Showing posts with label targets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label targets. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 05, 2011

Targets - Game 16 - Eagles

http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2011/01/bob-sturms-target-analysis-vs-6.html

And so it ends...

The Cowboys offense put up another 4,000 yard season through the air, but obviously, the efficiency was not at its best as the season wound down. Jon Kitna is not Tony Romo and Stephen McGee is not Jon Kitna, either.

But, the season was lost long before Halloween, so it was what it was.

In the final game, we saw just how difficult a passing attack can have it on the road - even against the reserves of the Philadelphia Eagles. The Cowboys just were not interested in rolling the dice to move the football down the field through the air and I am not sure anyone will blame them.

Meanwhile, on 3rd and 4th Down, things really were tough. A long WR screen to Austin in the 1st and a TD pass to Witten in the 4th were pretty much the only things that the Cowboys accomplished on the money down.

Target Distribution: - Game 16 at Philadelphia
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin32622/0/0109.7
Witten94461/1/097.4
Jones11-40/0/079.2
Choice2000/0/039.6
Bennett32111/0/072.9
Johnson4160/0/039.6
Williams3160/0/039.6
Totals25111273/1/073.3



3RD/4TH Down Targets - Week 16 at Philadelphia
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Witten5140/1/079.2
Austin21311/0/095.8
Johnson3160/0/042.4
Williams1000/0/039.5
Totals113411/1/072.9


And now, here are the season totals for 2010....Very interesting things to see here

===============

Maybe the things that jump out the most are Witten's amazingly consistent totals, Roy Williams numbers being below Patrick Crayton's 2009, and Martellus Bennett having another season without any sign of that "breakout" season that we all forecasted.


Target Distribution - Season Totals
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Witten12894100238/9/3109.6
Austin11969104143/7/685.5
Bryant724556121/6/2102.8
Williams643753820/5/578.8
Jones524845014/1/1101.1
Barber1311491/0/082.3
Choice22171096/0/087.1
Bennett483326011/0/264.6
Ogletree63342/0/067.3
Hurd21141209/0/081.4
Gronkowski107351/0/075
Johnson5160/0/039.6
Totals5703794251169/29/1991.6



3RD/4TH Down Targets - Season Totals
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Witten452928714/5/391.6
Austin342336316/2/1110.3
Bryant25161988/4/1111.3
Williams1581596/1/0112.9
Bennett65331/0/089.6
Choice87513/0/093.2
Jones55820/1/0158.3
Barber44371/0/0105.2
Hurd85514/0/080.7
Ogletree2151/0/056.3
Johnson3160/0/042.3
Totals153101122754/13/572.9


================================

And, for fun, let's put the 2009 Totals on here, too:

2009 Season Target Distribution To Date:
NameTargetsCatches%YardsFD/TD/INT
Witten1249476%103046/2/3
Austin1248165%132043/11/2
Williams863844%59621/7/1
Crayton673754%62220/5/2
Barber362672%22211/0/0
Bennett301550%1598/0/0
Choice221568%1327/0/0
Jones221986%1125/0/0
Hurd12758%1323/1/1
Phillips9667%623/0/0
Ogletree8787%965/0/0
Anderson3133%50/0/
Totals54334764%4483178/26/9

Table Tutorial



And then here are the 2009 totals for 3rd Downs:

3rd Down Targets - 2009 Season Totals
NameTargetsCatches%YardsFD/TD/INT
Witten342470%21016/1/0
Austin322063%32114/2/0
Williams27933%1518/0/0
Crayton241563%21413/1/2
Choice10770%603/0/0
Hurd5240%632/0/0
Bennett5120%151/0/0
Ogletree44100%583/0/0
Barber200%00/0/0
Jones21100%50/0/0
Phillips100%00/0/0
Totals1478356%109057/4/3

Table Tutorial



===========

Bob Sturm is host of BaD Radio on The Ticket 1310 AM Mondays through Fridays at 12-3 p.m. He also hosts The Ticket's Cowboys pregame show. Follow Bob on Twitter at www.twitter.com/bobanddan Bob offers his exclusive analysis after games on SportsDayDFW.com

Read all of Bob's posts at this link:
http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/bob-sturm

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Targets - Game 15 - Cardinals

http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/12/bob-sturms-target-analysis-vs-5.html

Any week where you give away 2 interceptions for Touchdowns, you face an extremely difficult mountain to climb to try to pull a victory out of the fire. They also suffered 5 sacks, so from a production standpoint, this was not going to be pretty. An overall passer rating of below 75 demonstrated the difficulty of a team playing with a 2nd and then a 3rd QB, and missing Dez Bryant.

What the Cowboys did get done was mostly done on 3rd and 4th Down. This has saved their bacon plenty this year, and that trend continued on Saturday.

Here are the numbers from Game #15:

Target Distribution: - Game 15 vs Arizona
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin1361154/1/171.0
Witten118452/1/0110.0
Jones11111/0/0112.5
Choice33161/0/088.9
Bennett53220/0/070.4
Hurd22171/0/0102.1
Williams2000/0/10
Totals37232269/2/274.8


Now look at the make or break downs. Another big 4th Down TD to Witten and some very nice conversions in the 2nd Half from McGee.

3RD/4TH Down Targets - Week 15 vs Arizona
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Witten54222/1/0124.6
Austin42372/0/082.3
Hurd11131/0/0118.7
Choice22131/0/093.75
Williams1000/0/039.5
Totals139856/1/0112.7


Here are the season numbers for the receivers: It is amazing what sort of statistical comeback Witten has had in the last few months after a very slow start.

