Marinelli Report - Week 10 - Miami

http://www.sportsdaydfw.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2015/11/25/sturms-marinelli-report-miami-gave-defense-rest-thanksgiving-showdown

In terms of great military minds, none other than George Washington is credited with uttering a phrase that resembled one of our favorite clichés today used in football:

"The best defense is a good offense."

To use our friends at Wikipedia, it is described thusly, "Generally, the idea is that strong offensive action will preoccupy the opposition and ultimately hinder its ability to mount an opposing counterattack, leading to a strategic advantage."

So, as we look at the Cowboys performance against the Miami Dolphins and then turn it forward to examine their approach to Carolina and any future opponents, we are left to wonder about how many of our perceptions of this defense are linked directly to the QB that runs the offense. 

Yes, there have been many a defense that have carried a team and overcome the incompetence of their offense, but in the case of the Dallas Cowboys, based on a sample from 2014-2015, this is, quite clearly, a different defense when they are protected.

We have discussed this at length.  To review, there are a number of reasons that the presence and health of Tony Romo can aid the defense, but the two big ones are the following:

A)  When the offense is playing with any level of quality, the number of snaps the defense must face and the time of possession advantages swing dramatically.  It wasn't always the case, but in the last 2 seasons, the Cowboys offense appears to be trying to control the game with long, methodical drives that take 12-15 snaps and eat 6-8 minutes each time they are on the field.  A reminder from Sunday was that in all 4 Quarters of the game, the Cowboys had the ball for at least 9 minutes.  All 4!  Any brilliant deduction would realize that this means the defense was able to play less than 6 minutes in all 4 Quarters.  The defense controls this by getting off the field (Miami was 1-10 on 3rd downs, 0-1 on 4th Downs), but the Dallas offense controls it more by never giving up the ball.

B)   When the defense is on the field, it is often with the lead.  This allows them to play the type of aggressive defense that leads to sacks and turnovers, while the opposition is also playing an aggressive style of offense (because they trail in the game) and this leads directly to sacks and turnovers, too (if they are not precise).  The defense can play downhill and "pin their ears back" and go get the QB.  The only team in the NFL without a 4th Quarter sack until Sunday was the Dallas Cowboys.  Now, they have 3. 

Sunday was pretty special, though, from many standpoints.  To be honest, it takes two parties to conspire for these results and Miami's offensive frustrations certainly helped.   In other words, you don't get to play the Dolphins every week.   Miami had 41 plays on Sunday.  This is the lowest number of plays the Cowboys have allowed in any game against any opponent since 1996!  That, as you can see below, was the game they played in Miami against Jimmy Johnson's Dolphins in the very same stadium against the very same opponent.  Amazing.

So, they didn't run any plays, they didn't have any time of possession, and they didn't have a single drive of more than 5 plays!  Think about how crazy that is.  No rhythm, no consistency, and certainly no success on 3rd down.  The Cowboys deserve some credit for that, but I wouldn't expect Cam Newton to go 1-10 on 3rd down.

Another beautiful thing happened on Sunday as the Cowboys posted their first defensive touchdown of 2015.  They had 3 in 2014 and 5 in 2015, but this is the first time they were able to actually put points on the board this season.   Of course, they still remain dead last in takeaways with 7 for the season and have the thrill to play the best team in the NFL in takeaways on Thursday with Carolina.  That would be the +13 Panthers with 25 takeaways against the -9 Cowboys with just 7 takeaways.

Let's look at this Pick 6 from Rolando McClain below.  

It is good old "Cover 1 Robber" which is one of the most common coverages the Cowboys run (and most of the NFL, for that matter).  Back a decade, Cover 2 and all of its derivatives were used as the league was trying to make an opponent methodically drive down the field without any huge plays.  

But, over the course of time, this seemed to cause teams to put horizontal stretch passing plays in and also emphasize the run game because if you have 2 high safeties, you cannot get a numbers advantage in the box.  So, to adjust, teams started playing more with what amounts to a safety high and a safety "in the hole".  This can often be a LB who is playing "shallow center field" and he can do a number of things a high safety can't do.  He can be used as that extra defender in the box against the run, he can blitz, or he can "sugar" a blitz (appear to the QB like he is coming) and then back off and get in a passing lane by reading the eyes of the QB.   

