and see that in the Tony Romo era, the team is 7-20 all time when he can't start. If the standard is trying to go 2-2 when your QB misses a month, then they are falling beyond short of that .500 standard. They barely get to 25% win percentage without their guy.
Here are some numbers from this year, where Romo's numbers were never very good, actually. When he did play in November, "he didn't look right" and was trying to manage the game through whatever he was dealing with - which clearly, we found out, was a collarbone that was not really healed.
Anyway, with Sunday's very nice performance from Kellen Moore, we can now look at the 2015 Cowboys offensive numbers in their complete form. Unfortunately, there is almost no proper way to analyze the offense from a large view because there is almost no large view to be had. Just smaller fragmented views of tiny samples. Romo with Randle, Weeden with Randle and Dunbar, but no Bryant, Cassel with McFadden, but no Dunbar and a hurt Bryant, Romo with McFadden and Bryant, Cassel again, and then Kellen Moore with no Bryant. How do you break down 2015 as a whole?
I don't think you really can. Here is the overall statistical view of the QB position this year:
QB
Snaps
Comp
Att
%
Yds
YPA
TD
INT
QB Rate
Team
975
334
528
63.3
3677
6.96
16
22
76.6
Romo
221
83
121
68.6
884
7.31
5
7
79.4
Weeden
197
71
98
72.4
738
7.53
2
2
92.1
Cassel
398
119
204
58.3
1276
6.25
5
7
70.6
Moore
159
61
104
58.7
779
7.49
4
6
71.0
Clearly, as has been pointed out repeatedly by the Oklahoma State fanbase, Brandon Weeden is the tallest short person in the room. He had very pedestrian numbers and performances (Capt Checkdown), but compared to his 3 colleagues, one would have to admit that he scored the highest marks for QB efficiency and performance. That is not really a compliment for a guy who engineered 2 touchdowns during his last 26 offensive drives, but more of an insult to the overall play at the position the rest of 2015.
If you would like to see the QB production by percentages from each of the 4 forgettable performances, you could look at from this perspective:
QB
Snaps
Comp
Att
Yds
TD
INT
Team
975
334
528
3677
16
22
Romo
23%
25%
23%
24%
31%
32%
Weeden
20%
21%
19%
20%
13%
9%
Cassel
41%
36%
39%
35%
31%
32%
Moore
16%
18%
20%
21%
25%
27%
From this view, you can see that aside from a few poor interceptions, the guy to consider useful moving forward might be Kellen Moore. His numbers on Sunday were largely hollow as he did not compile any stats of note until the team was down 24-0 and the Redskins certainly went it to a far more causal approach with their defending of the receivers. Not attempting to slight Moore's day because I actually rate him higher than most people - but I do want people to be realistic about seeing him pass for 435 yards and 9 yards per attempt (which was easily the biggest day in either category in 2015 for any Cowboys QB). Much of it was because of the unique situation of the game being a laugher from the moment it started.
WEEKLY DATA - WEEK 17 - WASH
That said, some of these numbers are fun to examine as the Cowboys did march up and down the field with great ease for much of the day. If anyone on this planet started Kellen Moore in their fantasy football championship game, they will never soon forget it.
Unfortunately, as the Cowboys will do from week to week, they were way too generous with the ball again, matching their season high (at NYG and NYJ) with 4 giveaways.
Clearly, the question with Moore moving forward is to wonder if you can get the good from his game without the 2 throws where he totally doesn't see the coverage that is about to intercept a pass that he thinks is there. Again, he is not the first QB to have to deal with this conundrum, but at his height and with his arm, he is going to be scored harshly when he throws a slant that isn't there on the goal-line.
KELLEN MOORE THROW CHART
Again, he uses a big part of the field and they were killing the Redskins coverage with that "5" route that is a sideline out with a comeback. I think Terrance Williams caught that pass a half dozen times on the right sideline (as the dots indicate).
Williams, of course, had his own career day with 8 catches for 173 yards which will prop up his so/so 2015 and offer him career highs in both catches in a game and of course yards. In fact, the Denver game in his rookie year was his only other 100 yard day. We still don't know what to make of the Baylor WR after 3 seasons, and as it works, he heads into his contract year next fall.
PERSONNEL GROUPINGS - WEEK 17
There isn't much to study here as the game was barely a Quarter old when the Cowboys threw the gameplan in the trash and pretty much played 11 personnel the rest of the way and tried to throw their way back into the game with the straight 2-minute drill offense.
Again, Moore in this environment isn't too bad and looks the part of a competent backup QB in my view. He is confident in his reads and delivers the ball where it needs to go on a somewhat frequent basis.
