"When you can run the ball in pass looks, that's a good thing. When you can run the ball against run looks, that's a better thing. And when you can run the ball against really, hard, difficult run looks by the defense, that's really good for your team and we were able to do that yesterday." - Jason Garrett, Monday, after the Cowboys ran the ball 43 times for 220 yards.
This week, there is little question what the lead story is when we evaluate the offense. We have been cataloguing every offensive snap the Cowboys have taken since 2008, and with the exception of early in 2009, what we have seen nothing close to this during the entire stretch of nearly 100 games of Cowboys football. They have 347 yards on the ground on 66 carries for 5.26 yards PER CARRY.
They have 269 of those yards on 50 carries from what we call "run looks" which are under center runs from 11, 12, 21, or 22 personnel. 5.38 yards PER CARRY. That means what Garrett is referring to above. They are running after pre snap run declarations and are still having success. That is the true test and they are passing it with ease so far.
In the first 3 games of 2009 (At Tampa Bay, H New York Giants, H Carolina), we had another period of time where the Cowboys wanted to pound the ball and see what happened. They ran the ball 82 times for 574 yards in those first 3 games, in a season that they ran for 2,103 yards - easily the most they have ever run for in a season since Emmitt Smith was in uniform. That year, 2009, they averaged 131.4 yards per game, ran a balanced offense, and won the NFC East.
Back then, they weren't a zone running team (at least to this extent). They ran a lot of pulling guard, man-blocking. Kyle Kosier, Leonard Davis, Andre Gurode, Flozell Adams, and Marc Colombo/Doug Free were a dominating physical front for most of the year and had 11 games that year over 100 yards rushing. That total is 1 more than 10 games that the 2012 and 2013 Cowboys ran for 100 yards, combined.
I say with great confidence that if the Cowboys are going to run the ball like that, they are going to win many more games than we thought....IF....
=====
IF TONY ROMO GETS GOING
Now, it is just 2 games. So the fact that he has career lows in QB Rating, TD%, and Yards per attempt out of the gate should not freak us out too much. He also has a career high in INT% going, but we figure that will fix itself quickly.
Below is a chart that demonstrates that the Romo YPA, what many consider one of the most important numbers in the entire QB spectrum, has been steadily declining since the collarbone year of 2010. The Blue line is Romo from 2006-2014 and the Green Line is the NFL Average. Remember, Romo was the #1 YPA QB in football from 2006-2009 at 8.1 YPA. Then, after his collarbone, he is 11th and tied with Robert Griffin III with 7.55 since 2011.
Last year, it dropped to 7.2 and so far in 2014, we are below the green line at 7 for the first time ever at 6.9.
It is only 2 games, but it is also a sharp decline since 2011.
But, what is going on with his sack rate?
If we are going to talk about this offensive line being 5 Blocks of Granite then they better be able to keep the QB clean. Given that Romo's career high for sacks in a season is 36, the 56-sack pace he is currently on is a bit disconcerting.
Again, let's look at the post-collarbone cliff that Romo's sack rate has fallen down. Even if 2010 was a misleading number, we can agree that his sack rate was 20.5 before the incident and the lost season, and since 2011 it is down at 16.5. So, given that the NFL average green line is roughly between 15 and 17 each season, he has gone from very difficult to sack from 2006-2010 to right at the league average from 2011-2014.
In fact, the raw numbers state that he threw 2,176 passes and was sacked 106 times before the injury, and has now thrown 1,885 passes and has been sacked 114 times since.
How much of that is Romo and how much of that is his supporting cast? Yes. I imagine it is both. But, if you pop in a tape from 2007 when he is running around like a nut versus Sunday when he hits the deck because he hears footsteps, you can see a different type of QB. Much of it is normal aging, but these last 2 graphs might demonstrate that the Tony Romo that many Cowboys fans fell in love with might not live here anymore.
It will be interesting to see if he can put 6-8 weeks together soon that can flip the script back in his favor.
=====
COUNTING THE BOX
One of the big talking points since the Tennessee game has been the play-calling debate that links the San Francisco game to the Titans victory in that both times the Cowboys had the ball at the 2 or 3 yard line, both times they had a chance to get a first down inside the 2, and both times they elected to throw.
So, if you are mad about the Justin Smith sack, are you still mad when they hit Dez Bryant on the back shoulder fade in Nashville?
No.
You can find all sorts of articles online about what a QB must do pre snap at any level of playing the position, and surely, it must be declared that I have never taken a snap. But, this is rather basic just to be able to count. One of the first things you do is find the Mike. Then, you identify where the safeties are. This helps you see if they are in a run front or a pass front.
