Rafael Vela:So, what's on your draft-addled mind this morning?
Bob Sturm: Thanks for the time this morning. Plenty to discuss since we last talked. Well, initial thoughts on the events of the NFL Draft, as it pertains to the Cowboys, of course
Rafael Vela: Like the front and the back. I'm thinking over day two, which gave a lot of people some indigestion, judging from comments, and post-draft grades.
Bob Sturm: Yes. I feel quite similar to that assessment. It sure seems that I would label Day 2 as pretty much "paying for previous sins".
Rafael Vela:: Where do you want to begin there?
Bob Sturm: Bruce Carter. Quite possibly a wonderful player - although the tape I see is rather mixed. But, I would have a much more open mind if this pick wasn't also made in 2005, 2006, 2009, and 2010. Inside nickel cover linebacker with sideline to sideline capabilities.
Rafael Vela: They're projecting him as a 3-down player to have taken him so high. The question for me is their thinking process in projecting him inside.
Bob Sturm: There is no way this franchise should have spent a 1st, 3 2nd's and a 3rd on this low priority spot in 7 drafts. And have fewer than 5 starts so far between all 5 players!
Rafael Vela: Carpenter, the less said the better. Jason Williams? The same. Lee and Carter will have to answer. I think the question about Bruce Carter, as you've said, comes down to the non-production of the Parcells and Wade era ILBs. I was looking up Kevin Burnett last night. The charge in Dallas was he was too light, played at 228 his last year here. He's listing at 240 in San Diego and he produced for them. Two solid years, had six sacks last year. that would have put him what, 2nd on the Cowboys?
Rafael Vela: I don't have a problem with going after a spot if you feel you have to fill it and the picks you've made have not panned out. Trying again is better than denying the first pick or picks were busts. I do wish they could hit, however. Well, Carpenter was drafted to play Anthony Spencer's role, They kicked him inside because he couldn't do it.
Bob Sturm: Yes. I just find it dubious when people suggest Lee and Carter could be running the middle together for the next decade. With Burnett and Carpenter reaching the age of their prime, I realize that there are no sure things in the NFL. But, I suppose previous failures should not scare you off a 3-down player. If he is what they say he is, then the Cowboys will be pleased. How about the ACL. Bothered that a speed LB is coming off a knee injury?
Rafael Vela: I think the drafting players injured is what has people going nuts more than anything. Burnett, Lee and Carter all rehabbing. ACL's don't bother me. People do recover from them. It's the time-table. This is a 2nd round pick. Will he be able to play this year, or will he miss all of camp trying to work that joint back up to strength and then become Sean Lee, a guy trying to catch up all year?
Bob Sturm: Wow, I forgot that about Carpenter. They actually thought he could be an edge rusher in a 3-4? He is 27 years old. Jason Williams in 25. There is why we have so many holes around here. That should be the backbone of your roster. 24-28 year olds, that is.
Rafael Vela: In their best dreams, I think Dallas sees Carter in this year's nickel, and then stepping in for James next year. Can he at least deliver that nickel part. That's important, because as crazy as it seems, you know they missed Carpenter in the nickel last year, cause they cut him without having a replacement on board. Watching Brooking and James playing every down was painful, and one of many reasons that defense fell apart.
Bob Sturm: What is Lee's role this year under that premise?
Rafael Vela: I think Lee is expected to be the starter this year, putting Brooking into a rotation. or less, for him. But we can't go off Wade's blueprints any more. It's Rob Ryan's show.
Bob Sturm: I sure hope that happens. That would make me feel much better about this investment. The declarations that Brooking is on the roster this weekend seemed a bit premature, but they are going to do what they want to do.
Rafael Vela: Let's see what he can do. I've heard really good things about Rob's linebackers coach. They got more from less in Cleveland. Old Scott Fujita did really well for them. Whatever we say about them, these are better linebackers, across the board, than Ryan and Matt Eberflus had there.
Bob Sturm: OK. Let's visit about the RB situation. Other than the national media, everybody knew Barber was gone regardless of selecting a RB in the 3rd Round. What does DeMarco Murray tell us about Felix and Choice?
Rafael Vela: Murray suggest to me that Jason Garrett wasn't fully comfortable with either of them. Let's look at this ''three headed monster.'' ( You have no idea how much I hated that term) Barber kept getting lower body injuries, and playing lead blocker for himself aged him in dog years -- every season was like seven for you and me.
People were calling for Choice last year, and Garrett kept running Barber out there. The reason? I think it was because Garrett could trust Barber to block for Romo. Early on, I saw Tashard whiffing or using some, low-level-blocking-enthusiam, shall we say, and Romo took some belts as a result. When you're in your third year and calling for more time, that's not gonna help your case. Felix was finally healthy, but was he the same shifty Felix? Who could you trust? Who can you trust in 2011 if you're Jason Garrett?
Rafael Vela: I think DeMarco Murray will start on day one of camp with a chance to seize this job. I don't automatically pencil him in as the number 3. Felix and Tashard have not earned automatic rotation roles. That's why I think Dallas took a back so high. You and I talked about the line making the backs look bad. I think Murray's pick suggests the team thinks it was the line AND the backs.
Bob Sturm: At the heart of any Tashard Choice discussion is clearly the thread of "do the coaches think he is 25% as good as some fans seems to"?
Rafael Vela: Some fans think Choice would be Superman in cleats, but that's the way it is when you're the backup. They treated Barber the same way when he backed up Julius Jones. And they turned on him in a hurry the second he got injured. They'll turn on Tashard just as fast if Murray rips off some big runs in his first preseason games. That's just the way it goes.
Bob Sturm: My thinking on that pick was what it told us about Choice's skill set. Let's talk about Murray's durability issues as well. I get very concerned when my big Sooner buddies were shocked at this pick. I like his skills, but anyone has to see diminishing explosiveness as his career in Norman went on.
Rafael Vela: I didn't follow OU so I can't really say. He missed what, five games his entire college career? He's not going to be an 18 carry, 24 touch guy in Dallas. No back will get that load. But somebody is going to get the lead -- 14-15 carries and 4-5 passes a game. I think he's in the mix. 24 touch a game, I should have said.
Bob Sturm:Yes, he played through a lot. Didn't miss games as much as he tried to play hurt and saw his productivity really suffer. Seems like a pick that could really fly, but I keep coming back to Felix/Mendenhall etc. I have a lot of baggage from drafts gone by that I need to work through.
Rafael Vela: You need a short memory. Look Jeff Fisher took three backs in the 1st or 2nd round, trying to get his lead back. He didn't like what he had, then hit with Chris Johnson, who was his 4th crack at it. I you think it's important, you keep trying until you get it right.
Bob Sturm: That is all well and good - and Carter and Murray have tremendous upside (draft cliche). But if I am going to do that, Mr Vela, I have to accept that Olshansky and Bowen are still my defensive ends; Ball and Sensabaugh are still my safeties. etc... And that means that I have to either sign a lot of free agents or I am in a world of hurt.
Rafael Vela: No, I don't think so, at least on the safeties. I think you will see Olshansky and Bowen at DE, but they said it a few times during the press conference, they have players they like in free agency, regardless of the system. And we all know this was an awful draft for safeties. I'm glad they didn't push one, or be like Denver and push two. They did go after a late 1st round DE, from all indications and Cam Jordan seems like the guy. We don't know what they were offering or how close they came. I guess the questions are, what DE could they have gotten in the 2nd. I broke down their 2010 draft board, cause they were kind enough to expose it the cameras last year, and they had Sean Lee and Navarro Bowman in their top 20. Going off their templates, I'm going to guess Bruce Carter was in their top 20-24 rated players. Once they decided to go Tyron Smith in the 1st and could not pull off a DE move up, they're out of the sweepstakes, as Garrett said, cause they were gonna go off their board and I'm pretty sure there was no D-lineman left in the 2nd close to Carter in their eyes. We might not like how they grade players, but they have to follow their board.
Bob Sturm: Ok. So, were you amazed at Murray over Rackley? Or does that sit ok with you?
Rafael Vela: I'm okay because they took David Arkin in the 4th. Look Rackley is a small-school guy. He wasn't going to be a starter this year. He's about 6-7 lbs. heavier than Arkin but either one of them is wearing the red shirt. Ask yourself this -- if Dallas had taken Rackley in the 3rd and gotten Murray in the 4th, would they be any closer to having a rookie starting guard then doing what they did? I don't think so.
Bob Sturm: Perhaps. I guess I talked to a scout or two that thought Rackley was closer to plug and play. I won't pretend to have any idea what Arkin is capable of until we get to camp. But, I have earmarked Jacksonville to keep an eye on the Lehigh kid.
Rafael Vela: Okay, I've seen neither, so I'm going to wait and see. I'll say this, Arkin looks athletic.
Bob Sturm: OK. Let's spend some time on Day 3. I want to direct some people to your story from this morning at your site. http://www.cowboysnation.com/2011/05/short-terms-results-will-determine-long.html But, let's spitball about guys we likely know very little about. Impressions of Day 3?
Rafael Vela: Jason Garrett made a very telling comment in that presser Saturday. He said he wants a physical team and a tenacious one, But he stressed that you have to be athletic, because you can't be dominant without it. I took this as a shot at the big, flabby sluggos who wore down in December and January each of the last few years. Here's shorthand -- the O-line in the Giants playoff loss in '08. You know what I'm talking about. A 20 play drive to end the 2nd quarter and nothing in the 2nd half. He's making a point about conditioning and player types. Seeing that Arkin is a radically different body type than Robert Brewster, or Montrae Holland, tells me to give him a chance.
