X's and O's Breakdown - The Twist Stunt

According to NFL Statistics, the Dallas Cowboys are right about at the league average when it comes to preventing sacks. This season, the Cowboys have allowed 33 sacks on their QB, with the league average being 35 for the season. As a point of reference, Buffalo and Tennessee lead the league with just 21 sacks against, and St Louis and Arizona are the league worst, allowing their poor QBs to be sacked 52 times each. It has not been fun to be Sam Bradford.

But, there are so many reasons to ignore this statistic as a rule. I hear people all the time trying to suggest the Cowboys are a strong team in pass protection because they don't allow that many sacks. But that doesn't account for many items that cause sacks allowed to be misleading.

Such as, how many sacks is the QB saving with his mobility? How many 3 and 5 step drops are being called by offensive coordinator because he doesn't trust protection? How many RBs and TEs are staying in to help out OL because of fear of the OL's ability to be able to hold the pocket?

None of these considerations are found when we discuss sack totals, but all of them affect the number. If the object of the game is to prevent sacks, it would be easy for a coach to avoid almost all of them. But, the object of the game is to score as many points as possible, and that can usually only be done by risking your QB on occasion. Max protection can often keep your QB clean, but it dramatically reduces the chances for your receivers to cause coverage issues for the defense. Only 2 players in route? Way to easy to bracket with corners and safeties over the top. A truly difficult offense to handle has 4-5 targets out in route on most passing plays. They spread you out, invite a blitz, and then burn you quickly.

Which brings us to our breakdown from the Philadelphia game - a play that on the official game sheet reads like this, "(9:57) (Shotgun) T.Romo pass incomplete short middle to M.Austin [J.Babin]. Pass incomplete on crossing pattern; Hughes closest defender at the Philadelphia 45."

That's right. What could have been the most pivotal play of the season for the Dallas Cowboys has almost no statistical bearing whatsoever.

It reminds you of this play from 2010: "(12:20) T.Romo pass short left to M.Austin to NYG 29 for 14 yards (T.Thomas) [M.Boley]. DAL-T.Romo was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Pass complete on comeback curl.

That, of course, was the play where Tony Romo was lost for the year due to Chris Gronkowski not reading and picking up a blitz from Michael Boley. Romo's collarbone was broken, and 2010 was completely gone down the tubes.

This demonstrates 2 important truths. 1) Sacks only cover a fraction of pass protection and 2) The Season can be rocked from its foundation on any play of the season if you get your QB hit too hard.



Click Here to see full video of this play.

Let's analyze this play from the perspective of the Philadelphia Eagles. First, they realize that Sammy Morris is in charge of blitz pickup on 3rd Downs. This is a far cry from Felix Jones or DeMarco Murray. They have been in Dallas since training camp and getting familiar with all of Dallas' protection concepts since installation. Morris was signed off the street a few weeks ago, and while most running plays are easy for him to comprehend, complex protection situations will be the last to come along.

Next, the Eagles surely have studied how Arizona sacked Tony Romo 5 times. Those sacks came off multiple attacks of Phil Costa and the interior of the Dallas OL. Not necessarily his anchor issues (which are substantial), but rather his awareness and ability to see something in pre-snap, but then adjust at the last second to an ambush blitz. Stunts and blitzes are starting to overwhelm him, and the Eagles are smart enough to see that trend and mimic it.

So, look at the picture at the top of the blog. The Eagles are showing Jason Babin-93 out wide of Tyron Smith at RT again in his "wide 9" technique. The possibilities of them taking a player this wide and stunting him all the way to the opposite "A" gap (between Costa and LG Holland) seems so remote and ridiculous that I highly doubt the Cowboys even considered it a concern.

Then, look at the safety 26-Jarrett start deep and then creep to the outside of Babin. This will be the focus of Sammy Morris on blitz pick up, and will occupy all of his attention. Thus, now the Eagles have a 3 on 3 situation. They will take 50-Matthews (MLB) and 98-Patterson (DT) and send them both away from center. Matthews will attack the RG (Kosier) and Patterson will attack the RT (Smith). This occupies them and leaves Babin to swing all the way around their backs. But, he won't dive inside Costa to his right shoulder, because Costa is already headed that way to get Matthews.

Instead, as the 2nd picture clearly reveals, Babin shows his insane athleticism and heads to the left side of Costa. Costa must hear Kosier or Smith call out this stunt and then slide over to Babin. If it is covered correctly, Costa slides to Babin, Kosier slides to Matthews, and Smith still has Patterson.

That same picture shows Kosier is falling backwards, so if Costa does leave Matthews, then Casey will get to Romo, but it won't be with as much speed or size as Babin. Costa has to leave his guy and get the unblocked sack leader. It is highly possible the blame falls to Smith for not calling out what is going on, but you can understand at the NFL game, audio alerts are certainly not fool-proof in loud stadiums.

And now, below, you see the horrible result. How Romo stays relatively healthy after this hit is truly a smile from the football gods.



And there you see the issues involved with pass protection. You tip your cap to the Eagles for finding a concept that gets a free run on Romo, and you try to make sure it doesn't happen again. Trouble is, a few plays later, with McGee in the game, a similar stunt from Trent Cole runs right by Costa and hits McGee in the mouth, too. Teams are attacking the middle with great regularity now that they see it is a tough spot for the Cowboys to defend.

And today, in a dark room, the Giants are looking at this play and taking careful notes.

Decoding Garrett - Week 15 - Data - Philadelphia

When a team decides to throw its game-plan in a trash can and allow its 3rd string QB and 5th string RB to play the rest of the game against a divisional opponent that appears to be playing hard, well, there is just very little we can draw from it in terms of learning about the Dallas Cowboys offense.

Instead, it allows us once again to reflect on the importance of the Quarterback position in the National Football League. We all know how important it is to have one of the good QBs in the league, but perhaps we again saw it come into focus on Saturday. One twist stunt blitz from the Eagles defense and Tony Romo was knocked out of the game by Jason Babin.

That speaks about 2 things: 1) that teams are attacking the interior of the Cowboys offensive line and we should expect more and more of that until Phil Costa and whoever is playing guard next to him demonstrate an ability to sort through the confusion quick enough to pick up the right guy (and at the very least don't let one of the best pass rushers in the sport hit your QB untouched). And 2) how fragile this whole house of cards is for every team in the league. You might be rolling along nicely in your season and one snap later it is laying in a pile on the turf and your year is in the trash bin.

A team must find a QB it can get production from and then use all of its resources to keep it upright. And the Cowboys flirted with disaster in a giant way against the Eagles and it looks like they may have lived to talk about it. We shall see if Romo can be effective on Sunday night at Met Life Stadium in New York.

Meanwhile, let us reflect for just a moment on what we were forced to breakdown from Saturday. Here is a list of games in the "Romo Era" (2006 to present) where the Cowboys had fewer than 240 total yards in a game and the results. Please pay special attention to the QB who was on the job in each situation:

Date	Opponent	Total Yards	QB
12/24/11	L Phil	238	McGee
11/07/10	L GB	205	Kitna
11/02/08	L NY	183	Johnson
10/26/08	W TB	172	Johnson
12/30/07	L Wash	147	Johnson
12/25/06	L Phil	201	Romo

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As a point of comparison, there were 20 such games between December, 2000 and 2006 (or between Aikman's last game and Romo's first). So, the fact that there have only been 6 games in the last 6 seasons and 5 of them was when Romo was hurt does again speak volumes about the importance of having a QB and then having an offensive line that allows him to do what he does.

I have always had optimism about Stephen McGee as a prospect for the squad. Part of it is founded in being amazed at his toughness and magnetism as a QB in the college ranks and part of it is hoping the Cowboys did not waste another premium draft pick when they took him as the top pick of the 4th Round in the 2009 draft.

But, aside from demonstrating arm strength for the NFL level, it has been hard to see reasons why the Cowboys should stop shopping for an understudy and potential successor to Romo in Dallas. McGee plays a very conservative style of QB with constant check downs and allows the defense to creep closer and closer to the line of scrimmage which makes his check downs even less productive. A theory would be that he has been coached to not show aggression when he is called into a game but rather drive the bus carefully between the curbs and just don't throw interceptions. If that is how he is being coached, then he is doing that well, but that is not helping his stock around the league as a QB prospect of note.

I assume the Cowboys know what they have there, and either they will make him a clear #2 in 2012 or they will cut him loose and begin the process again. Because McGee's contract will come due soon and at that point you will have to have a clear feeling on what you have this many years into his career. It did speak volumes that the Cowboys left camp feeling they still needed Jon Kitna in 2011, despite Kitna having lost his ability to throw the ball down the field and to the sidelines years ago.

