Showing posts with label Playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Playoffs. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 10, 2018

The DFW Playoff Chart



YearCowboysStarsMavericksRangers
1994NFC Champ2nd RoundOUTNO PLAYOFFS
1995NFL Champions1st RoundOUTOUT
19962nd RoundOUTOUT1st Round
1997OUT1st RoundOUTOUT
19981st Round3rd RoundOUT1st Round
19991st RoundNHL ChampionsOUT1st Round
2000OUTLost in FinalsOUTOUT
2001OUT2nd Round2nd RoundOUT
2002OUTOUT2nd RoundOUT
20031st Round2nd Round3rd RoundOUT
2004OUT1st Round1st RoundOUT
2005OUTNO SEASON2nd RoundOUT
20061st Round1st RoundLost in FinalsOUT
20071st Round1st Round1st RoundOUT
2008OUT3rd Round1st RoundOUT
20092nd RoundOUT2nd RoundOUT
2010OUTOUT1st RoundLost in W Series
2011OUTOUTNBA ChampionsLost in W Series
2012OUTOUT1st RoundWildcard
2013OUTOUTOUTOUT
20142nd Round1st Round1st RoundOUT
2015OUTOUT1st Round1st Round
20162nd Round2nd Round1st Round1st Round
2017OUTOUTOUTOUT
Totals11 of 2414 of 2315 of 247 of 23

Tuesday, September 01, 2015

Our 2015 Version of "Annual Playoff Reminders"



With just 9 days until the first game of the 2015 NFL season, perhaps we should take a minute to identify some things to consider when putting your NFC playoff field together.

Here is a fancy grid below which keeps a rolling 10-year grid on NFC playoff participation.  Below, you can see that 7 years in the last 10 is the high total for playoff appearances for Seattle and Green Bay, while a sad squad hasn't been in the post-season in the last decade - those St Louis Rams.  

Dallas, strutting around with new-found confidence is at 4, which is out paced by 5 NFC organizations (Seattle, Green Bay, New Orleans, New York Giants, and Philadelphia), but finally broke its 5 year drought with its berth last winter.  You can see by looking at the grid how it seems everyone gets a turn in the playoffs every few years.  Only 3 teams have not been in the playoffs since 2011 in the entire NFC - Chicago, Tampa Bay, and those Rams.  Parity!  

Green Bay has been to the playoffs 6 consecutive years which is the highest for any NFC team.  Seattle has now been to 3 straight playoff years - and 2 Super Bowls in a row - and then the only other team that has put consecutive years together would be Carolina.  San Francisco's streak was stopped last season.  


Team 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Total
Sea X X X X X X X 7
GB X X X X X X
X 7
NO X X X X X 5
NYG

X X X X X 5
Phil
X X  X X X 5
Dallas X X X X 4
Atl
X X X X 4
Car X X



X

X 4
SF
X X X
3
Chi
X X X 3
Minn X X X 3
Arz X X X 3
Wash
X X
2
TB
X X 2
Det X X 2
St L
0

(a Bold "X" denotes a Super Bowl appearance)

So, now you know who has made it and how many times.

Here is the AFC -

Team 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Total
NE X X X X X X X X X 9
Ind X X X
X X X X X X 9
Bal X
X X X X X X 7
Pit X
X X X X
X 6
Cin X X X X
 X

X 6
Den X X X X


X 5
SD
X


X X X X 5
NYJ



X X

X
3
KC
X

X X 3
Tenn

X X

2
Jax


X X 2
Hou
X X

2
Mia

X

1
Oak


0
Cle

0
Buf
0

The AFC is actually way more top-heavy.  New England and Indianapolis have 9 berths each in the last decade?  So, yeah, having a franchise QB definitely seems to help.  Meanwhile, 7 AFC teams have gone 2 or less times, so the bottom of the conference is quite awful.

But, what about this annual game where we try to project who the participants in the 2015 Playoffs will be? We all enjoy it every August, but most of my research seems to show that most of us just pick the same 6 teams who made the playoffs last year. They just look too good to reel in.
But, if you are planning on picking the Seahawks, Panthers, Packers, and Cowboys to all win their divisions and then the Lions and Cardinals to grab the Wildcards, then you need to know about this number -

"5.7"

What does the number 5.7 represent? Well, that is the average number of new teams that make the playoffs each year since the playoffs expanded in 1991.  Now, if only 12 teams make the playoffs each year and 5.7 (or pretty much half) are going to be teams that were NOT there last year, as history tells us, then who is going out of these 12 teams?

NFC: Seattle, Green Bay, Dallas, Carolina, Arizona, Detroit
AFC: Denver, New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Baltimore

So, at this point last year, most of us had Philadelphia, San Francisco, and New Orleans returning to the playoffs.  None of them made it.  Same with the Chiefs and Chargers on the other side.

