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Showing posts with label demarcus Lawrence. Show all posts
Showing posts with label demarcus Lawrence. Show all posts
TheCowboysdefense is currently in uncharted waters. We don’t know how to process this.
As we head into Week 17 with a mighty challenge lurking — and obviously many bigger ones on the horizon — Dallas welcomes the new year with the unthinkable No. 1 ranking in the NFL in takeaways.
“Y’all know me, still the same O.G. but I been low-key” — Dr. Dre
To steal a lyric that plays in my head just about every time I see DeMarcus Lawrence doing what he does since his return, I suspect some of you have forgotten about Tank.
Lawrence is back and he is wrecking things. There was a play early in this game in New Jersey on Sunday that demonstrates what this all means. You see, Lawrence is one of the most productive defensive edges in the NFL in the past five years even though his own fan base often questions his quality. This, of course, is all the more remarkable when you consider that he has never really had much help with him.
We love revisionist history when it means good things have happened. When the pregame chatter of what Washington’s offense can do to you turns out to be a false alarm and by halftime you are wondering how the WFT ever strung together four straight wins — including a win over the Super Bowl champions — you will take it every time.
Make no mistake, last Thursday will not win awards for the finest defensive performance of 2021. You can’t give up 400-plus yards to a team of understudies and feel too good about yourself. Not when you give up nine yards a carry to a QB who is having a hard time completing a pass. Not when you cannot really find a running back or wide receiver who should stress your defense at all. At some point, you needed someone to step up and make a play.
One hundred and forty days since the truncated Dallas Cowboys training camp held its first full practice in Frisco, 37 days until Super Bowl 55 in Tampa (we still assume) and just two days until the noon start at MetLife Field in East Rutherford, NJ, against the New York Giants…. The stakes are high. Much higher than anyone could have imagined a few weeks ago, when the number of things that had to fall right appeared far-fetched.
When it rains, it pours. And, more specifically, a byproduct of playing against an inexperienced and often overwhelmed backup quarterback is that they tend to turn the ball over. The more of them you play, the more turnovers you find.
Here’s an undeniable fact: DeMarcus Lawrence currently owns the largest contract in Dallas Cowboys history. There will come a time when that will be surpassed, as we are certain Dak Prescott has already turned down a bigger deal altogether and Amari Cooper just signed one that came very close to Lawrence’s number. But for now, and for the last 18 months, D-Law’s five-year, $105 million deal running from 2019 through 2023 holds the title. The reality was not that difficult to understand. '
When we put the finishing touches on analysis for the 2017 Cowboys season -- and try to sort out just how well the defense played -- I think we should consider a few of the following numbers:
-- The Cowboys were 9-0 when they held opponents under 21 points.
-- Therefore, they were 0-7 when the opponent scored 21 or more points.
-- They were eighth in the NFL in fewest yards allowed. In a league where games saw the average team gain 334 yards per game, the Cowboys allowed 318.
-- Dallas was eighth against the run (per game), 11th against the pass (per game) and 10th in yards allowed per play. Flirting with top-10 status in all of these departments is pretty solid.
-- The Cowboys also were second in negative plays! That is a huge development that we will explore a bit later. Sixth in conceding explosive plays, second in opposing field position (not really a defensive stat, but it does really matter), and second in the entire league at winning on first downs.
-- They were 13th in the NFL in points allowed. League average was 21.7 allowed per game, and the Cowboys conceded 20.8. Right about at the average. They also finished with 21 takeaways, which was slightly off the league average of 22.
-- Dallas was average in sacks per pass attempt (16th) and first downs allowed (16th). Rushing yards per play, it ranked 18th.
-- Finally, the Cowboys were at the bottom of the league in interception rate (27th); third-down defense (29th); successful plays allowed (30th); against third and short (32nd); and second-down rushes (32nd).
That all adds up to about what you would expect.
Decent defense. Promising developments at some spots. Still lacking a few premium playmakers, but there are some pieces in place that suggest there is some good stuff happening below the waterline.
