Always the horses, seldom the jockey...
Daily Commentary on the Dallas Sports Scene - By Bob Sturm - Sportsradio 1310, The Ticket - The Athletic Dallas - The Athletic - Bob Sturm
Hopefully, everyone has had a few minutes to reflect on the impact and career of the longtime coach and currently retired Jerry Glanville. Aside from coaching (and hating) a young Brett Favre, he was known for several things that made a real impact on those of us who watched that included leaving tickets for Elvis Presley at many games and dressing in all black. He was a wild ride as both head coach of the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Oilers, but also gained notoriety for explaining on NFL Films to a referee who had frustrated him that NFL stood for “Not For Long” if the ref continued with calls like that.
We had a number of conversations back in January about the renovations for the Cowboys defense. From the moment that Orlando Brown yelled “easy money” into the Fox television cameras in Baltimore after another demoralizing touchdown, we knew that the defense was an embarrassment and that Mike Nolan’s days were over.
Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) gets past Dallas Cowboys linebacker Jaylon Smith (54) during the second half of an NFL football game at AT&T Stadium on Sunday, Oct. 8, 2017, in Arlington. The Packers won the game 35-31.
I think you can accept the Aaron Rodgers realities. Most of the NFL has tried at times to slow him down and - often with minimal assistance - Rodgers does what he does against many a foe.
But, Aaron Jones?
I would suggest just about any reader of this piece right now had not heard of Aaron Jones before Sunday. Heck, I would suggest that just about any Green Bay Packers fan was pretty unfamiliar with the rookie from UTEP who was making his first career start on Sunday after being taken in the fifth round last May.
Now, he may be starting a great career with his monster performance on Sunday that included 19 carries for 125 yards (6.6 per carry), a vital 9-yard reception to move the chains, a touchdown and one of the biggest plays in the biggest drive of the game with his 15-yard run that got out of bounds with 45 seconds to play in the game.
Aaron Jones is not Todd Gurley. But one could make a significant case that he hurt the Cowboys as badly as Gurley did the week before by attacking the one part of this defense that appears to be ripe for attacking right now - the linebackers.
Ironic, of course, when you consider all of the consternation regarding the Cowboys defense over the offseason was focused on the ability to get sacks and the ability to cover wide receivers down the field. Both of those categories have worked out pretty well, to be honest. The sack totals are higher than they have been in years and the biggest wide receiver day against the Cowboys so far has been Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona. Otherwise, nobody has had a 75-yard day at receiver against Dallas. But, it is abundantly clear in the losses to Denver, Los Angeles and now Green Bay that the common theme is these offenses are attacking the linebackers repeatedly and without mercy.
If Gurley is going to get you, fine. C.J. Anderson? I guess. But now the attack is from Aaron. If you thought Aaron Jones and his battered offensive line could outproduce Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys line of first-rounders, then you should predict things for a living.
Sean Lee is the talisman of this defense. He has been for sometime. Unfortunately, he is getting older and his body's durability has always been his enemy. But the results with and without Sean Lee over the last three years is staggering. Here are the Cowboys run defense numbers with Sean and without him (in the four games he missed due to injury):
Eighty-nine yards is among the best in the league; 139 is going to be near the bottom. The difference is staggering. Without him, you are looking at Jaylon Smith, Kyle Wilber, Justin Durant, Damien Wilson and Anthony Hitchens. There may not be more than one NFL starter in that group right now. And some guy named Aaron Jones repeatedly shredded their efforts on Sunday.
This was early in the game. I believe Wilber has contain. Or, actually, nobody clearly has contain.
Green Bay said, "Nobody has contain left, so run over there again." They did. And Byron Jones did not have a great day, either.
In the red zone, it was as if there were no linebackers at all.
All day long this went on. Repeatedly. Right at Jaylon Smith most of the day. It was as if they watched what the Rams did and dared to try it without Gurley (or Ty Montgomery).
Look at the entire front cave-in on a zone play, setting Jones up for a cutback that has nothing but daylight.
Fourth-down pitch to the sideline in a footrace with Jaylon:
Or, run right at him.
But, then late in the game, with Jaylon on the bench, the Deacon package is pretty small and there are running opportunities against an undersized front if you have time. Green Bay had the time. This run was huge.
As you can see, Jones needs some credit. But I think the common denominator is the Cowboys linebackers getting carved up pretty badly. It is an unlikely weak spot on the defense, but I have no choice but to point the finger there - because consecutive Cowboys opponents did so when they came in here. Everyone is talking Aaron Rodgers, but, you held him to 221 yards. The other Aaron was the guy who seemed to be holding the bloody weapon most of the day.