It is math. They only have 11. So, if you count the box and it is a high number, you realize they don't have many troops to stop the run. Or, the opposite is true. So why was the right decision made Sunday and the wrong decision made the week before? Let's count.
The Titans have 9 in the box. They are not helping either corner. Dez Bryant is in man, and we feast on that with his strength, resume, and ability.
Now, back to that poor read last week:
The Niners have 6-7 in the box. 41 is switching with a LB, but basically the 49ers have man coverage to the bottom and double coverage to the top against Dez as the safety is keeping Dez off the slant.
6 blockers versus 6 defenders. I am running.
7 blockers versus 9 defenders. I am throwing.
Count the box. It isn't always that simple, but sometimes it is.
Offensive Participation: Perfect health and attendance from the offense for the 2nd week in a row. All 82 snaps for Free, Martin, Frederick, Leary, and Smith on the OL, and were joined by Witten and Romo. Bryant 62, and Williams 61 led the WR's even though Bryant had to go check his shoulder at one point. Beasley 34, Harris 23, and Street 11 rounded out the WR group. Murray 59, Dunbar 17, and Randle 7, with Clutts in front for 14. At TE Hanna 21 and Escobar 15 joined Witten periodically, and Parnell played 3rd TE in heavy sets on 4 occasions. All snap numbers courtesy of PFF and they include all snaps including plays that were not official because of penalties.
STATS FOR WEEK 2 AGAINST TENNESSEE
| Run Plays | 43 |
| Pass Plays | 33 |
| Avg Starting Position | D28 |
| 1st Down R-P | 27-8 |
| 2nd Down Avg to Go | 7.08 |
| 2nd Down R-P | 12-13 |
| 3rd Down Avg to Go | 7.93 |
| 3rd/4th Down R-P | 4-12 |
| 3rd Down Conversions | 9-16, 56% |
| 4th Down Conversions | 0-0 |
| Yards Per Play | 4.8 |
| Yards Per Pass Attempt | 6.1 |
| Red Zone TDs - Drives | 2-3, 67% |
| Giveaways | 1 |
We have balance on 2nd Down! Very rare. 9-16 on 3rd Down will win a lot of games. And that Red Zone TD% is great, too. Everything is awesome aside from that very low Yards per pass attempt. Yeesh.
This season, we're attempting to track both passing and drive progression. John Daigle has designed a fantastic chart. Each color, for instance, represents the possession number listed in the key. If you were to start from the bottom and work your way up, you would be tracking that possession from beginning to end. The dotted-lines are incompletions. Large gaps between throws are mostly YAC or carries.
Week 2 Summary
Hooks, slants, and screens were all part of the game plan, as shown by the numerous charted throws. Dallas had 11 possessions Sunday, but only attempted a pass during eight of them. And with this particular plan in place, it should come as no shock that 72 percent (21-29) of Romo's attempts traveled less than nine yards through the air.
The horizontal passing game was on full display.
DRIVE STARTERS - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -
Wk 1 - San Francisco: 5 Run/5 Pass - 50% Run
Wk 2 - At Tennessee: 8 Run/3 Pass - 72% Run
2014 Total: 21 Drives - 13 Run/8 Pass - 61% Run
2013 Total: 176 Drives - 84 Run/92 Pass - 47% Run
2012 Total: 173 Drives - 76 Run/97 Pass - 44% Run
2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass - 44% Run
* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives.
SHOTGUN SNAPS
Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated.
On Sunday, the Cowboys were back down at historical lows. This, friends, is an anomaly in the modern NFL. Don't go falling in love with sub 40%.
Wk 1 - San Francisco: 41 Shotgun/63 Total Plays - 65% Shotgun
Wk 2 - At Tennessee: 30 Shotgun/76 Total Plays - 39% Shotgun
2014 Total: 71 Shotgun/139 Total Plays - 51% Shotgun
2013 Total: 566/945 - 59.8% Shotgun
2012 Total: 565/1038 - 54% Shotgun
2011 Total: 445/1012 - 43.9% Shotgun
TOTALS BY PERSONNEL GROUPS
(Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.)
| Package | Plays | Yds | Run | Pass | 3rd/4th | Yds | Run | Pass | FD/TD |
| 11 | 12 | 72 | 11-50 | 1-22 | 1 | 6 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1/0 |
| 12 | 17 | 86 | 12-75 | 5-11 | 1 | 3 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 10 | 2-10 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| 21 | 6 | 39 | 4-22 | 2-17 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| 22 | 9 | 39 | 9-39 | 0-0 | 3 | 15 | 3-15 | 0-0 | 2/0 |
| 23 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| S01 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| S02 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| S11 | 24 | 91 | 5-24 | 19-67 | 10 | 43 | 0-0 | 10-43 | 5/0 |
| S12 | 4 | 9 | 0-0 | 4-9 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| S13 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| Other | 2 | 18 | 0-0 | 2-18 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0/0 |
| Totals | 76 | 364 | 43-220 | 33-144 | 16 | 67 | 4-21 | 12-46 | 8/1 |
Check those runs from under center. Beautiful. And the 3rd Down conversions were very good from Romo when it mattered most to extend drives.
