Always the horses, seldom the jockey...
Daily Commentary on the Dallas Sports Scene - By Bob Sturm - Sportsradio 1310, The Ticket - The Athletic Dallas - The Athletic - Bob Sturm
Let’s have a few philosophical discussions today about this impressive group of safeties. First, let me direct you to a very safety-adjacent story from Monday about the success story of Jayron Kearse. He has been quite a find, but it is worth noting that given how he plays, might not actually be one of two safeties in the defense. Don’t get it twisted, he will be used a lot. But, perhaps in addition to Malik Hooker and Donovan Wilson (or one of the names below) in a three-safety setup. Or, maybe you want to call it a two safety, one hybrid LB setup. Who knows, anymore?
Given that we have no idea how to handle the NFL with a shrinking and temporary salary cap, we are left to wildly speculate what lies ahead in the NFL silly season. Perfect.
Texas A&M quarterback Trevor Knight (8) is sacked by LSU safety Jamal Adams (33) during the first quarter of an NCAA football game at Kyle Field on Thursday, Nov. 24, 2016, in College Station, Texas (Smiley N. Pool/The Dallas Morning News)
This week we introduce defensive prospects 31-35 in our effort to familiarize you with the finest in draftable talent for the NFL draft that now sits 34 days away. These are players who join the groups we have already featured who are thought of as Top 50-75 prospects by many of our resources. And then I give them the 200-snap treatment to examine them closely and see how they compare with the others in the group.
If you are just joining us, please know that I am trying to get to as many as we can (at my 1 prospect a day pace), but I am definitely going to err on the side of defense, because I expect the Cowboys are leaning heavily in that direction for at least their first two picks. If I am wrong -- which will happen from time to time -- at least I will have a good handle on this impressive crop of defenders who are joining the league. I really don't remember this many real strong prospects on the defensive side of the ball who all seem to fit on Day 1 or 2 of this draft.
So, today, we take our first expanded look at safeties. I already did Jabrill Peppers a few weeks ago, but here are five more names that you will want to know who seem to be exceptional safeties.
A couple thoughts about safeties that I believe are very important: One of the great characteristics about our game is the constant evolution. Unfortunately, it evolves at different paces with everyone involved in the game. This simply means that there are coaches on the cutting edge -- dreaming about how to solve old problems with new solutions. But, most likely, the majority of coaches remain in the mold of solving old problems with old solutions. Coaches, like humans, get set in their ways and can't see the new thing. But, there are those who seem to believe that they must innovate, because offenses are throwing things at them that have never been done in the NFL until recently.
That is why coaches now at the NFL level look to colleges and even high schools to deal with dual-threat QBs with zone reads with pass options. This wasn't a thing before. Heck, 25 years ago, 3 wide receivers was rare. Now, 5 wide outs with empty backfields is just another package that is routinely seen. Sometimes they are all "littles" or maybe they will throw 2 big tight ends with 3 wide outs.
But, one of the bigger things we are seeing is teams trying to put mismatches out there that were not seen in 1992. Put 4 wide receivers on the field to spread a defense out and forcing them into "dime" defense, but then keeping in a RB like Ezekiel Elliott or Devonta Freeman and forcing the 5 defensive players left who would be considered "big" to stop the run out of that formation. Bring in a 6th or 7th run defender and then they pass. You are never right as a defensive coach.
So, what are we seeing more and more of? Where is the innovation taking us? Well, I believe we are getting closer and closer to converting one and sometimes two linebackers into safeties. And then, I believe we are getting closer and closer to safeties and corners being the exact same guys. In other words, what is the opposite of innovation? Drafting a 235 pound safety, like the Cowboys did when Roy Williams was taken so high in the draft. He was a safety that resembled a linebacker which is the opposite direction of where football was headed during his career. Tight hips, poor change of direction, and instead of the 2 LBs who are now the norm, the Cowboys were putting 4 linebackers on the field (and then, ultimately 5 linebackers when the Cowboys switched to a 3-4 in 2005. They were basically running a 3-5-3).
Now, what do we see? Well, we already know that most teams are in nickel 60-70 percent of the time on defense. That has already happened, so the idea that people are looking for 2 corners and 2 safeties to start is not true. They are looking for 3 starting corners in most cases. But, even that is problematic against the teams who are just spreading you out to then run. So, we see the 4-2-5 defense which is more and more becoming a thing. TCU gets tons of credit for perfecting this at the college level for their way of answering the spread. But, it isn't always 3 corners. It is 3 safeties. Strong safety, free safety, and weak safety.
