The Morning After: Cowboys 31, Buccaneers 15 (8-6)

"Don't ever let the facts spoil a good story" - Mark Twain

Why Mr. Twain originally offered that quote is up for debate, but the 2011 application of it seems to apply to the 2011 Dallas Cowboys story. Here are learned, wise NFL pundits talking each week about the Dallas Cowboys. And they go on and on discussing the inability of the Cowboys to take a season by the scruff of the neck before each Cowboys' game. They look carefully at all of the information in front of them, cross reference it with all of their personal experience in the game which is often plentiful and extensive, and then flush it right down the toilet.

Because, when one is predisposed to an opinion, there is often no amount of evidence that will turn their opinion short of being smacked in the face. Then, and only then, will they concede that maybe they were barking up the wrong tree.

And they arrive at a familiar destination.

Tony Romo.

Yes, the Cowboys QB is the topic of conversation. Why he can't make the big plays at the big moment. Why he has a December record that is unacceptable. Why he is not in the top class and why his coach doesn't trust him. And then, they start the game, the pregame show guys all put their feet up on the desk and congratulate each-other on a perfect show, and they start to watch a player who they have barbecued play.

All Tony Romo does is go out and play top level football from the QB position. Some weeks it is enough to win, other weeks the Cowboys waste a fabulous performance from their QB because something else on the team broke down. But, despite his performance, the narratives are already written. The dye has been cast. Romo is their target. Facts be damned.

Such was the case on Saturday Night, as before the game and after the game, the NFL Network demonstrated to us that this team is all about its QB. They link postseason failures and blown 4th Quarter leads to Romo. For it was Romo who lost 34-3 to the Vikings in 2009. And it was Romo who lost every single game he ever played that mattered. Because obviously the many he has won don't matter.

Against Tampa Bay, the Cowboys received a 4 Touchdown performance from Romo in the 1st half. You can make a real case that none of his 3 TD passes were a result of the called play. Instead, the improvisational skills of a player who has never been more locked in was on full display. Unlike the games against the Redskins and Dolphins where he made sensational improv plays rolling to his left, this time, the QB who takes as much ridicule as any QB in the game, rolled to his right for TD passes to all 3 of his WRs. It was truly remarkable stuff.

The Cowboys converted 3rd Down after 3rd Down. They went for the knock out early for a Tampa Bay team that has very little in the categories of talent or resolve, and Dallas found it quite easily because of their gigantic edge at the most important position on the field.

But this isn't about 1 game against a bad team in December. This is about a season that is the best of his career. And whether the critics care to acknowledge it or not, his career has numbers that can certainly rival just about anyone he ever plays against.

This isn't to say that Romo is perfect. Obviously, there are real issues with a QB who has never advanced his team in the playoffs past the Round of 8. That will have to change for his reputation to ever truly emerge on the other side. And Donovan McNabb is fine example of a QB who won tons of games, plenty of playoff games, but never emerged as a champion and therefore will never be placed in the group of top QBs in his generation.

But, I seldom remember McNabb being the week-in, week-out target of discussion on every network roundtable about "what is wrong with that team". Do they discuss the issues on the defense? Seldom. Do they look at the under-whelming offensive line? Almost never. Instead, it is back to Romo.

What can he do to change this? If you say that the answer is to just go play well, you should consider the following:

In 2011, coming off an injury that knocked him out of the final 10 games in 2010, Romo is playing at his best level. His QB rating is 102.6, which is significantly higher than ever before. On the other hand, he has never had a rating below 90, so his performance speaks for itself. His career record is now 47-28, so he wins plenty, and for his career, he averages a 10-6 record.

Admittedly, a combination of rust and broken ribs helped Romo get off to a tough start in '11, and that was never more obvious in his meltdown performance in Week 4 against Detroit. 3 deadly interceptions set the football world into a feeding frenzy and it was well deserved. But, it would seem that a game played on October 2 is still the source for just about every talking head in the league. It obviously isn't his play since then.

In the 10 games since Oct 2, the Cowboys are 6-4, but the QB play has been nearly spotless. How good? Well, his 22 Touchdowns and 4 Interceptions trail Aaron Rodgers (28 TDs, 4 INTs) and Drew Brees (27 TDs, 7 INTs). That is it. Given that those are widely held as 2 of the top 3 QBs in the sport, I would say for Rodgers, Brees, and Brady (22 TDs, 6 INTs) to be canonized each week and for Romo to have his job questioned just shows the silliness of pregame shows and sports talk radio in general.

Yes, Rodgers, Brees, and Brady have Super Bowl Rings. Of course they do. But, any guy in a sports bar can tell you that fact. He can tick down a list of guys with rings and say they are good and everyone else is lousy. But, I would expect top analysts to bring a little more information to the table than a guy in a jersey sitting in the booth over.

With the Cowboys 4 losses since Detroit, 3 times, Romo had the team in a position to win the game when he left the field (or in the New York game, at least get to OT). Against New England, the defense didn't have another stand in them. Against the Cardinals, the Field Goal incident happened. And against the Giants, Austin lost the ball in the lights and then Jason Pierre Paul blocked a FG.

But, if you go snap by snap and game by game, the Cowboys get a top grade at the QB position nearly ever week. His 107.1 rating since week 4 demonstrates that they are getting elite QB play despite inconsistent running and a very uneven performances from the offensive line.

And yet, the December record gets attached to Romo. His team has a poor record in December, and therefore it is obviously his fault, right? Well, in his last 7 December games, he has 15 TDs and 1 INT. Surely other QBs could do better, right?

It must be great to play for the Cowboys if you aren't Tony Romo or the coach (whoever that is at a given time). If the defense can't get a stop, the talking heads will jump Romo. If the line can't block, it is clearly Romo's fault. If a player drops a pass or misses a kick, the guys back at the studio in New York or Los Angeles will dust off their Romo rants. It speaks to his mental makeup that this reality never crushes his spirit.

We live in a city where a certain basketball star lived under the same scrutiny until June 2011. He was blamed for things that were his fault and things that weren't his fault. It was too easy just to say the same things about him rather than actually investigate why his team couldn't win it all.

And that is why on October 3, the day after the Detroit meltdown, Dirk Nowitzki felt for Romo and sent this missive out on Twitter: "Dear tony romo. Don't worry abt all the critics. I heard that same garbage for a long time. Keep working hard and keep improving."

Keep working hard and keep improving. Well, it appears that Romo took that advice to heart. He has played so well since that day. But, the Cowboys have weaknesses on this team that are clearly not overcome every week with elite QB play. Sometimes, he can pull them out of the fire (at Washington, Miami) and some weeks he cannot (at Arizona, New York).

After Saturday night's monster performance, Romo sat there as the NFL Network talked to him in that condescending way about accountability and whether winning matters. He took it as he always does with his guarded responses and his smiles. He then played along as Deion Sanders promised to wear Romo's jersey despite being a Romo critic if the Cowboys get to the NFC title game. Surely, Romo will find inspiration to know that Deion would actually give him credit if he made it in January.

Romo knows as anyone who follows this team knows as well; if the Cowboys don't win it all with Romo at QB, it will be his fault.

Even when it isn't.

Where (Ware) are the Sacks?

The Cowboys defense has been heavy under the microscope this week after surrendering 400 yards passing, 510 yards in total offense, and 37 points in the home loss to the Giants on the weekend. Rob Ryan's credentials have been examined closer and the defense in general has been targeted for ridicule for their inability to come close to sacking Eli Manning.

The best way to stop an aerial show in the NFL is to apply pressure to the QB. When you cannot get to him in a reasonable amount of time, he is able to then get comfortable, go through his read progressions, and then make an easy throw to his intended target. The QBs at this level are too good to allow that to happen. Yet, again, the Cowboys did just that.

So, over the last several days, I have been asked to break down the pass rush of the Cowboys by the numbers and attempt to figure out how the Giants are doing this, and who on the Cowboys we should be asking much more of.

