Decoding Linehan - 2016 Season Stats

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Staff Photographerok

The Dallas offense, led by quarterback Dak Prescott (4) huddles in the fourth quarter during the New York Giants vs. the Dallas Cowboys NFL football game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Sunday, September 11, 2016. (Louis DeLuca/The Dallas Morning News)

By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

Decoding Linehan - season review

As we continue to look back at 2016, I thought it would be a very worthy exercise to look through the data the NFL produces regarding each team's performance in roughly 300 categories. Today, it will be the offense's turn, and tomorrow we will use the same method to look at the Cowboys' defense.

 

By all measures, the offense did a fantastic job. It then converts to absurdly fantastic when you come to grips with the fact that a largely ignored fourth-round rookie quarterback was running the whole thing. To prove that sports fans will look each and every gift horse in the mouth, the consternation and seeming dissatisfaction of not matching or exceeding every offense, in every category, has been heard. Some, I guess, expected Dak Prescott to outperform all of the $25-million-per-season quarterbacks in his first year of professional football, and/or they expected Tony Romo to suddenly heal from all of his repeated health issues and then perform at the top end of his career ladder without any notable action in roughly two years. Regardless, the gift horse delivered at levels that should get everyone excited about the future, especially with the premise that with familiarity, Prescott's performance should improve to even greater heights.

There are certainly many statistics that an offense can be measured on, but there are some big ones that stand above all the others.

Wins are the biggest. But that is a team metric. Wins requires the defense and special teams to pull their weight, too. So let's set that aside and look at offense-only numbers within a five-year window:

POINTS PER GAME: 5th

The Cowboys ranked fifth in the NFL at 26.3 points per game. They trailed Atlanta, New Orleans, New England and Green Bay. They outperformed the league average by 57 points and playoff teams' average by 30 points.

Here is the five-year trend:

Interestingly enough, the five-year ranks are 15th (2012), fifth (2013), fifth (2014), 31st (2015) and fifth (2016). So regardless of the slight difference in production between the 2013, 2014 and 2016 seasons, the Cowboys ranked fifth each time. Each time, New England was above them. Two years, Denver and Green Bay joined them. So basically, the Cowboys have had an elite offense, but were just a few rungs from the very top.

That said, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers are the only quarterbacks to outperform the Cowboys in those three seasons during that window. So that will do for winning the NFC East and pretty much the NFC, in general, from a scoring standpoint.

YARDS PER GAME: 5th

Here again, the Cowboys finished fifth in yards per game with a very impressive 376 yards per. We also documented earlier in the year that they set the franchise record for 400-yard games with nine. They trailed New Orleans, Atlanta, Washington and New England in yards per game this season. The average NFL team was at 350, and the average for playoff teams was at 359.

You can see that the five-year trend has been up and down, with very little correlation between points scored and total yardage, it seems. The five-year ranks, starting in 2012, for Dallas in the league: sixth, 16th, seventh, 22nd and fifth. So from a rankings standpoint, the 2016 Cowboys finishing fifth is the high-water mark over that stretch. It also shows you that the sport is trending a bit back toward defense as numbers taper off a bit.

3RD-DOWN OFFENSE: 10th

Here is one of the most important statistics in the entire sport -- third downs. This is where so much is determined and drives are extended. Especially if you want to be a run-first team, you have to know you are going to be faced with a dozen or more third downs per week. In fact, Dallas was right at that number with 11.8 chances per game. They converted on 42.3 percent of them (80 of 189), which placed them 10th in the entire league:

The league average in 2016 was 39.7 percent, and the playoff-team average was 40.3 percent. Finishing 10th is very good, given the circumstances, but you will want to raise the bar in 2017.

This is where the 2014 Cowboys were clearly superior. But before you have that Tony Romo parade, you should know that the year before (2013), he led the team to 25th. The five-year trend from 2012-2016, in league rankings: fifth, 25th, second, 27th and now 10th. Each season, they go back and forth from great to horrid and back to great again. This statistic has been anything but consistent during this window.