WEEKLY DATA BOX
OK, hold Green Bay to less than 25 minutes, three conversions on third down, just three explosives, and sack Rodgers four times? I think that would be pretty nice work, right?
But, we also have to consider 4 of 5 in the red zone, no takeaways, and, of course, that final drive.
AARON RODGERS THROW CHART
Does that look like the throw chart of a QB who destroyed you? I don't think so, either. Hardly any passes to the middle of the field. A number of back-shoulder fades to the left, a long pass to Martellus Bennett, another to Lance Kendricks and just slipping some shorter passes for results after the catch. It doesn't feel that way, but the secondary held up pretty well against Rodgers.
BLITZ REPORT
Keep in mind that 20 percent is usually the league low for blitz rates. So it is clear that the Cowboys have no interest in risking big plays behind blitzes. They want to defend conservatively and they continue to do so. No big plays. Make the opposition put long drives together. Most times, that will work out pretty well.
Again, only three big plays - all to guys you wouldn't expect to get explosives. No Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams or Randall Cobb on this list.
SPLASH PLAYS - WEEK 5
We will call this section "Welcome back David Irving." He was disruptive and excellent. Very excited about his next few months next to DeMarcus Lawrence.
SPLASH PLAYS THROUGH WEEK 5
It would be nice if someone else was close to him, but I assume Lee and Irving will be in second and third place pretty quickly.
That continues to keep Lawrence on his record pace. We have not seen a start to a season like this since I have kept this stat.
OK, let's look at a few more plays here. Cowboys are on pace for their best sack season since they led the league in sacks in 2008 with 59. Since then, they have never had more than 42 and their highest mark in the last five years has been 36.
But, look, sacks are coming! Lots of them. They have 16 so far. That puts them on a 51-sack pace which would also put them with the league leaders. Here are the sacks from Sunday where they produced solid pressure on Rodgers for big parts of the game.
I got excited when I saw that Tyrone Crawford got a sack, but then I noticed it was just a poor screen play by the Packers where nobody blocked him on purpose. Still counts...
Here is David Irving jumping the snap and the Packers bust their protection. Watch the center No. 63 Linsley and the guard No. 73 Evans start yelling at each other on this play. I thought you had him.
This is textbook work of keeping Rodgers in the pocket and continuing to fly around trying to close down the play. This was also the Mayowa personal foul on the Lawrence sack. Mayowa has to be smarter, but the call was also pretty ridiculous.
And this sack is Lawrence winning against Bulaga and forcing Rodgers to step up. Meanwhile, Irving is running over No. 64 McCray at left guard and taking the sack. Lawrence deserves credit here, but Irving is making an immediate impact at DT.
And now two Green Bay plays that did not go well for this defense:
I assume Byron Jones has a television and knows that there is no red-zone combination over the years more lethal than Rodgers to Jordy Nelson. Despite that knowledge, he falls for the play-action fake (perhaps because he knows how bad the linebackers have been), but that is not doing your job. He gave this TD away way too easily for a safety. Bad job on a rough day for 31.
And now, the play that we talked about all week. From Monday's column:
...after an incompletion and a short run, Green Bay faced a third-and-8 at the 30-yard line. This is the play that will stick in your memories for a bit.
The Cowboys are going to roll out the "Deacon" package, where they are in 2-deep, man under with three rushers and a linebacker playing quarterback spy. The two linebackers who are on the field are Anthony Hitchens and Justin Durant. One of them is to pick up Jones and the other is to keep Rodgers from breaking contain. The three pass rushers are the best the Cowboys have -- DeMarcus Lawrence, David Irving and Benson Mayowa from left to right.
The Packers will double-team Lawrence -- which requires the right tackle and right guard -- leaving Irving in a one-on-one with center Corey Linsley and Mayowa against Lane Taylor (who is their left guard playing left tackle for just the second time in his career). The left guard is responsible for a blitzing linebacker who appears to be Hitchens, but when Jones slides out of the pocket into a route, Hitchens goes with him. The problem with that is Durant is doing the same thing. The Cowboys have two linebackers who play both positions regularly, and on this occasion it appears both seem to be thinking they have the same responsibility. Both are on the running back, and neither is spying the guy with the ball and reputation -- Rodgers.
As the play develops, Mayowa is beating Taylor, and as Rodgers steps up in the pocket, Mayowa gets both hands on the quarterback at the 38-yard line. But Rodgers is able to power through that and head to the left sideline. Irving, who has tremendous mobility for a man his size, is now on top of Rodgers' path and dives from close proximity to get his legs at the 33-yard line. Somehow, Rodgers eludes him, too. Since there are no linebackers nearby and the secondary is in man coverage, he has a lot of space down the sideline and finally stops the clock and play at the 12-yard line with 21 seconds to play. It is a fresh set of downs, and that might have been the last chance to stop him, as the ending from here felt a bit inevitable.
