2015 NFL Draft #72 - Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor

I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.

Find all the profiles here.

Click here to see an interactive of how Petty compares with the top QBs of the draft.

Bryce Petty #14 of the Baylor Bears moves down the line of scrimage against the Michigan State Spartans during the second half of the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic at AT&T Stadium on January 1, 2015 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Sarah Glenn/Getty Images)

Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor - 6'3, 230 - RS Senior - 4.87 40

As we are all well aware, this sport is about the Quarterback position in just about every situation.  If you have a QB, you are able to overcome many obstacles.  But, if you don't have a QB, then, you are looking for that no matter how strong the team is overall.   2015 is not a great year to need a QB beyond the top 2, but there is certainly a local product that is the wildcard in this draft.  The soon to be 24 year-old RS Senior from Baylor, Bryce Petty.

Petty is a very interesting player who has many things to like.  Of course, keeping that from putting him squarely on Day 1 of the draft is something that we have known since Petty was in High School.  That Baylor does football in a different way than most schools.  There is no play-book.  They win on tempo.  They don't really use huddles.  And, they are running an offense that is often scoffed at for its numbers and its video game results.  They are certainly not ordinary.  And neither is their QB.  But, what I have a hard time understanding from my colleagues in the draft nerd community is the fact that we knew all of this.  Why then, did Petty go from being a Top 10 candidate 9 months ago to a guy who people aren't sure if he is a Top 50 guy now?  Because to me, the knocks on him were known last year.  He played a really solid 2014 while being hurt and I am trying to figure out what experts now don't appreciate.

So, to study, I examined the Baylor games against TCU, Oklahoma, and West Virginia.

What I liked:  Petty is a very big, strong-armed QB who is able to sling the ball from the far hashmark to the sideline with just a twist of his body.  This strength has likely led to rather poor mechanics at times, but arm strength is not an issue.  Also, his judgement is quite sound and he knows when to throw the ball and where to throw it.  He is not without mistakes, but his judgement is right where I need it.  Also, he engineers this offense with precision and patience that is not always a given with a big time QB.  The patience shown late in that TCU game - while down 21 in the 4th Quarter - was really impressive stuff.  He also looks cool in tight situations and brave as heck as he stands in against the blitz.  He played 2014 with a rather significant back injury - forever compared to Tony Romo's - and still would not bail out under many blitzes and stood tall and delivered.  His deep ball is beautiful, but he also throws crossers on ropes.

What I did not like:   I would love it if he looked a little more comfortable on the keeper when he runs the zone read.  He often stumbles down the field and despite having decent speed, looks pretty awkward on his feet.  He also was blitzed 19 times at West Virginia with the house and given that Baylor was defeated in that critical situation, one would have to say that it gave them issues.  That said, Oklahoma and others wanted to replicate it and were unable to do so.  Baylor figured it out because Petty was confident in where to go with the ball. In the tape below, he stared down his guy and led the TCU LB right into the path for a critical pick 6.  His health has a few notes - back and concussion - and he is a rather old prospect at 24.  We have seen older, but he won't get the benefit of the doubt with development that a 21 year old might, and given that he might need a year or two to transition to the world of playbooks, huddles, and complex offensive designs, you can see how age might cross the minds of those in decision-making positions.

Summary:  My summary of Bryce Petty is simple.  I like his game and I like his upside.  I think he can play big time QB and I assume if he gets the right fit he will be a solid starter in the NFL.  He is intelligent, ambitious, and has the tools.  Now, the right fit is vital and the clock is ticking.  Something tells me that a team like the Philadelphia Eagles would look at him and prefer Marcus Mariota, but at the price, this is the investment they will make.  He produces, stays out of trouble, comprehends what is asked of him, and delivers when he needs to do so.  He is not the perfect prospect and he has some hurdles to overcome, but I am certainly the type of guy who expects him to be grabbed earlier than some might think and perhaps even creep into the lofty heights of Late Round 1 or 2.  He is absolutely the 3rd best QB in this class that I have seen.

You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.

And, if you don't mind, please check out the Bob and Dan (BaD) Radio show in Dallas-Fort Worth, from 12p-3p, Monday-Friday, on Sportsradio 1310 and 96.7fm, The Ticket.  www.theticket.com 

2015 NFL Draft #70 - Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State

I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.

Find all the profiles here.

Click here to see an interactive of how Smith compares with the top WRs of the draft.

Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State - 6'0, 196 - Senior - 4.42 40

Devin Smith #9 of the Ohio State Buckeyes catches a 47 yard touchdown pass in the third quarter against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the All State Sugar Bowl at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on January 1, 2015 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

There are certainly players who have one particular skill that keeps them easily employed for many years in the National Football League.  The recommendation would easily be that if you could only have one particular trick, why not make it the one that puts points on the board?