Which happened here:

As you can see, the man coverage uses a "trail" technique where they are basically chasing their men and this often leads to a QB leading his man with a throw - right into the robber who is sitting on the route.  But, in this case, Ryan Tannehill sure appears to think Rolando McClain is rushing and therefore should have an easy pitch and catch with Greg Jennings into wide open space once he cross the face of his man on the slant from the slot as he notes Tyler Patmon - his man - is lined up off and soft in his coverage.  Tannehill thinks this an easy completion.  Watch Sean Lee.  He is only rushing if his RB stays in to block.  It is also fun to watch him celebrate.  

This angle shows that McClain is about to chase the underneath tight end and then sees Tannehill telegraphing his intentions.  Rolando has been disappointing at times this year, but this shows real ability to catch this pass that is fired at strong velocity and walks into the end zone.  Really good work there.

The Cowboys are pretty committed to various types of Cover 1 Man this season, and for the first time, it generated a real big turnover for them.  If you want to read more about this coverage, James Light has a nice write up on the origins and the many other ways it can be applied here. 

WEEKLY DATA - WEEK 10 - MIAMI

One of the weirdest elements of Sunday was how little the Dolphins got Lamar Miller going.  The Cowboys were not stopping him with any regularity and he had piled up 7 carries and 44 yards on the ground along with 2 catches for 11 more.  9 touches found 55 yards and yet they stopped using him altogether.  I really think the Dolphins made themselves very easy to defend on Sunday, so we should temper our enthusiasm on the great results until we see more of it.  

It has been over 2 seasons since the Cowboys have played a game in which they only allowed 1 3rd down conversion - that was September of 2013 against Sam Bradford and the Rams.  In other words, Miami's offense appears lost and without a clue right now.

RYAN TANNEHILL THROW CHART

Tannehill did connect on a few occasions as he went after Byron Jones in man coverage and connected a few times.  In fact, the Cowboys barely avoided a few more disasters as Brandon Carr broke up another play over the top and the Dolphins were trying to get a vertical game going.  The Cowboys have to know that if they remain in man coverage, teams are going to go vertical and take shots - especially with the health of the defensive backs in question.

SPLASH PLAYS - WEEK 10 - MIAMI

The team has 134 splash plays in 10 games, so you can see the average is about 13.5 a game.  On Sunday, in just 41 snaps they accumulated 14, although the McClain INT was worth 2 as I reward one on the pick and one on the return since the play is so vital.  I also award splashes when a player draws a penalty that was committed to prevent a splash play.  The Cowboys were held 3 times and chop blocked a 4th and if there is anything that kills a drive, it is a nice 10 or 15 yard offensive penalty.  Like I said, the Dolphins participated in their own demise pretty heavily on Sunday.

As usual, if you think I missed any or dispute those findings, drop me an email.  It is all done with the eyeball test, so sometimes I might miss one.

SEASON TOTALS - SPLASH PLAYS

Pretty remarkable that Hardy has played in only 6 games but has shot to the top of the team that quickly and also remarkable he is joined by a rookie defensive back at the top.   Hardy may not make plays all the time, but he plays hard and is receiving a ton of attention from the opponent.  Would love to see Tyrone Crawford and Rolando McClain get on a roll here down the stretch.  

COWBOYS PASS RUSH

As you can see, the Cowboys laid back on the pass rush and were very selective on how often they brought the blitz.  This is what they normally do, after that odd approach against Jameis Winston the week before where they blitzed much more.

In general, they want to be below 20%.  5 of 27 this past week.  I bet they are really careful with Cam Newton tomorrow.

And the overall season numbers for pass rushers by down:

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS - MIAMI

This tracks plays of 20 yards+ that the team emphasizes (as does every defense at every level of football).  We do this to see how many are being allowed and what sort of rusher deployment may have affected it.

For a team that barely had 200 yards of total offense, you can see that the Dolphins were relatively explosive on Sunday.  Usually, you don't see this many big passes with that poor a total output.  

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

It is an odd game to evaluate because they were never really challenged and they didn't play that much.  Somehow, the Cowboys won the snap +/- by 27 with 68 offensive snaps and only 41 defensive.  I am not sure I can recall a difference that high.

Regardless, the offense might have some fatigue issues tomorrow after wrestling with that Dolphins front all day, but the defense should be pretty fresh.  They will need it, because Carolina will test your organization and fundamentals with that run game and the confusion at the mesh point where Cam Newton uses his RB, FB, and himself to make sure you have all 3 of his triple options accounted for.  Then, he can also drop back and fire some darts with great effectiveness.  In other words, I am confounded by how many people think Cam Newton is not that good of a QB, because if you add in all of the elements of his position, he is very good.  Somehow, one of the most publicized athletes in the sport seems under-rated from an actual skill standpoint.  