Anyway, 238 yards will seldom win anything in the NFL and the Cowboys can thank the injury gods for having mercy on Romo's hand.

Here is the data from Week 15:

First, the Quarterback throw chart. Blue shows completions, red are incompletions, and yellow touchdowns. This week's chart is a bit different, because we have a few Romo throws (black) and everything else will be Stephen McGee throws. Also, I left last week's chart below for anyone that has a hard time appreciating the starting QB around here, they can compare back and forth.

QB vs Philadelphia


QB at Tampa Bay


As you can see, the depth of the throws may not be as different as you might think. It is the accuracy and the quick decision making. McGee still really struggles to pull the trigger when he is in the middle of the play, whereas a veteran QB knows what he wants to do as he is dropping back. Way too many red throws that close the line of scrimmage for McGee against the Eagles.

Data from Week 15 vs Philadelphia

Run-Pass	23-43
1st Down Run-Pass	12-14
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	8.95
2nd Down Run-Pass	9-12
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	8.82
3rd Down Run-Pass	2-15
3rd Down Conversions	6-17, 35%

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This shows you how bad the Cowboys offense can do when it gets behind schedule. Not since Week 7 at Philadelphia have the Cowboys done such a poor job on 1st Down where they faced 8.95 yards to go on their 21 2nd down situations. Then, they barely improved their spot by 3rd Down where they had to deal with 8.82 in 17 3rd Down situations. This makes you 1-dimensional, predictable, and highly susceptible to blitz situations. A very poor combination.

Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan.

Not much can be learned from Saturday's data here, either. The Cowboys started their 1st 2 drives with runs to Felix Jones, but after that, there is no discernible pattern about their intentions.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass
Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass
Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass
Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 9-Buffalo - 10 Drives - 7 Run/3 Pass
Wk 10-At Washington - 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 11-Miami - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 12-At Arizona - 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 13-New York - 12 Drives - 7 Run/5 Pass
Wk 14-At Tampa - 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Wk 15-Philadelphia - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Total: 169 Drives - 75 Run/94 Pass 44% Run


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.


Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	1	-8	1--8	0-0
12	9	38	6-15	3-23
13	2	8	1-4	1-4
21	6	-1	4-8	2--9
22	9	50	8-37	1-13
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S02	8	32	0-0	8-32
S11	26	108	3-24	23-84
S12	5	11	0-0	5-11
Knee	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	66	238	23-80	43-158

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Some amazingly unproductive results from the "under center" offense in this game. I have to believe the Giants will not even look at this film as the Cowboys had all of the conviction that they would in a game in mid-August.

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	1	-8	1--8	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	1	0	1-0	0-0	0/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S02	4	21	0-0	4-21	1/0
S11	8	63	0-0	8-63	3/0
S12	3	11	0-0	3-11	1/0
Totals	17	87	2--8	15-95	5/0

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SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66
Wk 2 - SF: 32/66
Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62
Wk 4 - Det: 29/75
Wk 5 - NE 31/67
Wk 6 - StL 10/60
Wk 7 - Phi 39/49
Wk 8 - Sea 19/59
Wk 9 - Buf 15/61
Wk 10-Was 24/73
Wk 11-Mia 25/58
Wk 12-Arz 29/67
Wk 13-NYG 28/58
Wk 14-TB 26/67
Wk 15-Phi 39/66

Total - 397/953 41.6%


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Overall a very difficult game to look at, but the Cowboys clearly did not have any regard for the game, so we shouldn't either. It is all or nothing in Game #16.

And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

The Shaky Lines Again Determine Fate Of Cowboys

With Week 17 upon them, the Cowboys are left to nurse their wounds and prepare for the game that will determine their narrative for 2011. After 15 games, some of them of the most excruciating variety, the Dallas Cowboys find themselves at a fork in the road that could take memories of this season in either direction when we look back at it.

It could include a divisional crown - albeit in a rather flimsy division this year - that will also be rewarded with a home playoff game against an opponent that will be beatable and from there who knows? Or, it will be a season in which the Cowboys lose the division by losing 4 of the final 5 games of the season and flunking the test by every metric available in their first full season under head coach Jason Garrett.

And while some will fixate on Tony Romo's role in determining this outcome (and his cumulative record in the month of December) or the obvious ability for the secondary to show they can at least slow down Eli Manning, in this spot, let's consider another alternative determining factor in this game and the season as a whole.

The offensive and defensive lines will once again decide whether the Cowboys have made adequate progress from where they have been to where they want to go.

And while that is not tantalizing enough to stimulate the networks to even discuss it - surely, there is another Romo or Jerry Jones debate we can run into the ground, right? - the fact remains that the Cowboys once won championships because they were the superior team at the line of scrimmage. And here, for years, this organization has not properly built an offensive or defensive line that requires an inordinate amount of concern for their opponents from week to week.

With one game to play, we are left to review the job of the team to assemble these units and we find that once again the organization seems to undervalue the "big uglies".

Why else would they leave camp with the idea that Phil Costa, an undrafted center entering his 2nd year, and Bill Nagy, a 7th round rookie, were capable of starting in the NFL? Nobody would debate the wisdom of turning over the offensive line as last year's crew was far below a passable grade for a line that had so much salary invested, but to replace them with unregarded and untested kids who never "won" a job rather than simply being handed it is certainly befuddling. The responses are always that Marc Colombo and Leonard Davis needed to be replaced. And that is absolutely true. But, only if you have a proper understudy who is ready. And while Colombo has been switched out for a rookie in Tyron Smith who looks the part of a regular for the next decade, he is the only young lineman who has demonstrated the ability to play at even an "average" level of performance.

The rest of the kids; Costa, Nagy, Kevin Kowalski, and David Arkin are not ready to provide anything above replacement level performance. Costa is the regular from the group, and profootballfocus.com has him rated as the 31st best regular center in the NFL. Overall, his performance level has been unacceptable all year, and much of that can be attributed to the Cowboys putting way too much on his young plate before he was ready. Nagy's unfortunate leg injury in New England resulted in the Cowboys signing Montrae Holland - a player they had cut a month earlier - from off the street and he immediately improved the overall play of the offensive line. Kowalski seems to be a reasonable reserve option, but as another un-drafted free agent rookie, needs time in the weight room to grow to evaluate whether he can make a living at this level. And that leaves Arkin, who the Cowboys invested a 4th Round pick in this past April (which makes him easily the most regarded of the 4). The rookie guard has yet to even be active for a game in his 1st year in the league. Given the needs at guard this year, that reality seems to speak rather loudly about his current state of performance.

So, when the OL is being tossed around by New England, Philadelphia, New York, or even Arizona, one must recognize that the Cowboys did much of this to themselves. Did they need a shakeup from the 2010 crew? Yes. Did they need to try to replace 3 of the 5 starters at the same time with nothing available but a batch of rookies who were almost completely unregarded besides Smith? And now, with the season hanging in the balance, they must face the formidable Giants front with Holland now out. This brings on Derrick Dockery, who the Cowboys opted for over Brian Waters back in September, to save the day at Left Guard.

Basically, they took a unit that was substandard in 2010 and did not add a single veteran until the regular season had started at which they signed two older players who were on the street. They cut 4 veterans and replaced them with undrafted free agents. And we wonder why the unit is in shambles in late December?

The defensive line took a group that last year looked to Jay Ratliff to make most of their plays and as a unit also needed an injection of change. They lost Stephen Bowen to Washington and beyond that brought back almost the exact same group. They did change out one spare part in Igor Olshansky for a low investment in the veteran Kenyon Coleman. It is a group of bodies that occasionally make a play, but more than anything they lean hard on Ratliff week after week for any real impact.

And when Eli Manning goes back to pass 50 times in a game, the Cowboys often look to DeMarcus Ware to provide any and all of their sacks. They certainly have the right to ask more of Anthony Spencer, but from the investment in their defensive line, they are receiving roughly what they invested in it. Very little.

That is the point to this all. As the networks will discuss Romo and Garrett, and as the Cowboys offer another long-term contract to a defensive back or wide receiver, the franchise seems to pay too little attention to what most football lifers will tell you is the most important department on a team - the lines.

And now, in the most important game of the year, they will enter a division battle against a beatable team, but one that will be more likely to run the ball and protect their QB. Also, the Giants will be more likely to get sacks and plug holes on defense, too.