The NFL deep threat is the name of the game.  If you have a guy who is simply too good at running by whoever you place on top of him, then suddenly you present the defense with a very easy choice.  Either place a safety over the top to assist the corner or be destroyed.  But, there is an easy catch that affected the Cowboys season in 2014 quite clearly - if you elect to put a safety on top of Dez Bryant play after play, then you are out-numbered in the box and will likely not have the personnel necessary to stop the run.   When that happens, you place the defense in a bind that they have no solution for except to hope for the best.

That is why a guy like Devin Smith will be picked rather quickly in this year's draft.  The weapon is not in the results he puts up, but rather in the results he threatens to put up if you don't go 2 over 1.  When speed is that terrifying, then there is almost no choice.  It worked for Ohio State and now he hopes to bring that similar home run ability to the NFL. We spent some time on many Ohio State games, with Michigan State, Illinois, and Wisconsin being the featured games for the video.

Smith wears #9

What I liked:  He is a tremendous burner who has really impressive ball skills when there is a ball to be won in the air.  He may not have fantastic size, but he does have a grade of athleticism that is pretty scary with 4.42 speed combined with a 39" vertical leap.  These two things make him very difficult to match when the ball is in the air.  Ohio State would put him in the slot and run him on the 9 route against whoever the matchup would be and it was generally a major opportunity for the Buckeyes to win big.  They literally ran the same play for touchdowns against Wisconsin twice in the 1st Quarter of their 59-0 win.  He is too fast and too capable to get the ball for there to be any other result.  He also has a real impressive knack with the over the shoulder catch.  His combo of go routes combined with simple stops and curls make him a either/or route guy who is very solid in that department.

What I did not like:   He only runs 2 routes!  Well, in fairness, I did see a dig route once and a few slants, but there is almost nothing but straight line stuff from him so the corner is pretty clear on what is happening.  If you put a safety over the top, then the corner sits short and Smith is neutralized.  He had only 33 catches in 15 games in 2014, so there is a major issue of production when the opponent sits on him, yet he scored 12 touchdowns on those 33 catches.  That is pretty crazy.  Also, he averaged 28.2 yards per catch which not only led the nation, but led the nation by a large margin.  He is limited in size and it is disconcerting that a senior who has been in that program for a while has such a limited route tree.  Is that all he is?  It is still valuable, but when he faces NFL corners, will the upside shine through as often?  If he only has 2 catches a game in the Big 10, there is a chance that he will be further minimized on Sundays, and there isn't much room for minimizing.

Summary:  He may be the #1 deep threat in this draft, but unlike the others (Green-Beckham, Kevin White), he doesn't have any other tricks and he doesn't have their superior size traits that say he can be taught to do other things well.  Now, he is solid on special teams as a cover guy, but there will be a real cost-benefit discussion about how far up you should take a player like this.  He might sneak into a Top 50 discussion, but I think any of these 1st round projections are a bit too rich for my blood.  A very nice player with very key skills, but just not enough versatility to invest too heavily.
You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.

And, if you don't mind, please check out the Bob and Dan (BaD) Radio show in Dallas-Fort Worth, from 12p-3p, Monday-Friday, on Sportsradio 1310 and 96.7fm, The Ticket.  www.theticket.com 

2015 NFL Draft #23 - Lorenzo Mauldin, DE/OLB, Louisville

I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.

Find all the profiles here.

Click here to see an interactive of how Mauldin compares with the top DE/LBs of the draft.

Lorenzo Mauldin, DE/LB, Louisville - 6'4, 255 - Senior

Louisville Cardinals defensive end Lorenzo Mauldin (94) greets fans during the Card March before facing the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium on Oct. 18, 2014.. (Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports)

Here is yet another option in a very plentiful and top-heavy draft for edge rushing defensive ends and linebackers.  Finding candidates who might be the answer is never hard as the draft offers us many players every year at this position.  The trick is finding the actual answer, who can make their game translate to Sundays like it did on Saturdays.  The differences are sometimes under-discussed, but for starters, the tackles at the NFL level are unlike anything these guys see in college, usually.  College football tackles are normally never moving on, and most that do are moving inside to guard.  So often, when evaluating edge rushers in college, you have to consider who they are beating as much as the pass rusher himself.

Mauldin has an amazing story and has overcome many obstacles growing up to get where he is today as a man.  As a player, he is clearly a leader in his own locker-room, and a guy who has been looked at to deliver impact moments and key stops more and more as his career has gone on at Louisville.  For his project, we looked at Georgia, Florida State, and Virginia.  I will confess at the top that he is a complicated study.

