Decoding Linehan - Week 12 - Minnesota

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Staff Photographer

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) is forced out of the pocket by the Minnesota Vikings during the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota, Thursday, December 1, 2016. (Tom Fox/The Dallas Morning News)

By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

Decoding Linehan

In the week leading up to Minnesota, we spent quite a bit of time discussing how the Cowboys had one of their worst days possible on defense against Washington and still won.

 

They allowed the Redskins to run up 500 yards of offense, never sacked Kirk Cousins, nor did they force a single turnover. And they still won.

We discussed how that was a fortuitous conclusion to a really tough day, and that they should like to avoid similar experiences in the near future.

Well, this occasion, seven days later, was nearly an opposite experience.

The offense -- a group that has had almost no days all season when anything appeared difficult to them -- sputtered all night long and looked vulnerable in many ways against a fired-up Vikings defense that forced Dallas into discomfort routinely.

Behold, the results:

-- Dallas scored a season-low 17 points on offense (including a special teams-aided touchdown).

-- Dallas totaled a season-low 264 total yards.

-- Dallas turned the ball over twice (tying a season high for turnovers).

-- Dallas converted a season-low one third down. Eleven percent.

-- Dallas won.

It really is quite a year when your stinkers go for victories, but given the fragile nature of wonderful seasons, we should begin to examine some of the issues that appear to be present as this team heads down the stretch. It isn't that we should freak out or anything. But this is a football organization that had a 13-3 season in 2007 and 12-4 season in 2014, when they went to the playoffs and were dismissed before the NFC Championship Game on both occasions.

That can happen. You can have amazing seasons that are dismantled in just under three hours.

With that in mind, what Minnesota did to provide a blueprint to certain potential playoff opponents must, at least, give one pause.

The Cowboys have been a dominant rushing team all season. Things have gone very well for them on the ground, which we believe is the foundation of what they like to accomplish. However, it should be noted that a disturbing trend has formed regarding their success rates since the injury to Geoff Swaim, the blocking tight end from Texas.

Swaim tore his pectoral muscle against Pittsburgh. Before that day, the Cowboys were getting a majority of their running game from multiple-tight end sets. Since then, Dallas has been trying to figure out a way around this obstacle because it makes its offense so much more powerful.

Why? Why do you think running with multiple tight ends is a big deal?

Because, when you are in a multiple-tight end set -- 12, 13, 21 (if a tight end is lined up as a fullback) or 22 personnel, you will see the defense attempt to defend you in their base personnel. They will not have a fifth defensive back on the field because they realize how difficult it is to stop the run being outsized so badly. Now that Swaim is out, there is a lot of the offense that is now trying to be replicated by Gavin Escobar, who, unfortunately, blocks like a wide receiver sometimes. If you make him block a linebacker or a defensive end, we see his issues bubble to the surface.

So the Cowboys are left with the unenviable choice of either trying to get Escobar to reach Swaim's level of blocking, or rip out a big part of the playbook that got the Cowboys to where they were when leaving Pittsburgh.

What you will find below gives you an idea of what we are talking about. This is just raw yardage numbers, but I didn't want to complicate things too much. You can see, though, when the Cowboys declared power runs by running two tight ends onto the field, the defenses did not have much success between Week 3, when the offense figured out how to get Ezekiel Elliott going, and Week 9, when Swaim got hurt -- with the lone exception of the Eagles' impressive showing.

Since then, the power runs have really slowed to almost nothing.

This doesn't mean they can't run at all. It just means a lot of it now will come from 11 personnel, when teams are not outsized on defense and a team like Minnesota (or Seattle) is not going to be manhandled in the same way.

It isn't a devastating issue, but it certainly is one to think about moving forward.

WEEKLY DATA - MINNESOTA

The numbers above are just not very good at all. Only 13 first downs. Look at the average yards-to-go on third down! Over 10! Too many penalties and no success on the early downs. Basically, this is the type of day we expected to encounter on a regular basis with a rookie quarterback.