This is the test that will likely make or break the season.  A win will invigorate the team and put the NFC East on notice.  A loss might begin a December of playing out the string.  If ever you needed to dial up the defense to make a few plays and assist the offense which has to go against a fantastic Panthers defense, this would be the day.

For one day late in 2015, at least, the Cowboys find themselves in a heavyweight fight with great relevance.  But, this is one they have to put in the win column.

The defense will need to step up and make a stand.

Marinelli Report - Week 7 - Seattle

It is pretty clear that no statistic correlates more to winning in football than the turnover ratio.  Over the course of my time keeping track, the NFL has had a very steady win correlation for teams winning the turnover ratio in any given game that stays over 75% and often even 80%.  It is vital that a team controls this number and as we have detailed every week, the Cowboys have definitely been on the wrong side of that one.

But, let's pursue some new ground this week and at least make you aware of the belief that many coaches in football (at all levels) are emphasizing more and more as it correlates to the result and has to be taken care of very carefully.

That is the explosive play - plays of 20 yards or more.  The premise is that the team that finishes on top with more explosive plays than the opponent will get the win.  For me, while it doesn't seem to have as close a correlation as turnovers with the winner, we can all get behind the rather obvious idea that since the beginning of time, big plays are a horrible characteristic for a defense and a wonderful one for the offense.

A team that gives up many big plays is generally awful and a team that gives up hardly any (by league standards) has a chance to be elite.  Seattle has led the league in each of the last 2 seasons, so I tend to buy this premise. 

In 2015, despite the annoying inability to get the football from the opponent after doing it so well in 2014 (31 takeaways last season, 4 so far this year), the Cowboys have put together 2 months of not allowing big plays.  This is a rather exciting development that could keep the Cowboys in the mix all the way to the finish line. 

Knowing that they have played Eli Manning, Sam Bradford, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Eli Manning, and Russell Wilson, it stands to reason that the big plays would have been a real issue in the front half of the schedule.  Only Bradford would not rank amongst the better QBs in the league on that list.  Yet, the Cowboys defense ranks 3rd in the NFL in explosives allowed. 

Here is how that compares with other seasons in recent memory for the Cowboys:

Even though the differences in that statistic do not appear significant, you should know that the best in the league are usually down under three per game, and the worst are near five per game.   Over those 7 seasons listed on the graphic, the Cowboys have never ranked in the top 5.  In 2013, they were 31st.  But, this year, they are ranked 3rd in the league and have a chance to improve upon that with the list of Quarterbacks they have coming up. 

This should be seen as a very interesting and exciting development if it can be maintained.

Why is it happening?  I think it does go back to the idea that since Rod Marinelli has taken over for the Cowboys, the team has stopped blitzing anywhere close to at a league rate.   This may lower the potential for big plays from the defense, but it also dramatically seems to cut down on the big plays against the defense.  Fewer people rushing means more people to round up the man with the ball downfield before a play gets worse.   

It is an interesting theory, but know in those 7 years above, the Cowboys peaked at a 34% blitz rate in 2010 - the same year they were 27th in explosives allowed.  Last year, they dropped to 22.9% in blitzing and only allowed 57 explosives all year. 

Now, in 2015, in a season where they blitz at what appears to be franchise low since we started tracking the results, the Cowboys only send pressure about 15% of the time, and also have only given up 22 explosive plays all year.  That puts them on pace for allowing 50 this season - which would easily be the lowest they have allowed on record.

That clearly appeared to be the overall premise against the Seahawks.  The eye test indicated that they played more zone defense on Sunday than they had at any other time this season, surely out of fear for Russell Wilson running the ball when he sees man coverage.  They wanted to keep him in the pocket (something we might see more with Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers ahead) and to do so, they had zone players with their eyes on the QB most of the day.

Seattle only had a single 20-yard play all day (the Touchdown pass down the seam to TE Luke Willson), so you would have to say it certainly worked.  They also did generate a turnover and blocked a field goal.  All in all, you would have to conclude the defense did - for the 2nd week in a row - enough to win a game.  If you are Rod Marinelli, you have to continue to sell the message that the defense is doing well and has to keep digging hard.

