Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Draft Profile: Rd 7 - Caleb McSurdy - LB - Montana



The following is the 6th in a series of draft profiles for the Dallas Cowboys selected players from April's draft. These profiles are put together after watching significant amounts of tape from each player, and is an attempt to examine their resumes and play to get an idea of how they might fit in best with Dallas come training camp.

Caleb McSurdy
Montana
Linebacker
6'1, 245
40 time: 4.86, Bench Press: 26
Feb 24, 1990 (22)


There was a definite sea change in the way the Cowboys have done their drafts since Jason Garrett has taken over as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys. Whether he is the main reason for this adjustment is up for debate, but since he preaches the value of such virtues that the Cowboys have targeted, I am tempted to credit him with these changes. Only time will tell if this sort of adjustment has a real impact on the quality of the Dallas Cowboys overall, but let's discuss the premise.

On draft weekend, as each player goes off the board, the players that remain begin to show certain aspects of their game that caused the slide in the first place. This player doesn't respond well to coaching. That player does not have ideal height. This player did not test well at the chalk board. This player made poor football decisions. As the draft goes from Day 1 to Day 3, now every candidate on the board has warts. And sometimes, lots of warts.

So, organizations have to have an overall draft philosophy. And while this is an over-simplification, it is often a case of choosing raw tools-based projects or football players who do not have ideal measurables for the next level but still make plays. And to me, this is where the Cowboys are making a subtle change to the way they are picking players.

Not a gigantic adjustment, nor one that is one that can be proven with each pick, but Garrett and the front office seem determined to bring in the "right kind of guy". The days of taking players because they run fast or jump high and the team dreams of converting them into football players has been put on hold. Garrett spoke about passion, emotion, and enthusiasm. High Character players who love the game.

And Caleb McSurdy is an example of what Central Casting would think was the perfect player for that role. McSurdy would be the linebacker on Friday Night Lights, who lives for football and is ready to run through a wall to win that game. Of the 7 players the Cowboys drafted, 6 of them were captains on their teams in college. They took leaders this season and will hope that pays dividends down the road.

Now, before we get too carried away about his upside, we should acknowledge a few simple truths. Of the 33 linebackers at the NFL Combine, only 1 ran a slower 40-time than McSurdy's 4.86. His speed certainly put him in a spot where in today's NFL, some teams would not even consider him as a candidate for the position or a pick. His arm length, vertical jump, and wing span are also very close to the bottom of all of the candidates at his position. As far as measureables, he has strength (26 reps on the bench). And that is about the extent of it.

He was the 222nd pick in the draft, in the middle of the 7th and final round. This is interesting because the 223rd pick was Travis Lewis from Oklahoma. The 224th pick was Alfonzo Dennard, the corner from Nebraska. The 226th pick was David Molk, the center from Michigan. Any of those picks would have been graded well from the media, given our familiarity with their body of work. And yet, the Cowboys targeted and grabbed an inside linebacker from Montana that almost seemed cliche to play in Texas. What did they see?

Well, thankfully, I had access to his game film at Montana and was able to pop in some considerable tape to evaluate his skills. And, I must admit that there was a lot to like, given my cynicism when studying his combine performance. Playing in the same Big Sky Conference as Matt Johnson (the safety from Eastern Washington the Cowboys selected in the 4th Round), McSurdy was a tackling machine.

If there was one game I would draw your attention to, it would be Montana's trip into Knoxville, Tennessee, to play the Volunteers back in September of last season. Pop in that tape and #40 for Montana is all over the field. Sideline to Sideline and shooting through gaps in the line to make a tackle. And another tackle. And another tackle. He was awesome at shedding and tackling. He would find the ball. When it was all said and done and Tennessee had a comfortable victory, McSurdy had 13 tackles and even a sack and was a real impressive piece of an undermanned team.

In another game, he was playing the short zone in coverage when the corner stumbled off the line. The receiver was in a slant-and-go and McSurdy recognized that the DB was out of the play, so he picked up the receiver and chased him all the way down the middle of the field in a way that you see middle LBs do so in the Cover 2 on Sunday. Despite running nearly a 4.9, he was stride for stride with a wide receiver and was on the scene to save a touchdown.

He has obvious limitations to his game. And he does struggle with being over-aggressive, at least at Montana. But, if you would watch one Montana game, you would see that the Cowboys have targeted a football player who always is burying his RPM needle in the red. He goes full throttle in every scenario, and that is the type of player that Jason Garrett wants on this team. You must have speed and talent on your squad, but further down the roster, would you concede a sliver of ability for a dose of effort and instinct?

It is a complicated recipe, but Garrett has his beliefs.

I would love to show you cut-ups of McSurdy, but I don't believe they exist on youtube.

Caleb McSurdy Pro Day



Summary: Odds are very good that McSurdy was drafted with the complete and total plan to make him a special teams regular. In the 7th round, it is not uncommon to pick a player who is only here for the special teams and not really in the plans for regular duty on the base defense unless many injuries occur or he over performs his projections. I was told by one person I trust that he fully expects McSurdy to lead the special teams in tackles as a rookie. If that happens, the pick at #222 will be celebrated and from there he can carve his path in the NFL where many teams took a look at him in shorts and decided he wasn't talented enough to play in this league. I think McSurdy was a very useful idea in the 7th round and a guy I fully expect to make the team. I also expect that he will do every thing in his power to force his way into the mix by making plays that matter whenever he gets the chance. He has instincts and a motor, and the Cowboys are betting on those two characteristics more and more on draft day.

Monday, May 14, 2012

Draft Profile: Rd 6 - James Hanna - TE - Oklahoma



The following is the 5th in a series of draft profiles for the Dallas Cowboys selected players from April's draft. These profiles are put together after watching significant amounts of tape from each player, and is an attempt to examine their resumes and play to get an idea of how they might fit in best with Dallas come training camp.

James Hanna
Oklahoma
Tight End
6'3, 252
40 time: 4.45, Bench Press: 24
July 14, 1989 (22)


There have been very few evolutions in the National Football League over the last generation quite like the evolution of the Tight End position. Coaches have learned that there are certain elements of the tight end skill set that can not be accounted for by a defense with the ease of a 3rd or 4th WR. And, instead of running out a small, speedy receiver, the league has combed the youth ranks for athletes who are basically basketball players between 6'4 and 6'7, and sent power forward types down the middle of a football field.

It has changed the way teams think of offense and defense. It has made the tight end spot a focal point rather than an after thought. It has made defensive coordinators stress whether this hybrid player is being sent on the field to set up a run or a pass. It is the birth of "12" personnel.

"12" personnel (1 RB, 2 TE) was a very rarely used package by most offenses until this past decade. When it was run, it usually involved tight ends who were basically tackles trying to open up running lanes on 3rd and short for that tough yardage for the ball carrier - which would actually be "22" (2 RB, 2 TE).

But, the league offenses learned that if done properly, they could flex out these power forward types, with the great speed and jumping ability, and they would be able to jump over smallish slot corners for passes, and run past linebackers or safeties to the seam routes. So, pick your poison, defensive coach. Whoever you line up against the tight end is going to determine his route. And there will be no right answer for guys like Vernon Davis, Jimmy Graham, Jermichael Finley, or Rob Gronkowski.

The Cowboys have had amazing success at the Tight End position going back to finding Jason Witten in the 3rd Round in Bill Parcells' first Cowboys draft. Since then, Witten has played in 143 of a possible 144 (missed one game as a rookie) and has played at such a proficient level of pass catching and blocking that he is often cited as the perfect "complete" tight end and a sure-fire Hall of Fame candidate when his career ends.

However, their dream of being one of the first few teams to fully make "12" personnel happen never materialized when Martellus Bennett did not come close to realizing the potential that the Cowboys thought he possessed when they took him in the 2nd Round in 2008. In fact, one can openly wonder what Jason Garrett and Tony Romo might have been able to do with Witten and Anthony Fasano as a tandem for more than a brief cup of coffee before the Cowboys deal Fasano away after 2007 to Miami to free up a space for Bennett.