GIVEAWAYS: 5th

And finally, for our "big stats," we look at turnovers. It is great to put up productive numbers, but if you are then giving the ball away, you undo all the good you have done. That sort of self-sabotage has hurt many offenses, including some of those 8-8 teams around here from 2011-2013. The league average is 22 giveaways, and playoff teams averaged 18.

I was pretty shocked that 15 giveaways only gets you to fifth. But Atlanta, New England, Buffalo and Oakland actually gave the ball away fewer times. Two of those teams also put up more yards per game, so if you want to win with "elite offense," you see where the bar has been set. Get all of the points, yards and never give the ball away. Wow.

Five-year rankings for Dallas in this department: 25th in 2012, eighth in 2013, 20th in 2014, 31st in 2015 and fifth in 2016. So again, this was the best season in the five-year window.

BELOW LEAGUE-AVERAGE STATS

So there are the four big stats (for me) on offense, and the offense ranked near the top of the league in all of them. Like I wrote at the top, there are all sorts of sub-categories (well over 100) and offensive metrics that are produced, but as I look at them all, I found almost none where the Cowboys were not at least league-average. But in the interest of full disclosure, here they are:

-- 18th - Third down-and-10+

They finished at 20.4 percent and league average was 20.5 percent.

-- 22nd - Big plays of 20+ yards

They finished third in plays of 10+ yards, but the bigger plays were four below league average.

-- 28th - 20-yard passes

See above.

-- 25th - Yards after the catch

The Cowboys finished nearly 400 yards below playoff teams in yards after catch. This could be a product of quarterback play or wide receiver explosiveness. Tough to paint that with a broad brush.

-- 23rd - Net passing yards per game

The Cowboys finished 15 yards below the per-game league average.

-- 26th - Starting drives in opponent's territory

This is actually a defense and special teams stat that shows the offense seldom was given a short field.

-- 29th - Offensive possessions

This should not shock anyone. The Cowboys played in low-possession games.

Now, many of those above numbers are electives. The Cowboys elected to play a certain style and that limited their passing numbers. It is my feeling that if they had wanted to pass more for more success, they demonstrated the ability to do so in most cases.

It also shows that they were dominating on the ground and will continue to be that way, we assume.

SUMMARY

Now, remember: There were dozens and dozens of positive numbers and almost no negative numbers from the offense. This was a fantastic offensive team.

But as we saw, an elite offense has company in this league. So either you are flawless, or you need a more balanced roster.

Tomorrow we look at things from a defensive perspective and see how they did compared to the league average in their five-year window.

The Morning After - Beating Down The Bears

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The Dallas Cowboys have accomplished something that has proven to be next to impossible for the organization in the Tony Romo era.  They have won consecutive games without him. 

This is not because they have not been afforded the opportunity.  They actually have had this chance on many, many occasions.  Romo's fatal flaw has been his ability to stay fit, and while there are actually people that argue that this is some sort of "media creation", the fact is that Romo has not been able to make every start since 2012 and just four times in his ten full seasons at the helm. 

That is why you would think that the organization would have taken this "QB2" role about as seriously as anyone during that stretch.  They needed help in 2008 (3 games), 2010 (11 games), 2013 (one, but arguably the one that mattered most), 2014 (2 games), 2015 (parts of 14 different games), and now the first 6 weeks or so in 2016. 

They have had plenty of convincing pieces of evidence that they may wish to invest more heavily in this insurance policy, but to be fair to the team, there are more than a few organizations that can't even find a starting QB.  It clearly is a position in sports where the demand far outweighs the supply.  Instead of purchasing insurance, they hoped that Romo could just stay healthy.

All of the gnashing of teeth on this topic has continued through August of 2016.  In fact, on the day Kellen Moore was injured (August 2, 2016), I offered these - now foolish-looking - thoughts about the young man who has become the Cowboys new hope: I want Dak Prescott to accomplish great things here.  But, based on his college tape and even a few practices in Oxnard, I think it is safe to say we are talking a few years - not a few weeks - before he is prepared to play meaningful snaps around here.  He has tons of interesting components to his game, but the adjustments to NFL speeds and sizes will be a hurdle for him, and his accuracy will need to be improved.  We knew that.  That is why he lasted so long in the draft.  He was not picked for 2016.