For purposes of this conversation, just consider the strong safety and the weak safety to be very similar players. Teams can do it differently, especially if they want to use a 2-deep safety look, but I prefer the Cover 3 look out of it, where you have the free safety and 2 corners playing high, and that leaves 4 defenders underneath. Your 2 linebackers (who might range between 230-250 still present who can run but also take on guards in the middle) and your 2 safeties who are both playing near the line of scrimmage and can be the Swiss Army Knives of your entire operation. They are guys who might weigh 200-220, can run like the guys they are trying to deal with, but they have a linebacker's mentality. They are not fragile flowers like some corners. These guys can only survive in the box by being animals, regardless of their size.
Are we getting to a point where football is shrinking? The linemen are now leaner than they have been. We stopped trying to see how big guys can get. The bigger they get, the less agility they have. So, tight ends are made into tackles. But, defensive ends are now smaller than ever before. We will consider 250 if he has the flexibility and explosiveness. So, 250 pound defensive ends means linebackers are 225 to 230, and now, yes, these box safeties, if they match the profile, sometimes weigh almost nothing more than 205. Let's look at some safety sizes of guys who have gone through this process: Troy Polamalu 5'10 - 207, Earl Thomas 5'10 - 202, Bob Sanders 5'8 - 206, Eric Weddle 5'11 - 195, Brian Dawkins 6'0 - 210. Now, many of these were centerfield types (which frankly, are more and more becoming cornerbacks), but none of these guys are corners. These are linebackers in a smaller body. Mean, tough, and strong players.
Where am I going with all of this? I believe we need to understand that we can't call all of these guys safeties as fans and just throw a blanket over wildly different responsibilities. It is too broad. It is too vague. You can ask a corner to play free safety, but you would never ask a guy who avoids contact to play in the box and basically replace the old school linebacker. You would get steam-rolled.
So, when we debate these guys, let's use these definitions:
Free safety/center field safety: Must have great hips, great recognition, great ball skills, great speed, and it would sure help if he likes to hit people (although they are trying to take this out of the game more and more).
Strong safety and weak safety: You will want hybrid guys here who can both play at that linebacker depth, turn and run in coverage or drop into zones (you will want guys who can do both ideally), but also can shed and tackle and blitz and cause havoc because they are quicker and faster than the old linebackers. You will not take advantage of them because you run a RB on a wheel route. They may have issues with the hybrid tight end due to size, but that seems to be the new tradeoff for these guys who are sometimes in the slot and other times off the shoulder of the defensive end. These guys have great athleticism and speed, but more than anything -- including their size -- I need guys with a violent mentality. They are not afraid of anything and can't wait to dish out physicality and take it.
And, ultimately, I might need 3 starting safeties in today's game. 3 corners works OK on 3rd down, but on those early downs, I think the new developments are going to follow TCU and the college game. Nickel means 2 corners and 3 safeties and dime means 3 corners and 3 safeties.
Linebackers are being minimized and this is becoming a better world to be a defensive back who isn't afraid of anything. I hope this all makes some sense.
So let's look at this week's group: Jamal Adams of LSU, Malik Hooker of Ohio State, Budda Baker of Washington, Obi Melifonwu of UConn, and Marcus Williams of Utah.
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JAMAL ADAMS
Junior - LSU - 33
6'0 - 214 - 4.56 40
Last 2 years - 24 games - 5 INT, 143 tackles, 12.5 TFL, 10 PBU 2 FF, sack
Adams, the pride of Hebron High School in Carrolton, Texas, is yet another Metroplex product believed to be a sure thing for one of the Top 10 picks in this draft.
POSITIVES: Of all of the safety prospects I have looked at, I think Adams is clearly my favorite. He is absolutely phenomenal in all the aspects of the game you are looking for. He is a guy who can function well at all of those safety spots, including a real impressive game in the physical spots on the field where he hits with a vengeance. He can also play man and turn and go with a guy down the field and he moves so well. He can do anything you want from any of these safety spots and provides versatility to just get a difference maker on the field. He also has size that does not give you any pause about his ability to dish out punishment and to take it. He has a toughness about him that is great and comes down hill to dish out some big plays, too. He is decent in the open field for sure and sometimes plays safety safe. Which is not always a given with certain prospects. He is widely recognized as a very smart player who can be trusted to coordinate on the field.
CONCERNS: There are not many. He whiffed on a big hit on a WR screen that gave me pause, but for the most part in the three games I studied, I did not see anything that would be considered problematic. There are some slight changes in direction that you wonder about against the quickest of attackers, but he is an elite player.
He is a real special prospect and I would give some thought to taking him at #2.
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BUDDA BAKER
Junior - Washington - #32
5'10 - 192 - 4.45 40
Last 2 Years Stats - 26 games - 4 interceptions, 11.5 TFL, 120 tackles, 3 sacks 13 PBU, FF
This All-American is incredibly small, but makes enough plays to get your attention.