Bennett was a very strong in-line blocker and the Cowboys success out of 2 tight end formations on the ground (especially in 2009) was largely because Witten and Bennett made things quite difficult on opposing linebackers in the run game. There were times in '09 when defenses were forced to push 9 players into the box to stop Marion Barber and the running attack and it still was impressive. But, the hands? Well, Bennett as a receiver was beyond disappointing. He never achieved 300 yards in a season and had almost no chemistry or dependability from Tony Romo in his entire run.

Enter James Hanna for 2012. Hanna was taken from Oklahoma as the 186th pick of the draft and the Cowboys 6th Rounder. It should go without saying that if you do find a player this deep in the draft that develops into a guy who is on your roster in 2014, you should feel pretty good about it.

He was the 8th of 11 tight ends taken, and does bring almost the exact opposite skill set as Bennett turned out to be as a Cowboy. Hanna runs as well or better than any tight end in the draft. Coby Fleener who was the first tight end taken in the draft actually ran slightly slower than Hanna, but has almost no rough edges to his scouting report, whereas Hanna might have to be considered a bit of a project. But, Hanna runs. And runs very fast. And in this age where everyone is looking for the next Graham or Finley or Davis, that is going to get him noticed.

In watching Hanna's game, there are some things that should be discussed.

First, you will see below his ability to head down the field on vertical routes is most impressive. At 4.45, he runs like a wide receiver. He is very smooth in his routes and has the type of athleticism that teams want to see. He was usually flexed out at Oklahoma and had a reasonably productive senior season which got him into this draft to begin with.

The things about his game that make you wonder how he will fit might be that his blocking is not overly impressive. Especially from a spot where he would be lined up next to a tackle on the line of scrimmage. From there, you can see that he weighs about 20 pounds less than Bennett and is just not the same player. On the other hand, Bennett running down the seams is just a rumor since Brad Johnson hit him on the "8" route against St Louis in 2008, so you can understand that the Cowboys were willing to concede one for the other. It also makes you appreciate how hard it is to find a tight end that can run and block, rather than simply taking Witten's skill versatility for granted.

He can block, but it requires a running start. This is achieved from lining up off the line or in motion and is not a real unique issue to Hanna, but it should be stated that the Cowboys are acknowledging that their ability to run out of 2 tight end sets are not going to be the same as they were from 2008-2011.

The real reason why he slid to the 6th round with that type of speed has to be the dependability in his hands. Speed takes you so far, but there is a reason track stars don't always make great football players. If ability was determined by 40 time, Witten would just be another tight end. But, he is not. He is elite. And he is elite because he knows and understands the nuance of getting open and making a tough catch in traffic. And while he likely has plenty to teach, his understudy has to be willing to learn.

In watching Hanna, one can say his consistency is lacking. He can make a beautiful catch in traffic, but then drop an easy one that hits him right in the hands. Or he would make a big catch and then while fighting for extra yards, he would have the ball stripped in traffic like what happened against Texas A&M in November.

You can see that the Cowboys still hope to find that Aaron Hernandez type. They have very similar frames and Hanna is almost 2 tenths faster in the 40. A tight end that can line up everywhere, do many things, not be counted upon to block too much, and stress the defense. Hernandez was taken in the 4th round in 2010, and is actually 6 months younger than Hanna. But, to compare him to Hernandez or even fellow Sooner, Jermaine Gresham is wishful thinking at this point. His development will determine if he is a prospect to follow or just a footnote in the media guide.

Hanna vs Oklahoma State 2010



And here is a highlight film - that is impressive, but we always must caution against believing highlight films for being a useful resource as it certainly doesn't dwell on the question marks.



Summary: This could really be an interesting pick if things pan out properly. But, in the NFL, you do not have the luxury of being brought along slowly. He must demonstrate an ability to make catches and to be dependable very early in August or he might never have a huge chance. The investment in him is minimal, so the amount of leash he gets will also be minimal. If the Cowboys do not feel good about their tight end spot by the end of camp, you can see them combing the waiver wire to get dependable veterans signed around Labor Day. However, if they can fashion his skills and know he will make a catch when needed, you can see that this will allow the Cowboys passing game to have some options and not need as much from a 3rd WR because their 2 TE sets are so interesting. I don't believe the Cowboys feel great about their 2nd or 3rd Tight Ends right now and also hold their breath that Witten can continue to play 16 games every year despite the number of collisions he is involved in. The tools are there for Hanna and so is the opportunity. If things break right, he can be a strong weapon for the team. But, he has to earn confidence from the QB. There is no question that he is worth the risk of a 6th rounder, but he has to make the most of his summer to make sure he forces his way into the mix in 2012.

Saturday, May 12, 2012

Cowboys Mailbag: 5/12

Let's enjoy the weekend with a little Cowboys feedback from you the fans in something that we inventively call, "Cowboys Mailbag".

Before we get started, I wanted to draw your attention to some of the items that have been posted over the last few weeks since the draft. In particular, I have spent numerous hours breaking down each draft pick and will post the links below:

3rd Round: Tyrone Crawford
4th Round: Kyle Wilber
4th Round: Matt Johnson
5th Round: Danny Coale

Now, on to our emails...


Bob,

Love your blog. Great stuff.

You seem pretty high on the Johnson the Safety the Cowboys drafted. I've seen some other positive reviews of that pick as well.

Here's my question: How come pre-draft he was rated so poorly by sites like NFL.com, SI, CBS, etc. They all had him going in the 7th round or even as a FA. When the Boys made the pick and I researched the player, it seemed as though they "reached" in that they could have gotten him much later. On the other hand, it appears that those who have evaluated him, his tape, and have seen him play, think he has a legitimate chance of becoming a starter - perhaps as early as later this year. Why the discrepancy?

Manish


Thanks, Manish. You are hitting on something here that is quite an issue for fans and has no concrete answer. The problem with talking about topic matter like the NFL Draft is that you the consumer are counting on the media to A) all be in agreement B) all to have done the proper amount of work and C) to be correct. And all three of those components will never be there, and sometimes, none of the 3 will be present.

The draft requires lots of opinion. In the case of Matt Johnson, the safety from Eastern Washington who I happen to really, really like, I am basing my opinions on having had the opportunity to watch him for quite a while since draft day in his college action for the Eagles. He does many things that jumped out at me that I feel make an ideal safety. I expect him to have great success with the Cowboys - as considered for a player who was taken very late in the 4th round (which should not be confused with great success for a player taken in the 1st round).

However, when you read his profile that I have written (that is linked above), you should take a few things into account; I readily admit that I am not comfortable measuring the difference between success at FCS schools (1-AA) and FBS (1-A) at the college football level. Would Matt Johnson have been a huge upgrade for the Texas Longhorns if he was playing in Austin? I think so, but I would have a real difficult time proving it. So, if I cannot tell you definitively that he would have been a huge upgrade on Blake Gideon, then how am I supposed to really know that he would really be a great upgrade over Abram Elam or Alan Ball?

The point is, there is a lot of guesswork involved in looking at these guys. But, sadly, what I have learned in this era of "draft experts" being under every rock is that many lists and guides are often put online without someone doing the work themselves. Anyone can do a mock draft and then get tons of visitors to their website by ranking the top safeties in this draft. But, of all of those guys, how many have sat down with a stack of tapes and actually watched each safety? If you are ranking Matt Johnson #72 then I must assume someone has actually broken down 72 different safeties and then feels comfortable ranking each one of them. If they actually are doing the work and are not just throwing names against a wall, then I applaud their thorough approach. I could not begin to break down that many different safeties, so I found time to look at possible 1st Round targets and then merely broke down players who the Cowboys had already taken. And what I saw of Johnson was very impressive.

My feelings still depend on plenty for my prediction to come true. He must stay healthy. He must continue to work hard. He must get a shot. And this will all be determined down the road. So, when someone sits down and looks at what he did on the red fields of Eastern Washington and then tries to project from there what we all might feel about Matt Johnson in 3 years, you can see that everyone is guessing - including the teams. But, the Cowboys must really like him, and I am telling you that in the case of this one particular player, I like him, too. Can't wait to see how he impacts the team as a rookie. I think, it will be noteworthy. If not, when people google his name in the future, they will see that this writer was really wrong about him back in 2012.