Target Distribution - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Witten1199095637/8/3110.5
Austin1166797941/7/683.9
Bryant724556121/6/2102.8
Williams613653220/5/580.7
Jones514745414/1/1102.1
Barber1311491/0/082.3
Choice20171096/0/089.3
Bennett453124910/0/264.0
Ogletree63342/0/067.3
Hurd21141209/0/081.4
Gronkowski107351/0/075
Johnson1000/0/039.5
Totals5453684124166/28/1992.4



3RD/4TH Down Targets - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Witten402828314/4/392.0
Austin322233215/2/1110.4
Bryant25161988/4/1111.3
Williams1481596/1/0120.8
Bennett65331/0/089.6
Choice87513/0/093.2
Jones55820/1/0158.3
Barber44371/0/0105.2
Hurd85514/0/080.7
Ogletree2151/0/056.3
Totals14298118653/12/5107.9


1 week to go before we close the books (some might say, thankfully) on 2010.

===========

Bob Sturm is host of BaD Radio on The Ticket 1310 AM Mondays through Fridays at 12-3 p.m. He also hosts The Ticket's Cowboys pregame show. Follow Bob on Twitter at www.twitter.com/bobanddan Bob offers his exclusive analysis after games on SportsDayDFW.com

Read all of Bob's posts at this link:
http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/bob-sturm

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Targets - Game 14 - Redskins

http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/12/bob-sturms-target-analysis-vs-4.html

Death, Taxes, and Jason Witten.

There are certainties and then there are absolute certainties. Jason Witten is someone who is so certain in his results that we actually are guilty of not writing about him enough.

But, here we are, in a season where many of us were very concerned with how his season began. For reasons that were difficult to explain, his production while Tony Romo was present in the game was shockingly low. Through 5.5 games this season, Jason Witten had 38 targets, 23 catches, 270 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs on passes thrown to him, and a putrid QB Rating of 58.0.

This had us all wondering what was happening. The most consistent Cowboys performer of our generation was not performing to his level of awesomeness.

Had he lost a step? Had the wear and tear on his body started to catch up to him? Can he no longer present a mismatch conflict where LBs are too slow and Safeties are too small? We have theories as to why Jon Kitna and Miles Austin don't connect, but Romo and Witten? That is as money a combination as almost anybody in this league. What was happening?

We may never know what was wrong there, but beginning in Game 6, 2 things changed. Romo got hurt and Kitna began to pound the ball at #82. Now, you know my theory - Kitna's arm is one that loves to rely on the throw in the middle of the field and take what is given to him. He is not going to throw sideline to sideline both shallow and deep. He cannot and will not attempt to do that.

So, here comes #82. Since Game 6, look at this: 70 Targets, 59 Catches, 641 yards, 6 TDs, and 0 INTs. A QB Rating over the next 9 games of 133! Shockingly awesome.

The rumors of his decline appear to be greatly exaggerated.

He has plenty of miles on his tires, but at the age of 28, it is much too early to proclaim that it is time to move on to the next one.

So, now you look at his body of work for the season and see that he is what he always is: money in the bank. It appears that he will have another 90-catch, 1000-yard season and this year, unlike 2009, he will get in the end zone a bunch. He has tied a career high with 7 TDs, and obviously has 2 more games to go find #8.


Target Distribution: - Game 14 vs Washington
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin73382/1/0100.0
Witten12101404/1/0143.0
Jones32472/0/0109.7
Choice54312/0/092.5
Bennett2120/0/056.25
Johnson1000/0/039.5
Hurd64353/0/081.9
Gronkowski11121/0/0116.6
Totals372530514/2/0110.75


Manny Johnson is now officially in the database.

3RD/4TH Down Targets - Week 14 vs Washington
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin1000/0/039.5
Hurd2171/0/058.3
Choice22191/0/0106.25
Witten55582/1/0154.58
Totals108844/1/0135.0


And now, a look at the season numbers where Witten has caught and passed Miles Austin in all of the categories.

Target Distribution - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Witten1088291135/7/3110.5
Austin1036186437/6/585.57
Bryant724556121/6/2102.8
Williams593653220/5/490.5
Jones504644313/1/1101.9
Barber1311491/0/082.3
Choice1714935/0/089.5
Bennett402822710/0/263.2
Ogletree63342/0/067.3
Hurd19121038/0/077.3
Gronkowski107351/0/075
Johnson1000/0/039.5
Totals5083453898157/26/1793.76



3RD/4TH Down Targets - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Witten352426112/3/383.2
Austin282029513/2/1114.4
Bryant25161988/4/1111.3
Williams1381596/1/0129.9
Bennett65331/0/089.6
Choice65382/0/093.1
Jones55820/1/0158.3
Barber44371/0/0105.2
Hurd74383/0/072.3
Ogletree2151/0/056.3
Totals12989110147/11/5107.4


===========

Bob Sturm is host of BaD Radio on The Ticket 1310 AM Mondays through Fridays at 12-3 p.m. He also hosts The Ticket's Cowboys pregame show. Follow Bob on Twitter at www.twitter.com/bobanddan Bob offers his exclusive analysis after games on SportsDayDFW.com

Read all of Bob's posts at this link:
http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/bob-sturm

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Targets - Week 13 - Philadelphia

http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/12/bob-sturms-target-analysis-vs-3.html

The Cowboys are getting very reasonable production from their Backup QB during this stretch without starter Tony Romo. The truth is that there are not 32 QBs in this league who cause defenses problems, so the idea that everyone believes each team should have 2 good ones is silly and unrealistic. Many teams would love to have 1 QB. The Cowboys had no backup in 2008 when Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger held the position so we know what backup QB play can look like. Kitna has been fine for the most part.