The Cowboys missed starts of significance because of the following: David Irving missed eight games (four to suspension/four to injury), Orlando Scandrick missed five, Sean Lee missed five, Anthony Hitchens missed four and Chidobe Awuzie missed about 10 (if we consider him a starter, which I think we should). Add in one absence for Jeff Heath, and this cumulative total of 33 missed starts (out of a possible 176 for defensive starters) may not sound like anything extraordinary, but in a hard-capped league where depth is rare, 81 percent attendance is not considered excellent. For instance, the Minnesota Vikings have the best defense in the industry -- but also the healthiest. They had 98 percent attendance from their 11 starters this season, which certainly demonstrates some luck that their offense did not receive.
But for the Cowboys, it seems rather clear. When you don't have blue-chippers all over your defense, you need those you do have to stay on the field. A dependence on Lee was likely the difference between making and missing the playoffs this year, from a defensive standpoint. And, without question, losing a destroyer like Irving for all of September and all of December pretty much sunk their ship.
WEEKLY DATA BOX - AT PHILADELPHIA
I really don't want to spend too much time on the defensive play from Sunday. The Eagles had no quarterback play at all and did not seem too concerned about anything other than getting the game over with. The Cowboys certainly padded their stats for the year and left feeling great with a shutout.
They ended the year with seven different performances in which the opposition did not even pierce the 300-yard mark, which is some very impressive work, to be fair.
Again, this shows you how no linebacker finished in the top seven in snaps. That is a real issue because the defensive line is not trying to get high snaps, but rather a deep rotation. We are used to defensive backs dominating snap counts, but not this much. And Irving played significantly fewer snaps than Taco Charlton and Benson Mayowa.
BLITZ RATE BY WEEK
Just when you thought the Cowboys hardly blitzed, they took it down even further and further this season -- 17 percent is a new low, even for a team that already never blitzed. In a league where the average sits at about 30 percent, blitzing is just not something Rod Marinelli is interested in doing.
SPLASH PLAYS - WEEK 17
Not sure we have ever seen this, but the drop from DeMarcus Lawrence to the rest of the team was absurd in 2017. It didn't help that the next two players -- Irving and Lee -- each missed significant time. It also may demonstrate that the Cowboys have a lot of players on defense, but not a lot of playmakers. So when you are missing your two difference-makers, the defense becomes ordinary very, very quickly.
The story of the 2017 Cowboys defense is this: It had three playmakers and two missed significant time.
Therefore, you need to find more playmakers for this defense to have a chance to improve.
By the way, your only consistent playmaker who had consistent attendance in 2017 is now out of contract.
SPLASH PLAYS - SEASON TOTALS
We have known this for weeks, but here are your annual splash play champions since 2011, when I started tracking this number. We wondered if we would see our first 40-splash season, but Lawrence fell just short, tying DeMarcus Ware's 2011 season. But, look, he did it in 209 fewer snaps! That is clearly our tiebreaker, so, in the history of the splash play index, we have a new top season ever.
I don't believe there is any chance Lawrence goes anywhere this offseason. He will either get a long extension or get franchised. We should not rule out either because the Cowboys certainly could talk themselves into a short-term solution, but I would just get that four-year, $60 million offer out there and get it over with.
Lawrence is very good and Irving is right there with him. It is up to them to put their suspensions behind them and give this team a full 16 games next year and beyond, because those two, along with some nice pieces -- Charlton for one -- should have the defensive line in a spot where it just needs a run-stopper in the middle to bring it all together.
The D-line was one of the league leaders in negative plays. Lots of sacks and tackles for loss all season long. Really great stuff up front, but it was surrounded by too many situations when the opponent was able to recover and move the chains by kicking the Cowboys' rear on third downs.
The wild card remains Randy Gregory, but I will not discuss that at this time because there is so much unknown.
At linebacker, you have Hitchens without a deal and Lee in a familiar spot for him: one of the best in the sport for 10 games a year. It is a weird proposition and his is an odd career to evaluate. But, wow, does he make a difference when he is on the field.
And then you have the wild card of the linebacking corps, Jaylon Smith. He improved as the season went on and played a lot of snaps. It is reasonable to think his 2018 will be that much better, but if ever there was a wild projection, it would be that.