This is what an overwhelmed offense vs. an elite defense looks like. Luckily, the Cowboys have not run into this much this season.

DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART

Wow, that is a very careful throw chart. Dak Prescott refuses to risk bad things in a game like that, which I am sure came at the hands of the coaches offering a game plan. They knew odds were very good that if the Cowboys could hold the ball, they would eventually win in a very hostile situation.

Then, the ball started to come loose. Lucky Whitehead fumbled. Elliott fumbled (and the play was overturned). Penalties and sacks, and then a quarterback strip fumble. It was all very chaotic, which made the offense be even more careful.

I think you need to make sure to include Jason Witten in the middle to occupy the safeties more. They had one connection brought back for an Elliott holding penalty.

PERSONNEL GROUPINGS

Above, note the production from each personnel grouping. This is something to keep an eye on. We don't fully know how much of that is the loss of a player, or how much of it has to do with the situation and opponent. But from here, it looks like the Cowboys' success is coming out of shotgun, when many of the runs are from 11 personnel. Spread them out and use the space. Trouble is, I don't know if that is the recipe to win in the playoffs, when smash-mouth football was the Cowboys' best move.

Let's look at the video:

That is an early run from 12 personnel that did not count. But both tight ends did a nice job and Zeke gets outside and hits the turbo. The issue here was a call on Free for holding the linebacker, Eric Kendricks (No. 54). I think that's a horrible call, and the linebacker sold it by acting like he was held. A truly ridiculous call, in my opinion. I know Free has struggled, but this is not a hold and it alters the game significantly.

This is third and 13. Prescott was phenomenal with his feet in this game. Imagine what a dual threat you have when a quarterback can do this against that defense on third and long. Very impressive work here.

Deep ball to Dez Bryant. The one really big offensive play in the game. We talk all season about how Dez has the same move over and over, so how do they let him get that DIG every time? It is a 15-yard route that takes a sharp turn to the inside of the field. The deep in. The Dez Bryant signature route. Well, here is Harrison Smith getting ready to jump that and Dez has a double move. Smith is awesome, but the Cowboys set him up with a season's worth of film and Dak delivers a nice ball that required a great catch. A little less on the ball and that might have been a touchdown. But this is pretty great as it is.

Look at the protection on the same play. This also is out of empty, which I would like to see the Cowboys do more if they are unable to power-run. Spread them out, but they have to figure out how to use Zeke as a receiver more if they do this. That is the downside.

Really rough night for Free. It appears this is becoming more and more of an issue. They just don't have very good pass protection from the right tackle anymore. I really appreciate his career, but we have seen a decline in 2016. Brian Robison (No. 96) gets him here and the ball comes loose.

Now, the very athletic Danielle Hunter (No. 99) gets Free from the same spot. Dak is going to need to start feeling that situation and escape in that direction if this continues. I am not sure how much a chip from Elliott would help this. Free just can't handle this type of edge guy, which complicates things, too. Seattle has plenty over right tackles to replicate this.

Here, the Cowboys break one late as Zeke bounces it to the outside on that same roll-out action we have seen so much out of 12 personnel. I think the game Kendricks had was very impressive, and here he saves a touchdown. This became a field goal, so his effort to get off the block and beat Elliott to that angle is remarkable.

And then there's this play, when it looked like Dak ended the game with a scramble. It is a screen play right to Zeke, but the Vikings sniff it out and take Elliott away. Dak doesn't panic and keeps heading for the marker, which he gets to comfortably, but a review backed the ball up a few yards and the Cowboys blow third and 1, leading to a punt (which turns into the Vikings' touchdown). I am sure next time Dak will dive head first and end the game right there, but we shouldn't lose sight of all of the good he did here, and all night, with his decision-making. He got it right quite a bit.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

There was a lot that was unsteady about that performance. You would have liked to see a lot more, but do not take the easy way out and just talk about the quarterback. There were too many penalties. Too many blown assignments. And just an overall poor performance from the big guys up front. Now, that is a product of playing a great defense at its place -- something the Cowboys likely will earn the right to avoid with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

But it did reveal some vulnerabilities and some issues at right tackle and No. 2 tight end. The Cowboys will have to closely monitor those situations and, perhaps, attempt to understand what everyone they have available is capable of these days.