I believed that then and I even went on to suggest Jameill Showers had some interesting upside that the team may now want to consider. 

Regardless, 54 days seems like a lifetime.  Not only are the Cowboys winning with Dak Prescott as their quarterback, you can pretty easily make the argument that they are winning because of him. 

And that is a rare accomplishment.  Despite the fact Romo has given them well over 30 chances to play without him, this is only the second time during that stretch that they posted back-to-back wins.  The first time came in the first two games that Jason Garrett was the head coach of the Cowboys -- back in 2010 when they won his debut at Giants Stadium with Jon Kitna (in a game remembered for SMU's Bryan McCann returning an interception 101 yards), and then rolled the Detroit Lions the next week back at home (in a game remembered for SMU's Bryan McCann returning a punt 97 yards for a touchdown).  Oh, you don't remember our guy, McCann?  Well, it is true.  All of it.

Now, back to this 2016 version, which is out of the gate at a very acceptable 2-1.  You might suggest they haven't played the heavyweights on their schedule, but I will remind you that this year's schedule is not going to resemble 2015.  There is no visit scheduled from both Super Bowl teams from the previous year (New England and Seattle) and even one from the upcoming version (Carolina).  Instead, if the Cowboys simply beat the teams that come in here without just a whole lot going for them, they will be in the middle of this battle all year. 

The bigger question is how far a rookie QB and RB tandem can take them.  It may just be a few more weeks, but there are already quotes out there from the owner and general manager that are starting to suggest that they don't have to "rush Romo back", which is quite clearly something that contributed to his second collarbone injury in 2015.

The amazing thing about this Prescott era is the way the team gets ahead.  They score early and often and this is now a run that seems to describe every time Prescott has taken the field for the Cowboys -- all the way back to preseason.  But, let's just focus on the games that count for now.  In Week 1 against the Giants, the Cowboys scored on their first four possessions, and five of the first six.  The problem that day was that too many were Dan Bailey kicks and only one touchdown.

Then at Washington in Week 2, it was four of the first five.  Two touchdowns and two field goals, but the team gets to 20 points very early in the third quarter, on their way to 27. 

But against a Chicago team that we can pencil in for a top 10 pick in next April's draft, the Cowboys took the ball four times in the first half, all inside their own 28 yard line, and drove right down the field four times.  They put up 24 points in that first half, with 274 yards of total offense, and put the game pretty much to bed right there with a 24-3 intermission lead.  The yardage was split evenly between running and passing and Prescott had rolled up a 105 QB rating while Ezekiel Elliott was handed the ball 13 times at about 6 yards a carry.    They owned the ball for 22 of the 30 minutes and had completely dominated the game in every respect. 

In other words, when everyone squinted about what Tony Romo and Elliott could accomplish on draft night, they couldn't have dreamed much better results than what these first three games have yielded with a rookie, backup QB.    

Now, there is plenty more to consider about last night.  Not the least of which was this team starting to deal with some health considerations (beyond Romo).  They had to play last night without Tyron Smith, which is something I would prefer to avoid moving forward.  Smith has been banged up this season, but last night was listed as an illness rather than the back/neck issues he has been dealing with.  Regardless, that is potentially big. Then, the moment on the second play of the game where it sure looked like Dez Bryant really hurt his knee again should be watched.  He finished the game, but he needs to be in top form to have his top explosiveness.  La'el Collins left the game, as well, which reminded people why Ron Leary is a wonderful insurance policy.  After a few years of offensive line health, they need to expect to deal with some level of "normal" issues up front, and they are prepared to do so.  Chaz Green gives me no confidence after his brutal preseason, but they survived last night with just a few moments to clean up around an otherwise serviceable performance at first glance.

