Thursday, March 15, 2012

Stars Road Trip All Time Results

2/14/04 At Pho L 3-2
2/16/04 At Ana L 1-3
2/18/04 At LA W 4-3

3/5/06 At Chi W 7-2
3/7/06 At Edm W 4-3
3/9/06 At Cal L 1-0
3/11/06 At Van W 2-1

3/21/07 At LA W 4-2
3/23/07 At Ana OTL 3-2
3/24/07 At Pho W 4-3

3/27/08 at SJ OTL 3-2
3/29/08 at LA W 7-2
3/30/08 at Ana OTL 3-2

3/3/09 at SJ W 4-1
3/5/09 at LA OTL 5-4
3/6/09 at ANA W 3-2

3/6/10 at Pitt L 6-3
3/8/10 at Was W 4-3
3/10/10 at Buf L 5-3

2/15/11 at Edm L 4-1
2/16/11 at Cal L 4-2
2/19/11 at Van L 5-2

3/13/12 at Minn W 1-0
3/14/12 at Winn L 5-2

11-9-4

2-0 is nice, Musers. Call us when you are this many. JK, LOL, MFM! (Musers for Mornings)

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

The Value Of The Goaltender


It was almost a month ago when the season seemed dead and gone. I will be the first to admit that I did not think the Dallas Stars had much chance of reviving their 2011-12 and figuring out a way to challenge hard for the playoffs for the first time in 4 years. You'll have to forgive my pessimism, but at the time, 2 straight wins was a rarity and 3 straight? Nearly impossible. Now, they have won 10 of their last 11. Who knew?

Roughly around Valentine’s Day, it was certainly my idea to sell, sell, sell in the NHL marketplace and consider moving assets to set up a better position for the franchise in the summer time when cap room and cash on hand would allow the Stars to make bold strikes in an attempt to finally get the mix right.

And looking back, I still suggest that there were no signs on hand that they were about to go on their best run in years. They were mediocre in goals scored and mediocre in goals allowed. They were bottom third in the league in power play and bottom third in the league in penalty kill. They were being out-shot by a healthy margin and they just flat-out looked like a team that was undermanned, underfunded, and underwhelming.

Since a loss to Nashville on Feb 19, a game that was both gutting and seemingly the final whimper on the way to the trade market, the Stars have been on a trot of historic proportions. They have pulled 21 of a possible 22 points in the last 11 games (a run that has not been exceeded since a 12 game run in 2002-03), and shot up the standings in a way that nobody following the team could have anticipated.

There are many reasons that could be listed for such a run, but as stated above, none of them seemed to be possible just a few weeks back. Somehow, the team has figured out how to play airtight hockey with a unified effort that requires precise execution. Timely scoring makes it all possible, but it starts with a team that makes sure it is not digging holes for itself on its own end of the ice by conceding too often.

And, that little trick, the one that is so valuable in hockey where you do not beat yourself nor allow your defense to be shredded, begins and ends with a goaltender that is on the top of his game.

Which is where Kari Lehtonen clearly finds himself. In Kari’s last 9 starts, he has a record of 8-0-1, with a 1.29 Goals against average and a .955 save percentage. Those statistics represent a player who is in top form, and is locked in to pucks that are flying at high velocity all around him. And yet, he finds the puck, freezes it, or sends the rebound to a place where he is comfortable.

The Stars are getting goaltending at an elite level, and when that is what happens, your blue-line gains confidence and self belief. Your penalty kill suddenly looks capable. And your game plans of shutting down some of the best lines in hockey starts to fall in to place as reasonable and attainable goals.

For the season, the tandem of Lehtonen and his backups, Andrew Raycroft early and Richard Bachman ever since have put together a team save percentage of .917. That mark is better than anything the Stars have seen since 2002-03 as well, and right there with the marks of the two teams that went to the Stanley Cup Finals in 1999 and 2000. In other words, the Stars are stopping pucks again at a very high level.

Last season it was .910 and the year before it was .905. While those slight percentage points might not impress you, understand that based on 2500 shots over the course of a season, that means 238 goals scored in 2010, 225 in 2011, and a pace for about 207 this season. If you missed the playoffs last year by a single point in the standings, you can understand how chopping 18 goals off the ledger against the same number of shots (assuming that is true) can mean. And that is the interesting part; the Stars are conceding about the same number of shots under Glen Gulatzan as they did under Marc Crawford (30.8 to 30.5).

So, on Tuesday night in Minnesota, when the Stars are clinging to a 1-goal lead, Kari was called upon to make 25 saves to preserve his 4th shutout of the season and his 2nd shutout in a row. And with :03 left in the game, he turned Kyle Brodziak away from point blank range to save the day yet again. He simply doesn’t miss when the game is on the line.

What makes Kari so good are a few things in my estimation:

#1) He makes THAT save at THAT moment. This is obviously impossible to prove. But, if you watch this team game after game for year after year, you know that the Stars last franchise goalie – Marty Turco – did not have a knack for this. It did seem that there were often cases where Turco would give up a bad goal at just the wrong time. Again, this is admittedly subjective, and yet, I can’t imagine that that very many people would argue it.

#2) He is always in the right spot. This is a tough trick for goalies because at the heart of every fan’s perception is the high-light reel goals. Did you see that goalie with the crazy kick save or glove beauty? Kari makes his share of awesome saves, but where Lehtonen is really good is when he just makes himself big and takes a puck off the center of his logo. This won’t inspire DVDs of his magical saves, but it means he is always position-sound and knows where the puck is. And his feel for rebound control is outstanding as well.