By the way, although we do believe this to be a truth that will stand the test of time, obviously if 5.7 is the average, there are years where we go to the high end and the low end of this. In 2003, we actually had 8 new teams enter the playoffs in a year that seemed completely upside down and random. Then, in 1995 and last year, only 4 new teams made the tournament - just 1 new team in the AFC - making some believe that this thing is determined before the season even begins.

Here is the chart for your examination of the year-by-year progression:


Year# NewNew Teams making Playoffs
20145Dal, Arz, Det, Pit, Bal
20135NO, Phi, Car, KC, SD
20124Was, Sea, Min, Indy
20116NYG, SF, Det, Cin, Hou, Den
20105Sea, Atl, Chi, Pitt, KC
20096Dal, GB, NO, Cin, NE, NYJ
20087Phi, Atl, Car, Min, Arz, Mia, Bal
20076Was, TB, GB, Pit, Ten, Jac
20067Phi. Dal, NO, SD, Bal, NYJ, KC
20057Was, Car, TB, NYG, Chi, Cin, Jac
20045Min, Atl, SD, Pit, NYJ
20038Stl, Car, Dal, Sea, NE, KC, Bal, Den
20025NYG, Atl, Ten, Cle, Ind
20016SF, GB, Chi, Pit, NE, NYJ
20006Phi, NYG, NO, Den, Bal, Oak
19997Det, TB, StL, Was, Sea, Ten, Ind
19985Arz, Dal, Atl, NYJ, Buf
19975NYG, Det, TB, KC, Mia
19965Min, Car, Jac, Den, NE
19954Phi, Atl, Ind, Buf
19945Chi, Mia, Clev, NE, SD
19935Det, GB, NYG, Oak, Den
19926Min, SF, Phi, Mia, Pit, KC


Last year when I did this study, I wrote, "Is that your greatest case for Dallas getting into the 2014 playoffs?  The fact that every year the NFC seems to put 3 new teams in the tournament?"

I am still working on my picks.  But, the annual reminder of 5.7 certainly makes this exercise more complicated than we are willing to admit.

Monday, March 31, 2014

2014 Playoff Drought Update

Today is Opening Day in Major League Baseball.  It is a day of enthusiasm around the sport and the highest water mark of hope springing eternal for the 30 major league franchises.  That will last for about another few hours and then the party will dissipate rather early for many teams as their weaknesses begin to bubble up to the surface.

For the Rangers, this is not likely to be the case (at least early in the year), but it has been a historic spring training where the usual over-reaction to every negative piece of news has not really felt like an over-reaction because the cumulative total of the news has actually been quite disheartening.

What started as merely Derek Holland and his dog falling on the stairs (60 Day DL, Knee Surgery) has added up into stress regarding Harrison, Lewis, Profar, Andrus, Soto, and yes, even the indestructible baseball cyborg named Darvish.

Nevertheless, the Rangers are considered a contender as we open the season today to the AL West crown and to return to the post-season after a 1-year (feels more like 2 years given the 1 game of 2012 - JOE SAUNDERS!!!!!) absence.  That can go south in a hurry if health doesn't start cooperating, but at least for now, take heart, everybody.

Now, what about the area colleagues?

Well, on the morning of Opening Day, The Dallas Stars are said to have a 63% chance of making the playoffs with 8 games left to play according to various computer simulations.  They are a young and exciting team with what appears to be a very bright future, but whether this might be the year they can get back in the playoffs and keep their drought from reaching 6 playoff years remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, the last champions from our fair city, the Dallas Mavericks wake up this morning with a 79% chance of getting in (thanks to the Phoenix Suns losing last night) and appear to have a pretty good chance of making sure their one year out of the playoffs doesn't become two in a row.  They have been the model of quality for over a decade (never leave us and never get old, Dirk) and while we don't have a great idea of what the future holds with the Mavericks like we might with the Stars, they have certainly earned the benefit of the doubt due to their reputation and their owner who likes losing about as much as he likes referees.

The Cowboys are the Cowboys and therefore to say they won't make the playoffs is ridiculous because they have been playing for the post-season in each of the last 3 years in the final game, but they have also lost all 3 of those final games and therefore, to say they will make the playoffs is equally ridiculous.  They are close enough to be in the mix, but far enough to be a punchline as well.

8-8.  But, as you can see, with one more missed postseason this fall, they will equal the 1986-1990 drought that is the longest since the franchise first made the playoffs back in 1966.  That, for one of the proudest franchises in the business, is clearly a very poor sign of what is to come, and with an aging Tony Romo it is tough to say there is a bright future straight ahead.