Defensively, it was the third consecutive week of getting a takeaway.  This sounds like a rather small deal until you remember we are talking about a Dallas defense that tied an all-time NFL record last year for fewest takeaways with 11.  In fact, now that they got the ball twice last night from the Bears, that gives them four takeaways in three games.  Not on pace to shatter records, but at least on pace to get close to the NFL average (22.5).     

Last night, they caused a few fumbles and came up with them and in the first two weeks it was interceptions.   We know the limitations of this defense, but, if they can just go get the ball a few times, they will survive most weeks.  Four takeaways don't impress you?  Well, in 2015, they got their fourth takeaway on November 1.  It is awfully difficult to blame the backup QBs for what your defense was unable to do, so this improvement needs to be maintained moving forward.  Cosmetically, the Bears put up plenty of garbage time yardage, but when the game was in doubt, they never got anything going to cause too much consternation. 

The Cowboys are moving the ball, controlling the clock, and winning the turnover battle. Plus-2 this year through three games is progress from a team that a ridiculously bad minus-22 last season.  If you can't move the ball, at least take care of it.  This year, they are doing both.

Like we said in training camp, the September schedule was pretty easy, comparatively speaking.  They had to find 2 or 3 wins in September to have a chance, and now they can get to 3-1 with a win in San Francisco.  Nobody in the league is going to spend an hour praising Dallas for its start as other teams are more impressive.  That team in Philadelphia also has a rookie QB (who they paid handsomely for) who appears to be the real deal and their paths will cross in a month or so. 

Sunday night was exactly what it needed to be.  A convincing win that showed even without Romo, this team is plenty talented and dangerous to a certain opponent.  Take your gains and get your hurt a chance to recover before the next battle in a week. 

This first stretch has certainly offered the argument that the 2016 draft has a chance to be something historic around here.  We expected Elliott to be great.  But, Prescott's start?  As I demonstrated above, this exceeds my wildest expectations.  I imagine most of you are in that same boat.

Keep it going, kid.  

Off to Oxnard, 2016

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Here it is again. 

For me, this is training camp #19. It is honestly a part of my year that I hope never changes. I do take personal interest in the one question during the state of the team that wants to know if the new Star in Frisco will take us away from our normal field trip to Southern California. It sounds glorious? Well, it is. 2 weeks or so (for radio guys. 3 weeks for the team) in the place where it never gets much above 75 and never gets below 60 for the entire time you are here. You don't sweat much, but you will get sunburn. Beware of that. 

Anyway, each year we are here, you notice and follow the same patterns. Everyone is smiling. Everyone is full of optimism. Everyone is healthy. Everyone is in the best shape of their lives. This is arguably the most followed franchise in the NFL, and it isn't far down the rankings of any franchise in all of sports. There are legions of fans that want to know if there is good news or optimism to report. Have the Cowboys finally stepped through the door as a contender again? 

In late July or early August, when every player is in the healthiest state of their calendar year, the optimism is fantastic. The team looks its strongest. The holes look somewhat manageable. 

Then, Jerry gets up in front of the mass media and talks about the excitement, the preparations that have been made, and the final goal of holding this franchise's 6th Lombardi Trophy at the end of the run. 

It looks great from this spot. It always does. Everything is going to work out. It is August 1st and the optimism could not be higher. 

The only thing to keep someone from marching right in line to receive your Kool-Aid and drink up is to recall the other 18 times you have been here, felt this tractor beam of optimism, and then watched a season where things dissolved into a pile of garbage by October. The facts are pretty staggering. If you, like me, started attending the Cowboys annual optimism camp back in 1998, then you realize that of your previous 18 stops here, just seven (39%) resulted in playoff football on any level. You realize just four have resulted four (22%) have been NFC East Divisional titles. From there, I have witnessed nine playoff games, in which two (11%) of those special years - 2009 vs Philadelphia and 2014 vs Detroit - did the team do so much as win a wildcard playoff game. And at no point in those 18 previous seasons have they even secured a spot in the final four (0%), let alone a Super Bowl (0%). 

