Decoding Garrett '10 - Week 1

http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/09/bob-sturm-decoding-cowboys-off.html



For those of you new to this - and that would be most of the DMN readers - this is a project to attempt to understand what the Cowboys offensive brain-trust designed and attempted to perform against the opponent on a week-to-week basis. We look at the data, piece by piece until we can figure out what they were trying to do - and more importantly, how well it worked.

At first glance, the Cowboys had what would be termed a normal offensive game. 377 yards in the game is a slightly below-average production number for Dallas (399 per game in '09), but it would put the team on pace for another 6,000 yard season. 6 teams in the NFL had 6,000 yards in 2009: New Orleans, Dallas, New England, Houston, Minnesota, and Green Bay. The Average NFL team had 335 yards per game in 2009, and the average playoff team rolled out 363 yards per game.

However, yards per play was way down (6.26 in '09) with only 5.31 yards per play. 1 yard under a team's average on every play is significant.

And then the biggest number of all that jumps off the page is 7 points. Bill Parcells would tell the media in his occasionally informative press conference mode that a team needs to score 7 points for every 100 yards of offense for it to feel it had an efficient day. This assumes normal average starting field position and normal "hidden yardage" production from special teams, but when you are close to 400 yards, you cannot be sitting on 7 points. Nowhere near enough bang for your buck.

Against the Redskins, the Cowboys were without 2 starting offensive linemen. It was clear that all week, Jason Garrett planned to protect them, because he knew with a normal Cowboys game-plan, it might be difficult to protect them from being exposed to a few very capable pass rushers.

Every week, coaches sit in a film room and evaluate what they have and what their opponent has. This game plan often dictates just about everything you see in the first half of a game. So, from a play-calling stand point, you can see that the Cowboys did not have a whole lot of early faith in anything but the extremely quick, short passing game. Like we expected, Tony Romo was going to have to get the ball and get it out to the perimeter quickly. If it worked, then the Redskins would have to respect the flanks - which, of course, would diminish the amount of players that they could send on blitzes.

Here is what they did on 1st Down throughout the game: 34 1st Down Plays: 24 Pass/10 Run

Run-Pass	22-49
1st Down Run-Pass	10-24
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.26
2nd Down Run-Pass	8-15
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	9.23
3rd Down Run-Pass	4-9
3rd Down Conversions	5-13, 38%

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I find those totals a bit misleading, because this was not a traditional "sling it around" game plan, but rather, a commitment to quick 3-step drop passing plays that would not ask his line to hold up for more than a few quick seconds. Of course, once the game develops, and you must roll the dice because of the scoreboard and the situation, then you must put Romo back in his normal spot and ask him to hang in there under pressure and allow his men to get down field. This is why you don't see Alex Barron, in particular, exposed until nearly half-time. But, in the 2nd half, the Cowboys had to forget the game-plan and get points, because they were down 10. And that played right into the Redskins defensive schemes. Now, you understand the full impact of that play right before the half.

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	3	-1	2-(-1)	1-0
12	15	69	5-32	10-37
21	7	48	3-12	4-36
22	11	70	8-39	3-31
31	1	6	1-6	0-0
WC22	1	4	1-4	0-0
S01	6	36	0-0	6-36
S11	24	113	2-11	22-102
S12	3	32	0-0	3-32
Totals	71	377	22-103	49-274

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Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	2	-1	2-(-1)	0-0
S01	1	13	0-0	1-13
S11	11	71	2-11	9-60
Totals	14	83	4-10	10-73

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For a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groups, click here.

I think we see from the above totals that the 2010 Cowboys will be doing plenty of things that utilize the 3WR and 4WR sets that Dez Bryant should allow. 11 personnel is dangerous for any opponent to defend, with Austin, Bryant, Williams, Witten, and a RB, and it forces the opponent to generally go with a nickel defense which should make running more effective. We shall see about that when Kosier and Colombo get back, but for now, we can see that S11 was not nearly productive enough in the passing game with only 4.63 yards per pass. When you are spreading out your defense and throwing out of shotgun, a team must roll up 6 or 7 yards per throw, and the Cowboys just couldn't get on the same page. Again, a lot of this is because they did not have time. But, we already know that.

Now, my favorite part of Decoding Garrett; Looking at particular plays on video and talking through them. We pick 5-6 plays from each week (some good, some bad) and see what we can see:

Video Breakdowns:

Thanks, Brian at DC Fanatic.com .

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The Play:3Q - Play #40 - S12 - 2/5/22 - Romo beats blitz to Austin for 29



What Happened:This one is beautiful and demonstrates the skill level of the QB. S12, with Bennett lined up on the left sideline, opposite 3 weapons on the right. Witten in tight, Austin in the slot, and Dez up top. At the snap, 30 - Landry blitzes off RT, and Drew Bledsoe would have been toast. But, Romo steps up in the pocket and stays alive to find Austin running across. The Redskins gamble that the blitz will get there, but if it doesn't Austin will be running with Line Backers. 22 - Rogers leaves Bennett and chases Austin down on the play. This is one of two plays where we wonder if a slightly better throw would have resulted in a 78 yard Touchdown rather than a 29 yard gain. I hate to ask the world of Tony, but on this play and the next one, Miles must stop and catch the pass behind him and this allows the defenders to catch him. Another thing to point out is that the Cowboys line Witten up next to Barron - which should give a presnap read of pass protection to the defense, but that is a cat-and-mouse game where if they guess right (and they did) then Romo has a guy who is unaccounted for, because Barron can't worry about Landry when he is trying to block the linebacker.

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The Play:4Q - Play #69 - S11 - 4/10/43 - Romo to Austin for big +31



What Happened: This may be an example of the Redskins trying to learn a new scheme. They have a very exotic blitz package here on a play that can win the game for them if they can hold up one more time. They want the Cowboys to think they are rushing 3 and dropping 8, but in reality they are rushing 5. But the extra 2, #52 McIntosh and #23 Hall are coming on a delay blitz. Then, everyone behind those 5 must find their man quickly, but confusion allows Miles Austin of all people to run free as #22 Rogers and #31 Buchanon both seem to think they are on Roy Williams on the left flank. The key here is the great recognition of Romo to find the man running free on a play they must convert or the game is over. It takes a busted coverage of the Redskins to make this happen, but there is nothing wrong with that. But, this is a poor throw by Romo (behind him) or it is a likely Touchdown. Romo would want this throw again for sure.

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The Play:2Q - Play #19 - 11 3/1/42 - Barber left for 3




What Happened: I wanted to look at these next 2 plays for a reason. First, 11 personnel, but short yardage running is interesting. Usually, on 3rd and short, the Cowboys run out multiple TEs and get the ground and pound. THe problem with that is that is the Redskins would counter with 8-man fronts on 3rd and short. So, Garrett tries to spread you out with a formation that you better respect for the pass. A triple bunch to the right, but all coverage concerns in "11". Witten comes in motion to balance things out to the left. Then, Barber runs out of this posture. This first time, it works well as Doug Free seems to block the entire left flank on his own, once Witten seals off his man (Orakpo) with a down block in front of Free. 68 - Free looks very capable in space, and it is a nice conversion by the Cowboys.

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The Play: 4Q - Play #60 - 11 - 3/2/41 - Choice left blown up badly



What Happened: The play above worked well, so later they called it again. It certainly did not work here. People always wonder why the Cowboys don't keep running stuff until the opponent stops it. Well, here we give the Redskins credit for recognizing the exact same idea and blowing it up with sheer numbers. Orakpo sees Witten looking for the seal and decides that Witten is not blocking him. This knocks Free way back in the backfield, and Free cannot do what he did last time. When you look at the same play with 2 different outcomes, you see why coaching football must be so intoxicating. It really is a chess game and each team keeps figuring out what the other is trying to do and they take it away. A pass back to the right here would have caught the Redskins with their pants down as both safeties were sitting a run like Barber had in the 2Q. Witten is a fine blocker, but Orakpo has proven to us he is no joke. So very strong.

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The Play: 3Q - Play #47 - 22 - 2/4/16 - Barber power right +12



What Happened: This is another play that they ran several times on Sunday Night. "22" personnel, with Bennett and Witten to the right, and a FB in front of the TB. This "22" personnel is something the Cowboys do very, very well. The reason is simple - Witten and Bennett scare teams over the top. I find the fact that Bennett is still a seam concern somewhat confusing, given that he has played 33 games in the NFL and has yet to really make anyone pay for not treating him as a simple blocking TE with the occasional 8 yard curl reception, but it is clear they still fear him for some reason. Anyway, this play has been run dozens of times in the last year. Bennett in motion from the sideline to the LDE. He crashes down here, and then Witten and Anderson grab the LB help to that side. This leaves a 1-on-1 situation between Barber and the DB. 12 easy yards on one of the Cowboys favorite plays. Anytime a team sees "22" personnel come on the field, they are looking for this play. Funny thing about it? They still do not stop it very well. And because of that, the easy extension of this is to find Austin on the weakside with man-to-man after the safeties cheat to it.