First, I believe it should all be heading of how good Eli Manning played in this game from an intelligence standpoint. His ability and maturity as a QB has really progressed over the last few seasons, and as critical as I have been of him over the years, I leave this evaluation very impressed by Manning. Rob Ryan threw a ton of things in his direction and was unable to rattle him. In 2008, Eli Manning was sacked 8 times in his final visit to Texas Stadium (the biggest sack performance by a Cowboys defense since 1997) and looked very poor. Since then, he has played 3 games at Dallas and has been sacked once. And I submit that much of it is due to the QB learning how to slow down a pass rush by making sound decisions and getting the ball out quickly. His older brother has been a master of this art for more than a decade, and now it appears Eli is figuring it out, too.

Keep in mind that the Giants had David Diehl (LG) playing Left Tackle against DeMarcus Ware. This was supposed to be a field day for Ware, and it never materialized. It has been suggested in the media that the Cowboys had Ware double-teamed every down. I went back and tried to verify that theory, and here is what I found:

DeMarcus Ware Against New York - 33 pass rush situations:

Lined Up	Single Team	Sacks-Pressure	Double Team	Sacks-Pressure
RT	6	0-2	7	0-1
LT	15	0-2	5	0-0

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As you can see, Ware had 33 chances to get after Eli Manning and ended up with 5 pressures, 0 QB hits, and 0 sacks. How did the Giants do that with David Diehl? Click here to see Ware's 5 pressures.



If you go back and look at those situations where Ware and Diehl squared off, there were almost no occasions when Eli Manning held the ball for any period of time. The ball was out on 3-step drops on quick outs to his WRs or dump downs to a TE. They were not crazy enough to ask Diehl to hold his ground against Ware except on rare occasions. And each of those rare occasions included Eli looking out of the corner of his eye and ready to get rid of the ball.

Then, the Cowboys tried to flip him to the right against the equally underwhelming Kareem McKenzie. McKenzie has been their full-time Right Tackle and ProFootballFocus.com rates him as the 66th tackle in the NFL this year. And yet, the Cowboys were unable to get there on him, either.

Ware did slightly better against McKenzie, but the Giants were very quick to send double teams if they knew they had a pass on that would require any amount of protection.

Here is how Rob Ryan deployed pass rushers, separated by down:

Pass Rushers Against New York - 50 pass rush situations:

Pass Rushers	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
3	6	5	1	0	12
4	6	4	5	0	15
5	7	4	4	1	16
6	2	1	3	0	6
7	0	0	1	0	1

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Eli threw 47 passes (and 3 more passes where penalties rendered it "no play) and the Cowboys tried many different ideas. Ryan would try to bring 5, 6, and even 7 and his guys couldn't get home. On 10 occasions, Ryan sent defensive backs. Still no sacks.
And even worse, no real hits on Manning. He was comfortable and the Cowboys couldn't change that comfort no matter what they tried.

There has been plenty said about the Cowboys defense and the deployment of the 11. Still more is bothersome about the apparent confusion on assignments and timeouts are wasted. At this point of the season, there is no question things should be more seamless, however, on the issue of pass rush, I fear that the strategy is not the problem.

When you have a coordinator who is varying his approach, by trying every conceivable idea in every possible scenario, then you are left to wonder about the quality of the players involved. With Ware, you have true quality. His credentials are flawless and his production is off the charts, by any standard. But, it appears he is hurt and the season has taken its toll. He had 12 sacks after 7 games but just 3 sacks in the last 6.

Additionally, if you are the Giants, you will spend all week figuring out how to handle Ware in each and every scenario. It is certainly way easier said than done, but they executed it flawlessly and then were aided with Ware missing 18 of the final 24 snaps. On 2 of the 6 he was back, he committed crucial penalties trying to cheat the snap count.

But, what of the rest of those Dallas defenders? Anthony Spencer was largely facing single-teams (as is often the case) and he couldn't get home. In fact, Victor Butler had one of the two QB hits (Barry Church) in his spells for Ware late in the game. The defensive ends rushed 68 times and never touched the QB once. Jay Ratliff makes plays every game, but interior pass rush is merely a bonus to his arsenal until the Cowboys move him outside (which doesn't appear to be an option on a defense without a true nose tackle).

Bottom line seems to be this: We can continue to blame Rob Ryan for getting the scheme wrong and wonder why DeMarcus Ware doesn't have 4 sacks a game, but the truth is that Ryan tried everything and the Giants only objective is to stop Ware. The Giants gambled that nobody else would bother Eli Manning on the Cowboys defensive front and they were quite right. The Tyron Smith pick was a marvelous one that addressed a real need on the offensive line, but passing on elite rookie defensive ends like JJ Watt really hurt after games like this one. If only the Cowboys had 2 picks at #9.

This is not to say that Rob Ryan is flawless or that Ware does need to get home regardless of what the Giants do. But the truth seems that the Cowboys have many holes on this roster that scheme can only cover up on certain occasions. They lack difference makers that defy Xs and Os, and until they improve that number of difference makers, we might continue to blame the coordinator for not "coaching them up".

This lack of pass rush seems to be a simple matter of the Cowboys needing to improve the pieces on their defense. Many suggested that last summer, but Dallas thought they could get away with some cheap fixes. And now, they see why that might not have been a great decision.

Decoding Garrett - Week 13 - Data - NY Giants

This loss is going to hurt for a while. And it starts with the dynamic performance from the offense. You seldom lose games where you have 3 different drives that go 80 yards and score touchdowns each time. Also, you seldom lose when your offense converts on 50% of the 3rd Down opportunities. That 50% (5-10) was the 2nd best game all season in that category, trailing only the spectacular performance against Buffalo.

And you seldom lose when you roll up 445 yards. The Cowboys average 390 yards per game offensively, but usually when they are above 430, they are very tough to beat. San Francisco (473), Detroit (433), St Louis (441), Seattle (442), Buffalo (439), and now, New York (445) all fall in that category. Only the Detroit and New York games were losses, and I think most would agree that the Cowboys played well enough to win those two games. In the case of the Detroit game, they at least could blame turnovers as the difference. But, this contest only featured 1 Cowboys' turnovers, and the teams were even.

When analyzing simply the offense, it is very hard to pick on their performance on Sunday. They put up huge numbers and a huge point total and from an offensive standpoint, that should absolutely be enough to win the game.

Here is a number that might make you sick: Since 1998, the Cowboys have lost only 2 games in which they have scored 34 points. This one, and last year's home game against the New York Giants. That game was lost 41-35, as the Cowboys could not slow down Eli Manning in Arlington. Sound familiar? Sunday, the score was 37-34, and the Cowboys lost again in Arlington to Eli Manning.

Here is another number that might make you equally sick: December 3, 1989, was the last time a Cowboys QB threw for 4 Touchdowns and lost a game. That day, rookie QB Troy Aikman threw for 4 TDs in a 35-31 loss to Jim Everett and the Los Angeles Rams. All time, the Cowboys are 25-6 in those cases. It was Romo's 6th 4 Touchdown game and he had won the first 5.

It appears, from a purely offensive standpoint, that the team has to be prepared to score nearly every possession when they play the Giants. And they did a near-fabulous job. But, they left points on the field in the 4th Quarter with the miss to Austin on 3rd Down and the blocked Field Goal. And as crazy as it seems, that was enough to take the loss. There was almost no margin for error for the offense on Sunday night because the defense was so bad.

It was the 14th time in Dallas Cowboys history they had conceded 500 yards (510) in total offense to their opponent. They have won just 3 of those games.

The Cowboys finally had their full arsenal of weapons present with Miles Austin back into the mix, and the Cowboys looked like a very powerful offense. In fact, their average yards to go on 3rd Down was 2nd best all season long (5.2) to the Seattle game. They still clearly didn't believe in their offensive line holding off the Giants front, but I would not debit Garrett on that. I would say if there is any offensive line in which you better be careful about, it would be the one that knocked your QB out for the season last time they visited. Quick passes, short drops, and don't ask your OL or QB to hold the fort longer than they are capable.