A quality win, for sure. But, easily the 11th or 12th-best offensive performance of the season. Look for a bounce-back on Sunday at a very tough place against a defense that is designed to slow Dallas down.

The Morning After - Week 12 - Vikings

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Jae S. Lee/Staff Photographer

Dallas Cowboys outside linebacker Kyle Wilber (51) raises the ball after he recovers a fumble by Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) on the punt return during the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Thursday, Dec. 1, 2016. Dallas Cowboys won 17-15. (Jae S. Lee/The Dallas Morning News)

By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

The Morning After

Thursday night was, without question, the most frustrating Cowboys game in months. It was a night when their offense was able to do very little. This unstoppable group -- one that seemed to have the answers to nearly every question asked of it -- managed to put together just one drive of more than 33 yards all night. That also was the only drive that exceeded two first downs and the only one where they looked like the team they have been all year.

 

It was certainly the night when they looked most vulnerable and lacked the self-belief that nobody could hold them down. Obviously, these two things are related to each other as the confidence is fed by knowing there is no question who the best team on the field is. We expected this level of doubt to arise in other hostile locations, like Green Bay or Pittsburgh, but it wasn't until their first trip to this new stadium in Minneapolis that the Cowboys wondered if they were what people say they are.

It was yet another night when the defense appeared unable to turn the game with a big takeaway and ending the drama on their own. When the defense needed to make a stand, the punchless Minnesota offense generated the game's three longest drives in the second half -- including the length-of-the-field drive with the game on the line for their only touchdown. That's right, with a historically bad offense, the Vikings had three drives longer than any Dallas drive in the second half and moved the chains for first downs 13 times. The Cowboys had just six in the entire second half.

And yet, with everything in the paragraphs above being completely true, the Cowboys left with a win.

This probably is a pretty good indicator of a couple of key things:

The first would be the idea that this team was due for an offensive market correction. They have been unreal. They have been flirting with some of the most ridiculous NFL marks with both a rookie quarterback and rookie running back and, while I would not suggest that was some 10-week fluke, when you consider the NFL has had some very special offenses over the years and almost none of them have put a year together like this, it is fair to say they were due for a stinker.

The second thing would be that Minnesota played a very strong team game and likely leaves with a different outcome if it wasn't for an ill-timed special teams gaffe that put the Cowboys right back in an advantageous situation and turned the game on its ear. Beyond that, the Vikings likely did everything they hoped to do last night. Put a few drives together, keep the game low-scoring and ask their defense to go toe to toe with this unstoppable force from Dallas and live to tell about it. There simply is no reason to think the Vikings' defense could not repeat that performance based on last night. They easily are the finest resistance the Cowboys have faced all season from a defensive perspective.

The third thing: I think it is very much a good thing to somehow win a game and get slugged in the face in a way that will keep everyone on this young team from getting too confident about what they have done, and what it all means relative to what remains in front of them. Yes, they will clinch a playoff spot and a preferred playoff path very soon for a January run that could be historic. But you really want a mentality that understands how this sport works and also recognizes there have been some historically special offenses that never won the trophy that cements their spot in the ranks of football immortality. In other words, I disagreed with Tony Romo when he claimed this is a "magical season." Nothing in the NFL happens that could be labeled magical until after New Year's Day. Everything else on the way is just getting access to those games and preparing for what lies ahead.

This may have been that game to see there are some teams that are not scared of you. At all. Some teams will bring that eighth man in the box and have their corners sitting right on the hips of your outside receivers. Then what? And if this game plan is duplicated by a team like Seattle, which shares many similar qualities to the Minnesota defense but features an MVP-caliber quarterback who can move an offense, how will the Cowboys deal with that?