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The Play:3Q - Play #46 - 1/10/O22 - 31 - 3RB Option Right



What Happened: A very rare "31" personnel package, with all 3 RBs out on the field at the same time. The more I watch this replay, the more I am convinced that if Choice pitches it to Felix there is a Touchdown here. MB3 looks like he will get the last man on the flank on the block. Choice keeps it and picks up a nice gain on 1st down (6 yards), but in film study, I think they will see something bigger here. This would also seem to be an imposing idea out of the Wildcat, so we will keep an eye on that. At the start of the play, Austin and Felix are lined up wide giving the Redskins a normal formation read. Then when Felix goes in motion to the backfield, I would imagine the Redskins are all a bit concerned about what was just sprung on them. If nothing else, this is the kind of play that will keep the Chicago Bears coaching staff busy for an hour this week about they can keep enough numbers on the flank to deal with 3 RB running lanes, without leaving the weak-side wide open for a pass to Miles.



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The Play: 4Q - Play #72 - S11 - 3/10/13 - last play of game



What Happened:And now, the play that made us all crazy. Here is what I wrote yesterday, so let's see if it makes sense with the video: It is the last chance to save this game. The Cowboys just called their final timeout to consider what their best option could be. This throw must go into the end-zone, which, of course, means that the protection scheme must provide Romo and the receivers (Miles Austin, Roy Williams, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant) a chance to get through their routes and complete the pass. The Redskins, who have been blitzing quite constantly in this final drive, decide to drop 8 into coverage and only rush 3. Free seems to have Carter driven past the pocket. Gurode and Holland double team Vonnie Holiday and have him blocked. Leonard Davis is left with nobody in front of him when Alexander drops into coverage. And, that leaves Orakpo vs Barron yet again. Earlier in the Quarter, on the Cowboys 8th drive, Barron nullified a 12 yard pass to Witten on 3rd and 11 with his holding penalty on Orakpo. It is clear that Orakpo's move to the outside shoulder of Barron is something the Cowboys back-up tackle has no answer to. This has been obvious to those of us at home, so I would like to think that Garrett and his crew are on top of the situation. And yet, at the snap, despite having Barber lined up right behind Barron as if he is going to chip Orakpo at the snap, Barber cuts to the opposite side of Barron (his inside shoulder) and pops out on a useless pass pattern. I say "useless" because Romo is not going to pass it to Barber at the 10 yard line with time expired. Did Barber not chip when he was supposed to? Did Garrett not instruct him to do so with this protection scheme? Both seem unthinkable, but one must be true. Because even though the Redskins just rushed 3 men, Barron had no chance against Orakpo's move to the outside, and Barron puts him in a illegal clothes-line move almost immediately. After watch the replay several dozen times, I am convinced a simple chip from Barber and the Cowboys win this game. But, what I think doesn't matter. What actually happened is that Romo ran for his life and found an opening enough to hit a wide-open Roy Williams in the endzone after he ran a long crossing route on the play. For a split second it appeared to be a magical Dallas moment, until we saw the referee made the call that he had no choice but to make.

I would just add this: After further review, it appears that Barber carried out his assignment. He saw no need to help because RT and RG should be able to handle 1 LB. The problem is that Barron must set up to not be beaten to the outside. If he cheats to the outside and Orakpo shoots inside, then Davis is there to help (and so is Barber). But, Barron was beaten to the outside. I think this must be a scheme issue where they depended on Barron and now spend all week wondering why they were silly enough to depend on Barron. Lesson learned.

We will look at Targets and Sacks in a post coming very soon.

The Morning After: Washington 13, Dallas 7

http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/09/bob-sturm-no-reason-to-call-pl.html


The Cowboys and Redskins did battle in Landover, Maryland last night for over 3 hours. During that time, there were 130 offensive plays run between the two teams. Loads and loads of remarkable moments involving dozens of different players. But, in the end, as the game of football often does, most everything seems to cancel each-other out and the outcome of the contest came down to two moments in time. Those catastrophic moments, assuming you were counting on a Dallas victory, will haunt Cowboys' fans for a length of time somewhere between 6 days and decades.

Let's examine each before we fill in the gaps with the other 128 snaps:

1) - :04 left in 2nd Quarter; 1st and 20 from the Dallas 36 yard-line: In a half where Jason Garrett exercised extreme caution with his play-calling so as not to expose his less-than-stellar offensive line, for some reason he threw caution to the wind on this snap that shall live in infamy. The first thing you have to know is that you are down 3 points to a team that doesn't appear capable of scoring much. The next thing you need to know is that you are 64 yards from a Touchdown with only 4 seconds to play. Without a timeout, there is simply no possibility of a pass shorter than 64 yards getting you a even a Field Goal opportunity, as a pass play of 30 yards to the edge of FG range would take all 4 seconds. Given all of these scenarios, and given the fact that the reason you are in 1st and 20 is that Alex Barron has taken the first of his 3 holding penalties on the play right before this moment, this appears to be a play with nearly zero upside. I must include the word "nearly" in that previous statement because "nearly" impossible is how I would have rated the possibility of what actually happened. But it did. In the blink of an eye, the game went from being quite manageable to ridiculous. There was no way Tony Romo could throw a "Hail Mary" because it is barely 2 seconds into the play by the time that Lorenzo Alexander sprints around Left Tackle Doug Free, flushing Romo out of the pocket and toward the line of scrimmage. Over at Right Tackle, Andre Carter is chipped by Tashard Choice to give Alex Barron a chance to stay in front of him. Brian Orakpo is working past Leonard Davis on an inside stunt with Carter and actually flies past Romo in the air as Romo stepped up for a throwing window. By this point in the play, the alarms in Romo's head are going crazy as he is officially running for his life. He knows the play is dead and he pitches the ball to Tashard Choice who has nobody within 5 yards of him. By the time Choice receives the ball, the 4 seconds are already off the clock and everyone expects Choice to be tackled and the teams to head into the locker-room for their intermission. But, then the moment that cannot happen - does. Choice decides to attempt to run over DeAngelo Hall, with Carter and Alexander on the scene for a gang tackle at the 37 yard line. Hall strips the ball from Choice, and the ball rolls right back to him at the 31. From here, Hall has a 3 yard head start on Leonard Davis to the endzone, which is a race he wins by 20 yards. Fed-Ex Field goes bananas and the Cowboys are left pondering the idiocy that they just performed. There is no reason to call the play. There is no excuse for fumbling that ball. Unacceptable on every single level, and the kind of play that gets you beat on the road most times.

2) :03 left in the 4th Quarter; 3rd and 10 from the Washington 13: It is the last chance to save this game. The Cowboys just called their final timeout to consider what their best option could be. This throw must go into the end-zone, which, of course, means that the protection scheme must provide Romo and the receivers (Miles Austin, Roy Williams, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant) a chance to get through their routes and complete the pass. The Redskins, who have been blitzing quite constantly in this final drive, decide to drop 8 into coverage and only rush 3. Free seems to have Carter driven past the pocket. Gurode and Holland double team Vonnie Holiday and have him blocked. Leonard Davis is left with nobody in front of him when Alexander drops into coverage. And, that leaves Orakpo vs Barron yet again. Earlier in the Quarter, on the Cowboys 8th drive, Barron nullified a 12 yard pass to Witten on 3rd and 11 with his holding penalty on Orakpo. It is clear that Orakpo's move to the outside shoulder of Barron is something the Cowboys back-up tackle has no answer to. This has been obvious to those of us at home, so I would like to think that Garrett and his crew are on top of the situation. And yet, at the snap, despite having Barber lined up right behind Barron as if he is going to chip Orakpo at the snap, Barber cuts to the opposite side of Barron (his inside shoulder) and pops out on a useless pass pattern. I say "useless" because Romo is not going to pass it to Barber at the 10 yard line with time expired. Did Barber not chip when he was supposed to? Did Garrett not instruct him to do so with this protection scheme? Both seem unthinkable, but one must be true. Because even though the Redskins just rushed 3 men, Barron had no chance against Orakpo's move to the outside, and Barron puts him in a illegal clothes-line move almost immediately. After watch the replay several dozen times, I am convinced a simple chip from Barber and the Cowboys win this game. But, what I think doesn't matter. What actually happened is that Romo ran for his life and found an opening enough to hit a wide-open Roy Williams in the endzone after he ran a long crossing route on the play. For a split second it appeared to be a magical Dallas moment, until we saw the referee made the call that he had no choice but to make.

And those two plays are what put the Cowboys to the sword at the hands of their hated foes. Irony drips everywhere on this one, because the Cowboys spent the entire night trying to avoid Alex Barron costing them huge moments, only to shockingly allow him to stand on an island against a man he demonstrated he couldn't block. 130 plays, and if a running back assists a right tackle on play #130, your night goes from defeat to victory. Details, details, details...

