Always the horses, seldom the jockey...
Daily Commentary on the Dallas Sports Scene - By Bob Sturm - Sportsradio 1310, The Ticket - The Athletic Dallas - The Athletic - Bob Sturm
This is our seventh of 12 weeks of the draft digests. We started with three weeks of prospects on the defensive front. Then we went for three weeks of offensive line and tight ends. For the next three weeks, we will work on defensive backs and linebackers and then finish our project with what we assume will be the main thrust of the Cowboys’ first two days — offensive playmakers to help replace guys like Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson. Of course, we also have to do this year’s QB class, because it is the premium position of all premium positions and we do it not because the Cowboys are in the market for a QB, but rather we have to do it because quarterbacks are important no matter where they end up playing.
As this series begins its second half and as we march closer to draft day, it is time to tighten the circle.
The first 30 players of the “Sturm 60” have the best players at the positions of need. We will continue to wander down that path for a few more weeks, but then we have to become fine-tuned with the names of players of great interest on Days 1 and 2 of this draft for the Cowboys.
Texas Longhorns wide receiver Marcus Johnson (7) is tackled by UCLA Bruins defensive back Fabian Moreau (10) and linebacker Eric Kendricks (6) in the third quarter at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, Saturday, September 13, 2014. (Tom Fox/The Dallas Morning News) 04282015xSPORTS
Today marks just 27 days left until the first pick of the NFL draft. To this point, we have now covered 8 weeks of players at a pace of a player per weekday. That brings our total to 40 players through the 8 weeks with hopes of getting to 55 or 60 players. This certainly shows the realities of our time constraints and the further reality that NFL teams have about 500-1,000 players graded and scouted at a much greater depth.
This reiterates the overall point to this exercise. I am not a scout or a general manager, and I hope it is clear that I am not even trying to be a "scout-wannabe". I wish to do my best to be an informed media guy, but I am under no misplaced idea that I can do what they do. The fact is that what those guys do requires countless hours of effort from a whole staff of scouts and personnel experts. They have years of information on each guy that begins long before their draft year. Ask any scout about his files and he will tell you that he has already done plenty of work on the 2018 and even the 2019 drafts. He has massive files on all corners of the football world so that no organization feels out-flanked by their competition.
They meet with coaches, dig into the background of a player going back to high school, learn about every aspect of their medical files, and, of course, try to study the tape and hold their own workouts. The files are enormous and the information is incredible in volume. They do so much more than anyone in the media could ever dream of doing that it is important to understand the differences between those who really do this for a living and those who do player profiles (like me), mock drafts, and anything revolving around the NFL Draft.
It is a vital part of the NFL game and the media does more work than ever before, but that should not get anyone to mistake us for "experts" on the topic. I have been doing this for years and feel like I gain a lot from it, but that doesn't in any way delude me into thinking that there is a level of expertise that is a fraction of the guys who really do this for a living.
So, as I am asked all of the time, why try to "break down" prospects? Well, without question, even though I am not a scout, I do love football. In the spring, I love to learn about the new players coming into the league and I love to compare them with their fellow draftees and players form previous years that I have also studied.
The process I have adopted is the 200-play treatment. You watch a player for 200 plays and you should get a pretty good idea of what he does well and not so well. What he does and what he doesn't do. I try to use All-22 coaches tape, which is far preferable to TV games, which are miles better than nothing or highlight tapes. We need to see all the plays. The bad ones, the good ones, the indifferent ones. Now, that doesn't mean I know about his medicals, his personality, his intangibles, his backstory, his family, or anything like that. I know how he looks in 3-4 games of his last year in school.
So, 200 plays is about 3 games of a full-time player. If you study 3 games of a college player and take careful notes as well as read as much as you can about the player, you can then start to form an opinion of how he compares to the others in the group. You must consider quality of opponents, quality of team-mates, scheme, injuries, and all sorts of nuances, but I believe, if you dedicate a day to a player, you can get a decent read on how he compares to others.
