OL Makes Cowboys Contender For Years To Come

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2017/09/06/cowboys-nfc-power-appear-set-good-years-come

If someone wished to dwell on the absolute best-case scenarios for the 2017 Dallas Cowboys season, the focal point of that exercise should begin with the unit that controls the entire operation.  Hopefully, by now, they need no introduction.

Because by now, the Dallas Cowboys mammoth and dominant offense line has pushed aside nearly every challenge that has been brought before them in their three seasons since placing the three All-Pros together.  Tyron Smith enters his 7^th year in the league now since being selected 1^st in 2011.  Travis Frederick starts his 5^th and Zack Martin his 4^th.  During the trio’s time as a unit, the Cowboys have run for more yards overall (6,640), more yards per carry (4.69), more yards per game (138.3), and more big runs of over 10 yards (184) than any other team in the sport.  This, despite switching out starting running backs from DeMarco Murray to Joseph Randle to Darren McFadden to Ezekiel Elliott during those 3 seasons from 2014-2016. 

During that same three year stretch, they have ranked 7^th in fewest sacks allowed, 5^th in yards per pass attempt, and 8^th in overall passer rating.  Those numbers may not knock your socks off relative to all of the 1^st place finishes in run production, but perhaps it should because unlike the teams ranked above them, the Cowboys have switched out starting QBs during that 3 year period more than almost anyone.  From Tony Romo to Brandon Weeden to Matt Cassel to Kellen Moore to Dak Prescott is much different than the top passing teams who have only had 1 QB or at the most 2 during that stretch.  Yet, the Cowboys, with 5 different starting QBs, have top 10 rankings over the 3-year sample of Smith-Frederick-Martin in front of them. 

The team has literally switched out its leading rusher and leading passer each season during this 3-year stretch at an expansion-team level of inconsistency, and yet the offense’s 3-year numbers are all in the Top 10.  The also have won 29 games in those 3 seasons and run off a 29-19 regular season record – something else you won’t see from teams with a different RB/QB duo for all 3 years.  And it isn’t because it gets to play with an overpowering defense, is it? 

It has been pointed out a number of times in a number of places that the Cowboys Offensive Line building plan was partly about the obsession with remembering the dominant OL of the early 1990’s Dallas-dynasty and partly about the luck of how the NFL Draft fell to them each year.  The team could have taken JJ Watt over Tyron Smith, could have taken a gem defender over Frederick and wanted to take Ryan Shazier and their GM really wanted Johnny Manziel over Martin.  Sometimes, the best picks you take are the ones you don’t because your son wrestles the card out of your hand. 

Regardless of the original and grand design, the reality is simple.  This team is a power in the NFC because they have an offensive line that makes everyone look better and has proven they can succeed with almost anyone having the ball behind them.  It is a repeatable and sustainable style of play that makes a RB’s and a QB’s job much simpler than any other place in the league.  They also have mastered a style of play that is unlike almost any other of the powers in the NFL, so the uniqueness gives them another advantage as most defenses load up to stop the many aerial attacks they must face.  Then the ground-and-pound Cowboys show up on the schedule and sweat forms on the undersized brows of the opponents.

The Cowboys are going to be very good again this year and for what appears to be many years to come.  Why?  It is obvious.  This offensive line is phenomenal and the oldest of the bunch is merely 26 years old. 

The Morning After - Beating Down The Bears

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2016/09/26/sturms-morning-exactly-needed-beat-hapless-bears

The Dallas Cowboys have accomplished something that has proven to be next to impossible for the organization in the Tony Romo era.  They have won consecutive games without him. 

This is not because they have not been afforded the opportunity.  They actually have had this chance on many, many occasions.  Romo's fatal flaw has been his ability to stay fit, and while there are actually people that argue that this is some sort of "media creation", the fact is that Romo has not been able to make every start since 2012 and just four times in his ten full seasons at the helm. 

That is why you would think that the organization would have taken this "QB2" role about as seriously as anyone during that stretch.  They needed help in 2008 (3 games), 2010 (11 games), 2013 (one, but arguably the one that mattered most), 2014 (2 games), 2015 (parts of 14 different games), and now the first 6 weeks or so in 2016. 

They have had plenty of convincing pieces of evidence that they may wish to invest more heavily in this insurance policy, but to be fair to the team, there are more than a few organizations that can't even find a starting QB.  It clearly is a position in sports where the demand far outweighs the supply.  Instead of purchasing insurance, they hoped that Romo could just stay healthy.

All of the gnashing of teeth on this topic has continued through August of 2016.  In fact, on the day Kellen Moore was injured (August 2, 2016), I offered these - now foolish-looking - thoughts about the young man who has become the Cowboys new hope: I want Dak Prescott to accomplish great things here.  But, based on his college tape and even a few practices in Oxnard, I think it is safe to say we are talking a few years - not a few weeks - before he is prepared to play meaningful snaps around here.  He has tons of interesting components to his game, but the adjustments to NFL speeds and sizes will be a hurdle for him, and his accuracy will need to be improved.  We knew that.  That is why he lasted so long in the draft.  He was not picked for 2016.