Because the key to stopping the Cowboys will be to force this offense to do something it doesn't prefer to do. It prefers to run you into the ground like a fine powder and then ask if you can make precise throws into tight spots and move the chains to score the points. Sell out to stop the run may cost you a few big plays over the top, but if you don't make the Cowboys uncomfortable and face some third-and-long situations, then you don't have a chance. The reason this hasn't been done very often is that there aren't many teams that can actually do it.

You could see Ezekiel Elliott trying to stick with his instincts, but he was used to far more inviting options when the ball gets to him. His vision was not offering him desirable paths and he appeared to be tentative for the first time in weeks.

The Giants did it in Week 1 and will certainly attempt to do it again Dec. 11. The Ravens, Steelers and Packers tried to do it but realized they might not have the quality to force the Cowboys into discomfort. But those Vikings did this very well.

This forced Dak Prescott to go to a place where he seldom has to go. He is wired to either see great places to go with the ball or not to throw it. Usually, he has options, but last night you could see his reluctance to pull the trigger because the Vikings did not offer guys who were running free down the field. They are that good. They have first-round picks everywhere. So if you have a quarterback who is predisposed to avoid anything remotely close to an interception (as he should) and just throw to the places where he has nice matchups, then those must present themselves. He also seemed tentative.

So did the coaches. The Vikings had everyone on their heels. The Cowboys were not attacking, but rather tiptoeing on offense to a point where they were justifying punts as a favorable outcome to game-ruining mistakes. They were right on that, by the way, but that led to a number of very impotent efforts from this offense that certainly did not have much of a plan once it got punched in the face.

Of course, this led to another issue: The offense had no ability to protect the defense. The defense was required to do its own dirty work, which it seemed to do when Anthony Hitchens stepped in front of a pass for a beautiful interception. But as was the case on a number of occasions Thursday, the breakthrough moment for this team was then erased by a penalty. As frustrating nights in the NFL go, this one ranked pretty high with good plays destroyed by flags that often did not seem completely righteous.

That doesn't matter. The flags set the team back repeatedly. And this again offers teaching moments.

The coaches looked like they played right into the Vikings' hands. The defense looked like the Cowboys' defense -- a try-hard group that struggles when they are exposed too much. If it wasn't for the Cowboys' first successful challenge in 2016, they likely lose that game. This may become known as "the Kyle Wilber game," given his biggest play as a Cowboy -- giving the offense the ball at the Minnesota 8-yard line. Because the offense didn't look likely to get down there on its own in the second half.

These are the stakes in the NFL. This is why they call it a marathon. You play your tails off for months and months, only to be reminded that your destination is still off in the distance. But if you wish to win the championship, it is nights like this, when your opponent pushes you to the brink, when you see that you actually have accomplished nothing so far. Yes, 11-1 is fantastic, but what would it mean with a first-round exit?

This is part of that preparation. If the team is smart, it understands that no wins are apologized for in the NFL. Especially when you win on the road against a desperate team scrambling for its own playoff life and trying everything it can think of to beat a team it knows it looks up to in the rankings.

But after they rest and recover after this exhausting stretch of playing in -- and winning -- three games in 12 days, the Cowboys must look at this effort for what it was. And that was an opponent that was slowing down your freight train and showing the elite defenses of the league how to play you: To make your rookies uncomfortable and force them to make decisions where neither choice is appealing, and to create hesitation and tentativeness in the minds of these inexperienced players as the pressure builds.

In other words, I think this win is perfect to prepare this squad for January. Heck, it may prepare them for road games at New York and Philadelphia, where both teams have defenses that already have made you uncomfortable in your own stadium this season.

The Cowboys did not look like the "belle of the ball" Thursday night. They looked beatable and vulnerable. And yet, they won.

That is great news, but also disconcerting in that they must pay proper attention to detail and realize (as I am sure they do) they have not accomplished anything yet. And when that time comes when they are able to do truly "magical" things, they will get just three hours to sort through the challenges and figure out the solutions. There is no best-of-seven series, where the best team always wins. In the NFL, it often can come down to one penalty or one two-point conversion, where the difference in the playoffs is survival or the end of the year. And that end may be looked at for decades as the year when they "had their shot and let it get away."