I know some people in my line of work give grades, but I have a hard time offering relative grades based on hard ideas about what constitutes a 3rd round grade versus a 4th. Frankly, every year, due to the candidates available, the quality of the 4th round varies. Also, if you only give 19 1st round grades, but there are 32 1st round picks, then what? In my opinion, if there are 32 picks in the 1st round, then the best 32 players get 1st round grades. It is like suggesting that some marathons are only 19 miles long and others are 37 miles. No, they aren't. All marathons are 26.2 miles. We can't decide that it is shorter this year and longer next year.
Again, these are all just things I have picked up over the years. I believe Football Media guys should watch football and make up their minds on players rather than take someone else's word for it in a magazine or a website. And while we are all under qualified to do so, shouldn't we try to become more qualified every year? Shouldn't we do what teams do on a much lesser scale? Learn, study, make decisions, see our mistakes, alter our process, and try to not make the same mistakes year after year? I think so. And, for that matter, what else are we supposed to do from February until August, anyway? I am a football fan. I like to watch and learn about football. And that explains what I have been doing for years on the NFL Draft.
And with that in mind, here is another batch of players to be familiar with for this year:
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DESMOND KING - IOWA
CB - SENIOR- #14
5'11 - 203 - 4.58 pro day
Last 2 years stats - 27 games, 11 Interceptions, 130 tackles 4.5 TFL, 20 PBU, FF
King won the Jim Thorpe and Jack Tatum Awards in 2015 when he was a Consensus All American.
POSITIVES: King is a corner who has excelled at the college level for a long time. He has been Iowa's lead player in the secondary for over 50 games and also adds the component of kick and punt returns at a solid level over the last two seasons as well. He competes very hard and looks comfortable and confident in the predominantly zone defenses that Iowa runs, allowing him to be a ballhawk and read the QB eyes to find the ball. He plays with a physical edge and many in the NFL see him as more of a safety than a corner, but he seems like the type who is more than capable at both spots if you need a wildcard in the secondary over the course of a season. He is a clear team leader and a guy defenses seemed to try to avoid quite a bit this season.
CONCERNS: He did not run particularly well at the Combine and when you add that too his smaller stature, he likely is not in the top class of corner prospects, which likely puts him in Day 2 as a converted safety. He does seem susceptible to "eating the cheese" and falling for pump fakes or double moves when he is in full ball hawking mode, allowing for the occasional big play over the top. I was unable to see him in too much man to man coverage, aside from chasing a Tight End down the field. Teams are concerned about his long speed on the edge, which is curious, given his punt and kick return duties.
I think the total package that King brings to the table offers a guy with positional flex and good mentality to be a contributor in someone's secondary for a long time. He is a football player with the perfect mentality and I would not allow measurables to talk me out of that kind of prospect at the right price.
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CHIDOBE AWUZIE - COLORADO
CB - SENIOR - #4
6'0 - 202 - 4.43 40
Last 2 years - 27 games, 3 interceptions, 150 tackles, 18 TFL, 8 sack, 19 PBU, 4 FF
Awuzie has been a bit of a fast riser as he developed from a 3-star recruit to 1st Team All Pac 12
POSITIVES: Awuzie is the type of corner that always attracts the attention of the public with his style of play. He is a "line of scrimmage" corner - slot guy at times - who is brought on blitzes and dive bombs run plays or WR screens to make plays behind the line of scrimmage on a regular basis as his 26 plays behind the line in the last 2 seasons would indicate. He has very nice size and speed with a 40 of 4.43 that plays with aggressiveness that is revved all the way up. It is clear Colorado wanted their flanks to force action into very tight spaces rather than "off and soft" a lot of times. There are some games where they seem to blitz him over and over again. In fact, his deployment and his production both put him in a similar class with Jabrill Peppers as a safety who seems to be playing more of a hybrid near the line, but also has some more slot ability than Peppers has shown.