Win or lose, for the advancement of the franchise, perhaps we should spend less time on the lazy narratives and focus more on the guys that matter up front. For this team to truly return to the top of the league, they will need to get their lines fixed. And that will take both time and money.

We return you now to the previously scheduled discussion about the QB's record in December.

Time to Start Anew

It was properly pointed out to me yesterday that the Rangers and Mavericks, while both having the most successful years in their franchise's history, look at the upcoming "Opening Days" in their respective sports with entirely different viewpoints.

From a Rangers' viewpoint, they aspire to get 2012 going as soon as possible in an effort to go get what they feel is rightfully theirs. However large the odds are, you can understand the premise of thinking 2010 and 2011 need to be avenged and the only way to do that is to actually WIN the World Series this summer. Pretty high bar, but I already know baseball fans who are chomping at the bit to get after it. That is what finishing 2nd for 2 consecutive years will do to a fan.

But, the Mavericks view seems a bit different. At least from a fan perspective on the radio airwaves, it seems that the new season is not wildly anticipated. You wonder, in the minds of those fans who so badly wanted the NBA title last season, if given a choice Mavericks fans might vote to have the offseason go even longer before having to put that heavyweight title belt back in play.

It is fun being champion, but while the defense of that cherished crown officially begins on Sunday, many can't help but grimace at the thought of the title being somewhat conceded when the Mavericks brass decided to pass on the Tyson Chandler sweepstakes.

I know, I know. Lamar Odom is here. Vince Carter (gulp) is here. Heck, even Delonte West is here (you cannot write this stuff). But, if I am going to trumpet the title being largely due to dynamic attributes that Chandler brought to the table and his undeniable fingerprints on the Larry O'Brien trophy, then I think it would be beyond foolish to then argue that his exit will not be felt at the very core of what made this team special.

And that is why statistics cannot fully be trusted when you try to articulate what he meant to the Mavericks title. 10 points and 9 rebounds? Nice, but hardly irreplaceable. And yet, as the Mavericks enter the new year, I am convinced that the team is trying to find a plug for a irreplaceable hole. He was that important.

Protecting the rim. Attacking the rim. Calling a team meeting. Picking up a teammate. Sticking up for another. Giving everyone in his team's jersey muscles they didn't have when he wasn't around. Maybe the best example of how great he was here was on full display in the NBA Finals. Brendan Haywood left the finals in Game 2 with an injured hip. He did not play in Game 3, 5, or 6, and played just 3 minutes in Game 4. This put the team in an enormous pickle, especially given the number of times that Wade and Lebron attack the rim. No backup center? Chandler had to remain aggressive in his defense of the paint, but he also had to stay out of foul trouble and stay on the floor. That was a very tall order as guys who are trying to avoid foul trouble seldom can maintain their aggressive style. Tyson did it on the biggest stage and did it very, very well. Certainly he did not get the headlines from that series that some of his mates did, but his impact was clear to all around the series.

I don't believe Mark Cuban or Donnie Nelson would debate Chandler's impact to the title. Everyone knows what he meant to the squad, especially them. But, when it came time to marry their 2011 championship roster through 2015 or "keep the powder dry" under the new collective bargaining agreement, they opted for the latter. We will only know if they made the right call in a few years. Actually, maybe we will never truly know, because we can only guess what the 2011 Mavericks would have been able to do in defense of their own crown. Instead, Chandler is in New York. JJ Barea is in Minnesota (also not offered a long-term deal). And DeShawn Stevenson is off to New Jersey.

But, they are banking on having all of the cap space in the world available and thus will be able to go shopping at the finest stores in free agency this summer. One can only hope that the stores aren't all sold out of franchise players when the Mavericks arrive with a full wallet on July 1st. That is the gamble they are willing to take, so it is certainly a reasonable plan to let them prove they were correct to follow their guts. They certainly did not take the easy path at this fork in the road. I can't imagine anyone would have questioned them for bringing Chandler and Barea back. But, not bringing them back sets them up for 2nd guessing for at least 7 months and possibly years and years.

Meanwhile, the franchise embarks on one of the remaining years of Dirk Nowitzki's prime with a team that can be anywhere between pretty good and really good. Anyone who can project what losing Chandler, Stevenson, and Barea and adding Carter, Odom, and West can look like before we see it on Sunday is smarter than I am. I wonder if there is enough defense, rebounding, rim protecting, leadership, and of course, with Carter, are there even enough basketballs to go around?

The team certainly looks versatile and exciting. But, last year when the squad needed a stop, they could put a very impressive defensive 5 on the floor at the same time. Now, they are missing that last, and most vital piece of the mix. The guy who can protect the paint. Haywood will no doubt be sold as a suitable stand-in, and only time will tell. To this juncture of his Mavericks career, one might suggest that those flashes of paint domination have been rare and without regularity.

One of the other notes of interest is how the Mavericks squad that certainly has experience and age in abundant amounts can deal with the very unique circumstances of 2011-12. Usually, a champion must deal with the "short summer" and tired legs because of all of the playoff miles. That is completely taken off the table here with well over 2 months added to the summer vacation due to the lockout.

A 66 game schedule should help an aging team. But, compacting those games in a much tighter window should hurt. 20 back-to-backs will test depth and health, and that is why one should be pleased with how much depth they have assembled.

So, how good will the Mavericks be? Great question. The West is as competitive as ever, but the top end might be a bit lighter than usual. The Lakers and Spurs both appear to be flawed as well. The Clippers have to show their quality on the court, and that leaves upstarts like Memphis and Oklahoma City to prove that they can take that next step. All of these facts may argue that maybe the band should have been kept together, but as they used to say, "there is no point crying over spilled milk".

The Mavericks are ready to bravely defend their title with an all-new group. What makes it particularly odd is that this group may all just be passing through before the new, new group assembles for 2012-13. This is the new NBA, and we should all get used to it. Shorter contracts and less roster continuity seems to be one of the effects of the new CBA.

Whatever. The banner goes up on Sunday. And an irate Wade and LeBron will be watching and preparing to try to make a bold statement with the basketball world watching.

How good will the Mavericks be?

As someone who said "Portland in 6", my predicting rights have been revoked.

We shall all find out together on Sunday.

How I spent my summer vacation

This Year Is Different is a new ebook about the 2011 Dallas Mavericks World Championship from Diversion Books. A free sample of the book is available at their website, and the ebook can be downloaded on any e-reader instantly. The book is currently #1 on Amazon.com for basketball books.

The last year has been a truly memorable 12 months for many of us in the sports world. And for me, it was absolutely highlighted by the NBA title won by the Dallas Mavericks in June. The story itself was more than any one team winning a championship, as there are many teams who have won titles and several who have won many titles. Winning it all is special, but it certainly doesn't make it rare.

What made it rare was the way they won it. Against all odds. Against any logic from the experts. They figured out a way to win the trophy while ignoring any available templates. They really did it their way.

That is why the idea occurred to me on the airplane returning from Miami in June to write a book about the Mavericks championship. I had never written anything close to that length (the book spans roughly 100,000 words) and the idea to write the book may demonstrate my general naivety about how books are supposed to be written. Accomplished authors are no doubt supposed to take on these gigantic projects, not newbies like me. Nevertheless, this idea in my head kept talking to me, and therefore, a few days after the title was won, I started writing.

Before long, I reached out to Mavericks' owner Mark Cuban about his interest in such an idea. I did this partly because I knew he could appreciate the idea of making sure there was some sort of historical record and partly because I had no idea how to get a book published. He has a knack for getting things done, so I thought he was the one unique guy in the world to make it all happen. He told me, "Go for it. And do it fast." Without fully knowing what "fast" meant for a book, I did just that. Popped open my laptop at the kitchen table and attempted to document what I thought was one of the best sports seasons a fan could ever hope to enjoy.

Without knowing for sure how much time it took to write this book, I feel rather confident to say that it required every waking hour from the time the parade ended until early August, I was writing and writing and reading and watching and doing everything to write this record of an amazing year with an outstanding team that we may never see again. I knew that every day we removed ourselves from June 2011, that memories were going to become weaker.

The motivation was simply this - I wanted to try to preserve that feeling of elation on the page as well as humanly possible. To a sports fan, when you are in the moment of a championship that you never thought you would actually enjoy, you go out of your mind with happiness, but you slowly lose perspective. You lose the idea of what is normal and what is rare. You buy your championship t-shirt and you take pictures at the parade, but some setting in your head instantly moves to whether or not you can repeat as champions and what it would take to re-sign this guy (Tyson Chandler) or acquire this free agent (Dwight Howard) or that one (Chris Paul). As rare as the moment was, it then vanishes into thin air and sports continues on whether we are ready or not.