However, the longer we go into this, the more we see why the NFL no longer believed Jon was a viable starter. Because of his diminishing ability to distribute the ball across the field, defenses sit on his strengths and make him try to beat them by throwing to places that make him uncomfortable. They attempt to shrink the field for him, and when you play a defense that is well designed, you see that the Cowboys offense becomes a series of throws underneath - mostly to Tight Ends and Running Backs for small yardage over and over.

Look at the QB Ratings to his starting Wide Receivers. Miles Austin (14.1) and Roy Williams (28.1) show a QB Rating that tells you his efficiency to the outside is lacking. Both of his INTs were to WRs and they could not make up for those picks with positive plays to the edge. The big receptions were a screen to Felix, a seam route to Witten, and not much else.

The Cowboys miss Tony Romo. There is no reason to hurry him back in 2010, but this idea that the offense runs the same without him is nonsense.

Target Distribution: - Game 13 vs Philadelphia
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin52221/0/114.1
Witten77692/2/0147.3
Williams42231/0/128.1
Jones44421/0/0110.4
Choice11171/0/0118.7
Bennett54302/0/091.6
Ogletree53342/0/080.4
Hurd2151/0/056.3
Totals332424211/2/288.1


Against the Giants and Colts, Kitna had been making all of the throws on 3rd Down. The Eagles limited him on the money down and that was the big difference in this game.

3RD/4TH Down Targets - Week 13 vs Philadelphia
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin2000/0/10
Bennett32171/0/081.3
Williams1000/0/039.5
Witten1110/1/0118.7
Ogletree2151/0/056.2
Totals94232/1/149.1


Let's take a look at the completion percentage to each of the WRs in 2010: Miles Austin catches 60.4% of the passes thrown in his direction, Roy Williams is at 61%, and Dez Bryant is at 62% to show that there is almost no fluctuation from man to man this year. 2009 had Miles Austin at 65%, Patrick Crayton at 54%, and Roy Williams at the bottom of the NFL with a 44% catch rate. Jason Witten is at 75% for 2010, after a 76% 2009.

The big difference in the passing game this season is the jump in interceptions. In 2009, there were only 9 all year. The Cowboys are already sitting at 17 on the season and with 3 weeks to play, that number will likely go up more. Last season, no receiver had more than 3 Interceptions on balls targeted for them. But, we see that Miles Austin has had 5 Interceptions in his direction and Roy Williams 4 on balls intended for him already this season.

Target Distribution - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin965882635/5/583.9
Witten967277131/6/3105.8
Bryant724556121/6/2102.8
Williams593653220/5/490.5
Jones474439611/1/1100
Barber1311491/0/082.3
Choice1210623/0/088.2
Bennett382722510/0/264.0
Ogletree63342/0/067.3
Hurd138685/0/075.2
Gronkowski96230/0/079.1
Totals4713203593143/24/1792.4



3RD/4TH Down Targets - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin272029513/2/1118.6
Bryant25161988/4/1111.3
Williams1381596/1/0129.9
Witten301920310/2/365.7
Bennett65331/0/089.6
Choice43191/0/084.4
Jones55820/1/0158.3
Barber44371/0/0105.2
Hurd53312/0/077.9
Ogletree2151/0/056.3
Totals11981101743/10/5104.9


===========

Bob Sturm is host of BaD Radio on The Ticket 1310 AM Mondays through Fridays at 12-3 p.m. He also hosts The Ticket's Cowboys pregame show. Follow Bob on Twitter at www.twitter.com/bobanddan Bob offers his exclusive analysis after games on SportsDayDFW.com

Read all of Bob's posts at this link:
http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/bob-sturm

Wednesday, December 08, 2010

Targets - Week 12 - Colts

The Cowboys lost Dez Bryant on Sunday to an injury that has claimed the remainder of his rookie season. But, the book on Dez Bryant says that remarkable things happened in a rookie year that included just 12 games and no preseason. Looking back, I remember that many of us claimed that missing preseason would doom much of his rookie year. Why? Because it should. You should not be able to miss all of preseason as a rookie (especially when you miss almost the entire final year at college, too) and still have such a great year.

He finishes with 45 catches on 72 targets for 561 yards and team-leading 6 TDs. The QB Rating on balls thrown to Bryant is also a team-high, at 102.8. I believe the Cowboys have seen all they have to see that they have not blown this 1st Round pick. He has been wonderful and clearly has the most promising of futures for the Cowboys.

Target Distribution: - Game 12 at Indianapolis
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin84473/0/068.2
Bryant31141/0/049.3
Witten55423/1/0141.25
Williams22322/0/0118.7
Jones3380/0/079.1
Choice0000/0/00
Bennett33241/0/0100
Hurd1000/0/039.5
Totals251816710/1/0103.2


It was not a performance filled with fireworks for Jon Kitna. But, he did a nice job of complimenting a 200-yard rushing day by not turning the ball over, making a few key throws at key moments, and driving the bus. And, there is absolutely nothing wrong with that kind of day from your QB.

3RD/4TH Down Targets - Week 12 vs Indianapolis
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin2171/0/058.3
Bryant0000/0/00
Bennett0000/0/00
Williams0000/0/00
Witten33322/1/0150.7
Hurd1000/0/039.5
Totals64393/1/0124.5


Most interesting was the timing of the Kitna throws. Like in New York, we see that so much of the NFL comes down to making plays on 3rd Down. Kitna had 6 passes on the money down and converted on 4 of them to move the chains and keep going. His 3rd Down throw on the goal-line to Jason Witten is quite simply the difference between winning and losing.

