Xs and Os - Week 9 - Tampa Bay

http://www.sportsdaydfw.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2015/11/19/sturms-xs-os-breakdown-greg-hardys-day

Late in the week, we finally get a chance to "look at the tape" as Jason Garrett likes to say and examine some plays that we cannot fully digest on TV. I can't promise that every week we will be able to do this, but honestly, this is my favorite exercise of the week because only here can you fully appreciate how advanced and complex the NFL game can be sometimes.

Here, we are not looking to call anyone out, and we surely want to leave open the possibility of our eyes deceiving us and more than anything, I want to admit that I don't have the benefit of the coaches telling me what coverage they were in. So, sometimes, this diagnosis will be "pretty sure" rather than "100% sure" even though I am trying to get it right. I will make calls and try to hunt down the right answer, but I will just admit right here that we will try our best to be accurate but invariably, I will see something wrong.

But, let's pick plays that are interesting but not played out by this point of the week and have some fun talking Xs and Os. Feel free to tweet me @SportsSturm when a game shows you a play that you would like broken down and I will attempt to include it in this post. 

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Normally, I grab plays that you all request about the game that just happened and break them down.  Today, I am calling an audible and doing something a little different.  Partly because I have grown weary of breaking down another Cowboys loss where they don't score even a touchdown (3 of the last 5 games - no touchdowns) and partly because I was asked to do something this week by a friend and media brother.

My main man and Ticket Morning Muser George Dunham, is the biggest Cowboys lifer I know.  He followed this team since his birth, considers Danny White a hero, was the longtime voice at Texas Stadium, and promises that Tom Landry would have never allowed Rowdy to exist.  

He loves this team and what it stands for.  He doesn't love every decision they have ever made, and I think he is comfortable telling the world that he certainly doesn't think this team needed Greg Hardy's considerable issues on this roster.

George asked me to take a close look at Hardy this week and his play against Tampa Bay.  The premise that is out there is that Hardy may have begun to check out a bit this week after some Twitter controversy and a missed meeting, the subsequent scolding, and then even a sideline disagreement with DeMarcus Lawrence.  With each passing loss, the questions come up about what is the point of Hardy if the season becomes a complete lost cause.  Might they just cut ties and admit the whole thing was a mistake?  And he is not the only person with this feeling.  George also knows I am a big fan of the player (from a Xs and Os standpoint) and wanted my eyes to look at the performance to make sure he wasn't being biased.  

So, he detailed a number of plays here that might suggest that Hardy is not the monster he was against New England and that his performance has dropped way off in just a month.  Then, I will present a number of plays that say that despite the idea that he "seemed quiet", he is still playing his tail off and is just getting double and triple teamed and therefore needs more help. 

Let's see what happens when we pop on the tape.

The Bad Tape of Hardy's Afternoon:

These are the plays that George directed me to that required more from Hardy:

Hardy is locked up with #62 Evan Smith and never seems to be able to shake free.  Then he gives a normal jog to the QB.  

On this run, Hardy is lined up by the rookie Left Tackle #76 Donovan Smith and looks like he is participating in a practice.  There is no pop here and no real intensity from Hardy.  

This one looks like a pretty normal pass rush that doesn't materialize.  I don't have a big issue with this, as it is simply a normal play for me.

Here he is rushing against #76 Smith again and gets chipped by the RB #34 Sims and gets toppled.  It was sort of shocking to see him get knocked off his feet like this unremarkable hit, but again, it does happen.  I wouldn't say that you can suggest this is an abnormal play.  

Here is a massive down block from a tight end that blindsides Hardy (right defensive end again) and knocks him way out of the play.  I think this would argue that Tampa Bay was attempting to slow Hardy down by attacking him, which is a standard practice for a destroyer like Hardy.  I don't think it suggests he has lowered his effort or performance levels.

Here Hardy is unable to budge #70- Logan Mankins and seems to be offering a practice-level motor.  Not his best snap of the game, to say the least. 

Hardy against Donovan Smith again here and I have no issues at all with his effort level as he tries to pinch in and close down that hole.  It appears you are getting everything he has late in the game.  