#3) His confidence is contagious. You can feel it around this team at all times. They believe they have a great goalie. Beyond that, very little else often matters in this sport. It changes the swagger of the team and the belief that a defenseman can jump into the rush or that a penalty can be taken and that Kari will make sure that he bails out any mates that require a little assistance from the man watching the store. A good goalie makes everyone taller and faster. A bad one makes everyone look worse.

The conclusion is that this team is on a shocking run and they have what everyone says you need to make a run like this – a goalie that is in the zone. In fact, to make matters better, the Stars also appear to have a backup in the talented and you Bachman that indicates you can go into Vancouver and Chicago and still get wins with your backup. Bachman has done exactly what the Stars have always needed from a backup – play once every 10 days and still keep the results at the team averages – his save percentage and goals-against levels are right where you need them.

It has been 2 years since Joe Nieuwendyk traded for what he thought was a franchise goaltender when he sent a well-regarded prospect, Ivan Vishnevskiy, to Atlanta for Lehtonen. Vishnevskiy is now playing professionally in the KHL in Russia, while the Stars are visiting Atlanta’s franchise that now lives in Winnipeg in a bit of a tangential reunion.

Very few would challenge the wisdom of that trade, and while many at the time (including me) wondered the wisdom of the Stars keeping this band together at the 2012 trade deadline, it seems rather clear that this run wouldn’t have happened if GM Joe did anything to build for the future.

The future looks like it could be now. And Lehtonen gives them a chance to really make a splash this spring.

Monday, March 12, 2012

How the Mavericks Made Me Think of U2


Watching the Dallas Mavericks crash and burn over the weekend in a 3-game road trip against teams that are more than beatable was not an easy thing to do for most fans of the defending NBA Champion. The fact that in the 4th Quarter of Friday's loss in Sacramento and Saturday's loss at Golden State there wasn't a single moment where the Mavericks trailed by less than double digits pretty much said all that needed to be said about such a horrid stretch. They were having trouble just staying competitive on the road again.

Heading into this stretch of 9 games in 12 nights coming out of the All-Star break, nobody had high hopes for the oldest team in the league. The idea was to do everything possible to remember that this is not vital and that minutes need to continue to be monitored. Stay the course and try to get through it with 4 or 5 wins and be happy. The one saving grace of the schedule is that they were going to play all of the bottom feeders in the Western Conference, so at least the schedule seemed to go easy on them. Unless, they would go to New Orleans, Phoenix, Sacramento, and Golden State and lose every single one of them (and at Memphis and Oklahoma City as well).

For good measure, they lost to New Jersey at home, too, leaving just home wins against Utah and New York to grab 2 wins in 9 games and to leave this stretch badly beaten and perhaps coming apart at the seams.

The Mavericks sit at 23-20 after only a few weeks back being a 21-12 team that had a measure of belief that they were on their way again. Now, they cling to the bottom of the playoff picture wondering if they can hold off the young and hungry teams nipping at their heels for the final playoff spots.

And it was during this weekend of watching the Mavs that I did what nobody else watching this team likely did; I thought about U2. That's right, my favorite band popped in my head as I watched a team that was everybody's favorite squad go through a very tough stretch. Could that possibly make any sense?

Recently, I watched a great U2 documentary, "From the Sky Down" about the band's reinvention after Rattle and Hum in the early 1990's that resulted in the album, "Achtung, Baby" and what has followed for the last two decades. For reasons of creativity and perceived staleness, the band wanted to "reinvent" everything they did and try to remain a top group by throwing out what made them successful and in their words, "go away for a while and dream it up all over again".

How could U2 and the Dallas Mavericks be categorized together in my head while watching a blow-out in Golden State? I recalled a quote from the documentary that seemed to fit. It was Bono talking about being in the middle of the old band and the new band and feeling like they were neither fish nor fowl: "You have to reject one expression of the band first before you can get to the next expression, and in between, you have nothing. You have to risk it all."

The premise was simple, if they were going to truly transform from what they were to what they were to become, they had to reject the old group and embrace what was ahead. But, in between was scary and unpleasant to say the least.

Now, here is where the comparison breaks down. The band members bought into the transformation, because they knew that if there was going to be a U2 moving forward, all 4 members of the band were invited to be part of the next phase.

With the Mavericks, the next phase of this basketball franchise will include only a small few of the group that earned a spot in basketball immortality in June of 2011. Which takes us back to last December.

Mark Cuban had a decision to make. A major, major decision. Would he keep his defending champions together now that the new collective bargain agreement was going to complicate that financially with a much stiffer luxury tax, or would he make the very difficult short-term decision to allow Tyson Chandler and JJ Barea to walk, thus allowing him to compete in the summer of 2012 for that next franchise player(s) and that next evolution of Dallas Mavericks basketball.

They were an old team that won the title. So old that people thought the age was their biggest enemy, as the young legs in Oklahoma City or Miami could wear them down in a series. But, it didn't happen. Now, Cuban could double-down and keep everything intact, or he could play the percentages and take his winnings and now try to turn the roster over for the start of 2012-13.

But, what would that mean for 2011-12? And more importantly, what would that make the next 6 months like for all of those warriors who battled for the prize last season, but knew all along that they were not part of the master plan moving forward? Surely, they would feel like the dumped girlfriend, but unlike the poor girl, you have to work with Jason Terry, Jason Kidd, Brendan Haywood, and maybe even Shawn Marion, every day until the summer. They would be pros, but deep down inside they knew that you choose to turn the page instead of letting them properly defend what they earned until someone on the court took them down.

That is the natural order of these things. Bands seldom realize before it is too late that they are getting stale. They keep playing the same songs until nobody shows up at their concerts. They shrink the venues and the tours and embrace that all good things come to an end.