If they do go QB in the 1st Round, I am fine with making that kid the #3 and Moore the #2 if he passes all of his tests in the offseason, which I am sure he will.
PERSONNEL GROUPINGS - SEASON TOTALS
We will break these down and talk them out as the offseason permits, but for now, if you want to look things over on your own with your calculator, here is the entire season mosaic.
REDSKINS PASS RUSH
SEASON BLITZ TOTALS
This is somewhat interesting in that if you look at the season totals, you will find that the Cowboys actually faced fewer blitzes. Perhaps the idea that the best way to deal with a mediocre QB is to drop 7 into zones and make him try to find an opening - especially without Dez Bryant ever being fully fit to cause consternation on the opponent's scouting report.
SEASON TOTALS - PASS RUSHERS BY DOWN
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
Like I said at the top, it is really difficult to analyze this game or this season with any sort of useful data that can teach us anything because it is like we just watched 4-6 different "mini seasons" and the results of all of them were ranging between brutally bad and passably mediocre. Nothing this team did as a whole this season when it had the ball was close to acceptable.
What is interesting is that they did run the ball reasonably well at times and they did pass protect pretty well all year. But the sum totals of those accomplishments were barely perceptible as we pointed out yesterday:
One year after scoring 467 points in the 2014 season (29.2 points per game) and making offense look easy and simple, the team scored only 275 (17.2 ppg). Now, you can say that is all Romo and Dez Bryant, but to give you an idea of just how bad 275 points is in a season, the year Jon Kitna played QB for 9 games and Stephen McGee 1 more, the team scored 394 (24.6 ppg). They could never, ever score this season. It was just too impossible to accomplish actually accumulating points.
The offense gave the ball away 33 times which is something that reminded us of the Quincy Carter/Dave Campo era which was roughly the last time the Cowboys would average 2 giveaways per game for an entire season. If you want to look at one of the main reasons why a team can't score points, look no further than 33 giveaways and a fair amount of those (including on Sunday) occurring right when you are on the verge of gathering points down on the attacking end of the field.
Speaking of Carter/Campo, this year's 3rd down offense was the worst since 2001 and 2002. They converted just 66 of 191 3rd downs (34.6%) which was the worst year the Cowboys have had since those two 5-11 seasons. All of this, of course, the year after the Cowboys appeared to have 3rd downs figured out as well as any team in football when they converted 95 of 201 (47.3%) and were near the top of the league.
There is much to sort out. There is much to study. But as a fan, the only thing you should be anxious to do is to put 2015 in your rearview mirror.
Special thanks to John Daigle for assisting all year with the charts and the data. It is always very helpful to have him on board.
We are not done, but this is the last regular season weekly Tuesday "Linehan Report" of the year. Thanks for following along. Like the Cowboys, we have plenty to do in the offseason.
On Tuesdays, we attempt to exhaustively break down the offense, both the objectives and the performance in carrying out these game-plan objectives in the latest Cowboys game.
Unfortunately, since we do this exercise each and every game - regardless of who is on the field for the Cowboys - we must do some autopsies of some pretty ugly corpses, and the 2nd half performance of the team against the Falcons was quite ugly on both sides of the ball. We will get to the defense and their issues tomorrow, but the offense did not get it done by any stretch of the imagination after the half.
That, of course, presents the retort, "if you score 28 with a backup QB, that ought to be enough to win the game." Nobody debates that. Of course, four touchdowns from a Brandon Weeden-led offense should be enough to win the game. But, each game is different and the circumstance change with it. If, for instance, the Cowboys could have managed just 5 first downs in the 2nd half (2 more than they had, 3 more than they had before garbage time), it might have been enough to keep the defense off the field slightly longer. They were out-snapped by a healthy 37-19 margin in the 2nd half, and as we know, a tired defense cannot stop anyone. With the injuries the Cowboys defense had, they were thin in the Front 7. Well, this is where the offense needed to offer a helping hand. The defense held the Falcons down pretty well in the first 7 drives. But, gave up touchdowns on each of the last 3. Perhaps the time of possession beat-down bill came due. The levee broke. And with it, so did the Cowboys chance to win the game.
And that comes back to the offense. And more specifically, the offensive line.
We would call the total of 347 yards of total offense to be in the "acceptable" zone (below 320 is unacceptable, 321-399 is considered acceptable, 400+ exceptional), and the 28 points would also fulfill the pregame goals. If you offered 347 yards and 28 points without the benefit of any significant defensive or special teams contributions, you would have taken it.
But, 52 yards in the 2nd half, 3 first downs, and 0 points would have to be considered beyond unacceptable for the 2nd half. And that is where this train went off the tracks.