And then this one which caused many to continue to have the theory that he is not the same guy when he realizes it is a run play.  This is rookie backup lineman #64 Kevin Pamphile and he gets Hardy pushed right past the runner without really being able to anchor and help make a play on the runner.

OK.  So those were the plays that were provided by George yesterday and I can see a few that might be considered "loafs" and a few others where you can see how much Tampa is trying to take a little starch out of his shirts by striking him before he can strike them.  Again, that is trench warfare in the NFL.  

Also, he does look like he tired a bit as the game went on, which was surely true of any player on a sunny day in Tampa.  Now, I went through the same game and pulled a few plays that I think demonstrates he is the same force he always is, but he just didn't have the tangible stats that show his results.  I think you could say it was a quiet statistical day without argument.  But, I don't that that equates to a drop in RPMs or effort.

The Good Tape of Hardy's Afternoon:

Here on a stunt with Crawford, Hardy barrels down the middle and lays a lick on Winston.

Another high effort play where he employs a spin and again is just a moment late.  But, his "dancing bear" movement skills almost get home.

This one shows what he is all about.  Look at him at RDE closing all the way across the field on a full sprint and then rushing Winston's throw and closing down the QB from behind.

Much better job here against the run and a tackle for loss as Hardy sheds Donovan Smith and gets Martin behind the line.

He doesn't get too much done here, but it does demonstrate that he is playing his tail off as he starts in the LT/LG B-Gap and then works down the line against the center and RG.  I might argue that this shows that he is playing hard on most snaps.

Not only does this show effort, but it shows elite effort and elite skills.  Hardy is so good that when you see this several times a game, you understand why certain teams are willing to put up with his nonsense.  This doesn't require a coaching background to see how awesome this is.  It seems pretty clear he can beat Jameis Winston in a foot race.

One more...

This is the play where Heath is called for the defensive holding and led to the game's only touchdown.  Look again how close Hardy is to getting home.  He flushes Winston out and that led to Winston realizing he can make a play for the end zone on 3rd and goal.   

I might argue that Hardy was close to several sacks.  Is every play great?  No, but percentage-wise, I would argue he flashes more time than anyone over the course of 3 hours.  Over 60 plays, you might be able to pick the best 5 or worst 5 to make any case you would like.

I would also argue pretty clearly that he is the best defensive player this team has.  From a Splash Play standpoint, he has 11.5 in just 5 games.  The team leader has 12 over 9 games.  Now, I admit George and I had a different view back in March when the Cowboys made this decision, so perhaps there is confirmation bias at work from each of us.   And, it is reasonable to assume that like any pass-rusher, his motor runs hotter when he sees a sack opportunity over plugging another run play.  That is not uncommon.

But, the fact that he has 4 sacks, 8 QB hits, and 9 more QB hurries in 5 games (a pace over the season for 13 sacks) suggests he is as disruptive a defensive linemen as the Cowboys have had since the prime of DeMarcus Ware.  This is purely a study from his On-Field work, but from where I sit, he has been the same dominant player he was in Carolina.  

Anyway, I thought you would enjoy George and I both making our cases and you are certainly now able to look at all of these plays and decide for yourself what you think.  

Marinelli Report - Week 7 - Seattle

It is pretty clear that no statistic correlates more to winning in football than the turnover ratio.  Over the course of my time keeping track, the NFL has had a very steady win correlation for teams winning the turnover ratio in any given game that stays over 75% and often even 80%.  It is vital that a team controls this number and as we have detailed every week, the Cowboys have definitely been on the wrong side of that one.

But, let's pursue some new ground this week and at least make you aware of the belief that many coaches in football (at all levels) are emphasizing more and more as it correlates to the result and has to be taken care of very carefully.

That is the explosive play - plays of 20 yards or more.  The premise is that the team that finishes on top with more explosive plays than the opponent will get the win.  For me, while it doesn't seem to have as close a correlation as turnovers with the winner, we can all get behind the rather obvious idea that since the beginning of time, big plays are a horrible characteristic for a defense and a wonderful one for the offense.