I believed that then and I even went on to suggest Jameill Showers had some interesting upside that the team may now want to consider. 

Regardless, 54 days seems like a lifetime.  Not only are the Cowboys winning with Dak Prescott as their quarterback, you can pretty easily make the argument that they are winning because of him. 

And that is a rare accomplishment.  Despite the fact Romo has given them well over 30 chances to play without him, this is only the second time during that stretch that they posted back-to-back wins.  The first time came in the first two games that Jason Garrett was the head coach of the Cowboys -- back in 2010 when they won his debut at Giants Stadium with Jon Kitna (in a game remembered for SMU's Bryan McCann returning an interception 101 yards), and then rolled the Detroit Lions the next week back at home (in a game remembered for SMU's Bryan McCann returning a punt 97 yards for a touchdown).  Oh, you don't remember our guy, McCann?  Well, it is true.  All of it.

Now, back to this 2016 version, which is out of the gate at a very acceptable 2-1.  You might suggest they haven't played the heavyweights on their schedule, but I will remind you that this year's schedule is not going to resemble 2015.  There is no visit scheduled from both Super Bowl teams from the previous year (New England and Seattle) and even one from the upcoming version (Carolina).  Instead, if the Cowboys simply beat the teams that come in here without just a whole lot going for them, they will be in the middle of this battle all year. 

The bigger question is how far a rookie QB and RB tandem can take them.  It may just be a few more weeks, but there are already quotes out there from the owner and general manager that are starting to suggest that they don't have to "rush Romo back", which is quite clearly something that contributed to his second collarbone injury in 2015.

The amazing thing about this Prescott era is the way the team gets ahead.  They score early and often and this is now a run that seems to describe every time Prescott has taken the field for the Cowboys -- all the way back to preseason.  But, let's just focus on the games that count for now.  In Week 1 against the Giants, the Cowboys scored on their first four possessions, and five of the first six.  The problem that day was that too many were Dan Bailey kicks and only one touchdown.

Then at Washington in Week 2, it was four of the first five.  Two touchdowns and two field goals, but the team gets to 20 points very early in the third quarter, on their way to 27. 

But against a Chicago team that we can pencil in for a top 10 pick in next April's draft, the Cowboys took the ball four times in the first half, all inside their own 28 yard line, and drove right down the field four times.  They put up 24 points in that first half, with 274 yards of total offense, and put the game pretty much to bed right there with a 24-3 intermission lead.  The yardage was split evenly between running and passing and Prescott had rolled up a 105 QB rating while Ezekiel Elliott was handed the ball 13 times at about 6 yards a carry.    They owned the ball for 22 of the 30 minutes and had completely dominated the game in every respect. 

In other words, when everyone squinted about what Tony Romo and Elliott could accomplish on draft night, they couldn't have dreamed much better results than what these first three games have yielded with a rookie, backup QB.    

Now, there is plenty more to consider about last night.  Not the least of which was this team starting to deal with some health considerations (beyond Romo).  They had to play last night without Tyron Smith, which is something I would prefer to avoid moving forward.  Smith has been banged up this season, but last night was listed as an illness rather than the back/neck issues he has been dealing with.  Regardless, that is potentially big. Then, the moment on the second play of the game where it sure looked like Dez Bryant really hurt his knee again should be watched.  He finished the game, but he needs to be in top form to have his top explosiveness.  La'el Collins left the game, as well, which reminded people why Ron Leary is a wonderful insurance policy.  After a few years of offensive line health, they need to expect to deal with some level of "normal" issues up front, and they are prepared to do so.  Chaz Green gives me no confidence after his brutal preseason, but they survived last night with just a few moments to clean up around an otherwise serviceable performance at first glance.

Defensively, it was the third consecutive week of getting a takeaway.  This sounds like a rather small deal until you remember we are talking about a Dallas defense that tied an all-time NFL record last year for fewest takeaways with 11.  In fact, now that they got the ball twice last night from the Bears, that gives them four takeaways in three games.  Not on pace to shatter records, but at least on pace to get close to the NFL average (22.5).     

Last night, they caused a few fumbles and came up with them and in the first two weeks it was interceptions.   We know the limitations of this defense, but, if they can just go get the ball a few times, they will survive most weeks.  Four takeaways don't impress you?  Well, in 2015, they got their fourth takeaway on November 1.  It is awfully difficult to blame the backup QBs for what your defense was unable to do, so this improvement needs to be maintained moving forward.  Cosmetically, the Bears put up plenty of garbage time yardage, but when the game was in doubt, they never got anything going to cause too much consternation. 

The Cowboys are moving the ball, controlling the clock, and winning the turnover battle. Plus-2 this year through three games is progress from a team that a ridiculously bad minus-22 last season.  If you can't move the ball, at least take care of it.  This year, they are doing both.

Like we said in training camp, the September schedule was pretty easy, comparatively speaking.  They had to find 2 or 3 wins in September to have a chance, and now they can get to 3-1 with a win in San Francisco.  Nobody in the league is going to spend an hour praising Dallas for its start as other teams are more impressive.  That team in Philadelphia also has a rookie QB (who they paid handsomely for) who appears to be the real deal and their paths will cross in a month or so. 