CONCERNS: For a player with these types of skills, you would think he would be a candidate to be a corner on the outside, but that seems like a bit of a projection at this juncture based on the tape I have seen. I don't know if he can follow a top WR around the field because he wasn't asked to do that. I also want to know about his ability against double moves and play-action because he is so aggressive it seems he is jumping everything which will make him a target on Sundays if he doesn't clean that up. Also, if converted to safety at the next level, is he merely in the box? At barely 200 pounds, I think that can work, but you would love to see someone with a bit more size for durability issues.
Otherwise, there are so many things to like. I think Awuzie is the type of player I tend to over-value, because I love a player at his size who plays with reckless abandon and aggressiveness. He will also be a force on coverage teams, too. This is a very nice football player.
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GAREON CONLEY - OHIO STATE
CB - Junior - #8
6'0 - 195 - 4.44 40
Last 2 years stats - 26 games, 6 Interceptions, 75 tackles, 13 PBU
Conley is yet another member of this Ohio State secondary that is expected to go quickly this year.
POSITIVES: He is a candidate to be a #1 corner with his total package that includes good size, great speed, tremendous athleticism with elite hips, and the mentality that he believes he is on an island out there locked up against your #1 WR. He is not worried about too much beyond his guy and can mirror that player pretty well. He also can look convincing when used on a corner blitz. He competes well on passes to his side and gets his hands around a player without making contact that draws penalties. He has tremendous tools that seem to put him right in the mix on Day 1.
CONCERNS: I will confess I have been burned by over-valuing a player's reluctance to participate in team-defending activities like run support and showing any desire whatsoever to take part in the physical side of defense, so Marcus Peters proved to me that this isn't always a deal breaker. That said, Conley has very little interest in hitting anything. In fact, he had a free run at DeShaun Watson from Clemson and was unable to knock him over from the blindside. It wasn't a great demonstration of physicality and to play Ohio State's long season and only have 26 tackles credited in 13 games says you better be Deion Sanders to get away with that at the next level. There were times against Clemson's Mike Williams where he did not look up to the task and overall, he will lose guys chasing crossers. He isn't my favorite prospect.
Conley will go early for sure and things might work out, but I really don't generally like his type and am suspicious of how well he will translate.
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KEVIN KING - WASHINGTON
CB - Senior - #20
6'3 - 206 - 4.43 40
Last 2 years stats - 25 games, 5 Interceptions, 83 tackles, 8 TFL, 18 PBU
King is a very tall cornerback who moved from safety to find a real home at corner.
POSITIVES: I think he is a corner who for some reason is slipping under the radar this season, but I would value him quite highly as he seems to do just about everything well. His physical traits are unreal as a 6'3 guy who runs a 4.43 with a 39" vertical. Add to that he is a safety that moved to cornerback a few years ago, so he loves contact of a safety but has the characteristics of a cornerback. Very appealing combination. Add in to that he has demonstrated some very impressive ball skills to pull down an interception that comes near him. He dive bombs on run plays on the edge and is battling through blocks to get to the ball. He will also engage hard with WRs at the snap as he is looking to rumble when possible.
CONCERNS: There isn't much that I don't like in the games I tracked, but for the occasional time he was beaten over the top (it appeared he thought he had some safety help). At times, you might prefer he dials back his aggressiveness a bit because he will fly in there and miss. But, overall, he is a player I am wondering why others don't have him as high as I do.
I think King is on my short list of corners I would really like to slide to Dallas if possible. He seems the type of corner they really lack.
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FABIAN MOREAU - UCLA
CB - Senior - #10
6'0 - 206 - Has Not Run 40
Last 2 years - 15 games, 2 interceptions, 39 tackles, 10 PBU, 1 TFL, FF
Moreau has battled injuries to emerge as a real interesting and physical prospect at corner.
POSITIVES: Moreau has a lot to like and on his best plays looks like the belle of the ball. Moreau is a big and confident corner with nice traits and a guy who wants to contest on inside routes while having the catch up speed to help when someone gets behind the defense. His motor runs hot and he is a confident player who wants to defend your best guy. He also baits the QB to try to fit a throw in there and jumps it with very good smarts and cleverness. He is a convincing player who makes you recognize his smooth ability and his willingness to step in there when the situation calls for him to put his body in harm's way.