Now, this is an arbitrary sample size, for sure. Had I been born sooner and arrived in Dallas to cover the NFL sooner, perhaps I would tell you about my trips to three Super Bowls in four years, but I was only in college for those moments and watching them on television like so many of you. 

But, I am 44 years old now and have been covering this team since I turned 26. I have sat on this tennis court in Oxnard, in tents in Wichita Falls, or in the press box in San Antonio from the end of July until the middle of August, every year since Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, and Dennis Rodman won another title for the Bulls in 1998. It would be their last, and that franchise's run since is only slightly better than the Cowboys. 

The point is, given the historical odds are better that they miss the playoffs (61%), don't win the division (78%), and certainly don't win a playoff game (89%), you could surmise the odds of winning it all in the post Aikman/Emmitt/Irvin era is roughly impossible (100%). 

That is no fun. We don't arrive at Cowboys camp as Debbie Downer. This is the time to dream and wonder what is around the next corner. For all of your pessimism, Bob, let's remember that 2014 was one of the most pessimistic training camps of them all. 

2014 is the greatest thing to happen around here and the worst thing, all at the same time. It showed that you never know what joys can occur when you least suspect it (the 2014 training camp was amazingly depressing). It also showed how starved this franchise is for a little success because the number of times that year has been referenced as some sort of  "Football Valhalla" is truly staggering. You would think the accomplishments would rival the 1985 Bears based on the hype, only to look closer and see it was a wildcard win against the Lions.  

But, that is what feeds the optimism.  And we can always use some of that to prepare for a new journey.

Unfortunately, the optimism is still caught on some major speed bumps: 

1) - The team is still as tied to the health of Tony Romo as they have ever been. Now, I will grant anyone the truth that Romo is a hot button issue that nobody can agree on until it is too late. I will also grant anyone the premise that I have been on the side of massive concern since the Cowboys had to play the 2013 final game (win and you win the division and go to the playoffs) against the Eagles without him. That was the game that started the back surgeries, which was the most problematic concern with the great QB's body (let's all recall the flying knee to his back on Monday Night Football in 2014) until his collarbone snapped twice in 2015. Did his collarbone endure more stress because he was always turning to protect his back? Was he rushed back before he was healthy? Will this new Mumford procedure be the fix? Questions abound. And, for some unknown reason, the Cowboys did not flinch and go target a better solution at backup QB for 2016. They may end up being in fine shape for down the road if Dak Prescott can be developed, but if QB1 drops in 2016, they are still seemingly as screwed as could be. I don't think Kellen Moore can win games in the big leagues, and neither does anyone who was locked in last December. Was he better than Matt Cassel or Brandon Weeden? If so, it is too fractional to get excited about. I don't know why they didn't get short-term Romo insurance, but it never came close to happening. 

2) - Additionally, the front office certainly did not throw resources at their problems on the defensive front. Even in that 2014, the team could not generate enough pass rush presence to take over games defensively late. That is why they drafted Randy Gregory and signed Greg Hardy last offseason. Adding those two to a full season of DeMarcus Lawrence seemed destined to fix the pass rush and the defense in general. Unfortunately, Gregory and Lawrence are suspended, Hardy has been locked out of the facility forever, and the rest of the names on board are not going to grab headlines. There appears to be some real quality with Cedric Thornton, Maliek Collins, Charles Tapper, and Benson Mayowa joining this group up front, but it will be a much quieter hype explosion until they prove their worth. 

3) - Jason Garrett is still the head coach here. I like Jason Garrett. I do. And, I don't want to belabor this one, but aside from Marvin Lewis (who has a similarly odd front office situation), there are almost no modern coaches who have the length on their leash that Garrett has received in terms of time to put results on the board. He now starts his 6th full season and if I thought he had more power to run things like a proper coach should, I would be more annoyed by seeing how great other coaching hires have worked while the Cowboys keep signing up for another year of this. Unfortunately, the Cowboys coach might only be able to do so much with most of his decisions made for him, and therefore being mad at Garrett for looking powerless is likely barking at the moon. That said, I have seen enough. 1-11 without Tony Romo last year was just another example of many that this head coach could be improved upon. There are times where the coach has to make the difference for a team, and they never did that last year at all. 