We must remember that while it is costly, last night represents exactly 6.25% of the season. 93.75% of the season is ahead, so let's all keep our heads here. Also, many of us expect that most years you can book a 3-3 mark inside your division because nights like these happen. But, wow.

More Random Observations:

* As we said on Friday's Game Plan, the Cowboys are notorious for having extremely poor starting field position. They ranked 30th in the NFL in 2009 for the place where Romo and the offense get to start each drive, which averaged out to their own 27 yard line. Only Oakland and Tennessee were set up in a worse position. This is a product of special teams not being very special and the defense never taking the ball away from the opponent. Well, 10 drives on Sunday night, and the average starting field position of those 10 drives? That's right, their own 27 yard line.

* I certainly am no medical expert. But, I do watch an awful lot of football. And by my count, that is the 3rd time since last September that DeMarcus Ware has been very slow to get up from an apparent neck injury. Now, we can obviously debate the severity of each of these occasions (Tampa Bay, San Diego, and Washington), but we cannot debate that it is the same guy and the same very serious part of the body for a football player. We also cannot debate that he is without question the Cowboys best defensive player of this entire era, and that is why I hope that this disturbing trend stops very quickly. I certainly would not pretend to offer Ware advice about his tackling technique, but last night his head was down and he was not looking at what he was hitting. Scary stuff.

* Dez Bryant's debut would have to be called impressive. He was not perfect by any stretch (as a ball sailed right past his eyeballs on one particular moment where he evidently didn't realize he was the "hot" read) but I never would have expected that he would have 12 balls thrown in his direction. Those quick screens were not fooling anyone, but they did get him involved early, and I don't think it would be a stretch to already assume that the Cowboys are ready to give him the job as #2 man behind Austin. Roy Williams will have his chances this year, but on a big-picture basis, it appears that they have big plans for #88.

* If I am Wade Phillips, I need much more pressure from my defense. Ware did get 1 sack, but beyond that, the Redskins were not overwhelmed at all with the blitzes and pressure schemes of the Cowboys defense. Anthony Spencer was kept quiet most of the night by Jammal Brown, and overall, the Linebackers blitzing through the "A" gaps gave the Redskins interior very little concern. Additionally, As the game went on, Clinton Portis started finding more success and the Redskins were able to accomplish just enough to look dangerous at various moments. That 4th Quarter drive that ended in the long Gano FG consumed tons of valuable seconds that the Cowboys could not afford to lose. While it is difficult placing too much blame on the defense after they held the Redskins to 6 points, I don't want to let them off the hook. They can play much better than that.

* Very odd officiating in that final Redskins drive where they flagged Chris Cooley for illegal motion that nullified a long Portis run because they said he was leaning to the line of scrimmage at the snap. On the very next snap, he did it again - perhaps even more blatantly, and they let it go. And Portis broke off an even longer run.

* Someone may have to explain NBC's Night Vision idea. That was about as pointless a technological advance as I can recall.

* I can't believe that NBC didn't think that they should remind the marginal NFL fan about why Andre Gurode and Albert Haynesworth have such a history. October 1, 2006 was the notable day where they became forever linked when Haynesworth stomped Gurode in one of the more bizarre losses of composure that I can recall. In case your memory doesn't serve you well, Here is the Youtube link for your review. I thought the battle last night was pretty salty while it lasted, but I would also imagine that last night may very well be his last night in Washington. It is guys like him who give all professional athletes a bad name. Very few have that level of sorriness and take a gigantic stack of money but don't feel like that allows anyone to coach them how they see fit. I hope he knows the ramifications of his actions - that while he may get his money - he will never have the respect of most people in the league. Quite a shame for a tremendous athlete.

* On Tuesday, we attempt to deconstruct the play-calling of Jason Garrett, but I know most people don't want to wait. I anticipated a game plan where they would ask Romo to get the ball out quickly. So, when that happens, I would be foolish to seem surprised. But, he is taking a beating today for not calling that game right. Actually, I think he did what had to be done. You will not ground and pound with success with that line you had last night. He did what had to be done. But 3 major errors are why he does need to be critiqued. I wrote at great length at the start of this review what 2 of them are: 1) the play idea at the end of the half. 2) the premise of not giving Barron help on the most important play of the game. and now 3) not nearly enough Felix Jones. I don't think you can have a weapon that dangerous and have huge portions of the game where he is not heard from. The Cowboys have a lot of toys in their toy box on offense. But, they have to know their priorities. Felix Jones must be a priority in his 3rd season. 10 touches is about 5 touches too light for me.

* I don't believe this will be the only time this season that we ponder how good the Cowboys are at kicker. The handling of this entire David Buehler situation is curious. If he was so good, why didn't you give him the job in December when Nick Folk hit the skids? But, if you had concerns about him in December, why did you not have concerns about him in July when you decided that he was your unchallenged kicker? What could he have possibly done between January and July to prove he could make a big time kick in a regular season road game? By the way, a 34-yard FG in the 2nd Quarter of week 1 is hardly a big time kick. And he missed that. Look for this to be a theme for a while here.

* Alan Ball was not a factor in game 1. That is very good, but most teams will have far more aerial plans than Washington.

* Miles Austin is worth every penny. I know we all want things to complain about, but paying an elite receiver fair money is not worth your complaints. He gives opponents fits. Too strong for most corners, too fast for most safeties. He is a fine investment. Don't let bad contracts for Joey Galloway and Roy Williams ruin good contracts for guys who are worth it.

This one will sting a bit. Of your eight road games, this one might be ranked the easiest challenge, and yet it goes in the loss column. Hopefully, help is on the way for the offense with health returning for Marc Colombo and Kyle Kosier. Either way, noon Sunday brings in the very fortunate Chicago Bears for another very important contest.

93.75% to go.

Game Plan Friday: Week 1 At Washington

http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/09/expect-cowboys-redskins-game-t.html:

I am not sure any of us have a great feel for what this next era of the Dan Snyder Washington Redskins will bring. Marty Schottenheimer brought promise. Then, Steve Spurrier brought promise. So, did Joe Gibbs as well as a bag of rings. Heck, Jim Zorn was at least mysterious. But, in the end, none of them left with a winning record. In fact, the Joe Gibbs tenure of 1981-1992 is the last Washington Coach to leave with a winning record.

Enter Mike Shanahan. And Bruce Allen. And Donovan McNabb. Is it better or just different?

I have no doubt that it is better. Shanahan, like Bill Parcells in Dallas, should be able to take the identity of the franchise and place the owner on the back burner for a few years. The media, players, and public now look to him for decisions and proclamations on given team issues. Jim Zorn never had this. He was working for the boss (Campo, Gailey). But, I think if Shanahan wants Haynesworth gone (He does) then Albert Haynesworth will likely not see October 1 in Washington.

Now, can he bring that John Elway, Terrell Davis, Shannon Sharpe, Broncos Attack to Washington?

We begin to find out on Sunday. But the cliche indicates that you won't win the Kentucky Derby on a donkey. You better have the horses. They really needed to start completely over on the offense. I applaud their efforts in acquiring two tackles from Oklahoma that should be there for a while in Trent Williams at pick 4 in Round 1 in this year's draft and Jammal Brown, the former Sooner that was with the Saints in a trade. Those are two highly imperative additions to this offense, as the offensive line has really been an eyesore for years in Washington. But, they still have an aging RB, no identifiable playmakers at WR aside from an aging Santana Moss (who has had his yards per catch drop every season since 2005 - but I might not blame him as much as the Jim Zorn offense that would never throw the ball beyond 5 yards downfield).

What they do have is a 2-headed attack at Tight End, a spot that Shanahan knows how to use, with Chris Cooley and Fred Davis. If you wonder where they may test you early, it is in that same "12" personnel scheme that the Cowboys employed last season - as did a good chunk of the league. They will make you decide what you want to cheat on, and if you show that you are sitting on the run, they will play-action to the pass. And if you look like you are defending pass, they will use those 2 TEs as additional blockers and try to get Clinton Portis going. On the road, the Redskins may look sterile on offense, but I figure at home they should be able to get a few things done.

Meanwhile, Shanahan brought in Jim Haslett to run the defense and they quickly converted to Haslett's love, the 3-4 that he ran back in Pittsburgh. You really should read this story from the Washington Post this week about the conversion to the 3-4 and the premise that this should lead to more takeaways. In there, the DBs say that interceptions are low because they always were on "press" coverage and playing man-to-man. The idea is that in man coverage, your back is to the QB and you are running with your guy. This keeps you from interceptions. Also, 3-4 is more attacking which allows more hits on the QB which means more takeaways, right? I found particular comedy in the idea since the Cowboys run a 3-4, and zone up in the secondary quite a bit, and yet they generate no takeaways either. The story also indicates "they are focusing on stripping the ball more" in practice. I say this with great certainty. If you want takeaways, get DBs that get takeaways. Every team that generates a big number has guys who have done it in every scheme and every place they have played. Takeaways are not a scheme-generated product, in my opinion. It is based on players that make plays.