A team that gives up many big plays is generally awful and a team that gives up hardly any (by league standards) has a chance to be elite.  Seattle has led the league in each of the last 2 seasons, so I tend to buy this premise. 

In 2015, despite the annoying inability to get the football from the opponent after doing it so well in 2014 (31 takeaways last season, 4 so far this year), the Cowboys have put together 2 months of not allowing big plays.  This is a rather exciting development that could keep the Cowboys in the mix all the way to the finish line. 

Knowing that they have played Eli Manning, Sam Bradford, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Eli Manning, and Russell Wilson, it stands to reason that the big plays would have been a real issue in the front half of the schedule.  Only Bradford would not rank amongst the better QBs in the league on that list.  Yet, the Cowboys defense ranks 3rd in the NFL in explosives allowed. 

Here is how that compares with other seasons in recent memory for the Cowboys:

Even though the differences in that statistic do not appear significant, you should know that the best in the league are usually down under three per game, and the worst are near five per game.   Over those 7 seasons listed on the graphic, the Cowboys have never ranked in the top 5.  In 2013, they were 31st.  But, this year, they are ranked 3rd in the league and have a chance to improve upon that with the list of Quarterbacks they have coming up. 

This should be seen as a very interesting and exciting development if it can be maintained.

Why is it happening?  I think it does go back to the idea that since Rod Marinelli has taken over for the Cowboys, the team has stopped blitzing anywhere close to at a league rate.   This may lower the potential for big plays from the defense, but it also dramatically seems to cut down on the big plays against the defense.  Fewer people rushing means more people to round up the man with the ball downfield before a play gets worse.   

It is an interesting theory, but know in those 7 years above, the Cowboys peaked at a 34% blitz rate in 2010 - the same year they were 27th in explosives allowed.  Last year, they dropped to 22.9% in blitzing and only allowed 57 explosives all year. 

Now, in 2015, in a season where they blitz at what appears to be franchise low since we started tracking the results, the Cowboys only send pressure about 15% of the time, and also have only given up 22 explosive plays all year.  That puts them on pace for allowing 50 this season - which would easily be the lowest they have allowed on record.

That clearly appeared to be the overall premise against the Seahawks.  The eye test indicated that they played more zone defense on Sunday than they had at any other time this season, surely out of fear for Russell Wilson running the ball when he sees man coverage.  They wanted to keep him in the pocket (something we might see more with Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers ahead) and to do so, they had zone players with their eyes on the QB most of the day.

Seattle only had a single 20-yard play all day (the Touchdown pass down the seam to TE Luke Willson), so you would have to say it certainly worked.  They also did generate a turnover and blocked a field goal.  All in all, you would have to conclude the defense did - for the 2nd week in a row - enough to win a game.  If you are Rod Marinelli, you have to continue to sell the message that the defense is doing well and has to keep digging hard.

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On to some other items about the defense.  I am asked quite a bit about my evaluations of the linebacking situation - especially since Rolando McClain has returned in Week 5 against the Patriots.  That move inserted the veteran linebacker who was so excellent in 2014, and pretty much removed Anthony Hitchens from the lineup.  In the last 3 weeks, Hitchens has seen his snaps per game fall from 54.5 per game to 13.  

Instead, McClain has been playing alongside Sean Lee.  This was the vision so many of us hoped to see with Lee and the Will LB and McClain in the middle running down plays like only he can.  He was so good in 2014 that surely the tandem would only improve the defense.  

So, what is going on?  Lee's production has pretty much stalled completely since Week 3 and McClain just looks like he has aged 5 years in the last 12 months.  That is seldom going to be seen as a compliment.

Let's show you what I am talking about - First, look at 2 of my favorite plays in 2014 that McClain made.  Notice the ferocity and the determination to destroy a play:

Just look at those.  Beautiful work from a vicious tackler who will not let you mess with his territory.  

Now, compare those 2 great plays from 2014 with these 2 odd and bothersome moments from Sunday.