Then, in the defensive backfield, you have optimism stirred by Awuzie's final month and Jourdan Lewis' season. I have always rated Awuzie higher, but both are quite capable. Byron Jones is still a piece, albeit with a lower ceiling than we hoped for, it appears. Scandrick's future is in question, as his body has been through plenty and he is getting up there in age. They can still use a playmaker back there if the draft smiles down on them. Perhaps getting an "ace" back there (your own Earl Thomas-type) could make the whole rotation make sense.
You have pieces on defense. You need more. It is a league of extraordinary talent beating ordinary talent every week. The Cowboys simply need a little more extraordinary to bring this side of the ball together.
If you are wondering, the answer is Nov. 11, 1966.
Fifty-one years ago and some change is how long it had been since the Dallas Cowboys managed to lose a game to an opponent that produced as little offense as the Seahawks did Sunday, when they took a vital game with high stakes after generating just 136 yards of total offense.
I was wrong in assuming it had never happened before in Cowboys history. Just not in my lifetime. But evidently, it happened twice in the 1960s. And the most recent time -- that day 51 years ago -- was a day in which the Eagles beat the Cowboys 24-23 and generated all of their points off three special teams plays. Two Timmy Brown kickoff returns and Aaron Martin's punt return accounted for all three of the Eagles' touchdowns and overcame the fact that the Eagles had 80 total yards of offense as they took down Don Meredith and the Cowboys.
But if you are asking if it had ever happened in a Dallas Cowboys home game, the answer is no. Before Sunday, the Cowboys had never lost a game in which their defense had allowed so few as 136 yards. For that previous record, you had to go all the way back to 1961, when the St. Louis Cardinals took the win in the Cotton Bowl against your Cowboys with 193 yards of offense, two Bill Stacy interception returns for touchdowns and the aid of five Cowboys turnovers from Eddie LeBaron and friends.
That is how rare Sunday's result was.
The Cowboys defense allowed very little. Here is a look at what should be a victorious defensive drive chart:
As you can see, the Seahawks did put together two successful drives -- both started by Cowboys turnovers -- that were taken into the end zone. Add to that a third touchdown on the Dak Prescott pick-six, and you see how the Seahawks won something rather uncommon: a game in which their offense did not move the ball all day long. But in games where they are minus-3 in the turnover battle, the Cowboys lose almost every time (as would everyone else). The Cowboys are now 11-113 in games all-time when they take a minus-3 in the turnover battle. Can't do that and survive.
... Which leads us to the actual issues of Sunday for the defense. If you are going to choose between giving up yardage or taking the ball away, we certainly know the correlation stats. Takeaways are how a team wins football games. Yardage is generally just yardage. And while we properly place most of the blame on the offense for the way the season has deteriorated, we should take careful note of this defense not generating any takeaways for the fifth time this season. That doesn't lead the league -- Miami has actually had seven games with no takeaways -- but it has led to losses. As a league, regardless of any other factor (quality of the opponent, site of the game, etc.), teams win just 26 percent of the games in which they generate zero takeaways. The Cowboys, now 1-4 in those games (they beat Arizona), are at 20 percent.
WEEKLY DATA BOX
It certainly takes the analysis out of an analysis piece to surmise that you reached just about every objective you would like in a game like this, but people, let's be reasonable here. No team is supposed to lose a game in which the defense allowed 2.5 yards per play. That is just insane. The Seahawks are a very poor offensive team -- no doubt about it -- but this is the NFL, and they have Russell Wilson. You limited them to one drive of substance, one play of 20 yards and sacked Wilson three times. And you still lost.
Defensive reasons for losing? Well, the red-zone defense allowed two touchdowns in two opportunities and you never got a takeaway. Otherwise, there isn't too much to complain about.
RUSSELL WILSON THROW CHART
You would be hard-pressed to play Wilson much better than this. He is a dangerous playmaker who has speedy weapons that can cause issues, for sure. And the Cowboys limited him almost totally. Almost. He will take shots down the field, but there was almost nothing in this game.