Bob Sturm: Amen to that. Don't get me started on taking Brewster in the 3rd Round with that body!
Rafael Vela: Day 3 looks pretty good, on first glance. They hit need positions -- two interior O-linemen, a cornerback with some upside, a receiver and a fullback who looks like he could be the starter this year.
Bob Sturm: I feel like you are a fan of what Dwayne Harris may bring to the party....
Rafael Vela: He's a central casting Cowboys receiver -- 6'1'', 205. He's a physical and productive guy. He doesn't sound like he'll be a superstat, because he's not a burner, but he reads like a young Patrick Crayton. And speaking of guys the Cowboys missed in 2010, they missed him.
Bob Sturm: Underneath slot guys are a big need here. Especially if we are losing faith in the Ogletree project.
Rafael Vela: They made a lot of budgetary cuts last year, trading Crayton, flipping Carpenter out and got nothing in return. Ogletree and Hurd did little as the slot guys, they had not nickel LB to replace Carp, and let's not touch Alex Barron, okay?
Rafael Vela: And that cost them games. John Phillips torn knee left them with no FB, so they rolled the dice on a UFA and Chris Gronkowski played like one. Worked his butt off, but he got Tony Romo on IR.
Bob Sturm: They seem to realize that reserves either need to play on your special teams (a lot) or they better be pretty special. And that is the issue with RB/WR right now in many respects. It is not easy to fill these spots. 45 man roster; 4 or 5 specialists. That leaves about 40. Take your starters and sluggos off the list and that leaves about 16 or 18 guys to fill all 4 special teams and fill out your reserves. I love doing the math of how you assemble a game day roster in the NFL. So much to worry about. Even before in-game injuries.
Rafael Vela: Right. The way I see it, they drafted a new backfield, a starting RT and two Gs. The guards are ''in-the-pipeline'' guys but I think they're looking for Arkin to give them something next year. A lot of people would be happier if they took the guard in the 2nd or 3rd, but they did address it.
Rafael Vela: Yep. And one of the biggest mistakes they made last year was clearing out the core of their special teams. Now, a lot of those guys did nothing BUT special teams, the Pat Watkins types, but they did give value. People hate hearing it, but I think these guys are being looked at as teams players in addition to situational play. I'm thinking of Josh Thomas, Harris and Chapas here.
Bob Sturm: Fullback has proven to be a lot more difficult to fill than you would think. It seems like a minimal role in this offense, but Deon to Gronkowski to Chapas tells us they are still trying to get it right. But, if it is an indicator that Garrett wants to run some "21" and "22" personnel and establish a physical tone, then let's do it.
Rafael Vela: It goes beyond the ''true'' fullback. They've been trying to get a quality lead blocker. Add Fasano, Hoyte and Polite to that list. I've seen an Ernie Zampese playbook, and what amazed me was the number of *passing plays* the fullback factors in. I think this is why they've been trying to convert tight ends into F-backs, who can lead block and run routes. The Polites, Hoytes and Deon Andersons offered nothing as receiving threats. They were playing 10-on-11 whenever they tried throwing with those guys on the field. Having a true fullback, in the Moose Johnston mold, is a huge get. I don't know if Chapas can fill the role, but he's a major addition if he can. John Phillips has the game, and Chapas gives them two guys who can fill the Moose shoes.
Bob Sturm: What a crazy scene now with all of the undrafted free agents in limbo. Do they get jobs? Do they hang out? I feel for those guys. And there are some notable names in that group that now might have to wait months before they know if they are NFL players or not. And even then they might just have a short camp to show their wares...
Rafael Vela: You know the Cowboys have guys they like. There are some interesting guys who went undrafted. I've seen that the teams can't have contact with these guys, but I find it hard to believe that the agents are not getting some types of hints if a team like their client or clients.
Bob Sturm: Let's stop here until next time. Well played, sir. Check out Rafael's stuff at www.cowboysnation.com - fresh stuff all of the time.
Rafael Vela: As always, Bob, thanks. Let's do this again soon.
Showing posts with label chat. Show all posts
Showing posts with label chat. Show all posts
Monday, May 02, 2011
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Chat with Rafael Vela
Bob Sturm: OK, Well, a few days until go time and we have plenty of items to chew on with the rumors of moving up, moving down, and staying put. A wonderful time of the year, Mr Vela
Rafael Vela: Just looking at the news Christian Ballard and Justin Houston failed tests at Indy -- for pot. Yes, this is Christmas on Earth for NFL fans
Bob Sturm: No doubt about it. OK. Let's operate in the realm of "what we know". And this year, that seems to be a shorter list than usual. Usually, we have a team at #1 negotiating with its pick and dominoes start to fall. I feel like we are still pretty much guessing with regards to the top of Round 1. Agree?
Rafael Vela: Yeah. Have you ever seen at top 10-15 so crazy? We know some players are going in an area -- Von Miller, A.J. Green, those guys are going high, but it's bizarre that so many people say Patrick Peterson is likely the 1st or 2nd rated player overall and we see him perhaps sliding to 7th? Strange year, Bob.
Bob Sturm: Well, let's place some percentages on the following. Cowboys trade up, Cowboys stay at #9, Cowboys trade down. I will start at 20%, 50%, 30% from my end. I think trading up is a real possibility, but I am weighing that against my desire that they don't. Fill in those percentages from your spot.
Rafael Vela: You know, that's tough. I'm gonna copy your odds. I think they want to deal down and get that extra 2nd or 3rd, but who knows if anybody will be dying to move up. The rumors are all over the place. Over the weekend it was 5 QBs in the 1st round, and yesterday Blaine Gabbert is falling all the way down to 15th. I think that uncertainty may make a team like Dallas just sit and pick if it has a player it really likes.
Rafael Vela:: On that point, which top players are ''clean?'' Newton and Gabbert have question marks. Nick Fairley's character is taking some shots. Robert Quinn has the questions about his brain tumor. Tyron Smith has doubters about his weight gain
Bob Sturm: So, players that I feel are automatic studs?
Rafael Vela: Yes. That I feel or you feel?
Bob Sturm: Well, I guess my position would be the following: Peterson. Dareus. Miller (10 sacks a year). I am willing to go with Quinn. Green. Jones. So, I have 6.
Bob Sturm: Quinn does have a brain tumor and some questions of character, but the tape doesn't lie. And his tape may be more spectacular than anyone in the draft. And that brain tumor was discovered in high school.
Rafael Vela: As rookies? I think Dareus will be solid. Peterson? Depends on the team drafting him. If he can press and play his game, sure. We saw that with Mike Jenkins. The simpler the assignments, the easier the transition. I'm not sure on Green and Jones, just cause rookie WRs don't blow up. It's year two when most of them take off. I think the pass rushers and the O-linemen are the safest bets for fast get offs. And of course, Mark Ingram and Mikael Leshoure will be drafted low and probably produce right away, cause running backs do, and they'll be seen as ''steals.''
Bob Sturm: If we say that Peterson is worthy of being a top pick in the draft, and then we suggest he may be in play with a deal with Cleveland (#9 and #71 for #6) then we better say what he is and what he isn't. What is Peterson long term if he wears the Star?
Rafael Vela:: Peterson? If he can run, you leave him at corner. That's his calling card, right? A 219 lb. corner with 4.32 speed? Ronnie Lott moved to safety because he struggled as a corner his rookie year. I can't see spending that much on a guy to move him to safety. And again, Dallas hasn't transitioned a player to safety since Darren Woodson in 1992.
Bob Sturm: The issue with Peterson remains the following: he is 20 years old and weighs 219 pounds. Evolution says he will be 225 or 230 by his 24th or 25th birthday. At corner long term? That is my only question on an otherwise shockingly strong player. And as you have stated, there is too much money and too much at stake to just say, "oh, well we will just pop him to safety". And how many 225 pound corners can you name?
Rafael Vela: If he can run, I'd leave him alone. Otherwise, you're using that ''players in jeans'' mentality that Billy Beane ripped apart in the beginning of moneyball. If he can play on the outside, leave him there. That's what I think.
Bob Sturm: So, you don't care that there isn't a comparable? I like the guts, I just don't know if that is a wise move. Remember Bobby Taylor? he only weighed 216 for the Eagles. And he was a huge corner.
Rafael Vela: You have years of tape that says he can do it. Do you deny your eyes because nobody else that big has ever done it? That's a bonus, in my mind. Receivers keep getting bigger. You have a guy as big as Hakeem Nicks or Dez Bryant chasing him around, why not?
Bob Sturm: Point, Rafael.
Rafael Vela: Well, that's why you would go to the trouble to trade up, if you can, right?
Bob Sturm: I would say so, but I still want to sit at #9 instead. OK, so sell me for or against the decision if he is there at #6. Is he special enough to drop everything and do it?
Rafael Vela: And yes, on Bobby Taylor. What was his calling card? He could go toe-to-toe with Michael Irvin. Big negates big. I think Dallas might think he's special enough to move up. I just don't want to burn another 3rd round pick making that move. That's a good player you're passing up. Dallas did this last year and that catches up to you.
Bob Sturm: Of course, the downside is that your OL is still un-fixed if we do that.
Rafael Vela: Exactly. Sooner or later, Dallas has to fix that line. They owe Tony Romo a good, young line at some point in his career.