He looks slow, unsure, and perhaps uninterested.  He is clearly spying Wilson on the 2nd play and gets faked out.  But, then, upon his recovery, he looks like a player who has no catchup speed whatsoever.  The top play where he is headed to the sideline to blow up a quick WR screen, he appears to be a bystander who has teammates passing him on their way to the play on both sides of him.

These two plays suggest one of those situations where you almost hope he is hurt - at least that would explain a player who needs to be replaced with Hitchens as soon as possible if this is what we are going to see.  

Data - Week 8 - Seattle 

If you look at the numbers against the Seahawks, you will see that for the most part the defense did a pretty solid job with almost no big plays and the yards per play was very low.  Unfortunately, in a game where Russell Okung could not play, the Cowboys could not generate a single sack against an offensive line that has given up 31 already this season.

That is certainly a bit disappointing, but I think the Seahawks made it an initiative to make sure they did not ask the pass protection crew to have to stand their ground very much.  They were getting the ball out quite quickly and not challenging the Cowboys pass rush head on very often.

SPLASH PLAYS - SEATTLE

Another week of splash plays, another week of splash plays with Greg Hardy and Byron Jones all over it.

Hardy continues to run down every play on film.  I imagine, when Marinelli is calculating his "loaf" plays (55), he is not seeing 76 much.  

But, he did put this splash play on the board.  Actually got 2 splashes for this.  

Here is the new season-total splash board - Good news and Bad News when you look at this.  Good news is that Sean Lee has been good (awful quiet recently) and Hardy and Jones have been fantastic since the bye week.  The bad news is that we are not seeing the production of 2014 from many of those players returning.  Instead of Hardy, Lee, and Jones enhancing the production, it almost seems they have merely replaced it.  DeMarcus Lawrence is close to many plays, but the production of Tyrone Crawford and Jeremy Mincey is down and somewhat bothersome.

Here is the Russell Wilson throw chart:

You can see how he uses a big part of the field between seam passes to tight ends, his trademark comeback routes to the sideline, and of course, the frequent passes to the flanks.

Now, here is the Cowboys pass rush plan against Wilson.  Again, no blitzing and keep him in the pocket.  Very predictable and you would have to say, effective.  

And now, below, here is the season to date pass rush tendencies:

And expressed another way, here are the blitz totals week-to-week:

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

I continue to feel some optimism for the 2015 Cowboys because I am seeing a defensive performance that passes most of the tests.  Yes, they are going to need some 3-takeaway games and a few 4-sack games wouldn't hurt, either.  But, overall, on a play to play basis, there isn't many things to complain about.  

You would like to see your defense make plays and even score points, but the fundamental charge of any defense is to resist succumbing to the attacks of the opposition.  From just about every angle, the defense has hung in there on most challenges - the 2nd half vs Atlanta and the 2nd half vs New England were not good enough - and overall they did their parts well.

Greg Hardy has raised the intimidation and respect from opponents as you can see how their game plans are now altered to work around him.  We are also seeing Byron Jones forcing his way onto the field and the Cowboys are even trying to get better safety play as they actually played Jeff Heath more snaps than JJ Wilcox (who appeared completely fit as he was on special teams all day).  

Now, they get another chance to deal with DeMarco Murray and the Eagles offense that they so dominated back in Week 2 without Hardy.  Clearly, without reasonable QB play, the onus falls to the defense to carry the load.  

The season may hinge on whether they can do it themselves.  

Xs and Os - Week 5 - Patriots

Late in the week, we finally get a chance to "look at the tape" as Jason Garrett likes to say and examine some plays that we cannot fully digest on TV. I can't promise that every week we will be able to do this, but honestly, this is my favorite exercise of the week because only here can you fully appreciate how advanced and complex the NFL game can be sometimes.

Here, we are not looking to call anyone out, and we surely want to leave open the possibility of our eyes deceiving us and more than anything, I want to admit that I don't have the benefit of the coaches telling me what coverage they were in. So, sometimes, this diagnosis will be "pretty sure" rather than "100% sure" even though I am trying to get it right. I will make calls and try to hunt down the right answer, but I will just admit right here that we will try our best to be accurate but invariably, I will see something wrong.

