Bag of Footballs - May 22 - All Eyes on Dez Bryant in 2017

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/bob-sturm/2017/05/22/eyes-will-dez-bryant-ever-season

/Smiley N. Pool/Staff Photographer

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant comes out of the tunnel to take the field before an NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday, Jan. 1, 2017, in Philadelphia. (Smiley N. Pool/The Dallas Morning News)

By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

All eyes on Dez

It seems like every offseason for the last several years, there has been reason to write a piece on Dez Bryant and where his career is taking him and his team. He has been the face of this franchise for a few years running, as a bridge between the older Cowboys (Tony Romo and Jason Witten) and the new ones (Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott). He has more jerseys sold and more fans for life than almost anyone in the 19 seasons I have covered this team. He is adored and revered by almost all, local or national.

 

He got there because he was capable of things like this:

... and this:

... and this:

You won't often find wide receivers with that type of brute strength. His personality and charm simply run up the score, but at the core is a player who could not be stopped when he was determined to get into the end zone.

And yet, in this sport where recency bias plays a large role, you can definitely make the case that he needs a massive 2017 to re-establish his league dominance. Actually, you could make the case he needs a big 2017 to show he deserves his very well-compensated job in 2018.

Let me be clear: I have very little belief that the Cowboys and Jerry Jones would break up with Dez Bryant in the next 12 months. He means too much to the franchise as a face, a presence in the room, and just as a marketing machine of what the Cowboys are all about. Furthermore, we know how loyal Jerry is to his favorites, and there is no question that Dez would enjoy the benefits of a longer leash. But, from a simple question of playing to his level of compensation -- what the NFL has had its top players measured on since the inception of the salary cap -- there is no question that the clock is ticking to save his massive contract from being a massive disappointment.

Bryant has the second-largest contract of any wide receiver in the NFL. He signed his deal in the summer of 2015, when so many wide receivers were all getting new deals. Julio Jones got the biggest, at $71.2 million ($47 million guaranteed), and then Dez and Demaryius Thomas slid in right beneath with $70 million deals that were nearly identical -- save for Dez getting $45 million in practical guarantees and Thomas getting $43 million. These deals would take the three wide receivers from about ages 26 to 30, so we had some very interesting apples-to-apples comparisons for players in their primes at this most vital position.

So, I took the seven biggest receiver contracts (all over $50 million) since 2015 and ran a chart. Six of them (all but Antonio Brown) signed their deals in 2015 and Brown signed his in 2017. With that, we ran the statistical production of these seven receivers for the past two seasons. As you might imagine, Dez and his injury issues have put him well behind his colleagues:

I also took the liberty to rank them from first to seventh in each statistical category over the same span of time, so that we can see who is doing what:

From this, you can see that Dez ranks last in every single category, save for touchdowns, where he outranks Jeremy Maclin by one.

This is all very troubling, of course. If you are going to give your receiver top-of-the-industry dollars, then you are doing it with the idea that he will produce at his 2012-14 levels, when he was a top-five receiver in the league, thus putting himself in position to be paid like one. Back then, the top five were Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, Andre Johnson, and then Dez Bryant. Vincent Jackson, A.J. Green, Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall were likely the next five.

You pay guys based on what they have done to set the pace for what they will do. Unfortunately, -- and, again, it is important to remember that this is through no fault of his own -- he has not played anywhere close to a top-five level. In fact, last season, he was 84th in receptions, 51st in yardage and tied for ninth in touchdowns. He had 3-4 incredible games, including his big night in Pittsburgh and a really big day against Green Bay in the playoffs.

The biggest issue with Bryant's production, obviously, is his injury situation. In 2016, he suffered a concussion and a hairline fracture in his knee. In 2015, he broke his foot twice and required surgery, and appeared try to gut through the pain. Nobody would ever question his toughness or amazing physical style. But, with players who fit this profile in any sport (but especially this one), they don't always age well.

By the way, if you would like some more rankings and stats, here are those same tables for 2015-16 as they pertain to the Cowboys themselves. If we are blaming the quarterback situation from 2015, or the rookie quarterback in 2016, that would apply to these players, too, right?