Hey Bob-

I have 2 questions about Morris Claiborne.

What sort of contract will it take to get him signed? And, is he a slam-dunk or are we all just hoping he is a slam-dunk to be a superstar?

Thank you,

Doug


Well, Claiborne and many other players in the last two drafts sure wish they were in the 2010 draft or before. Often, we hear old players talk about how they wish they played these days for all of the cash that is being paid to athletes. But, because the changes to the ways that rookies are paid with the new collective bargaining agreement and the development of what amounts to a rookie salary slotting system, we can easily project what Claiborne and the Cowboys will use as perimeters for a deal.

In 2010, Russell Okung was the 6th pick of the draft by the Seattle Seahawks. He signed a 6-year, $48.5 million dollar deal with $30m guaranteed. This was the last year before the change in the way rookies were paid.

Then, in 2011, the league changed, and then the 6th pick in the draft was Julio Jones by the Atlanta Falcons. Jones inked a 4-year, $16.2 million dollar deal that is fully guaranteed.

So, Claiborne should be looking for something in that Julio Jones range, with perhaps a little inflation increase for 2012. Patrick Peterson, also a CB from LSU, and thought to be the stud DB of 2011 went 5th to Arizona and was locked into a 4-year, $19.5 million fully guaranteed contract.

The good news from a team standpoint is that the guarantees are rolled way back and signings are simple. Green Bay announced yesterday that their entire draft class is now under contract. That premise seemed impossible in the month of May before this change. No longer could someone like JaMarcus Russell lock in for $50 million without ever proving his worth in the NFL. But, the downside is that now you only get these rookies for 4 seasons before they become unrestricted free agents and the promise of a big extension for those who play to their true expectation level.

Now, to your second question: How high should our expectations be for a player like Claiborne?

Of course, it should be sky-high. As I have written before, both HERE and HERE the Cowboys paid a lot and perhaps behaved a bit recklessly to get the best defensive player in the draft in a situation like they are in. One could argue, and I do, that the needs in other places on the roster made that move a difficult one for the Cowboys to make. But, I have said that, and it is time to move on.

From 2006-2010, just one cornerback was taken in the top 10 of the draft. Florida's Joe Haden went to Cleveland in 2010 and I would suggest that they have no regrets about Haden's play so far. I think Cleveland is pretty delighted with their pick.

In 2005, 3 corners went in the Top 10: Pac Man Jones, Antrel Rolle, and Carlos Rogers. All 3 have had their moments - Pac Man, had too many moments off the field that snuffed out his dazzling potential, but when we are using Darrelle Revis, Charles Woodson, Champ Bailey, Nmandi Asomugha, and Deion Sanders as the benchmarks for our expectation levels, I think all 3 would fall below that mark. In 2004, it was DeAngelo Hall and Dunta Robinson in the Top 10. Which brings us back to 2003 and Terence Newman.

Of those names, Jones, Rolle, Rogers, Hall, Robinson, and Newman, are any of them the type that you would say are all-decade candidates? Solid pros, but in the case of Newman, was there ever a time where he was considered the gold standard for corners in the NFL? No. In fact, none of those 6 names have ever showed up on the All-Pro list which tells us what "elite" looks like at the end of ever NFL season.

So, should we be happy if Morris Claiborne has Carlos Rogers career? Would we? I think the Cowboys expect him to be a top corner in the NFL and to do it quickly. And the point to this brief research project is that a solid career is likely. An elite career is not nearly as likely for Top 10 corners taken in the last decade.


Hi Bob

I enjoy reading your cold hearted, analytical dissection of all things Cowboys and was interested in a tweet I saw of yours which said that you see Bill Nagy being the Cowboys starting center in 2012 - and I wondered why.

I was surprised the Cowboys did not draft a center last month - Michael Brewster who was Wes Bunting's No 3 ranked prospect went untaken - and they could have swooped for Baylor's Blake but no dice. Given Phil Costa's struggles last season, center was one of my top two needs for the team - the other being defensive line and we could have had Fletcher Cox. Still thank heaven for small mercies - at least we didn't get Brockers who seems vastly overrated to me.

I know Jerry has said Costa could be the guy - take that with a pinch of salt because of who was saying it - but given Jason Garrett's desire for competition at all positions which he is to be commended for - I want no return to the Wade Phillips recipe for complacency - it seems to me as a result of their draft choices, the Cowboys have set up a four way battle for center between, Nagy, David Arkin, Costa and Kowalski.

Nagy, Arkin and Kowalski are all second year players now and the latter did not do himself any harm late last season when he entered the breach. They will all benefit from a proper offseason and I wonder with Costa being a third year player now and clearly understrength in pass protection last season, how much physical development does he have left in him? Perhaps he is already at or close to his personal ceiling. For that reason I can't see him winning the battle.

But I am interested to hear your case for Nagy. The Cowboys are rolling the dice once again with the offensive line - like they have done so often with the secondary until this season - and thankfully for my own sanity, I have already decided they will be no better than 8-8. But it might not even be that "good". With two new guards already paid and set to start - hence I can't see Nagy (poor at guard anyway last season) or Arkin having a chance to start there - a question mark at center, and two tackles being flipped which is no guarantee to cure Doug Free of his ills or help Tyron Smith reproduce his fine 2011 on the other side, this team could very easily fall back into its 2010 morass with Romo running for his life and Jason Garrett dusting off his three-step drop passing gameplans (think at Minnesota that season - a painful memory and awful to watch).

It's all on the line in 2012.

Regards
Steve
London, England


Thanks, Steve. You seem to be a man after my own heart when you make such a passionate case for the importance of the offensive line. I am right there with you and I do have issues with the way the Cowboys have conducted themselves over the last few years in trying to fix it on the cheap. They tried young and unproven last season, and now seem like they are going to try older veterans who may have upside but not enough to have their former teams or other teams across the league trying to keep them.

When they signed their two guards in free agency, Nate Livings and Mackenzy Bernadeau, the headlines around the league were not impressed. In fact, I don't believe their were headlines. The Bengals made no effort to keep Livings, 30, and many of the people who follow that team seem surprised at the Cowboys offer to get him. Bernadeau, 26, started 1 single game in 2011, and despite losing the starting guard in front of him. Travelle Wharton (to Cincinnati!) they still did not want him to be their starter. That should give us some level of pause.

However, on to center. I think that the real candidates here are Phil Costa, Bill Nagy, and Bernadeau. Then, they have to figure out who will take the other spot at the other guard if Bernadeau is the center. Which I would pull from group of Nagy, Arkin, or Ronald Leary - the undrafted guard from Memphis who has the knee issues.

My case for Nagy is based on his pedigree and his experience at Wisconsin which was at center when Peter Konz was hurt in 2010. I saw him play in November of that season and thought he did a real solid job and would like to see more of that. I think he is a better player than Costa, but I think either one of them would be improved if the other was not next to him at guard. That was the real issue last year. You can get away with one undersized and inexperienced player in your interior at times. But, you can not have two - especially next to each other. Watching that New England game, in particular, you see Vince Wilfork and the Patriots just destroying the interior of the Cowboys line and the play calling of Jason Garrett reflected that quite a bit.

I am not sure Costa makes the team, but if he does, I think it will be as a backup. He just needs to get stronger. And it isn't about bench press where Costa lifted 30 times at the combine. He needs to get stronger in his anchor and his balance which is something that is difficult to learn on Sundays. I think Nagy is better at this. But, there is a spot to be taken, and if Leary has a great summer, we should not be shocked about that big dude just making himself a starter. I still need to break him down on tape, but at first blush, he looks the part of a huge guard.

Keep sending your emails to sturm1310@me.com - Have a great weekend!

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Draft Profile: Rd 5 - Danny Coale - WR - Virginia Tech


The following is the 4th in a series of draft profiles for the Dallas Cowboys selected players from April's draft. These profiles are put together after watching significant amounts of tape from each player, and is an attempt to examine their resumes and play to get an idea of how they might fit in best with Dallas come training camp.