Sunday night was exactly what it needed to be.  A convincing win that showed even without Romo, this team is plenty talented and dangerous to a certain opponent.  Take your gains and get your hurt a chance to recover before the next battle in a week. 

This first stretch has certainly offered the argument that the 2016 draft has a chance to be something historic around here.  We expected Elliott to be great.  But, Prescott's start?  As I demonstrated above, this exceeds my wildest expectations.  I imagine most of you are in that same boat.

Keep it going, kid.  

Grading Week 3

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2016/09/25/grading-cowboys-offense-thrives-must-win-game-bears

Sportsradio 1310 The Ticket host Bob Sturm grades the Dallas Cowboys in their win over the Chicago Bears on Sunday night.

OFFENSE: A- 

This offense rolled up a massive day that easily went over 400 yards, converted a majority of 3rd downs, and punched every last red-zone drive into the end zone for a touchdown. Dak Prescott was again solid through the air, and now the offensive line and Ezekiel Elliott was able to survive a night without Tyron Smith yet still ground and pound throughout the evening, averaging about five yards per carry. If not for a missed field goal and a fumble by Terrance Williams, it is reasonable to assume this offense was going to put up 40 points - without Tony Romo and with relative ease.

DEFENSE: C+ 

The effectiveness of the defense is often dependent on what you are asked to do and who you are required to stop. On this occasion, they were seldom stressed by the hapless Bears attack, which, given the lack of a consistent pass rush, was probably fortunate. The defensive secondary (without Orlando Scandrick) had a very solid game with several broken up passes. They simply must get their pass rush going, but the work against the run and on third down was quite good and they found two vital takeaways. They certainly were satisfactory, surrendering some cosmetic yardage but remaining rather untested overall on the evening.

COACHING: B 

 Overall, the Cowboys were in total control from an offensive standpoint, and this must be credited to the coaching staff for successfully integrating a rookie QB and a rookie RB into what looks like a very competitive group. The scheme is altered from a Romo playbook, and they have put Prescott in a position to be successful. They called a game that followed the blueprint of eating the clock while moving the chains. Defensively, they were not going to gamble against Brian Hoyer and a Chicago offense that lacked any sort of confidence or swagger. It was the proper game plan that was well executed.

OVERALL: B 

 This was a game that absolutely needed to go into the win column for this team to remain competitive when Romo can return. They were big favorites against a battered opponent and had to establish the ability to win at home. Not only did they do all of that, but they made it look very easy again, putting the Bears well behind in the second quarter. They seem to have found some rhythm and continuity, and they will only gain more confidence heading into San Francisco to play another team that appears beatable. There were a lot of solid signs from this outing.

DMN - Mailbag Sept 23 -

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2016/09/23/sturms-weekly-cowboys-mailbag-demarcus-lawrence-mo-claiborne-plenty-tony-romo

Let's do a mailbag!

Before we start, a thought on the Bears. I spent a few hours on them last night and cannot remember a less interesting roster than what Chicago has right now. Yes, they are beat up already, but even at full strength, you are trying to talk yourself into the concept of them being good -- rather than the reality.

In other words, you cannot lose to these guys on Sunday. There are must-win games, and then there are "you will regret this the rest of the year if you let this bunch take a win out of your building" games.

You really should pound them. And I realize the Cowboys are flawed. But, man, Chicago has a ways to go before they get out of picking in the top 10 in the draft.  

On to the questions:

Q:  Why do you think the Cowboys can't win at home? Jerry didn't buy a 1.3 billion dollar playpen for losses, I have to think...

This is in reference to what I wrote yesterday about the Cowboys issues with winning at AT&T Stadium and how it gets turned around.

People wanted solutions and I did not present many because there are no real trends that stick out. Obviously, Tony Romo's attendance record is at the heart of the issue. But then again, that seems like barking at the moon. If the solution to everything is "keep Tony Romo healthy," then we are all wasting a lot of time analyzing the team and, also, maybe quarterback wins are real stats.

Also, Cowboys backup quarterbacks have won games on the road and not at home (for whatever reason), which is a bit more difficult to explain, but the past two trips to Washington were wins by Matt Cassel and Dak Prescott (the only win either of them has ever engineered, so far -- although I bet Prescott gets his first home win on Sunday).

To be honest, it seems to me that there is a real aggressiveness element to the whole story. I think they play to win on the road more often than they do at home, but that requires a fair amount of looking at statistics from a slanted point of view. What I mean is that most play-calling is situation-dependent, therefore, to look at yards or run/pass ratios and offer conclusions can be dangerous.

Romo's record at home since 2009 is 25-18 in the regular season. That is well above 47 percent. In fact, it is above 58 percent. And he is 26-19 on the road since 2009. That is 57 percent. Pretty much identical in either place. So, it might all come down to the backups being 2-12 at home and 5-7 on the road to explain the home form versus the road form. And Romo's body.

Q: Has Jason Garrett turned the corner from being a conservative coach to a gambler or was last week just an exception?

The coaching staff did some very interesting things last week that made us think they are done frustrating us with their extreme conservatism. That includes the incredibly uncharacteristic onside-kick ambush in the third quarter. The man who gave us "you don't lay up at the Masters" has not always lived his quote.  