And the rankings of the four top receivers on the Cowboys against each other:

So, again, he can still catch the fade for a touchdown and is impossible to cover in the red zone, but as far as catches or yardage go, he is fourth out of four, and one of those four is a 35-year-old tight end in Witten. Surely, his luck has been bad and like any other contract, there is implied risk for both parties. But has he already left his prime, based on his "beast mode" style that puts too much stress on the body as he leaves his 20s?

Furthermore, there is a really interesting story revolving his contract, and the way the Cowboys have handled it relative to their handling of Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick, or even Witten's. We know the drill around here. Every spring, we hear of cap stress and the need to find money. Every spring, the big earners get their contracts reworked to create this room.

But, according to everyone in the know, the Cowboys have not touched Dez Bryant's contract once since it was signed. No restructuring and no pushing the cap hits down the road. They are paying him out on schedule. Why is this important? Well, I will tell you. If -- and like I wrote at the top, it is a massive long shot with the way the Cowboys love him -- they wished to say goodbye to Dez Bryant if 2017 was just as disappointing as 2015 and 2016, they could actually save quite a bit of money against the cap.

In 2018, he counts $16.5 million to play versus just $8 million if they walked away from him. And then in the final year of 2019, he counts another $16.5 million and would cost just $4 million to cut. In other words, they had guaranteed Dez $45 million when he signed his deal and will have paid him all $45 million by the end of this season. All they would owe moving forward in Years 4 and 5 would be the prorated signing bonus. This may not mean anything, but in talking with a few different folks who make decisions, it is not a shock they haven't touched his deal. The feeling has always been that based on his style, when he loses his ability to simply overpower players as a receiver, his career may not have much of a second act. He doesn't have the wheels or the route-running genius to mature into a Larry Fitzgerald-type as he extends his career. Bryant is a special player with special and unique gifts. The question remains how long he can hold on to them while defenders try to attack his vulnerable knees and ankles.

Again, at this point, we would still all agree that a lot of this is circumstantial evidence and we all will still pencil Dez Bryant in for 1,200-1,300 yards and a dominant 2017. His 2012-14 run looks like it might have been his peak (well-timed to get his deal in 2015), but there is no reason he can't return to that in 2017, as he is still dominating, if you look at his signature moments in 2016. But, it isn't just about his missed time. He has played in 22 of 32 games in these past few years and, of receivers who played in 22 games or fewer in the past two years, Dez still trails Alshon Jeffery, Sammy Watkins, Steve Smith, Jordy Nelson, Eric Decker and Calvin Johnson. Nelson (who did not play a snap in 2015) and Johnson (who did not play a snap in 2016) played just 16 games and outproduced Dez in every category.

And, while Jordy Nelson has the benefit of a quarterback situation that Bryant has not had, it is tough to say Alshon Jeffery or Sammy Watkins or Eric Decker have had amazing situations during this span. And nobody is handing any of those guys $70 million, either.

I know this will not be a popular opinion piece, and Dez Bryant is as beloved a player as I can recall, which means that even if he has another season like the past two, nobody would advocate moving on.

But I do think it is interesting that the Cowboys have not touched his deal this offseason when they needed some cash. I think they have responsibly put themselves in a good spot with his money. If they need to do something, they are in a very good position to do so.

Meanwhile, Bryant remains determined to re-establish his spot in the hierarchy of pass-catchers in this league. Reports of his offseason workouts all verify that he has not lost any sort of fire in his belly, and he certainly doesn't believe he has played his best football.

That is great news for all involved, because 2017 is a year when he needs to quiet any sort of talk about a decline.

Monday Bag of Footballs - Drafting Pro Bowlers

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/bob-sturm/2017/05/15/bag-footballs-front-office-leads-league-drafting-pro-bowlers

May. 15, 2017 8:44am

Finally, we have dug our way out from under the heap of draft discussions and news long enough to get to a project that has been in my bin since April.  I realize this is more of one of those "Ask Sports Sturm" topics, but perhaps you will indulge me to avoid exciting mini-camp news about how so and so looked like standing in the slot or so and so appearing to be in a blitzing posture on a beautiful May afternoon long enough to tackle something far more irrelevant.  