Anyway, the defense is much, much harder to discuss without knowing the fate of the most unstoppable interior DL guy in football (provided he wants to play that week) in Haynesworth. A 3-4 without Haynesworth is a defense that does not have enough dynamic players to be much better than "ok" in 2010. Everyone likes Orakpo coming off the edge, and they have the ageless London Fletcher in the middle, and a few reasonable corners in DeAngelo Hall and Carlos Rogers. But really, they are rather weak on the DL without 92, and the safeties are nothing special. If they want to roll the bones and risk coverage for pressure, they should be able to generate it with numbers, but I think that will set up Tony Romo for some big plays when he gets the ball out quick to a man in stride.

Regardless, when looking at each side of the ball, I have this game being a low-scoring game that will show off the punters and where turnovers will be tough to overcome. The Cowboys schedule is tough this year, and every road game is a tough test. Opening in Washington to start the Mike Shanahan era is no picnic on any level.

ON OFFENSE: In Week 1 of 2008, the Dallas Cowboys racked up 487 yards in a 28-10 pounding of the Cleveland Browns in Cleveland. In Week 1 of 2009, the Cowboys rolled up 472 yards in a 34-21 dismantling of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Florida. In Week 1 of 2010, the Cowboys are being asked to open the season on the road for the 3rd straight year against a team that is not expected to be a strong contender. But, I would strongly expect fewer than that point and yardage production this year.

The reasons for this are obvious. 3 spots on the offensive line are occupied by newcomers. In the case of 2 of those 3, they are merely understudies who are not thought of as starting quality. Rather, LG Montrae Holland and RT Alex Barron are tabbed to be reasonable reserves who will be able to hold their own when given a rare opportunity if everything goes well. But, they surely did not expect to roll out in Week 1 with both of them to be starting together. Add to that Doug Free's first attempt to prove he is worthy of the Left Tackle post in the first game of the "Post-Flozell" era, and you can understand if the Cowboys are heading into this game with a bar that is likely knowing some real limitations are on their plate in Week 1.

In 2010, they will have big plans for their offense. But to get that done, they know that Marc Colombo and Kyle Kosier will have to hold down the fort. Both are thought of as very strong run blockers. Kosier especially is a remarkable blocker in space, and a real athletic lead blocker when he pulls. Holland is quite the opposite. Alex Barron has a NFL body, but his strength at the point of attack is not near NFL Quality. I suspect that Jason Garrett knows there are quite a few things he normally does that he will not even attempt on Sunday night.

What is the big deal about plugging Holland in at Left Guard instead of Kosier? Here is some video to demonstrate what we are dealing with.

This is from last year's Kansas City game. Watch LG. The entire play is based on your LG getting out in front of the ball carrier and getting the path cleared. Kosier is outstanding with his ability to get there fast and then put an athletic move on a DL or a LB to give the runner a large hole.





They ran these types of plays every Sunday last year. Just gashed teams when they would use "12" or "22" personnel and a type of "G-Power" with a down, down and around blocking scheme where the Center and Guard block towards Kosier, and he swings around the Right Guard. This is not Holland's game. Look at this attempt to pull him in San Diego. Watch Holland #64, not Doug Free. He is not good in space. And everyone involved in the game Sunday knows it. So, Garrett may not even try his bread and butter.



(big thanks DCFanatic for help on the videos)

OFFENSIVE OBJECTIVES:

1) - Keep Composure in Volatile Setting - Playing in Washington is tough? Yes. Especially when it is a night game. Especially when it is the Cowboys. Especially when the Redskins are in a 4-way tie for 1st Place. Especially when the team has a new coach with Super Bowl Rings and a new QB who has been to 5 NFC Championship Games and can still play. The point is this: The Cowboys - especially their QB - will need to keep cool when things roll against them a bit. He is likely to get hit. And he is likely to get hit often. The Cowboys are not overly likely to run the ball well. These are all things the home crowd will draw off. And that is when Tony Romo will need big composure. He has shown it at times, but there have been many times in the last few seasons where everything unravels in a hurry in these situations (at Denver, at Green Bay, at New York, at Minnesota in '09). This is not a road game where you can do your opponent any favors with poor turnovers or poor decisions.

2) - Get 60 yards from the Ground and Pound - Now, don't misunderstand this. I am not saying run for 60 yards. I am saying run for 60 yards from "Run" looks. Romo under center, 1st and 10, 2nd and normal, 3rd and short. Can the Cowboys line up and get 60 yards in situations where the Skins are sitting on a run? I am not too interested in 12 yard carries on 3rd and 16 on some shotgun draw play to set up a punt. The question is can Dallas find 15 yards per quarter from "11", "12", "21", or "22" personnel? Or, more than likely, will the Cowboys find little or no success on the ground early and then roll out the shotgun the rest of the game (see: Green Bay game - 2009) instead of sticking with it? Honestly, you cannot totally blame them if they are more likely to roll more Shotgun than usual because of the OL situation, but you cannot be too 1-dimensional.

3) - Red Zone Conversions - I think this problem has actually been a bit overblown. Look, I don't love the Cowboys offense in the red zone either, but the stats show that they are actually right in the middle of the league in turning their drives inside the 20 (50) into TDs (26). 26 out of 50 is 52% and that ranks 14th in the NFL. I might rather ask, why are the Cowboys going to the redzone only 50 times all season? They had the 2nd most yards in the league last year and the most yards in the NFL on a per snap basis (6.26!). So, why did it not always mean points? Because of that darn starting field position. Only 2 teams started further back in their own territory in each drive than the Cowboys (Oakland, Tennessee). And that is why Minnesota can have fewer yards but get to the red zone 19 more times. Same for New England which had fewer yards but had 15 more red zone trips. Dallas and New England had the same red zone TD%, but New England got there 15 more times. That means almost 8 more TDs. But, for Sunday's purposes, without a good OL and a decent run game, you may not get there often. So, when they do, they need to convert for 7. Jason Witten needs more than 2 TDs in 90+ catches.

4) - Doug Free vs Brian Orakpo - If you are a follower of Orakpo from his Texas days, you know his talent. They played him at DE in Austin, but everyone knew in the NFL he was a perfect conversion guy to a 3-4 OLB. Pure speed rusher and an exceptional athletic presence. They say he is awfully 1-dimensional himself. Loves to rush the passer, doesn't love when they run the ball right at him. So, I think you might see the Cowboys go right at him early off LT. Good news for Washington? Orakpo had 11 sacks as a rookie which is a huge number. Bad news? He was sackless in 6 of his final 7 games. Of course, I might argue that this was the college wall. Regardless, Doug Free has a great test for his first rodeo at Left Tackle. And if they line Haynesworth over Holland (which seems like an obvious idea) then I am going to be able to help Free much.


ON DEFENSE:

So, have we figured out what exactly constitutes the Wade Phillips Defense? We have 51 games with which to judge, and 3 full regular seasons.

First, we know that nobody in the entire league gets to the QB like the Dallas Cowboys:

2007-09 Team Sack Leaders

1.	Dallas	147
2.	Pittsburgh	134
3.	Minnesota	131
4.	Philadelphia	129
5.	New York G	127
32.	Kansas City	69

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But, then we know that hardly anybody takes the ball away less than the Dallas Cowboys:

2007-09 Fewest Team Takeaways

32.	Washington	59
31.	Oakland	70
30.	New York Giants	71
29.	Dallas	72
1.	San Diego	97

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Weren't we told for years and years that pressure causes interceptions and coverage causes sacks? I feel like I was lied about that since I have watched the Cowboys so closely for the last 2 years. All sorts of pressure - and almost no interceptions or takeaways.

And that is why the Cowboys were not dying to keep Ken Hamlin in the fold. They thought that he did not make enough plays in 2008 or 2009, and that his range was not what it needed to be for that money. So, enter Alan Ball. I honestly don't know what to make of that decision, other than he can not have less of an impact than Hamlin when it comes to causing turnovers. But, he also may appear to have a target on his chest as opposing coaches will be figuring out how to isolate him in space and test him out like they do any new DB in the NFL. He is unproven and unheralded, and I am sure Kyle Shanahan will have a few designs set up for him. If he passes those tests, he will gain respect. If not, the target will get bigger.

DEFENSIVE OBJECTIVES:

1) - DeMarcus Ware vs Trent Williams - Trent Williams is a great prospect. He is not perfect - as Sam Bradford's body will attest, but he should be very good in the long run. But, I would like to think that he is not ready for DeMarcus Ware lining up over him all night. This is his "welcome to the NFL" moment, and the Cowboys are banking on another big year form #94. In fact, we all know that the exciting part of this season is that #93 Anthony Spencer is a man who has broken out. If he is what we think he is, the Cowboys should be as dangerous up front as any team. Who do you double-team? Ware? Spencer? Jay Ratliff? Pick your poison. They should be terrific.