Danny Coale
Virginia Tech
Wide Receiver
6'0, 201
40 time: 4.44, Bench Press: 12
June 27, 1988 (23)


It is very difficult to look at draft picks in a vacuum. You simply must consider the context and the investment in a pick before you spend too much time ranting and raving about a player - positively or negatively. And we can certainly debate whether the Cowboys have been smart recently after they spent such valuable resources to secure Dez Bryant, but have basically tried to not sink too much into the 3rd Wide Receiver on their roster since being bit so badly by the Roy Williams trade.

Understand that in today's National Football League, a 3rd WR plays hundreds of snaps. 20 years ago, the amount of work a 3rd WR might see would be limited severely in Dallas because of the fullback position and the desire to keep Darryl Johnston on the field in almost all spots except 3rd down-and-long packages. But, these days, you can make the strong case that your 3rd WR is nearly a starter. For instance, in New Orleans, the Saints had 3 different WRs with 800 or more snaps. That is positively absurd by old NFL standards.

"11" personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) is now the base personnel with many of the high voltage attacks in the NFL. And there is no question that those who don't believe in "11" are starting more and more to invest in "12" personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) or both. So, when you consider the Cowboys situation moving forward, you can see how much the team is counting on significant playing time from either 3rd Wide Receiver or a 2nd Tight End, or, preferably both, as well.

In 2011, the Cowboys were rewarded for a shrewd signing in training camp by finding veteran Laurent Robinson on the waiver wire. He turned out to be a huge weapon as the season went along and the Cowboys spent a big chunk of the year with Robinson filling in for injuries to the two starting WRs, Bryant and Miles Austin. He was so good that he became too expensive to keep. The projections for his extension were somewhere in the 3 years for $18 million range. So, when Jacksonville stepped up with a 5 year, $32.5 million strike, he was not going to be kept by a team that was already strapped for cash.

Can Danny Coale fill that void? Coale, the 152nd pick in the draft and the 22nd Wide Receiver taken, is a player with a very decorated resume. His senior season was his most productive, despite Virginia Tech dealing with QB issues in 2011 as they attempted to replace Tyrod Taylor. He was clocked at the combine at a 4.44 40 yard dash, and his initial burst off the line is what you are looking for for the spot.

In watching him closely over several games, it does appear that he is an ideal candidate to work the slot and the underneath portions of the defense. He lined up at many different spots for the Hokies, but the slot was his familiar position. Using his quickness and his sharp changes in direction, he would often get free underneath or option it into a deeper diagonal route that would stress any zone once the outside receivers clear the corners out of the area.

He is a willing and able blocker on the outside and Virginia Tech continuously would run quick WR screens to him at the snap. This is a huge part of the offense that has some QB issues, but it is becoming more and more of the NFL game, too, to punish teams who want to play off and soft. He appears to have very solid hands and if you consider some of his bigger moments for the Hokies were at huge spots in huge games, you can talk yourself into Coale being a great fit.

We must remain reasonable on his expectation level. He was pick #152, despite playing at a big time program with great visibility. There is obviously a question league wide whether his skill set can translate to the NFL level. But, considering where he was taken and what was invested, this seems like a very sound decision. The question is whether you should have waited this long to address the need. If the Cowboys had put a 3rd or 4th Rounder on a WR, nobody would have found that curious. But, given what they need Coale to do - this year - the time they have allotted to bring him along slowly is almost non-existent.

At this portion of the profile, I like to offer you cut-ups of the player to look with your own eyes at his performance, good or bad. Unfortunately, there is very little footage of Coale in completed reels, aside from highlight films featuring his very best plays. I hesitate to post these, because they do not properly reflect his normal play. But, be forewarned. These are his best plays.

Coale's Big catch against Nebraska in 2009:



And here is a highlight tribute film, complete with orchestral accompaniment - After watching this, you might wonder how he wasn't taken 1st overall:



And if you so desire, you can watch Danny Coale talk to kids while he was at Virginia Tech. He certainly appears to have the strong character you look for in a prospect.

Summary: The Cowboys approach to the draft this year was different than I have seen for a while. There is not a lot of raw, developing projects here. As I can see, there are guys who are nearly developed and ready to contribute. Coale should step right in and help special teams - just like Wilber and Johnson. But, Coale's real test is going to be to contribute to the offense with the dependability to be that slot receiver they have been searching for. This is not easy, because that player ends up being Romo's security blanket (along with Jason Witten) when the pocket is breaking down and the ideas upfield are not working. This requires chemistry and Romo knowing you will see the coverage like he does and be where you are supposed to be. We have seen with Romo that if he doesn't believe in your dependability, he sometimes doesn't consider you as a viable option on a big play (see: Martellus Bennett). But, there is little time to acclimate to the NFL Game for Coale. They need a healthy, obvious performance in camp to keep them from scouring the waiver wire again this year at the end of camp looking for a discarded trusty veteran. Coale has a chance, but we must curb our enthusiasm until he proves worthy.

Wednesday, May 09, 2012

Draft Profile: Rd 4 - Matt Johnson - Safety - Eastern Washington



The following is the 3rd in a series of draft profiles for the Dallas Cowboys selected players from April's draft. These profiles are put together after watching significant amounts of tape from each player, and is an attempt to examine their resumes and play to get an idea of how they might fit in best with Dallas come training camp.

Matt Johnson
Eastern Washington
Strong Safety
6'1, 212
40 time: 4.53, Bench Press: 18
July 22, 1989 (22)


When you are looking at draft prospects on film, the most important thing you can possibly do is to trust your eyes and not regurgitate opinions that are being fed to you. Often times, during the spring and summer, we hear about draft prospects from two places: his former school (a coach is brought on to be interviewed) or his current employer which will say almost 100% sparkling things about a player and before long we realize that everyone that the team has drafted has a chance to be a great player.

While this is simply human instinct to always present an optimistic case to the public until proven otherwise, it is sometimes not the best idea to simply fall in line and recite the "company line" on every player that is ever signed. There is a large body of work that exists, and if you spend some time combing to find it, you can look at this evidence yourself and try to come to your own decisions.

Of course, there is no guarantee that the independent study will be any more accurate than the team-based optimism, but it at least makes you feel like you checked their math. And that is what we recently did with Matt Johnson from Eastern Washington, and the rest of the 2012 Draft Class.

And of all of the players who were taken after the top two picks (Claiborne and Crawford) on the Cowboys board, this is the player that I am most optimistic about in terms of being a guy who in 2 or 3 years they could have a real find on their hands.

In a brief summary, I think he is a fantastic safety in college, with all of the characteristics that one looks for when trying to find a playmaker at that spot. He fell down the board to #135 for any number of reasons. He tore his bicep in his senior season and missed considerable time. He went to school at Eastern Washington where he was part of the 1-AA/FCS National Championship team in 2010. But, that level of competition is not what the player will face in the NFC East. These and other characteristics have put him in a spot where he will have to prove his worth. But, I think he is up for this challenge.

If you spend some time watching him on the eye-stressing red turf at Eastern Washington, he really jumps off the screen as a playmaker. His most recognizable attribute is the way he is always rolling downhill from his deep spot in the secondary to the ball. He is a ball hawk who arrives with intentions of ending the play on the spot. He has supreme confidence in knowing where he is going and this causes a very speedy key-and-diagnose process. Surely, this is something that might be apparent only when a player becomes a senior in college and we must wait and see if he still plays with that swagger in a whole new environment where things are happening at a different speed with a different level of scrutiny if things go wrong, but his confidence and knowledge of what his defense was doing was a very impressive trait.

Then, with fluid athletic skills he seems to find the ball with great ease. Again, this must be qualified with the admission that he might have been one of the best athletes on the field in most of his games in college and that could change greatly in the big leagues, but he makes plays, blows up runs, and finds the ball. In college, his play in the secondary led to an amazing number of career interceptions (17), but I would not say that makes him a free safety. In fact, he does have some deep angle issues that might be evident at the next level where he allows the occasional route to get him turned around. But, his skills as a strong safety in the box are actually what I like most. And when today's NFL requires a safety that can play both spots so that a coordinator can interchange concepts and roles from snap to snap, Johnson seems like a real strong candidate for this with position versatility.