What I liked:  There are moments where he can make you jaw drop.  He comes around the edge like in the video above, swats the arms off him from the left tackle and blindsides the QB with textbook ease and performance.  He moves from LDE to RDE to OLB and sometimes even to MLB like we saw with Dante Fowler, where it looks like he has been handed the keys to the defense and told to go make plays.  He has a very impressive flexibility and bend to his body that makes edge rushing easier.  He has long arms and can win with quick and also show strength at times.  He is very active and is looking to swat passes when he doesn't get home.  He has a solid swim move.  He can drop into coverage and doesn't look lost, but his ability to change directions quickly might harm him here.

What I did not like:  More than anything, there were games where he just didn't look the same.  I mention this because in the Florida State and Georgia games, he was rather anonymous.  That said, he did make single plays that were significant in both.  He appears to be banged up and hampered by injury in both of those contests, so I would love to know his actual status as he played in both games.  More than that, he gets hung up very often in pass rushes where OL get their hands on him and he is stuck.  He can't break free with his arms like the other premium guys can.  He also looked slow on change of direction against Virginia where he misread a zone read and an end around and each time could not slam on the breaks and reaccelerate at a normal pace for a player in his position.  He appears to have average quickness for his spot and can get outflanked against the run with a false step to the inside - especially in the NFL.

Summary:  Like I said, this one is confusing.  He appears to be more ideal to be the outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense, yet the open field quickness will surely be tested there.  You watch 3 or 4 games and you generally feel like you know the player.  This time, I feel like there are some very interesting aspects to his game that make him a 1st round idea and other aspects that look like an average draft-able LB that you shouldn't overspend to get.  I think that his hamstring injury at midseason cut down on his production (6.5 sacks, 13 TFLs), but then you even ask about the numbers he did accumulate because he had 3 sacks against Wake Forest alone.  Is he a special player or is he a guy who flashes special qualities but cannot sustain it like you need if you are to spend a high pick on him?  Like a few of his colleagues in this position group, I feel like I will need to revisit him and choose new games to zero in before the draft.  As it stands, I think I see him in the 2nd/3rd rounds.

You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.

2015 NFL Draft #5 - Leonard Williams, DT, USC

I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football.  By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better.  It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.)

Leonard Williams, DE, USC - 6'5, 300 - Age 20

Defensive end Leonard Williams #94 of the USC Trojans sits on the sidelines during the college football game against the Arizona Wildcats at Arizona Stadium on October 11, 2014 in Tucson, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

There are players that come along that get you very excited to know you are looking at a guy who people will most likely talk about for the next decade.  There are no guarantees, but once in a while a prospect arrives and has almost nothing to complain about.  Welcome to that guy in this draft.  There may be someone who we examine that will be on his level, but I highly doubt there is anyone who will exceed his level of excellence in the 2015 draft.  I watched the Nebraska, California, and Stanford games to review his work.

Williams is just 20 years old.  He played at USC (very well) as a true freshman, and now, just 3 seasons into his college career he has turned pro and shot to the top of everyone's board.  He was a "Top 5" guy in the spring, the summer, the fall, and now the winter.  He is as versatile as they come and that is why it doesn't seem that he is scheme dependent.

What I liked: In short, just about everything.  He is versatile in every aspect, meaning he can beat you with cat-like quickness that is uncommon for a player of that size or he can beat you with strength.  He can beat you inside or outside.  He can play DT, NT, RDE, or LDE.  He can play the 5-technique in a 3-4 or the inside.  He can even stand up as a OLB on the outside if you wish, although that doesn't seem to be as natural.  The point is, you don't have to worry about how he fits.  His hands are quick and powerful, he swims right past his man in a blur, and the best attribute may be his ability to contort and squeeze through tight areas to split gaps wide open.  He gets off blocks, but he also holds them up with 1-arm until the ball carrier gets close, then pushes the OL away to make the stop.  His motor is great and he is as disruptive as they come.  You constantly see offenses scheme their entire day around him so as not to mess with him if possible.  In short, he is the best up front at what he does since Ndamukong Suh was at Nebraska.  In fact, if you needed a clone, there you go.  He plays the run very well and he has really impressive pass rush for a 300-pound hulk.  I could go on about him for quite a while.

What I did not like:  In short, almost nothing.  If there is anything that gives you brief pause, it is that he seemed to always be dealing with a nagging issue or injury.  It never appeared overly serious, but he had to gut through a shoulder and ankle issue in both 2013 and 2014.  Otherwise, he is a plug-and-play difference maker.

Summary: Every year, those of us who study prospects see plenty of players we think could go either way and end up making us look silly.  But, there are a few you are willing to guarantee their stardom moving forward, so much so that you realize he won't fall to your spot in the draft - which means now you just hope he goes somewhere in the league where he won't destroy your team very often.  In other words, Washington at #5 would not be a preferred destination for Mr Williams.  I am pretty sure he is going to be a force in the trenches for a long, long time.  And he is 20!

You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.