Always the horses, seldom the jockey...
Daily Commentary on the Dallas Sports Scene - By Bob Sturm - Sportsradio 1310, The Ticket - The Athletic Dallas - The Athletic - Bob Sturm
Primarily for my personal use, I am have compiled a Dez Bryant news archive so that I can remember everything. I am sure not all of this is his fault (or is even newsworthy), but wow he can keep the media busy.
I am attempting to keep this news archive to merely stories that are not directly related to catching the football stories.
Feel free to remind me what I have missed, and I will add them if you email or comment a link.
Of course owner Jerry Jones offered up cautious point in June when asked about Bryant’s incident-free offseason up to that time, "As soon as you note that, the next morning you’ve got one."
The Following is the 7th in an 11-part weekly series throughout the summer that will focus on the eleven plays that shaped 2011 for the Dallas Cowboys. Every game, about 130 actual plays happen and over the course of a season that number can exceed 2,000. But, we have selected 11 and will pick one each week and break it down from standpoint of "X's and O's" and see what we can learn looking back. The plays are not ranked, simply presented as the season unfolded. We hope you enjoy.
The final 5 editions of this 11-part series take us down the stretch drive. The next 2 will be of the positive variety, and unfortunately, like the season itself, the final 3 will not turn out so well for the home team.
This week, we need to spend some time on one of the elite players of this team. Jason Witten has been so elite for so long, that the level of appreciation for his week-in, week-out play almost gets lost in all of the noise of a Cowboys season. In fact, Terrell Owens, in his most disgruntled form, tried to use his chemistry and unspoken language with Tony Romo as proof of a clique in the Cowboys locker room that keeps the Cowboys from moving forward. Most informed people had a great laugh at that nonsense, but for the most part, Witten hasn't missed a beat as his Hall of Fame career marches on.
At some point, his elite performance level will diminish as he has now passed his 30th birthday, but there seems very few signs of that right now. He has not missed a single game since his rookie year, when on October 12th, 2003, the Cowboys played the Eagles without Witten. Since then, he has played 143 straight games and has made an impact on plenty of them.
As his career has been recognized, his numbers have continued to grow. In the 5 years since Jason Garrett has run the Cowboys offense, Witten has been featured over and over again. In fact, there are 10 names in the entire NFL that have more receiving yards than he does over those 80 games: Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Wes Welker, Brandon Marshall, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings, Steve Smith, and Marques Colston. You will notice that there are no tight ends in that list at all. Yes, other tight ends have had bigger seasons than Jason Witten. But, over the long 5 year sample, Witten's 5,071 yards and 444 catches are enough to put him atop all tight ends. During that span, Tony Gonzalez has 4,628 and Antonio Gates has 4,405. Witten doesn't get the same praise as those two, but he does get the results.
The Redskins started 2011 with a 3-1 record (the only loss to the Cowboys), but by this day in November, the Redskins would be 3-6 and eventually end the season at 5-11 for another sub standard year of football in the nation's capital. They had many talented defensive players and a unit that can cause many issues for their opponent, but the very poor QB play has been an issue for a long stretch in Washington.
I am taking some license here at the writer to suggest that this Touchdown to Witten is the pivotal play of the game. Fans will recall that there were more than a handful of plays in this contest, including another long 3rd Down conversion to Dez Bryant in overtime (against who else? DeAngelo Hall) that put this game in the win column. But, given that this play was one of the longest touchdowns of the year and given that it features one of the central figures of this decade of Cowboys football, I elected it for this week's breakdown.
The Play: Cowboys 17, Redskins 17 - 4Q - 9:01 - 3rd Down, 8 to go. Ball at Dallas 41 - Shotgun 12 Personnel - T.Romo pass deep middle to J.Witten for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
To fully appreciate what we are looking at here, one needs to understand the cat and mouse game that Haslett and Garrett have been playing in these 2 games. There are 3rd Downs and there are high leverage 3rd Downs late in games that are close and hanging in the balance. As we examine both meetings, we see that it comes down to the Cowboys being a bit better both times, but hardly due to Jason Garrett's play-calling. Closer to the truth is the improvisational skills of Tony Romo.
The other element very much at play here is the safety position of the Washington Redskins. Like their counterparts in Dallas, safety has been a bit of a revolving door over the last several seasons in Washington. Proof of that is that all 3 main players in a story from Game 10 of last season are pretty much out of the mix in Redskins-land for 2012. OJ Atogwe is now in Philadelphia, LaRon Landry is a Jet, and DeJon Gomes is buried well down the Skins roster.
Click on all pictures to enlarge. Here in Picture #1, we can clearly identify the Cowboys S12 lineup, with Witten in the right slot, Laurent Robinson wide right and Dez Bryant wide left. In the backfield beside Romo, John Phillips is to the right and Felix Jones is to the right.