Bob Sturm: Ok. So, although I hear signs that the Cowboys are not as excited about Tyron Smith as I am, I am still going to operate under the theory that his choice at #9 appeals to me more than anyone else there. I feel value meets need rarely, but this seems to be a spot where best player available is exactly the same as your biggest need on your roster.
Rafael Vela: I agree. And I wonder if the Cowboys are throwing up a lot of smoke to obscure their real plans? Ten days ago Smith was a cinch. Now? Maybe it's J.J. Watt. Maybe it's Castonzo. Maybe they move for Peterson. Maybe they still like Prince. I don't know how the league insiders feel, but it has worked on me. I'm fatigued trying to parse every rumor. I'm ready for them to draft.
Rafael Vela: I have to commend them, though. This is more Jimmy Johnson's M.O. that team has leaked information in recent years, and it has hurt them. Think the Tony Gonzalez mess in '96. I like their duplicity and secrecy. It makes it tougher to read them but that's the point, I think.
Bob Sturm: Let's visit about Castonzo versus Smith. The discussion seems to center around 2011 ability which bothers me. But, if you believe what you hear, they like 50 starts at Boston College over the development time Smith may require. Give me your run down on this. Maybe it is just smoke?
Rafael Vela: I wonder if it is smoke? You draft for anticipated career performance. If you draft based on which player is going to be better in September and October 2011, you're nuts. If they feel Tyron Smith is going to be the better player in a year or two, that's who you should take. If they're not convinced, take Castonzo. The idea that you draft a guy on 2011 readyness makes no sense, even in the 1st round. Time won't end in 2011.
Bob Sturm: And, I do want to be clear. I am fine with Castonzo or Carimi if it means I get another pick in the 2nd round. But, I just cannot study all 3 players and suggest that they are equal to Smith in upside and potential to be a superstar at the position in 4 years. I think he has special qualities and I think they are solid players. The Cowboys could use any of the 3 right now. But, Castonzo and Carimi are more trade down targets. Of course, I talk on the radio and blog. They are NFL personnel experts, so I do leave open the possibility that their findings may not agree with mine. :)
Rafael Vela: I see these names as representing tiers. If they move up, they get Peterson. If they stay at 9, I think they're taking Smith. If they move down a bit, that's where Watt and Castonzo come into play. I think they like all of them and the player they take will come down to who is available and the types of offers they get on draft day. They may love Tyron Smith at 9, but love Watt and the extra pick they get better. They won't know until they get called. Stephen Jones is right about that.
Bob Sturm: Yes. Great intrigue there. In the trade down category. we have 2 tiers as well, right? Tier 1 is Minnesota at #12, Detroit at #13 and St Louis at #14 jockeying for a particular player. That drop may just get you an additional 3rd which may not be enough to convince you. But, New England and San Diego require a bigger drop, but an additional 2nd. This is where your hopes should lie I think. New England at #17, San Diego at #18
Rafael Vela:: I'm not that convinced New England moves up. I saw a report yesterday they have a pending offer for a 2nd this year and a 1st next year if the right guy is there at 28. That's Bill Belichick's preferred way of trading. I've heard the Chargers have talked to them about the 33rd pick. If they're already working out deals for futures picks, where is the ammo for the big move up? If San Diego is working to move into the late 1st, and they have the 50th pick as their springboard, then that pick won't be part of a move up to 9. And I've said it before, the Rams and Lions still have a lot of holes. Will they burn a 3rd to move up, when they're assured of filling a need at 13 or 14? I don' t know. I think there may be fewer deals than we've considered. But hey, I've been wrong before.
Bob Sturm: So, you seem to be lacking conviction that a trade down offer will even be available. That of course is highly possible and should be strongly considered. However, with Washington at #10 needing QB and WR so badly, the slipping of either position to #9 should make the phone ring in my humble estimation.
Bob Sturm: Teams do strange things at the moment of truth. That is why we should all stay out of casinos unless we are planning to play with the rush of blood to our head.
Rafael Vela: Yeah, but Washington is looking for a move down if they can't get a QB at 10. Who's moving up? The Vikings, I hear, won't deal up for Gabbert. The Dolphins don't have a 2nd, so their hands are tied.
Bob Sturm: Let's say they roll with JJ Watt. It seems pretty clear he is on their short list and if there is no trade down, maybe, just maybe, they grab him at #9. What are the backup plans on the OL? Wow me with your Plan B there, if you have worked this one over in your head.
Rafael Vela: We all want those deals to happen, but who's moving up? The QBs, last I heard were cooling down. And that may be the case. I remember a few years ago hearing Chad Henne was hot and Dallas could maybe deal down into the 2nd with a team looking to get him. Miami got him in the 2nd. Deep in the 2nd.
Rafael Vela: I don't know the Plan B. I like J.J. Watt. He would be a productive player for them. A bigger, stronger Tony Tolbert type. If they go that way, I don't really see an OT worth the 40, unless they got really lucky and a Derek Sherrod or Danny Watkins dropped into the early 2nd. Then you might see Dallas try moving up 5 or 6 spots for him. Otherwise, we're looking at the James Carpenters and Marcus Gilberts in the 3rd.
Bob Sturm:: These are disconcerting scenarios for those of us that believe the OL is the top priority and maybe the 2nd priority, too.
Rafael Vela: You can't push the board. That gets you into even more trouble. You're right -- the matchup for O-line and need will likely come in the 1st round. If you pass there? You may be chasing that OT all day. I don't need another Max Unger story.
Bob Sturm: OK. Before we wrap up this chat, let's visit about #40. The Top 5 realistic names for Mr Vela at #40 are....
Rafael Vela: 40 has mystified me all spring. I still don't have a feel for it. I think they like Aaron Williams there. I don't but I'm convinced they do. I think Rahim Moore enters their thinking there. I think Martez Wilson and maybe Mason Foster are in their thinking. Andy Dalton is all over the map, from 15 to 50 but I think they think about him there. Don't know why, but I dont' really see offense there. I'd be surprised if they took a Jon Baldwin there, but with Dallas? Who knows. How many people were stunned when they took Anthony Fasano and Martellus Bennett in the 2nd?
Bob Sturm: It still seems like there could be some manner of DL/OL depth there, but you don't want to reach. Also, I could see a CB falling to me if I am lucky. Projecting #40 seems terribly silly at this juncture, and yet I cannot resist.
Rafael Vela: Ah, corner. Thanks. I had a brain freeze there. Yes, if the QB rush happens in the late 20s, early 30s, put Brandon Harris in that mix. He's the DB I'd like the most from the guys they've met.
Bob Sturm: You can certainly sell me on Aaron Williams. We have mentioned your theory on Dalton, but let me bounce Ryan Mallett back at you. At #40, will Jerry's Hog Hat be too much to resist?
Rafael Vela: Yes. Ryan Mallett would be a disaster for this team. Remember the Drew Carey joke about Bernie Kosar avoiding the rush, where Carey took the mic stand and swung it like a metronome? Well, Mallett has even slower feet. Look at all the dancing Tony Romo has done to stay alive behind this line. You're telling me Dallas is going to avoid O-line early and then put that guy behind their protection? Yikes.
Bob Sturm: Not saying I like it at all. I am merely trying to anticipate my forehead slaps for the week ahead.
Rafael Vela: Don't look for trouble, Bob. It usually has no trouble finding you.
Bob Sturm: However, I do think Mallett has a chance to be ok. His arm is very delicious, and unlike Jeff George, at #40, it won't cost me an arm and a leg to find out. That being said, let someone else gamble.
Rafael Vela: Right. He needs a team with a good running back, so he can run play action off of that. Tennessee. Minnesota. Teams like that make sense for him.
Bob Sturm: Oh, back to a previous answer, you listed Foster and Wilson at #40. ILB options. Still a major priority for you?
Rafael Vela: No, actually. I was told yesterday by the NFP's Wes Bunting that linebacker is shaping up as a strength of the 2012 draft, at least among the seniors. WIth so many good D-linemen and corners likely to still be around in the 2nd, why not take from those deep talent pools and get your ILB next year? It's not like Bradie James is dead. His contract runs out after this season, not before.
Bob Sturm: forward thinking, indeed. Ok. Good stuff. Enjoy the draft, and maybe we can visit about the results early next week. Thank you, sir. and go visit Rafael at www.cowboysnation.com when you have a moment.
Rafael Vela: Thanks, Bob. I'll be talking draft with Bunting today and Wednesday and I may have some other draft surprises to announce. As always, Bob, thanks to you and to the DMN for the space. Much appreciated.
Rafael Vela: Just looking at the news Christian Ballard and Justin Houston failed tests at Indy -- for pot. Yes, this is Christmas on Earth for NFL fans
Bob Sturm: No doubt about it. OK. Let's operate in the realm of "what we know". And this year, that seems to be a shorter list than usual. Usually, we have a team at #1 negotiating with its pick and dominoes start to fall. I feel like we are still pretty much guessing with regards to the top of Round 1. Agree?
Rafael Vela: Yeah. Have you ever seen at top 10-15 so crazy? We know some players are going in an area -- Von Miller, A.J. Green, those guys are going high, but it's bizarre that so many people say Patrick Peterson is likely the 1st or 2nd rated player overall and we see him perhaps sliding to 7th? Strange year, Bob.
Bob Sturm: Well, let's place some percentages on the following. Cowboys trade up, Cowboys stay at #9, Cowboys trade down. I will start at 20%, 50%, 30% from my end. I think trading up is a real possibility, but I am weighing that against my desire that they don't. Fill in those percentages from your spot.
