Tuesday, November 04, 2008

NFC East Run In...and Stuff

WeekDallasNew YorkPhillyWash
11@ WashBalt@ CinDal
12SF@ Arz@ Balt@ Sea
13Sea@ WashArzNYG
14@ PittPhil@ NYG@ Balt
15NYG@ DalCle@ Cin
16BaltCar@ WashPhil
17@ Phil@ MinnDal@ SF

The Redskins appear to be joining the Bills as the team most likely to fall back to earth. I say that not because I don’t believe the Redskins are an up and coming team, I say it because at the present they are showing signs of being a fairly ordinary team presently. However, like the Bills, this is not a beauty pageant, and those wins they put in the bank in September should be more than enough to keep them in the mix until at least Christmas. Further, with a final 3 games that has At Cin, Phil, and At SF to close the season, the Redskins real gauntlet hits in the next 4 weeks out of the bye.

At Sea
New York
At Balt

Only Seattle is a breather, and it is possible when that game hits in 19 days Matt Hasselbeck is the Seahawks starter again. If they get through this at stretch at 8-5 (so 2-2 in the 4 games), then they are still in the driver’s seat to earn a Wildcard.

The most disconcerting element of the Redskins situation is the turnover battle (which they desperately need to be in their favor to win). Well, in that great run that got them to 4-1, they were sitting at a +6 with 7 takeaways and 1 giveaway. But since, with a 4 game stretch that saw a loss to St Louis, late wins against Cleveland and At Detroit, and then last night’s meat grinder with Pittsburgh, the Redskins have been a team with 7 giveaways and just 2 takeaways (-5). This takes them down to a mere +1. Still way better than the silly Cowboys number of -6, but we know the Cowboys have been bad – that is a given.

And then here is the real shocker: Washington’s 9 takeaways rank 2nd to last in the NFC. Only Seattle has fewer, with 8. Yes, even the Cowboys defense (11) has taken the ball away more. Take heart Redskins fans, the Cowboys turnover prone offense is coming to town after your bye. Only San Francisco (20) has more giveaways than the Cowboys (17).


Now, on to TC’s project of charting the 300 yard passer vs the 100 yard runner winning percentage. The idea is that 300 yard passing games does not lead to wins at the rate of the 100 yard rusher.

Week Nine for 300 yard throwers (3-2)
Donovan McNabb PHI SEA 349 Win, 26-7
Kurt Warner ARI STL 342 Win, 34-13
Jeff Garcia TB KC 339 Win, 30-27
Aaron Rodgers GB TEN 314 Loss 16-19
Jay Cutler DEN MIA 307 Loss, 17-26

Total Season record for 300 yard passers: 23-12 (65.7%)

Week Nine for 100 yard Rushers (8-1)
Ray Rice BAL CLE 154 Win, 37-27
Adrian Peterson MIN HOU 139 Win, 28-21
Michael Turner ATL OAK 139 Win, 24-0
Matt Forte CHI DET 126 Win, 27-23
Brandon Jacobs NYG DAL 117 Win, 35-14
Tim Hightower ARI STL 109 Win, 34-13
Jamaal Charles KC TB 106 Loss, 27-30
Cedric Benson CIN JAC 104 Win, 21-19

Total Season Record for 100 yard rushers: 41-13 (75.9%)

Meanwhile, in our tracking of the theory that the “Turnover Winner wins the Game”:
Turnover winners in Week 9 went 11-1. Only the Eagles won the game while losing the turnover battle.

For the season, the Turnover Battle winners have a 85-21 record, for a win percentage that is barely over 80% at 80.2%. Since we have tracked these numbers, I predict it will actually get to 85% by the end of the season.


Anyone think the Steelers were a little bit better prepared for getting a QB hurt than the Cowboys? It won them a game last night.


Brad Johnson is now the #3 …and soon to be retired…

Mavs get smoked …head to San Antonio tonight….

Offensive freedom is a funny thing.

It also gives a team freedom to fail.

No one ever talks about that. It's not all fun and fast breaks. It's not always the cathartic, stat-boosting release players assume occurs the moment a team makes the transition from methodical to up-tempo.

That may turn out to be the case for these Mavericks. But Monday night's 100-81 loss to Cleveland shows this transformation is far from complete.

"Games like this, it always feels like you're eons away," coach Rick Carlisle said. "But the truth is, you're always closer to being where you need to be than you think, and vice versa.

"This is a fragile thing. The thing that has to be there all the time is really a committed sense of urgency on every possession.

"We've got a good team. We've got a lot of talented guys. But we can't afford to go out there and float for any stretches of time."

Float is an apt description. The Mavericks shot 40.8 percent from the field and, other than a brief stretch in the second period, settled for jumpers.

One problem is a team can't run if it doesn't rebound. The Cavaliers hammered the Mavericks, 52-35. It was the third time in three games the Mavericks have come up short on the boards.

Four days into the season is too early to panic. Save that angst for the Cowboys. They've earned it.