But, I will file this under the "I will need to see more to call this a trend" heading until we see him coaching ruthlessly more often. I think Rod Marinelli also is a guy who fits Garrett's sensibilities very well and we know Scott Linehan does. Let's continue to monitor and home that Coach Conservative breaks his mold, but unfortunately, he is becoming an older dog here in Year 7.

Q: I know everybody is hyping up Morris Claiborne to having this great year but he doesn't have any interceptions and hasn't jumped off the screen much... You think he's doing as good as everybody says?

I think Mo Claiborne is playing some solid football. Not perfect, but much better than what we have seen. He just needs to stay on the field. He has to play. He just has never played as much as he needs to and cornerbacks are all about snap counts. They have to stay on the field or their value is zero.

Look at the snap count difference between Claiborne and Brandon Carr. They both got here in 2012, so they have both had the same number of available snaps. Carr has been in 4,305 plays (all of them) and Claiborne has played in 2,319. That is roughly 54 percent of Carr's total. I have always defended Carr and never defended Claiborne based on this simple idea. Carr may not pick off enough passes and stop enough plays, but he battles and battles for three hours every Sunday. Claiborne has not proven he can be counted upon.

So, we never get to a technique discussion. One is present and one is not. That is why I don't get carried away when Claiborne plays two good games. Call me when he plays a full season (at any level of quality) to prove he is worthy of a monetary investment moving forward.

Q: Is this defensive line good enough to where when Demarcus Lawrence comes back in a couple weeks, he takes it to a decent level or is it a lost cause?

I made the claim in August that DeMarcus Lawrence is going to come back in Week 5 and still get eight sacks. I am that impressed with his progress and how he looked in camp. This may look silly in three months, but it is what I believe. I think he is terrific and I think he will make a significant difference. That said, they may also want to take their resources in the next draft and another blue-chip edge rusher, because they appear to be short on some talent.

Q: At what point do you give up on Terrance Williams and give Brice Butler a shot? He cost us the first game then disappeared in the second!

I think there is a sign they are headed that way. The weird issue is that they are both pretty much the same age and both in the final year of their deals.

But they need one of the two to step into the Alvin Harper role this year and be the deep threat. They can both do it -- Williams has done it way more -- but the underneath stuff and Dez are squared away. Now they need the big-play guy on the other side for the two or three shots a game. That is the one thing we have not seen yet -- the up-top shot to WR2.

Now, the other thing that showed up Sunday is the S01 package. This has no running backs, one tight end and four wide receivers. This includes both Butler and Williams with Bryant and Beasley. I think it was primarily a second-down look and something that really spreads out the defense. Let's see if they go back to that this week.

Q: Do you think fumbling is an issue that can be corrected in a weeks time or does it progressively get better? Will it be an issue for Zeke against Chicago?

Ezekiel Elliott has no fumble history. I don't think it is the start of one, but you can expect that his next several opponents are going to challenge him now that he has shown it can be stripped. He needs a good game soon or the criticism will increase. The Cowboys were promised the moon with this kid and the first month has not been that.

Q: Scandrick seems to be hurt again, will he ever be back to being the guy that got that big deal or is that too much to ask? ...

Q: Anthony Brown had a pick 6 in preseason, how confident are you in his ability to go out and fill in Scandrick's shoes?

Sort of the same topic here, so let's combine these. Orlando Scandrick has meant a lot to this group, so there is no doubt there is concern about how "right" he is right now. And the prospect of a sixth-rounder just stepping in and filling his shoes seems a bit crazy. I might consider sitting Scandrick for a few weeks to get him healthy if that is the issue. Chicago-San Francisco is the time to do that, because the slot threats are coming afterward.

I like Anthony Brown, but he is several levels down from Scandrick for now. Let's continue to monitor the progress of both players as we go.

Q: What's going on with Rolando McClain, did we ever let him go? and why haven't we let go of Randy Gregory yet?

I don't think we ever see McClain again. I think this is more of a sensitive substance issue that is likely just going to be a headline one day in the random future and that will be that. Gregory is a bit more vague and I won't pretend to have any idea, other than his issues have proven to be far more complex than they imagined when they spent a second-rounder on him.

Q: Do you anticipate the new guy we signed, Ryan Davis, to be active this week and is he a good player that will make a difference?

I do. And given how they played four defensive tackles at the end of the game, I would think he should be able to make some difference. As decent as the D-line looked in that game for me, I will say that I hoped for more in the first few weeks from offseason signings Benson Mayowa and Cedric Thornton. On one hand, the Cowboys are shorthanded and need help, but then the new guys can't get on the field, either? It is all a bit confusing from a personnel standpoint, although I know they are working around Tyrone Crawford and Terrell McClain's performances. Also, Maliek Collins is starting to pop.

Q: Set aside Romo's health and ability to make it through an NFL game/season. Even if he is healthy when he comes back, how rusty is he going to be? He has not played much football in the last 2 years, so I would imagine he will be really rusty for at least a few games. Is the last game he played really well the playoff game in Green Bay?