Rafael Vela: You know, that's tough. I'm gonna copy your odds. I think they want to deal down and get that extra 2nd or 3rd, but who knows if anybody will be dying to move up. The rumors are all over the place. Over the weekend it was 5 QBs in the 1st round, and yesterday Blaine Gabbert is falling all the way down to 15th. I think that uncertainty may make a team like Dallas just sit and pick if it has a player it really likes.
Rafael Vela:: On that point, which top players are ''clean?'' Newton and Gabbert have question marks. Nick Fairley's character is taking some shots. Robert Quinn has the questions about his brain tumor. Tyron Smith has doubters about his weight gain
Bob Sturm: So, players that I feel are automatic studs?
Rafael Vela: Yes. That I feel or you feel?
Bob Sturm: Well, I guess my position would be the following: Peterson. Dareus. Miller (10 sacks a year). I am willing to go with Quinn. Green. Jones. So, I have 6.
Bob Sturm: Quinn does have a brain tumor and some questions of character, but the tape doesn't lie. And his tape may be more spectacular than anyone in the draft. And that brain tumor was discovered in high school.
Rafael Vela: As rookies? I think Dareus will be solid. Peterson? Depends on the team drafting him. If he can press and play his game, sure. We saw that with Mike Jenkins. The simpler the assignments, the easier the transition. I'm not sure on Green and Jones, just cause rookie WRs don't blow up. It's year two when most of them take off. I think the pass rushers and the O-linemen are the safest bets for fast get offs. And of course, Mark Ingram and Mikael Leshoure will be drafted low and probably produce right away, cause running backs do, and they'll be seen as ''steals.''
Bob Sturm: If we say that Peterson is worthy of being a top pick in the draft, and then we suggest he may be in play with a deal with Cleveland (#9 and #71 for #6) then we better say what he is and what he isn't. What is Peterson long term if he wears the Star?
Rafael Vela:: Peterson? If he can run, you leave him at corner. That's his calling card, right? A 219 lb. corner with 4.32 speed? Ronnie Lott moved to safety because he struggled as a corner his rookie year. I can't see spending that much on a guy to move him to safety. And again, Dallas hasn't transitioned a player to safety since Darren Woodson in 1992.
Bob Sturm: The issue with Peterson remains the following: he is 20 years old and weighs 219 pounds. Evolution says he will be 225 or 230 by his 24th or 25th birthday. At corner long term? That is my only question on an otherwise shockingly strong player. And as you have stated, there is too much money and too much at stake to just say, "oh, well we will just pop him to safety". And how many 225 pound corners can you name?
Rafael Vela: If he can run, I'd leave him alone. Otherwise, you're using that ''players in jeans'' mentality that Billy Beane ripped apart in the beginning of moneyball. If he can play on the outside, leave him there. That's what I think.
Bob Sturm: So, you don't care that there isn't a comparable? I like the guts, I just don't know if that is a wise move. Remember Bobby Taylor? he only weighed 216 for the Eagles. And he was a huge corner.
Rafael Vela: You have years of tape that says he can do it. Do you deny your eyes because nobody else that big has ever done it? That's a bonus, in my mind. Receivers keep getting bigger. You have a guy as big as Hakeem Nicks or Dez Bryant chasing him around, why not?
Bob Sturm: Point, Rafael.
Rafael Vela: Well, that's why you would go to the trouble to trade up, if you can, right?
Bob Sturm: I would say so, but I still want to sit at #9 instead. OK, so sell me for or against the decision if he is there at #6. Is he special enough to drop everything and do it?
Rafael Vela: And yes, on Bobby Taylor. What was his calling card? He could go toe-to-toe with Michael Irvin. Big negates big. I think Dallas might think he's special enough to move up. I just don't want to burn another 3rd round pick making that move. That's a good player you're passing up. Dallas did this last year and that catches up to you.
Bob Sturm: Of course, the downside is that your OL is still un-fixed if we do that.
Rafael Vela: Exactly. Sooner or later, Dallas has to fix that line. They owe Tony Romo a good, young line at some point in his career.
Bob Sturm: Ok. So, although I hear signs that the Cowboys are not as excited about Tyron Smith as I am, I am still going to operate under the theory that his choice at #9 appeals to me more than anyone else there. I feel value meets need rarely, but this seems to be a spot where best player available is exactly the same as your biggest need on your roster.
Rafael Vela: I agree. And I wonder if the Cowboys are throwing up a lot of smoke to obscure their real plans? Ten days ago Smith was a cinch. Now? Maybe it's J.J. Watt. Maybe it's Castonzo. Maybe they move for Peterson. Maybe they still like Prince. I don't know how the league insiders feel, but it has worked on me. I'm fatigued trying to parse every rumor. I'm ready for them to draft.
Rafael Vela: I have to commend them, though. This is more Jimmy Johnson's M.O. that team has leaked information in recent years, and it has hurt them. Think the Tony Gonzalez mess in '96. I like their duplicity and secrecy. It makes it tougher to read them but that's the point, I think.
Bob Sturm: Let's visit about Castonzo versus Smith. The discussion seems to center around 2011 ability which bothers me. But, if you believe what you hear, they like 50 starts at Boston College over the development time Smith may require. Give me your run down on this. Maybe it is just smoke?
Rafael Vela: I wonder if it is smoke? You draft for anticipated career performance. If you draft based on which player is going to be better in September and October 2011, you're nuts. If they feel Tyron Smith is going to be the better player in a year or two, that's who you should take. If they're not convinced, take Castonzo. The idea that you draft a guy on 2011 readyness makes no sense, even in the 1st round. Time won't end in 2011.
Bob Sturm: And, I do want to be clear. I am fine with Castonzo or Carimi if it means I get another pick in the 2nd round. But, I just cannot study all 3 players and suggest that they are equal to Smith in upside and potential to be a superstar at the position in 4 years. I think he has special qualities and I think they are solid players. The Cowboys could use any of the 3 right now. But, Castonzo and Carimi are more trade down targets. Of course, I talk on the radio and blog. They are NFL personnel experts, so I do leave open the possibility that their findings may not agree with mine. :)
Rafael Vela: I see these names as representing tiers. If they move up, they get Peterson. If they stay at 9, I think they're taking Smith. If they move down a bit, that's where Watt and Castonzo come into play. I think they like all of them and the player they take will come down to who is available and the types of offers they get on draft day. They may love Tyron Smith at 9, but love Watt and the extra pick they get better. They won't know until they get called. Stephen Jones is right about that.
Bob Sturm: Yes. Great intrigue there. In the trade down category. we have 2 tiers as well, right? Tier 1 is Minnesota at #12, Detroit at #13 and St Louis at #14 jockeying for a particular player. That drop may just get you an additional 3rd which may not be enough to convince you. But, New England and San Diego require a bigger drop, but an additional 2nd. This is where your hopes should lie I think. New England at #17, San Diego at #18
Rafael Vela:: I'm not that convinced New England moves up. I saw a report yesterday they have a pending offer for a 2nd this year and a 1st next year if the right guy is there at 28. That's Bill Belichick's preferred way of trading. I've heard the Chargers have talked to them about the 33rd pick. If they're already working out deals for futures picks, where is the ammo for the big move up? If San Diego is working to move into the late 1st, and they have the 50th pick as their springboard, then that pick won't be part of a move up to 9. And I've said it before, the Rams and Lions still have a lot of holes. Will they burn a 3rd to move up, when they're assured of filling a need at 13 or 14? I don' t know. I think there may be fewer deals than we've considered. But hey, I've been wrong before.
Bob Sturm: So, you seem to be lacking conviction that a trade down offer will even be available. That of course is highly possible and should be strongly considered. However, with Washington at #10 needing QB and WR so badly, the slipping of either position to #9 should make the phone ring in my humble estimation.
Bob Sturm: Teams do strange things at the moment of truth. That is why we should all stay out of casinos unless we are planning to play with the rush of blood to our head.
Rafael Vela: Yeah, but Washington is looking for a move down if they can't get a QB at 10. Who's moving up? The Vikings, I hear, won't deal up for Gabbert. The Dolphins don't have a 2nd, so their hands are tied.
Bob Sturm: Let's say they roll with JJ Watt. It seems pretty clear he is on their short list and if there is no trade down, maybe, just maybe, they grab him at #9. What are the backup plans on the OL? Wow me with your Plan B there, if you have worked this one over in your head.
Rafael Vela: We all want those deals to happen, but who's moving up? The QBs, last I heard were cooling down. And that may be the case. I remember a few years ago hearing Chad Henne was hot and Dallas could maybe deal down into the 2nd with a team looking to get him. Miami got him in the 2nd. Deep in the 2nd.
Rafael Vela: I don't know the Plan B. I like J.J. Watt. He would be a productive player for them. A bigger, stronger Tony Tolbert type. If they go that way, I don't really see an OT worth the 40, unless they got really lucky and a Derek Sherrod or Danny Watkins dropped into the early 2nd. Then you might see Dallas try moving up 5 or 6 spots for him. Otherwise, we're looking at the James Carpenters and Marcus Gilberts in the 3rd.
Bob Sturm:: These are disconcerting scenarios for those of us that believe the OL is the top priority and maybe the 2nd priority, too.
Rafael Vela: You can't push the board. That gets you into even more trouble. You're right -- the matchup for O-line and need will likely come in the 1st round. If you pass there? You may be chasing that OT all day. I don't need another Max Unger story.