CONCERNS: Unfortunately, his body seems to not appreciate his style where he has missed considerable time due to injuries and is presently recovering again from an injury suffered at his pro day. It is not thought of as a deal breaker, but after missing most of 2015, he is developing a bit of a reputation. He is also 23 years old which isn't a deal breaker, either, but he is the oldest in this group by a bit. He also seems to lose the ball on fades and verticals. This is something that is often difficult to pick up at the next level. Finding the ball is often considered instinctual and given rather than developed. He is physical enough that he will pick up some penalties down the field for overdoing it for sure.
I like him quite a bit, but I will have him down a bit with the corner class as deep as it is. He will be a nice player when healthy, but like so many on the list, it will come down to the price he costs.
LOS ANGELES, CA - NOVEMBER 26: Devin Studstill #14 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish chases down Adoree' Jackson #2 of the USC Trojans as he heads to the end zone for a touch down in the third quarter of the game at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on November 26, 2016 in Los Angeles, California. USC won 45-27. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
NFL draft digest -- Week 5
I am just one man over here trying to get through as many college football prospects as possible. I usually am able to average about one prospect per day, for each weekday, between the Super Bowl and the draft, which puts me roughly at 55-60 players by the time draft comes.
That number of prospects generally seems like it is enough (at least my bosses think so), as the majority of draft spectators lose some interest by the time the third round comes around -- save for a few famous names from the area colleges who are not quite at the top tier of the gold. But then I must answer the question of who gets profiled and who doesn't.
Most years I grab who I perceive to be top players, but recently, I am also tailoring this to what I conclude the Cowboys' main needs are in that given year.
So, this season, as I go through the 2017 draft and march to 10-12 weeks of profiles, I continue to err on the side of defensive players. This may be incorrect thinking, but most years, you don't have to be a genius to "read the tea leaves." The Cowboys have some obvious needs and some obvious strengths.
That means that in 2017, I am spending all sorts of time on defense, with a focus on edge rushers, defensive line, linebackers, and defensive backs at the corner and the safety positions. So, in effect, I am pitching you the idea that I think the Cowboys could pretty much take any defensive position on the field in the draft and I would consider it a place that could help them. Conversely, on offense, where things are pretty well fortified -- unless they are replacing Terrence Williams' spot as the second outside WR -- I really don't see them taking offense in the first three rounds. Well, I suppose we shouldn't rule out tight end if the right guy falls into their laps. But you get the idea. For me, on the first two days of the draft (Thursday is Round 1 and Friday is Rounds 2-3, otherwise known as the two nights I work the draft on the radio and spend 100 percent of my draft prep on) the Cowboys should be thinking of ways to help their defense. And that will be reflected in my work here.
Spending days profiling centers and tackles and guards, and even quarterbacks and running backs, seems a little misguided to get people ready for the Cowboys' draft. Of course, I will try to spend a week on the top five running backs and another week on the top five quarterbacks just for historical purposes, but overall, I have already done three weeks on the defensive edge and line, and now this will be my second of three weeks on defensive backs. I think I will do 7-8 weeks and 35-40 profiles on defensive players, and then we will roll through the offense in a much more abbreviated fashion later as time permits. Likely 3-4 weeks on offense this year for a total of about 20 prospect profiles.
I hope that makes sense, that on my final "big board rankings," it will be with the Cowboys in mind and it will be really heavy on the defense. That works, though, because the 2017 draft is really heavy on defense as well in the top 50-100 players. Very heavy in DBs and D-linemen. Not so heavy in O-linemen and QBs. So, anyway, I thought you might appreciate the method to my madness.
And now, Week 5: USC's Adoree Jackson, Michigan's Jourdan Lewis and Jabrill Peppers, Alabama's Marlon Humphrey, and Clemson's Cordrea Tankersley.