Wisconsin linebacker T.J. Watt runs a drill at the NFL football scouting combine, Sunday, March 5, 2017, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
NFL DRAFT DIGEST - WEEK 6
We will get to five talented defensive dudes below....
By now, hopefully you are up to speed on the weekly draft project to make sure we are familiar with all of the talented players who will be taken in the top two rounds in April's draft. It would be better if we had a little more time, because I already feel like getting to everyone is going to be a long shot, but here are prospects 26-30 (in terms of my random examination - not their quality by any stretch), so I imagine we will only be able to get to 50-60 names in all since today is St. Patrick's Day and I average five players a week.
We are only 41 days from the draft - so if we hurry, I can maybe get 30 more names under the bell. It all ticks by very fast.
As you also hopefully know, I am really stressing defense this year. I fully realize that the Cowboys were looking WR/TE in the first few rounds when I started this project - which was sort of solved by keeping Terrance Williams for about 12 hours before Doug Free retired. Now, if you told me they would grab a right tackle at #28 or #60, that might seem plausible, too.
That said, with three starters from the secondary gone, Jaylon Smith still a question, and the team obsessing over finding a war-daddy, I have decided to go 40-deep on defensive prospects and risk only getting 10-20 on offense. Sometimes, you have to make tough choices.
And now, on to this group - Week 6: Alabama's Reuben Foster, Wisconsin's TJ Watt, Vanderbilt's Zack Cunningham, Youngstown State's Derek Rivers, and Florida's Jarrad Davis:
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Reuben Foster - LB, Alabama
6'1 - 228
Stats last two years: 30 games | 188 tackles | 21 tackles for loss | 7 sacks | 11 passes broken up
Foster is another from the Alabama defensive machine that is widely talked about as a top-10 pick and a sideline-to-sideline monster who can anchor any defense.
POSITIVES: This All-American plays the inside linebacker position with the ability to run like a safety but bang into bodies like a linebacker. He mirrors running backs with great ease when he lines up against the run and pass and has hips to handle the turn and go. He closes on the ball with ferocity and looks the part of all of those first-round Alabama LBs before him who played the similar spot - Hightower, Mosely, Rolando McClain. He covers plenty of ground and comes through on both the A-gap blitzes but more impressively, can put his hand in the dirt and display some uncommon edge-rushing ability for these run-and-hit LBs, similar to Jaylon Smith last year. He stands tall and handles shedding guards and centers quite well.
CONCERNS: The biggest concern here - aside from the occasional off-field scrape - is that he plays on such a talented defense that he is not asked to perform some of the tasks of his fellow prospects. For instance, Foster almost always runs clean. This means he is allowed to mirror the RB with almost no contact. His defensive line is so good that we don't know much about his work in traffic or too many examples of shedding. He is always clean, which allows him to look his best. That will not go with him to the NFL. He also doesn't finish plays quite as much as you would expect as he goes in for the kill but will allow some to break through his effort and require help from mates to finish the play.
Foster is really, really good. I am not sure I like him as much as the consensus appears to be, but there is no question he belongs in the Top 25 prospects.
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Jarrad Davis - LB, Florida
6'2 - 238
Stats last two years: 23 games | 158 tackles | 17 tackles for loss | 5.5 sacks | 8 PBU
Davis is another high-quality inside linebacker who has intangibles that suggest he is a fine candidate to run your defense in addition to the athleticism and ability to lead it.
POSITIVES: There are times when you look at Davis and wonder if this is Ray Lewis. He is a tackling machine who is eager at the snap to spring into action and looking to physically battle guards and jack up the guy in front of him. He brings a real load when he hits and those around him rave about his communication skills and knowledge of what he's seeing. He can blitz through the A-gaps with intent and get where he needs to go. He will physically challenge offensive linemen who are much bigger than him. He definitely is the definition of a brute-force linebacker.
CONCERNS: He has had some health issues that cause us to wonder if this is a position to spend too much on. I have always considered this the defensive version of RB in that the career span and the job description demonstrates how difficult it is to play this position in this style and have a long career. The way he plays and his health history suggest that he might be an injury concern. Also, compared to Reuben Foster, Zack Cunningham and Haason Reddick, Davis looks a bit more stiff and tight and therefore we wonder about his ability to man-cover a RB in the flat. This is more and more becoming a key part of the job at times, and even though he can go sideline to sideline, when it requires turn-and-go, he can be left in the dust.
Davis is an absolute dude. I like him a lot. Just not quite as much as a few others in the inside LB group.