But, let's pick plays that are interesting but not played out by this point of the week and have some fun talking Xs and Os. Feel free to tweet me @SportsSturm when a game shows you a play that you would like broken down and I will attempt to include it in this post. 

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Ok, here are the 3 things I have selected to look at from the Patriots game.  There were several more that I could have chosen, but with your assistance, we will settle on these 3 and then pretend that game never happened and get ready for the Giants in 10 days time.

Here we go - we will start with happier news:

1) - Greg Hardy Is Very Good at Playing Football

We already knew that, and the Cowboys clearly were banking on the hassle of dealing with his baggage off the field would be out-weighed by the fact that on his day he is one of the best 10 defensive linemen in football.  I don't want to get carried away with career superlatives, but I think we can at least comfortably say that.

What makes him so impressive is on display on this sack above.  He is going against the highly-rated Nate Solder, the left tackle for the Patriots who was lost for the year when he tore his bicep on one of these plays.  Hardy sets him up with a fake bull-rush with the 2 hands to the chest and then just goes around the corner when Solder is flat-footed.  I have never thought Solder was too good against edge rushes, but this is pretty ridiculous.  So much so that the "where did that come?" from gesture from Tom Brady is pretty solid.  

This is a 3-man rush and plays like this on film will certainly get the attention of the league.  They will give their tackles help against Hardy which in turn should give less help for the others on the line and that is when you will see the overall sack numbers increase across the board.  Hardy is causing a diversion for his line.  Ideal.

Here is his other sack.  Marcus Cannon is here and this time Hardy shows his agility for his size which is pretty phenomenal, too.  He just dips his inside shoulder under Cannon and again gets to the blindside of Brady.

This is surprising because it is a quick moving play.  Play-action with a quick hitting pass to the flat is all they want to do, but Cannon hardly even touches Hardy and the twitch gets a sack and knocks the ball loose.  I have been wondering if this fumble would have passed the scrutiny of replay if the ball was recovered by Dallas, but either way, it demonstrates Hardy better be taken seriously.

This last play is what I really like.  It is the 4th Quarter and the game is lost.  The Patriots are driving again and the play is away from Greg Hardy.  What is he all about?  Is he a Marinelli player who is making sure he is never guilty of a loaf?  Does his motor run hot?  You be the judge.  

Here is a run to the opposite side to Dion Lewis.  Look at Hardy run the play down and bring the pain when Lewis makes the mistake of cutting back against Sean Lee.  He gets up and has some words for Lewis.  He is playing each play hard and looking to make an impact.  

Plenty has been written about Hardy, but when it comes to football, it would be reasonable to recognize him for what he is - a real impressive talent.  Some may be as strong and some may be as quick and some may have the motor.  He seems to combine all 3 at a pretty elite level.  

2.  Pass Protection From the RB Position Struggled

I spent a lot of time looking at the RB stable back in the summer.  One thing we all talked about at great length was the idea of filling the DeMarco Murray role of dependably picking up the blitzing LB to save Romo on a big 3rd Down.  Being a 3rd Down back is often about moving the chains for a RB, but for Dallas, it is also the personal protector of Romo.  Nobody thought Joseph Randle was an ideal fit, but Darren McFadden showed in Oakland that this was one of his remaining redeemable qualities.

Unfortunately, that skill set was tested twice early in Sunday's Game and he failed both.  Once he was saved by a penalty, but let's look at them both.

First, 1Q - 11:17 and the Cowboys face 3rd and 3.  

The Patriots are sitting on Witten and Beasley at the sticks, and therefore taking away Weeden's 3rd and short tendencies.  Then, they run a LB blitz (but still just a 4-man rush) from the middle of the line to get in Weeden's face.  First 91-Collins takes Frederick to the right side of the OL and then 54-Hightower comes right down Main Street to challenge 20-McFadden.  Darren should keep his feet and take on a LB head-on, but decides to try to cut the legs, instead.  Sometimes, this works like a charm.  Other times, it only delays Hightower getting to the QB.  Because McFadden lost so quickly, Weeden never had a chance.  This is 3rd and 3.  You should be able to get this protected, because it doesn't take long to run the routes.  But, the Patriots still got home.  Let's look at the coverage.