The full arsenal was short-lived as DeMarco Murray was lost for the year, which should trouble just about everyone around this organization. It will be tempting for Garrett to fall back into a majority of "shotgun" snaps with Felix since that seems to be where Jones is more comfortable rather than the under center "21" or "22" runs with a FB. One could certainly imagine the Cowboys not using Fiammetta much with Jones moving forward, based on Felix's extremely short resume of FB success.

Meanwhile, Phil Costa made it 26 snaps before suffering a concussion. Kevin Kowalski replaced him for the final 33 plays and did an admirable job. Again, Garrett was smart not to ask the offense to do too much on a play by play basis.

In summary, some solid results and the offense can take some solace in some great raw numbers. However, there will be enough gnashing of teeth about the missed opportunity to ice the game on the 3rd Down pass to Miles that would have iced the game.

There is only one statistic that matters.

Data from Week 13 vs Giants

Run-Pass	24-35
1st Down Run-Pass	12-18
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.78
2nd Down Run-Pass	10-9
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	5.20
3rd Down Run-Pass	2-8
3rd Down Conversions	5-10, 50%

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Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan.

Notice, again, the trend of believing in the run game. It happens more at home than on the road. It happens early in games more than late. In order to get run game production, you have to give it a chance. And Sunday, they let it breathe a bit and got some decent results. But, with Murray getting hurt, time will tell if they believe in it down the stretch - starting on the road in Tampa Bay.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass
Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass
Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass
Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 9-Buffalo - 10 Drives - 7 Run/3 Pass
Wk 10-At Washington - 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 11-Miami - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 12-At Arizona - 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 13-New York - 12 Drives - 7 Run/5 Pass
Total: 148 Drives - 65 Run/83 Pass 44% Run


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.


Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	0	0	0-0	0-0
12	13	95	8-64	5-31
13	0	0	0-0	0-0
21	13	46	9-39	4-7
22	5	19	4-10	1-9
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S02	6	74	0-0	6-74
S11	22	211	3-26	19-185
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0
Knee	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	59	445	24-139	35-306

Table Tutorial

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	1	3	1-3	0-0	1/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S02	2	70	0-0	2-70	1/0
S11	7	33	1-12	6-31	3/0
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	10	116	2-15	8-101	5/0

Table Tutorial

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

On Sunday Night, we see that the Cowboys went to the shotgun quite a bit again. In fact, percentage wise, 48.3% of the time, the Cowboys were in shotgun. Only the San Francisco game had more shotgun - 48.4% - and you will recall that the Cowboys went to straight shotgun once they fell behind in that game. These numbers are somewhat skewed as Dallas found itself in 2-minute drill in both halves.

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66
Wk 2 - SF: 32/66
Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62
Wk 4 - Det: 29/75
Wk 5 - NE 31/67
Wk 6 - StL 10/60
Wk 7 - Phi 39/49
Wk 8 - Sea 19/59
Wk 9 - Buf 15/61
Wk 10-Was 24/73
Wk 11-Mia 25/58
Wk 12-Arz 29/67
Wk 13-NYG 28/58

Total - 332/820 40.4%


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Tomorrow, we shall focus on the snap-by-snap deployment of DeMarcus Ware to try to get answers on why Eli Manning was barely touched in his performance.

And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

The Morning After: Giants 37, Cowboys 34 (7-6)

It is certainly difficult to define what constitutes a "good defense" in today's NFL. The days of domination from the defensive side of the ball seem almost theoretical and nostalgic in many regards. The Steel Curtain? Doomsday? Most defenses in this league now routinely surrender 4 Touchdowns in a big game and we just accept that the new rules and the evolution of football dictate that you never shut down offenses anymore - you just try to get a key stop at a key moment.

So, against that backdrop, we examine the post-Wade Phillips defensive era and attempt to provide some context to a Cowboys defense that never excites the fans and media like the torching of Tony Romo and Jason Garrett, but it may provide a little more substance than those exercises anyway.

A fascinating number started circulating last night after the Cowboys gutting 37-34 defeat at the hands of the Giants that provided some insight about how the Cowboys continue to lose games that are in their grasp at the moment of truth. Now that Garrett is 12-9 as coach of the Cowboys, it is interesting to note that 8 of the 9 defeats featured a Dallas 4th Quarter lead (only the Sunday night loss in Philadelphia did not). Many of them, including last night's affair were of the double-digit variety (NYJ, Det, NYG) and all of them threaten to derail the playoff train here in 2011.

Last night's 4th Quarter lead was maximized when Sean Lee picked off a pass and 2 plays later Romo hits a wide-open Dez Bryant from midfield and the Cowboys appeared to have sealed a huge divisional battle with a 34-22 lead with less than 6 minutes to go in the game.

The only way the Cowboys lose the game from there is if they allow 2 Touchdowns on 2 drives and score nothing on their 2 remaining drives to end the game. And, in that exercise, they sadly went 4-4.

Eli Manning, the subject of countless debates and a fair amount of ridicule, absolutely owns this stadium. In 3 trips in, he has left with 3 wins - all requiring his passing to be excellent, and he answered the bell all 3 times. 77-120, 1036 yards and 8 TDs in only 3 trips! If anyone deserves to sign the wall at Cowboys Stadium, it would be Eli. His passer rating of 99.9 in this stadium is enough to concede that he is plenty good to deal with this particular defense regardless of how he does the other weeks of the year. And the most stunning statistic on his ledger? In those 3 trips to the new stadium in Arlington, Eli Manning has been sacked 1 time. Once. DeMarcus Ware got him in 2010. Otherwise, the other 120 times he dropped back to pass, he did so without a whole lot of resistance from the Cowboys pass rush. Being sacked once every 121 pass attempts is certainly not going to get it done.

Down 12, Manning drove his team right down the field. Rob Ryan would rush as few as 3 defenders or as many as 7. Manning seemed fine with either option as he would either enjoy all day to throw or find tasty coverage opportunities down the field. He was impossible to rattle, yet again. And cashed in on a 3rd and 1 when the Cowboys sent 7 as he lofted a pass to Victor Cruz for 23 yards down the right side. Later, the Cowboys sent just 4 and he fired a rocket to Hakeem Nicks for 24 yards down to the 8 yard line. 2 plays later, against a 3 man rush, Manning finds his tight end posting up Sean Lee for a TD and the lead is now 34-29 with a bit over 3 minutes to play.

Now, the Cowboys take the ball at their own 20 yard line and are a play or two away from making sure the Giants never see the ball again. 3rd and 5 from the 25 yard line with 2:25 to play and the Giants only having one timeout left is the game that will properly receive massive amounts of discussion this week. The Cowboys need one play to likely salt away the contest. And Perry Fewell, the Giants defensive coordinator, decides to send everyone. It is a "Cover 0" blitz which is the riskiest coverage in football, and the Cowboys get an opportunity to show why as Miles Austin runs right by Aaron Ross and has a substantial gap with nothing between him and the endzone. Unfortunately, between Romo's throw which was a tad long and Austin's admission that he lost the ball in the lights, the ball falls incomplete, the clock stops, and the punt team comes on to the field. It was simply a play that has to be converted, and if it is, the division title is quite possibly presented to the Cowboys right then and there. It was not, and now the onus will fall on the defense to preserve a 5-point lead with only one chance left for the Giants.

After a poor punt from Mat McBriar, the Cowboys had to protect 58 yards. A field goal would not hurt them, and they simply had to keep the Giants out of the endzone. Again, it is unfortunate to mix a poor pass rush with poor pass coverage, but the Cowboys seemed to have no ability to get a stop.

First, an easy dump down to Jake Ballard turns into a 22-yard gain as Anthony Spencer is trailing the undrafted Tight End down the field. Then, on the 1st play inside the 2-minute warning, an errant snap and a huge loss for New York is nullified as Ware is offsides at exactly the wrong time and for the second time in as many drives. A 2nd and long turns into a 1st and 5. 9 yards to Victor Cruz moves the chains again to at the Dallas 24. On the very next play, a 3 man rush leaves Eli to pick his spot and he drops a beautiful pass into the endzone on Mario Manningham's hands. Manningham had run by Terence Newman and was open for the go-ahead touchdown, but the pass fell off his hands. A drop gave the Cowboys a reprieve.