ADOREE JACKSON - CB - USC
5'10 - 186 - 4.42 40 - 36" vertical
Last 2 Year Stats: 27 games, 6 interceptions, 19 passes broken up, 90 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, forced fumble, 2 Kickoff returns for TD, 4 Punt returns for TD.
Jackson is an incredibly talented game-breaker coming off a tremendous season and the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Award.
POSITIVES: Jackson has all of the gifts and measurables that you would want - not only in a cornerback - but in a game breaker who needs to touch the ball. USC would use him on kick and punt returns as well as looking for ways to get him the ball on their offense. But, at his core, he is a very strong corner who has all of the instincts and ball skills you would desire. He has fantastic mobility and hips and wants to play in press coverage with a physical edge. He closes on the ball and turns into a receiver if it is close to him. He wants to jam at the snap and then turn and stay in the pocket of his man. There is very little concern about him growing into the position over time.
CONCERNS: It is fair to also point out that with his tremendous tools comes a bit of an unrefined technique and even more disconcerting appearance to fall for most of the "double moves" and deception tricks that opponents will play on a ball hawk who they think is guessing too much. He will make some mistakes as a young pro as teams use his abilities against him (Janoris Jenkins type traits). Beyond that, if you watched his performance in Washington, you saw John Ross go at him all night and catch all sorts of balls versus Jackson, but you also saw Jackson pick off 2 passes including the upset-clincher. He will tackle, but he has some limitations with his size.
Overall, I must say that I am very impressed by what Jackson can be and now that he is a full-time football player, the sky seems to be the limit.
JABRILL PEPPERS - S - MICHIGAN
5'11 - 213 - 4.47 40 - 35.5" vertical
Last 2 years stats: 24 games - 20.5 tackles for loss, 116 tackles, 3.5 sacks - 10 Passes Broken Up - 1 Interception - Punt Return TD
Peppers is one of the more interesting prospects in the land as a do-it-all player, but people struggle with figuring out his perfect fit.
POSITIVES: He has uncommon physicality for a man his size and plays the game like a complete alpha male. He wants the game in his hands and he wants to destroy plays. Jim Harbaugh believed in his value as a hybrid joker who will play in the box and affect the game with blitzes and a knack for getting to the ball. Also, he would look for ways to get him the ball in special teams and on offense because he has some fantastic elusiveness. He appears to be perfect for where football is headed where you move safeties to linebacker and allow them to bring 4.5 wheels to the box if they have a linebacker's mentality when it comes to hitting and fighting against blocks. He sure looks like the type of player you would love to have on your team.
CONCERNS: It is important to point out that very smart draft people struggle with finding his home on a defense. I am not one of them because I would let him play that same strong safety/linebacker hybrid, but others wonder if he fits anywhere at the next level and maybe even a full time offensive player. He gets a reputation for "free-lancing" as well and I will confess that I am not sure how strong he will be in man-coverage situations and he also will guess too much in the secondary. I think his use as a deep safety will need depend on his instincts improving back there. He has speed, but you cannot "guess" back there. You have to play it honest.
Peppers is a guy I believe in as a 1st rounder. I would bet heavily on his future and I am willing to "bang the table" if a team needs a difference maker that reminds me of Troy Polumalu and just a hint of Charles Woodson. He can do so many good things on defense that I would get past the few things he cannot do.
CORDREA TANKERSLEY - CB - CLEMSON
6'1 - 199 - 4.40 40 - 32.5" vertical
Last 2 years stats: 30 games - 9 interceptions - 9.5 tackles for loss - 100 tackles - 20 passes broken up - sack.
Tankersley is yet another very accomplished and talented top corner in this draft with ideal size and speed.
POSITIVES: His best positives are pretty easy to see. In this day and age of looking for corners that do not appear to be outclassed by the wide receivers with Dez Bryant type skills, Tankersley has wonderful combination of a tall frame, wonderful speed and quickness, and then the ball skills to compete and even come away with the ball. He is long and confident and untested much of the time where he played a lot of Press-bail and zones. He closes on the ball well when it is in his area and will go get the ball for you. He will simply not get overtaken by a big receiver and therefore will play outside - often with his back to the sideline - and hold down the flanks for you.