Below, here are the season totals, with Dez Bryant now locked in. He is the leader in the clubhouse with TDs and QB Rating.

Target Distribution - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin915680434/5/490.2
Witten896570231/4/396.7
Bryant724556121/6/2102.8
Williams553450919/5/399.7
Jones434035410/1/199.0
Barber1311491/0/082.3
Choice119452/0/084.1
Bennett33231958/0/259.5
Ogletree1000/0/039.5
Hurd117634/0/079.0
Gronkowski96230/0/079.1
Totals4382963297132/22/1592.2


Any time you are 12 games into a season and your QBs are passing at a 110 rating on 3rd Downs for the year, you would never assume the team is 4-8. That seems nearly impossible, and yet, like many things from this 2010 with the Cowboys, it is.

3RD/4TH Down Targets - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin252029513/2/0142.5
Bryant25161988/4/1111.3
Williams1281596/1/0137.5
Witten291820210/1/354.7
Bennett33160/0/088.8
Choice43191/0/084.4
Jones55820/1/0158.3
Barber44371/0/0105.2
Hurd53312/0/077.9
Totals1107799441/9/4110.2


===========

Bob Sturm is host of BaD Radio on The Ticket 1310 AM Mondays through Fridays at 12-3 p.m. He also hosts The Ticket's Cowboys pregame show. Follow Bob on Twitter at www.twitter.com/bobanddan Bob offers his exclusive analysis after games on SportsDayDFW.com

Read all of Bob's posts at this link:
http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/bob-sturm

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Targets - Week 11 - New Orleans

The Saints game from an aerial perspective was pretty good. QB ratings weigh substantial value to TD's (of which the Cowboys had 0 through the air) and INT's (of which the Cowboys threw one). So, an otherwise solid night does not quite look as good from a QB Rating perspective with 0 TDs and 1 INT. However, Kitna, once again, was quite effective and the receivers and tight ends were very strong.

Except for Dez Bryant. For the 2nd consecutive week, Dez had very low numbers. In fact, the Detroit and New Orleans games represent the two lowest outputs for Dez all season long. Bryant has been a monster and it is clear that he is getting different coverage looks, so I would not call this a large concern. But, the opponents are not just going to sit around and wait for Bryant to kill them.

Otherwise, Jason Witten continues to rally from a slow start and the offense in general did a lot of nice things:

Here are the numbers for Game 11:

Target Distribution: - Game 11 vs New Orleans
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin53251/0/072.9
Bryant6000/0/10
Witten1010997/0/0107.9
Williams85834/0/097.4
Jones77692/0/0107.7
Barber2280/0/083.3
Choice0000/0/00
Bennett32170/0/081.2
Hurd11121/0/0116.6
Totals423031315/0/182.7


On 3rd and 4th Down, the Cowboys did pretty well. Of course, the 3rd Downs at the end did betray the Cowboys. A long reception to Roy Williams looked like the dagger but then became a fumble. And the final 3rd Down was a poor attempt to get Dez Bryant the ball. But, aside from Dez, Kitna was 9 for 9 and they are really getting nice production from a backup QB.

3RD/4TH Down Targets - Week 11 vs New Orleans
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin1171/0/095.8
Bryant3000/0/039.5
Bennett1190/0/0104.1
Williams22491/0/0118.7
Witten44363/0/0104.2
Hurd11121/0/0116.6
Totals1291136/0/0103.8


Here is a moderately interesting trend. Under Wade Phillips, Felix Jones had 157 yards receiving in 8 games for a total of 19 yards per game. Since Jason Garrett has taken over, Felix has 189 yards receiving in 3 games for 63 yards per game. Also, a total of 335 yards of Rushing + Receiving in 3 games for 111.6 total yards from scrimmage in the last 3 games. Not Earl Campbell, but if you can get 100+ yards from Felix Jones, you have to feel much better than earlier in the season when he had many games of less than 50 yards total.

Target Distribution - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin835275731/5/492.3
Witten846066028/3/391.4
Bryant694454720/6/2105.1
Williams533247717/5/397.7
Jones403734610/1/1100.6
Barber1311491/0/082.3
Choice119452/0/084.1
Bennett30201717/0/253.6
Ogletree1000/0/039.5
Hurd107634/0/086.6
Gronkowski96230/0/079.1
Totals4132783130122/21/1591.6


3RD/4TH Down Targets - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin231928812/2/0147.7
Bryant25161988/4/1111.3
Williams1281596/1/0137.5
Witten26151708/0/337.8
Bennett33160/0/088.8
Choice43191/0/084.4
Jones55820/1/0158.3
Barber44371/0/0105.2
Hurd43312/0/096.9
Totals1047395538/8/4108.5


It is still very interesting to see the difference between Jason Witten's overall numbers and his numbers on 3rd and 4th Down. He had a slow start and rallied very nicely overall, but still, the Cowboys' opponents refuse to let ol 82 beat them on a money down if they can help it.

===========

Bob Sturm is host of BaD Radio on The Ticket 1310 AM Mondays through Fridays at 12-3 p.m. He also hosts The Ticket's Cowboys pregame show. Follow Bob on Twitter at www.twitter.com/bobanddan Bob offers his exclusive analysis after games on SportsDayDFW.com

Read all of Bob's posts at this link:
http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/bob-sturm

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Targets - Week 10 vs Detroit

If I would have told you that the Cowboys were playing a game in which there was no Tony Romo, no running attack to speak of, and in that game the 3 best WRs (Austin, Bryant, and Williams) would combine for 35 yards, you likely would have told me the Cowboys would lose that game quite handily.