Safety is a very difficult position to project from the college ranks to the NFL. It does seem that many must be taken high up the board and in the 1st Round if you want a truly elite safety these days. But, there are a number of players who slip through the cracks who may not be elite, but they are very useful. Maybe one of better examples of that was in the 2005 draft when safety Jim Leonhard went undrafted after a decorated career at the University of Wisconsin. He ended up being a versatile safety that could do a number of things for Rex Ryan in both Baltimore and New York, mostly because of a great combination of recognition, aggressiveness, and speed. Now, Johnson is certainly not a punt returner nor is he a guy who can run a sub 4.4, but useful safeties fall through the cracks all of the time.

Meanwhile, Dallas has one of the easier safety ranks to break into. Since the days of wonder when the Cowboys had the combination of a young Roy Williams and a veteran Darren Woodson, the team has widely ignored the position when it comes to major investment. With the exception of giving Ken Hamlin a large extension (that he never saw the majority) they have had a series of stop gaps and developmental projects. And, in my estimation, the lack of attention here has not assisted the Cowboys quest of building an excellent secondary by any stretch. Poor safety play puts more pressure on the corners, especially, as we saw in Week 17 against Victor Cruz, that if a corner gets beat on a 5-yard out, there will be no safety assistance (not sure where Gerald Sensabaugh was going on that play) in keeping him from running 70 more yards.

Johnson does need to clean up his tackling in certain spots. This isn't to say that he is a poor tackler, but sometimes he does close with such speed and intent that he can overkill and miss. But, this aggressive play from a safety is a breath of fresh air after seeing "conservative" safety play from so many who have rolled through the spot in recent years. To make plays, a safety has to occasionally go for it and take a chance. Yes, he will get burned. I anticipate that veteran QBs will see his downhill style on film and attempt to play action over his head all day long. All of them occasionally get burned, but at least try to make something happen. It will be revealed whether Johnson can do it at the NFL level in the months to come, but for now, I think he will give them options and bring his play to the special teams. And he should be excellent there from Day 1.

Freshman and Sophomore Year Cut Ups #40:



Junior and Senior Year Cut-Ups #5:



And if you so desire, you can watch Matt Johnson's Pro Day Here.

Summary: I assume it is clear right now that I think very highly of Johnson. He was very impressive in college and may have slid down the board due to being hurt as a senior. But, he is a very smart player who was the captain of a winning team. He was also a player who intercepted more passes than just about anyone during the time he was in college. This speaks to his hands and his brain. He is the type of player that will not be rushed, but if he can become comfortable in the Rob Ryan defense, I think they can do a number of things with him, from run blitzing to deep safety. He will not make every play, but if he keeps his downhill approach, I do have high hopes for his upside that could make him a starter in the near future in this secondary. And if they find a starter at pick #135, then this draft most likely swings into the successful category.

Monday, May 07, 2012

The Aftermath of The Oddest Season Ever

Sometimes, you must return to normal to realize just how amazing a time that you had.

And, over the weekend, the Dallas Mavericks returned to the normal, painful, and gutting feeling of being easily dismissed in the NBA Playoffs. This time, it was the young and energetic legs of the Oklahoma City Thunder. And this time, it was a 4-game sweep that started with question of who the better team was with 2 very close games up north of the Red River. But, by the end of the 4th game, with hat in hand, the Mavericks nodded and shook hands with their captors, as they had been soundly defeated. It was a 4-game sweep, something that is not normal at all in the Nowitzki-era. But, the sudden end of playoff basketball all to early in the playoffs often has been recently. Except the year it wasn't.

It is normal because in 2007, Golden State had a laugh at the Mavericks and pounded them with ease. In 2008, the same went for New Orleans and the 1st round bouncing that taught us that Josh Howard has a late April birthday and likes birthday parties. It also got his coach, Avery Johnson fired.

In 2009, the Mavericks won a round in the playoffs for the first time since the 2006 Western Finals by beating up a beaten up Spurs team, and then were bullied and dismantled by the Denver Nuggets in 5 games. Dirk, who had the newspapers enjoying his personal life issues, played valiantly, and pretty much alone. In 2010, those same Spurs had their revenge - ending yet another season in 6 quick games.

A quick point of context for this lesson, of course, is that in a 30 team league, there will be 29 teams that end the year in some level of disappointment. If the goal is to win the trophy at the end of the road, then odds are very much stacked against a single team ever winning it all in a single year or in many cases, even during a generation.

But, the Mavericks, who have been very successful for years in the regular season and flirted with major playoff success on a number of occasions, used the prime of Dirk Nowitzki after the 2006 NBA Finals to win 10 of 27 (37%) playoff games over the next 4 seasons. All seemed lost.

And then, the spring of 2011 happened. When it was happening, so many Mavericks fans and observers didn't anticipate it continuing. There was very little belief at the start of the run, and during the entire 60 days or so, there was a feeling amongst more than a few that nobody better move lest the perfect alignment of humanity be thrown off and cause this good fortune to expire. But, it never did. It just kept rolling. The further they advanced, the more they believed. The more they believed, the better they played. And so on they went. All of the way they advanced through teams that were considered better (Lakers), younger (Thunder), and then the best team on the planet, a team that was better and younger, the Miami Heat.

It was altogether magical and unpredictable. A team doing something that will likely never be matched. A team - as I wrote in my book about the championship, THIS YEAR IS DIFFERENT -
"with 109 years of service time, all of it ring-less: Kidd, Nowitzki, Stojakovic, Terry, Marion, Cardinal, Stevenson, Chandler, Haywood, Barea, Brewer, Mahinmi. Combined the 12 players that made up the 2011 NBA Finals roster had accumulated 109 previous seasons of experience (not to mention 362 years of age) that had ended without a championship.

No other NBA Championship winner of the past 50 years comes remotely close to that statistic. The runner-up was the 1989 Detroit Pistons, whose cast had combined for 67 seasons of title-less basketball before winning the first rings. The 1991 Chicago Bulls could claim 52 seasons and the 1983 Philadelphia 76ers had 45 seasons before their titles. The Mavs' aggregate 109 ringless seasons is just off the charts.

"We had no champions on this team," Chandler said. "And we walked away with a team full of champions."


Think about that. Consider that the no team had ever won it all with a veteran team without any championship accomplishments before the summer of 2011. That unlikely Dallas Mavericks squad gave us a show that was unique and singular and fairy tale-like from start to finish.

So, when I tweeted on Saturday night the following: In watching the exits of 2010 and 2012, I am reminded that the miracle of 2011 was, in fact, a miracle. I was certainly not expecting that to be offensive. But, perhaps because the sweep had just happened or perhaps because everyone was dealing with that Spurs' fan that we all know that was able to crow again, the term "miracle" caused many to recoil in their chairs when reading.

Any sporting title requires a lot of things to fall just right. Perfect health, the inch of good fortune going your way, and a call here or there from the officials that works out. Momentum, belief, inexperience on the other side are all there, too. Then, match-ups that smile upon you as you avoid match-ups that might not be as pleasant. It requires, in effect, everything to bounce correctly for you to be the one team out of 30 to remain standing.

Miracle is a term I suppose I have attached to sports since my favorite sporting event of my lifetime, "the Miracle on Ice" of the 1980 Winter Olympics in Lake Placid as our team of school boys took down the men from the Soviet Union to win a very unlikely gold. On February 9, 1980, 3 days before the 1st game of the Olympics, the USA and USSR met in New York for a final exhibition game. And when Russia won 10-3, we thought we knew the margin between the two teams. So, when they met again on February 22, and the USA won before beating Finland 2 days later for the gold, you had your miracle.