Picture #1
In the 2nd picture, we count that the Redskins are only rushing 4 and dropping 7. We will see later in the play that this is actually rushing 3 and dropping 8, because Ryan Kerrigan will peel off and chase John Phillips once Phillips releases into a route.
Picture #2
OK, inside the red circle below is the rookie safety, DeJon Gomes, filling in for the injured Landry. His responsibility is to provide over the top help to his half of the field. This will require him to read the deeper threat and either help to the inside with Witten or to assist to the outside if Robinson gets behind the corner on that side, which appears to be #34 Bryon Westrbook. Witten's curl route past the sticks (at the Dallas 49 yard line) is covered by several dropped linebackers, but as the play morphs into a sandlot play when Romo escapes the pressure in the pocket, Gomes will need to collapse down to Witten - something that he fails to read in time.
Picture #3
In the frame below, we see the moment Romo has to make his final read. He has spun to the left of the pocket because he could feel Redskins' LB and sack artist Brian Orakpo collapsing down on Doug Free. One of Romo's trademark moves as a Brett Favre cover band is to spin back against a rusher from the left tackle side. It is human instinct to try to run from a pass rush, but as a QB gains experience, he learns how difficult that can be to outrun a edge rusher who is at a full gallop as he turns the corner. Instead, you can buy more time as a QB with the risky move of spinning left when a rusher is coming from your left. The reasons this is risky are obvious - but the worst part is that you must turn your back to your receivers as you spin if you are right-handed. Now, Romo must re-find all of his targets and assess the field as Orakpo is closing down on him. He knows that it is 3rd and 8 so Romo is not considering the underneath options of Jones and Phillips who have both released when they saw the Redskins zone drop.
Picture #4
Now, let's go back to the pre snap and look at the play again from the end zone camera that the coaching staff will use to determine the roles of the pass protection group and the quarterback. The two arrows show Felix Jones and John Phillips locking on to their primary blitz pickups, or more specifically, the players that will determine their duties for this play. In the event that the nickel defense of the Redskins on 3rd and 8 turns into a blitz, Jones and Phillips will stay put. This is often called "check - release". They check those two players to see what the plan is, and then release into the flats if there is no protection required. In 2010, Chris Gronkowski was fooled on the play that Romo was injured in because he checked the LB, released, and then the LB came on a delay rush and broke Romo's collarbone. To be clear, those two inside linebackers will not necessarily be the primary responsibility of Jones and Phillips. But, rather, if those two blitz, Jones and Phillips will stay in to be a part of the protection scheme. Phillips will now chip Kerrigan - 91 who is rushing on Tyron Smith, whereas Jones will now head out the "A gap" into the middle flat.
Picture #5
Below, Picture #6 corresponds time-wise with Picture #3, above. At this point of the play, Romo has but one option that is open. That is a quick dump off to Felix Jones (blue circle). But, with the score 17-17 in the 4th Quarter, Romo is not willing to accept a punt right here if he can help it, and a dump off the Jones 5 yards short of a 1st down with 2 linebackers ready to get him to the ground. Meanwhile, we put a red arrow on Brian Orakpo, who has Doug Free backing into Romo, and he also has Romo's full attention. Whether he is in actual danger or not, Romo is now spending more time thinking about his left tackle than he is thinking about potential targets downfield.
Picture #6
OK, now Picture #7. This is a spot that there is simply no coach of a young QB that will authorize this type of evasive action. I am guessing most coaches would scold his QB for bailing out of the pocket this quickly, because fundamentally, Romo was not in so much trouble here that he had to bail out. But, he did, and because he did, this 5 yard pass from Jones turned into a 59 yard touchdown to Witten. In this picture, while Witten is using the opportunity to head for green grass that is not being watched by Gomes the safety, Romo has his chest facing the opposite end zone. But, this unconventional maneuver buys him another second, which is what the play calls needed.
Picture #7
Most right-handed QBs do not throw very well running to their left. The reason is that it is quite difficult to be able to square your body to throw to most of the field. When running or scrambling left, the only throw that is easy to pull off is to the left sideline. Otherwise, you have to square your body and that takes time and space. Romo does so in Picture #8, and this is where we discuss the rookie safety Gomes again. Picture #8 corresponds time-wise with Picture #4 and in that frame, you can see that Gomes does not make a veteran decision. This is his first game of starting in the NFL and it shows. What he should have done is realize that Laurent Robinson is no longer a threat once Romo bails to his left. That would now be classified as an impossible throw from the left flat to the deep right sideline. It either cannot be done or if it can be done, you make them prove it. Gomes had to peak up to see Romo spin left and when that happens he has to dive down on Witten quickly or this is going to be a problem. Once he doesn't, Witten knows where Romo needs him to go. This is where chemistry and unspoken knowledge of what the other is going to do comes in handy. Witten knows to convert his hook route into a deep in that is beyond the middle zone defenders. And Romo is locked on just one guy. Why? Because they know where each other will be. And that should never be described as a bad thing when a play has broken down like this.