But, in sports, you know it is over when you are defeated. Only, the Mavericks weren't defeated. The 2011 Mavericks were champions, and then their owner decided that they would not defend their title in the name of the big picture. Only, the big picture would not include many of the players on the court - just the people making the decisions and a few select players would be invited to stay.

This is the difference between fantasy sports and real sports; In fantasy sports, when you make a move, you don't have to factor in how the locker-room will feel. But, in real sports, the locker-room knows that you are asking them to play a season while packing up their belongings to move wherever the league takes them when they are free in 2012. Play a season, play hard for each other, but Terry knows that he is looking for work when free agency opens this summer. Say nothing about the new guys, like, Vince Carter, Delonte West, and Lamar Odom, who are all likely playing in Dallas for what amounts to 4 or 5 months before they continue their careers at another locale. Sometimes, you would never know that there could be 12 different agendas in the room. They are paid to play hard and for each other and they should do what they are paid handsomely to do.

But, other times, they are the rejected girlfriend. They will simply go through the motions because they know you don't care to keep them around, and just like JJ, Chandler, and the championship team, you are going to replace them if you have your way in the summer when you can court a newer, younger model named Deron or Dwight (or both!).

Bono said, "in between, you have nothing. You have to risk it all." It appears this shortened 66-game season is the "in between". And it seems when watching this stretch of 7 consecutive road losses (the worst stretch since 1999) that the Mavericks are experiencing that feeling of nothing. They also seem to have risked it all to play in free agency in the summer.

Now, I have been wrong before. The Mavericks won the title in a year where I thought Portland would take them down. They can still get out of this mess by kicking their season in to high gear. But, last year they were playing for each other. This year, when you look at their faces, you wonder if they have a cause worth fighting for. Many know they are being discarded with full wallets and a ring on their finger.

But, aside from Dirk Nowitzki, who really knows they are being invited back?

Cuban was willing to risk it all. He obviously believes in his vision of where this franchise will be in 3 years. Only time will tell if he got this gamble right. In between, it is tough to watch.

Thursday, March 08, 2012

The Case for Cortland Finnegan


The following is part 2 of a 2-part series, where we take a look at the two most likely candidates to be the Cowboys top target in free agency as they attempt to fix their cornerback issues. Yesterday, we looked hard at Brandon Carr of Kansas City in the same manner. Today, it is Tennessee's Cortland Finnegan:

Cortland Finnegan - Samford - Born February 2, 1984

If the comparison between Brandon Carr and Cortland Finnegan went by name recognition, we could end the study right now. Finnegan is well-known around the NFL with all of his moments that have been shown over and over again, both showing his excellence and his emotional boiling point which does not seem particularly difficult to achieve. More on that in a moment.

Jeff Fisher and the Tennessee Titans front office may not be thought of as the best developers of Quarterback play after the Vince Young experiment, but if there is one thing that organization understands, it is defense. And the cornerback position in general is something that any team can be jealous of. Last season, they had 3 corners that played the vast majority of their snaps. Finnegan was taken #215 of the 2006 draft. He was joined by Jason McCourty who was #203 in 2009 and Alterraun Verner who was the high pick of the three, taken #104 in 2010. And because they keep finding starting caliber corners deep in the draft, they allow them to replace the older, more expensive models on an annual basis rather than pay them the going rate of strong, veteran corners. And that is how they can elect to allow Finnegan, a team captain in 2011, to take his talents elsewhere next week.

Finnegan at 5'10 (if he is lucky) and weighing 190 (barely) is a smallish-to-average sized corner by many standards and certainly not imposing in the NFL. But, when it comes to a player who is willing to give you every ounce of battle and effort and to sacrifice his body to make a play while fighting for every last inch of real estate, I think you would be hard pressed to find anything better than Finnegan.

Like Carr, he entered the league without any regard to speak of. His size and 4.54 time in the 40-yard dash was rather unremarkable and being another small college guy (Samford), he was a guy who many teams didn't even have on their board. Here is his draft profile from Sports Illustrated:


POSITIVES: Athletic prospect with marginal size. Instinctive and quickly locates the ball. Explodes up the field in run defense, works hard in coverage and has a quick break to the play. Tenacious punt returner who follows blocks throughout the play.

NEGATIVES: Undersized, not strong at the point and has tackles broken. Struggles in man coverage when his back is to the ball.

ANALYSIS: A high-revving defender, Finnegan would be an asset on special teams in the NFL. Undrafted Free Agent


Since joining the league, he has only returned punts rarely, and has stopped altogether in recent years. But, that has more to do with establishing his play as a corner back who never backs down to anyone. As a cover man, he is certainly not a shut-down corner. He is a ball hawk and a battler, but he will be beaten his share, especially when he is going up against the large receivers. In fact, his tactics occasionally resemble Terence Newman on the outside when he is in off-and-soft man coverage, allowing a 8 yard cushion and then in a back pedal that allows the rather easy pitch and catch 20 yard out when the timing is right.

There is a lot of information going around the internet these days about Finnegan, including the claim that he is strictly a slot corner in Tennessee. I can tell you after watching much of his season this week that this is just not true. Yes, he does play in the slot a fair amount, but in normal personal packages, he is out on the edge all by himself doing what corners do. He played more than any Tennessee defender, so to compare his 1142 snaps with Orlando Scandrick's 679 as I have seen done this week is just crazy talk. Yes, he will play in the slot a lot. But, he can and will also play out wide and handle himself just fine.