I have been tracking these numbers for quite a while, but not since 2013.  So, below is a chart that runs from 1994 until today. Why 1994?  Because that was the first time our city had a team in each of the "Big 4" sports.  Since then, every year at least one of the big 4 would be in the post-season.  Until 2013.

In 2013, the Mavs, Rangers, Stars, and Cowboys all fell just short of their respective post-seasons.  Take a look:

YearCowboysStarsMavericksRangers
1994NFC Champ2nd RoundMissedNO PLAYOFFS
1995NFL Champions1st RoundMissedMissed
19962nd RoundMissedMissed1st Round
1997Missed1st RoundMissedMissed
19981st Round3rd RoundMissed1st Round
19991st RoundNHL ChampionsMissed1st Round
2000MissedLost in FinalsMissedMissed
2001Missed2nd Round2nd RoundMissed
2002MissedMissed2nd RoundMissed
20031st Round2nd Round3rd RoundMissed
2004Missed1st Round1st RoundMissed
2005MissedNO SEASON2nd RoundMissed
20061st Round1st RoundLost in FinalsMissed
20071st Round1st Round1st RoundMissed
2008Missed3rd Round1st RoundMissed
20092nd RoundMissed2nd RoundMissed
2010MissedMissed1st RoundLost in W Series
2011Missed MissedNBA ChampionsLost in W Series
2012MissedMissed1st RoundWildcard
2013MissedMissedMissedMissed
2014



Totals9 of 2013 of 1912 of 206 of 19

Now, in 2014, the Stars and Mavericks look like they have a solid chance of breaking this drought, but I am not sure with 2 weeks to play that anyone is willing to bet on it.  At best, it looks like #8 seeds and that could be a playoff time and over within a week.  But, of course, the whole point of all of this is supposed to be getting in and seeing if you can get on that Cinderella run.  Not overly realistic, but since the #8 seed Los Angeles Kings won the Cup, then there is always that chance.

So, after a historically bad 2013, they are trying collectively to rebound in 2014.  We won't hold our collective breath just yet, but with the Stars, Mavericks, Rangers, and Cowboys all on the fringe, the odds of going 0 for 4 again aren't great, but also aren't impossible.

This is the longest city-wide drought since the Big 4 have all been here.  Will it end this month?

Thursday, March 07, 2013

Worst Years EVER

This post is a bit of an update on something we talked about in this space about 5 years ago (granted, this space has changed title sponsors about 3 times since then - Thanks, Fox Sports Southwest for their continued employment).

I have always had the theory that cities like ours, as opposed to the "one-horse towns" do not experience prolonged depression and mourning when our teams fail...we just move on to the next one. The Mavs make us sad? Its' Rangers season! The Rangers are fading? Hello, Cowboys Camp! And so on, and so on...

Conversely, in San Antonio, for instance, when the Spurs fail, it is time for Spurs off-season mourning. That is a totally different way of sports way of life. Much like the way the folks in England live life with their soccer teams.  They care about one team and one team only.  The victories are higher, but the failures - of which there are many - are much more profoundly painful.

Admirable in some ways, maddening in others. Anyway, here is Trey's question.
Bob,

With the Mavs struggling coming down the stretch I started thinking about all the major Dallas sports teams missing the playoffs in the same year. Obviously we are used to seeing this from the Rangers and the Mavs had that awful stretch in the 90’s but I couldn’t find a year where this has happened since the Stars came to town in ’93. However, I’ll admit my research was quick and not that thorough. Also, with the way the sports calendar wraps around from year to year I kinda got tired-head looking at it. I was wondering if you had any better insight on this in your sports brain...

Sincerely,

Trey

Could 2013 be the worst year in the history of this 4-sport town?

This kind of reminds me of a book I once enjoyed, True Believers by Joe Queenan, where he claimed sports was one big shell-game of hope.  They put enough franchises in each city that invariably, one will capture our imagination and keep us locked into the industry while the others are allowed to exist until they figure something out.  We are never able to walk away because while 3 screw around, one is always bound to be at least good enough to keep us.

Anyway, below is what my newest chart looks like dating back to 1994, the first year we were officially a 4-horse town:

YearCowboysStarsMavericksRangers
1994NFC Champ2nd RoundMissedNO PLAYOFFS
1995NFL Champions1st RoundMissedMissed
19962nd RoundMissedMissed1st Round
1997Missed1st RoundMissedMissed
19981st Round3rd RoundMissed1st Round
19991st RoundNHL ChampionsMissed1st Round
2000MissedLost in FinalsMissedMissed
2001Missed2nd Round2nd RoundMissed
2002MissedMissed2nd RoundMissed
20031st Round2nd Round3rd RoundMissed
2004Missed1st Round1st RoundMissed
2005MissedNO SEASON2nd RoundMissed
20061st Round1st RoundLost in FinalsMissed
20071st Round1st Round1st RoundMissed
2008Missed3rd Round1st RoundMissed
20092nd RoundMissed2nd RoundMissed
2010MissedMissed1st RoundLost in W Series
2011Missed MissedNBA ChampionsLost in W Series
2012MissedMissed1st RoundWildcard
2013



Totals9 of 1913 of 1812 of 196 of 18


After accounting for each year, and changing the math to not penalize the Stars and Rangers for each sport canceling its championship one year, here are the findings.