Picture #8
In #8 and #9, you can see what else Romo is dealing with. You can see that Orakpo has now readjusted his sights on Romo and after the spin, no longer has to go through Doug Free to get to him. So, as Romo is setting his feet and squaring his shoulders, he is also seeing an unblocked Orakpo closing in at a rapid rate. The throw looks easy if you consider the blown coverage, but if you consider the fact that this throw is going to include a painful ending, it gets a little more difficult. In picture #9, the ball is gone and if Witten catches it, he will be able to run for a while.
Picture #9
Finally, in Picture #10, we see that Witten can still pick them up and put them down at a rapid rate. His foot speed, which never gets brought up enough, is still such that he can race 3 Redskins defensive backs to the end zone from the 25 yard line, and they can not catch him. Touchdown.
Picture #10
This play, which can be seen on video here is another sign that most of Romo's decisions turned out very well last season. He really played a high level, despite the fact that the network shows will repeatedly rerun those plays where he did not make sound decisions against the Jets and Lions. In fact, his last interception against the Lions in that gutting loss was a situation where he thought Witten was behind the linebackers and the safety had busted, too. But, on that play, he could not plant his feet and make a good throw so it was picked off by Stephen Tulloch.
But, when you look at Romo's best plays of the season, you see that so many of them come off plays where he makes something out of nothing. When the group of people that look forward to a new, young QB to replace Romo speak up, I wonder if they realize that the next guy likely won't have improvisational skills like this guy. I get tired of the endless discussions of his mental makeup and whether he can ever "win the big one", because so much of that is out of his control. But, in the simple talk about whether or not he can defy Xs and Os and make plays to win a game, Romo never gets enough credit for what he can do in plays like this. This was simply a QB who found a TD on a play that called for a 5 yard dump down to Felix Jones.
And it certainly helps to have a tight end who knows what to do and when to do it to offer a security blanket when things break down. Romo to Witten has been quite a combination around here for quite a while. And, no Terrell, there is nothing wrong with that at all.
So remember back when Bob's Morning After would have those fancy passing charts for Romo? Well we are going to bring them back for the upcoming season and would like to get your thoughts on them. The way they look, things you like or don't like. Any Suggestions are appreciated. We have come alongway from when these first started and are looking forward to see where these go.
I'm also going to use this post as the official FAQs. It will be periodaclly updated, as the charts evolve.
Q: Whats the purpose of these charts?
Well that depands on what you're looking for, but I guess a simple answer would be to see patterns. This is stricly about the pass. We are not interested in rushing, or yards after the catch.
Q: How do I read the charts?
From bottom to top. The paths are charted by point of release to the point of catch or incompletion.
Q: What do the different colours mean?
Blue=Completion
Red=Incompletion
Black=Interception
Yellow=Touchdown
Q: Is there a line of scrimmage?
Not neccisarly. Part of the charts is to show the distance thrown, so for ease of seeing that we have the LoS at the zero yard line. That way you can see how far the quarterback dropped back and the point to where he threw.
Q: What program do you use to chart all this?
None, there is no magic wand or fancy program that does this. I sit with my computer and photoshop and stop and play every passing play.
Q: Is there a way to make the charts bigger?
Yes, just click on them and a new window will open with the larger version. I just make it small so they don't clog the blog down.
Thats all I can really think of off the top of my head. If you have any questions just leave a comment or message me on twitter.
The worst thing you can do in sports (or life) is to assume that you can achieve different results by doing things the same way. Sometimes, you have to get creative and take a chance. Sometimes, you have to risk angering those around you by doing just this. And the Stars have spent the last few weeks allowing many important pieces to leave for the unknown waters of change.
Since then, the Stars have also said farewell to Adam Burish and Sheldon Souray by either not bidding for their services or not bidding enough. Burish will go to San Jose and bring grit to a team that never has enough. Somehow, that attribute was worth 4 years on his new contract, and for that, we must tip our hat to Burish and his new side and thank him for his service. There was just no way the Stars were thinking 4 years ($7.2 million total) would be required for a guy who spills his guts on the ice when he plays, but because of his style, his body cannot seem to hold up over the long season. He is a useful piece, but in the Stars position, you just cannot overpay for 3rd and 4th liners. Young pieces like 1st rounder Scott Glennie cannot be blocked if you want to grow this franchise properly - from within.