But there was no flow to the offense this night. Guard Jason Terry said the team had, "a funky rhythm." Spacing was poor. The team had 14 turnovers that, in the words of Carlisle, seemed like 24.

Stars sign Mark Parrish …Funny thing about perspective. If the Stars had signed him in the off-season, I would be very pleased because I really have always appreciated his game. But, since he is into November without any of the 700 NHL jobs, I am very skeptical about where his body is. He is only 31. He should still be a force in the crease and in the corners. So, I like this, but I am also very curious. We shall see.

Dallas on Monday agreed to terms with free-agent winger Mark Parrish on a one-year contract, according to co-general manager Les Jackson.

Parrish is expected to take a physical today with the Stars. If he passes, he will join the NHL roster and probably play Friday against the Anaheim Ducks.

"It's a deal that we think can work for us," Jackson said. "It's one we can afford, and one we think is worth trying."

Parrish, who was bought out of the remaining three years of a five-year contract in July by the Minnesota Wild, is expected to receive $5.5 million from that deal.
His deal with the Stars will pay him $500,000 at the NHL level and $100,000 at the minor-league level.

Jackson said the move makes sense for the Stars on several levels. Parrish is only 31 and appears to have recovered from injuries that limited his playing time last season with the Wild.

He has played internationally for Team USA with Mike Modano and should be a good fit on a line with Modano, Brad Richards, Mike Ribeiro or Toby Petersen.

Parrish becomes the Stars' third right-handed shooting forward, and he provides a shooter's mentality, something the Stars' wingers have lacked.

"He's right-handed; he likes to shoot," Jackson said. "We think he can play."
Parrish was hurt for part of last season and had a rocky relationship with Minnesota coach Jacques Lemaire.

He played 76 games in 2006-07 and tallied 19 goals and 20 assists for the Wild. He followed that with 66 games last season with 16 goals and 14 assists.

In his career, Parrish has played 660 games with 208 goals and 164 assists for 372 points.

Rangers talk live from California with Evan …Maddux is in the fold, but what about catchers?

From the moment I walked into the St. Regis hotel (site of AIG's infamous expensive post-bailout executive retreat), I have been besieged by my brethren and sisteren in the sportswriting profession. Everybody wants to know what the Rangers will do with their catching depth. And I want to know what pitchers clubs are willing to move for catchers. So far, that's all that has happened here is a lot of sportswriters asking one another questions and not getting many answers.

I've told my colleagues that the Rangers would probably rank their catchers in this order (in terms of wanting to hold on to them): 1. Taylor Teagarden, 2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 3. Gerald Laird, 4. Max Ramirez. But I don't think Teagarden is untouchable. Here's an interesting scenario to ponder: Let's suppose the Rangers identify Boston's Clay Bucholz as the young pitcher they most desire. Let's say Boston won't do Bucholz for Saltalamacchia, but will do it for Teagarden. Do you hold out and wait for the Red Sox to come to your terms (with the distinct possibility they won't) or do you pull the trigger now? That's a hypothetical question. Nothing to back up that is something the Rangers are considering, just that it's a realistic scenario that might present itself.

A Basketball Coaching blog attempts to explain the Mavericks offense

New from NFL Films= The 10 ten greatest games in Cowboys history (subjective) …All in their entirety…

Here are the 10 games to be included on the set according to another dvd site:
Super Bowl VI - Cowboys vs. ... Full DescriptionDolphins - 1/16/72; The Hail Mary Game - Cowboys vs. Vikings - 12/28/75; Super Bowl XII - Cowboys vs. Broncos - 1/15/78; The Atlanta Comeback - Cowboys vs. Falcons - 1/4/81; 1992 NFC Championship Game - Cowboys vs. 49ers - 1/17/93; Super Bowl XXVII - Cowboys vs. Bills - 1/31/93; 1993 NFC Championship Game - Cowboys vs. 49ERS - 1/23/94; Super Bowl XXVIII - Cowboys vs. Bills - 1/30/94; 1995 NFC Championship Game - Cowboys vs. PACKERS - 1/14/96; and Super Bowl XXX - Cowboys vs. Steelers - 1/28/96.

BTIA ranks the Rangers prospects


Bob - first off, love your show...been listening when i can for quite a while...your prep., humor, and factual support to back your opinions are great...

this quick note is on a comment you made earlier today..i caught a bit of it in and out...but when you were noting the list of top pro qb prospects, you said (in a general sense) you weren't sure why Matthew Stafford would be #1 on the prospect list for next year...

watching this kid through the punishment of his freshman year at Georgia...poor receiving core..to what he is maturing into (the LSU game this past week was great for him)..his arm strength, size, head, guts...he's got IT.....mcoy/harrell/daniel/bradford are all great talents..but stafford, beyond a numbers comparison, is the guy i would think you would pick over these others.......

all to say, i wasn't sure if you are not convinced of Stafford's skills or just not watched him enough to have a feel, or you have and you just don't see it.....whatever it be....good fodder.....thanks, Price

Well, I want you to know that first, I have only seen Georgia about twice a year since he has been there.