EXPLOSIVES ALLOWED
SPLASH PLAYS - VS. SEATTLE
SPLASH PLAYS - SEASON TOTALS
Again, it was the Cowboys defense in a bit of a nutshell. It played well. It played fine. But it didn't generate a play to win the game and, by anyone's measure, was the second-best defense on the field Sunday. It plays hard, it gets things accomplished, it could be worse ... But in the end, it is a defensive unit that is middle-of-the-road. That worked well when the offense was top five. But middle-of-the-road offense and middle-of-the-road defense means a season around 8-8.
And here we are.
Let's check a few videos:
I think Taco Charlton can feel good about the finish to his rookie season. More and more as the year has gone along, he has started to show up a bit more and there are signs that he has a future. I know opinions are all in ink and I definitely had views on draft weekend about the Cowboys taking him, but since he has been here, I have no real issues with his attitude or tools to develop. I think in Year 3, he has a chance to be pretty nice. This shows his size and his power. He closes Wilson down on a four-man pressure that brings a linebacker and drops Maliek Collins into a spy role. Charlton now has three sacks, and we can be optimistic that he can make a run at 6-8 next season.
Here is the "Deacon" package on third down -- three rushers and one linebacker spy who delays his rush. On this, Benson Mayowa gets left tackle Duane Brown nicely. That requires some real strength to grasp on and bring him down in that frenzy, and he made it look easy. Mayowa has just this one sack after six last season, but I still really like his flashes that have drawn multiple holding penalties and caused other plays despite not getting the sacks.
Here is the fantastic sack by DeMarcus Lawrence on Sunday that demonstrates he was not an early-season fluke. He now has 14.5 sacks on the season (admittedly, September and October were his best work), which likely says he has received much more attention as the season has gone along and that it would have been nice to have had David Irving play more this season. Regardless, he is just a half-sack behind the league lead and I bet a sack title would cap off his fine pre-free agency season.
I don't know what your first reaction was when Lawrence ran down Wilson, but this was mine:
Now, that is an obvious reference to some and a confusing tweet to others. So, let's let everyone in on the fun. Here is the Bob Griese sack by Bob Lilly in Super Bowl VI (the very rare Bob-on-Bob sack):
They still haven't posted the All-22 from Super Bowl VI, but it does show you that even with all of this time passing, quarterbacks running backward to try to keep a play alive often goes very poorly.
Now, those two red-zone touchdowns were a big story, so let's view them.
This is Jimmy Graham. He is 6-foot-7, 265 pounds. Jourdan Lewis will try to cover him. He is 5-10, 188. How did you think this was going to go? On the goal line, they are trying pre-snap motion to see if they can get this matchup or if Byron Jones will follow him (which causes its own issues and may not fare considerably better). This is their Dez Bryant fade, but it is even more of a sure thing. If you have a big target on a tiny defender, this is a pretty easy decision for your quarterback to make.
Look at the Cowboys trying to sort through this after the motion. Wilson is thinking, "Are they serious? They are leaving their 5-10 corner out there against him?"
Second and goal from the 6-yard line. This is where you really needed to force a field goal if possible. You can see the Cowboys are going to double Graham here and the Seahawks are going to isolate a rub route to where they find individual coverage. Red-zone defense is really difficult if they have a Graham, because either you double him or you don't. And either decision is going to be wrong because the Seahawks have seen it all. This time, they use Doug Baldwin to the corner and Chidobe Awuzie gets caught sitting on the slant (it appears). Touchdown.
Next week, we finish up 2017. For now, let's put this Seattle game to bed and turn the page.
Cowboys safety Jeff Heath (38) breaks up a pass intended for Oakland Raiders wide receiver Michael Crabtree (15) in the end zone during the final minute of the Cowboys-Raiders game at Oakland-Alameda County Stadium in Oakland, Calif., on Sunday, Dec. 17, 2017. (Louis DeLuca/The Dallas Morning News)
The Marinelli Report
Sunday night may possibly have nothing to do with the final fate of the 2017 Dallas Cowboys. That doesn't mean it wasn't wildly entertaining or memorable from a pure drama standpoint.