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Zack Cunningham: LB, Vanderbilt
6'3 | 234 | 4.67 40 | 34 3/4 arms
Stats, last two years: 25 games | 228 tackles | 33 tackles for loss | 4.5 sacks | 6 forced fumbles - 6 PBU
Cunningham is a Butkus Award finalist and All0American who is a fantastic prospect and a player who excelled despite being on a team without a ton of additional talent.
POSITIVES: Cunningham appears to be the type of player who is perfect for the further evolution of football where you watch a guy and you aren't sure which position he fits best, but you realize he will fit great at any of them. He is a sideline-to-sideline guy, if you wish. He is an outside LB who has the arms and talent to play edge for you. And, you know, Vanderbilt would send him out to the slot to defend receivers and tight ends like a safety. Is he Kam Chancellor? Is he Erik Kendricks? He is very quick, very athletic and finds the ball-carrier before stopping the play with authority. His 4th-and-1 stop to win the Georgia game was his calling card, but he makes plays all game long.
CONCERNS: The only legitimate concern here for me is that you are projecting a bit more and not seeing him surrounded by those who allow for more opportunities for splash plays. He also tackles high, which allows bowling-ball RBs to slip through at times. You would love just a little more bang in his hits, but beyond that, he is really impressive. His range will jump off the screen.
Cunningham is going to be a seek-and-destroy force on defense for a long, long time. He may end up being the best player from this group at the next level.
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These next 2 are back to "edge rushers" and guys who could be those high-sack producers we have visited about for weeks...
Derek Rivers: LB, Youngstown State
6'4 | 248 | 4.61 40 | 32 3/4 arms
Stats, last two years: 27 games | 110 tackles | 35 tackles for loss | 22 sacks
Rivers is the rare small-school prospect who is getting all sorts of positive reviews after showing well at the Senior Bowl and Combine as an elite athlete.
POSITIVES: Rivers is a really athletic edge who has the short-space quickness that dazzles on the screen. He also has production that borders on insane when you consider he had over 90 plays behind the line of scrimmage while in college. He gets low and his pursuit is absurd. His opponents have no choice but to hold him at times. He is off-the-charts twitchy. He has some people seeing DeMarcus Ware with his athletic traits and his small-school beginnings. He has the ability to look the part very well when he gets the game going in his direction. He brings electricity and suddenness to the edge which usually translate well if the traits are special enough. And they appear to be.
CONCERNS: The concern about Rivers is two-fold. Neither of these are deal-breakers at all, but they must be considered. 1) He is going up against very poor offensive linemen. He generally is lining up against the right tackle of these opponents and if Big 12 schools don't have two good tackles, you can imagine Northern Iowa doesn't, either. 2) He has very few moves most of the time. He has superior athleticism and that works at his level with a nice motor. The question is how well he can be taught moves that will be required where the tackles are very strong on Sundays. He is very interesting and may have a higher ceiling than most. That said, he may also have a lower floor than top-50 edge guys, so there is a gamble in trusting this tape.
Rivers has great quality and when forced to choose, he might be your guy. But he comes with a slight reservation - which is common with players from his level.
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TJ Watt: LB, Wisconsin
6'4 | 252 | 4.69 40 | 33 1/8 arms
Stats, last two years: 27 games | 71 tackles | 17 tackles for loss | 11.5 sacks | 28.5 explosives
Watt has been forever known as JJ's little brother, but he earned his own identity in the last year as a legitimate candidate for Round 1.
POSITIVES: You want an edge player who explodes over the line at the snap and attacks. This destroys run and pass plays alike and puts the offense into a defensive posture themselves. Watt does that so well with his ability to set the edge and close down plays. He can trouble left tackles with a pass-move array that uses power and quickness very well. He can destroy plays and he can also use his arms to just push a tackle back into the QB. He tested as an elite athlete and one of the best in this group. He is far from developed but the progress shown since September is just silly. He certainly is of interest by many teams at the moment.
CONCERNS: The biggest issue is that he was a TE/fullback just 18 months ago. That means he has so much to learn and there is not a massive sample size of his abilities. Despite that, you would not call his moves raw. You are trying to figure out what scheme he fits best in, but I believe I am comfortable with him in the Dallas scheme as an explosive edge element. His size might make you think more about a 3-4 OLB, as he was in college for the most part. There is also concern of adding too much value for his last name, but his brother had nothing to do with his tape or his combine performance - aside from DNA.
Watt looks the part and although he was not on the radar when this project began last summer, he is now comfortably in Round 1 discussions.
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Next week, we get back to the defensive backs as the Cowboys are trying to replace about 2,700 snaps in their secondary. It is a good draft for it, so plenty of work to do.