2) - Hold the Perimeter on McNabb - Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb do not have similarities in the way they believe offense should perform, except on 1 particular concept; they both love the bootleg-rollout for passes downfield. They like to fake the entire offense to the left and then have the QB and the TE rolling to the right for an option route with a flanker post pattern deep over the top. This requires that Spencer, in particular, minds his spot and doesn't charge inside and take the bait. It also requires safety help, but we will spend more time on them in a moment.

3) - Build the Wall - We can talk about taking the ball away all night, but the reason the Cowboys were still in the Super Bowl hunt last season despite no takeaways is that they were stout against the run. No team had fewer run plays run against them in 2009 than the Cowboys. Teams knew they couldn't run (except Tampa) and stopped trying. The Redskins run out of necessity and realize an aerial attack is not in the cards. The commentators will tell us about the zone running scheme that Shanahan believes in and it will be up to the Cowboys to demonstrate why you are wasting your time running the ball against them. Do not undersell the value of Marcus Spears coming back to make that happen, because in the preseason, it didn't seem that the Chargers or Texans thought it was tough to run against the Cowboys.

4) - Safeties Must Play at Full Speed - Seems like an obvious concept, but Michael Hamlin had a chance in training camp to get a great look at safety. But, every time I watched him, it seemed like he was at "practice" speed. In the NFL, a safety has a ton going on inside his head. He must pay attention to 100 things at the same time. But, if his brain is making his body a step slow, then he is useless. Can Alan Ball and Gerald Sensabaugh orchestrate the defense and lay the wood on anyone who challenges them? When opposing coaches look at attacking the Dallas Defense, you know they will not like seeing the triangle of terror up front (94-90-93) nor will they enjoy seeing Newman and Jenkins at Corner. But, Ball and Sensabaugh? The attacks will be there for sure. Get ready.

Summary

It is not a lay-up. It is a high-emotion, amp-ed up, opening night. It should be an electric setting that will be highly physical and potentially frustrating since the Cowboys offense is not ready for a physical battle with this make-shift offensive line. But, you go with what you got, and the win will depend on a QB making a few big plays, a defense giving the offense a short field once in a while, and maybe a kicker who has never made an official NFL kick proving he can get it done in the pinch with the whole football world watching.

This is going to be an exciting setting to get the season going. I am taking the Cowboys, but in a battle to the end.

Cowboys 21, Redskins 17

Thursday Cowboys E-Mail Bag

As seen http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/09/bob-sturm-what-cowboys-roster.html

I am still trying to get a feel for my offerings on a day-to-day and week-to-week basis here at the DMN. I will be honest and say one of my biggest problems as a radio guy/blogger/sports dork is that my eyes are a bit bigger than my stomach when it comes to projects like this. Therefore, I need to force myself to be conservative early in the season in what I will try to deliver over the course of the next 20 or so weeks. It is better to under-promise and over-deliver so I will try to go in that direction.

With that in mind, here is what I am thinking will be my schedule (with most posts hitting your computer before 10 am each day:

Monday: "The Morning After" Column - 2,000 words of random observations straight from my notebook on that week's game.
Tuesday: Decoding Garrett
Wednesday: Digging Deeper - I plan on focusing on 1 particular match-up and as the title suggests, digging a little deeper. My initial plan is to find one of the opponent's elite players, and focus on how the Cowboys dealt with him throughout the game. Albert Haynesworth is a candidate this week, but so is Brian Orakpo. But, I am excited about this new feature that should have plenty of numbers and video for you to digest.
Thursday: Reset Day. I am thinking this will be interaction day. Answering your questions whether it be via email or a live chat.
Friday: Game Plan Friday - 2,000 more words of trying to sort through what the Cowboys main objectives and game plan thoughts should and could be heading into the game.

So, since this is Thursday, I wanted to go through this week's posts and find comments that needed further addressing:

Here are links to this week's entries and the comments below are mostly from there: Monday - Tashard Choice , Tuesday - Decoding Garrett Primer , and Wednesday - Analyzing the Schedule .



This is from Lee Blair on the Tashard Choice piece:

That was the biggest tub of Bull manure I've ever seen spilled on one table. He had to sit for a while to make that one up, and he should brush his teeth after spewing out that much crap. I thought I had heard every tale that could be told to justify Barber still being on the team and starting!

Special teams? You bring in another back and quit risking your best running back on special teams-because if he gets hurt, you are back to Felix and Barber- and that means no ground attack half of the time.

Your starting back shouldn't be in on third downs???? Why don't you just telegraph to the defense, "we're gonna pass, don't worry about the run"? Try telling Emmitt Smith he wasn't needed on third downs. He would have ripped your head off.

Whoever this guy is, he shouldn't be writing and dreaming this stuff up- because his imagination has gotten the better of him. Wow.

Lee, here are my thoughts: First, I think if you read the article a little more closely, you will see I think very highly of Choice and I believe he will likely be the featured back in 2011. But in 2010, he serves some very important other purposes. I need special teams to be good if this team is going anywhere. And unless you watch football from a purely fantasy football perspective, you surely realize that coverage units are vital. Hidden yardage is a real consequence to those who are not mindful of which 11 players are on punt coverage and kickoff coverage. One of these days, I will show you the probability of each yard line and how starting at a certain place makes you that much more likely to score a TD than 36 inches back. It is shocking.

But, I actually want to address something that I think many of us fall victim to in 2010 as we follow the NFL. There are many trends that are obvious and pointed out every week. One that is mentioned, but not spelled out is the role of the RB in 2010. You are right. Early in his career, Emmitt Smith was an every down back. He played on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. But that was the NFL almost 2 decades ago. Do you realize how things have changed since then? I was just watching the 1993 Cowboys season finale (The Emmitt Shoulder Game in the Meadowlands) and I charted the offense. Do you know that in 1993, the Cowboys had about 2 personnel groups on normal downs and distances? 12 and 21. The only real substitution Norv Turner employed was Moose for Scott Galbraith. That was it. They ran 0 plays from the shotgun the entire game. The Giants played pretty much the same 11 players on defense and the Cowboys played the same 12 players on offense.

Fast forward 17 seasons and the NFL is way different. There is so much specialization. Last season, the Cowboys opened their season up against Tampa Bay and ran the 1st 10 plays with substitutions after every play but one. Here are the packages from play 1 to play 10: 21, S01, 12, 12, 22, 12, S11, S12, 21, Wildcat. In doing that, the Cowboys put 16 different players on the field.

My point is that while you are right - Emmitt did play every down for a good portion of the Cowboys dynasty - things are different now. Look around the league. There is no RB who handles all 65 plays every Sunday for their team. Very few teams do not have a designated 3rd Down back. In fact, now, teams go to the draft looking for a specialized 3rd Down back (they used to just look for a RB. Now, they consider his pass protecting and pass catching as a priority).

One team is considering trying to ask their marquee back to do more. The Vikings never used Adrian Peterson on 3rd Downs because they had Chester Taylor. But, I believe the play is to roll him out more on 3rd Downs starting tonight in New Orleans, so we will see if that is something they really follow through on. But, the NFL has moved away from every down backs. Using Emmitt to compare against Barber or Choice is silly on many, many levels.

From The Real King on the Garrett study:

The Cowboys never run a 10? That's surprising, but interestingly enough, I've been reading this since you started it, and never thought of it before.

No. In 2009, with 1146 plays in my database from 16 games and 2 playoff games, there was not 1 single snap out of 10 personnel (1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR) from the Cowboys. Why? When you have Jason Witten, you want your elite Tight End on the field in every situation. He is practically has WR skills and demands DB coverage so Garrett can flex him out and get even a better matchup than a slot WR because Witten often demands a bracket cover scheme with a LB underneath and a Safety over the top.

From BradO on Garrett:

I have really enjoyed your first two columns; thanks to the DMN for seeing the value in this. A couple of notes: 1) I think you may want to classify Gronkowski as a TE in order to do apples to apples for this year compared to last. 2) One of the first questions that comes to mind is sacks -- against what packages are they most and least likely, what is done to stop them, and what does that cost in terms of targets for Romo.

Thanks, Brad. We need to see how Gronkowski is deployed. I suspect we will see plenty of John Phillips role reprised, but we have to wait and see. If he is a pure blocker, then opponents will not substitute to account for him being a threat down the field. I expect the Cowboys to move him around plenty from F-Back, to H-Back, and to a traditional TE position. Let's look for this on Sunday, because it appears that several of the beat writers have been predicting that Deon Anderson could be out of the 45 on Sunday night. That would put quite a bit on Gronkowski's plate if the Cowboys plan on using "21" or "22". Personally, I think Anderson must play because "22" is a very important part of the Cowboys game plan in 2009. Maybe 2010 will be different.