POSITIVES: The positives of Budda Baker are easy to see if you watched Washington play at all this past season. He is all over the field and plays aggressively and with the mentality I always seek. He has a non-stop motor and is also a very smart player who seems to figure out where the QB is looking at top speed. He is a tremendous athlete who can run like you wouldn't believe and his hips are everything you want in a corner. In fact, he might actually be a cornerback, to be honest. He does everything in that realm just fine and while he never played center field or deep safety hardly at all, Washington used him like Peppers in Michigan as almost a straight linebacker who could slide out and grab the slot man without issues. He run blitzes like an all pro. I really, really love this guy's game.
CONCERNS: Well, he weighs about 192. He is 5'10 and 192. I know I just got done claiming that everything is getting smaller in today's game, but he weighs 192 pounds. This is so small that you wonder if he can play a normal work load and be a positive and not a guy who is getting attacked. He is a real hybrid player who will give you everything he has, and they can try to use him like the Honey Badger and there is plenty of value to that, but there does come a limit to where science takes over.
I really want him to succeed, but the question with Baker is where he goes and how committed to figuring out how to use him his new coach is.
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MALIK HOOKER
RS Sophomore - Ohio State - #24
6'1 - 206 - Has Not run
2 Years Stats - 25 games - 7 interceptions, 5.5 TFL, 84 tackles 4 PBU
Hooker is another first-team All American who is the best center field prospect in the group.
POSITIVES: Hooker is a fantastic athlete who has some very impressive ball skills that jump out at you in terms of thinking if there is a ball in his area, he is going to go get it. He also does something everyone likes once he does make a play on the ball -- which is return it for a touchdown in a way that has many comparing him to Ed Reed. He has played almost all as a free or 2-deep safety, but he will get a bit of a physical edge when the situation calls for it. In fact, there are times where he appears downright chippy with wide receivers and looks to get his shots in. He really looks 100 percent like a corner who is playing safety and that can be a real negative at times, but Hooker clearly makes it a positive in his skill set.
CONCERNS: With Hooker, there are some things to consider. One, his body of work at Ohio State is very limited in that he really has one year as a starter before he bounced. That year was obviously quite impressive, but it was just the one look at the Big 10. He also has been banged up with a torn labrum and a sports hernia, which has prevented big workouts. He certainly has been called more of a projection that the reality like Adams might be. Otherwise, I see he may enjoy ball-hawking over good man coverage techniques which will need to get some attention. Further, I did see him pass on a hit or two on a RB in the open field at Penn State, but he will flirt with coverage penalties for being too physical.
That said, don't get me wrong. He is a real impressive prospect that won't get to pick #20. I just don't quite like him as much as others, it appears.
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OBI MELINFONWU
RS Senior - UCONN - #20
6'4 - 220 - 4.40 40
Last 2 Years Stats: 25 games - 6 interceptions, 206 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 8 PBU
Melifonwu is rising up the charts quickly after dropping jaws at the NFL combine with his absurd workout.
POSITIVES: He ran 4.40, he jumped 44", and he had a 11'9" broad jump as a 6'4 safety. These are all crazy numbers and set him aside as maybe the biggest prospect in his group and the most elite athlete as well. That is some Megatron type stuff, so we should take notice. He plays deep safety for the most part as a deep-half guy. He is extremely tall and lanky and will get in there and make a hit from time to time or break up a pass across the middle. He will find the ball and pick off passes which is a prerequisite for a deep safety in my book. He defends in man coverage at times and can pull it off a decent amount of the time. He gets where he is going in a real hurry.
CONCERNS: I must admit he is a body-type I really struggle with as I am looking to convert athletic cornerbacks into free safeties, so it is tough to see many 6'4" safeties that ultimately have the hips to turn and run like they must. That said, he has absurd athleticism, so perhaps he is an outlier. But, my bigger concern is that he does not seem to have a consistent desire to mix it up and has limited violence to his game. He meets the ball with an amount of disconcerting reluctance at the college level which I fear doesn't always age well at the next level where the meek do not inherit the earth. When he blitzes, it seems he is rather easily picked up.
There is no question he is toolsy, but I would not select him too early as I have mentality concerns about his approach to a position that requires a type for me.
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MARCUS WILLIAMS
Junior - Utah - #20
6'1 - 202 - 4.56 40
Last 2 Years stats: 24 games - 10 interceptions, 3 TFL, 110 tackles - 8 PBU, 2 FF
Williams has generated an elite number of big plays while playing Center Field at a high level in the Pac 12.
POSITIVES: One thing you are looking for when you study a player is a flat-out ball hawk. There is nothing more rare in NFL players than the guy who can consistently go get you the ball and Williams has enough takeaways -- 12 in the last 2 seasons -- to make you think he has a real knack for it. He is always looking for the ball and then knows how to get to that spot and either break up the play or take it the other direction by baiting a QB or taking the best path to the ball. His instincts appear to be on point and he gets sideline to sideline like you might need if you are a Cover 1/3 team. He is also willing to tackle and come down hill on plays.