4) - We have no idea who the linebackers are. I love the Jaylon Smith possibilities, but with Rolando McClain out of here (I believe he has played his final snaps as a Cowboy) and with Smith a virtual long-shot to play in 2016, the Cowboys are weak at pass rush and then weak at linebacker behind it. If the plan is to have any faith in the front seven whatsoever, then they need massive years from Sean Lee and Tyrone Crawford. Both are full of that ability, but it all starts with their bodies being right and durable this season which has been an issue with both on plenty of occasions. As for linebacker, Lee, Anthony Hitchens, and who knows will be the starters. And we know linebacker is a spot that requires weekly car accident-level crashes, and therefore your starters are going to change on a regular basis, so you better have 4-5 quality LBs. The Cowboys seem to have one or two. 

That said, there are some very exciting things to focus upon. Shall I detail them? Let's: 

1) - The Cowboys should have the 2016 NFL Rookie of the Year. Ezekiel Elliott should be great and special and fun. He really can do it all and you would be foolish to not want all of that. I have spent months debating the wisdom of upgrading a portion of the team that was never broken and dispelling this absurd myth that Elliott will improve the defense substantially, but at the end of the proverbial day, they should have someone special at RB. In fact, you could argue that he should be much better than DeMarco Murray, to be honest. It should give everyone pause that they invested in a position that is most likely to suffer injury, but if he stays healthy, they should have a difference maker in place and you can never have too many of those. 

2) - Byron Jones will play Free Safety. I cannot express how great this should be. They now will have an "above-average" free safety for their Cover 3 and Cover 1 defenses and that is such a rarity for this franchise that the full effects will shock the fan base. I am very excited about this development. 

3) - Dez Bryant and Tony Romo are believed to be fully healthy. If they are and return to what they were, then the fireworks should continue on schedule. They were unstoppable - especially against man coverage - and found a way to work so many situations into their favor. There is no reason why this offense shouldn't be more dynamic because of the coverage Dez demands, and with Tony's decision making and accuracy at the top of his career, this means that no secondary will be safe once they start sneaking guys up to stop the run. This assembling of talent on the offense has massive promise, so now that it is all here together, it is time to start seeing production shoot up immediately. 

4) - Orlando Scandrick is back, too! You don't know what you got until its gone, and no team should be trying to play without a slot corner in today's NFL. The Cowboys did last year and that explains why Byron Jones couldn't replace JJ Wilcox at free safety until now. Scandrick being able to get on the inside and mix it up with those pivot routes and pick plays at the line of scrimmage make everything fall into place. I think this is a much bigger development than most. 

5) - Cedric Thornton, Benson Mayowa, and Alfred Morris are each very good football players that should help. In fact, the Morris signing made me think even more they didn't need a RB that high in the draft, but I digress (at least they have great injury cover if anything happens to Zeke). Thornton is going to be a very big addition inside and will help dramatically against the run and with taking control of that huddle. I really am excited about these three veteran moves.

Let's be honest. Fully healthy and present (not suspended), there is plenty to get excited about. The issues rest in being leveraged in guys who may have health considerations (or suspension considerations) and then not having a quality replacement behind them. One injury situation at QB1, Middle Linebacker, or Dez Bryant and they will have a massive catastrophe again. But, if the attrition of the NFL year begins to chip in....well, you watched 2015. You know.

We are playing football again. The Cowboys have done what they have chosen to do, and now we see if they got it right. This is a great time of year. No damage has been felt. Well, apart from the self-inflicted suspensions.

But, enough about all of that. It is time to see what happens. There will be many twists and turns that cannot be predicted. There are heroes that will emerge that nobody knows.

Time to find out what is around the next corner.

As the great Bart Scott would say, "Can't Wait!"