Bob Sturm: OK. Before we wrap up this chat, let's visit about #40. The Top 5 realistic names for Mr Vela at #40 are....
Rafael Vela: 40 has mystified me all spring. I still don't have a feel for it. I think they like Aaron Williams there. I don't but I'm convinced they do. I think Rahim Moore enters their thinking there. I think Martez Wilson and maybe Mason Foster are in their thinking. Andy Dalton is all over the map, from 15 to 50 but I think they think about him there. Don't know why, but I dont' really see offense there. I'd be surprised if they took a Jon Baldwin there, but with Dallas? Who knows. How many people were stunned when they took Anthony Fasano and Martellus Bennett in the 2nd?
Bob Sturm: It still seems like there could be some manner of DL/OL depth there, but you don't want to reach. Also, I could see a CB falling to me if I am lucky. Projecting #40 seems terribly silly at this juncture, and yet I cannot resist.
Rafael Vela: Ah, corner. Thanks. I had a brain freeze there. Yes, if the QB rush happens in the late 20s, early 30s, put Brandon Harris in that mix. He's the DB I'd like the most from the guys they've met.
Bob Sturm: You can certainly sell me on Aaron Williams. We have mentioned your theory on Dalton, but let me bounce Ryan Mallett back at you. At #40, will Jerry's Hog Hat be too much to resist?
Rafael Vela: Yes. Ryan Mallett would be a disaster for this team. Remember the Drew Carey joke about Bernie Kosar avoiding the rush, where Carey took the mic stand and swung it like a metronome? Well, Mallett has even slower feet. Look at all the dancing Tony Romo has done to stay alive behind this line. You're telling me Dallas is going to avoid O-line early and then put that guy behind their protection? Yikes.
Bob Sturm: Not saying I like it at all. I am merely trying to anticipate my forehead slaps for the week ahead.
Rafael Vela: Don't look for trouble, Bob. It usually has no trouble finding you.
Bob Sturm: However, I do think Mallett has a chance to be ok. His arm is very delicious, and unlike Jeff George, at #40, it won't cost me an arm and a leg to find out. That being said, let someone else gamble.
Rafael Vela: Right. He needs a team with a good running back, so he can run play action off of that. Tennessee. Minnesota. Teams like that make sense for him.
Bob Sturm: Oh, back to a previous answer, you listed Foster and Wilson at #40. ILB options. Still a major priority for you?
Rafael Vela: No, actually. I was told yesterday by the NFP's Wes Bunting that linebacker is shaping up as a strength of the 2012 draft, at least among the seniors. WIth so many good D-linemen and corners likely to still be around in the 2nd, why not take from those deep talent pools and get your ILB next year? It's not like Bradie James is dead. His contract runs out after this season, not before.
Bob Sturm: forward thinking, indeed. Ok. Good stuff. Enjoy the draft, and maybe we can visit about the results early next week. Thank you, sir. and go visit Rafael at www.cowboysnation.com when you have a moment.
Rafael Vela: Thanks, Bob. I'll be talking draft with Bunting today and Wednesday and I may have some other draft surprises to announce. As always, Bob, thanks to you and to the DMN for the space. Much appreciated.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
DMN Chat with Vela
Today, it is time for another chat with Rafael Vela of Cowboysnation.com and his large brain on all things Cowboys and Cowboys draft. Hope you enjoy our sparring session:
Bob Sturm: Let's start with a topic we have touched on in the past, and it appears to be one we may disagree on. Give me the official Vela view on Ratliff and his position discussion
Rafael Vela: I think he's a nose. I've written on this before and get a lot of disagreement but rush noses are rare. Only two in the past 28 years have produced at his level of sacks -- Bill Maas and Michael Carter, both in the '80s. I'm not opposed to getting more help for him inside, to rotate him on 1st and 2nd downs and keep him fresh on rush downs, but he's a power and technique guy, not a speed, edge guy. I think you diminish what makes him great moving him to the 5-technique. He's got to beat OTs out there and he's doesn't have the edge speed of a Demarcus Ware or a Bruce Smith.
Bob Sturm: I guess my view is that like moving my shortstop to 3rd, this is largely an odometer issue with me. I move him to DE partly to preserve him from the constant double teams. Is he Jared Allen or Ware on the edge? No. Is he a much better DE pass rusher than anything the Cowboys have seen since they flipped to a 3-4? You have to concede that point. I think his anchor against the run has diminished steadily until it became a rather large issue in 2010. Why should we believe that will improve when he is past age 30? Further, if every 3-4 team of note uses a 330 NT who is a 2-gapper, what are we trying to prove by trying to go against the grain?
Rafael Vela: Who knows? He's never played there. People think he will be, but he'll get double teamed as much on the edge as he will inside. It will be with TE and OTs rather than Cs and Gs, but I don't see it as an odometer issue. OTs are generally bigger than Cs. I looked at this. Only four or five Cs in the entire league outweigh him by 10 or more pounds. The OTs he'll face are on average 20 lbs. heavier than him. I don't want to mess with something that works. I'd rather find a good DE to put next to him. I think he needs a sidekick more than a replacement.
Rafael Vela: Ah, but there's a major misconception. Teams DON"T 2-gap with their NTs. Rob Ryan's brother Rex claims he uses his NT in a 2-gap front at most 15% of the time.
Bob Sturm: Whether they 2 gap or not in principle, you can bet there is a C-G double on his NT on every single 1st and 10 and 2nd and normal situation. That is what requires Hampton, Wilfork, Raji, etc..
Rafael Vela: But I think we're splitting hairs here. Would a bit NT type like a Phil Taylor or Kendrick Ellis help him? Yes. Because they let Jay line up as a 3-technique and get single blocked on Gs. He''s still working inside but with a lot less pressure. I think we're thinking towards the same goal, but getting caught up in nomenclature.
Rafael Vela: Ratliff's problem isn't his size, but that he has not rotation player. I played NT once up a time in high school. Those double teams wear you down. And he's getting what, 700 snaps a season? He needs a sidekick and his sacks go back up. Remember, ALL of the front 7 guys dropped down last year, not just Ratliff. I think this team really missed Todd Grantham, who left to be the DC at Georgia.
Bob Sturm: Fair enough. I guess the issue is whether or not to target a NT to allow options. And how to best utilize the assets and assess the needs. I guess NT would be rather high on my list. Getting Ratliff against a G the way GB does with Jenkins next to Raji or Pickett is ideal. In all, the Cowboys are giving up 100 pounds to the Packers in their front 3. I see that and wonder if we have the right idea.
Bob Sturm: no doubt, the depth issues are the biggest. Blaming Ratliff for the drop off at the line of scrimmage is silly. I am just looking for deployment solutions.
Rafael Vela: Again, we're moving to the same goal. I have NT high on my list. I've been pushing Kendrick Ellis in my mocks for the last few weeks. A big guy like that, who can line up inside or out, makes the whole line better.
Bob Sturm: let's talk about him. Give us your report on Ellis.
Rafael Vela: Kind of the poor man's Phil Taylor. Those are the two top NTs in this bunch. I liked Taylor, but have been hearing for weeks that he may drift into the late 1st round. I like him, but not that much. Dallas can't fool around and pass on an OT in the 1st, in my opinion. Ellis is the next guy. He was around 340 at his All Star game, where he dominated the week and was 333 at his Pro Day. He's quick, powerful and can play across the line. Dallas was scouting him in 'San Antonio and was at his pro day. I was hoping to look at him in the 3rd, but he's another late riser who may get snagged in the late 2nd. If Dallas trades down and gets a second 2nd round pick, he's on the radar, in my opinion.
Rafael Vela: The guy did have some trouble in college, was kicked off the South Carolina squad, but a bunch of teams are comfortable with him, from what I've seen and heard. Dallas appears to be one of them. You put Marcell Dareus, Taylor and Ellis in that big, power DL category, in that order.
Bob Sturm: It is tough to find Hampton tape, but that all-star game is floating around. I do like Taylor quite a bit. I wish he could get to the 2nd.
Bob Sturm: Dareus would be a real shock to get to #9, agree?
Rafael Vela: He might. He's all over the mocks. He could go in the 20s or he could go in the 40s. We won't know until draft day.
Bob Sturm: Dareus would be a real shock to get to #9, agree?
Rafael Vela: No, nobody will shock me. I did a piece last night. Lots of rumors that the QBs are rising; it seems pretty certain that two, Newton and Gabbert, go before Dallas. What would be amazing is seeing a 3rd, a Mallett or a Locker, jump up to say a Tennessee at eight. Then consider this eight man field -- Dareus, Fairley, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Von Miller, Patrick Peterson, Quinn and Bowers. THREE of them will be on the board at 9 if three QBs go high. It could be any of them, though I'd be amazed if Miller and Peterson fell through. But any of those others could.
Bob Sturm: 3 QBs up high? Wow. That would be quite ideal
Rafael Vela: Yes, but I have to say, while I would welcome that, from a Cowboys perspective, I'm still skeptical that a third QB goes that high. But I am hearing it more.
Bob Sturm: I wanted to touch a piece you recently have posted at your site, www.cowboysnation.com about Cowboys drafting patterns. Could you share the premise and then we can talk it out a bit?
http://www.cowboysnation.com/2011/03/gambler-returns-jerry-jones-steps-back.html
Rafael Vela: Yeah, I was noting that the biggest problem for Jerry in his first stint as the ''director'' of drafting was that no risk seemed too high. Look at all the high round busts who had red flags coming in, and who had trouble off the field in the league -- from Kareem Larrimore to Quincy Carter to Antonio Bryant to Derek Ross. Some painful picks, because they were 2nd and 3rd round guys mainly.