But, I will admit that as an outside corner, he is above average, but not excellent. As a slot corner, he is very good and the type of guy who you can really see as an asset against the likes of Victor Cruz. He also can and will blitz and is equally effective in run blitz situations where he often blows up running plays with his reckless abandon. Where he gets into trouble in the slot is when teams get him to lock up with a tight end. Then, the size disadvantage - especially near the goal-line - can get him into trouble with 6'5 tight ends who weigh over 250 pounds. Joel Dreessen posted him up in Houston for a TD and Matt Willis (who is not terribly big) blocked off Finnegan inside the 5 as well for Denver. But, those were the only two touchdowns he allowed all year.

It certainly must be said that his emotional edge is something that is both attractive and disconcerting. I say that because he might be exactly what the defense needs as an emotional voice with a decorated resume that could not only lead by example but also challenge with his voice and perhaps inspire those who can go either way with their resolve to press forward. On the other hand, his repeated fights and losses of composure look to be both a headache and a bothersome habit that could rob you of one of your best players as he gets himself ejected. He is willing to fight and walking a fine line. His battles with Andre Johnson are legendary, and he has had a handful of other incidents that has made his name a regular at the league offices. Most of those incidents happened in 2010, which also was statistically his worst year. That may not be a coincidence.

He is as amped up as any player you watch, and that helps because he is often playing in games where his team was out of the game quite early. But, there is Finnegan, playing as if each play had the game on the line. Watching him run down plays from behind when he is on the other side of the field as he did against Pittsburgh on a long Jonathan Dwyer run was impressive to show that he was never conceding an inch. His motor is always running and he is not averse to taking on bigger players to make a play. There really are few equals in the NFL where you can find a player of his stature never back down to anything, including a 320 pound pulling guard trying to run him over. He is up for any challenge, and when he is in charge of his emotions, he is a very valuable player. And, he specializes in making his opponent lose their composure in the process.

At the same time, he has had some very good seasons and some very ordinary seasons. In 2011, his statistical year was really good, as he allowed only 456 yards while playing 1,142 plays. You will not see that ratio much. However, he did not spend a lot of time locking down premier receivers. Tennessee had him moving around a lot, almost like Green Bay did with Charles Woodson, and left the close cover match ups to the other capable corners. It is a nice luxury that the Titans had, but in Dallas, they will want him to be able to fix the inability to cover for long swaths of the game.

Here are his 4-year stats from www.profootballfocus.com:



YearSnapsCompAttYardsQB Rating
20081010477959956.9
2009864427252861.6
201012097010579497.1
20111142528245681.1

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Summary: Finnegan would immediately be the Cowboys' best corner, but I do think his cover ability on the edge should not be over-solid as nothing better than solid. However, his versatility to play a dangerous role as a slot/blitzer type where he can be a playmaker is appealing, but to accomplish that fully, you might consider taking a corner in the draft in the 1st or 2nd round as well, while attempting to move Scandrick to the edge (which has been speculated recently anyway as a plan the Cowboys think is reasonable). Finnegan's appeal is largely based on his intangibles, where he can not only play corner for you, but perhaps immediately move into a leadership role and an emotional conscience for many of his mates. This should not be underestimated, but it should also not cost $45 million to fill that role. He has a very talented skill set, but he also has to be used properly.

So, Carr or Finnegan?

In my mind, after watching them both carefully, I give the edge to Carr for 3 reasons. His age (2 years younger), his size, and his superior cover skills in a press cover situation against another team's top wide out. Carr does not tackle or blitz like Finnegan, and he also does not possess those leadership intangibles. Of course, he will never get ejected for punching a player, either, if history is our guide. I love Finnegan's physical play, but I wonder if you can give a guy who plays like "every game is his last" can hold up physically at that size for 5 years at big money, too.

Either player will be a big acquisition that will improve this defense as the team moves on from Newman. I would think the Cowboys will negotiate with both to attempt to keep the prices in check by leveraging each against the other. But, if forced to choose, I would prefer to play even a little more to get the bigger Brandon Carr.

The Case for Brandon Carr


The following is part 1 of a 2-part series, where we take a look at the two most likely candidates to be the Cowboys top target in free agency as they attempt to fix their cornerback issues. Tomorrow, we will break down Cortland Finnegan in the same manner, and attempt to render a decision.

Brandon Carr - Grand Valley State - Born: May 19, 1986

As the 5th round of the 2008 NFL Draft was starting, most football fans had found something else to do with their time. Drafts carry big ratings numbers and intrigue early on, but the late stages are only for the hardest of hard core folks, and the people that make or break their personnel department careers on finding gems when 135 players have already been picked over in the first 4 rounds.

The Cowboys picked 8th in the 5th round, and had already taken a cornerback in the 1st round (Mike Jenkins) and wanted to find some more depth now in the 5th. The fifth pick of the round was Kansas City, who also selected a cornerback earlier in the weekend, when they snagged Brandon Flowers with the 35th pick of the draft. And with pick #140, they found their other starting corner for the next 4 years, another Brandon, Brandon Carr of Grand Valley State. Zack Bowman went to the Bears at #142 and then the Cowboys took Orlando Scandrick at #143. We will never know if the Cowboys were annoyed Carr or Bowman were gone when they went on the clock, but now the possibility exists that the Cowboys top 3 corners in 2012 could all be from the 2008 draft.

Carr was so underwhelming as a small college prospect that he was not invited to the 2008 NFL Combine, nor did he warrant even a mention in the Our Lads Draft Guide for the 2008 season. They did list his 40 time from his pro day as 4.47, his height at 6'0 and his weight at 205. Here is a brief synopsis of his draft scouting report from the league's website:


Positives: Prototypical size for corner, tall with decent build and nice arm span. ... Shows good hands for the interception and can high-point the ball. ... Turns and runs with receivers well, showing good speed and the ability to maintain position. ... Plays in the slot at times, but is best on the outside.