Trouble was, it was a short-lived reprieve. A near sack is taken off the board because of a defensive holding play. With 1:21 to play, again, the Cowboys cannot cover Ballard as they rush 2 (it appeared Spencer was not aware of his assignment as he covered the same RB (Bradshaw) out of the backfield that Sean Lee was already on) and Manning finds Ballard down to the 1-yard line as he eludes Danny McCray. Two snaps later, Brandon Jacobs is celebrating yet again, a 2-pt conversion is also good, and with :46 left, the Giants take a 37-34 lead.

No timeouts, 80 yards to go, and the Cowboys only had :46 to play. Romo and Miles Austin practically get it all back in 2 plays and have the team down to the Giants 29 yard line with 6 ticks left on the clock. And when Dan Bailey attempts the game-tying kick, Jason Pierre Paul does what he has done all night - dominates the play and blocks the kick. Game Over. Giants win.

A series of unfortunate events again conspire to give the Cowboys another gutting loss. In their 1st 50 years of football, the Cowboys had lost 11 point+ 4th Quarter leads just twice (Nov 28, 1965 at Washington and Oct 23, 1988 at Philadelphia). Then, in 2011, they have done it 3 times. Remarkable and maddening altogether. They are surrendering big leads and doing it quite often when the opponent has to go a long way to get to the end zone.

Very few timely sacks and too many confused and over-run coverage situations. Sometimes, it is Tom Brady or Eli Manning. Other times it has been Rex Grossman and Kevin Kolb who have done the deed late in the game against the Cowboys. They cannot seem to get there without a blitz, and when they do blitz, their coverage is hopelessly compromised.

It would be impossible to find a sole offender for this loss. As is often the case, it is a total team effort that wins and loses in the NFL. Coaches and players all share in the spoils. And again, in a home game against their hated rivals, the Cowboys played well enough to win, but leave with a loss due to too many mistakes at high leverage moments.

It is an episode we are all getting used to seeing in the new stadium. And now, they are backed up against the wall yet again.

A First For Garrett

Let's cover three different Cowboys issues this morning:

The Cowboys are preparing for a massive showdown with the New York Giants on Sunday night, and even though the implications of the result speak for themselves, the details of this series are worth visiting.

In the first meeting between these two teams in 2006, Tony Romo was substituted into the game at halftime of a Monday Night affair. Thus started the "Romo Era" and ended the career of Drew Bledsoe starting in the NFL.

Since that night, the teams have met 10 times in the regular season (there was also that 1 playoff meeting in 2007) and the series is locked at 5-5. Points in those 10 meetings are also as tight as can be, with the Giants holding a 279-278 advantage. Only once in those 10 games has each offense scored less than 20 points. The Giants were held to 8 in their last visit to Texas Stadium in December of 2008, and the Cowboys scored just 14 when Brooks Bollinger subbed in for Brad Johnson in a forgettable day in November 2008 - a day best remembered for Mike Jenkins bailing out on a tackle against Derrick Ward.

Beyond that, it has been well documented that the offenses control this series. In his only two visits to Cowboys Stadium, Eli Manning has carved up the Cowboys with great ease, throwing for 6 TDs, 636 yards, and 2 wins. Orlando Scandrick, in particular, has been victimized over and over again by Eli and the slot receivers for the Giants in these two meetings. In 2009, they threw at Scandrick 13 times, completing 10 passes for 144 yards. Then, in 2010, Eli went after the outside corners of Dallas in their trip here (which cost the Cowboys Romo for the rest of the season) throwing at Newman 11 times (7 completions for 106 yards) and Jenkins 9 times (7 completions for 92 yards) according to our friends at ProFootballFocus.com.

There are countless objectives to beating the Giants on Sunday, but the emphasis to beating the Giants needs to be on slowing down the Giants passing attack which seems tailor-made for attacking Wade Phillips' defense. Now, Rob Ryan is on the main stage and we will see what he tries to do with timely blitzing. One great item to note is that Steve Smith is no longer on the Giants roster. In 3 starts against the Cowboys in the last 2 seasons, Smith has been targeted 37 times by Eli Manning for 25 catches. 345 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 15 1st Downs demonstrates what a handful he has been running the slot for the Giants. But, that now is left to others, and I am guessing that starting with Scandrick, the Cowboys are quite fine with that.

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There could be a "first" accomplished on Sunday for Jason Garrett and his offense. This could be the first time that he has a full compliment of his weapons on the field for an entire game (assuming that everyone can make it through without injury).

Think about that. We aren't talking about losing a LB or a guard. We are talking about having all of your skill players available for 1 complete game. Other teams deal with injuries, too, but it sure seems that the Cowboys have had a heck of a time just getting to explore what a fully operational arsenal could present to opponents. 20 games as head coach of the Cowboys, and he has enjoyed exactly 0 with his starting QB, RB, TE, and top 3 WRs at the same time. Here is the list of those 20 games and details about who was present:


2010

Wk 9 - NYG - No Romo
Wk 10 - Det - No Romo
Wk 11 - NO - No Romo, Lost Barber
Wk 12 - IND - No Romo, No Barber, Lost Dez
Wk 13 - Phil - No Romo, No Dez, No Barber, Lost Roy Williams
Wk 14 - Wash - No Romo, No Dez, No Barber, No Williams
Wk 15 - Arz - No Romo, No Dez
Wk 16 - Phil - No Romo, No Dez

2011

Wk 1 - NYJ - All Present (Dez injured early), No Robinson (DNP)
Wk 2 - SF - No Dez, Romo left game, Austin hurt, No Robinson (DNP)
Wk 3 - Wash - No Austin
Wk 4 - Det - No Austin
Wk 5 - NE - All Present (Felix leaves game with injury)
Wk 6 - STL - No Felix
Wk 7 - Phil - No Felix
Wk 8 - Sea - No Felix, Austin hurt
Wk 9 - Buf - No Felix, No Austin
Wk 10 - Was - No Austin
Wk 11 - Mia - No Austin
Wk 12 - Arz - No Austin

It goes without saying that during the "No Felix" period, the Cowboys discovered they actually had a better RB behind him in DeMarco Murray, but that doesn't mean that they couldn't use the dynamic play making ability of Felix. Now, with 3 competent WRs, 2 explosive RBs, Witten and Romo all present together, the onus will be on the offense to make this opportunity count.

It sounds like excuses to blame the lack of production on a few selected injuries, but at some point, you have to recognize that Jon Kitna, Jesse Holley, and Kevin Ogletree are not capable of things that Romo, Dez, and Miles are. Simple facts of pro football.

Maybe, just maybe, one of the reasons the offense has not been as explosive as it appears it should be on paper is that they just can't ever run the offense that they thought they were going to be able to run all offseason long.

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Finally, here is last week's Romo passing chart. Blue is for completions, Red is for incompletions, Yellow is the TD to Dez.



I think it demonstrates again that there was not much explosiveness down the field at all. Patrick Peterson did a nice job on Dez Bryant down the field and broke up a few deep shots. Otherwise, we see yet again that when the Cowboys "go conservative", it is usually with quick passes to the edge and a hope that the receiver can break a play. When that play never really materializes, the Cowboys must string together plenty of long drives that can easily be derailed by a penalty, sack, or other negative play. And there were plenty of sacks to stop drives on Sunday.

X's and O's Breakdown - The OT Screen

In the words of the late, great Michael Hutchence, "Sometimes you kick, sometimes you get kicked."

Blitzing, and more specifically, fire zone blitzing is a staple of the Rob Ryan defense. We have discussed this at some length in past entries, but usually it is when it works to perfection - such as the study we did when he had Buffalo all confused a few weeks ago.