Years later, the details fade from your memory and the specialness of it all sometimes escapes your mind. Maybe Tyson Chandler signs in New York and suddenly your mind attempts to rationalize that losing him won't be so bad. Before long, you have talked yourself into forgetting how important Chandler was to the entire operation. It doesn't matter how true it is. The fact is that as fans we all have a coping mechanism when we lose players that we really loved to watch.

That is why I wanted to take on this massive project. One could make the case that surely someone else, who has written a book before and was embedded with the team all season, would be far more qualified to write this record. But, I wasn't going to wait around and hope that they wrote it. I also wasn't going to hope that they would remember it like i did. I had to do it myself.

So, the process for my project was likely different from others. I talked to everyone that I could think of on the team and around the team as soon as possible. Some of the members of the story literally spent hours with me. Their generosity with their precious free time made it possible to capture in the book the perspective from the inside. Trainers, equipment guys, P.R. staff, coaches, broadcasters, and of course, the players.

Now, the player-interview process was a bit complex because of the NBA lockout that started at midnight on July 1. This meant that any communication with players after that date would not be assisted by the team. Usually, when you wish to visit with a player, a member of the media relations team with the Mavericks will coordinate the conversation according to the insane schedule of the player in question. For instance, I visited with Jason Kidd while he was grocery shopping in Phoenix. He had an hour to talk as he stocked up on food and pushed a shopping cart.

But, by July 1st, I had not been able to get with the main character of the book, Dirk Nowitzki, to find an opening in his schedule. If you recall, his late June schedule was nothing short of fast and furious, as he celebrated on late night television, parades (on 2 continents), and just living his "life achievement" as you hoped he would. Selfishly, I hoped he would work me in before the lockout, but it didn't happen. I then pondered the prospect of writing a book without visiting with the main character. I didn't like that reality, but, I was too far down the road with the book to stop now. I would have to figure something out perhaps without talking to Dirk.

And then, I was hit with a stroke of good fortune as someone close to me found Holger Geschwindner's email address. Holger, of course, is Dirk's personal coach and agent and is headquartered back in Germany. I took a shot, and he advised me that Dirk would be back in town before heading to the ESPY awards around July 10. He even offered me Dirk's email, and before long I was able to spend 90 minutes with Nowitzki that pushed the book from strong to quite strong. He is the reason why this story is so phenomenal. It is a story about a lot of people, but in the end, if there was no Dirk in this story, it would be just another title.

The reason I wanted to write this book was because it proved that sometimes the boyhood sports dream can come true. He showed up as just a boy, and those of us who have followed his career in Dallas know that we saw him grow up over the course of the last 13 years into a grizzled veteran who learned that all of the points and dollars would not take away his burning desire to be a champion. That day in July he told stories of every step along the way that I asked him about. I tried to put every last morsel in the book in some way shape or form. He put himself out there for all to see on the road to victory which took him through prolonged trips in agony and defeat. And now that he stood atop the mountain, if only for a short time, I wanted to make sure that those who want to would always remember that moment in time as he saw it.

I have no idea if I will ever write another book. It seems a lot like running a marathon in the "bucket list" category of life. When you are done, you are proud of what you showed yourself you could do, but you also realize how many hundreds of hours you just spent doing it. I suspect, if I do, that I will need my editor, Ken Daley, right next to me. For it was Ken that helped a blogger look like an actual author. His work was phenomenal and now I see how vital the right guy in that spot can truly be.

Right now, the book is only available in "E-book" form. That means anyone with a Kindle, Nook, IPad, PC, or Mac can read it, but those who desire a physical copy will have to wait a bit longer. But, my dream is that it becomes a keepsake or memento for those who lived one of their happiest sports moments last spring with Dirk and the boys. The links above will even take you to a free sample where you may read the first few chapters at no obligation.

But regardless of which medium you use to read it, if you loved the story, I really hope you will have a chance to read it. This season is here, and it will bring its own excitement and headaches, victories and defeats, but I am willing to bet you will never see another season like the Mavericks year in 2011. A year that was truly different.

Decoding Garrett - Week 14 - Data - Tampa Bay

As a big fan of the English Premiership (Soccer), I am reminded of a certain fan song that comes to mind when the Cowboys get healthy against an opponent of Tampa Bay's caliber. The lyrics go something like this:

"Can we play you? Can we play you? Can we play you every week?"

Clearly, football would be a lot easier if you only played teams that had almost no offense or defense in terms of talent or resolve. And we should give the Cowboys credit for realizing this opportunity and being able to put Tampa out of its misery rather early in the contest. This allowed for time on the sidelines for key figures of the team and a relatively easy night on the injury front.

Philadelphia and New York stand ahead on the road to the playoffs and it would be foolish to expect anything similar from those two rivals, but this was a good opportunity to demonstrate the vast improvement that the Cowboys have enjoyed offensively since the half-way point of the year.

Back on November 10, we spent a fair amount of time focusing on the Cowboys offensive metrics from the 1st half of the season.

Despite some reasonable personal performances, as an offense, the Cowboys had very little team efficiency. That simply means that for all of the yardage they would accumulate, there would not be a proper amount of corresponding points from that hard work.

In that story, we detailed the 3 things that make an offense inefficient: Turnovers, 3rd Down conversions, and Red Zone efficiency (how many Touchdowns are you scoring from your red zone trips).

Well, in the 2nd half of the season, the Cowboys have really picked up the pace in those categories. The giveaways from the offense have been under proper control, as Romo has 4 Interceptions in the last 10 games.

But, let's look at the other two that are seldom talked about, but so very important.

On 3rd Downs, the Cowboys through 8 weeks were well below the NFL average on the "money down". At 35.4%, they were down in the bottom third of the league with some of the least productive and talented offenses in all of football. This is an especially frustrating truth as we believe the Cowboys have elite talent at many of the skill positions and should not be underachieving in this department. With all of the weapons on the field at the same time, you would like to think that Garrett and his troops could convert as they should - well above the league average of 38%.

Now, in weeks 9-14, the Cowboys have dominated the money down. Romo threw all 3 of his touchdowns on 3rd Down on Saturday night in Tampa Bay, and after going 34-96 in the first half of the year, the offense has converted 34-73 in the last 6 games. That percentage sits at 47% and has raised the season mark to #11 in the league and at 40%, is now above the league average.

And now, let's update that all-important "red zone efficiency". Back before the Buffalo game, we marveled at the Bills start, but also cautioned people about falling in love with Buffalo because they were converting almost every red zone chance in to 7 points. This stat can cover a large number of faults if every time you make it inside the opposing 20, you leave with 7 points. However, if that well ever dries up, the team's wins will, too.

The Cowboys had a 4-4 record and many of their problems were linked to many yards but then red zone bog-downs at the most important point of the field. Leaving with a field goal will cost you games.

So, let's look at the improvement: Through 8 games, the Cowboys sat at 38% (10-26) in converting those drives into Touchdowns. Given that the league average is 52%, this was maybe the most disconcerting statistic of them all. The Cowboys ranked 31st in the league - higher than only Tampa Bay. Unacceptable.

But, weeks 9-14 have been great in this regard. The Cowboys have been to the red zone 21 times in the 2nd half of the season and have found the end zone 13 times (59%). That type of conversion rate for the entire season would rank them in the Top 5 of the league. They are finally punching in these plays and once again it comes back to the play of Romo in these tight spots, because only 1 team in all of football has fewer rushing TDs from inside the red zone than the Cowboys. Dallas has 4, and Cleveland has just 3.

I do think it is fair to point out that while we do laud Romo's hot streak and the idea that getting all 3 Top WR options on the field at the same time is stressing secondaries, one thing we are not looking at is how the offensive line has improved. They are still a long way from being a strong OL, but they are much improved. In my personal opinion, the replacement of Bill Nagy with Montrae Holland has been one of the more underrated upgrades of the year. Nagy broke his leg in the New England game, and the overall performance of the offensive line has shot up in almost every category since the veteran castaway was plugged in before Game #6.

Now, let's look at the Tampa Bay numbers.

First, the Tony Romo throw chart. Blue shows completions, red are incompletions, and yellow are his 3 touchdowns. As you can see, here, the Touchdowns were all almost identical in the roll right throws.