Negatives: A better athlete than football player. ... Does not play as physically or aggressively as you'd like with his size. ... He does not press much and is only adequate coming up in run support or getting off receiver blocks. ... Marginal backpedal, and plays a bit high. ... Rough transition against smaller, quicker receivers.


Since draft day of 2008, he has played 4,242 snaps for the Chiefs as a starting corner who has hardly left the field. He has been healthy, effective, and improving each season. In 2009, league QB's had a 99.7 rating when passing at him. IN 2010, it dropped to below the league average at 80.4, and this year it was way near the bottom at 61.7. Cynics will point out that he has enjoyed a steady diet of QBs from Oakland and Denver recently, including two Tim Tebow starts as well as a chance to play Curtis Painter, Caleb Hanie, and even Donovan McNabb in Minnesota. But, the counter to that is that this season the Chiefs also dealt with Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, and of course, Phil Rivers twice each season.

I will be the first to admit that my NFC leanings have not led me to very much of his work that comes quickly to mind, so I took it upon myself to spend the last few days watching as many of his snaps and moments in 2011 that I could fit in. Easily viewing hundreds of his snaps has allowed me to draw some conclusions from both the television copies and some time with the "full 22" copies so that we can see how he looks when he leaves the screen of the networks. I am certainly no football coach, but I have learned that simply observing a player with your own eyes and ideas of what the position calls for can help anyone figure out their own opinion of a player rather than counting on someone else to do it for them and regurgitate opinions or try to apply meaning to statistics.

Carr is a very impressive player, and as anyone who follows the Cowboys can imagine, his 6'0 frame while weighing almost 210 is a welcome change from the normally 5'9 corners the Cowboys seem to routinely run out over the last few seasons. Size matters in this league and although the Eagles employ midget receivers, the Giants do not, and Hakeem Nicks is just 10 months older than Dez Bryant, so he is not going anywhere for a while. It might make a lot of sense to get a corner who has a nice combination of size and speed.

Carr has real good wheels for a player his size and was only beaten over the top one time all season from what I saw. Devin Aromashodu did beat him for a perfectly executed "go" route in Week 4 as McNabb laid a great pass over the top, but that was it. Otherwise, most completions against Carr were either quick outs when the Chiefs were in a soft zone or comebacks as Carr cheats to the over-the-top moves (which is always a reasonable plan when you have no safety help). The other thing that teams seemed to use against him were simple drag routes and the Patriots ran plenty of tight ends at him on the Monday Night in Foxboro.

He had just one game all season where at team found over 60 yards at his expense. Detroit completed 4 of 6 passes at Carr for 70 yards, but otherwise, he held everyone to very little. Brandon Marshall gave Carr issues with his underneath work due to Marshall's strength, but Carr can overpower just about everyone who was thrown at him.

As the season went along (perhaps the coaching change influenced this, but I do not pretend to know all the nuances of the Chiefs' 2011 season), Kansas City switched their coverages from plenty of zone to a ton of press coverage man-to-man. Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr both look better in the press situations, and maybe his best game was against the Jets where he was pressing Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress all day and held the Jets to no completions at him the entire game. Then, the next week, Aaron Rodgers threw 6 balls at Carr, completing just 1 for 8 yards. His final 5 weeks totaled the following incredible stat-line: 5 completions surrendered on 21 attempts at his man, for just 51 yards total and 2 Interceptions for a QB rating of 0. That's right, 0, against Caleb Hanie, Mark Sanchez, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer, and Tim Tebow.

Carr is a strong cover man, but we should be clear that he is not a blitzing player on any level. He rushed the passer 1 time in 2011 in 1,030 snaps. The Chiefs just left their two outside corners out to cover (Flowers never blitzed).

Another thing, I have heard many people bring up Brandon Flowers as the Chiefs true #1 corner. And that is clear when they paid him last September with a 6-year, $49.3 million deal. But, on the field, Flowers wasn't always taking the best receiver. The Chiefs lined up Flowers to the left side and Carr to the right side on virtually every snap I watched. There was no straight match-ups, it was purely based on the side of the field, so I don't buy that Flowers always took the #1 receiver. I saw Carr against everyone.

Carr is just 25 years old, and he will turn 26 in May. He is not completely perfect, as his interest in being a big contributor in stopping the run seems to be modest at best. He will tackle when called upon, but he is certainly not pushing people out of the way to get a running back to the ground. But, he is a press corner who seems to enjoy turning and running with a receiver as a shadow.

I am a little concerned about his 4 year trend (see below) as it speaks of either a contract year performance or the natural progression of a corner figuring things out as he becomes a veteran. Unfortunately, you will need to pay between $40 and $50 million to find out which it is. Stats courtesy of www.profootballfocus.com



YearSnapsCompAttYardsQB Rating
20081041639575488.7
20091088488572099.1
201010835011076780.4
20111030397951161.7

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So, is he as good as he was in 2011 at the age of 25? And can we consider those numbers relevant in the NFC East?

Summary: He is not Darrell Revis. The idea that signing him would instantly make the Cowboys a team that has Deion Sanders in his prime shutting down one side of the field is silly. But, he would be a great addition as a big corner who loves press coverage and that won't back down to physical receivers, but also doesn't seem to get beat over the top. He is not going to shut them down, but he will hold his own. He is going to be very expensive as he has everything going for him, including position scarcity, size, and age. It seems the going rate for strong corners in free agency is about 5 years/$50 million, and I believe he will get close to that. if the Cowboys get him in here, I think they will be very pleased.

But, is he the perfect and ideal fit? Let's look at Cortland Finnegan tomorrow, before we answer that last question.