And that is a single, solitary Adam Schefter tweet from several weeks ago.  From the looks of his tweet, he merely took a picture of someone else's research, but regardless, the moment he sent this out to his vast Twitter audience, the internet broke from Cowboys fans sending it to me (and others, I am sure) who have suggested the Cowboys could improve their drafting.

Here it is in all of its glory:

Now, it is an odd sample - 15 years - that should tell you right from the start that arbitrary sample sizes can give us all sorts of results to fit one's agenda.  But, 15 years also covers almost every active player who is still in football, so I have no issues with it.  Tom Brady and a few others predate the 2002 draft, but it is down to a simple handful.  

For the Cowboys 2002 is a clumsy fit.  In 2002, the Jerry Jones draft room was in full effect with Larry Lacewell and friends.  Then, in 2003, Bill Parcells was in full power and cleaned out a good part of the front office (Lacewell) over the next few years.  By 2007, when Parcells was gone, it seemed to be a Jeff Ireland draft.  And then by 2008-2010, it seemed like Jerry Jones, Wade Phillips, and even Lacewell was back in the mix to some extent along with young Will McClay and Stephen Jones beginning to have bigger seats.  By 2011, we believe that Jason Garrett, Jones, and McClay started having a greater influence on things and that has only grown until now.  So, 2 things from this paragraph.  1) I used the word "seemed" a lot because the Cowboys are great at not being fully transparent about who has what say on things - partly because I think it has changed countless times.  There is not a consistent system that can be pointed at as their way of doing business.  Some times Jerry Jones has the influence.  Other times, they will say they asked Butch Davis to vouch for Bruce Carter or Rod Marinelli to break a tie on Shariff Floyd and they would.  And 2) the front office has evolved into at least 5 different groups of football brains in these 15 drafts.  Jerry has always sat at the head of the table, but the others may vary.  

And finally, as I am one to do this sort of thing, I personally checked the math.  Using the fabulous www.profootballreference.com draft finder tool, you can easily roll through this and I found Scheffer's tweet to be absolutely true.  The Cowboys have found more pro bowl berths from their draft than anyone else in the sport.  By a mile.  An amazing 37% more than anyone else in the sport.  I really think that is amazing, and I think you should find it amazing, too.  Here is my less beautiful graphic:

So, yes, a few things here:

1) I agree, pro bowls are a very sloppy way to measure quality.  Every year, the cliche is that everyone gets to go to the pro bowl.  It doesn't prove anything.  We all agree.

2) the NFL average is 29 per team and the Cowboys have 62???  Seriously?  Yes.  

3) Let me stop you before you say it.  62 Pro Bowls did not really translate to playoff wins or a Super Bowl.  We get that.  Everybody does.  If you were forced to choose between good players and a good team, you would always take the team.  But, usually, having good players helps make a good team.  That is what is weird about this.  

4) It should be pointed out that during 2002-2016, there have only been 8 teams in the entire NFL that have more regular season wins than the Cowboys.  The Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Packers, Broncos, Eagles, Seahawks, and Ravens.  So, while many act like the Cowboys have been bad during this stretch "since the triplets", we should at least point out that on a winning percentage basis, they are still a top 10 team during their "down time".  At 131-109 over those 15 seasons.  Pretty good, to be honest.

5) 2nd place is the Chiefs.  Also surprising and also no real post-season achievements of note during this stretch.  And they are actually sub-.500 during that stretch.  

So, how do they get to 62?  Well, Jason Witten has 10 and DeMarcus Ware has 9.  Roy Williams and Andre Gurode both went 5 times each.  Tyron Smith and Jay Ratliff are both at 4.  So, we already have 37.  Zack Martin, Travis Frederick, Dez Bryant, and DeMarco Murray are all at 3.  That puts you at 49.  So, just with those names, you already are better than any other team in football.  Sean Lee and Terrance Newman both have 2 and then 9 more guys each have gone once.  