Data from Week 14 at Tampa Bay

Run-Pass	35-32
1st Down Run-Pass	18-10
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	6.47
2nd Down Run-Pass	15-6
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.61
3rd Down Run-Pass	2-11
3rd Down Conversions	7-13, 54%

HTML Tables

The numbers that jump out at you are the phenomenal jobs on 1st and 3rd Down. Facing an average of 6.47 on 2nd Down is off the charts. Also, the Run/Pass splits are impressive, but those are quite affected by the score at halftime. They did run plenty, but most of it was in the 2nd half, so don't be deceived by that 18-10 run/pass on 1st Down.

Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan.

The Cowboys were 5 run and 5 pass on their drive starters in Tampa, but started with passes on 4 of the first 5. Again, the score affected the balance for the full game. But make no mistake, Jason Garrett came out with great aggression against Tampa - something we have challenged him to do more on the road games where he is usually quite conservative. This was not careful passing, this was downfield passing with attack as the intent.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass
Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass
Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass
Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 9-Buffalo - 10 Drives - 7 Run/3 Pass
Wk 10-At Washington - 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 11-Miami - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 12-At Arizona - 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 13-New York - 12 Drives - 7 Run/5 Pass
Wk 14-At Tampa - 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Total: 158 Drives - 70 Run/88 Pass 44% Run


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.


Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	1	1	1-1	0-0
12	10	95	7-69	3-26
13	1	2	0-0	1-2
21	10	33	5-18	5-15
22	19	78	17-67	2-11
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	3	14	1-1	2-13
S02	1	7	0-0	1-7
S11	22	169	4-6	18-163
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0
Knee	1	0	1-0	0-0
Totals	67	399	35-162	32-267

Table Tutorial

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	1	0	1-0	0-0	1/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	2	13	0-0	2-13	1/1
S02	1	7	0-0	1-7	0/1
S11	9	58	1-1	8-57	3/1
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	13	78	2-1	11-77	4/3

Table Tutorial

3 Touchdowns on 3rd Down? There are not many games during a season where that will happen. Those 3 plays in particular were a thing of beauty from Romo and the offense.

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66
Wk 2 - SF: 32/66
Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62
Wk 4 - Det: 29/75
Wk 5 - NE 31/67
Wk 6 - StL 10/60
Wk 7 - Phi 39/49
Wk 8 - Sea 19/59
Wk 9 - Buf 15/61
Wk 10-Was 24/73
Wk 11-Mia 25/58
Wk 12-Arz 29/67
Wk 13-NYG 28/58
Wk 14-TB 26/67

Total - 358/887 40.3%


==================

Overall, the offense appears to have found its game again in the last 2 performances. The scoring and yardage are both at levels that tell us they are finally seeming to come together.

As we said, the true tests will be ahead, but from a confidence standpoint, it is easy to practice this week knowing that they are locked in pretty well and capable of being efficient and productive.

These are very good signs from the 2nd half of 2011.

And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

The Morning After: Cowboys 31, Buccaneers 15 (8-6)

"Don't ever let the facts spoil a good story" - Mark Twain

Why Mr. Twain originally offered that quote is up for debate, but the 2011 application of it seems to apply to the 2011 Dallas Cowboys story. Here are learned, wise NFL pundits talking each week about the Dallas Cowboys. And they go on and on discussing the inability of the Cowboys to take a season by the scruff of the neck before each Cowboys' game. They look carefully at all of the information in front of them, cross reference it with all of their personal experience in the game which is often plentiful and extensive, and then flush it right down the toilet.

Because, when one is predisposed to an opinion, there is often no amount of evidence that will turn their opinion short of being smacked in the face. Then, and only then, will they concede that maybe they were barking up the wrong tree.

And they arrive at a familiar destination.

Tony Romo.

Yes, the Cowboys QB is the topic of conversation. Why he can't make the big plays at the big moment. Why he has a December record that is unacceptable. Why he is not in the top class and why his coach doesn't trust him. And then, they start the game, the pregame show guys all put their feet up on the desk and congratulate each-other on a perfect show, and they start to watch a player who they have barbecued play.

All Tony Romo does is go out and play top level football from the QB position. Some weeks it is enough to win, other weeks the Cowboys waste a fabulous performance from their QB because something else on the team broke down. But, despite his performance, the narratives are already written. The dye has been cast. Romo is their target. Facts be damned.

Such was the case on Saturday Night, as before the game and after the game, the NFL Network demonstrated to us that this team is all about its QB. They link postseason failures and blown 4th Quarter leads to Romo. For it was Romo who lost 34-3 to the Vikings in 2009. And it was Romo who lost every single game he ever played that mattered. Because obviously the many he has won don't matter.

Against Tampa Bay, the Cowboys received a 4 Touchdown performance from Romo in the 1st half. You can make a real case that none of his 3 TD passes were a result of the called play. Instead, the improvisational skills of a player who has never been more locked in was on full display. Unlike the games against the Redskins and Dolphins where he made sensational improv plays rolling to his left, this time, the QB who takes as much ridicule as any QB in the game, rolled to his right for TD passes to all 3 of his WRs. It was truly remarkable stuff.

The Cowboys converted 3rd Down after 3rd Down. They went for the knock out early for a Tampa Bay team that has very little in the categories of talent or resolve, and Dallas found it quite easily because of their gigantic edge at the most important position on the field.

But this isn't about 1 game against a bad team in December. This is about a season that is the best of his career. And whether the critics care to acknowledge it or not, his career has numbers that can certainly rival just about anyone he ever plays against.

This isn't to say that Romo is perfect. Obviously, there are real issues with a QB who has never advanced his team in the playoffs past the Round of 8. That will have to change for his reputation to ever truly emerge on the other side. And Donovan McNabb is fine example of a QB who won tons of games, plenty of playoff games, but never emerged as a champion and therefore will never be placed in the group of top QBs in his generation.

But, I seldom remember McNabb being the week-in, week-out target of discussion on every network roundtable about "what is wrong with that team". Do they discuss the issues on the defense? Seldom. Do they look at the under-whelming offensive line? Almost never. Instead, it is back to Romo.

What can he do to change this? If you say that the answer is to just go play well, you should consider the following:

In 2011, coming off an injury that knocked him out of the final 10 games in 2010, Romo is playing at his best level. His QB rating is 102.6, which is significantly higher than ever before. On the other hand, he has never had a rating below 90, so his performance speaks for itself. His career record is now 47-28, so he wins plenty, and for his career, he averages a 10-6 record.

Admittedly, a combination of rust and broken ribs helped Romo get off to a tough start in '11, and that was never more obvious in his meltdown performance in Week 4 against Detroit. 3 deadly interceptions set the football world into a feeding frenzy and it was well deserved. But, it would seem that a game played on October 2 is still the source for just about every talking head in the league. It obviously isn't his play since then.

In the 10 games since Oct 2, the Cowboys are 6-4, but the QB play has been nearly spotless. How good? Well, his 22 Touchdowns and 4 Interceptions trail Aaron Rodgers (28 TDs, 4 INTs) and Drew Brees (27 TDs, 7 INTs). That is it. Given that those are widely held as 2 of the top 3 QBs in the sport, I would say for Rodgers, Brees, and Brady (22 TDs, 6 INTs) to be canonized each week and for Romo to have his job questioned just shows the silliness of pregame shows and sports talk radio in general.

Yes, Rodgers, Brees, and Brady have Super Bowl Rings. Of course they do. But, any guy in a sports bar can tell you that fact. He can tick down a list of guys with rings and say they are good and everyone else is lousy. But, I would expect top analysts to bring a little more information to the table than a guy in a jersey sitting in the booth over.

With the Cowboys 4 losses since Detroit, 3 times, Romo had the team in a position to win the game when he left the field (or in the New York game, at least get to OT). Against New England, the defense didn't have another stand in them. Against the Cardinals, the Field Goal incident happened. And against the Giants, Austin lost the ball in the lights and then Jason Pierre Paul blocked a FG.

But, if you go snap by snap and game by game, the Cowboys get a top grade at the QB position nearly ever week. His 107.1 rating since week 4 demonstrates that they are getting elite QB play despite inconsistent running and a very uneven performances from the offensive line.

And yet, the December record gets attached to Romo. His team has a poor record in December, and therefore it is obviously his fault, right? Well, in his last 7 December games, he has 15 TDs and 1 INT. Surely other QBs could do better, right?

It must be great to play for the Cowboys if you aren't Tony Romo or the coach (whoever that is at a given time). If the defense can't get a stop, the talking heads will jump Romo. If the line can't block, it is clearly Romo's fault. If a player drops a pass or misses a kick, the guys back at the studio in New York or Los Angeles will dust off their Romo rants. It speaks to his mental makeup that this reality never crushes his spirit.