On a sport by sport basis, we can see that the Stars are going through their worst run in Dallas by a mile.  So much so that after playing their first 15 years with 13 playoff berths, they are now on the verge of going 5 straight unless they can get in this spring.  That is still doable.

The Mavericks are 2nd, after digging a huge hole in the 1990s, they haven't missed since Dave Campo's 1st year in office.

The Cowboys are the Cowboys, and now having gone 3 seasons without the playoffs are technically in the exact same place they were after the 3 missed seasons with Campo.  That hurts.

And the Rangers have hit 3 playoffs in a row (although 2012 is a bit of a wildcard technicality - in any other year before 2012, that is not the playoffs.  But, with the "expanded Wildcard format" we must concede that what used to be a play-in game is now a play-off games) and try to keep their good fortune going this season.

So, no years where all 4 teams missed the playoffs, but some less than stellar years were mixed in, including 3 years where 3 of the 4 teams missed. They are below with painful videos provided by youtube:

1997 - A year in which the Cowboys, Mavericks, and Rangers all missed. This was a particularly rare performance from the Cowboys who made the playoffs every other year from 1991 to 1999. The Rangers missed for the only year between 1996-1999. The Mavericks never went once in the 1990's, and the Stars, who were the only team to make the playoffs, were kicked out promptly on the Todd Marchant goal in Game 7's overtime. Below, find the painful evidence.



2000 - This year is tough to call a "down" year, given that the Stars were in the Stanley Cup Finals (Stinking Jason Arnott). But, the Mavs were in year 1 of the Cuban experiment (Best remembered as the Dennis Rodman year, even if he only did play 12 memorable games). The Cowboys were in year 1 of the Campo era, and the Rangers traded Juan Gonzalez after the 1999 playoff year and dropped 24 games in the standings. Below, find the quietest moment in Reunion Arena hockey history (provided the Marchant goal above wasn't):



2002 - This year saw the Stars with a rare playoff miss (Goodbye, Ken Hitchcock); A somewhat ordinary Cowboys playoff miss (Goodbye, Dave Campo); and, another miss of the playoffs by the Rangers (Hello, Jerry Narron. Goodbye, Jerry Narron). But, the new darling of the metro-plex, those Dallas Mavericks were in. After sweeping the Timberwolves, despite Chauncey Billups and Kevin Garnett doing well, the Mavs hit the buzzsaw that was the Sacramento Kings. The Mavs split in No-Cal in the first two games, before losing both games in Dallas and then dropping Game 5 back at Arco to fall to the Kings, 4 games to 1. You may recall that 2002 was the year the Kings seemed to have the best team in the league (they had the best record), but dropped a very hotly contested 7 game war with the Lakers in the Western Finals. If you can handle the upset stomach, below see the Game 4 winner from Mike Bibby as he put the Mavs to the sword:



2005 - This year, the rather non-descript Rangers put 4 all-stars in the mid-summer classic but finished under .500 yet again, the Cowboys lost 4 of 6 on the way in and missed the playoffs in Drew Bledsoe's 1 full year under center, and the NHL decided the best way to fix their sport was to basically try to murder it in cold blood.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks had a crazy 2005 season, which started the summer before by letting Steve Nash get away.  This brought in young Devin Harris and Jason Terry to try to sort out the point guard situation that never was fully sorted.  To make matters crazier, they opened with the Houston Rockets in the playoffs and quickly lost both games 1 and 2 at home.  Then, they stormed back with a giant win in Game 7 by blowing out the Rockets by 40, 116-76.  From there, they were reunited with Nash in the 2nd round of the playoffs and gutted in Game 6 by Nash and friends in Dallas.  This game is known for many moments, most of which can be seen below:



So, in 19 years, only 4 have had happened where only 1 team went to the post-season.  Of those, 2000 was a Stanley Cup Finals and 2002 and 2005 at least had a series win for the one team to get through.

That leaves 1997 as the year to beat for worst year ever in DFW's 4-team era.

2013, though, should not be underestimated.  The Mavs look lost, the Stars are borderline, the Rangers appear to have taken a step back, and the Cowboys are anyone's guess.

Could this be the first year everyone is out?  At this moment, it remains a story worth tracking for sure.