Wednesday, March 07, 2012

I Love Documentaries - Part 3

I am a man of few interests outside of sports, it seems. Just about everything I do other than being an All-American dad and husband seems to relate in some way, shape, or form to the wonderful world of sports. I have no regrets nor apologies for this truth, just thankful that I found a living where that makes some sense.

However, somewhere very high on my list of hobbies that do not involve sports (usually) would be watching documentaries. Pretty crazy, right? Documentaries to me are simply the non-fiction department in your bookstore, and they simply remind me that real life is better than 90% of stories that are imagined and created.

What you are about to read is my 3rd list of "Bob's approved documentaries". These are not all 5 stars out of 5, but rather documentaries I have seen since last time I did a list that I deem to be worth your time. I watch quite a few more than these, but the following 24 docs passed my test for keeping me properly entertained for 90 minutes to 2 hours.

Please note: There are no 30 for 30's, HBO Sports documentaries or any other sports films, really, on this list. I may do sports docs at another time, but I didn't want to include them on this list, because there are already 2 dozen films on here.

Also, Please note: I don't have a "Top 10" of all-time list. Again, maybe somewhere down the road, but I don't know how to compare drastically different films and ideas against each other real well. Maybe later.

List #1 from August, 2008 is here: I love documentaries, Part 1. That list includes 25 films.

List #2 from March, 2010 is here: I love documentaries, Part 2. And that list includes 14 more.

So, add in these 24 and you now have 63 films to watch next time you are looking for a good documentary. Many of them are available right now for instant streaming on Netflix or iTunes, so I don't want to hear you are bored again.

The New List - Docs I have seen in the last 24 months that I really like (in no particular order):

Good Hair (2009) - Chris Rock explores the wonders of African-American hairstyles.



Taxi To The Dark Side (2007) - An in-depth look at the torture practices of the United States in Afghanistan, Iraq and Guantanamo Bay, focusing on an innocent taxi driver in Afghanistan who was tortured and killed in 2002.

Superheroes (2011) - A journey inside the world of real life caped crusaders. From all over America, these self-proclaimed crime fighters, don masks, homemade costumes and elaborate utility belts in an attempt to bring justice to evildoers everywhere.

God Grew Tired of Us (2006) - Four boys from Sudan embark on a journey to America after years of wandering Sub-Saharan Africa in search of safety.



The Devil and Daniel Johnston (2005) - Daniel Johnston, manic-depressive genius singer/songwriter/artist is revealed in this portrait of madness, creativity and love.

Inside Job (2010) - Takes a closer look at what brought about the financial meltdown.

Catfish (2010) - Filmmakers Ariel Schulman and Henry Joost document a story involving Ariel's brother, Nev, a 24-year-old New York-based photographer, and Abby, from rural Michigan who contacts Nev via Facebook, asking for permission to make a painting from one of his photographs.

Food, Inc (2008) - An unflattering look inside America's corporate controlled food industry.

Exit Through the Gift Shop (2010) - The story of how an eccentric French shop keeper and amateur film maker attempted to locate and befriend Banksy, only to have the artist turn the camera back on its owner.



WalMart: The High Price of Low Cost (2005) - A look at the impact of the retail giant on local communities.

Dear Zachary: A Letter to a Son About His Father (2008) - A filmmaker decides to memorialize a murdered friend when his friend's ex-girlfriend announces she is expecting his son.

The Cove (2009) - Using state-of-the-art equipment, a group of activists, led by renowned dolphin trainer Ric O'Barry, infiltrate a cove near Taijii, Japan to expose both a shocking instance of animal abuse and a serious threat to human health.



Deep Water (2006) - A documentary about the disastrous 1968 round-the-world yacht race.

The Wild and Wonderful Whites of West Virginia (2009) - A year in the life of the White family, well known for Jesco White, the star of the "Dancing Outlaw" documentary.

Pearl Jam 20 (2011) - A documentary on the band Pearl Jam that marks their 20th anniversary in the year 2011.

Beats Rhymes & Life: The Travels of a Tribe Called Quest (2011) - Michael Rapaport documents the inner workings and behind the scenes drama that follows this innovative and influential band to this day.

Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work (2010) - A documentary on the life and career of Joan Rivers, made as the comedienne turns 75 years old.

Restrepo (2010) - A year with one platoon in the deadliest valley in Afghanistan.



Page One: Inside the NY Times (2011) - Unprecedented access to the New York Times newsroom yields a complex view of the transformation of a media landscape fraught with both peril and opportunity.

Senna (2010) - A documentary on Brazilian Formula One racing driver Ayrton Senna, who won the F1 world championship three times before his death at age 34.

Dig (2004) - A documentary on the once-promising American rock bands The Brian Jonestown Massacre and The Dandy Warhols, and the friendship/rivalry between their respective founders, Anton Newcombe and Courtney Taylor.

Waste Land (2010) - A social documentary based around the lives of garbage pickers in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil as a man by the name of Vik Muniz creates art out of recycled material.



Tyson (2008) - A mixture of original interviews and archival footage and photographs sheds light on the life experiences of Mike Tyson.

The Thin Blue Line (1988) - A film that successfully argued that a man was wrongly convicted for murder by a corrupt justice system in Dallas County, Texas.

That should hold you for a few days.

Tuesday, March 06, 2012

Free Agency Shopping List

Free Agency is an expensive place to shop. And contrary to the popular belief around the league about the "crazy spending Jerry Jones", since the ground was broken on his new stadium in Arlington, the Cowboys have spent the bulk of their cash on re-signing their own free agents and the art work at the new palace (as well as tv repairs for the most expensive and over the top television in history).