We live in a city where a certain basketball star lived under the same scrutiny until June 2011. He was blamed for things that were his fault and things that weren't his fault. It was too easy just to say the same things about him rather than actually investigate why his team couldn't win it all.

And that is why on October 3, the day after the Detroit meltdown, Dirk Nowitzki felt for Romo and sent this missive out on Twitter: "Dear tony romo. Don't worry abt all the critics. I heard that same garbage for a long time. Keep working hard and keep improving."

Keep working hard and keep improving. Well, it appears that Romo took that advice to heart. He has played so well since that day. But, the Cowboys have weaknesses on this team that are clearly not overcome every week with elite QB play. Sometimes, he can pull them out of the fire (at Washington, Miami) and some weeks he cannot (at Arizona, New York).

After Saturday night's monster performance, Romo sat there as the NFL Network talked to him in that condescending way about accountability and whether winning matters. He took it as he always does with his guarded responses and his smiles. He then played along as Deion Sanders promised to wear Romo's jersey despite being a Romo critic if the Cowboys get to the NFC title game. Surely, Romo will find inspiration to know that Deion would actually give him credit if he made it in January.

Romo knows as anyone who follows this team knows as well; if the Cowboys don't win it all with Romo at QB, it will be his fault.

Even when it isn't.

Where (Ware) are the Sacks?

The Cowboys defense has been heavy under the microscope this week after surrendering 400 yards passing, 510 yards in total offense, and 37 points in the home loss to the Giants on the weekend. Rob Ryan's credentials have been examined closer and the defense in general has been targeted for ridicule for their inability to come close to sacking Eli Manning.

The best way to stop an aerial show in the NFL is to apply pressure to the QB. When you cannot get to him in a reasonable amount of time, he is able to then get comfortable, go through his read progressions, and then make an easy throw to his intended target. The QBs at this level are too good to allow that to happen. Yet, again, the Cowboys did just that.

So, over the last several days, I have been asked to break down the pass rush of the Cowboys by the numbers and attempt to figure out how the Giants are doing this, and who on the Cowboys we should be asking much more of.

First, I believe it should all be heading of how good Eli Manning played in this game from an intelligence standpoint. His ability and maturity as a QB has really progressed over the last few seasons, and as critical as I have been of him over the years, I leave this evaluation very impressed by Manning. Rob Ryan threw a ton of things in his direction and was unable to rattle him. In 2008, Eli Manning was sacked 8 times in his final visit to Texas Stadium (the biggest sack performance by a Cowboys defense since 1997) and looked very poor. Since then, he has played 3 games at Dallas and has been sacked once. And I submit that much of it is due to the QB learning how to slow down a pass rush by making sound decisions and getting the ball out quickly. His older brother has been a master of this art for more than a decade, and now it appears Eli is figuring it out, too.

Keep in mind that the Giants had David Diehl (LG) playing Left Tackle against DeMarcus Ware. This was supposed to be a field day for Ware, and it never materialized. It has been suggested in the media that the Cowboys had Ware double-teamed every down. I went back and tried to verify that theory, and here is what I found:

DeMarcus Ware Against New York - 33 pass rush situations:

Lined Up	Single Team	Sacks-Pressure	Double Team	Sacks-Pressure
RT	6	0-2	7	0-1
LT	15	0-2	5	0-0

HTML Tables

As you can see, Ware had 33 chances to get after Eli Manning and ended up with 5 pressures, 0 QB hits, and 0 sacks. How did the Giants do that with David Diehl? Click here to see Ware's 5 pressures.



If you go back and look at those situations where Ware and Diehl squared off, there were almost no occasions when Eli Manning held the ball for any period of time. The ball was out on 3-step drops on quick outs to his WRs or dump downs to a TE. They were not crazy enough to ask Diehl to hold his ground against Ware except on rare occasions. And each of those rare occasions included Eli looking out of the corner of his eye and ready to get rid of the ball.

Then, the Cowboys tried to flip him to the right against the equally underwhelming Kareem McKenzie. McKenzie has been their full-time Right Tackle and ProFootballFocus.com rates him as the 66th tackle in the NFL this year. And yet, the Cowboys were unable to get there on him, either.

Ware did slightly better against McKenzie, but the Giants were very quick to send double teams if they knew they had a pass on that would require any amount of protection.

Here is how Rob Ryan deployed pass rushers, separated by down:

Pass Rushers Against New York - 50 pass rush situations:

Pass Rushers	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
3	6	5	1	0	12
4	6	4	5	0	15
5	7	4	4	1	16
6	2	1	3	0	6
7	0	0	1	0	1

HTML Tables

Eli threw 47 passes (and 3 more passes where penalties rendered it "no play) and the Cowboys tried many different ideas. Ryan would try to bring 5, 6, and even 7 and his guys couldn't get home. On 10 occasions, Ryan sent defensive backs. Still no sacks.
And even worse, no real hits on Manning. He was comfortable and the Cowboys couldn't change that comfort no matter what they tried.

There has been plenty said about the Cowboys defense and the deployment of the 11. Still more is bothersome about the apparent confusion on assignments and timeouts are wasted. At this point of the season, there is no question things should be more seamless, however, on the issue of pass rush, I fear that the strategy is not the problem.

When you have a coordinator who is varying his approach, by trying every conceivable idea in every possible scenario, then you are left to wonder about the quality of the players involved. With Ware, you have true quality. His credentials are flawless and his production is off the charts, by any standard. But, it appears he is hurt and the season has taken its toll. He had 12 sacks after 7 games but just 3 sacks in the last 6.

Additionally, if you are the Giants, you will spend all week figuring out how to handle Ware in each and every scenario. It is certainly way easier said than done, but they executed it flawlessly and then were aided with Ware missing 18 of the final 24 snaps. On 2 of the 6 he was back, he committed crucial penalties trying to cheat the snap count.

But, what of the rest of those Dallas defenders? Anthony Spencer was largely facing single-teams (as is often the case) and he couldn't get home. In fact, Victor Butler had one of the two QB hits (Barry Church) in his spells for Ware late in the game. The defensive ends rushed 68 times and never touched the QB once. Jay Ratliff makes plays every game, but interior pass rush is merely a bonus to his arsenal until the Cowboys move him outside (which doesn't appear to be an option on a defense without a true nose tackle).

Bottom line seems to be this: We can continue to blame Rob Ryan for getting the scheme wrong and wonder why DeMarcus Ware doesn't have 4 sacks a game, but the truth is that Ryan tried everything and the Giants only objective is to stop Ware. The Giants gambled that nobody else would bother Eli Manning on the Cowboys defensive front and they were quite right. The Tyron Smith pick was a marvelous one that addressed a real need on the offensive line, but passing on elite rookie defensive ends like JJ Watt really hurt after games like this one. If only the Cowboys had 2 picks at #9.

This is not to say that Rob Ryan is flawless or that Ware does need to get home regardless of what the Giants do. But the truth seems that the Cowboys have many holes on this roster that scheme can only cover up on certain occasions. They lack difference makers that defy Xs and Os, and until they improve that number of difference makers, we might continue to blame the coordinator for not "coaching them up".

This lack of pass rush seems to be a simple matter of the Cowboys needing to improve the pieces on their defense. Many suggested that last summer, but Dallas thought they could get away with some cheap fixes. And now, they see why that might not have been a great decision.

Decoding Garrett - Week 13 - Data - NY Giants

This loss is going to hurt for a while. And it starts with the dynamic performance from the offense. You seldom lose games where you have 3 different drives that go 80 yards and score touchdowns each time. Also, you seldom lose when your offense converts on 50% of the 3rd Down opportunities. That 50% (5-10) was the 2nd best game all season in that category, trailing only the spectacular performance against Buffalo.

And you seldom lose when you roll up 445 yards. The Cowboys average 390 yards per game offensively, but usually when they are above 430, they are very tough to beat. San Francisco (473), Detroit (433), St Louis (441), Seattle (442), Buffalo (439), and now, New York (445) all fall in that category. Only the Detroit and New York games were losses, and I think most would agree that the Cowboys played well enough to win those two games. In the case of the Detroit game, they at least could blame turnovers as the difference. But, this contest only featured 1 Cowboys' turnovers, and the teams were even.

When analyzing simply the offense, it is very hard to pick on their performance on Sunday. They put up huge numbers and a huge point total and from an offensive standpoint, that should absolutely be enough to win the game.

Here is a number that might make you sick: Since 1998, the Cowboys have lost only 2 games in which they have scored 34 points. This one, and last year's home game against the New York Giants. That game was lost 41-35, as the Cowboys could not slow down Eli Manning in Arlington. Sound familiar? Sunday, the score was 37-34, and the Cowboys lost again in Arlington to Eli Manning.