I am not worried about rust, but I am worried about the first few big hits he takes. I assume so is everyone else. He has been knocked out on about three of the past five big hits he has taken. That won't work in the NFL, where every quarterback gets hit hard twice a game. I think he will be mentally sharp, but I also don't believe the body has many big shots left to handle.

Q: Have we seen enough to know that Prescott's likely floor is an average NFL quarterback? I know sometimes the great ones can struggle early. But are there examples of QBs who have gotten off to a good/great start only to end up failing? (Only QB I can think of in that category is RGIII....)

I did not take the time to find similar cases, but I think Dak Prescott can start in this league. I have already seen plenty to indicate he is a very worthy prospect moving forward, even if Romo does regain his spot for the future.

But, I imagine, things may get interesting around here at the quarterback position in the next several months.Let's do a mailbag!

Before we start, a thought on the Bears. I spent a few hours on them last night and cannot remember a less interesting roster than what Chicago has right now. Yes, they are beat up already, but even at full strength, you are trying to talk yourself into the concept of them being good -- rather than the reality.

In other words, you cannot lose to these guys on Sunday. There are must-win games, and then there are "you will regret this the rest of the year if you let this bunch take a win out of your building" games.

You really should pound them. And I realize the Cowboys are flawed. But, man, Chicago has a ways to go before they get out of picking in the top 10 in the draft.  

On to the questions:

Q:  Why do you think the Cowboys can't win at home? Jerry didn't buy a 1.3 billion dollar playpen for losses, I have to think...

This is in reference to what I wrote yesterday about the Cowboys issues with winning at AT&T Stadium and how it gets turned around.

People wanted solutions and I did not present many because there are no real trends that stick out. Obviously, Tony Romo's attendance record is at the heart of the issue. But then again, that seems like barking at the moon. If the solution to everything is "keep Tony Romo healthy," then we are all wasting a lot of time analyzing the team and, also, maybe quarterback wins are real stats.

Also, Cowboys backup quarterbacks have won games on the road and not at home (for whatever reason), which is a bit more difficult to explain, but the past two trips to Washington were wins by Matt Cassel and Dak Prescott (the only win either of them has ever engineered, so far -- although I bet Prescott gets his first home win on Sunday).

To be honest, it seems to me that there is a real aggressiveness element to the whole story. I think they play to win on the road more often than they do at home, but that requires a fair amount of looking at statistics from a slanted point of view. What I mean is that most play-calling is situation-dependent, therefore, to look at yards or run/pass ratios and offer conclusions can be dangerous.

Romo's record at home since 2009 is 25-18 in the regular season. That is well above 47 percent. In fact, it is above 58 percent. And he is 26-19 on the road since 2009. That is 57 percent. Pretty much identical in either place. So, it might all come down to the backups being 2-12 at home and 5-7 on the road to explain the home form versus the road form. And Romo's body.

Q: Has Jason Garrett turned the corner from being a conservative coach to a gambler or was last week just an exception?

The coaching staff did some very interesting things last week that made us think they are done frustrating us with their extreme conservatism. That includes the incredibly uncharacteristic onside-kick ambush in the third quarter. The man who gave us "you don't lay up at the Masters" has not always lived his quote.  

But, I will file this under the "I will need to see more to call this a trend" heading until we see him coaching ruthlessly more often. I think Rod Marinelli also is a guy who fits Garrett's sensibilities very well and we know Scott Linehan does. Let's continue to monitor and home that Coach Conservative breaks his mold, but unfortunately, he is becoming an older dog here in Year 7.

Q: I know everybody is hyping up Morris Claiborne to having this great year but he doesn't have any interceptions and hasn't jumped off the screen much... You think he's doing as good as everybody says?

I think Mo Claiborne is playing some solid football. Not perfect, but much better than what we have seen. He just needs to stay on the field. He has to play. He just has never played as much as he needs to and cornerbacks are all about snap counts. They have to stay on the field or their value is zero.

Look at the snap count difference between Claiborne and Brandon Carr. They both got here in 2012, so they have both had the same number of available snaps. Carr has been in 4,305 plays (all of them) and Claiborne has played in 2,319. That is roughly 54 percent of Carr's total. I have always defended Carr and never defended Claiborne based on this simple idea. Carr may not pick off enough passes and stop enough plays, but he battles and battles for three hours every Sunday. Claiborne has not proven he can be counted upon.

So, we never get to a technique discussion. One is present and one is not. That is why I don't get carried away when Claiborne plays two good games. Call me when he plays a full season (at any level of quality) to prove he is worthy of a monetary investment moving forward.

Q: Is this defensive line good enough to where when Demarcus Lawrence comes back in a couple weeks, he takes it to a decent level or is it a lost cause?

I made the claim in August that DeMarcus Lawrence is going to come back in Week 5 and still get eight sacks. I am that impressed with his progress and how he looked in camp. This may look silly in three months, but it is what I believe. I think he is terrific and I think he will make a significant difference. That said, they may also want to take their resources in the next draft and another blue-chip edge rusher, because they appear to be short on some talent.

Q: At what point do you give up on Terrance Williams and give Brice Butler a shot? He cost us the first game then disappeared in the second!