And this number does not even include Tony Romo.  Romo was undrafted, so he is not included.  So, if you really want to run up the score, you would put Romo's 4 pro bowls - 2006, 2007, 2009, and 2014 spots - and get to 66.  Again, this is not to suggest anything more than I find it amazing.  The entire league thinks getting to 40 is impressive.  The Cowboys have 66.  

But, again, what does the Pro Bowl even mean?  Anyone of us who follow football know that All-Pro teams are the real bar.  That should tell us the true story.  Only 22 players a year get to the All-Pro 1st team that puts these guys into the Hall of Fame.  One of the highest honors a football player can receive.  

SOOOOOOO, let's run this study back with only 1st Team All-Pro teams from drafted players from each team from the 2002-2016 drafts:

I was amazed when I saw this - having done this research myself - but it is true again.  No team has drafted more 1st Team All Pro players since 2002 than the Dallas Cowboys.  

DeMarcus Ware 4, Witten, Martin, and Smith each have 2.  Roy Williams, Ratliff, Frederick, Murray, Bryant, Lee, and Elliott all have 1 for a grand total of 17.   Again, this leads the NFL and in a league where the average is 7.25, it doubles that total.  

As you can see, Green Bay has 3.  Washington 0.  So, 17 seems pretty phenomenal when Ted Thompson and Green Bay are credited for being great drafters.  

Now, here is the other side of all of this.  The Cowboys have nailed the draft at the top.  They have clearly done the most with their first round picks.  That list of Ware, Martin, Smith, Williams, Frederick, Bryant, and Elliott tell us that they have nailed their 1st rounders as much as anyone.  

It doesn't say that depth is what wins in the NFL.  We have always said that the Cowboys have a "top heavy" roster that has as much talent at spots 1-10 as anyone.  Where they have lost - especially after December starts - is the depth down to spot 53 where they can survive the march to the Super Bowl as well as other teams.  We blame these guys at the top of the roster - Romo for sure - for this team not winning the big one, but it is usually the quality down the roster and down the draft that helps these teams survive.  And that is where the Cowboys are finally catching up, but have always lingered behind a bit.

So, it is all true.  Every bit of his tweet.  The Cowboys have blown away the competition in finding Pro Bowlers and All-Pros in their drafts.  They should be commended.  But, of course, there is one reason why teams go through all of this and that is to pursue Lombardi Trophies.  

The rest of these fun facts are just numbers on a page.  They are true numbers, but the league isn't impressed unless you can win things with them.  They maybe on the right path now, but with just 2 postseason wins since 2002 - fewer than the Bears, Texans, Buccaneers, in fact, and tied with the Tennessee Titans - the Cowboys won't get recognition until they make these great numbers add up to January glory.  

Anyway, an interesting little project for you on this May Monday Morning.

Bag of Footballs - April 10 - Romo Edition

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2017/04/10/bag-footballs-tony-romo-edition

Tom Fox/Staff Photographer

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo (9) throws a pass as guard Ronald Leary (65) provides the block in the first quarter at Soldier Field in Chicago, Thursday, December 4, 2014. (Tom Fox/The Dallas Morning News)

By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

Editor's note: This originally ran on April 10. SportsDay is periodically bringing back past stories while the Cowboys are in their offseason. This was written right after Tony Romo joined CBS as an analyst.

 

It has been a bizarre week in the city as we have tried to work our way through the last chapter (maybe) of the Tony Romo story as it pertains to his time as your favorite QB of your favorite team. 

There are some similarities to a loved one with a terminal disease, knowing that he has an issue that is going to end his run, but how much time do we have to enjoy time together before it is too late?  

So, this week, I decided to rummage through my writings from the span of his career and tried to retrace the steps of just how long we have been dealing with Romo's final chapter.  QBs get hurt all of the time, so the 2010 collarbone or the 2008 thumb are just hazards of the job.  No big deal and there was no reason to believe that Romo's health was going to be an issue.  He was still the same old Romo, doing awesome things and doing crazy things and trying to compensate for an offensive line that had been diminished over years of neglect.  