CONCERNS: You have to use Tankersley properly and in the right scheme, because he does not appear to quite have the hips to go inside and to deal with underneath routes with quicker receivers. He will recover and close down a play, but guys can and do shake him in short spaces. He also is not going to be called a top tackler. Not that he won't tackle, but his interest level seems to come and go (which is not that uncommon amongst top college corners, of course). Also, like many on this list, he will eat the cheese on double moves at times.
Overall, Tankersley can do many of the things that teams want when they are seeking a potential #1 corner on the outside. In a league where every team seems to have a track star over 6'2 at WR, guys like Tankersley are in short supply. 6' corners who can run 4.4 are rare birds.
MARLON HUMPHERY - CB - ALABAMA
6'0 - 197 - 4.41 40 - No vertical measured at Combine
Last 2 years stats: 29 games - 5 interceptions - 6.5 Tackles For Loss - 81 tackles - 13 passes broken up - 3 forced fumbles.
Humphrey, the son of his 1st round pick father, has the wonderful combination of track star and big, physical corner.
POSITIVES: He is a very big and aggressive corner with the ability to play all of the coverages and do so with a physical edge that borders on going over the line on occasion when he hits with intent. He is fiery, but also has the confidence to play on his front foot and running downhill when a player is trying to get the edge and will attempt to blow that up. He can mirror guys as well as almost anyone in this class and also seems built for the big receivers in this league while also literally having the traits that allowed him to excel in the 110 meter hurdles. He sprints with ease and still can get to the ball and turn the ball over for his defense. This seems to be yet another 1st round corner with the ability to make a real difference at the next level.
CONCERNS: Despite having tremendous speed, he does get beat on verticals because of technique and perhaps even complacency from time to time. Watching him go head to head with Clemson's Mike Williams in the national title game suggested that as talented as big WRs are, you will not win every battle against them. All a guy like Humphrey can do is try to break even. He also has difficulty in working his way through traffic, but he is talented and engaged.
Humphrey is a very exciting prospect who shows how loaded this position is in this draft.
JOURDAN LEWIS - CB - MICHIGAN
5'10 - 188 - 4.54 40 - 34.5" vertical
Last 2 years stats: 23 games, 4 interceptions, 7 TFLs, 77 tackles, 31 Passes Broken Up, Forced Fumble
Lewis is an incredibly accomplished corner who is a prototypical "did it all" at the major college level who is intending to prove it all over again at the next level.
POSITIVES: It should be noted that nobody does defense quite like Jim Harbaugh and with that was some creative scheming with both Peppers and Lewis that allowed these guys to showcase their skills in ways that show off their versatility and skill components that many other DBs don't get to offer because their college coaches don't use them so liberally. Lewis played every where and would compete at high levels. He has great hips and footwork that allow him to compensate for less than amazing speed and size. He gets his hands on guys and while he flirts with penalties, he manages to cover guys quite well, including the slot. They blitz him and let him return kicks, too. He is a real football player who understands the game quite well.
CONCERNS: The issues are what the Combine brings to light. In a group of corners who have ideal size and measurables, Lewis does not have either. He is one of the smaller corners in this group and he is also one of the slower corners at the top of the draft. He is not a real physical option and he will not have the long speed. That said, he should be a fine slot corner. The questions will be how he is used. You will have to decide if you will ignore his college tape and focus on the combine stats, or if you are willing to trust the tape and label him a fine prospect who understands how to play the game.
For me, Lewis is a very interesting player. You absolutely recognize how useful he is, but in a group of corners who check more boxes, figuring out where his value is appropriate will be the major question.
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I think this week and last week show us how many DBs are available in Rounds 1-2. Next week, we will keep going with more defensive prospects:
NEXT WEEK: Wisconsin's T.J. Watt, Youngstown State's Derek Rivers, Florida's Jarrad Davis, Alabama's Reuben Foster, and Vanderbilt's Zach Cunningham.