I think there is a sign they are headed that way. The weird issue is that they are both pretty much the same age and both in the final year of their deals.

But they need one of the two to step into the Alvin Harper role this year and be the deep threat. They can both do it -- Williams has done it way more -- but the underneath stuff and Dez are squared away. Now they need the big-play guy on the other side for the two or three shots a game. That is the one thing we have not seen yet -- the up-top shot to WR2.

Now, the other thing that showed up Sunday is the S01 package. This has no running backs, one tight end and four wide receivers. This includes both Butler and Williams with Bryant and Beasley. I think it was primarily a second-down look and something that really spreads out the defense. Let's see if they go back to that this week.

Q: Do you think fumbling is an issue that can be corrected in a weeks time or does it progressively get better? Will it be an issue for Zeke against Chicago?

Ezekiel Elliott has no fumble history. I don't think it is the start of one, but you can expect that his next several opponents are going to challenge him now that he has shown it can be stripped. He needs a good game soon or the criticism will increase. The Cowboys were promised the moon with this kid and the first month has not been that.

Q: Scandrick seems to be hurt again, will he ever be back to being the guy that got that big deal or is that too much to ask? ...

Q: Anthony Brown had a pick 6 in preseason, how confident are you in his ability to go out and fill in Scandrick's shoes?

Sort of the same topic here, so let's combine these. Orlando Scandrick has meant a lot to this group, so there is no doubt there is concern about how "right" he is right now. And the prospect of a sixth-rounder just stepping in and filling his shoes seems a bit crazy. I might consider sitting Scandrick for a few weeks to get him healthy if that is the issue. Chicago-San Francisco is the time to do that, because the slot threats are coming afterward.

I like Anthony Brown, but he is several levels down from Scandrick for now. Let's continue to monitor the progress of both players as we go.

Q: What's going on with Rolando McClain, did we ever let him go? and why haven't we let go of Randy Gregory yet?

I don't think we ever see McClain again. I think this is more of a sensitive substance issue that is likely just going to be a headline one day in the random future and that will be that. Gregory is a bit more vague and I won't pretend to have any idea, other than his issues have proven to be far more complex than they imagined when they spent a second-rounder on him.

Q: Do you anticipate the new guy we signed, Ryan Davis, to be active this week and is he a good player that will make a difference?

I do. And given how they played four defensive tackles at the end of the game, I would think he should be able to make some difference. As decent as the D-line looked in that game for me, I will say that I hoped for more in the first few weeks from offseason signings Benson Mayowa and Cedric Thornton. On one hand, the Cowboys are shorthanded and need help, but then the new guys can't get on the field, either? It is all a bit confusing from a personnel standpoint, although I know they are working around Tyrone Crawford and Terrell McClain's performances. Also, Maliek Collins is starting to pop.

Q: Set aside Romo's health and ability to make it through an NFL game/season. Even if he is healthy when he comes back, how rusty is he going to be? He has not played much football in the last 2 years, so I would imagine he will be really rusty for at least a few games. Is the last game he played really well the playoff game in Green Bay?

I am not worried about rust, but I am worried about the first few big hits he takes. I assume so is everyone else. He has been knocked out on about three of the past five big hits he has taken. That won't work in the NFL, where every quarterback gets hit hard twice a game. I think he will be mentally sharp, but I also don't believe the body has many big shots left to handle.

Q: Have we seen enough to know that Prescott's likely floor is an average NFL quarterback? I know sometimes the great ones can struggle early. But are there examples of QBs who have gotten off to a good/great start only to end up failing? (Only QB I can think of in that category is RGIII....)

I did not take the time to find similar cases, but I think Dak Prescott can start in this league. I have already seen plenty to indicate he is a very worthy prospect moving forward, even if Romo does regain his spot for the future.

But, I imagine, things may get interesting around here at the quarterback position in the next several months.

The Cowboys True Home Field Disadvantage

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2016/09/22/sturm-cowboys-true-home-field-disadvantage

The Cowboys have a real problem in their path to becoming a better team and a more legitimate contender in the NFC. Well, they actually have several problems, but I believe this is the elephant in the room.

It's the stadium. The thing that visiting announcers declare to be the finest building that ever housed a football game.

That could very well be true. AT&T Stadium could be easy and enticing to visit, comfortable and convenient and all of those things. It has artwork, for crying out loud. What else could you ever want?

The problem is pretty obvious, really. The problem is that they are trying to be a contender in this league without a home-field advantage. Could you imagine what Seattle or Green Bay would be like if they did not reap the benefits of their home fields? Both are significantly better teams at home. I submit that is what we are looking at here with the Cowboys in their new (not so new, anymore) stadium. 

Of course, you are no doubt thinking that I write this today because of that little issue of the bright setting-sun blinding the Cowboys receivers at least two or three times late in the game in the season opener against the Giants. Oh, there is so much more evidence than that.

The Cowboys have now played 57 games at home and 57 games on the road since 2009 and are significantly better on the road (54% winning percentage) than they are at home (47%). In fact, the Cowboys have one of the better winning percentages of any team in the NFL on the road during that stretch. They trail only New England, Green Bay, Denver, and New Orleans during that period. Those are  all teams that have won Super Bowls in the last eight years (one of them in this very building). There is almost nothing wrong with the Cowboys ability to win away from Arlington.