It first became a theme in 2013.  As far as I can tell, this is the first time I started getting worried about where this Romo train was headed.  It was his age 33 season, but there were a few ominous issues starting to creep in that suggested he might not be the same guy that he had been.  

You may recall that spring of 2013 is when he had the "cosmetic procedure" to remove a cyst on his back.  We were assured the entire time that there was nothing really to see here and it was what they said it was.  I am not insisting that we wander down that road again.  But, I will say that almost immediately in 2013, he was showing you moments -- however rare or isolated they may be -- where Romo did not quite seem to be the same "care-free" QB that we knew.  He returned and did a few things to suggest that he knew that not everything was right and he needed to avoid big collisions as much as possible.  

I remember this one from Week 4 of 2013 in San Diego.  It may have been nothing.  But, it stuck in my head that day for quite a while as he began to "hear footsteps" and he would also employ the "chuck and duck" throws that became a bit more of a staple in 2013 and 2014.  The throws where he tries to hang in there to make the throw, but the millisecond it leaves his fingers, he bails out to protect himself rather than holding his follow-through or standing tall in the pocket.  

This one from that day against the Texans in 2014 is a great example of him making this work.  He would do this countless times in 2013 and 2014.  Sometimes it would fall incomplete and other times it would find its target, but it certainly is not the way the position is taught or fundamentally sound to duck for cover before the ball is gone.  

He was doing it out of necessity.  And as the play shows, he was pulling it off.

Which is why I became a bit stubborn about where his health had taken him.  I often liken these things to a fighter pilot.  It isn't when the pilot is actually physically unable to do things when his performance begins to decline, but rather when he mentally realizes his vulnerability and that he comes to terms with the idea that he cannot keep taking these hits anymore like he once was.  

Some people read things like this and get annoyed, but if you watch football for long enough you realize the realities of this savage occupation.  Every player has a finite amount of time to work with and it is up to him to sort through it the best he can.  

This is from a blog entry from Jan 8, 2014 - basically the week after he had another back surgery after missing the finale in 2013:

If you follow this blog, you know I have tried to identify what is going on in his game a number of times, and you can read my previous thoughts here after the San Diego game and here against Detroit and here against Chicago. I have tried to figure out what they are doing differently and I have definitely looked at play calling and the "risk aversion" theories of Jason Garrett and Tony Romo where they seem to take a "play it safe" mentality into many games - especially on the road - in an effort to stay away from the untimely interception that we also have written about at great length.

In none of those did I actually suggest that he appears afraid to get hit, because that is an incredibly insulting thing to say about a guy who plays a position that requires more courage - even at its most basic level - than most of us have ever been asked or will be asked to exhibit (assuming most of us have never been in combat, etc). He gets hit for a living, so nobody should ever consider terms of soft or wimpy or anything you can come up with for a person who plays QB for a living in the NFL.

But, if we can all agree that the more you get hit, the more it hurts; and the more it hurts, the less you want to get hit, then it would seem to me that there is a reason veteran QBs get rid of the ball quicker than the young guys do (in general). Simply because they have learned the hard way to "pick your spots" to stand in there and take a beating. Further, Romo has been the victim of extremely poor protection for a number of years that has resulted in a broken collarbone, broken ribs, and a punctured lung as well as who knows what else we have not had documented. Doctors have a hard time quantifying what the wear and tear does to the body over the course of a decade of treating it like this, but they usually conclude with the statement that "the human body was not designed with this treatment in mind."

Too many times in 2013 (with the exception of the outlier against Denver where he seemed to step on the field and insist on doing everything to win that game even if it meant risking injury and health) it seems that Romo has changed his game to protect himself. Now, that is not a bad thing sometimes. Coaches demand that their QB be smart about their health because the team's success in a salary-capped world is linked the QB's health. However, if your value is someone gained by your ability to keep plays alive and "defy the Xs and Os", then check downs and conservatism seems to be the enemy of that.