Bob Sturm: So, you see signs in this current era that we are back where we were?
Rafael Vela: I've noticed in the last three years, we're seeing more risk taking high that we didn't see in the Parcells years. Martellus Bennett, Jason Williams, Dez Bryant. Boom or bust guys. Bennett is still a headache, Williams is gone and Dez, well, you have to try hard to buy worse publicity.
Rafael Vela: that's why the Cam Newton rumors couldn't be dismissed out of hand last month. He's that shiny object.
Bob Sturm: Ouch. ok. Boom or bust - not just in character or off field, but also boom or bust in player projections. Felix?
Rafael Vela: You and I will disagree on him. I don't see him as a bust. I see a guy whose stuck behind a very bad and decaying line. None of the backs looked good behind it last year. He's still making 60-70 yard TD plays.
Rafael Vela: Newton I should say, is that shiny object Jerry likes to chase.
Bob Sturm: Felix? I don't think he is horrible. I just think the percentages said he was a real risk on draft day. He never carried the ball enough at Arkansas to feel like you knew all of the variables for a #1 in the NFL. Mendenhall was much, much safer. But, safe is not interesting on draft day to Jerry. I wrote this April 23, 2008: http://sturminator.blogspot.com/2008/04/case-against-felix-jones.html
Rafael Vela: No, safe isn't, and that concerns me. The needs of this team are meat and potatoes this year. Fix the lines, maybe add a corner or inside linebacker as well. 'that's never been Jerry's style.
Bob Sturm: What do you think of Cam Newton as a pro prospect?
Rafael Vela: Newton? Scares me as a pro. Not the most accurate pocket passer. Not a rhythm passer. You never know with athlete QBs. Steve Young made the transition, but it took him a while. Vince Young didn't do it. Didn't see enough of Tim Tebow to know how he's doing. I'd rather let another team deal with Newton, especially given his stage dad and Newton's "interesting'' past at Florida and Auburn.
Rafael Vela: On Felix, I saw one game late in Garrett's audition that gave me a lot of encouragement. The Colts game. Tashard got a couple of big runs on the special play, that naked toss after an inside fake where Dwight Freeney got suckered. He got what, two 20 yard runs off it. Felix Jones was used like Marion Barber that game. 22 carries, every one inside the tackles. He finished with a 4.0 yard average, I think. Made the gritty runs and got to finish drives. If he had a better line, it would have been higher. I think that may give the team confidence to give him the ball more, thought a better right side of that O-line would help him a lot.
Bob Sturm: There is no doubt that the lines are the key. We both agree. I refuse to give up on Felix until we know for sure. But, my point is simply, I think he was too much of a question to take in the first place. I suppose I could move on in my life, but I just want to be clear that in a crop that deep at RB, there was no reason to reach for a guy because he was so darn interesting and I cannot forget - went to Arkansas.
Rafael Vela: Well, on Felix and Arkansas -- he remains the only Razorback the Cowboys have drafted in the 23 years Jerry has owned the club.
Bob Sturm: I submit that players on the local radar - Big 12 South and other regional locales have the tiebreaker in the war-room. But, your evidence is compelling.
Rafael Vela:2nd round. Who do you look for at 40? That's the most interesting question for me and maybe the key to this draft.
Bob Sturm: I agree. That is an amazingly solid discussion point. It makes my head spin, because we need about 39 names off the board to know for sure. But, odds are really strong that the two categories of greatest need - OL and DL - should allow the Cowboys to get somebody very solid there. I think this draft plays well for where the Cowboys are and what they need to take.
Bob Sturm: For instance, if you told me either Baylor kid is there - Watkins or Taylor - I would run to the podium. But, the DE/DT/OT/OG crop seems rather thick. I have to believe the Cowboys are in a great position if they stay put and do what needs to be done. 2 starters?
Rafael Vela: Well, I'm looking OL there, even if the Cowboys get one in the 1st somewhere. Last night I was working with two puzzle pieces. If the Cowboys go D-line in the 1st, they're gonna need a RT in the 2nd. Ironclad. And while Gabe Carimi is the name, Danny Watkins is the important one. I talk to Wes Bunting a lot on my site and he was on Watkins back in November, saying he would be a sure 1st rounder if he were 6'5'' instead of 6'3'' and 22 instead of 26.
Bob Sturm: Whoa. For Tackle?
Rafael Vela: His point was Watkins played LT last year as well as any other OT coming out this year. Now, get this. He did a piece last week on the National Football Post talking about arm length, how important that is for OTs. Watkins is not a short-armed guy. If the Cowboys need a quick plug-and-play RT, I think he could be a candidate, even if they go with a Tyron Smith in the 1st and especially if they leave it with a Dareus. Cause Ben Ijalana is a small school guys and like Solder, and perhaps Smith, looks like a guy who might be ready in game 10 or season two, but not in game one.
Bob Sturm: I don't remember one snap at tackle at the Senior Bowl. I think the NFL sees him as a guard. That would be a radical idea. Either way, if Watkins is available, I need no selling because he can play either Guard right now and do it well. If he can also do some tackle, then that is frosting. But, I need two starting guards real soon anyway.
Rafael Vela: As I said, if Dallas took a Smith or a Carimi in the 1st, Watkins would still be a high interest player in the 2nd, because he can play G right away. I've heard rumors some teams think he could also transition to guard, though I was told he didn't handle any snaps there at the Senior Bowl.
Bob Sturm: But, you are not going to make decisions on draft day based on the ability to start week 1, are you? That would seem short sighted to me. If Ijalana is the better prospect, I can wait a year for the payoff.
Rafael Vela: Yeah, I'm hoping the team won't base that 2nd round pick on instant impact, but these are the Cowboys. I'm afraid they will. Look at Sean Lee last year and how they were force feeding him to get him ready for week one. They fully expected Dez Bryant and Sean Lee to start in week one.
Rafael Vela: Same reason I like Stefan Wisniewski. Can play C and could give you some guard if needed.
Bob Sturm: I like his tape, too.
Bob Sturm: Is Stephen Paea a player of interest in this scheme at #40?
Rafael Vela:: I think that's gonna affect their thinking, regardless of what Stephen Jones said this past week about best player available. I've heard Paea project better to a 3 technique in a 4-3, rather than as a nose, despite the amazing bench at the Combine. I haven't looked at him too much.
Bob Sturm:: I can only remember Rob Ryan losing his mind in that weight room. Silly connection to make, but I am guilty.
Rafael Vela:: But Rob Ryan plays multiple fronts in his scheme. He'll take a good interior player with some versatility.
Bob Sturm: You know, the idea of the trade back from #9 and hope to pick up a pick in the #50-#60 range is so very interesting and perfect for the Cowboys. Of all of the names and scenarios, this is the one you have been focusing on and it should really be the focus of all involved.
Rafael Vela: If they really love Carimi, it makes sense to move down to 17 or 18. Hope the QB go high and a plus pass rusher gets to 9. That should get Dallas an extra 2nd rounder.
Bob Sturm: In that #50-#60 range should be players like Rahim Moore, Brooks Reed, and perhaps Rodney Hudson.
Bob Sturm:To snag an extra one of those types could turn this thing on a dime in their favor. Carimi, Watkins, and Moore? Wow. I love that before they are on the clock in the 3rd.
Rafael Vela: I don't like any of those guys, to be honest. Moore ran a 4.62 at Indy.
Reed is a workout warrior and Hudson is what, 292? Unless he's added 15 lbs. I don't know about, I don't see him as a Cowboys prospect. I don't like any safeties in the first 3 rounds. Lets face it, Dallas doesn't know how to draft them and this is a terrible year for safeties. If they take one in the first 3 rounds, I'm putting low odds on success.
Bob Sturm:Moore plays CF pretty well. But, I admit, he is only the best safety in a bad year. I might challenge you on Reed. His tape is quite impressive. I don't care about workouts like I do about college production and tape. I think Reed is a real solid 3-4 OLB prospect.
Rafael Vela: But in the 2nd round? Reed?
Bob Sturm: Reed in the 50's? yes. If I have an extra 2nd, I would think it through. But, not with #40.
Rafael Vela: I'm looking O-line, D-line and ILB in the 2nd. Maybe CB at the back end. But that's me.
Bob Sturm: I know. But, by #50, you better consider best player on your board a bit more. If Reed can cause havoc on passing downs from the edge, I would think is worthy, but we are spending way too much time on Brooks Reed.
Bob Sturm: Talk to me about JJ Watt.
Rafael Vela: I like J.J., but I have a lot of other guys I like more in that 1st. He's a very, very productive player, tested well. What impressed me watching him this year was how often he got his hands on the football as a DE. Caused a lot of fumbles, got into passing lanes when he was blocked. Knocked down a lot of passes. He's that ''football player'' teams talk a lot about. I just wonder if he'll be a good but not great pro and people will give him the Marcus Spears treatment. Because if he's drafted by Dallas, will will likely be in the same range where Spears was taken.
Bob Sturm: Compare with Cam Jordan?
Rafael Vela: Pretty similar players. I think Jordan is a better pass rusher, but they're gonna rate about the same, so the Cowboys may like Watt more. It's like Fairley and Dareus, but one click down. Which do you prefer?