Here is another number that might make you equally sick: December 3, 1989, was the last time a Cowboys QB threw for 4 Touchdowns and lost a game. That day, rookie QB Troy Aikman threw for 4 TDs in a 35-31 loss to Jim Everett and the Los Angeles Rams. All time, the Cowboys are 25-6 in those cases. It was Romo's 6th 4 Touchdown game and he had won the first 5.

It appears, from a purely offensive standpoint, that the team has to be prepared to score nearly every possession when they play the Giants. And they did a near-fabulous job. But, they left points on the field in the 4th Quarter with the miss to Austin on 3rd Down and the blocked Field Goal. And as crazy as it seems, that was enough to take the loss. There was almost no margin for error for the offense on Sunday night because the defense was so bad.

It was the 14th time in Dallas Cowboys history they had conceded 500 yards (510) in total offense to their opponent. They have won just 3 of those games.

The Cowboys finally had their full arsenal of weapons present with Miles Austin back into the mix, and the Cowboys looked like a very powerful offense. In fact, their average yards to go on 3rd Down was 2nd best all season long (5.2) to the Seattle game. They still clearly didn't believe in their offensive line holding off the Giants front, but I would not debit Garrett on that. I would say if there is any offensive line in which you better be careful about, it would be the one that knocked your QB out for the season last time they visited. Quick passes, short drops, and don't ask your OL or QB to hold the fort longer than they are capable.

The full arsenal was short-lived as DeMarco Murray was lost for the year, which should trouble just about everyone around this organization. It will be tempting for Garrett to fall back into a majority of "shotgun" snaps with Felix since that seems to be where Jones is more comfortable rather than the under center "21" or "22" runs with a FB. One could certainly imagine the Cowboys not using Fiammetta much with Jones moving forward, based on Felix's extremely short resume of FB success.

Meanwhile, Phil Costa made it 26 snaps before suffering a concussion. Kevin Kowalski replaced him for the final 33 plays and did an admirable job. Again, Garrett was smart not to ask the offense to do too much on a play by play basis.

In summary, some solid results and the offense can take some solace in some great raw numbers. However, there will be enough gnashing of teeth about the missed opportunity to ice the game on the 3rd Down pass to Miles that would have iced the game.

There is only one statistic that matters.

Data from Week 13 vs Giants

Run-Pass	24-35
1st Down Run-Pass	12-18
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.78
2nd Down Run-Pass	10-9
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	5.20
3rd Down Run-Pass	2-8
3rd Down Conversions	5-10, 50%

HTML Tables

Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan.

Notice, again, the trend of believing in the run game. It happens more at home than on the road. It happens early in games more than late. In order to get run game production, you have to give it a chance. And Sunday, they let it breathe a bit and got some decent results. But, with Murray getting hurt, time will tell if they believe in it down the stretch - starting on the road in Tampa Bay.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass
Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass
Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass
Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 9-Buffalo - 10 Drives - 7 Run/3 Pass
Wk 10-At Washington - 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 11-Miami - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 12-At Arizona - 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 13-New York - 12 Drives - 7 Run/5 Pass
Total: 148 Drives - 65 Run/83 Pass 44% Run


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.


Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	0	0	0-0	0-0
12	13	95	8-64	5-31
13	0	0	0-0	0-0
21	13	46	9-39	4-7
22	5	19	4-10	1-9
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S02	6	74	0-0	6-74
S11	22	211	3-26	19-185
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0
Knee	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	59	445	24-139	35-306

Table Tutorial

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	1	3	1-3	0-0	1/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S02	2	70	0-0	2-70	1/0
S11	7	33	1-12	6-31	3/0
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	10	116	2-15	8-101	5/0

Table Tutorial

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

On Sunday Night, we see that the Cowboys went to the shotgun quite a bit again. In fact, percentage wise, 48.3% of the time, the Cowboys were in shotgun. Only the San Francisco game had more shotgun - 48.4% - and you will recall that the Cowboys went to straight shotgun once they fell behind in that game. These numbers are somewhat skewed as Dallas found itself in 2-minute drill in both halves.

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66
Wk 2 - SF: 32/66
Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62
Wk 4 - Det: 29/75
Wk 5 - NE 31/67
Wk 6 - StL 10/60
Wk 7 - Phi 39/49
Wk 8 - Sea 19/59
Wk 9 - Buf 15/61
Wk 10-Was 24/73
Wk 11-Mia 25/58
Wk 12-Arz 29/67
Wk 13-NYG 28/58

Total - 332/820 40.4%


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Tomorrow, we shall focus on the snap-by-snap deployment of DeMarcus Ware to try to get answers on why Eli Manning was barely touched in his performance.

And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

The Morning After: Giants 37, Cowboys 34 (7-6)

It is certainly difficult to define what constitutes a "good defense" in today's NFL. The days of domination from the defensive side of the ball seem almost theoretical and nostalgic in many regards. The Steel Curtain? Doomsday? Most defenses in this league now routinely surrender 4 Touchdowns in a big game and we just accept that the new rules and the evolution of football dictate that you never shut down offenses anymore - you just try to get a key stop at a key moment.

So, against that backdrop, we examine the post-Wade Phillips defensive era and attempt to provide some context to a Cowboys defense that never excites the fans and media like the torching of Tony Romo and Jason Garrett, but it may provide a little more substance than those exercises anyway.

A fascinating number started circulating last night after the Cowboys gutting 37-34 defeat at the hands of the Giants that provided some insight about how the Cowboys continue to lose games that are in their grasp at the moment of truth. Now that Garrett is 12-9 as coach of the Cowboys, it is interesting to note that 8 of the 9 defeats featured a Dallas 4th Quarter lead (only the Sunday night loss in Philadelphia did not). Many of them, including last night's affair were of the double-digit variety (NYJ, Det, NYG) and all of them threaten to derail the playoff train here in 2011.

Last night's 4th Quarter lead was maximized when Sean Lee picked off a pass and 2 plays later Romo hits a wide-open Dez Bryant from midfield and the Cowboys appeared to have sealed a huge divisional battle with a 34-22 lead with less than 6 minutes to go in the game.

The only way the Cowboys lose the game from there is if they allow 2 Touchdowns on 2 drives and score nothing on their 2 remaining drives to end the game. And, in that exercise, they sadly went 4-4.

Eli Manning, the subject of countless debates and a fair amount of ridicule, absolutely owns this stadium. In 3 trips in, he has left with 3 wins - all requiring his passing to be excellent, and he answered the bell all 3 times. 77-120, 1036 yards and 8 TDs in only 3 trips! If anyone deserves to sign the wall at Cowboys Stadium, it would be Eli. His passer rating of 99.9 in this stadium is enough to concede that he is plenty good to deal with this particular defense regardless of how he does the other weeks of the year. And the most stunning statistic on his ledger? In those 3 trips to the new stadium in Arlington, Eli Manning has been sacked 1 time. Once. DeMarcus Ware got him in 2010. Otherwise, the other 120 times he dropped back to pass, he did so without a whole lot of resistance from the Cowboys pass rush. Being sacked once every 121 pass attempts is certainly not going to get it done.

Down 12, Manning drove his team right down the field. Rob Ryan would rush as few as 3 defenders or as many as 7. Manning seemed fine with either option as he would either enjoy all day to throw or find tasty coverage opportunities down the field. He was impossible to rattle, yet again. And cashed in on a 3rd and 1 when the Cowboys sent 7 as he lofted a pass to Victor Cruz for 23 yards down the right side. Later, the Cowboys sent just 4 and he fired a rocket to Hakeem Nicks for 24 yards down to the 8 yard line. 2 plays later, against a 3 man rush, Manning finds his tight end posting up Sean Lee for a TD and the lead is now 34-29 with a bit over 3 minutes to play.

Now, the Cowboys take the ball at their own 20 yard line and are a play or two away from making sure the Giants never see the ball again. 3rd and 5 from the 25 yard line with 2:25 to play and the Giants only having one timeout left is the game that will properly receive massive amounts of discussion this week. The Cowboys need one play to likely salt away the contest. And Perry Fewell, the Giants defensive coordinator, decides to send everyone. It is a "Cover 0" blitz which is the riskiest coverage in football, and the Cowboys get an opportunity to show why as Miles Austin runs right by Aaron Ross and has a substantial gap with nothing between him and the endzone. Unfortunately, between Romo's throw which was a tad long and Austin's admission that he lost the ball in the lights, the ball falls incomplete, the clock stops, and the punt team comes on to the field. It was simply a play that has to be converted, and if it is, the division title is quite possibly presented to the Cowboys right then and there. It was not, and now the onus will fall on the defense to preserve a 5-point lead with only one chance left for the Giants.