The real problem exists at home. Here is the entire list of teams that have lost more home games than the Dallas Cowboys since this new stadium opened: Cleveland, Jacksonville, Los Angeles, Miami, Oakland, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, and Washington. Those teams have made the playoffs twice in that entire stretch -- both Washington.

In other words, they play like a heavyweight on the road and a powder-puff at home. Which, frankly, makes no sense.

Oh, there are theories that the stadium hypnotizes the fans into a state of quietness with the amazing big-screen HDTV or that the prices mean the fans who actually could impact the noise level are too high in those cheaper seats and therefore the affluent crowd down below offer no advantage at all. One of my beliefs is that the team is coached far more conservatively at home with decision-making and aggressiveness. I think I could present a case that they actually attack more on the road than they do in front of their faithful.

But, regardless of why, this must get sorted out quickly. You could try curtains, but you also might try tactical adjustments that attempt to turn this from a neutral field into a true advantageous home. 

What does it profit a football team to have the most beautiful stadium in the league, but to have one of the worst home field advantages inside it? Only three teams in the league have more road wins than home wins since 2009, and nobody has a bigger discrepancy in their form than the Cowboys.

Maybe the real solution is to ask the good voters of Arlington to build a better version with more home-field considerations in a few years.

DMN - Mailbag Sept 16 - Special Teams

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2016/09/16/sturms-cowboys-mailbag-special-teams-role-call-dak

On we go to Week 2, where the Cowboys are packing for a Noon kick in Washington.  Divisional games are all around the NFL as they have made it a point to start and end the season with these divisional battles.  It is enjoyable, for sure.  But, wow, if you lose both of them to the Giants and Redskins right off the bat, the stress level will go way up.

The Cowboys have slim margins throughout as they have to do many things right to emerge victorious.  I am not sure this is a team that can win too many weeks when they don't play very well.  They need, as their coach will say, to be solid in "all three phases."  Of all of the things he says, most don't shed much light on anything.  But, his acknowledgement about the special teams phase is vital is something I have always appreciated.  

Special teams are not that important - until they are.  And while that sounds silly, it is the margin for so many teams.  A few years ago, a mediocre 2014 Eagles team was able to disguise their mediocrity because their special teams were getting them so many points.  In the end, they were found out, but they rode that all the way into December that year.  Meanwhile, the 2010 San Diego Chargers were just the opposite:  A playoff team on offense and defense, but a few blocks here and there and the Chargers did not make the playoffs because their special teams unit cost them a few games.  In this league, you cannot spare a few games.  

That is why on certain mailbag days, I will supplement your content with a look at the various elements of the Cowboys Special Teams under their ST coach Rich Bisaccia.  Unlike college football, this requires all sorts of mental gymnastics, because NFL teams only have 46 available on game day.  When you deduct almost every starter from the choices, then deduct almost all of the linemen from the options, all of the QBs, and then all of the players that just aren't very good at running and tackling, Bisaccia has a list of about 15 players with which to build his 4 kick and cover teams.  Field Goal and Field Goal block teams can use linemen and it is easier, but covering and returning kicks require the end of your roster.  

The object of special teams is simple:  Don't be a catastrophe.  Every coach would accept league average.  Just don't get us beat.  Now, if you can find a great special teams, then your team might erase a lot of other weaknesses.  It could be a beautiful thing.

The Cowboys haven't really been particularly special on special teams since I have been tracking them, but they also have gone several years since they have been a real problem.

Today, I wanted to share a look at the kick teams.  Soon, I will do the same with the punt teams, but not today.

Here first, is the coverage team:

Safeties on the perimeter, Church has the position called "L1" and Wilcox is over on "R1".  Jones and Brown are L2 and R2 to keep speed on the edges, and then you start stacking linebackers and tight ends on the inside for L3, L4, L5 and R3, R4, R5.  Sometimes, they put safeties inside next to the kicker, too.  This time, Jeff Heath has L5.  Usually, the L5/R5 and L2/R2 are the first to arrive, with L1/R1 playing safety, and the 2nd wave behind the 1st, is L4/R4 and L3/R3.

Now, the return team:

Here is the kick return team.  We should point out that the NFL is slowly taking out the kickoff with rules that limit how often you actually need these teams, but for now, we proceed.  

The first line is often going to be linebackers/tight ends/full backs/safeties.  Then, the Cowboys like having a diamond behind the first line of five.  Behind the diamond are the last two, #45 Rod Smith will be the lead blocker for #13 Lucky Whitehead who is barely in the picture.  

These teams change constantly, due to injuries.  I imagine when the bullets are flying, Bisaccia is trying to keep his group intact, given that any injury on offense or defense could have immediate implications to the punt team he has to run out.  Everyone has to know every scenario to keep from catastrophes during the game.  In college, you have a huge roster to account for this, but on Sundays, he has no roster and little time to come up with quick solutions.

For now, the spine of his special teams appears to be:  Kyle Wilber (21 special teams snaps in week 1), Andrew Gachkar (18), Jeff Heath (18), Rod Smith (18), Damien Wilson (18), Byron Jones (15), and Keith Smith (13).  