A quick review of the last 5 seasons of free agency will show that the Cowboys have not stolen headlines since the purchase of "Bigg", Leonard Davis from Arizona, 5 years ago this week:

2007:
Leonard Davis - 3/4/2007 signed a 7-year, $49m contract
Ken Hamlin - 3/24/2007 signed a 1-year, $2.5m contract

2008:
None

2009:
Keith Brooking - 2/28/2009 signed a 3-year, $6m contract
Igor Olshansky - 3/6/2009 signed a 4-year, $18m contract
Gerald Sensabaugh - 3/9/2009 signed a 1-year, $1.75m contract

2010:
None

2011:
Kenyon Coleman - 7/30/2011 signed a 2-year, $3.75m contract
Abram Elam - 8/3/2011 signed a 1-year, $2.5m contract


When the signing of Igor Olshansky is the single biggest piece of free agency business that Jones has completed in 5 years, you know that he is itching to do something splashy in about a week when the window goes up for crazy spending around the league.

The Cowboys are not near the top of the league in available cap room, but they are among the short list of teams that think they are not too far from being able to compete. This logic could very well be faulty, but if you consider that the primes of Tony Romo, DeMarcus Ware, Jay Ratliff, and Jason Witten is not going to last forever, you can understand an urgency to get this thing figured out in a very short period of time. The Cowboys cannot afford the patient approach without turning over the top of their roster. They will not and should not do that, so pushing some chips toward the middle of the table for the short term seems like a reasonable strategy.

As free agency and the draft arrive, it seems obvious to target the gigantic holes on the roster. This team desperately needs help at cornerback, as Terence Newman needs to be replaced, and next year at this time the Cowboys will have to make a decision on the future of Mike Jenkins (if you think the Anthony Spencer dilemma is a difficult one, just wait until we get to the Jenkins debate). They also really need to add interior offensive line and I would always love to upgrade both of the players who surround Jay Ratliff on the defensive line. In a perfect world, I would add a prototypical nose tackle to allow Ratliff freedom to be moved up and down the line on early downs against the run, but I don't think I want to pay someone near the age of 30 to do that, so I would prefer to find that speed bump in the draft where he has his whole career ahead of him (and reasonable paychecks in the short-term, too).

But, free agency is where I need to plug at least one of my major needs: Cornerback and/or Guard/Center. If the Cowboys can find a plan where they can get both, then I will absolutely be impressed (assuming they get quality).

Back in January, I pledged my regard for Carl Nicks of New Orleans. If you want a breakdown of his skills, make sure you give that a read when you get the chance. Beyond Nicks, who will require around $50 million when it is all said and done, there are a few other options (like Ben Grubbs, Baltimore), but Nicks is about it for elite play at guard.

The Cowboys could also look at center, as Green Bay's Scott Wells and Houston's Chris Myers, and both would make a fair amount of sense. But, both are on the wrong side of 30 years old, and therefore I would like to avoid large free agent purchases where you are not considering the long-term future of the core of this team if it can be avoided.

However, where I want to spend a lot of time focusing over the next week is figuring out which way the Cowboys should be steering in free agency when it comes to fixing the cornerback position. Here is the current group with ages based on opening day, 2012:


NameAgeHt/Wt2011 Snaps
T Newman345'10/193829
O Scandrick255'10/192679
M Jenkins275'10/190608
A Ball276'2/197498

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This group did not have a very good year by just about any measurement. It should be argued that their job would be significantly easier if the Cowboys had more of a pass rush than Ware and hope, but, that is the job in Dallas for now so the Cowboys have to either figure out how to find pass rushers or better cover guys (or both). The only corner they are married to is Orlando Scandrick on a 5-year, $27m deal that was signed last fall. That is approaching starter money, but since you need 3 corners in this league who will all play a ton of snaps, the Scandrick deal is not terrible.

Newman is very likely to be cut loose, but the cap savings will not be substantial given his 3 years left of bonus money, although the Cowboys can spread it out into 2013 if they cut him after June 1. Ball is an unrestricted free agent is who is not likely to be kept, either. Jenkins expires next season, and the Cowboys cannot be sure he is a guy to spend large amounts of cash on, given his inconsistent play, aversion to contact, and durability issues.

That is why addressing this spot cannot be over-stated. It must happen. In fact, if the Cowboys signed a free agent AND used a top draft pick on a corner as well, I would not complain. We will cover the draft more in weeks to come, but let's look at the top CB free agents according to most experts' lists:


NameAgeHt/Wt2011 Snaps
B Carr266'0/2071,030
C Finnegan285'10/1881,142
C Rogers316'0/1921,024
L Webb265'10/182993

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Given familiarity of the NFC East, I have seen enough of Carlos Rogers over the years to scratch him off my list, despite a fantastic year in San Francisco. His age also is something I don't want to continue to concern myself with in the secondary, so that cuts this list to 3.

Lardarius Webb of Baltimore is another interesting player, but he is simply a restricted free agent and thus comes with some level of matching rights and compensation, so I would prefer to steer clear of a player like that as well, despite his very impressive resume in 2011.

That leaves Brandon Carr of Kansas City and Cortland Finnegan of the Tennessee Titans as the two most attractive and obvious choices for the Cowboys. In the remaining days this week, I want to break down both players by watching a few hundred snaps of each from 2011 and see if we can arrive at a consensus on which player is more worth the huge chunk of cash that will be required to get either. You can believe they are both eyeing the $50 million barrier, so the Cowboys need to get this choice right. Let's see if we can do the same in our study of Carr and Finnegan for Thursday and Friday here on the blog.