But, of course, sometimes when you blitz, the other team has figured you out from their film study or they just lucked into a perfect call at a perfect moment. Regardless of how the Cardinals walked the Cowboys right into a trap on the final play of Sunday's game, the truth is on the film for all to see.

Larod Stephens-Howling is known as the "hyphen" in Arizona, and surely is one of those water-bug types that if they can get into the open field, the opponent is going to have a hard time containing him and bringing him down. Another note worth considering is that the Cardinals have a notoriously difficult time executing screen plays. Perhaps that is why the Cowboys felt that this was not going to be a major issue entering the action on Sunday.

The Cardinals are on the 1st Drive of OT, and are facing a 1st and 15 after a penalty. The Cowboys scheme for fire zones vary, but just know that it means the Cowboys are overloading their blitz to one side of the field, while the weakside edge LB will drop into a zone instead of rushing. In this case, that LB is DeMarcus Ware, and the normal genius of such a concept is that the opponent has 2 guys assigned to block #94. So, the premise is simple: Blitz more guys from one side than can be blocked, and rush almost nobody from the other-side which leaves the LT and sometimes LG just standing there with nobody to block.

From the Cardinals standpoint, if they can somehow have a play on that attacks the blitz side, it can go for miles (which it did). If they call the screen to the opposite side, Ware will be standing there and ready to devour the play as he will be unblocked.

Look at the diagram of how the Cowboys defense is to deploy in this situation:



And here is how it looked in presnap from the same view from the coaches film:



The Cowboys are trying to drop 2 LBs (94 and 56) into the shallow zones on either side. Of course, Bradie James is highlighted in green on the diagram (and is standing on the Cardinals logo on the film) because it is rather clear that he busts on this play and gets "caught up in the wash" as he tries to get out wide to the side that the play is about to go. Let's credit #70-Rex Hadnot for getting a very impressive hold on James that keeps Bradie from getting to where he is supposed to go on this play. Also, we should perhaps blame Bradie for attempting to get too cute as he tries to give the impression that he is blitzing for a split second too long. The concept is for Bradie to occupy a blocker with his first step or two, but he has to bail before anyone can get their mitts on him because he has that entire half of the field on the defensive left. It is going to be a long run with no contact, but once Hadnot touches him, this play is doomed. With Sensabaugh and Newman in man coverage, they will have their backs to the play for most of the play, so this is Bradie's play or likely nobody.

We can certainly question the Cowboys thinking their slowest LB could beat the "hyphen" to the edge, but they tried it and the picture below will attest to the fact that the result was ugly:



Sean Lee is a very fast inside LB, but at 4.6, he is no match for a 4.35 guy like Stephens-Howling. Lee diagnoses the play and peels off as fast as he can (and is actually quicker to get there than James), but he will not be able to run him down from behind.

The Cardinals do not even attempt to block Anthony Spencer which is either a horrible decision if Spencer can grab Kevin Kolb or a brilliant one if Kolb can slip past 93 long enough to dump the ball off to hyphen in space. It works like a charm. This demonstrates why mobility for a QB has almost nothing to do with "straight-line" speed and more to do with understanding how a side step can buy you another few tenths of a second.

From the time of the catch, the play is doomed. The Cowboys only real hope is that Terence Newman can get around Andre Roberts to bring down Stephens-Howling near the 45. Once Newman is dealt with quite easily, it becomes a comedy of missed tackles and less-than-inspired efforts to bring him down inside the 20 which speaks to the knowledge that the game is already lost once the play goes deep inside FG range.

Is it a horrible call from Rob Ryan? This is the nature of all of football. Call a blitz on 1st Down when few would expect it is a great idea when it works (a sack is a drive ender if the Cardinals are looking at a 2nd and 22)- and a horrible plan when it fails. Asking Bradie James to get to the flank in time against Stephens-Howling sounds like a very poor plan, unless you are playing the odds that the Cardinals hadn't used him hardly all day long. One does wonder how a speedy inside LB like Bruce Carter would do in the same situation, but that clearly isn't close to happening as Carter has not exactly forced his way onto the field yet (11 snaps against Seattle, 13 against Buffalo, 0 at Washington, 0 vs Miami, 0 at Arizona).

So, perfect call against your blitz or reckless play call from Rob Ryan? It is a results-based business, so in this case, Ryan was caught with his hand in the cookie jar and his players were unable to bail him out.

Decoding Garrett - Week 12 - Data - At Arizona

In the great basketball movie, "Hoosiers", Coach Norman Dale walked his team of under-dogs into the gigantic field house where the state tournament was going to be held and showed his team how everything might seem bigger, but it is all the same. He measured the height of the basket (10 feet) and the distance to the free throw line (15 feet). Same as in the gym where they play back in Hickory.

I wonder if Jason Garrett has ever seen Hoosiers. Because when you watch his offense over the course of many years now, or in particular his team since he has taken over as coach, you can see a very distinct difference in the way his team operates offensively when they leave their home stadium.

Now, we should concede that the list of home opponents (Washington, Detroit, St Louis, Seattle, Buffalo, and Miami) seems to be a substantial downgrade from the road opponents (New York Jets, San Francisco, New England, Philadelphia, Washington and Arizona) to explain some variations in performance. However, the differences between the home and road game plans are so drastic and frankly, predictable, that one certainly has room to wonder if the Cowboys attempt to call two different game plans.

At home, they are aggressive and determined. Run and pass splits are nearly identical. They often make their opponents choose their poison and then serve it up on a platter. It may not always work, but they are adventurous and creative in the way they go about their business. They will try even trick plays, they will pass when you think run, they will pound the ball until you can stop it, and they have a swagger.

On the road, they are timid. They are easily chased off their objectives. They abandon the run early and often. They put everything on their QB and his ability to make lemonade out of lemons. They seem to call plays in an effort to prevent disasters rather than to attack. They send a message to the troops that they are not sure if they can score points, so they often don't.

And this pattern has been in place for quite a while. Nobody is saying they never bring their home personality on the road, because they do. And sometimes, their road personality shows up in Arlington, too. But, if you look at the large sample under the play-calling of Jason Garrett, it is clear that there is a split in objectives and intentions between home games and road games.

Let's look at some evidence.

The best way a play caller can send a message to his opponent is by calling plays on 1st Down. It establishes the tone and attitude of the offense and declares to the opponent what is planned for the day.

But, when the Cowboys have been at home this season, on 1st and 10, the Cowboys have run 177 plays. The splits for those 177 snaps to start a play sequence has been 98 runs and 79 passes. The 55%/45% split demonstrates proper balance for a balanced offense. On 1st Down, you run the ball more because on 3rd Down, you almost never run. But as a whole, 55% runs on 1st Down will mean that your overall balance will be intact.

Conversely, when the Cowboys have played their 6 games on the road, they have had 172 1st and 10 situations. The splits on 1st Down when they have been on the road has seen just 68 runs and 104 passes. This 39%/61% split on 1st and 10 sets the Cowboys up for days where they never get anything done on the ground and become a 1-dimensional team. We have even heard explanations about the opponent putting an eighth man in the box to encourage the Cowboys to start slinging the ball around the yard.

Given that almost all of the road games have been very tight games and given that we are only looking at 1st and 10, we must ask why the Cowboys can be 55% run at home and 39% run on the road? We understand throwing the ball on 3rd and 12, but why does this team not allow its running game to attempt to find its footing on the road?

And what are the by-products of becoming 1-dimensional and ultra predictable on the road? Let's look at how teams counter the Cowboys when they have chased Dallas out of running plays. The Dallas Cowboys allow the fewest sacks in the NFL in home games. In 203 pass plays at home, Tony Romo has been sacked 5 times or once every 40.6 pass plays.

On the road, the Cowboys have allowed 20 sacks in 6 games (5th worst in the NFL). These 20 sacks have occurred over 254 pass plays for an average of 1 sack every 12.7 pass plays. It seems rather clear that not having balance is making the Cowboys far easier to blitz. And the blitzing beats up your QB and over-runs your offensive line.