But, what if Miles Austin could catch 2 Touchdowns on a 7 yard day? How about Dez Bryant having an 8 yard afternoon, but also snagging a TD? So, 3 Touchdowns on 15 yards receiving from your two big threats? That would explain a day where your QB rating was off the charts for all involved.

Manage a game? If you can have a passer rating of 130, throw 3 TDs to 0 INTs, and constantly deliver on 3rd Down, you can win a game where your offense accumulates only 260 yards. The Cowboys proved it on Sunday. Efficiency is another way of saying they managed the game. They had no choice. Even one interception would have likely been enough to lose this game. So, let's credit Jon Kitna for doing what he did, but still understand that this recipe will not work very often. That means the Saints, Colts, and Eagles are not shaking in their boots after looking at this film.

Here are the numbers for Game 10:

Target Distribution: - Game 10 vs Detroit
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin3270/2/0109.7
Bryant4381/1/0116.6
Witten54483/0/0106.6
Williams22201/0/0108.3
Jones33352/0/0115.2
Barber11151/0/0118.7
Choice22140/0/095.8
Bennett0000/0/00
Gronkowski3100/0/042.3
Totals24181478/3/0129.7


3RD/4TH Down Targets - Week 10 vs Detroit
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin1140/1/0122.9
Bryant1110/1/0118.7
Jones1110/0/079.1
Williams0000/0/00
Witten22191/0/0106.2
Barber11151/0/0118.7
Totals66412/2/0134.7


These season-to-date numbers really fascinate me. Again, not every play or throw is created equal, so you want to see a rather flat performance when you look at various splits. Miles Austin, for whatever reason, is unstoppable on 3rd and 4th down, but only very good on normal downs. Jason Witten is fine on all downs, but on 3rd Down, he is being locked down upon.

Then there is Dez Bryant. 121.5 on all downs, 120.8 on 3rd and 4th Down. There is virtually no difference between the splits. He is amazing no matter what the situation. I am very curious if he can keep this uncommon trend going.

Target Distribution - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin784973230/5/493.5
Witten745056121/3/386.5
Bryant634454620/6/1121.5
Williams452739413/5/397.8
Jones33302788/1/199.2
Barber118431/0/078.9
Choice119462/0/084.1
Bennett27181557/0/250.6
Ogletree1000/0/039.5
Hurd74333/0/069.3
Gronkowski9390/0/079.1
Totals3712482817107/21/1492.6


3RD/4TH Down Targets - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin221828111/2/0149.1
Bryant22161988/4/1120.8
Williams1061105/1/0131.2
Witten22111345/0/329.5
Bennett2270/0/081.3
Choice43191/0/084.4
Jones55820/1/0158.3
Barber44371/0/0105.2
Hurd32192/0/084.0
Totals926484232/8/4109.1


Another remarkable item this season is the Cowboys QB performance on money downs. 92.6 overall is great, but on 3rd and 4th down, Romo and Kitna shoot up to 109.1 - a suggestion that the 3rd Down package is miles different from what it used to be. 2008, when 3 WR was a failure, it was Owens, Crayton, and Williams. Now, it is Austin, Dez, and Williams, and the 3 WR offense seems to be able to get where it wants much of the time.

===========

Bob Sturm is host of BaD Radio on The Ticket 1310 AM Mondays through Fridays at 12-3 p.m. He also hosts The Ticket's Cowboys pregame show. Follow Bob on Twitter at www.twitter.com/bobanddan Bob offers his exclusive analysis after games on SportsDayDFW.com

Read all of Bob's posts at this link:
http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/bob-sturm

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Targets - Game 9 - New York

As amazingly poor as the passing game was in Game #8, Game #9 was amazingly perfect. Hard to say anything but nice things about Jon Kitna - a guy who might have been a few games from giving way to Stephen McGee if he didn't put up a performance like that very soon. But, with plenty of help from Dez Bryant, Kitna engineered a very precise performance from the offense and the results of hitting on a number of big throws was arguably the best performance of the offense in 2010.

The development of Dez Bryant is off the charts. For a guy to miss every single preseason game and then to be the #1 threat on your offense as a rookie by mid-November is a testament to his talent level, hard work, and development. We are starting to see the Cowboys actively look for him in many situations, and it sure looks like Jon Kitna would rather throw it to him than anyone else on the offense - including Miles Austin.

Here are the numbers for Game 9:

Target Distribution: - Game 9 at New York
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin32681/1/0149.3
Bryant531042/1/1104.1
Witten2170/0/058.3
Williams22331/0/0118.7
Jones33851/1/0158.3
Barber0000/0/00
Choice0000/0/00
Bennett21321/0/095.8
Gronkowski2000/0/039.5
Ogletree0000/0/00
Hurd0000/0/00
Totals22133276/3/1124.1


Maybe the story of the game on offense was the Cowboys hitting on 2 very long 3rd down situations. 3rd and 10 to Feliz Jones for 71 yards and then the real back breaker was a 3rd and 22 conversion to Roy Williams on a superb throw down the sideline for 27 yards. A few conversions like that and everything looks better.

3RD/4TH Down Targets - Week 9 at New York
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin0000/0/00
Bryant1000/0/10
Jones21710/1/0135.4
Williams11271/0/0118.7
Witten2170/0/058.3
Totals631051/1/1135.4


And now your season numbers, where we see that Dez Bryant is closing in on the team lead in all categories that he already doesn't lead in. I suppose we could be really happy with his pace, or we could point out that Miles Austin has slowed to a trickle without Tony Romo and that Roy Williams has also dropped his pace to a typical Patrick Crayton season.