I would never compare the two stories in terms of their miraculous accomplishment. But, I would tell this story: After Game 2 of the 2011 Finals, I talked to several members of the Mavericks basketball operations staff. This was the game of the Mavericks insane comeback in the final 7 minutes to steal a game in Miami and a most improbable victory. At 1-1, the team had its chance to compete now in the playoffs. Which is why I will never forget the odd admission by more than one Mavericks' operative that those first two games had depressed them. They fully now realized what a massive hill the Mavericks had to climb. Yes, the series was tied. But, now, after being manhandled for 7 1/2 of the 8 quarters in Games 1 and 2, the realized the mismatch that Miami had on them all over the floor. Was there any way they could figure out a way to beat that team 3 more times? They had their doubts.

I remember Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, and Dwyane Wade all missing shots at the buzzer that would have won games for their teams. Shots that they had made dozens of times in their careers. But, in each case, they missed those shots off the rim. An inch here and an inch there.

This isn't to say that the Mavericks 2011 was a fluke. It wasn't. They went 16-5 and never lost a Game 5 or 6 in the playoffs. And they never needed to play a Game 7. They won the title with such precision and execution that nobody can make that case.

But, it was miraculous in that nobody saw it coming. And nobody saw it leaving. They were the best team in that tournament, but if those players played another series the next month, most people would again make Miami a big favorite. The players force people to play the odds. And the odds didn't agree with the result.

They might have only been the best team in the world for that moment in time. This year, for reasons that have been well documented, the Mavericks moved on from that team. Perhaps, even they knew what they had done and that it was highly unlikely that everything would align again like that.

As the sweep reached completion on Saturday Night, it was an odd feeling. They were taken down by a team that had their top 4 leading scorers in the series born in 1988 (Kevin Durant), 1988 (Russell Westbrook), 1989 (James Harden), and 1988 (Serge Ibaka). By their years of birth, Jason Kidd was already choosing which college he would play for. Their 5th leading scorer, Derek Fisher, had won 5 titles with Los Angeles (he is the former Laker that could teach Lamar Odom a thing or two about competing and being a pro) and a major contributor to their cause. The Thunder hope this is the year that they catch everything right for the next 3 rounds. And who is to say if they will capture that tailwind?

The end for Dallas was familiar pain and extreme disappointment. And yet, it made many of us reflect on 2011 all of the more. Maybe Spurs or Lakers fans will giggle at knowing many fans told me they pulled out their copies of the 2011 Finals to watch them again. They wanted to see Tyson Chandler back in a Mavericks uniform and everything making sense all over again. They wanted to make sure that last summer was not just all a dream.

This year was a major disappointment on pretty much every level. It would be difficult to assign blame and the sooner this team can move out of this "temporary" situation and into a phase the fans can buy into long-term, the better.

But, more than anything, maybe it is that slap of reality that makes one appreciate the fantasy ride that we had left behind. And in my mind, it might be the greatest sports story this city has ever experienced. And, to me, after seeing a familiar end to another seasons, it qualifies as a sports miracle all of the more.

Saturday, May 05, 2012

Draft Profile: Rd 4 - Kyle Wilber - LB - Wake Forest


The following is the 2nd in a series of draft profiles for the Dallas Cowboys selected players from April's draft. These profiles are put together after watching significant amounts of tape from each player, and is an attempt to examine their resumes and play to get an idea of how they might fit in best with Dallas come training camp.

Kyle Wilber
Wake Forest
OLB
6'3, 249
40 time: 4.78, Bench Press: 25
April 26, 1989 (23)


When you are a team in a 3-4 defense, you are constantly looking for more linebackers. When Bill Parcells converted the defense in 2005, there were daily discussions in the media press briefings about needing to find 7 and sometimes 8 linebackers that could be counted upon so that things ran seamlessly. You can never have enough linebackers.

The Cowboys took Wilber with the #113 pick of the 2012 draft. Anytime you pick a player over 100 players deep in a draft, you concede that there will be some questions to his game, but seeing things in his skill set that you think can be developed and useful over the next 4 seasons (until his rookie contract expires). These teams spend all season fully realizing that these are the rounds in the draft (3-5) where the better teams are able to consistently hit for a higher average than the field.

After taking a hard look at Wilber in several games, it is fairly easy to see what the Cowboys want when they grabbed the linebacker where they did. He has exceptional speed and absolutely jumps off the screen when he is pursuing a play from the backside. In fact, without getting too carried away, you can almost see DeMarcus Ware chasing down a running back on a stretch play in the other direction. He is that impressive at traveling across the tackle box at impressive speed.

Also, in coverage, Wilber is quite capable. And that must be where Jason Garrett was coming from when he started the idea of Wilber being in the mix at the "SAM" position. Here was the head coach's quote: Kyle Wilber is a guy we see him as a SAM linebacker, who does an outstanding job defending the run. We feel like he has a chance to be a pass rusher from the edge. He's an outstanding special teams player and again the right kind of guy. You look at the list of the seven players we drafted. We really feel good about the kind of people they are and Kyle Wilber certainly is one of those.

This might be where Garrett will have a lot of development on his hands or we will have to disagree. "SAM" linebacker in this scheme is primarily the man tending the flank on the tight end side on any run plays. This requires him to "set the edge" and turn running plays back to the inside and there are real concerns on tape at the college level about his ability to hold up at the point of attack. There are a few spots from what we broke down where he appears to be "wearing roller skates". This is a coaching saying that was last used to describe Bobby Carpenter when the front office (Parcells) thought he was a SAM candidate out of college only to find out that he was pushed way out of the play and sometimes the screen when somebody put a block on him and he could never plant his feet to push back.

Anthony Spencer is not the best in the league at standing up to this type of "direct run" situation when a running play goes right at him, but he is far and away the best the Cowboys have and also the primary reason why the Cowboys know Victor Butler is more of the weak side variety that DeMarcus Ware is. I understand this is nuance and might not seem like a big deal, but there is a reason that Clay Matthews is constantly tested with running plays right at him up in Green Bay. If you review Super Bowl 45, you will see Pittsburgh run right at him continuously because of this same question (although nowhere as bad as Carpenter, of course). Run away from Matthews and he will run the play down. Run right at him and you can wear him out is what the book on him was out of USC.

Back to Wilber, he will get pushed around on plays right at him. The only other disconcerting element of his game is that he doesn't seem to pack much "thump" in his game. Certain linebackers jump off the screen with their physical presence - especially when surrounded by other college players who don't have NFL pedigree - but Wilber does not seem like a very big hitting presence. So, if you cannot drop anchor and if you don't hit hard, you see why he was not taken in the 2nd or 3rd round.

His pass rush is promising with some explosion on the edge. Just 3.5 sacks in his senior season should tell us to offer realistic expectations, but he is a player who will turn in explosive plays with 36 explosives (sacks + tackles for loss) in his last two seasons. His pursuit puts him around the ball and he will tackle runners for loss with regularity.

Understanding the expectation level for a player in this spot of the draft is important. 4th and 5th Rounders are often the types who have extremely quiet rookie seasons where they are merely expected to pitch in on special teams and the occasional specialty package in the defense. From there, they should be slowly groomed to do more and more in years 2 and 3. The 4th round has been a mixed bag in the post-Parcells run, with Doug Free and Tashard Choice being found there on the positive side of the ledger, but with Akwasi Owusu-Ansah and Isaiah Stanback in the "we can groom and develop this guy" category that never worked out. Meanwhile, at the linebacker position, we have Brandon Williams and Victor Butler as similarly-positioned picks that were to provide a promising young player who might turn into something. Williams did not see year #3 in Dallas after a strong career at Texas Tech and Butler is a fan favorite who has never impressed the coaches enough to work his way closer into the mix.

He wears #97 for the Demon Deacons:

Vs NC State



Vs Baylor, 2008 (very abbreviated highlights, but flashes of his speed)



Summary: Again, he is not without flaw, but you get the distinct idea that the Cowboys want to find SAM candidates who still possess great quickness. When doing that, you are always going to flirt with undersized players (Wilber weighs about 250) who are athletes so that you are not worried about their cover ability. He can clearly cover and he should be great on special teams. The question is whether he can grow into a role where teams do not try to run right at him because they question whether he is physical enough to be the SAM. He is one of 3 clear OLB reserves with Alex Albright and Butler, and I believe time will tell which OLB spot suits him the best. I think it is way too optimistic to assume he is Spencer's replacement in 2013, but that doesn't mean I don't believe he has promise. He may actually be Butler's replacement with Victor's rookie contract expiring next winter. Time will tell. He is a prospect who will need to answer questions, but a worthy idea in the middle of Round 4.