Here is evidence that Romo might be playing his best football of his career. In those 6 road games where he has been under siege throughout the game because of the pass rush, Romo has easily the best passer rating of any QB in the league who is getting sacked 3 times a game or more on the road. His rating of 94.1 on the road this season while being sacked so often is off the charts. Only Alex Smith in San Francisco is coming close with a rating of 85.9. You just wonder what they would do if the Cowboys would bring their home game plan on the road with them.

Run the ball, take the steam out of the pass rush. Don't run the ball, invite the blitz. This is very basic football, but the Cowboys consistently do this to themselves on the road. In fact, if you take Sunday's game plan and compare it with the exact game plan from the New England game, you will find that they treated their play calling in the exact same way. The similarities are uncanny.

Data from Week 12 at Arizona

Run-Pass	20-47
1st Down Run-Pass	9-21
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	8.44
2nd Down Run-Pass	9-16
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	6.66
3rd Down Run-Pass	2-10
3rd Down Conversions	4-12, 33%

HTML Tables

Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan.

Notice that 3 1st Down runs are the lowest of the season. The Cowboys started their first 2 drives on Sunday with runs (both 7 yard gains) and then on the final 9 drives, they passed on 1st down 8 times. It is rather befuddling.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass
Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass
Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass
Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 9-Buffalo - 10 Drives - 7 Run/3 Pass
Wk 10-At Washington - 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 11-Miami - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 12-At Arizona - 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Total: 136 Drives - 58 Run/78 Pass 42% Run


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Here, please note the inefficiency of "S12" where they run their shotgun package with 2 TEs. it is clearly not working well, especially on 3rd down where the Cardinals blitzed the house when the Cowboys tried to put Phillips on the field.

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	1	2	1-2	0-0
12	19	124	5-20	14-104
13	7	16	4-7	3-9
21	3	38	2-14	1-24
22	8	41	6-18	2-23
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S02	3	42	0-0	3-42
S11	19	70	1-3	18-67
S12	7	-6	1-8	6--14
Knee	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	67	327	20-72	47-255

Table Tutorial

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	1	2	1-2	0-0	1/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	1	0	0-0	1-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S02	2	15	0-0	2-15	1/0
S11	5	7	1-3	4-4	2/0
S12	3	-7	0-0	3--7	0/0
Totals	12	17	2-5	10-12	4/0

Table Tutorial

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

Again, the similarities to the numbers from the timid game plan in New England is just amazing. They tried for the exact same game even though they were playing a 4-7 Arizona team.

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66
Wk 2 - SF: 32/66
Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62
Wk 4 - Det: 29/75
Wk 5 - NE 31/67
Wk 6 - StL 10/60
Wk 7 - Phi 39/49
Wk 8 - Sea 19/59
Wk 9 - Buf 15/61
Wk 10-Was 24/73
Wk 11-Mia 25/58
Wk 12-Arz 29/67

Total - 304/762 39.9%


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Bottom line, the Cowboys have to prove that they are a threat on the road to make you pay. But, instead, they constantly enter the game seemingly content to play for a 16-13 game. They don't wish to change their ways, and now opponents have figured it out. It is time for the Cowboys to self-scout and realize what they are becoming on the road. A very predictable and an easy team to defend.

And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

The Morning After: Cardinals 19, Cowboys 13 (7-5)

Yesterday, the Cowboys lost a game they really could not afford to lose. They have been threatening to do this for the last 3 games, and finally their tempting of fate came due and they lost a game that they were heavily favored to win and one that could prove extremely costly when they attempt to enter the playoffs and avoid the most difficult road possible.

They lost a game that now takes them out of the driver's seat and makes all of the games in December just as stressful and vital as they could possibly be, despite much of the NFC trying to do the Cowboys every favor.

And one of the reasons for this defeat - not the only reason by a long-shot - was the way their coach seemed to lose the plot a bit down the stretch in the final moments of the contest.

Jason Garrett and his offense had just converted a very difficult 3rd and 11 when Tony Romo made yet another late-game play on a throw to Dez Bryant and set the Cowboys up at the Cardinals 31-yard line. As a point of reference, there was about :25 left in the game when Dez rose to his feet. The Cowboys owned 2 timeouts at this juncture, and despite that reality, the Cowboys did not stop the clock until Romo clocked the ball with :07 left.

The waste of 18 precious seconds made very little sense really. For one thing, their kicker, Dan Bailey, was having a rough afternoon. He had missed his first field goal in almost 3 months from the 36-yard line in the first Quarter going in the same direction. On that 53-yard kick, he clearly over-kicked with all of his might to get the ball there, revealing concerns about his range from that mid-30's spot on the field. However, the hold from Mat McBriar was certainly not precise and the distance on the kick was more than enough. But, Garrett's confidence appeared shaken. On the very next possession, the Cowboys were beneficiaries of a huge Felix Jones kick return and took the ball over at the Cardinals 35. Trouble is, they were unable to move the ball forward at all (including an odd decision on 3rd and 11 to throw the ball about 1-yard down-field, and when it became decision time, Garrett sent in his punter rather than allowing Bailey to try again from 52-yards.

Two drives later, the Cowboys had yet another drive stall, this time at the Cardinals 32. On this occasion (going the opposite direction at University of Phoenix Stadium), they ran Bailey out there and let him try again. And on this kick, Bailey converted on a 50-yard Field Goal, but barely as it required a friendly carom off the uprights and through.

So, to review, "No" from 53, "Don't try" from 52, and "Yes, but barely" from 50. So, why, from 49 yards do the Cowboys act as if it is a "gimme" and allow time for 2 to 3 more snaps to run off the clock in a game of massive importance? You would have to ask the coach.

Unfortunately, when you ask the coach, the answers are a bit unclear. He suggested that he was concerned about negative plays that might have backed the team out of FG range potentially, which certainly doesn't credit his veteran QB much after his late game heroics in the last few weeks. Fear for a negative play? That, frankly, is what troubles so many about the way the game plan is assembled in so many of these scenarios. Road games, especially against teams that you are favored to beat, tend to reveal game plans that are careful, conservative (1 yard throws on 3rd and 11), and makes the opponents' job so much easier. Attacking is minimized, and the Cowboys end up not attacking for most of the game. That is why they are needing OT to beat the Redskins. That is why they need all 60 minutes to beat the Dolphins by the skin of their teeth. And now, that is why they couldn't beat a Cardinals team led by Kevin Kolb - a guy who had not won a game since Week 1 - in 60 minutes off football. I do fully understand what makes Garrett feel this way as his offensive line is still quite offensive in their performance many weeks, but at some time you have to allow your best players to overcome the performances of the others.

And then, we get to the moment of truth. Dan Bailey lines up a 49-yarder for the win with :07 left. The retelling of the story in a more dramatic way as some have attempted that, "Bailey was in his backswing when the timeout was called" is silly. The whistle happened and then a full 2-count later the ball is snapped and Bailey does what anyone would do, and gets in a practice kick that he makes with ease. But, let us not confuse this with irrefutable evidence that he would have made this kick. There was no rush and frankly no pressure once he heard that whistle.

The reasoning for the timeout in this situation is at least plausible. While it seems hard to understand why the 40-second play clock was running out after a spiked play and a field goal team that appeared ready to go do its job is irrelevant. If the play clock was down to :07 as Garrett said after the game, then I don't mind him calling a timeout to reset everything. Again, it sounds way better to say he is "icing his own kicker" in the papers, but the reality is that a frantic kick with an expiring play clock is less appealing than a calm kick from the same spot.

Of course, the kick was short and the Cowboys never touched the ball again. In overtime, the offense watched as the defense surrendered an 80-yard drive in which they never forced a 3rd Down. The final play was a brilliantly executed screen right into a Rob Ryan fire-zone blitz. It was a perfect call and a touchdown that rocked the Cowboys season. Yet another gutting loss in Glendale.

But, to me, this demonstrates a problem that I have felt has been in place since Jason Garrett was hired last November. The job of head coach is one that I believe fits him well. However, the job of Head Coach on top of his prior post of offensive coordinator is too big in my opinion for most in the early portion of their coaching career.