This will lead us back down the road of adjustments. What alterations were there to the game plan as the game developed? For the Falcons, it was to dedicate more up front to sit on the Cowboys zone stretch plays. There is no doubt the Falcons have an aggressive posture to their defense and play in that Seattle Cover 3 with the safety down in the box on a regular basis. This means that the 1st down plan was going to run into some very stiff fronts which were going to swarm to the edges.
Meanwhile, based on the throws from Brandon Weeden in the first half, the throws were all underneath. Only 3 of his 14 1st half throws were to Wide Receivers, and those were all under to Cole Beasley. The field was shrinking. The Falcons knew this and became even more attack-oriented.
This takes us to two concepts that must be presented on a day like today.
1) - Unless the defense feels vulnerability over the top, you are going to be running into fronts that are loaded and aggressive. You simply have to back the linebackers and safeties off with the occasional flirtation with something behind them. The Cowboys were really unable to do that all day. It was 100% in front of them at all times.
2) - Unless the offensive line plays at the top of their game, you cannot have success running into fronts that have no hesitancy about your intentions.
They called 5 run plays in the 2nd half and totaled negative-four yards. Horrendous.
And the simple reality is this - through 3 weeks, the offensive line has not played to its abilities.
If everything is built around the fact that this offensive line is so good that you can put any Running Back back there, then we are going to hold them to a higher standard than what we have seen in these 3 weeks. It is easier to blame a backup QB than it is to ask your 1st round picks what their deal is, but the fact is there have been too many blown blocks and penalties from this group to be throwing roses at their feet when the offense has stuttered in September. Sure, Dez Bryant and Tony Romo would be a great quick fix, but if everything in this offense is built on the strong foundation of this front, then let's see it.
Here are a few examples of the disappointing showing from the OL:
1st play of the 2nd half, zone stretch right - 12:35, 3Q:
Frontside, Doug Free just can't get his helmet around 50-Schofield. If Free can finish his man to the inside, there is something here. But, if the edge is not going to be secured, then we start to look for a cut-back lane. The trouble is that there is no real cut-back lane until late in the play. Frederick is getting pushed back by 95-Babineaux, not leaving much room for Randle. Not sure where he is supposed to go here. The Falcons are crowding the line.
7:05, 3Q. Here is the next zone stretch. 72-Travis Frederick and 70-Zack Martin are over-run here. 71-La'el Collins is assuming 96-Soliai is on Frederick, because he cannot reach him. Frederick is hoping Collins has him because he is looking to go get the LB. Meanwhile, 97-Jarrett knows what play is running and he beats Martin to the spot. Now, you are Joe Randle. What do you see. What is your plan? It looks like the front side has promise, but there is nothing here. The OL is not blocking this well.
3Q, 4:39. Well, the zone plays aren't working. Let's try some man-blocking. How about a pulling block from Martin with a FB running behind him to open up something to the edge?
This play is blocked. When Randle gets to the hash, everything looks fine. But, 54-Stupar, gets off the block from Martin, then gets off of Clutts, and then makes the tackle? Meanwhile, Doug Free has no leverage against the Middle LB 55-Worrilow and is about to hold him if he doesn't let him go. So, a play that was fine is now a disaster. Again, what is Randle supposed to do with this? If Free gets his block and Martin gets his, then Clutts can go get the safety and this play goes. It isn't close. Negative play.
One more critical moment that has nothing to do with Weeden or even Randle.
3rd and 3, 10:04 4Q. Cowboys go empty and depend on their front 5 to give Weeden a chance to move the chains. And here, Vic Beasley beats Tyron Smith.
It is 3rd and 3. You have to give Cole Beasley a chance to run his option route. This cannot be a sack. Unfortunately, the wrong Beasley makes a play here.
So, there you go. Just 4 plays from that 2nd half and I think we named every lineman as having a bust. This is the Falcons defense, not the Seahawks. This isn't going to work.
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DATA - WEEK 3 - ATLANTA
Here you can see some very confusing numbers. They had 7 yards per play and 8 yards per pass. That is good enough and numbers Romo will get. Yet, they converted 1 3rd down and only had 52 2nd half yards. They scored on every red zone possession and yet were shutout in the 2nd half.
This is why sometimes statistics are only good if you look at them in the proper context. I think the Cowboys were productive for sure, but the Falcons just waited them out, saw what the Cowboys were doing - and more importantly, not doing - and decided to adjust and bet on the idea the Cowboys could not keep up with them.
They were right.
Below, please find the Brandon Weeden throw chart.