PLAY-ACTION PERFORMANCE
Wk 1: 1/5, 9 Yds, 3 INT, 1 FD
Wk 2: 4/5, 39 Yds, 1 Sack, 2 FD
2014 Total: 5/10, 48 Yds, 3 INT, 1 Sack, 3 FD
Let's just say they are still trying to figure out how to use their play-action. But, the running game will only make it better.
BLITZING ROMO
Pass Rushers Against Dallas - 33 Pass Situations vs Tennessee
Wk 1: SF Blitzed Dallas 1/40 - Blitzed 2.5%
Wk 2: Tenn Blitzed Dallas 12/33 - Blitzed 36.3%
2014 Total: Opponents Blitzed Dallas 13/73 - Blitzed 17.8%
2013 Total: Opponents Blitzed Dallas 210/616 - Blitzed 34%
Tennessee blitzed plenty, but likely not close to as much as they wanted because the Cowboys were ahead of the chains and not in disadvantageous down/distance spots too much. Well done. See how it all ties together?
WEEK 2 TOTALS
| Pass Rushers | 3 Rush | 4 Rush | 5 Rush | 6 Rush |
Totals
|
| 1st Down | 0 | 7 - 87.5% | 1 - 12.5% | 0 | 8 - 24% |
| 2nd Down | 1 - 7.6% | 7 - 53.8% | 3 - 23% | 2 - 15.3% | 13 - 39% |
| 3rd Down | 0 | 6 - 50% | 4 - 33% | 2 - 16.6% | 12 - 36% |
| 4th Down | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Totals | 1 - 3% | 20 - 60.6% | 8 - 24% | 4 - 12% |
33
|
SEASON TO DATE
| Pass Rushers | 3 Rush | 4 Rush | 5 Rush | 6 Rush |
Totals
|
| 1st Down | 3 - 12% | 21 - 84% | 1 - 4% | 0 | 25 - 34% |
| 2nd Down | 3 - 10.7% | 19 - 67.8% | 4 - 14% | 2 - 7% | 28 - 38% |
| 3rd Down | 1 - 5% | 13 - 65% | 4 - 20% | 2 - 10% | 20 - 27% |
| 4th Down | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Totals | 7 - 9.5% | 53 - 72.6% | 9 - 12% | 4 - 5% |
73
|
Thanks to John Daigle for his work on the charts and graphs.
SUMMARY:
There is plenty to like from Week 2. It starts with just the one turnover and of course, a dominating physical whipping of an opponent on the road. We must figure out pass protection which seems to be as much about assignments on blitzes and zone blitzes as it is with guys getting beat - although Doug Free certainly had a day - but nevertheless, those are drive killers and can get your QB knocked out.
They are still trying to figure out how to play with all of their toys, but overall, the offense has passed most non-Romo related tests through 2 weeks. We assume he will bounce back, mostly because we have no other choice.
But, beyond that, Zack Martin is settling in, DeMarco Murray looks like he is playing angry and hungry, and Dez Bryant is one of the best receivers in football.
I picked this team to have a very difficult year, but I must readily admit that with the evidence we currently have, the offense has a chance to be really good if they can maintain this power balance.
SUMMARY:
There is plenty to like from Week 2. It starts with just the one turnover and of course, a dominating physical whipping of an opponent on the road. We must figure out pass protection which seems to be as much about assignments on blitzes and zone blitzes as it is with guys getting beat - although Doug Free certainly had a day - but nevertheless, those are drive killers and can get your QB knocked out.
They are still trying to figure out how to play with all of their toys, but overall, the offense has passed most non-Romo related tests through 2 weeks. We assume he will bounce back, mostly because we have no other choice.
But, beyond that, Zack Martin is settling in, DeMarco Murray looks like he is playing angry and hungry, and Dez Bryant is one of the best receivers in football.
I picked this team to have a very difficult year, but I must readily admit that with the evidence we currently have, the offense has a chance to be really good if they can maintain this power balance.
No comments:
Post a Comment