As for tracking negative plays by package, I plan on doing that. I will tell you that Tony Romo threw 9 INTs last season, and 7 were from Shotgun. He was sacked 34 times last year, and 18 were in Shotgun. I don't want to tip my hand, but my general theme in doing this study the last 2 seasons is that the Cowboys are not as good at offense in the shotgun with the field spread as they think they are (or as their fans and media may think). The Colts, Patriots, and Saints are 3 teams that spread you out and pick you apart. The Cowboys seem to be much better as a passing team when there is a threat of a run when the ball is snapped.

From IBCF

Bob, just a quick question for you. Last year in the opening game against Tampa Bay the Cowboys used Roy Williams coming in motion and then he ran a seem route which he scored a TD i believe it was about a 65 yard TD pass. I can not remember them running that play again the entire year. Am I wrong about that? Can you tell me the formation on that play?

Sure. In fact, here is what I wrote in last season's week 1 "Decoding Garrett":

66 Yard TD to Roy Williams:



Here, we have Shotgun "12". Bennett is wide left, Witten is wide right. Tampa Bay puts corners on both Cowboys Tight Ends, I assume because they are lined up as the "widest receivers". Meanwhile, Crayton is in the slot by Witten on the right, Williams is in the slot on the left. In pre snap, Williams comes in motion over to the right side by Crayton, and now you have 2 "speed" WRs in the right slot, with nothing but LBs and Safeties to contend with. 82 and 80 run 10 yard routes and stop. Crayton drags across the field 5 yards downfield, and Williams runs right down the seam. You can see early on that Ronde Barber (#20 - who is lined up with Witten) sees this is very bad and tries to go help on Williams, but it is too late. Candy from babies here, and you can bet the Giants are really trying to figure out what they will do differently.

There. I kind of like going back and seeing what I had written about certain plays like that. Feel free to suggest others.

==================

Finally, I put this together for my own notebook, but I thought I would share it with you; It is a chart of how the Cowboys Final 53 looks for the 4 seasons under Wade. It gives you an idea of what the guys in the War-Room are thinking when they have 80 bodies in training camp. These are the numbers they have to get to for the final cut-down by position. You will also note that when you add one in one place (a 3rd QB, a kick-off specialist) then you are short somewhere else. And somewhere else always seems to be someone on special teams.

Position	2007	2008	2009	2010
QB	2	2	3	3
RB	5	4	4	5
TE	3	3	3	2
WR	6	5	5	5
OL	10	11	10	10
DL	6	6	6	7
LB	7	8	9	9
DB	11	11	9	9
ST	3	3	4	3
Total	53	53	53	53

Table Tutorial

2007: 26 Offense/24 Defense/3 Specialist
2008: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2009: 25 Offense/24 Defense/4 Specialist
2010: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist

Sources: Archer 2008 , Archer 2007 , MacMahon 2009, and Archer 2010.

Game Plan Friday for the Redskins

EPL Weekend Slate

No EPL to summarize this week, but there is one giant juicy Wayne Rooney Scandal to read up about if you haven't already.

Beyond that, here is the weekend slate:

EPL TV Schedule - All Times Eastern

Saturday, September 11:
7:45am: Everton v Manchester United, Fox Soccer Plus
10am: Arsenal v Bolton, Fox Soccer Channel
10am: Manchester City v Blackburn, Fox Soccer Plus
10am: West Ham United v Chelsea, ESPN2
10am: West Brom v Spurs, FoxSoccer.tv (also shown on delay on Fox Soccer Channel at Noon)
10am: Fulham v Wolves, FoxSoccer.tv (also shown on delay on Fox Soccer Channel at 11:30pm)
10am: Newcastle v Blackpool, FoxSoccer.tv (also shown on delay on Fox Soccer Channel on Sunday at 8:30am)
10am: Wigan v Sunderland, FoxSoccer.tv (also shown on delay on Fox Soccer Channel on Sunday at 12:30pm)

Sunday, September 12:
11am: Birmingham City v Liverpool, Fox Soccer Channel

Monday, September 13:
3pm: Stoke City v Aston Villa, ESPN3.com

I would not miss the difficult trip United has to Goodison Park if you have Fox Soccer Plus (if not, let's get on it). Chelsea visiting Upton Park looks tasty, too. And Birmingham City has a 16 game unbeaten streak at home up against Liverpool.

Enjoy.

Fun Bag returns next week, I hope.

Decoding Garrett '10

As seen Here: http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/09/bob-sturm-decoding-jason-garre.html

Today, is where you begin to find out if I am what you are looking for. I believe I bring different topics and discussions to the forum than some, and I quickly concede that my interests are not for everyone. For instance, if "who Tony Romo is dating" or "what Terrell said about Romo on Wednesday" is incredibly interesting, then what I am about to discuss may make your eyes roll back in your head and induce a deep sleep.

Today and pretty much every Tuesday all season long, I will offer information for you under the heading of "Decoding Garrett" which is a summary title of my 3 year obsession to get inside Jason Garrett's head and attempt to figure out his game plan and objectives for the Dallas Cowboys offense.

Since 2008, on my personal blog We have broken down every Cowboys game by personnel package and this helps us to identify what Garrett is trying to accomplish.

Here is the game summary from the December Redskins Game so you can see what I am talking about. We break down the big plays (both of the good variety and the bad) to try to engage in our own level of film study and attempt to understand Jason Garrett on a level much deeper than fantasy football or just looking at the final score.

Why did certain strategies work? Why did other objectives just not make sense? Every game, I try to figure that out with data nd video. So, hopefully those of you who enjoy football from a "chess game" perspective will really get into this.

However, we must walk before we can run, so here are a few things that you will need to know as we enter week 1.

Yesterday, when I posted about Tashard Choice I referenced "S11" as their 3rd Down package, and there was one comment that I wanted to address this morning:

Robert42078: Bob, do me a favor either on air or in this forum. Can you go over the personel packages and their corresponding names.

Absolutely, Robert. And I very much believe that this is something that is essential to understand a game plan in the NFL (or any level of football). After every play, an offensive coordinator looks at his play sheet and decides what he wants to do on the next snap. He must consider down-and-distance and pick something that makes sense. Once he decides, he sends out the proper personnel package to execute the play. Meanwhile, across the field, the defensive coaches for the opponent observe what Garrett is sending out there and then he matches up with a proper personnel change of his own (Nickel, Dime, Base, etc).

By simply watching a game on television, you can easily identify the personnel that an offense is sending out there. And once you know that, you are prepared to keep a tally on a notebook to see for yourself what the Offensive Coordinator is attempting to do.

Remember, there are 2 important things that a defensive player is attempting to do pre-snap. 1) He is looking at personnel and making sure from their film study and their defensive game plan what his responsibility will be. He usually has time to absorb this piece of information during the huddle and get a proper play call from his own sideline. Then 2) He is looking at formation. This deploying of the 11 offensive players are a subset of the personnel. You can have "12" personnel on the field and it can mean many different things. If you are a middle linebacker and both tight ends are lined up off right tackle, you must make sure you identify enough of your mates to neutralize the "strong side" run formation on that side. If, instead, Witten is flexed out in the slot, then you are thinking pass, and that Bennett is serving to pass protect while we better get some help on Witten before he runs the verticals that he is so likely to run with effectiveness. The worst part about formation is that it can happen at the last possible second before the snap with pre-snap motion and adjustments part of every NFL offense.

With that in mind, we must go back to personnel groups. If we are going to attempt to process some of this information, we must first all agree on terminology.

Below, please find the Cowboys offense broken down by personnel groups.

For any of this to make sense, you have to know what all of the different packages mean. Basically, it is very simple. Every Offense in the world has 1 QB and 5 Offensive Linemen. Therefore, if 11 players are on the field, then that leaves 5 players who can join the QB in skill positions and the Offensive Coordinator has to choose how to deploy those 5. So, the groups are simple. "11" means 1 RB and 1 TE, so you add those 2 numbers together (1+1 = 2) and subtract that number from 5 to get how many WRs are on the field at the time. (11 will mean 3 WRs, of course).

Personnel Package	Description
11	1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
12	1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
13	1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR
21	2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR
22	2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR
23	2 RB, 3 TE
S11	Shotgun, 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
S12	Shotgun, 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR

Table Tutorial

Do you get it? In all of the packages, the first number is the number of RBs, the second number is the total number of TEs. And "S" means Shotgun. So, when you watch the game on tv, you can easily identify the package before the snap to see what Garrett is doing.

And when you do all of this, you will quickly see patterns. You will see that the Cowboys are in Shotgun 94% of the time last season on 3rd Down and 4 yards or more. You will see that the Cowboys on 1st Down are 52% run in their 456 1st Down snaps last year. But, all a defense has to do is look at the position of the QB. If Jason Garrett shows shotgun on 1st Down, the Cowboys are passing 83% of the time; under center they run 65% of the time on 1st Down.