Target Distribution - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin754772530/3/485.7
Witten694651318/3/384.9
Bryant594153819/5/1119.1
Williams432537412/5/3118.7
Jones30272436/1/197.6
Barber107280/0/072.9
Choice97322/0/081.4
Bennett27181557/0/250.6
Ogletree1000/0/039.5
Hurd74333/0/069.3
Gronkowski6290/0/042.3
Totals347230267099/18/1489.8


3RD/4TH Down Targets - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin211727711/1/0134.6
Bryant21151978/3/1120.4
Williams1061105/1/0131.2
Witten2091154/0/323.9
Bennett2270/0/081.3
Choice43191/0/084.4
Jones44810/1/0158.3
Barber33220/0/097.2
Hurd32192/0/084.0
Totals865880130/6/4100.9


===========

Bob Sturm is host of BaD Radio on The Ticket 1310 AM Mondays through Fridays at 12-3 p.m. He also hosts The Ticket's Cowboys pregame show. Follow Bob on Twitter at www.twitter.com/bobanddan Bob offers his exclusive analysis after games on SportsDayDFW.com

Read all of Bob's posts at this link:
http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/bob-sturm

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Targets - Game 8 - Green Bay

http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/11/bob-sturms-cowboys-target-anal.html

The drop off in QB play is tough to quantify when the rest of the team is falling apart around him, but Jon Kitna is doing about the job you would expect of a backup QB. On Sunday night, he seemed to have great success with Dez Bryant (again) and not much else at the WR position. In fact, both of his Interceptions were intended for Miles Austin, although Austin could hardly be faulted for either one (especially the Clay Matthews INT return for a TD).

Kitna was under extreme pressure and the Offensive Line continues to struggle. Here are the results of the final game of the Wade Phillips era:

Here are the numbers for Game 8:

Target Distribution: - Game 8 at Green Bay
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin62161/0/22.7
Bryant109863/1/0135.8
Witten43442/0/0110.4
Williams4160/0/039.5
Jones1000/0/039.5
Barber0000/0/00
Choice1000/0/039.5
Bennett33202/0/094.4
Gronkowski0000/0/00
Ogletree0000/0/00
Hurd11111/0/0112.5
Totals30191839/1/263.6


3rd Down results are mediocre, but even these numbers are difficult to understand given the time and score of the game when many of them occurred. They all count, but some obviously count more than others. Most of Sunday's offensive stats were essentially put up in garbage time.

3RD/4TH Down Targets - Week 8 at Green Bay
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TDQB Rating
Austin22161/0/0100
Bryant22151/1/0137.5
Jones0000/0/00
Williams1000/0/039.5
Witten11111/0/0112.5
Bennett0000/0/00
Hurd0000/0/00
Barber0000/0/00
Totals65423/1/0135.4


And now, your season in a nutshell - I am tempted to separate Romo vs Kitna at some point this season, because the drop off between the 2 QBs for both Austin and Williams are quite noticeable. Interesting that Dez Bryant hasn't felt the effect of the change as he just keeps producing in that way he produces.

Target Distribution - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin724565729/2/478.3
Witten674550618/3/385.8
Bryant543843417/4/0118.9
Williams412334111/5/392.6
Jones27241585/0/175.6
Barber107280/0/072.9
Choice97322/0/081.4
Bennett25171236/0/245.9
Ogletree1000/0/039.5
Hurd74333/0/069.3
Gronkowski4290/0/056.2
Totals325217234393/15/1386.5


Jason Witten's numbers are starting to normalize overall, but the 3rd Down numbers are not recovering at all. It has been a year where teams are starting to defend him with Linebackers more (slowing a step?) and it seems like he now has to adjust routes accordingly. For the last several years he has been working against safeties more and more. I imagine the offensive scheme is understanding this concept. In November of 2009, the Packers put Charles Woodson on him. In November of 2010, it was much more Brandon Chillar, a LB. Obviously, different routes and concepts would be used in either situation.


3RD/4TH Down Targets - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin211727711/1/0134.6
Bryant20151978/3/0145.2
Williams95834/1/0123.8
Witten1881084/0/324.5
Bennett2270/0/081.3
Choice43191/0/084.4
Jones22100/0/087.5
Barber33220/0/097.2
Hurd32192/0/084.0
Totals805569629/5/3100.8


===========

Bob Sturm is host of BaD Radio on The Ticket 1310 AM Mondays through Fridays at 12-3 p.m. He also hosts The Ticket's Cowboys pregame show. Follow Bob on Twitter at www.twitter.com/bobanddan Bob offers his exclusive analysis after games on SportsDayDFW.com

Read all of Bob's posts at this link:
http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/bob-sturm

Wednesday, November 03, 2010

Targets - Game 7 - Jacksonville

http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/11/bob-sturms-target-analysis-vs-2.html

We did see that Jon Kitna, like his time in Detroit, is capable of finding receivers with a fair amount of regularity. This team in no way, shape, or form, resembled the putrid pass offense of the 2008 stretch when Brad Johnson was running things.

The question, like his time in Detroit, is simple: Is the team around him able to do anything with all of these passing yards? Can the defense mix in the occasional stop and can the offense power home a 3rd and goal and a 4th and goal?

And, most importantly as it pertains to the passing game, can his receivers help his cause or hurt his cause?