Wednesday, May 02, 2012

Draft Profile: Rd 3 - Tyrone Crawford, DE - Boise State



The following is the 1st in a series of draft profiles for the Dallas Cowboys selected players from April's draft. These profiles are put together after watching significant amounts of tape from each player, and is an attempt to examine their resumes and play to get an idea of how they might fit in best with Dallas come training camp.

Tyrone Crawford
Boise State
DE
6'4, 275
40 time: 4.85, Bench Press: 28
November 22, 1989 (22)


The most enjoyable part of the NFL Draft process for some of us who really love the game is to recognize that no matter how hard we try as media or fans to anticipate what goes on inside the Cowboys war room (or any team's, for that matter), we quickly see that we have no idea what they are thinking and who they like on draft day. Oh sure, sometimes we can piece clues together between sources and visits and various other items, but for the most part, when a name is announced, it causes many of us to scramble to figure out who a player is and what the Cowboys saw in him.

After the Cowboys selected at #6, they had a long trip to get to #81 for their next selection. As the pick approached, we all had guys that we thought might fit with the needs and interests of the Cowboys. With about 15 minutes to go before their pick, I tweeted out this message: I would really like Ta'Amu at #81. Really hard. Would settle for C Blake, WR Adams, or LB Ronnell Lewis. Ta'Amu went at Pick #109, Blake at pick #108, Adams at pick #104, and Lewis went at pick #125. Regardless of what I thought - or any other media member thought - I don't believe any of us suggested they were about to grab Boise State's Tyrone Crawford. But, they did. And I trust their ability to collect information way more than any of us on the outside.

So, let's examine Crawford; now that we know much more about him after looking at plenty of his playing tape (some of which is below for you, but Boise State is thankfully replayed plenty on television if you keep your eyes open) and try to see what the Cowboys saw when they plugged a hole with this native Canadian.

Crawford is 6'4 and weighed 275 at the NFL Combine. He is supposed to be around 280 now, and I can tell you that the Cowboys think it would not be difficult at all to get his weight to 290-295 in time with natural growth and being inside the Cowboys' weight room. But, the great news is that despite his room to grow, he is already quite strong. His 28 reps on the bench press in Indianapolis will put him near the top of the list for players at defensive end and certainly players with his arm length. When you combine his 80" wingspan and his 28 reps, you find a great combination of length and strength. This is all positive news that can be improved, as well.

He played on an exceptional Boise State roster that featured a number of draftable players, including 2 1st round picks. When watching his defensive tape, he is sometimes overshadowed by his equally impressive teammates. But, Crawford has been more than productive at Boise, making 1st team All-Mountain West and very much on the radar of those who follow his program and conference.

Shea McClellin was picked at #19 by the Chicago Bears as a DE/OLB. In the last 2 seasons, Crawford and McClellin have been bookends of productivity. In 2010, McClellin led the team with 9.5 sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss. 23 explosive plays led the team as well, but right behind him was junior college transfer Crawford, in his first taste of big time college football, with 7 sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss. Quite impressive work.

Then, in 2011, McClellin found 7 sacks, Crawford 6.5. And in tackles for loss, Crawford led the team with 13.5 and McClellin had 12.5. There is no doubt the combination fed off each other, and when you consider that Tyrone Crawford played 2 years at Boise State and accounted for 13.5 sacks and 27 tackles for loss in just 25 college games, you can see what interested the Cowboys as both a productive college player in the present tense, and a player with tremendous growth opportunities in the future.

When you watch him, a few things jump out at you. First, he does look undersized compared to the other players in the trenches, but once the ball is snapped, his size packs an impressive strength. Offensive lineman do bounce back when he hits them at the snap, and he has a the ability to get a decent push and to stand up at the point of attack. He gets to the passer often enough, but it does look like he needs a fair amount of work in technique on pass rush moves. He really doesn't seem to have any moves beyond using his quickness to get around the corner and then actually gets a lot of his production from retracing his path and getting a QB or ball carrier from behind because his motor runs high and he never quits on a play. You would like to think the Cowboys can teach him technique in using his hands and developing some set-up moves. When that happens, he might be a guy who can trouble the pass protection even more.

Against the run, there is plenty of promise, but we should understand that this might be a work in progress. On 1st and 2nd Down in the NFL, the defense depends on its DEs to stand up against direct blocks and sometimes the double team blocks that are sent in your direction to bulldoze you out of the way. He can handle himself well most of the time, but does get caved in on occasion. He also sometimes gets caught by a down block from a tight end on a play to his outside, but dealing with that comes with recognition and growth.

He has good athleticism for a DE, but you can see the stiff hips that would keep him from being a candidate for OLB. But, whether you are looking for a slicing 1-gap DE or a 2-gap player who can stand his ground, I can clearly see what the Cowboys wanted here. On plays away from him, he shows exceptional pursuit, and his speed from his spot out to the sideline will really rock your world if you have been watching Marcus Spears and Kenyon Coleman recently.

They placed a premium on players who play hard and play to the whistle, and as we go down this list of draftees, I think you will see that trait is present on all of their defensive selections. They wanted football-smarts, desire, and upside, and I think Tyrone provides all of that.

Here are some youtube cut-ups for your own personal eye-ball test, but again, watch for them on television. 2 days ago, they replayed Boise State at San Diego State and Crawford put on a nice show on that occasion:

He wears #40 for Boise:

Vs Georgia



Vs Hawaii



Summary: I think he will be a candidate to immediately step in the rotation as a DE, primarily on nickel downs at first. But, overall, the Cowboys look to have a real legitimate prospect who already makes enough plays that he is worth the investment. Once they can coach him up into a player with a full array of moves, this could be the 3-down Defensive End that can stop the madness of designated DEs that this team has been forced into over the last several years. At this position, they have had either "run stoppers" or "pass rushers" at the spot. Finally, you can see how with some work and development, Crawford could do both. With just a bit of patience, I think this is a pick the Cowboys can be pretty pleased with.

Tuesday, May 01, 2012

The Morning After: Game 2 - OKC 102, Mavericks 99 (2-0)



One more play.

The NBA game is a curious one. One that presents us with almost 3 hours of theater in which their can be hundreds of events that lead to victory. And yet, many observers often walk away wondering why they watch the 1st 75-90% of the game. Because, often, it seems that only the final few minutes - often referred to as "crunch time" - is all that truly matters.

One team gets out to a huge lead. The other team fights back. Then, they take a lead. Then the first team gets going again. Back and forth we go. Runs on both sides. But, seldom, especially in the playoffs, is anything decided before the final few minutes.

And in that portion of the game, each team will get the ball about 5 times. During those 5 possessions, the game will be decided. If you can get 3 baskets, you usually will win the game. And in this phase of the NBA playoff game, the Dallas Mavericks have gone from the team that can always figure out how to win to the team that is coming up one play short.

And that is why rash conclusions are dangerous in a situation like this. Again, in Game 2, the Oklahoma City won a game on their home court to the delight of their capacity crowd. They are over the moon with this performance and are full of confidence. And yet, their win was largely a result of two plays late in the game that they had almost no role in.

Play #1 was with 1:15 to play in the game with the Mavericks leading by a point, 97-96. Jason Terry was sliding off Dirk Nowitzki on a pick and roll on the left wing and both Russell Westbrook and Kendrick Perkins went with Terry. This left the kick back to Dirk wide open right in front of the Thunder bench. Perkins as standing in the paint. Westbrook was 12 feet away. Dirk sized up his open shot and in the background you can see a few Thunder fans holding their heads in agony because they have seen this too many times. Dirk has an unguarded look at a clutch shot that will give the Mavericks a multiple possession lead with a minute to play. He makes this shot. He did in Miami. He did in Los Angeles. He doesn't miss when it counts when you dare him to hit it wide open. But even though he held the follow-thru in his patented way, he caught the front rim as his shot was a few inches short. He missed the shot and kept the Thunder in a comfortable spot. And Oklahoma City had nothing to do with this play.