Very few people know how many decisions a head coach must make in 3 hours. I imagine, only those who have done it would know for sure. Now, add in a couple hundred more decisions that any offensive coordinator must make and put them all inside the head of one human. Surely, it must make someone feel like the most important human in the world to make all of those decisions for the Dallas Cowboys. But, every time I see a challenge call that should have been used, a timeout wasted, a 12-men on the field penalty, a needless delay of game (which happened about a minute earlier), or something else that proves curious (forgetting a key weapon for several possessions in a row) I always come back to feeling like Jason Garrett is trying to do too much.

Unlike many, I do believe he is the man for this job. I believe he is a leader of men and gets them to maximize their abilities and to never quit in any situation. I think Garrett, like Jimmy Johnson, may actually be a better head coach than a coordinator. But, decisions like the one he made yesterday, where he allows 18 seconds to drip off the clock when he needs 5 or 6 more yards to feel confident, make me arrive back at the spot where I have always believed the Cowboys would be better served to hire someone to call plays so that he can have a more clear vision of his head coaching post and make vital decisions at the moments they must be made.

Can certain people do both jobs? Perhaps. But, in this situation and with this team, I would suggest that Garrett could be a much better head coach if he wasn't trying to do both jobs at the same time. One of my first priorities for the off-season would be to bring in a proper play caller and allow Garrett to over-see and occasionally, to over-rule.

But, as it currently stands, it is too much on this one man's plate. The question will be whether or not he and Jerry Jones are willing to concede this.

Sometimes smart men can be exceedingly stubborn. Especially when they refuse to concede that they may have made a mistake.

Stars Blog: The rebuild back to Relevancy

An empty arena looks on as Dallas and Ottawa square off.

A morning scan of the ever-changing Western Conference in the NHL shows that once again those pesky Dallas Stars sit near the top of the conference and at least for the moment, the very top of the Pacific Division.

The margin is certainly noteworthy for those who predicted a 15th place finish in the Western Conference (Hello, Sports Illustrated), but it is also the morning of December 2. That day merely signifies that 25 games are down, and 57 remain in the race to end a 3 year playoff drought for the once proud franchise.

It would seem altogether absurd to jump to conclusions based on 2 months of hockey for the big picture or the cliched "grand scheme of things", but I do think we can draw some micro conclusions from the first 25. Let me try:

1) - It seems possible that the Stars have found a coach that can get them to either achieve their maximum performance level or maybe even overachieve.

Glen Gulutzan is the head coach of this team after being summoned to Dallas by Joe Nieuwendyk in June. He arrived as a coach that very few knew anything about. He likely met the main criteria for the job opening in that he did not have a very high salary requirement by coach's standards. IF Nieuwendyk had wanted to hire anyone in the league for this post, I am pretty sure he was handcuffed with the same financial restrictions that governed every other move he aspired to make in the last few years. But, whatever the method for finding a new coach was, the early results are quite interesting. The team is seeming to find a mode of play that suits them and their personnel. They seem to respond from losses quite well by throwing a solid effort out the next night. The team doesn't seem to concede results because they are down with injuries. These are all very important characteristics to compiling enough points to go to the 2nd season come April. Many coaches arrive as unknowns and some of them make themselves known throughout the league in time. Time will obviously be the judge of whether this is a sleight of hand trick or a foundation is being built for the long term, but so far, one has to be impressed with what he is done out of the gates.

2) - Despite the new ownership and the optimism of change, the city will require a lot more than that to rush back to the rink.

There are two types of sports cities. The first is one where you are the only show in town and because of this exclusivity you have on the minds and wallets of the citizens, you have their loyalty no matter what. The other type of city is the one we live in here in the Metroplex. It is a city of many teams and entertainment avenues and it turns into the survival of the fittest. The team that constructs the best group of talent and gets them to perform at a top level reaps the benefits of the support of the city. Better product means full arena. Full arena means greater profits. Profits can be turned back into the roster with new signings. And the new signings make more people interested in the team and the cycle continues as more people want to come see you play.

Unfortunately, the opposite is also true. If the city doesn't think you are trying to win, they lose interest. The more people that lose interest, the emptier your building is. The emptier your building is, the more money you lose. The more money you lose means less will be invested to improve the team. And the less you invest in your team causes fewer people to care how you play. And that is where the Stars are right now. There remains a circle of loyalists still plugged in, but the lion's share of the city's sports enthusiasts have moved on to other amusements. Last night, with a Thursday night affair with Ottawa, the announced crowd of just over 10,000 fans seemed extremely optimistic. The team is playing well, but very small patches of the city seem to notice. New ownership and management can turn this around, but it won't happen overnight.

3) - The roster is reasonably well fortified at many spots, not fortified at others.

Let's face it, when you have to hurry and sign a player before you get in trouble with the league for not spending enough money on your payroll to stay above the salary cap floor, then you are not going to be able to compare your roster with those who are finding ways to fit another play under the cap ceiling. It is simple economics and a stark reminder why different players earn different salaries - because better players get paid more money!

So, when you are spending to the floor and others spend to the ceiling, that roughly $15 million hurts you in two ways. Top shelf talent cannot be afforded - thus the loss of Brad Richards to the New York Rangers - and enough depth to overcome a rash of injuries is often the other way. To the Stars credit, they have lost a ton of talent in the last month, (Adam Burish, Alex Goligoski, Brenden Morrow, Kari Lehtonen, and Trevor Daley are all down right now) and yet they continue to achieve. They have many reasons to plummet in the standings presently, and yet they keep grinding out results. Their run of form in their last 6 games (4-1-1, 9 points) has been outstanding, including the Colorado and Ottawa games this week where they found wins without their franchise goaltender, 4 other regulars, and a power play that almost seems to conspire against them.

After they play the New York Islanders on Saturday, they leave on a huge 5-game roadtrip that includes California and New York. During that trip, they will not have Lehtonen between the pipes and many of the regulars will be touch-and-go. But, if they can somehow still be sitting near 1st place by Christmas, I have to believe new ownership will feel that this season is worth investing in. With the injured players returning (allowing the depth to make moves) I would then expect an aggressive approach to working the phones for the first time in the Nieuwendyk era.

And that aggressive move is when the city raises their collective eyebrows and head back to the building in masses. This won't happen overnight, but it can happen rather quickly. Just give the finicky Dallas sports fan something to believe in. The team needs to keep playing hard, and the return of the Stars to relevancy in their own city could happen this season.

Cowboys Mailbag 12/1/12

Today, we will dip into some emails after I unveil a new feature to my blogs here that I admit is awful experimental.

It is a "passing chart" based on where Tony Romo is going with his passes. I am not so interested in where the play ended, but rather where the pass was intended and completed. Blue passes are completions, red are incompletions, and purple are the two interceptions from Thanksgiving Day.

Ideally, this will tell us things on a week to week basis such as: Where Tony Romo has tendencies to throw the ball (right handed QBs tend to throw right far more often, but Romo may not be as bad as many). How aggressive the game plan was in a given game (often times we rate aggressive game plans on a raw number of pass plays. However, this is a bad idea since not all pass plays are created equal. In the Jason Garrett offense, he substitutes short passes for run plays when he has no faith in a run between the tackles as we saw in New England and Minnesota the last time the Cowboys were in both places). It will also show us where they were attacking and what a defense was conceding.

The yellow line is the line of scrimmage for each play. We attempt to mark the release point of Romo and the catch point of the receiver. Hypothetically, this will show us what throws Romo can make versus Kitna. It can also show us how they are using Dez Bryant if we make a chart for Bryant catches for the season (as we will do when the season ends).

Anyway, it is experimental, and Tim Krajewski deserves the credit for the actual building of my concept. We will continue to tweak as we go, but below, please find the first public appearance of the Romo passing chart. Feel free to offer feedback so we can get it right. And try to ignore the yard markers, as they are only a reference point rather than specific information on where the play was located. The yellow line is the line of scrimmage.