Playing QB is largely about allowing your weapons a chance to get open and buying them time. You cannot run deep routes if you are unloading the ball in 2 seconds. 2 seconds goes fast when Dez Bryant is using the 1st second to get past press coverage and really is limited in the routes he can run if the ball is being unloaded too quickly. This largely goes back to protection, but in the NFL, blitzes come constantly and a QB makes his money by performing under duress and making one guy miss on your own with a side step as you stand and deliver. At the same time, if you miscalculate one time, you miss 8 weeks with a broken collarbone or a separated shoulder so we are really only talking about a few moments a game where this should apply.

What does this mean? Sometimes it means checking down for a 2 yard play on 3rd and 10. Sometimes it means hitting the ground before anyone touches you.  

Sometimes it means giving up on a 4th down play and walking off the field instead of trying to improv...

This is a 4th and 10 in Chicago in December of 2013.  So, either convert it or the ball is turned over.  He aborted the play, which may be the smart thing to do for your body.  But, it is not something a younger Romo would have ever considered.   Heck, a year later, he spun to try to make several players miss - including JJ Watt - so we know this was not a permanent issue.  But, it was when my alarms were going off for the first time.  

As you know, he then recovered from that surgery in January of 2014.  He showed up in 2014 and perhaps put together his masterpiece.  He had a team that now had studs everywhere around him and played a season that was either his best or definitely in the mix.  

Health cooperated throughout and we saw these perfect moments from different editions of the Linehan Report all season long.  2014 was truly enjoyable for Romo and a sign that maybe his health was no longer a big issue.

One of the rare times where Tyron Smith gets beaten, by JJ Watt no less, and Romo does not hit the deck.  Instead, he employs the eyes in the back of his head and spins out blindly and hits Williams deep for an amazing touchdown. 

The very next week, he possibly throws out the finest moment of his career.  Game in Seattle is on the line and they need a 3rd and 20.  

That play never gets old.  Nor, does the question of whether he was throwing to Williams or Witten, but I will let that go.  

You will be hard pressed to find many QBs who can do that.   You will also be hard pressed to find a better play in his career.  This could very well be peak-Romo. 

There was also the night where Romo and Dez were humiliating the Eagles on Sunday Night Football in December.  

And, possibly the finest moment of his career on the biggest stage -- the 4th down throw to Dez Bryant in Green Bay.

The fact that this play will not count is a real shame.  To make that throw with everything on the line is something that will unfortunately not score on his ledger in many circles.  

Like I said, talking Romo is something I have done for a long time, so it was not a big surprise to see that this week has been more insanity from both sides.

He is such a polarizing figure that you almost have to distance from both extremes to appear sane. 

One side wants to tell you he was a nobody and will soon be forgotten.  They, of course, are silly.  

But, the other side wants to tell you that he never played with good teams (wrong), great players (wrong), and his only faults were that he was sabotaged by things out of his control (also wrong, but understandable).  

He was my kind of QB.  He was a gunslinger who could never really stop gun-slinging.  We were both raised on Brett Favre, so it is hopefully understandable to see that we both prefer that to the paint-by-numbers QBs -- even if they might have both been even better if they could have harnessed that a bit more.  

As the guy who was most pessimistic about his health, I realize my Romo leanings and reputation have taken a hit in the last few years as I was labeled as a guy "trying to run him off."  That was absurd given that my older reputation was one of a Romo-apologist, but I couldn't help but see what was happening to his body as the Cowboys continued to make cap decisions that indicated they thought he was just fine.  

I won't ever forget him.  In fact, this week, I was compelled to go back to watch one of my favorite Romo games -- in Washington in 2011.  He threw two magnificent "Romo passes" that were improved and off schedule to win the game. 

That beauty to Witten was magical.  

Then, on 3rd and 15 in overtime, he had to keep another play alive to win the game on a throw to Dez Bryant.  

In my opinion, that was peak Romo, too.  Wasted on another 8-8 season that went nowhere.  

Now, he is a broadcaster and those with the energy can argue about his place in history forever and ever, if they want.  I will be comfortable saying he was one of the most enjoyable QBs to cover that I can imagine.  

Just try to remember in the end -- Romo was a miracle.