Bob Sturm: I think I like Jordan more as a player, but I do fall for the "high motor" guy as a tie-breaker. I need to see more Cal tape. What I saw was not quite as awesome as I had hoped. Watt does always stand out, but what is he in a 3-4? A 5 technique may require a better anchor vs the run. I love him as a 4-3 end.
Rafael Vela:: I like both Jordan and Watt and think either would improve the defense. I think Jordan can play more spots on the 3-4 front. I've heard that a few teams think he could stand up on 3rd down and rush off the edge, a 290 lb. OLB. Think about that one.
Rafael Vela: If you're a RB you don't want to think about that one.
Bob Sturm: I wondered the same thing about Bowers. Big stand up OLB. Seems crazy, but in this hybrid NFL...
Bob Sturm: Do you have any indication what the Cowboys plan in FA? Is Huff really a priority, or did I make that up in my head?
Rafael Vela: There will be some S prospects out there. Huff concerns me, because I remember talk in his second year that he was a bust. He came on recently, but guys who blow up in their contract year scare me. I'd be a lot more interested in Eric Weddle, if he decides to test the market. But I have no idea what Dallas will do in free agency. Nobody knows what the cap will be. I think that's the biggest issue today.
Bob Sturm: I think this is a good spot to keep them wanting more for next time. www.cowboysnation.com is where Rafael is posting daily. Nice job, sir. Let's do it again soon!
Rafael Vela:Any time.
Bob Sturm: Let's start with a topic we have touched on in the past, and it appears to be one we may disagree on. Give me the official Vela view on Ratliff and his position discussion
Rafael Vela: I think he's a nose. I've written on this before and get a lot of disagreement but rush noses are rare. Only two in the past 28 years have produced at his level of sacks -- Bill Maas and Michael Carter, both in the '80s. I'm not opposed to getting more help for him inside, to rotate him on 1st and 2nd downs and keep him fresh on rush downs, but he's a power and technique guy, not a speed, edge guy. I think you diminish what makes him great moving him to the 5-technique. He's got to beat OTs out there and he's doesn't have the edge speed of a Demarcus Ware or a Bruce Smith.
Bob Sturm: I guess my view is that like moving my shortstop to 3rd, this is largely an odometer issue with me. I move him to DE partly to preserve him from the constant double teams. Is he Jared Allen or Ware on the edge? No. Is he a much better DE pass rusher than anything the Cowboys have seen since they flipped to a 3-4? You have to concede that point. I think his anchor against the run has diminished steadily until it became a rather large issue in 2010. Why should we believe that will improve when he is past age 30? Further, if every 3-4 team of note uses a 330 NT who is a 2-gapper, what are we trying to prove by trying to go against the grain?
Rafael Vela: Who knows? He's never played there. People think he will be, but he'll get double teamed as much on the edge as he will inside. It will be with TE and OTs rather than Cs and Gs, but I don't see it as an odometer issue. OTs are generally bigger than Cs. I looked at this. Only four or five Cs in the entire league outweigh him by 10 or more pounds. The OTs he'll face are on average 20 lbs. heavier than him. I don't want to mess with something that works. I'd rather find a good DE to put next to him. I think he needs a sidekick more than a replacement.
Rafael Vela: Ah, but there's a major misconception. Teams DON"T 2-gap with their NTs. Rob Ryan's brother Rex claims he uses his NT in a 2-gap front at most 15% of the time.
Bob Sturm: Whether they 2 gap or not in principle, you can bet there is a C-G double on his NT on every single 1st and 10 and 2nd and normal situation. That is what requires Hampton, Wilfork, Raji, etc..
Rafael Vela: But I think we're splitting hairs here. Would a bit NT type like a Phil Taylor or Kendrick Ellis help him? Yes. Because they let Jay line up as a 3-technique and get single blocked on Gs. He''s still working inside but with a lot less pressure. I think we're thinking towards the same goal, but getting caught up in nomenclature.
Rafael Vela: Ratliff's problem isn't his size, but that he has not rotation player. I played NT once up a time in high school. Those double teams wear you down. And he's getting what, 700 snaps a season? He needs a sidekick and his sacks go back up. Remember, ALL of the front 7 guys dropped down last year, not just Ratliff. I think this team really missed Todd Grantham, who left to be the DC at Georgia.
Bob Sturm: Fair enough. I guess the issue is whether or not to target a NT to allow options. And how to best utilize the assets and assess the needs. I guess NT would be rather high on my list. Getting Ratliff against a G the way GB does with Jenkins next to Raji or Pickett is ideal. In all, the Cowboys are giving up 100 pounds to the Packers in their front 3. I see that and wonder if we have the right idea.
Bob Sturm: no doubt, the depth issues are the biggest. Blaming Ratliff for the drop off at the line of scrimmage is silly. I am just looking for deployment solutions.
Rafael Vela: Again, we're moving to the same goal. I have NT high on my list. I've been pushing Kendrick Ellis in my mocks for the last few weeks. A big guy like that, who can line up inside or out, makes the whole line better.
Bob Sturm: let's talk about him. Give us your report on Ellis.
Rafael Vela: Kind of the poor man's Phil Taylor. Those are the two top NTs in this bunch. I liked Taylor, but have been hearing for weeks that he may drift into the late 1st round. I like him, but not that much. Dallas can't fool around and pass on an OT in the 1st, in my opinion. Ellis is the next guy. He was around 340 at his All Star game, where he dominated the week and was 333 at his Pro Day. He's quick, powerful and can play across the line. Dallas was scouting him in 'San Antonio and was at his pro day. I was hoping to look at him in the 3rd, but he's another late riser who may get snagged in the late 2nd. If Dallas trades down and gets a second 2nd round pick, he's on the radar, in my opinion.
Rafael Vela: The guy did have some trouble in college, was kicked off the South Carolina squad, but a bunch of teams are comfortable with him, from what I've seen and heard. Dallas appears to be one of them. You put Marcell Dareus, Taylor and Ellis in that big, power DL category, in that order.
Bob Sturm: It is tough to find Hampton tape, but that all-star game is floating around. I do like Taylor quite a bit. I wish he could get to the 2nd.
Bob Sturm: Dareus would be a real shock to get to #9, agree?
Rafael Vela: He might. He's all over the mocks. He could go in the 20s or he could go in the 40s. We won't know until draft day.
Bob Sturm: Dareus would be a real shock to get to #9, agree?
Rafael Vela: No, nobody will shock me. I did a piece last night. Lots of rumors that the QBs are rising; it seems pretty certain that two, Newton and Gabbert, go before Dallas. What would be amazing is seeing a 3rd, a Mallett or a Locker, jump up to say a Tennessee at eight. Then consider this eight man field -- Dareus, Fairley, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Von Miller, Patrick Peterson, Quinn and Bowers. THREE of them will be on the board at 9 if three QBs go high. It could be any of them, though I'd be amazed if Miller and Peterson fell through. But any of those others could.
Bob Sturm: 3 QBs up high? Wow. That would be quite ideal
Rafael Vela: Yes, but I have to say, while I would welcome that, from a Cowboys perspective, I'm still skeptical that a third QB goes that high. But I am hearing it more.
Bob Sturm: I wanted to touch a piece you recently have posted at your site, www.cowboysnation.com about Cowboys drafting patterns. Could you share the premise and then we can talk it out a bit?
http://www.cowboysnation.com/2011/03/gambler-returns-jerry-jones-steps-back.html
Rafael Vela: Yeah, I was noting that the biggest problem for Jerry in his first stint as the ''director'' of drafting was that no risk seemed too high. Look at all the high round busts who had red flags coming in, and who had trouble off the field in the league -- from Kareem Larrimore to Quincy Carter to Antonio Bryant to Derek Ross. Some painful picks, because they were 2nd and 3rd round guys mainly.
Bob Sturm: So, you see signs in this current era that we are back where we were?
Rafael Vela: I've noticed in the last three years, we're seeing more risk taking high that we didn't see in the Parcells years. Martellus Bennett, Jason Williams, Dez Bryant. Boom or bust guys. Bennett is still a headache, Williams is gone and Dez, well, you have to try hard to buy worse publicity.
Rafael Vela: that's why the Cam Newton rumors couldn't be dismissed out of hand last month. He's that shiny object.
Bob Sturm: Ouch. ok. Boom or bust - not just in character or off field, but also boom or bust in player projections. Felix?
Rafael Vela: You and I will disagree on him. I don't see him as a bust. I see a guy whose stuck behind a very bad and decaying line. None of the backs looked good behind it last year. He's still making 60-70 yard TD plays.
Rafael Vela: Newton I should say, is that shiny object Jerry likes to chase.
Bob Sturm: Felix? I don't think he is horrible. I just think the percentages said he was a real risk on draft day. He never carried the ball enough at Arkansas to feel like you knew all of the variables for a #1 in the NFL. Mendenhall was much, much safer. But, safe is not interesting on draft day to Jerry. I wrote this April 23, 2008: http://sturminator.blogspot.com/2008/04/case-against-felix-jones.html
Rafael Vela: No, safe isn't, and that concerns me. The needs of this team are meat and potatoes this year. Fix the lines, maybe add a corner or inside linebacker as well. 'that's never been Jerry's style.
Bob Sturm: What do you think of Cam Newton as a pro prospect?
Rafael Vela: Newton? Scares me as a pro. Not the most accurate pocket passer. Not a rhythm passer. You never know with athlete QBs. Steve Young made the transition, but it took him a while. Vince Young didn't do it. Didn't see enough of Tim Tebow to know how he's doing. I'd rather let another team deal with Newton, especially given his stage dad and Newton's "interesting'' past at Florida and Auburn.