The reason we have to keep track of this is simple to me. If conventional wisdom is that the Cowboys are a good "shotgun" team with "11" personnel (last year it was generally Choice, Witten, Crayton, Williams, and Austin), then we have to ask the question why they were more effective passing the ball in "12" personnel in yards per play and passer rating. Romo threw the bulk of his interceptions when they went to the "S11" package and did not get the results to make it worth the while.

Anyway, Here are the 6 different Personnel Groups that Jason Garrett called more than 16 times in 2009. My logic is that we should attempt to try to keep this complicated topic as simple as possible. So, I am not saying the Wildcat wasn't important, but if it wasn't used more than 20 times all year, then we will not bore you with the Data. I have included a picture with each of them, so you know what you are looking for:




S11 Personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR - In Shotgun) - The MOST Run Package in 2009
This is the default package for any 3rd Down that is not 3rd and short. This is also the default 2-min drill offense. This is the bread and butter of the offense for the entire Jason Garrett era.

Run/Pass	Yards	Avg Per Play	% of Snaps
293 Total Snaps	2038	6.96	-
44 Runs	285	6.48	15%
249 Passes	1753	7.04	85%

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22 Personnel (2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR) - The 2nd Most Run Package in 2009
In 2009, this is what the Cowboys loved to do on 1st and 2nd Down as they were attempting to demonstrate their physical running style. What is odd about the '09 Cowboys is that the stats say that they were a "power running team". And they were in "22". The problem is, when they needed short yardage late in the year against the Chargers or the Vikings, they knew they couldn't get it. A power running team has to be able to convert 3rd and 1. In Minnesota, the Cowboys didn't even try. 3rd and 1 became a passing situation.

Run/Pass	Yards	Avg Per Play	% of Snaps
181 Total Snaps	1001	5.53	-
140 Runs	812	5.80	77%
41 Passes	189	4.61	23%

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12 Personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) - The 3rd Most Run Package in 2009
The most versatile look available. If the defense tries to stack against the run, the Cowboys can audible into a pass with 4 weapons on the field (Austin, Williams, Bennett, and Witten). And, if they sit back in a pass posture, the Cowboys pound the rock with 7 Offensive Linemen. It is a very popular base look around the league, instead of the traditional "21" look.

Run/Pass	Yards	Avg Per Play	% of Snaps
167 Total Snaps	1175	7.04	-
75 Runs	321	4.28	45%
92 Passes	854	9.28	55%

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21 Personnel (2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR) - The 4th Most Run Package in 2009
Since the beginning of time, this is how football looked. But, Jason Garrett knows that 21 means Deon Anderson is on the field. He is a fine blocker, but not a threat to do anything else. If he takes him off and puts on a 2nd TE or a 3rd WR, the offense is far more threatening.

Run/Pass	Yards	Avg Per Play	% of Snaps
104 Total Snaps	633	6.09	-
70 Runs	301	4.30	67%
34 Passes	332	9.76	33%

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S12 Personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR - In Shotgun) - The 5th Most Run Package in 2009
A variation of S11, where Martellus comes on for a 3rd WR. Slightly difficult match-up for the secondary, but it also allows TE pass protection help without Witten having to do it.

Run/Pass	Yards	Avg Per Play	% of Snaps
118 Total Snaps	933	7.91	-
9 Runs	34	3.78	8%
109 Passes	897	8.23	92%

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13 Personnel (1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR) - The 6th Most Run Package in 2009
A variation of the "22" that worked John Phillips in Deon Anderson's spot. They threw a TD to Phillips in the Eagles playoff game out of this if memory serves.

Run/Pass	Yards	Avg Per Play	% of Snaps
64 Total Snaps	260	4.06	-
43 Runs	168	3.91	67%
21 Passes	92	4.38	33%

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Below are the final overall numbers for the offense by package. It is interesting to look at 2008 vs 2009. So much talk about how the offense was going to be different and more "Romo-Friendly". As we noted above, the number of runs was pretty much exactly the same as it was in 2008. Losing Terrell Owens and trying to run more efficiently meant only 1 thing in totality in 2009 - more Martellus Bennett and John Phillips.

Look at the uptick in "22", and "S12" - 187 more snaps this season (nearly 12 more PER GAME) with 2 TE Sets. Most of that is Martellus Bennett. I have no idea why his production is so very low. It is alarmingly low (15 catches???) but the object of the game is not to make Bennett a great fantasy football player. It is to make the Cowboys offense efficient. And, it seems difficult to argue that these 2-TE sets are the bread and butter of the 2009 Dallas Cowboys. And that offense was very, very effective.

And for all of the 3 Tight End Sets, now you see why the John Phillips injury is thought of as a rather large deal on the coaching staff.

2009 Final Numbers

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Percentage
11	12	35	1%
12	167	1175	17.%
13	64	260	6%
21	104	633	10%
22	181	1001	18%
23	9	10	1%
S11	293	2038	29%
S12	118	933	12%

Table Tutorial

2008 Final Numbers

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Percentage
11	27	115	3%
12	170	856	17%
13	44	310	4%
21	173	958	18%
22	92	375	10%
23	9	6	1%
S11	385	2594	39%
S12	30	141	3%

Table Tutorial

So, like I said, this isn't for everyone. But, I hope it is for you.

The Choice for Choice

As seen Here: http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/09/cowboys-tashard-choice-a-victi.html


Plenty of news and speculation over the weekend about how the Cowboys decided to build their roster to start the 2010 campaign and with that arrived reports that Marion Barber could join "the Patricks" - Crayton, Watkins, McQuistin - on the outside of the Cowboys 53.

Nothing became of it - most likely because the Cowboys would have a difficult time moving what is left of his quite sizable contract. Let's be honest: Barring an unforeseen turn of events, MB3 likely joins Roy Williams as those who are on a year-to-year audition for their Cowboys careers - especially once the NFL salary cap comes back into our lives. If they are here in 2011, it is because they were awesome in 2010.

Which moves us to the topic that is on the minds of Cowboys fans and Fantasy Football fans, too. How will the Cowboys work 3 RBs who all appear to have a claim to the job into the mix in 2010? Or asked another way: When will Tashard Choice get his chance?

Choice is brought up time and time again by those who follow this team, and with tremendous reason. When he gets the chance he has proven to be more than capable. His 5.5 yards per attempt last year were over a full yard-per-carry more than Barber (Felix Jones was the true home-run hitter at 5.9). He is now entering year 3 for the Cowboys and it is quickly becoming that time of a man's career where a team must decide whether he is a nice utility man or a possible full time RB.

Interesting in this entire discussion is what seems like a consensus throughout the land that Felix Jones must be managed carefully. Never the full time back at Arkansas or Dallas, it is all but assumed that his injury issues would only get worse if the Cowboys decided to increase his work load too much. Having already missed 12 games in 2 seasons, most are pretty comfortable knowing Jones will be brilliant - but in smaller doses.

So, I am asked quite frequently why the Cowboys don't allow Choice a real consideration to take over the #1 spot from Barber. Isn't 5.5 a carry much better than 4.4? And wouldn't Choice absolutely love the opportunity? And, as I was asked on Twitter this weekend, doesn't the fact that I like things the way they are all but prove I don't like Choice?

Allow me to explain.

The Cowboys are not worried about furthering Choice's personal agenda - nor should they be; rather, they have a roster to build and 16 intense battles to fight. They must make sure all of the pieces fit.

The question in the NFL is not necessarily who is the best to do each job. The question is often, "do I have enough guys on this team that can do enough different things?" Right now, Dallas has 3 different guys who can take the ball on 1st and 10 and do a reasonable NFL job of carrying the mail. Maybe not 22 times a game for an entire season, but whether Choice, Barber, or Jones is out there to start the game, the Cowboys are well covered.

But, there are 2 places where the Cowboys use Choice and would rather not use Jones or Barber much:

1) - 3rd Down/2-min Drill back - When the Cowboys go to their 3rd Down package (which I will refer to as "S11" this season as it is Shotgun with "11" Personnel - 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) they have become a team that prefers Tashard more and more. This is for a number of reasons. He reads the blitzes very well. And, he can block them with success. By the way, it should be noted that across the league in has become common logic that the "full-time" RB should not handle 3rd Downs. Not because he isn't capable. But rather the punishment that is sustained on blitz pick up is adding to the wear and tear on a player's body. If you have 20 carries and then 8-10 collisions with Linebackers and Safeties in pass protection then we can safely say that is the same as 30 carries. The NFL is all about managing their players so they can keep them on the field. So, if the big money RB is going to be involved in a collision, they want it to be with the ball in his hands as often as possible - not in blocking.

Choice also catches the ball well and runs the shotgun run plays with great burst and generates reasonable success. How many snaps a game would you guess constitute this responsibility? Assuming the Cowboys run between 60 and 64 offensive plays a game, I would guess that puts Choice on the field in that scenario 25 times (adding 3rd Downs and the 2-minute offense which uses the 3rd Down package).