These are the stakes. That is the pressure.

If winning a championship was easy, more teams would do it. It is very difficult. And very, very rare.

On Thursday, the young Cowboys had a little adversity thrown at them by a team that will not sniff the Super Bowl.

And I contend that it is good for them.

Winning easy and having everyone tell you how great you are will not prepare you for what lies ahead.

The trouble will be if they ignore this wake-up call because they still won. I assume they are smart enough to see Thursday night for what it was.

We will know more at MetLife Stadium in nine days.

Marinelli Report - Week 11 - Washington

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AP

Dallas Cowboys cornerback Brandon Carr (39) defends as Washington Redskins tight end Jordan Reed (86) catches a touchdown pass in the end zone in the second half of an NFL football game, Thursday, Nov. 24, 2016, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Ron Jenkins)

By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

Last time we got together - after the Baltimore game a week ago - we were discussing the distinct slide of the Cowboys defense since the Cleveland game.  It was small, but it was still enough to begin to normalize the team defensive numbers in a way that made us realize what we knew back in July: This defense is largely a product of the offense.  

 

It would be nice to make the case that the Cowboys are dangerously underrated and that sooner or later people would regret marginalizing the 11 guys on this defense, but the evidence of this season is starting to make us believe that this is the reality - they are 11 guys trying hard and tactically attempting to avoid catastrophe.  But, good offenses are not having much trouble in the attack.

The one exception to this as we look back at the season now and simply ask about the degree of difficulty with each opponent appears the big day at Lambeau Field against Green Bay.  The Packers and their one-dimensional offense had a day attacking many of their November foes, but the Cowboys did a fine job of dropping eight into coverage and frustrating Aaron Rodgers.  The Bengals have just looked awful on offense all season, which is something we did not anticipate.  Otherwise, Eli Manning had success, Ben Roethlisberger had a huge day, and Kirk Cousins did twice (and missed open options in Week 2).  

This may be the new normal as we look at what lies ahead.  We would like to say this is due for a change, but the further we get into this season, it seems the Cowboys realize their offense is strong enough that they need to be even more cautious on defense.  They are now playing with 2 safeties high a lot more than we are used to seeing.  Three-man rushes and eight-man secondaries seem to be the trend (although I have not charted the season from this perspective yet).  It appears the idea is to hope for some stops - hold them to a field goal or even a punt - and know that your offense will take care of the rest.

I would not call this a great long-term plan, but under the "if it isn't broke, don't fix it" mantra, they keep turning out win after win under this.  Because, yes, the offense is that good.

Is this part of the plan "sustainable and repeatable?"  Well, let's just say that it will be more enjoyable to play Minnesota's offense than Washington's (we assume).

Washington did something that has only been done one other time in NFL history: 500 yards of offense with zero turnovers and zero sacks and LOST!  All time, teams are 32-2 when they do that and only the Troy Aikman-led Cowboys who lost on Thanksgiving Day to the 1998 Vikings can relate.  It is something about Thanksgiving in Dallas, I guess.  In other words, you don't give up 500 yards and get nothing positive and live to tell about it.  

Then, there was more evidence that indicated we should perhaps start worrying about the defense.

Look at this from Ed Werder from yesterday.  Staggering!

Gracious.  That also seems incredibly historic.  No takeaways again.  In fact, look at the trend on this handy little chart below if we add sacks + takeaways by week:

saw

We are not suggesting that takeaways are a product of Church and Claiborne going down with injuries, but it would be impossible to forget that little detail in looking at the defense right now.  They simply are riding coat-tails at this point.  And, as we look at how to get a pass rush going, it would seem to require doing exactly the opposite of what the Marinelli-led coaching staff wishes to do.  It would require extra rushers, and he is dead-set on rushing fewer.  The Cowboys do not want to blitz, they want to rush three and make you do what Cousins had to do all day.  Take the underneath throws.  This tells us that yardage is largely empty unless you can eventually break through into the end zone.