Rafael Vela: On Felix, I saw one game late in Garrett's audition that gave me a lot of encouragement. The Colts game. Tashard got a couple of big runs on the special play, that naked toss after an inside fake where Dwight Freeney got suckered. He got what, two 20 yard runs off it. Felix Jones was used like Marion Barber that game. 22 carries, every one inside the tackles. He finished with a 4.0 yard average, I think. Made the gritty runs and got to finish drives. If he had a better line, it would have been higher. I think that may give the team confidence to give him the ball more, thought a better right side of that O-line would help him a lot.
Bob Sturm: There is no doubt that the lines are the key. We both agree. I refuse to give up on Felix until we know for sure. But, my point is simply, I think he was too much of a question to take in the first place. I suppose I could move on in my life, but I just want to be clear that in a crop that deep at RB, there was no reason to reach for a guy because he was so darn interesting and I cannot forget - went to Arkansas.
Rafael Vela: Well, on Felix and Arkansas -- he remains the only Razorback the Cowboys have drafted in the 23 years Jerry has owned the club.
Bob Sturm: I submit that players on the local radar - Big 12 South and other regional locales have the tiebreaker in the war-room. But, your evidence is compelling.
Rafael Vela:2nd round. Who do you look for at 40? That's the most interesting question for me and maybe the key to this draft.
Bob Sturm: I agree. That is an amazingly solid discussion point. It makes my head spin, because we need about 39 names off the board to know for sure. But, odds are really strong that the two categories of greatest need - OL and DL - should allow the Cowboys to get somebody very solid there. I think this draft plays well for where the Cowboys are and what they need to take.
Bob Sturm: For instance, if you told me either Baylor kid is there - Watkins or Taylor - I would run to the podium. But, the DE/DT/OT/OG crop seems rather thick. I have to believe the Cowboys are in a great position if they stay put and do what needs to be done. 2 starters?
Rafael Vela: Well, I'm looking OL there, even if the Cowboys get one in the 1st somewhere. Last night I was working with two puzzle pieces. If the Cowboys go D-line in the 1st, they're gonna need a RT in the 2nd. Ironclad. And while Gabe Carimi is the name, Danny Watkins is the important one. I talk to Wes Bunting a lot on my site and he was on Watkins back in November, saying he would be a sure 1st rounder if he were 6'5'' instead of 6'3'' and 22 instead of 26.
Bob Sturm: Whoa. For Tackle?
Rafael Vela: His point was Watkins played LT last year as well as any other OT coming out this year. Now, get this. He did a piece last week on the National Football Post talking about arm length, how important that is for OTs. Watkins is not a short-armed guy. If the Cowboys need a quick plug-and-play RT, I think he could be a candidate, even if they go with a Tyron Smith in the 1st and especially if they leave it with a Dareus. Cause Ben Ijalana is a small school guys and like Solder, and perhaps Smith, looks like a guy who might be ready in game 10 or season two, but not in game one.
Bob Sturm: I don't remember one snap at tackle at the Senior Bowl. I think the NFL sees him as a guard. That would be a radical idea. Either way, if Watkins is available, I need no selling because he can play either Guard right now and do it well. If he can also do some tackle, then that is frosting. But, I need two starting guards real soon anyway.
Rafael Vela: As I said, if Dallas took a Smith or a Carimi in the 1st, Watkins would still be a high interest player in the 2nd, because he can play G right away. I've heard rumors some teams think he could also transition to guard, though I was told he didn't handle any snaps there at the Senior Bowl.
Bob Sturm: But, you are not going to make decisions on draft day based on the ability to start week 1, are you? That would seem short sighted to me. If Ijalana is the better prospect, I can wait a year for the payoff.
Rafael Vela: Yeah, I'm hoping the team won't base that 2nd round pick on instant impact, but these are the Cowboys. I'm afraid they will. Look at Sean Lee last year and how they were force feeding him to get him ready for week one. They fully expected Dez Bryant and Sean Lee to start in week one.
Rafael Vela: Same reason I like Stefan Wisniewski. Can play C and could give you some guard if needed.
Bob Sturm: I like his tape, too.
Bob Sturm: Is Stephen Paea a player of interest in this scheme at #40?
Rafael Vela:: I think that's gonna affect their thinking, regardless of what Stephen Jones said this past week about best player available. I've heard Paea project better to a 3 technique in a 4-3, rather than as a nose, despite the amazing bench at the Combine. I haven't looked at him too much.
Bob Sturm:: I can only remember Rob Ryan losing his mind in that weight room. Silly connection to make, but I am guilty.
Rafael Vela:: But Rob Ryan plays multiple fronts in his scheme. He'll take a good interior player with some versatility.
Bob Sturm: You know, the idea of the trade back from #9 and hope to pick up a pick in the #50-#60 range is so very interesting and perfect for the Cowboys. Of all of the names and scenarios, this is the one you have been focusing on and it should really be the focus of all involved.
Rafael Vela: If they really love Carimi, it makes sense to move down to 17 or 18. Hope the QB go high and a plus pass rusher gets to 9. That should get Dallas an extra 2nd rounder.
Bob Sturm: In that #50-#60 range should be players like Rahim Moore, Brooks Reed, and perhaps Rodney Hudson.
Bob Sturm:To snag an extra one of those types could turn this thing on a dime in their favor. Carimi, Watkins, and Moore? Wow. I love that before they are on the clock in the 3rd.
Rafael Vela: I don't like any of those guys, to be honest. Moore ran a 4.62 at Indy.
Reed is a workout warrior and Hudson is what, 292? Unless he's added 15 lbs. I don't know about, I don't see him as a Cowboys prospect. I don't like any safeties in the first 3 rounds. Lets face it, Dallas doesn't know how to draft them and this is a terrible year for safeties. If they take one in the first 3 rounds, I'm putting low odds on success.
Bob Sturm:Moore plays CF pretty well. But, I admit, he is only the best safety in a bad year. I might challenge you on Reed. His tape is quite impressive. I don't care about workouts like I do about college production and tape. I think Reed is a real solid 3-4 OLB prospect.
Rafael Vela: But in the 2nd round? Reed?
Bob Sturm: Reed in the 50's? yes. If I have an extra 2nd, I would think it through. But, not with #40.
Rafael Vela: I'm looking O-line, D-line and ILB in the 2nd. Maybe CB at the back end. But that's me.
Bob Sturm: I know. But, by #50, you better consider best player on your board a bit more. If Reed can cause havoc on passing downs from the edge, I would think is worthy, but we are spending way too much time on Brooks Reed.
Bob Sturm: Talk to me about JJ Watt.
Rafael Vela: I like J.J., but I have a lot of other guys I like more in that 1st. He's a very, very productive player, tested well. What impressed me watching him this year was how often he got his hands on the football as a DE. Caused a lot of fumbles, got into passing lanes when he was blocked. Knocked down a lot of passes. He's that ''football player'' teams talk a lot about. I just wonder if he'll be a good but not great pro and people will give him the Marcus Spears treatment. Because if he's drafted by Dallas, will will likely be in the same range where Spears was taken.
Bob Sturm: Compare with Cam Jordan?
Rafael Vela: Pretty similar players. I think Jordan is a better pass rusher, but they're gonna rate about the same, so the Cowboys may like Watt more. It's like Fairley and Dareus, but one click down. Which do you prefer?
Bob Sturm: I think I like Jordan more as a player, but I do fall for the "high motor" guy as a tie-breaker. I need to see more Cal tape. What I saw was not quite as awesome as I had hoped. Watt does always stand out, but what is he in a 3-4? A 5 technique may require a better anchor vs the run. I love him as a 4-3 end.
Rafael Vela:: I like both Jordan and Watt and think either would improve the defense. I think Jordan can play more spots on the 3-4 front. I've heard that a few teams think he could stand up on 3rd down and rush off the edge, a 290 lb. OLB. Think about that one.
Rafael Vela: If you're a RB you don't want to think about that one.
Bob Sturm: I wondered the same thing about Bowers. Big stand up OLB. Seems crazy, but in this hybrid NFL...
Bob Sturm: Do you have any indication what the Cowboys plan in FA? Is Huff really a priority, or did I make that up in my head?
Rafael Vela: There will be some S prospects out there. Huff concerns me, because I remember talk in his second year that he was a bust. He came on recently, but guys who blow up in their contract year scare me. I'd be a lot more interested in Eric Weddle, if he decides to test the market. But I have no idea what Dallas will do in free agency. Nobody knows what the cap will be. I think that's the biggest issue today.
Bob Sturm: I think this is a good spot to keep them wanting more for next time. www.cowboysnation.com is where Rafael is posting daily. Nice job, sir. Let's do it again soon!
Rafael Vela:Any time.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Sam Monson Chat
http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2011/01/bob-sturm-chats-cowboys-with-n.html
Sam Monson is a member of ProFootballFocus.com - a website that I really appreciate and enjoy. The depth of their independent NFL research is admirable and I use the site frequently when doing my Cowboys and NFL analysis. I chatted with Monson recently and wanted you to have a chance to review his thoughts on their research and grading, as well as your Cowboys:
Sam Monson is a member of ProFootballFocus.com - a website that I really appreciate and enjoy. The depth of their independent NFL research is admirable and I use the site frequently when doing my Cowboys and NFL analysis. I chatted with Monson recently and wanted you to have a chance to review his thoughts on their research and grading, as well as your Cowboys:
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