These games are played for three-plus hours between two teams that don't want to give in to each other. They are often not separated by more than one play here or there. That is the sport and that is why we love it so much. For all of the off-field drama and stories that annoy us, plus the vague manner in which the league draws its on-field rules, it is still the best soap opera any writer could ever conceive. It is two teams of amazing athletes destroying their bodies in the pursuit of a win.
Even if that win does not stand the test of time.
The Cowboys survived Sunday night. They survived because they made one more play. Or maybe just the one play that matters. Or maybe the opponent just made the vital mistake at the wrong moment and the Cowboys were the beneficiaries of that gift.
Choose your own description.
Today, I wish to go back to that final drive and just look at each of the nine plays from a defensive standpoint to see how the Cowboys did survive and notch their third win in a row. They again held their opponent under 300 yards of offense (fifth time this year) but also failed to get a takeaway (fifth time) or sack (fourth time).
In fact, what was once a very promising season for sacks -- they were third in the NFL after eight games with 27, trailing only Jacksonville and Carolina -- has now disintegrated. Since the Kansas City game, the Cowboys have played six games and registered five sacks, which, as you may imagine, ranks 32nd in the NFL. During that same span of time, Tennessee has 27 sacks and the Rams have 22.
Their team total of 32 sacks still ranks 16th in the league, but the idea that the Cowboys were a sure bet to reach 40 for the first time in years is just a far-off fantasy again. They would do well to just get to last year's total of 36 in the last two games.
WEEKLY DATA BOX - AT OAKLAND
Several of the numbers above will please you. They did a nice job of limiting big plays, making sure Oakland got nothing easily and even fighting hard against the battering ram that is Marshawn Lynch. They failed on third downs many times and, with no sacks or takeaways (even those that hit them in the chest), flirted with losing a game in which the defense played pretty well.
Oakland obviously is depleted at the skill positions and, aside from Michael Crabtree, had very little. He isn't a top-tier receiver, but he has some very Dez Bryant-like attributes with his ability to win with strength on third downs and in the red zone. But beyond that, the Raiders found almost nothing.
DEREK CARR THROW CHART
Looking above, you can see the secondary was very strong. Derek Carr had almost nothing down the field and that would suggest the pass rush was effective, despite no sacks. You want it to be more effective, mind you, but Carr certainly didn't appear to have all day to throw from the pocket.
SEAN LEE - W.O.W.Y.
Sean Lee "With Or Without You" stats continue to impress. We know he is good and we know the Cowboys desperately rely on him (probably way too much), but we are going to have a full season of very impressive defensive days when he plays, and not so much when he doesn't. That, of course, begs the question of how this season would be different if he had perfect attendance, but I suppose every team has a sob story to tell -- and nobody wants to hear them.
SNAP COUNTS
SPLASH PLAYS - AT OAKLAND
I hate to make splash plays subjective -- and I don't believe I did, technically -- but there are two that are not as cut and dried as others. Chidobe Awuzie's third-down stop was a driving tackle that left Crabtree a yard short of the sticks on a third-and-8. Normally, positive yardage is not allowed, but if you get the team off the field with a tackle, I make a third-down stop a splash if deemed a strong personal effort. And the same goes for Jeff Heath on the final play. That was a five-yard gain by Carr and Heath did not technically cause the fumble. But, if you watched it, I assume we all agree it was an extraordinary effort by Heath to save the day.
SEASON TOTALS FOR SPLASH PLAYS
OK, let's look at that final drive -- from the first play to the last.
First and 10 at the Oakland 11, 1:38 to go. Carr quickly unloads to his left to Seth Roberts in the flat, in front of Anthony Brown. Brown is right there and bats the ball away. Good, aggressive break on the ball that prevents a short Oakland gain.
Second and 10 at the Oakland 11, 1:34 to go. Carr and Roberts go again, this time from the opposite slot, and Brown releases Roberts to the safeties. Roberts settles before he gets into Heath's area and is able to pick up 19 in a small window, qualifying as the longest pass play of the game that connected. You can see that Xavier Woods is more conservative than Heath because he has to account for the sideline man to his left running vertically. Heath is ready to pop Roberts if he continues, but he wisely sits down in the soft spot. First down.