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On to some other items about the defense.  I am asked quite a bit about my evaluations of the linebacking situation - especially since Rolando McClain has returned in Week 5 against the Patriots.  That move inserted the veteran linebacker who was so excellent in 2014, and pretty much removed Anthony Hitchens from the lineup.  In the last 3 weeks, Hitchens has seen his snaps per game fall from 54.5 per game to 13.  

Instead, McClain has been playing alongside Sean Lee.  This was the vision so many of us hoped to see with Lee and the Will LB and McClain in the middle running down plays like only he can.  He was so good in 2014 that surely the tandem would only improve the defense.  

So, what is going on?  Lee's production has pretty much stalled completely since Week 3 and McClain just looks like he has aged 5 years in the last 12 months.  That is seldom going to be seen as a compliment.

Let's show you what I am talking about - First, look at 2 of my favorite plays in 2014 that McClain made.  Notice the ferocity and the determination to destroy a play:

Just look at those.  Beautiful work from a vicious tackler who will not let you mess with his territory.  

Now, compare those 2 great plays from 2014 with these 2 odd and bothersome moments from Sunday.

He looks slow, unsure, and perhaps uninterested.  He is clearly spying Wilson on the 2nd play and gets faked out.  But, then, upon his recovery, he looks like a player who has no catchup speed whatsoever.  The top play where he is headed to the sideline to blow up a quick WR screen, he appears to be a bystander who has teammates passing him on their way to the play on both sides of him.

These two plays suggest one of those situations where you almost hope he is hurt - at least that would explain a player who needs to be replaced with Hitchens as soon as possible if this is what we are going to see.  

Data - Week 8 - Seattle 

If you look at the numbers against the Seahawks, you will see that for the most part the defense did a pretty solid job with almost no big plays and the yards per play was very low.  Unfortunately, in a game where Russell Okung could not play, the Cowboys could not generate a single sack against an offensive line that has given up 31 already this season.

That is certainly a bit disappointing, but I think the Seahawks made it an initiative to make sure they did not ask the pass protection crew to have to stand their ground very much.  They were getting the ball out quite quickly and not challenging the Cowboys pass rush head on very often.

SPLASH PLAYS - SEATTLE

Another week of splash plays, another week of splash plays with Greg Hardy and Byron Jones all over it.

Hardy continues to run down every play on film.  I imagine, when Marinelli is calculating his "loaf" plays (55), he is not seeing 76 much.  

But, he did put this splash play on the board.  Actually got 2 splashes for this.  

Here is the new season-total splash board - Good news and Bad News when you look at this.  Good news is that Sean Lee has been good (awful quiet recently) and Hardy and Jones have been fantastic since the bye week.  The bad news is that we are not seeing the production of 2014 from many of those players returning.  Instead of Hardy, Lee, and Jones enhancing the production, it almost seems they have merely replaced it.  DeMarcus Lawrence is close to many plays, but the production of Tyrone Crawford and Jeremy Mincey is down and somewhat bothersome.

Here is the Russell Wilson throw chart:

You can see how he uses a big part of the field between seam passes to tight ends, his trademark comeback routes to the sideline, and of course, the frequent passes to the flanks.

Now, here is the Cowboys pass rush plan against Wilson.  Again, no blitzing and keep him in the pocket.  Very predictable and you would have to say, effective.  

And now, below, here is the season to date pass rush tendencies:

And expressed another way, here are the blitz totals week-to-week:

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

I continue to feel some optimism for the 2015 Cowboys because I am seeing a defensive performance that passes most of the tests.  Yes, they are going to need some 3-takeaway games and a few 4-sack games wouldn't hurt, either.  But, overall, on a play to play basis, there isn't many things to complain about.  

You would like to see your defense make plays and even score points, but the fundamental charge of any defense is to resist succumbing to the attacks of the opposition.  From just about every angle, the defense has hung in there on most challenges - the 2nd half vs Atlanta and the 2nd half vs New England were not good enough - and overall they did their parts well.

Greg Hardy has raised the intimidation and respect from opponents as you can see how their game plans are now altered to work around him.  We are also seeing Byron Jones forcing his way onto the field and the Cowboys are even trying to get better safety play as they actually played Jeff Heath more snaps than JJ Wilcox (who appeared completely fit as he was on special teams all day).  

Now, they get another chance to deal with DeMarco Murray and the Eagles offense that they so dominated back in Week 2 without Hardy.  Clearly, without reasonable QB play, the onus falls to the defense to carry the load.  

The season may hinge on whether they can do it themselves.