You will recall that last time he played, Weeden barely threw one ball to the left. He is as right-sided a QB as you can imagine. This usually stems from pocket presence and the feeling that the QB is uncomfortable and cannot maintain a downfield eye level if he scans the field to his blindside.
You might agree that Weeden never looks comfortable in the pocket. That is why he is throwing the ball quick and short so often. Now look at this throws. The two "deep" shots were the interception - that he only threw long by accident - and the seam he sailed to Witten. The Wide Receivers were props.
Was this by command or QB decision? In the end, it doesn't matter. The Falcons knew the WRs were just running routes and by the end of the game, the WRs were just going through the motions. In 2 games, Weeden has not thrown a downfield pass of substance to the left. He hasn't thrown downfield at all. This is "Check-Down Charlie".
Combine all of this and you can see that if the run blocking is not good enough and the Cowboys are not interested in stretching the field out, this is the offense for a bit. Troubling.
Here is the offensive production out of personnel groupings. As you can see, the Cowboys did line up a Fullback and broke a big one out of 21 and out of 12 on the ground. Both of those offered promise for a fun afternoon. But, is the predictability of the Cowboys offense right now completely based on the alignment of the QB?
In Week 3, if the QB was under center, they ran 85% of the time (17 of 20). If the QB was in shotgun, they passed 86% of the time (25 of 29). They really might need to make sure that they are not giving away tendencies like this. Weeden is not good enough to offer the Romo treatment to the opponent. You are going to have to cross up more tendencies and pass out of run looks, while running out of pass set-ups.
PASS RUSHERS
As you can see, Atlanta was not worried about bringing pressure. They seldom did, doing so on just 3 of 27 pass occasions. They were playing coverage and trying to force Weeden into constant check-downs.
The number one thought is that if you are only getting 4 in a rush, then it seems that there is time for routes to develop down the field. This takes us back to the question about WR routes. Are they getting open? And does it even matter if the Cowboys are trying to run an offense where the WRs are not an option for the QB to even look at?
And if so, are we suggesting that even a WR screen to get them going is a bad idea?
The following are simple screen shots - like the team gets on the sideline - of a play a few seconds after the snap. In other words, when Weeden is throwing the ball, here is a look at the field. Now, this is NOT to suggest that the circled WR is a better option, but rather an argument that perhaps if you attempted to use these weapons, you at least back off the defense a bit. It is a slide show, so scroll through the pictures (courtesy of @TC1310). Are they wide open? Not all of the time, but most pictures show a guy who is "NFL Open" (open by NFL standards). Even if you don't want him to take chances, out-routes and comebacks are pretty standard for any NFL-employed QB.
CONCLUSIONS
We can sit here and blame Brandon Weeden for being a backup QB, but that seems silly. We can even blame Devin Street for not being Dez Bryant. But, we knew when these injuries occurred that it would be mandatory for those who remain to put together top-shelf efforts for the team to withstand those injuries.
And after sifting through a lot of the evidence, it seems that this Week 3 performance required the offensive line to be way better. If you add Jason Witten and Tyler Clutts to the offensive line as the run blocking unit, they are responsible for way too many penalties and blown blocks in the last few weeks. On top of that, Zack Martin might have played his worse game in Philadelphia and Travis Frederick might have played his worst game against the Falcons. Tyron Smith gave up a sack at the very worst time and Doug Free has been rather mediocre.
None of this has much to do with who plays left guard, but Collins, Bernadeau, or Leary should all be the 5th best of the 5 linemen.
Let's not kid ourselves. Matt Cassel is not the answer and neither is Brice Butler. They need to put the game in New Orleans on the OL. Make them pass protect long enough to attempt a pass to a WR that isn't a quick slant. Make them run block those zone stretches at 100%. Put the onus on the OL to be what they are said to be - one of the best in the business.
If they deliver, perfect. If they don't, then a lot of people wasted a lot of time praising them in the past year. The play-calling has to call for the OL to stand up. If Weeden gets over-run in the pocket, then it happens, but they have to stretch the field. You could argue the interception started with Frederick getting collapsed right into the QB. You could put the disastrous runs in the 2nd half on Randle and make "meat on the bone" jokes all day. But, simply put, those plays weren't blocked well enough.
I cannot remember ever being frustrated at the offense when they scored 28 points with a backup QB and WR, but I think that 2nd half was beyond poor and while Weeden and play-calling is blamed, I might argue after examining the tape that Linehan did what he should have done. He called plays to eat the clock, keep Julio off the field, and sustain drives behind the "Great Wall of Dallas". He called his bread and butter offense and the OL was beaten. He was beaten with his best pitch. It is tough to blame Linehan for that.