First and 10 at the Oakland 30, 1:16 to go. Now Carr tries the right sideline to Crabtree. Awuzie does what he always does, and that is aggressively go up and make a play on the ball. He is so good right now and his confidence is only making him better. It helps to know that Crabtree has speed limitations, but Awuzie does not allow for any separation and doesn't want to give up any completions, either. A really nice player.
Second and 10 at the Oakland 30, 1:10 to go. Here is Crabtree's best move. In the middle against Lee, Crabtree simply pushes him to create space. That is some tight end strength there, but Carr is off with the timing and accuracy of the throw. Lee is looking for a flag, which seems to be a reasonable request. Incomplete.
Third and 10 at the Oakland 30, 1:05 to go. Carr wants Roberts again. Brown knows this and undercuts the route. The ball hits Brown in the chest. It may not be a pick-six, but even if it is not, it still ends the game then and there. Instead, as Brown has shown against the Rams and Eagles, opportunity falls to the ground. Nice play for sure, but these are game-changing moments that you can't let get away.
As you can see, Carr did not play well, but he also doesn't have the most dynamic options ever. And if the Cowboys are just going to rush four, that means they have a seven-man zone to make sure there are small windows. The pocket is collapsing and he has to get rid of it. Also, the Cowboys don't leave many escape routes.
Fourth and 10 at the Oakland 30, 1:01 to go. Huge moment, and the Cowboys still can't get home. They try the tackle-end stunt and DeMarcus Lawrence is closing fast, but almost like Aaron Rodgers last January, Carr steps to his left and is able to launch a pass 55 yards down the field to Crabtree. Heath sees an issue up at the 50 and that leaves Jourdan Lewis by himself with Crabtree. The ball is underthrown, Crabtree knows how to draw the flag and Lewis looks like he is a little panicked. Flag.
The end-zone view. Tyrone Crawford falling gives Carr the escape path, and then you see Lewis is the victim of the underthrown ball. Pass interference looks like the easy call and the Raiders get their fourth-down miracle.
First and 10 at the Dallas 15, 51 seconds to go. Here is a great pass rush off the edge by Taco Charlton and he almost gets home. Carr sees Cordarrelle Patterson on the sideline and takes the quick 7 there before Awuzie pushes him out of bounds.
Second and 3 at the Dallas 8, 44 seconds to go. This is a close call that looks like improvisation from Crabtree or a very rough-looking double move. Either way, he has Anthony Hitchens here and it is up to Heath to dive in and save the day. This is a tremendous job by Heath because he has to watch two threats and, if he is not on his toes, this might be the game-winner.
Heck of a play by Heath against a guy who doesn't lose in the red zone very often.
Third and 3 at the Dallas 8, 39 seconds to go. This is the play. Oakland has a timeout. The Raiders really just need three yards and the Cowboys are in big trouble. But, Dallas could make a stop and force overtime at least. Lawrence is over the left tackle and this is another "almost sack" for No. 90. He has to get Carr to the ground here, but Carr is pretty slippery. Once he does slip away, Carr seems to have a chance to get to the pylon. Look at Heath and all the things he has to consider before realizing that Carr is taking off. Awuzie has to stay with Jared Cook, or Carr will pass it to him. Then Cook looks like he is trying to impede Heath.
Again, I have no idea why Carr didn't just take his first down and get out of bounds. I think it is a horrible mistake by the quarterback to put the game on a reach for the pylon. He almost threw a pick a few plays ago, and then he does this. If I am a Raiders fan, I definitely feel like my $125 million quarterback let the team down on this final drive.
But from a Dallas standpoint, perhaps this drive gives you a better appreciation for Heath and this secondary. Rod Marinelli didn't blitz once and if Carr gets in, I likely would wish to discuss that with Rod. But they survived. It was quite a finish, and the Oakland quarterback gave the Cowboys a lifeline when it looked like they were in big trouble.