Beasley is at the top and is getting double teamed (inside-outside) so that either way on his option route is dead.  Witten is in the left slot and you can see they have the same plan.  If the Cowboys are going to find something on 3rd Down, it is going to have to be Gavin Escobar or Terrance Williams.  

Weeden, of course, wants 82 or 11.  The Patriots are taking that away.  And now the protection broke.  

Punt.

Next possession.  1Q - 7:07 - 3rd and 2.  

This time the Cowboys are trying to cross up tendencies with Weeden under center.  Maybe this idea will work.  

This is a tougher ask of McFadden.  He has to carry out a play-action run and then get the LB.  The Patriots aren't buying the deception and are sending 91-Collins right off the back shoulder of 90-Malcom Brown.  McFadden and Frederick communicate on each play who has which A-Gap because the guards are occupied with their own guys and cannot help 72.  Frederick goes toward RG with Brown slightly, but Collins still is looking to blow by McFadden in the opposite gap.  It is basically cat and mouse.  Collins is going to try to get McFadden to think he is coming between Leary and Frederick when he is actually shooting the gap between Martin and Frederick.  Again, McFadden, in fairness, has to carry out the fake before he can do much.  

Now, this play was nullified by a hold on 93-Sheard who grabbed some of Witten's jersey, but it still shows how the Patriots were not impressed with the Cowboys 3rd Down ideas.  They figured them all out with ease.

Same play, other view.  Again, 2 on Beasley and 2 on Witten.  It is pretty good schematic planning for New England and it seems to be the plan moving forward for any defense until Dez returns.

3.  Mo Claiborne's Rough Outing

One of the best stories of 2015 is the resurgence of Morris Claiborne.  He appears to finally have some confidence and performances that he can really be proud of.  For the most part, over the first 4 weeks, he has done his best work in the NFL and has seldom busted in his coverage.  And, each week, the Cowboys keep putting more on his plate in this new-found desire to run man coverage against any and all opponents.  

Last week, it was Brandin Cooks and he responded well.  But was he given too much against Brady and Julian Edelman?  

First play of the game, they attack him by running that man coverage through traffic.  

Now, here below is a play on the final drive before halftime where Edelman is staying alive for Brady with a Dig Route across the middle where he gets leverage on 24 as the Cowboys are in a Cover 3 and there isn't much help to the middle of the field.  Nice job by Brady.

Next, Edelman puts on a real nice move at the line where Claiborne is waiting on another pick, and actually just falls and Edelman gets an easy gain when Brady spots it.

This last one is maddening to Cowboys' fans because it is clearly a pick.  But, Amendola never touches Claiborne (in the slot at the top) and therefore you can't call an intended pick that never actually makes contact.  Have a look.  We all know what is happening, but if you are only faking a pick, you cannot expect that to be called.  Claiborne has no real way to work with this and the Cowboys have to expect to deal with these if they remain in man, but it turned into the biggest play (by far) of the day.

Have a look:

I realize they touch, but it is never initiated by the WR of New England.  Is it illegal?  Only if it gets called, and as a neutral, I just don't think that will ever draw a flag.  

The Patriots run a lot of pick plays and get called for Offensive Pass Interference quite a bit.  But, the cumulative effect of employing it seems to be in the heads of the DBs that are trying to play against it.  That seems just as valuable to have them constantly doing the mental gymnastics to deal with the threat.   And that might do as much damage as the reality of it all.

Edelman was thrown 5 balls and caught 4 for 120 yards.  Claiborne had his biggest challenge and it was a tough day.  But, I still think overall this year he has been solid.  

Let's be happy they won't see New England again anytime soon.  They are very good at what they do and nobody stops it.