CONCERNS: The willingness might be there for the physical component of the game, but he really doesn't really arrive with authority. Tackling will not be considered one of his strengths. In fact, depending on who you talk with, the opposite might be true. He also has some limitations in man coverage where he seems to not have the best hips you have ever seen.
Again, at the right price, he might be the free safety you seek, but he is limited in his value without the physical component we seek.
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That concludes Week 7 of this project. More corners next week are coming, I do believe.
Ohio State safety Vonn Bell makes a catch during NFL Pro Day at Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio, Friday, March 11, 2016. (AP Photo/Paul Vernon)
I have never been a scout or a NFL general manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can. To read more about the 2016 NFL Draft Project, click here.
Bell is a very talented and interesting player who demonstrates something we find every year when evaluating the draft. I often use three to four games of a player's most recent season to study with the 200-play treatment, but on occasion, that is not enough. Why? Because the most recent tape on the player reveals some disconcerting trends that indicate the player has changed his style for very logical, but unflattering reasons.
Every year, we find a few players -- and I suggest Vonn Bell from Ohio State is one of them -- who noticeably alter their performance because they realize that going "all-out" could get them injured and jeopardize their draft position. Only he knows if this is true, of course, but the screen often says 1,000 words. This is a very reasonable position to take when we consider all of the draft prospects over the years who did get injured in their final year and never were able to recover the status and fortune they seemed to be in line for. Unfortunately, the opposite happens quite a bit. A player plays with a passive disposition in his final year and puts all sorts of tape out where he looks allergic to contact, and many of us get a wrong impression of his playing skills and his finesse style.
In an effort to protect his draft position, he ends up playing in a way that hurts this very same status. You keep your health, but damage your reputation a bit. That is why in this rare case, I decided to look at 2014 as well. And I found a much better player.
What I liked: Bell is a very impressive center field safety who can read a quarterback and jump routes with the best in this draft. He also has very impressive ball skills, which separate him from someone like Jalen Ramsey. For all of Ramsey's brilliant characteristics, his dropped interceptions are an issue. Well, Bell catches them all. He also can run hip-to-hip when they ask him to follow a player in man coverage, even though his top-end speed is going to cause him to grab on to a speedster. He will tackle in space and he will even take on a running back, but most of his best work in the running game was only found on the 2014 tape. I will spend a bit more time on the 2015 stuff below. He is a very smooth athlete who can really move, and when he makes a decision in the secondary he is generally correct. He is the epitome of a safe safety. If Karl Joseph's aggressive instincts are too much risk for you to handle as a coaching staff, Bell's stay-at-home approach and always-err-on-the-side-of-caution might be more of what you are looking for.
What I did not like: His 2015 season produced some tape that made him look like far less of a player. The Michigan State game, in particular, appears to show a guy who would have far more interest in just about anything besides tackling a running back in the secondary. But, it wasn't just that game -- it was nearly every bit of tape from this season. He played a deep center field and all of the attributes that made him special were dialed way back. It honestly appeared that he was one of those many players far better suited for 7-on-7 summer tournaments without pads on than Sunday football in the most physical league in the world. I have decided to write it all off as either he was injured or trying to save himself for the draft. But, this season was just not very good. He is not really a "box" safety and, while you see him up there a bit, his forte is surely playing back and trying to defend the pass from his spot in center field.
Summary and potential fit with the Cowboys: I am certainly the type of football enthusiast who likes my free safety to have a bit of a physical edge to his game and bring fear into the minds of those running through his area on the field. I also like a safety who is looking to make plays and go get the ball. For several years, the Cowboys have had safety play that seemed incredibly conservative and often average-to-below average from a talent standpoint, as well.
Rumors surfaced at this time in each of the past several years that the Cowboys want to improve their safety situation through the draft, but often they go in another direction when they actually get in the "War Room." They have two safeties now in Barry Church and J.J. Wilcox who both have starting experience and competent play, but the consensus is that more dynamic play-making at either spot would be quite advantageous. Byron Jones looks to be the ultimate center field candidate, but his versatility requires that you consider a player like Bell.
My question for him would be: Was 2015 his best effort? Or once he secures his draft spot and his paycheck, can we expect more of his 2014 performances? Because a player who plays at less than 100 percent (for any reason) makes us wonder if we will always get 100 percent at the top level on a nasty day when things are going poorly and the body isn't feeling great. In other words, what I saw this past season for long stretches was not something I would be fighting hard for in the draft room to take.
But at his best, there is no question that Bell has some very attractive components that can really help a team in Round 2.