Romo versus Miami, Week 11. Blue=completions. Red=incompletions. Purple=interceptions.



OK, now, on to our email:

I really enjoy your articles on Cowboy’s Personnel. Great reading. Here’s my question.

At times the Cowboys have different personnel in their groupings, i.e. sometimes it’s Murray and sometimes Jones or Choice. Same with tight ends and receivers. How do they communicate these changes to the players in such a rapid fashion that the players get in and out on time?

Thanks
Dennis Dusek
La Vernia, Texas


Great question, Dennis. And it shows the complexities of how the NFL really operates. What he is asking is about specific players inside personnel packages. For instance, "12" personnel (1 RB, 2 TE) can mean Murray, Witten, and Bennett or it can mean Murray, Witten, and Phillips. To you the fan, this might not mean anything. But to a defense, they will treat each tight end differently in coverage ideas. They know that Bennett is a guy that could perhaps run by a linebacker (although we seldom see it - just imagine that he can), whereas Phillips is a player that you would not worry about shaking loose from a LB. Or, "21" personnel (2 RB and 1 TE) could mean Murray and Fiammetta or it could mean Murray and Jones. Well, a defense better understand that while Fiammetta is never going to do anything downfield, Felix Jones can take his man on a wheel route and turn it into a big play if you are not properly defending him.

The offense has sub packages in each personnel grouping on the sideline. Garrett will yell out "21" if it is standard "21", but "21 mini" if it is Jones and Murray. He will have different names for each group and that will identify which WRs or TEs he wants on the field. And this gives the defenses one more thing to worry about. Hope that helps.

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Hey Bob,

I thought you would enjoy this one: Dallas is first in the league in sacking the QB on the road and last in the league in sacks at home. I am astounded by this stat. How in the heck is this Rob Ryan machine not generating sacks right here at home with the crowd on their side and all of the other advantages of a home game? It amazes me that no one has brought this up before (when I read this, I had a vivid image of Stafford sprinting out of the pocket to his right and throwing the ball away to avoid the sack. It felt like he did that about 10 times in the first half of that game--never took a sack).

roger light

Through 11 games, the Cowboys have 30 sacks. This places them in 7th place in the NFL in team sacks (Baltimore 1st, 38) and 4th in the NFC (Minnesota, Washington, and NY Giants have more). But, yes, quite oddly, they have 20 in 5 road games (1st in NFL), and just 10 in 6 home games (26th most). His email was sent before the Thanksgiving game, so the Cowboys are no longer in last place at home as they bagged 4 more against Matt Moore.

Why is this? That is a wonderful question. I do wonder about your theory that the crowd "is on their side" as I find the new stadium to be about as quiet a home stadium as there is around the league on game day. I certainly know they had the best intentions when they build the gigantic edifice, but I believe the high prices and the high comfort puts people in a slightly "upscale" frame of mind. Add to it the magnetic tv screen above the field and somehow the Cowboys have created a fan experience that seems to hypnotize their own fans into a docile state.

To compare it to a true home stadium sound advantage of a New Orleans or similar enclosed stadiums around the league seems a silly waste of time. That being said, the pass rush should not be that related to the sound when it comes to simply equaling the production on the road where they get no help whatsoever. To average 4 sacks per game on the road and less than 2 at home is a confusing number that may just be an example of sample sizes being so small. It is certainly worth keeping an eye on.

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I understand the well-documented impact of Tony Fiametta. I’d like to understand your thoughts on the impact of Miles Austin? In particular, upon Austin’s return, do you think they’ll reduce their use of “12” personnel because they’d rather have Austin, Robinson and Bryant on the field to stress the defense, or does the lack of a fullback still require them to use 2 tights? Or could they use more “02” personnel groupings to get the 3 wides out there, but then lose Murray on those plays?

I appreciate your coverage of the Cowboys … the most substantive coverage out there without all the “noise.”

Best regards,

Bill


Thanks, Bill. This is one that I would love to ask Garrett about. Many of the best offenses in the league use "11" personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, and 3 WR) as their standard offense. The Cowboys, since I have been charting them in 2008, have almost never used 11 personnel from under center. They do use it extensively on 3rd Downs and the 2-minute drill, but that is exclusively out of the shotgun. Of course, in this situation, the Cowboys run about 11% of the time, and that is almost always a play like a 3rd and long draw play where they are just trying to get a few yards for the punter.

Why do other teams love "11" personnel? Because, it forces the defense to play nickel (5 DBs) or dime (6 DBs) immediately on 1st and 10. And this then means that their running game has far more space because to run nickel, a defense has to take off a linebacker and replace him with a guy who doesn't weigh 200 pounds. The Cowboys have never liked this, and I have never honestly understood why. In 689 offensive snaps this season, they have run "11" personnel 13 plays total. They obviously don't believe in it, even though as you astutely point out, it seems the Cowboys have the perfect personnel for such a strategy. It may show us that although the OL is playing better, he just doesn't trust them yet. To play "11" as your base, you better believe that your OL can protect your QB. "11" will require plenty of "scat" protection, which means just your 5 OL protecting with no help from TE or RB. So, the answer might be that simple.

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Bob,

What in the wide world of sports were the Dolphins doing on that play in the 1st Quarter with the wacky formation? And how is that legal?

Thanks,

Ted

Ted, I am so happy you brought it up. This play is something I could study all day.



The play can be seen on video here and shows that the Dolphins were lining up a center and then 7 players to his right. Brandon Marshall goes in motion from the left sideline to the right and that leaves only Matt Moore and Reggie Bush in the backfield. By nature of the rules, the Dolphins are required to have 7 on the line (which they do) and each end is an eligible receiver. As I understand it that means that the Dolphins center is also an eligible receiver (I promise I have never seen that before). Here is another look at the formation:



It sure looks like the Cowboys just ignored the wacky formation and lined up the defense on the middle of the line and not the football. I wonder what happens if the Dolphins try to attack DeMarcus Ware with an eligible center, Reggie Bush, and Matt Moore? It seems the Cowboys are all shifted so far that if they can figure out a way to outflank Ware, this could be a big play to the weakside, but of course, that requires them to attack the most athletic player in the game.

Anyway, Sean Lee blew the play up, and the Dolphins never tried it again, but I was thoroughly fascinated.

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Bob-

The games that Fiametta have played are the games the Cowboys have run well. You and a lot of others have noticed that. But you've always spoken with great respect of Football Focus and Fiametta grades rather poorly with them. Thoughts?

JDRB

This is an excellent discussion to touch on. Fiammetta is a name that is getting a ton of play this season, and I feel that I am responsible for helping to get it started by talking about the great production of the run game and the offense when he is on the field.

But, is it all because of him? My friends at ProFootballFocus.com have him ranked as the 18th best FB out of 31 in the league. That is hardly great evidence that the Cowboys have an elite player here. But, I think it is possible that we are having two different discussions. Are the Cowboys playing better with him on the field? Yes. Is it precisely because of him? Maybe not. There are so many moving parts during a given football play that I think it would be absurd to say that any success out of "21" personnel can be linked back to one, largely anonymous player. However, there must be some connection because when John Phillips tries to be plugged in on many of the same plays, the plays are not as productive with everything else seeming to be the same. With Fiammetta, it is possible that the defenses are reacting differently. Perhaps they are more likely to sit on a run play and move a safety into the box, but with Phillips back there, they assume it could be a play action pass.

I would be careful to say all of this is because of Fiammetta. I would not lock him up to a long term extension because of our statistics that show the team runs best with him there. But, I also don't want to ignore the evidence. He seems very competent as a lead blocker. But, he is also not blocking 3 players at a time.

The best example of individual performance versus team performance is the play of a Left Tackle on a Pick 6. The play was a disaster and might have lost the game. But, the left tackle did his job perfectly and might have been given the maximum grade for his work. The point being that when things go right, someone still failed at their job, and when things go poorly, someone did great. It is simply the fabric of football.