How is this useful information for you?  Well, of course, you want to know who to credit or debit for big special teams moments, but you also want to know which names down the roster provide added value on gameday and thus keep from being scratched or even released when they need roster room. It is very basic job security for a lot of those names above - provided they do a great job.

Now, on to your emails:

Do you think this new guy, Ryan Davis will bring a spark to the pass rush?

I sure hope so.  I am sure you have seen how this guy - who I am guessing most had never heard of - is instantly the Cowboys career sack leader on the roster with his 11.5 career sacks.  Wow.  He is 27 years old and has played plenty in this league.  The Cowboys do a decent job of targeting names and jumping on them on the waiver wire when they come available at this position.  George Selvie and David Irving both come to mind as guys they see fit their profile (high motor, active players) who can cause commotion.  I have been asked if he is a player this weekend, and while I have no idea, I suggest that he is only here to help in September for now.  So, I would not be surprised if they run solution possibilities right out there in these first four games.  

Would you change the offense at all to take advantage of more Dak skills, like maybe running the read option?

Oh, yes.  And I expect that is already their plan.  They are trying to get him prepared for so many scenarios that they are likely trying to keep things simple, but I expect that will be a real weapon this year before it is all over.  His one "keep" on Sunday was pretty effective.  But, more than anything, it is the threat that he will keep it that is most valuable.  It should keep defenses honest.

At what point would you hit the panic button on Zeke? Is it not alarming that he couldn't produce behind this offensive line?

It surely wasn't a great debut by any stretch and you already know my consternation on the idea of investing so heavily in him.  But, let's slow before we get too carried away on the debuts of Elliott or even Dez Bryant.  It was one game.  Let's chat when it gets to four or five games.  By then, either they have demonstrated their quality or we are panicking.  

People scoff at Week 2 being a "must-win" but isn't it when you consider not just starting 0-2 but being two back in the division?

All along, I was thinking 2-2 in the first four was vital.  I was planning on splitting the first two divisional games and then splitting the next two with the Bears and 49ers.  0-2 would not be ideal, but it also would not be the end of the year.  So, yeah, winning on Sunday would be a real great plan.  But, it will also be a very angry Redskins team that was humiliated on Monday Night in that same stadium.  That should make one optimistic, but it always makes me nervous when you have to play a humiliated opponent.  

Alfred Morris has been the ideal teammate and is producing in limited action. You think he's earned the right to more carries, especially against his former team?

I think Morris is quite an impressive man.  He really says all the right things and then just plays his tail off.  I would be quick to give him a heavy workload on Sunday as it will mean a lot to him to show his old team that they definitely made a poor choice.  The odd thing is, I kind of think they did the right thing.  You see, Morris as a #2 is great.  Morris as a #1 is probably not great.  I think Washington realized that, too.  The real mystery is why Washington really didn't do anything at RB and now they look like they have nothing there.

Is Dak being too safe right now? Seemed like in the preseason when he had nothing to lose he would let it rip to Dez but now he seems a little scared...

I really don't have much concern about this.  His job is to lead drives down the field and then make throws for points.  If Beasley holds his touchdown and Dez holds his, Dak fever is off the charts and the Cowboys scored 27 or so in their opener.  From what I have seen from Prescott, I would not call him "captain check-down" at all.  He did his part.  Now, as he gets more comfortable and as the coaches make adjustments (please, please), getting the ball to Dez in better spots is the goal.

Do you think the Cowboys have enough depth in the secondary? Seemed like once Scandrick went out for a bit last week things fell apart. Is Anthony Brown any good?

I like what I have seen from Brown, but I will grant you that I haven't seen much in a Cowboys uniform yet. I think they have decent depth, but they desperately need Scandrick to be Scandrick again for this to work.  He was victimized badly by Odell Beckham on Sunday and that was quite distressing.  Let's see how he is able to rally from what we are hearing is a small hamstring issue.  If he isn't special this year, things might start to fall apart in that secondary.  Brown seems capable, but they need better than that right now. 

The Cowboys have made a habit of restructuring contracts (and drafting them with an eye toward that possibility). Is this an advisable/sustainable way to allocate resources or does it risk too much dead money if players break down or underperform?

No.  It is not advisable or sustainable.  I don't like it and no team does more of it than Dallas.  In fact, I have even heard them admit that they write contracts knowing they are going to restructure the deal.  Other teams try to go the other way and find ways to do a deal where they pay a ton in Year 1 to make the end of the deal nothing.   But, the Cowboys always have this giant boulder rolling at them - take Tony Romo's deal - and they run to stay ahead of it, like Indiana Jones.  

I don't think that anyone keeps record of this, but I would love to see the league's restructuring standings in the last decade.  It would be a real shock to me if anyone did it more than Dallas does.  This type of business cost them DeMarcus Ware and it always keeps them in a financially tight spot where they never seem to catch up.

Ok, that is the mailbag this week.  Enjoy the game.  The Cowboys can definitely win it, but this one should be another tight game with 5 minutes to go.  Let's hope they make a few plays down the stretch this time.