Play #2 was a mere 25 seconds later. After a great possession defensively which included Shawn Marion and Dirk both defending shots in the paint, the Thunder had an inbounds play with :02 left on the shot clock. The Thunder sent Derek Fisher over to Kevin Durant to pick Durant's man (Marion) and make him switch with Fisher's man (Jason Terry). This, of course, is the type of basic strategy that happens hundreds of times a game, to find a match-up that suits the offense. In retrospect, you wonder if the Mavericks should have been more prepared for this with Marion fighting through it a little harder or Kidd switching over to Durant, but Terry tried to take Durant in those fateful 2 seconds that might have cost Dallas Game 2. As the ball is inbounded, Terry tries to jump the route of Durant and goes for the ball. He really isn't close to his goal and instead offers the Thunder a lifeline when they did not earn one. Terry's decision should have been to play strong defense and make Durant hit a difficult shot falling out of bounds (which he might). But, instead, Terry's bump is rightly called a foul and Durant gives the Thunder a lead they never lose by hitting 2 free throws on a possession that was doomed. And Oklahoma City had very little to do with this play.

From there, Dirk missed a contested post move that bounced on the rim 3 times and we are left feeling rather similar to how we might have felt on Saturday night after Game 1. The Mavericks played well enough to win, but did not make enough plays in the final moments to achieve their victory. Instead, we are rationalizing and breaking down the final few plays and the Thunder are riding high on their way to Dallas for Game 3.

In the words of Rick Carlisle and Dirk Nowitzki, we should not dig too deep when analyzing these games. It is simply a matter of Oklahoma City "making one more play".

And, I think they are right.

But, then again, that is this NBA. That is what separates the winners from the losers every year. That is what made Jordan's Bulls better than Ewing's Knicks. It wasn't 40 point margins. It was 88-87 here, and 103-102 there. The very nature of the NBA game is one more play. Especially in the playoffs. A quick review of last year's championship run will tell the truth. It wasn't an avalanche of Mavericks' domination. It was a single play here and a single play there. And like a hot run in blackjack or your best round of golf ever, when it is over and you no longer have the hot hand, you wonder what has changed. How do you get that advantage back?

Are they too old? Are they too tired? Is it Oklahoma City's time? Did Mark Cuban mess this all up with his decisions before Christmas? Can we still blame Khloe?

Without knowing where the truth fully lies, the Mavericks are left feeling like they played 2 pretty strong and gutty road games and still find themselves in must-win territory on Thursday in Dallas. There is plenty left to improve, but there is also that sinking feeling that last year, they would have won one or both of these games by making that one more play. Last spring, Dirk hits that shot. And then every other talking point and detail does not seem nearly as important.

On the other hand, if Kobe hits that shot at the end of Game 1 last May, maybe the entire narrative of that dream playoff run turns out differently.

Tough to bite the hand of fate, when that hand has fed you so well.

Dust off and keep grinding.

Other thoughts about Game 2 in Oklahoma City:

* Dirk's effort should not be remembered for missing an open 3 late in the game. The fact is that his performance last night was one of his finest efforts. Playing with great determination and defiance. Hitting shots and not taking any garbage from the opposition. It is amazing to know that the NBA once employed the tactics of bullying Dirk and making him shy away from contact. That was a lifetime ago. This Dirk is not backing down from anyone. He isn't impressed by your muscles or scowl or the noise that comes out of your mouth. This Dirk is a ruthless, cold-blooded killer. To appreciate how tough he is now is only possible if you know what 20-year old Dirk played like. The evolution of the player is what makes his story so enjoyable. He has really grown up before our eyes and is now the man that many wondered if it were ever possible. You just love his mentality and wish the results were always as storybook as last spring.

* Which brings us to the moment in Game 2 that will be rerun the most. With 6 minutes to go in the opening quarter, Dirk hit a shot where Serge Ibaka looked to poke him in the eye inadvertently. The referees called nothing and this served to fire up Dirk even more. Next time down, Kendrick Perkins levels Marion with a pick and there is no call. Down on the other end, Dirk hits another shot in Ibaka's face and is looking as angry as ever. On Defense, Dirk is on the post with Perkins, and Perkins starts with the sharp elbow routine on his post move, then barrels in on a rebound attempt on a Durant shot that is more a chance to take a run at Dirk from behind. Dirk is waiting on him, and answers with a sharp elbow of his own and it explodes. Perkins does the normal tough-guy routine where he tries to get away from everyone holding him back while barking at Dirk from behind 5 guys. Dirk stand there and barks back. Rick Carlisle charges across the court and makes it clear to Oklahoma City that he has had it with the goon approach that started last spring with Perkins and Tyson Chandler. Perkins was simply doing his only contributing skill of getting physical and Dirk was answering the bell by showing it wasn't going to change him. In the end, it elongated the 1st Quarter, but the game went on rather peacefully. But, it does show how far the game gets out of hand when the refs completely swallow their whistles.

* And from that point on, there would be no more "prison rules". 54 fouls would be called, up a dozen from game 1, and the constant trips to the free throw line did nothing to help the flow of the game. However, these are two teams that know how to convert the freebies. When the worst-shooting performance from either team was 28-32 (Dallas, 88%), then you see that those points will be converted. Oklahoma City hit 37-39, 95%, and in a tight game like last night we certainly cannot underestimate such a thing.

* Those that refuse to want to revisit the Tyson Chandler decision may want to skip this point. Every time we look for culprits or reasons this team is not as good as last year's edition of the Mavericks, you keep coming back to letting one of your best players leave at the age of 29 for a contract that did not seem excessive (by NBA standards) in both salary and term. And yet, the Mavericks drew a curious line in the sand with Chandler and sent the real leader of this team away with the implied promise of future signings. In the meantime, a title defense and a wasted year of Nowitzki's remaining prime seems to make the decision a poor one. Further, a buyout of the disappointing Brendan Haywood (who gave the Mavericks very, very little) would have made it possible to keep Chandler, defend your title, and still be in the mix for Deron Williams in the summer. Yes, that is all water under the bridge and we should just move on, but when watching your core who worked so hard to get the trophy fighting their tails off, but being exposed because there is a giant piece missing from the puzzle, I keep coming back to it. And I think so do a lot of people who follow this team. It just doesn't make sense that the Mavericks made that decision. I feel like Mark Cuban gets most of his decisions right. But, wow, I have to believe he would privately concede that he screwed that one up. Every time someone tries to get tough with the Mavericks, every time a player drives right down the paint, and every time the Mavericks cannot secure a rebound, it is tough to forget about the greatest center in team history was here and seemed like he wanted to stay. OK. Got that out of my system. Sorry.

* Derek Fisher may be irritating and annoying, but some guys just know how to step up and do things when you need them most. Very impressive. When the Lakers sent him away, I wondered if he would contribute much in OKC. He clearly has, if last night is all he does. That was worth it. Like Peja in Game 2 against Portland last year, if a veteran gives you one playoff win contribution, he is worth the signing. I feel Delonte West may be a similar player before this series is over. He was good in Game 2, but there should be even better soon to come.

* Both teams missed enough open shots from guys who normally knock them down that whoever lost was going to point at that. Just as Dirk did, Kevin Durant missed some looks where he was not guarded by anyone. If the Thunder have a reason to feel great, it is that they are up 2-0, with Durant really struggling to find his offensive efficiency. Dallas knows how to guard him, but he didn't win 3 straight scoring titles without having nights where he cannot be guarded by anyone. If that arrives in Dallas, this could be a really quick series.

In total, Dallas still has a fine chance in this series, but their mulligans are gone. They cannot afford to lose any games in Dallas. Oklahoma City feels an ability to out-last the Mavericks at crunch time. Time is short. The playoff run is already in peril.

They have but one objective on Thursday: One more play.