Florida each year, and Hawaii last year, and Alabama this year-

So, maybe a total of 5 starts in 3 years. Hardly enough sample size.

But I am watching him against Florida today, and wow. What a freaking arm.

I see it. I see it.


(I wrote that as the game was going on…Georgia and Stafford got routed after the email was sent – but he does have a cannon). And so did Jeff George…So I need to see more.


I find it ironic if the Big Twelve South ends with fifteen guys tied with one loss, that the key to the door to get them to the Big Twelve championship game might lie in Fort Worth. If I am Bob Stoops, I am calling TCU and pumping them up for their showdown with Utah on Thursday. If TCU wins out, they will be in the Top Ten in the BCS rankings. Then, the single OU loss to a Top Ten BCS team might just be the tie breaker. While Tech, OSU, Texas and OU all bleed each other, it might be the non-conference schedule that makes the difference. How ironic.


Donny Ray


Big time Texas homer and here to give little brother credit for taking it to UT and winning. I am glad to see that several writers out there are giving props to UT as well for that game. To get beat up and down the field all game and it still com come down to one play to win speaks volumes of the UT program and how there is no way in HELL you can call them a soft program anymore.

Anyway I have done some research and here are the final scenarios with a few assumptions that are all pretty much givens I think. To sum up, as long as UT is in a 3 way tie with any of the other 3 schools or a 2 way with OSU or UO, UT goes to represent the south. As long as UT and Tech are not the only 2 1 loss teams in the division, UT still goes to KC. They don’t hold their own fait, but they are done playing all these guys and now we can sit back and watch them beat up on each other. If you really want to get into the math, friend of mine who is a stats and probability guy for Texas Instruments who does his own BCS and is pretty accurate has UT still with a 70% chance of going to KC.

Hope you enjoy Keep up the good work!

1. Texas wins out
2. Tech beats Baylor
3. OU beats aggy
4. Okie State beats Colorado
5. Texas finishes higher in BCS than Okie State and OU for Big 12 tie-breaker purposes

IF Tech beats OSU, Tech beats OU, OSU beats OU
Tech 11 – 1 Represents South in Big XII championship game
Texas 11 -1
OSU 10 - 2
OU 9 - 3

IF Tech beats OSU, Tech beats OU, OU beats OSU
Tech 11 – 1 Represents South in Big XII championship game
Texas 11 -1
OU 10 - 2
OSU 9 - 3

IF Tech beats OSU, OU beats Tech, OU beats OSU
Texas 11 -1 Represents South in Big XII championship game
OU 11 – 1
Tech 11 -1
OSU 9 – 3

IF Tech beats OSU, OU beats Tech, OSU beats OU
Texas 11 -1
Tech 11 -1 Represents South in Big XII championship game
OU 10 - 2
OSU 10 – 2

IF OSU beats Tech, Tech beats OU, OU beats OSU
Texas 11 -1
Tech 11 -1 Represents South in Big XII championship game
OU 10 - 2
OSU 10 – 2

IF OSU beats Tech, Tech beats OU, OSU beats OU
Texas 11 -1 Represents South in Big XII championship game
Tech 11 -1
OSU 11-1
OU 9 -3

IF OSU beats Tech, OU beats Tech, OSU beats OU
Texas 11 -1 Represents South in Big XII championship game
OSU 11-1
OU 10 – 2
Tech 10 – 2

IF OSU beats Tech, OU beats Tech, OU beats OSU
Texas 11 -1 Represents South in Big XII championship game
OU 11 -1
OSU 10-2
Tech 10 – 2

Tired Head?

Mike Jenkins is not a brave warrior

Mike Leach Song


Gravypan said...

Slight problem with Texas Homer's assumptions.

The Horns are where they are ahead of OU in the BCS right now strictly because of the computers. And they've finished up with all of the ranked opponents on their regular season schedule, so the lead they enjoy over OU will only go down as long as the Sooners win it.

And since OU is ahead of Texas in both the Harris and Coaches Poll, it's not very likely that a three-way tie would be kind to Texas.

It'll either be OU or Tech representing the South if there's a three-way tie. Texas' best hope is for OSU to beat them next week and OU to beat them on November 22nd.

Jay Beerley said...

I mentioned last week that I was concerned about the corner bragging, but if it got the defense pumped, then I guess it's ok. Boy was I wrong. There is obviously some issue here and I wouldn't doubt that either Jenkins or Scandrick might not be on this team in 4 years if they don't have attitude changes. And Ware's antics are also disappointing.
We should really be fining a guy EVERY time he tries to "shoulder" a guy down and not attempt to wrap him up. And to not even attempt that? Well, there aren't words.
Can we borrow Mike Singletary for a couple of weeks?

Bitterwhiteguy said...

Gravypan, it's worth noting that as Texas' numbers fall it hurts OU as well. OU isn't living in a bubble on this one.