WEEKLY DATA - WASHINGTON

As you can see, the success falls almost entirely in the idea of holding the Redskins to 40 percent in the red zone.  You win by 6 and you look at that stat saving you 12 points and it reminds you of the Green Bay game where the Packers were constantly settling for 3 on their red zone drives, too (1-4, 25%).  This is a neat trick, but we should not fool ourselves into thinking the Cowboys are better than normal at this skill.  In fact, the Steelers and Ravens just went 6 for 7 (86%) against Dallas at getting touchdowns in the red zone. 

The Cowboys have given up 22 touchdowns on 39 red zone drives this season for 56.4%.  Would you like to know the NFL average in this category?  Sure, you would.  It is 56.5%.  They are ranked 20th in this category.  

The Cowboys are not great at this skill.  They are virtually league-average.  They got away with it this week, but next week, it might actually even out.  And in both cases, you hope the offense is covering it up.  

Again, that recipe has worked wonders this season.  The question that everyone has is can it get them to the finish line.

KIRK COUSINS THROW CHART

As you can see, drop eight into zones and make Cousins beat you underneath while burning his clock and his downs.  The Cowboys played defense on Thursday like they had a distinct advantage with the scoreboard and the clock because they did.  The recipe includes playing defense with the lead, and they have done a fine job of following it.

SPLASH PLAYS - WEEK 11

SEASON SPLASH TOTALS

And I was asked for this from a reader, here is the week-by-week splash production for each player. DNP (Did Not Play).  

Before we finish here, let's look at some of the issues regarding the game and the biggest one for me is trying to match up with the devastating TE, Jordan Reed.  This guy is going to be a problem for a while. After Gronk in New England, this guy might be the best TE in the business.  He is such a mismatch.  

First, here is what happened in Week 2 when the Cowboys considered trying to run a LB with him.  Even one with decent speed like 59-Hitchens:

Well, that didn't go very well.  So, they knew that they would need to put Byron Jones on him.  Jones can handle most tight ends.  But, even for him, there were plenty of moments where it was more of the "what are we supposed to do against this beast?" defense.  

This play was on one of those 1st half drives where the Cowboys forced a field goal.  More importantly, it appeared Reed was going to be lost for the game for this nasty tumble he took with a little help from Jeff Heath.  Here, the Cowboys rush 3, still get some pressure, and then force a high throw from Cousins on the run.  Big stop, but Reed toughed it out.  

Here was the very impressive "Go" against Jones down the sideline.  Cowboys in Cover 1-Robber with a safety dropping down to jump a pattern, but QBs know the proper read is to go to the sideline here.  Cousins drops a dime and Reed does the rest.  They even drew a penalty here and it was definitely a "what do you do" moment for Jones.  A guy that big still has that speed and catch radius.  Wow.  

Next play, he uses the Cole Beasley-favorite pivot route.  If you sit outside he goes inside.  If you sit inside, he pivots outside.  A well thrown ball makes this impossible against a guy with hips.  And yes, this TE has hips that can lose a 1st round corner in tight spaces.  

And then this throw to the post which looks like the Cowboys were in a Cover 3 and trying to funnel things inside to their safety.  Again, once he gets inside leverage, the play is already over.  The Cowboys were trying to run out the clock here, but I am not sure how many ideas Rod Marinelli has left for this guy at the moment.  He kills a lot of teams with this skill set, but it seems like the Cowboys, in particular, don't have many answers for big Reed.  I am sure they hope to wait until next year to find out.  

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

The formula is working.  Ride the offense and hope they can continue to be the best defense the Cowboys have.  Other than that, they need DeMarcus Lawrence to get home more and for Church and Claiborne to return, and to figure out ways to force takeaways.  Playing with the lead should offer more chances to take the ball away.

Maybe tonight is the first night since October where they take the ball away from their opponent.

Maybe.