2) - Special Teams - It has been a long time since Barber returned kicks. As 2009 came to a close, it seemed that the Cowboys knew that Felix Jones was losing his inspiration on kick returns. He just wasn't hitting the holes with the same reckless abandon that he was when he was a healthy rookie. But regardless of Jones future as a kick returner, that is the only way he would serve your special teams. Barber won't ever touch the field on special teams either. So, do you think the Cowboys want to employ 3 Running Backs who don't assist in special teams at all? That would be crazy in the day of 45-man game day rosters to not have 1 of them helping out with Joe DeCamillis' crew. Choice will be part of punt coverage this season again and if needed, he can easily be inserted in punt return and kick coverage.

For fun, you should print up the Cowboys current depth chart and do what the coaching staff has to do to insure that their special teams are special. Deactivate 8 names off the 53 for game day scratches to get to 45. Then, eliminate the 20 names of starters and high-salary guys who you don't put on the field for special teams. Then, subtract all of the Quarterbacks, Kickers, and Punters who are not candidates to be part of your kickoff or punt cover/return teams (and no, I don't think David Buehler can do it anymore since he kicks Field Goals now). What you are left with is about 20 names for all of your special teams.

Then, make sure you have enough speed to track down DeSean Jackson or someone like him on a punt return, because one special teams play can decide a game. This is why you need Tashard Choice (and guys like Sam Hurd make your team in the first place) on special teams. Because if you try to fill your coverage units with nothing but fullbacks, tight ends, and linebackers, you are going to give up huge plays. Speed kills.

So, in 2010, Tashard is a victim of being too versatile and too useful. He is basically not a candidate to be your #1 RB because then nobody else could be your #3 (this may be tough to understand to some in the stands, but it would be pretty awkward to demote Barber and ask him to start covering punts at this stage of his career). Choice is needed as your primary 3rd Down back and a special teams stud. He is also needed because we know that Barber and Jones don't play 16 games. In 2011, the Cowboys may say goodbye to Barber, promote Choice, and bring in a young 22 year old who can run with the special teams.

But, for now, I think the Cowboys are doing this right.

EPL Fun Bag - Week 5

To all my precious newbies following the World Soccer stage for the 1st time, there are some things you are going to have to get used to over time; and one of them is about to smack you in the face. More on that in a bit.

1st, let's visit about Weekend #3 in the EPL, and as our 38-round event is just approaching the 10% barrier, we see that the "Next big club" Manchester City was served up a dose of reality. You see, in one of the toughest sporting competitions on our planet, you can't buy silverware (although you can come mighty close).

Manchester City has spent some $200m in summer transfer fees to a team already money-whipping the competition to death. They have the best team money can buy and after they buried Liverpool 3-0, plans were being made for placement of the new trophies.

But, as we all know about the EPL, it isn't the showdown games that cost you championships. It is traveling to weaker sides' grounds and playing a difficult road match against a team that will put 11 players behind the ball and attempt to frustrate you to death.

Can you survive and advance? Or will you implode and rue the day and the loss of 3 valuable points as you try to keep up with Chelsea and Man United?

On Sunday, Man City visited Sunderland, who in the last decade have been promoted to the EPL 3 times, and relegated twice. In fact, they set a record (that you don't want to own) last time they were in the top flight by only totaling 15 points in a season on their way to relegation. Roy Keane, yes, that Roy Keane, managed them right back up into the Premiership last season and they finished 13th in '09-10. And playing at some of these road venues has proven quite difficult for the league's heavyweights (little Birmingham City is unbeaten in 16 straight at home!) and at Sunderland's Stadium of Light, many teams have left disappointed.

And here is the moment Man City will want back - Carlos Tevez missing a goal you could have scored:



And, in games where 1 goal makes the difference, if you miss one like Tevez did, chances are that Sunderland is going to get a chance to put you to the sword late. Would they call the Penalty on a tackle in stoppage time? Yes. They. did.



I found this awesome cell-phone account of the Bent PK and thought you should see it:



So Man City drop 5 points behind Chelsea. And yes, they already start talking about that in August. Get used to it.

In other news:

- Aston Villa and Everton played a very exciting match on Sunday on Fox Soccer Channel in brilliant High Definition from Villa Park. In a battle of USA goalkeepers, Brad Friedel outlasted TIm Howard. Great action, but man, Everton sure makes things difficult on themselves by playing so poorly early in the season.

- Chelsea and Man United march on; Arsenal survive at Blackburn with more Theo Walcott heroics.

- Fernando Torres rescued a garbage Liverpool effort at home against West Brom. 1-0? Seriously. We are that bad. But, Torres is that good. Practice this effort:



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OK. Now the bad news that many of you will not understand/believe. It is already time for a break. One of many "international breaks" that you will see during this 9 month season. You see, international soccer is as important or more important than club soccer all over the world. And between World Cups there are other competitions and qualifications that are also going on. The best players get no breaks, but rather are flying all over the world to represent their country and then hurrying back to their club to resume play.

Imagine this in any other sport. The NBA has their players playing for club and country - but not in the same week! Dirk doesn't play for the Mavericks on Sunday, Germany on Wed and Saturday, and then hurry back to the Mavs for a game on Tuesday. But, anyone who is anyone in the EPL does exactly that.

And you have injuries all of the time in these scenarios. Last year, Fernando Torres missed big time for Liverpool because of a knock he sustained with Spain. It is part of the fun. That is why each club needs massive depth - not massive debt. Thanks, Tom Hicks.

Anyway, this week it is all about Euro 2012 Qualification. So, if you wish, Here is England's Schedule for its national team:

Sep 3, 2010 2:00pm England vs Bulgaria FSC UEFA Euro 2012 Qualifying
Sep 7, 2010 1:45pm Switzerland vs England ESPN3.com UEFA Euro 2012 Qualifying

Full Schedule: (keep in mind they list day/month/year when they do dates in the UK)

England Euro 2012 qualifying fixture dates:

3/9/10 England v Bulgaria

7/9/10 Switzerland v England

12/10/10 England v Montenegro

26/3/11 Wales v England

4/6/11 England v Switzerland

2/9/11 Bulgaria v England

6/9/11 England v Wales

7/10/11 Montenegro v England

By the way, every major soccer league in the world suspends play during these international windows....except MLS. They march on without their Dirk, Kobe, and LeBron in league matches. This is beyond insane and should be stopped immediately, but I am not here to list my 100 problems with MLS right now.

The US National Team does not play until October when it has some friendlies scheduled under Bob Bradley:

Oct. 9, 2010 U.S. Men vs. Poland 7 p.m. CT Soldier Field Fox Soccer Channel & Galavision
Oct. 12, 2010 U.S. Men vs. Colombia 8 p.m. ET Chester, Pa. ESPN2 & Galavision

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Because I am short on time this week, I will only allow 1 email from Craig "Junior Spank" Miller:


Re: Arsenal

They have the longest current tenure in the first division—by 35 years (over second place Everton)? Wow. Pretty amazing, no?

And—Tottenham is in North London. Tottenham FC would make sense to me. But what the hell is Hotspur—just a nickname?

Craig
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Yes, Craig - Arsenal is the longest-tenured EPL team by a long, long way. According to my research resource Wikipedia , here is the list for when each of the 20 teams joined the big flight:

Longest Time In the English Top Flight

Well, an unsurpassed stint in the Top Flight covering the entire Post War period, not to mention the entire time Between Wars!
1. Arsenal (1919/20)

2. Everton (1954/55)
3. Liverpool (1962/63)

Children of the 1970s, Spurs & Devils!

4. Manchester United (1974/75)
5. Tottenham Hotspurs (1978/79)

Children of Thatcher -

6. Aston Villa (1988/89)
7. Chelsea (1989/90)

Everyone Else:

8. Fulham (2001/02)
9. Blackburn Rovrs (2001/02)
10. Bolton Wanderers (2001/02)

11. Manchester City (2002/03)
12. West Ham United (2005/06)
13. Wigan Athletic (2005/06)
14. Sunderland (2007/08)
15. Stoke City (2008/09)

16. Birmingham City (2009/10)
17. Wolverhampton (2009/10)
18. West Brom (2010/11)
19. Newcastle (2010/11)
20. Blackpool (2010/11)

Isn't it amazing that only 7 teams have been in the top flight more than 10 seasons straight? It is tough to stay up here once you get here. This is why teams aren't worried about finishing 1st. They are worried about finishing at least 17th.

And, why is Tottenham Hotspur called that?

Again, from Wiki:

Since the 1901 FA Cup final the Tottenham Hotspur crest has featured a gamecock. Harry Hotspur (from whom the club is said to take its name) was famed for his riding spurs and his fighting cocks were fitted with spurs which can be seen in the crests.[11] In 1909 a former player named William James Scott made a bronze cast of a cockerel standing on a football to be placed on top of the West Stand and since then the cockerel and ball have been the major part of the club's identity.

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I leave you with this unorthodox goal celebration:



See you in 2 weeks, next time we have EPL to discuss!