After a poor punt from Mat McBriar, the Cowboys had to protect 58 yards. A field goal would not hurt them, and they simply had to keep the Giants out of the endzone. Again, it is unfortunate to mix a poor pass rush with poor pass coverage, but the Cowboys seemed to have no ability to get a stop.

First, an easy dump down to Jake Ballard turns into a 22-yard gain as Anthony Spencer is trailing the undrafted Tight End down the field. Then, on the 1st play inside the 2-minute warning, an errant snap and a huge loss for New York is nullified as Ware is offsides at exactly the wrong time and for the second time in as many drives. A 2nd and long turns into a 1st and 5. 9 yards to Victor Cruz moves the chains again to at the Dallas 24. On the very next play, a 3 man rush leaves Eli to pick his spot and he drops a beautiful pass into the endzone on Mario Manningham's hands. Manningham had run by Terence Newman and was open for the go-ahead touchdown, but the pass fell off his hands. A drop gave the Cowboys a reprieve.

Trouble was, it was a short-lived reprieve. A near sack is taken off the board because of a defensive holding play. With 1:21 to play, again, the Cowboys cannot cover Ballard as they rush 2 (it appeared Spencer was not aware of his assignment as he covered the same RB (Bradshaw) out of the backfield that Sean Lee was already on) and Manning finds Ballard down to the 1-yard line as he eludes Danny McCray. Two snaps later, Brandon Jacobs is celebrating yet again, a 2-pt conversion is also good, and with :46 left, the Giants take a 37-34 lead.

No timeouts, 80 yards to go, and the Cowboys only had :46 to play. Romo and Miles Austin practically get it all back in 2 plays and have the team down to the Giants 29 yard line with 6 ticks left on the clock. And when Dan Bailey attempts the game-tying kick, Jason Pierre Paul does what he has done all night - dominates the play and blocks the kick. Game Over. Giants win.

A series of unfortunate events again conspire to give the Cowboys another gutting loss. In their 1st 50 years of football, the Cowboys had lost 11 point+ 4th Quarter leads just twice (Nov 28, 1965 at Washington and Oct 23, 1988 at Philadelphia). Then, in 2011, they have done it 3 times. Remarkable and maddening altogether. They are surrendering big leads and doing it quite often when the opponent has to go a long way to get to the end zone.

Very few timely sacks and too many confused and over-run coverage situations. Sometimes, it is Tom Brady or Eli Manning. Other times it has been Rex Grossman and Kevin Kolb who have done the deed late in the game against the Cowboys. They cannot seem to get there without a blitz, and when they do blitz, their coverage is hopelessly compromised.

It would be impossible to find a sole offender for this loss. As is often the case, it is a total team effort that wins and loses in the NFL. Coaches and players all share in the spoils. And again, in a home game against their hated rivals, the Cowboys played well enough to win, but leave with a loss due to too many mistakes at high leverage moments.

It is an episode we are all getting used to seeing in the new stadium. And now, they are backed up against the wall yet again.

A First For Garrett

Let's cover three different Cowboys issues this morning:

The Cowboys are preparing for a massive showdown with the New York Giants on Sunday night, and even though the implications of the result speak for themselves, the details of this series are worth visiting.

In the first meeting between these two teams in 2006, Tony Romo was substituted into the game at halftime of a Monday Night affair. Thus started the "Romo Era" and ended the career of Drew Bledsoe starting in the NFL.

Since that night, the teams have met 10 times in the regular season (there was also that 1 playoff meeting in 2007) and the series is locked at 5-5. Points in those 10 meetings are also as tight as can be, with the Giants holding a 279-278 advantage. Only once in those 10 games has each offense scored less than 20 points. The Giants were held to 8 in their last visit to Texas Stadium in December of 2008, and the Cowboys scored just 14 when Brooks Bollinger subbed in for Brad Johnson in a forgettable day in November 2008 - a day best remembered for Mike Jenkins bailing out on a tackle against Derrick Ward.

Beyond that, it has been well documented that the offenses control this series. In his only two visits to Cowboys Stadium, Eli Manning has carved up the Cowboys with great ease, throwing for 6 TDs, 636 yards, and 2 wins. Orlando Scandrick, in particular, has been victimized over and over again by Eli and the slot receivers for the Giants in these two meetings. In 2009, they threw at Scandrick 13 times, completing 10 passes for 144 yards. Then, in 2010, Eli went after the outside corners of Dallas in their trip here (which cost the Cowboys Romo for the rest of the season) throwing at Newman 11 times (7 completions for 106 yards) and Jenkins 9 times (7 completions for 92 yards) according to our friends at ProFootballFocus.com.

There are countless objectives to beating the Giants on Sunday, but the emphasis to beating the Giants needs to be on slowing down the Giants passing attack which seems tailor-made for attacking Wade Phillips' defense. Now, Rob Ryan is on the main stage and we will see what he tries to do with timely blitzing. One great item to note is that Steve Smith is no longer on the Giants roster. In 3 starts against the Cowboys in the last 2 seasons, Smith has been targeted 37 times by Eli Manning for 25 catches. 345 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 15 1st Downs demonstrates what a handful he has been running the slot for the Giants. But, that now is left to others, and I am guessing that starting with Scandrick, the Cowboys are quite fine with that.

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There could be a "first" accomplished on Sunday for Jason Garrett and his offense. This could be the first time that he has a full compliment of his weapons on the field for an entire game (assuming that everyone can make it through without injury).

Think about that. We aren't talking about losing a LB or a guard. We are talking about having all of your skill players available for 1 complete game. Other teams deal with injuries, too, but it sure seems that the Cowboys have had a heck of a time just getting to explore what a fully operational arsenal could present to opponents. 20 games as head coach of the Cowboys, and he has enjoyed exactly 0 with his starting QB, RB, TE, and top 3 WRs at the same time. Here is the list of those 20 games and details about who was present:


2010

Wk 9 - NYG - No Romo
Wk 10 - Det - No Romo
Wk 11 - NO - No Romo, Lost Barber
Wk 12 - IND - No Romo, No Barber, Lost Dez
Wk 13 - Phil - No Romo, No Dez, No Barber, Lost Roy Williams
Wk 14 - Wash - No Romo, No Dez, No Barber, No Williams
Wk 15 - Arz - No Romo, No Dez
Wk 16 - Phil - No Romo, No Dez

2011

Wk 1 - NYJ - All Present (Dez injured early), No Robinson (DNP)
Wk 2 - SF - No Dez, Romo left game, Austin hurt, No Robinson (DNP)
Wk 3 - Wash - No Austin
Wk 4 - Det - No Austin
Wk 5 - NE - All Present (Felix leaves game with injury)
Wk 6 - STL - No Felix
Wk 7 - Phil - No Felix
Wk 8 - Sea - No Felix, Austin hurt
Wk 9 - Buf - No Felix, No Austin
Wk 10 - Was - No Austin
Wk 11 - Mia - No Austin
Wk 12 - Arz - No Austin

It goes without saying that during the "No Felix" period, the Cowboys discovered they actually had a better RB behind him in DeMarco Murray, but that doesn't mean that they couldn't use the dynamic play making ability of Felix. Now, with 3 competent WRs, 2 explosive RBs, Witten and Romo all present together, the onus will be on the offense to make this opportunity count.

It sounds like excuses to blame the lack of production on a few selected injuries, but at some point, you have to recognize that Jon Kitna, Jesse Holley, and Kevin Ogletree are not capable of things that Romo, Dez, and Miles are. Simple facts of pro football.

Maybe, just maybe, one of the reasons the offense has not been as explosive as it appears it should be on paper is that they just can't ever run the offense that they thought they were going to be able to run all offseason long.

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Finally, here is last week's Romo passing chart. Blue is for completions, Red is for incompletions, Yellow is the TD to Dez.



I think it demonstrates again that there was not much explosiveness down the field at all. Patrick Peterson did a nice job on Dez Bryant down the field and broke up a few deep shots. Otherwise, we see yet again that when the Cowboys "go conservative", it is usually with quick passes to the edge and a hope that the receiver can break a play. When that play never really materializes, the Cowboys must string together plenty of long drives that can easily be derailed by a penalty, sack, or other negative play. And there were plenty of sacks to stop drives on Sunday.