Monday, March 05, 2012

Franchise Tag Day Is Here

Just hours remain now before the 3pm deadline for the franchise tag to be applied to impending free agents around the national football league. This blog has been a place that has written plenty about the Cowboy's options, and the wisest decision was concluded here long ago that the Cowboys should apply the tag to outside linebacker Anthony Spencer.

There is no question that this is being considered about as insane as the last two times the Cowboys arrived at such a decision - with Flozell Adams (2002) and Ken Hamlin (2008). Because in each case, the player was certainly not an elite player at his position, nor the very definition of the words "Franchise Player". However, it is merely a label that explains the original intent of the rule, not the present way it is used around the league as the annual safe-guard for making sure teams don't lose their best free agent without some resistance.

It should also be noted that the Cowboys with Adams and Hamlin used the tag simply to obtain leverage against a player in a negotiation. Let's look at that with Spencer.

Say they have offered Spencer 5 years, $30 million, with $15 guaranteed for a long term extension (it should be noted that I am absolutely picking those numbers out of mid-air and have no insight as to whether this is actually being discussed. Just an educated guess). He is right to wonder if there is a better offer out there among the 31 other teams, given that now that a few other players have been taken off the market. If he squints really hard, he can see how his agent could make the case he is one of the very best free agents at the position to hit the streets on March 13th.

So, when Spencer compares 5/$30m with whatever his agent considers is the going rate (let's say 6/$40m), you can see how that camp would not be happy with the offer and hold tight to their demands that the Cowboys slide more money over to his side. But, he needs those imagined offers from other camps to build his case. Otherwise, once the tag is slapped on him, he realizes (whether he wants to or not) that his leverage has completely disappeared and now he must compare his two offers: 5/$30m or 1/$8.8m, both from the offices of Jerry and Stephen Jones.

And, like Flozell and Hamlin before him, he will likely be annoyed by that change in leverage (no mystery team with a large bid coming) but will come to his senses once he ponders the possibility of an injury or a down season in 2012. Usually, after his agent has tried every trick in the book to get the Jones family to bid against itself in the name of "doing the right thing", the player will take the offer by the mid-July deadline that had been on the table since mid-February. Again, I may have to dollars wrong, but this story is repeated every year around the league with few exceptions.

Hamlin and Adams then signed their deals for multi-years and the franchise tag had accomplished its goal and gone back in the cupboard. The players ultimately got their money, but not as much as they had originally dreamed. And the fans who gasped at the idea of terming Ken Hamlin as a "franchise player" went back to doing something else with their time.

If Spencer doesn't like the insult of 1 year/$8.8 million, then players need to remember to fight harder against that in the next CBA. But, they never agree on that sort of thing that applies to such a small percentage of players. In fact, most players would look at that one-year pay day as much more than they made in their entire careers. This is not something that gathers enough at the grass roots to get it to change. Of course, players can make much more if they have 32 bidders at the auction, but nobody is going to cry for a player like Spencer that has frankly disappointed during his career to this juncture.

His options remain, such as signing the 1-year tender with the condition that the Cowboys can not franchise him again next season. He can bet on himself and hit free agency next year with a lot of cash in his account and hope to hit it big next year. He can also choose to not sign the tender altogether and hope to force a trade with a hold-out, but it doesn't appear that Spencer is willing to do that. Players who have that amount of nerve better also have a playing resume that is unquestioned. Spencer is not in that class.

So, expect the tag today and an announcement of a 5-year deal in a few months. This allows the Cowboys to focus on a number of players who are of greater priority than Spencer.

Allow me to address one further argument against the franchise tag for Spencer. Many emailers will say that "this consumes a majority of the Cowboys' money to spend in this offseason". The idea is that the Cowboys have $17m in cap room, and if they spend $9m on Spencer, then they are pretty much done.

This is just not the case. The Cowboys have a number of deals that are easy to restructure. One phone call to Tony Romo's people can generate enough cap room to consume the entire Spencer deal by converting salary into bonus money with just his deal. DeMarcus Ware and Doug Free can also be used to find cash with great ease. The $17m in cap room is actually a lot closer to $30m plus if the Cowboys wish to use all of their resources to get things accomplished. And then, once Spencer does the inevitable, the ability to convert his $9m back into cap room would not be difficult (although not a cinch until he agrees) by training camp. It is simply the way to massage your money to make it work through the offseason.

The real way to blow through your money is to pay someone else for their OLB. That is not available for 1-year and would require a massive amount of cash outlay to make happen. It just isn't practical with so many other spots on your field that are real sore thumbs.

So, again, the money doesn't kill you. The player is in the upper half of your defensive starters (5th best at the very worst) and he is the right age. It doesn't prevent you from addressing the other spots that need addressing on the OL, DL, and secondary. I am not saying it is the move to build your season around, but, to me, it is a simple brick in the wall and many moves need to follow it.

Remember, it is a team game. You cannot change out 16 starters every year. You upgrade your weak links until the ensemble forms a workable unit. That is the goal for the Cowboys this spring. And Spencer can be part of that plan.

Friday, March 02, 2012

Chat Vela 3/9/12

Thursday, March 01, 2012

Homer Call of the Year Winners

2000: Colorado Buffaloes vs Texas
2001: Georgia Bulldogs - Larry Munson
2002: Converse Judson
2003: Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals - Paul Allen
2004: Kilgore HS Football
2005: SMU Mustangs - Rich Phillips, Craig Swan
2006: Gol De Scholes
2007: Akron Zips Football
2008: Ennis - Kilgore Refs
2009: Godley HS vs Pilot Point
2010: Flordia Atlantic vs Arkansas State
2011: Little League World Series - Louisiana Lafayette