I think we can quite fairly suggest that 2 and likely 3 of the 4 interceptions were on the hands of those he was throwing the ball to. For this team to get wins, they have to make plays, not make turnovers.

Here are the numbers for Game 7

Target Distribution: - Game 7 vs Jacksonville
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin1271175/0/156.6
Bryant97843/0/0105.5
Witten1210972/1/0128.8
Williams31211/0/219.4
Jones43140/0/139.5
Barber0000/0/00
Choice44272/0/094.8
Bennett1000/0/039.6
Gronkowski0000/0/00
Ogletree0000/0/00
Hurd42192/0/063.5
Totals493437915/1/464.9


It appears we are seeing one significant uptick in production from Jason Witten. In the last 2 games, Witten has 19 catches on 25 attempts for 192 yards. And we have one significant downtick from Roy Williams. In his last 2 games, he has been targeted 6 times, and he has 1 catch for 21 yards, and 2 Jon Kitna interceptions against Jacksonville were on balls intended for Roy.

3RD/4TH Down Targets - Week 7 vs Jacksonville
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TDQB Rating
Austin43533/0/0116.6
Bryant33542/0/0118.7
Jones1170/0/095.8
Williams0000/0/00
Witten22141/0/095.8
Bennett0000/0/00
Hurd1181/0/0100
Barber0000/0/00
Totals11101327/0/0116.6


3rd Down was very solid. 10-11 and 116 passer rating on 3rd Down shows that Kitna is capable. That is a reason for some optimism if the team around him plays to its ability. 7 conversions shows nice promise, too.

And now, your season in a nutshell:

Target Distribution - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin664364128/2/294.3
Witten634246216/3/380.3
Bryant442934814/3/0112.7
Williams372233511/5/395.2
Jones26241585/0/175.9
Barber107280/0/072.9
Choice87322/0/083.3
Bennett22141034/0/236.7
Ogletree1000/0/00
Hurd63222/0/059.0
Gronkowski4290/0/056.2
Totals295198216084/14/1188.8


It is interesting to look at the passer efficiency rating for the season. Miles Austin has been in a bit of a free fall and is now under 100 for the first time this year. In fact, the only target over 100 for the year is the rookie Dez Bryant who has already shown that he is the real deal and capable of making all of the catches in his young career. Not sure where his production will finish in 2010, but all of the "rookie comparables" look irrelevant with this kid. What a talent.

3RD/4TH Down Targets - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin191526110/1/0136.3
Bryant18131827/2/0141.4
Williams85834/1/0136.9
Witten177973/0/320.6
Bennett2270/0/081.3
Choice43191/0/084.4
Jones22100/0/087.5
Barber33220/0/097.2
Hurd32192/0/084.0
Totals745065426/4/396.3


===========

DB Targets vs Jacksonville

Early in the game, Kitna was going right at Rashean Mathis. Then, in the middle of the game he flipped the side of the field and appeared to be working on Derek Cox. He came back to Mathis late, and Mathis made him pay when he stepped in front of a Roy Williams slant (for interception #4).

Here are the targets that saw at least 2 balls come at them:

Targeted DBTimes
21 - Derek Cox10
27 - Rashean Mathis7
29 - William Middleton2
36 - Courtney Green2



Bob Sturm is host of BaD Radio on The Ticket 1310 AM Mondays through Fridays at 12-3 p.m. He also hosts The Ticket's Cowboys pregame show. Follow Bob on Twitter at www.twitter.com/bobanddan Bob offers his exclusive analysis after games on SportsDayDFW.com

Read all of Bob's posts at this link:
http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/bob-sturm

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Targets - Week 6 - New York

http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/10/bob-sturms-target-analysis-vs-1.html

Here we take a look where Cowboys' Quarterbacks were going with the football on Monday Night. As I mentioned on an earlier entry, I think it will be interesting to see how Jon Kitna throws the ball on Sunday against Jacksonville, because NFL opponents are going to be particularly interested in whether he will throw balls outside the numbers on the field. We see a giant night for Jason Witten against the Giants, and that is all well and good - but if you watch all of Kitna's completions, they were all to the middle of the field. Well, opponents are tracking this and if he cannot complete out routes and comebacks to the sidelines along with the occasional go routes down the sidelines, then the defense will compact the middle of the field and take away what he likes to do. When we say a QB can "make all of the throws" that means a 20 yard pass to the sideline from the middle of the field is merely a flick of the wrist. It is possible that Kitna still has that arm, but at 38, he is going to have to prove it.

And the reason this is so key? Brad Johnson could not make that throw anymore. And the Cowboys offense struggled to get to 14 points with him as a starter. Kitna will surely be able to do more, but he will need to prove it to Jack Del Rio early on Sunday to open things up.

Target Distribution: - Week 6 at New York
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin83392/0/053.6
Bryant74541/2/0121.4
Witten139953/1/0115.8
Williams3000/0/039.5
Jones33262/0/0102.7
Barber1170/0/095.8
Choice0000/0/00
Bennett1160/0/091.6
Gronkowski1000/0/039.5
Ogletree0000/0/00
Hurd3000/0/039.5
Totals40212268/3/094.4


The 3rd and 4th Down performance on Monday was pretty much reduced to 1 positive play - #56 of 56. Without the 4th down Touchdown pass to Dez Bryant, there would be almost nothing but zeros here.

3RD/4TH Down Targets - Week 6 vs New York
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TDQB Rating
Austin3180/0/042.3
Bryant32200/1/0125
Jones0000/0/00
Williams1000/0/039.5
Witten1000/0/039.5
Bennett0000/0/00
Hurd1000/0/039.5
Barber1170/0/095.8
Totals104350/1/083.3


An interesting trend is certainly emerging and quite surprising; Miles Austin started like a man possessed, but has had 2 extremely quiet games in a row and now has the 3rd highest passer rating amongst the WRs. Both Williams and Bryant have had more efficient performances for the season and that is likely a result of teams attempting to make Miles really work to get open in the spots of the field where he can do the most damage. Austin's QB Rating by game: 149.1 (Wash), 69.3 (Chi), 85.4 (Hou), 144.4 (Tenn), 47.9 (Minn), and 53.6 (NYG).

And now, your season in a nutshell:

Target Distribution - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin543652423/2/1102.7
Witten513236514/2/372.7
Bryant352226411/3/0114.5
Williams342131410/5/1119.3
Jones22211445/0/093.9
Barber107280/0/072.9
Choice4350/0/077.1
Bennett21141034/0/238.4
Ogletree1000/0/00
Hurd63222/0/059.0
Gronkowski4290/0/056.2
Totals246164178169/13/793.6


All things considered, the season-to-date work of Tony Romo on 3rd Down is remarkably solid. Expect to see a significant drop now with Kitna/McGee watching the store.

3RD/4TH Down Targets - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin15122087/1/0140.9
Bryant15101285/2/0132.7
Williams85834/1/0136.9
Witten155832/0/313.3
Bennett2270/0/081.3
Choice2170/0/058.3
Jones1130/0/079.2
Barber33220/0/097.2
Hurd21111/0/066.6
Totals634052219/4/390.8


===========

DB Targets vs New York

Tough to see any real patterns here, where we track which DBs the Cowboys were looking to attack. With the chaotic nature of the game, it looked like Thomas was the early target, but as the game went on, it was pretty evenly spread from side to side and DB to DB:

Targeted DBTimes
24 - Terrell Thomas9
23 - Corey Webster6
34 - Deon Grant2
26 - Antrel Rolle2



Bob Sturm is host of BaD Radio on The Ticket 1310 AM Mondays through Fridays at 12-3 p.m. He also hosts The Ticket's Cowboys pregame show. Follow Bob on Twitter at www.twitter.com/bobanddan Bob offers his exclusive analysis after games on SportsDayDFW.com

Read all of Bob's posts at this link:
http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/bob-sturm

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Targets - Week 5 - Minnesota

Target Distribution: - Week 5 at Minnesota
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin52110/0/047.9
Bryant21300/1/0135.4
Witten53522/0/255.8
Williams33361/2/0156.2
Jones1010632/0/092.9
Barber33150/0/087.5
Choice0000/0/00
Bennett1000/0/039.5
Gronkowski3290/0/070.1
Ogletree0000/0/00
Hurd0000/0/00
Totals32242205/3/298.4


Another week where we look at Roy Williams and his production and have nothing to say beyond amazement at his 2010. His numbers compare well with Miles Austin, and if anyone saw that coming this season they might have also expected the Rangers to be one win from the American League Pennant. I am not sure which event was more unlikely back around Easter, but here we are.

Once again, another week where the ability to throw to the Tight End has completely disappears. It is so very shocking to see this staple of Dallas Cowboys offense completely disappear.

3RD/4TH Down Targets - Week 5 at Minnesota
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TDQB Rating
Austin22110/0/047.9
Bryant21300/1/0135.4
Jones0000/0/00
Williams11150/1/0158.3
Witten31171/0/213.8
Bennett0000/0/00
Hurd0000/0/00
Barber22150/0/097.9
Totals107881/2/297.1


Perhaps the trend that is most alarming is this: the Cowboys only threw to their WRs out of complete necessity. Almost every single completion to Bryant, Williams, and Austin was on 3rd Down. On early downs, there appears to be no reason to cover the Cowboys WR group. To call the Cowboys game-plan conservative and careful would be a bit of an understatement.

And now, your season in a nutshell:

Target Distribution - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin463348521/2/1111.2
Bryant281821010/1/098.8
Witten382327011/1/358.0
Williams312131410/5/1126.9
Jones19181183/0/092.5
Barber96210/0/070.1
Choice4350/0/077.1
Bennett2013974/0/236.9
Ogletree1000/0/00
Hurd33222/0/097.2
Gronkowski3290/0/070.1
Totals206143155561/10/793.4


For the season, the two lowest rated targets for Romo are his tight ends - Jason Witten and Martellus Bennett. Of the 7 interceptions that Romo has thrown, 5 are to Witten and Bennett. We all have theories on why this is, but isn't it somewhat shocking? It should be a rather high percentage throw to the TE given that many of their routes are hardly to be considered "downfield".

3RD/4TH Down Targets - Season To Date
NameTargetsCatchesYardsFD/TD/INTQB Rating
Austin12112007/1/0146.5
Bryant1281085/1/0122.9
Williams75834/1/0150.6
Witten145832/0/38.6
Bennett2270/0/081.3
Choice2170/0/058.3
Jones1130/0/079.2
Barber22150/0/097.9
Hurd11111/0/0112.5
Totals533648719/3/392.3


And once again I shall repeat: No, that is not a misprint under QB Rating to Jason Witten. It really is "8.6".

===========

DB Targets vs Minnesota

This may drive you crazier than anything from this game; the fact that the Vikings secondary - which is largely undermanned - was never challenged. I can only find 8 passes the entire game where you could actually make the case they were looking at a defensive back to attack. There was not an attack in the Cowboys game plan it would appear.

Targeted DBTimes
29 - Lito Sheppard3
21 - Asher Allen3
26 - Antoine Winfield2


.