Also, early in free agency, another divisional rival snagged a piece off the Stars pile. Anaheim put a 3-year deal on Sheldon Souray for $11 million dollars. Here is a player that I really thought the Stars should have tried to extended before we got to free agency, and if I what I am hearing is correct, the Stars could have likely had him for 2 years. But, they were dug in on the idea of a 1-year deal was what his health and age dictated at this point and their strategy was going to be to let him test the market and if he ended up back here for 1-year, so be it. But, if another team was willing to go to 2 years, then they can have him. Well, the Ducks went to 3 years, and also have the advantage of being in Southern California, a place Souray calls home in the offseason and his daughters call home all year round. He must feel he won the lottery on this deal.
But, from the Stars standpoint, they must have an idea how this is going to work out personnel wise on the blue-line. I thought that Souray was just what the doctor ordered for this blue-line. Strong, abrasive, and intimidating play from their defense. Souray brings that when most of the players at the top of their defense-corps is under-sized or not that style of player. Souray was. And although he was not 28 anymore, this is maybe the biggest current void on the team. A top tier defensemen who can play all night and set the tone that the team will not be pushed around.
Then, the biggest loss of them all, and a guy who could easily be described as the heart and soul of the Dallas Stars during this 4 years swing through the hockey desert, Steve Ott was traded away last Monday in a big, risky deal for Buffalo center Derek Roy. The risks range from the fact that Ott was your most valuable trade chip to the fact that Roy is on the final year of his deal and requires shoulder surgery. This deal could be a stroke of genius or it could blow up in the face of Stars GM Joe Nieuwendyk. But, we will have plenty of time to talk about Roy and his potential to replace Ribeiro and really assist this franchise moving forward.
What bothers me a bit about the exit of Ribeiro and Ott is that in both cases, there seemed to be components of each player's game that did not sit right with the Stars management team that ultimately helped facilitate their exits or, at least, justify them. In the case of Ribs, we had the long shifts and the indifferent demeanor at times. With Ott, it seemed to bother the suits that he would take very poor penalties at times and at other times would play as if he fancied himself a goal scorer and not the abrasive piece of sandpaper that put him where he was in the league. In both cases, it seemed to me to be part reality and part the natural review of any player that you see every night. In sports, and especially in hockey, the warts of our own players drive us crazy to a point that we trade them away to players that also have warts, but those are warts that have yet to be discovered locally.
This is where I think back to the Stars organization over the last several years, and maybe this entire last decade. A decade ago, we saw the end of the Ken Hitchcock/Bob Gainey regime. And with the possible exception of Doug Armstrong, that was the last time that the organization had men at GM or coach who were thought of as confrontational personality types that would take on any and all veteran personalities to get them to conform to the style of hockey that they demanded. Since then, they have hired very capable men at both spots, but it seems that almost all of them have fallen into the "Player's coach" bin. Guys who understand what the modern athlete goes through and how they must be dealt with. Guys who "treat their players like men" and give them the benefit of the doubt. I submit that this sometimes doesn't work. Remember, Hitchcock dealt with Brett Hull and Mike Modano. Two very strong personalities that loved to do things their own way because of their immense talent. And yet, when playing for Hitchcock, they would eventually get in line and do what was needed after the occasional confrontation.
When I hear that Ribs takes longer shifts than he should, then the next logical question to me is, "who is going to yank his tail off the ice until he conforms?" So, I guess the question moving forward when it comes to the Stars is whether or not they have the pieces in place in the management team - coaching staff and personnel department - to make veteran millionaires accountable and to shape them with paint-peeling yelling sessions if necessary to play the style of hockey that is demanded to find success.
This isn't about Ott and Ribeiro. This is about Marty Turco and Mike Modano and Pierre Turgeon and Jason Arnott and Bill Guerin and on and on we go. The Stars are doing a great job of developing their youth, but are they doing a great job of controlling their most expensive assets at the very top of their roster? And when a millionaire doesn't play right, trading him should not be the answer. Getting him to conform to how you need him to play is.
The NBA doesn't work this way. Coaches aren't allowed to go all "Bill Parcells" and drive a team over the finish line by going to the whip with bag skates, healthy scratches, and rants and raves. But the NHL does. This is a league where the players dig as hard as they can dig night after night, but sometimes you need a head coach or a general manager that scares the players back into line.
I am not saying Nieuwendyk and Glen Gulutzan cannot be that duo. I think quite highly of both men and their hockey acumen. But, what I am saying is that all last season, whether they were yelling and screaming behind closed doors or not, Ribs never seemed to change his ways. Now, they have cut off their nose to spite their face and we will see in a few months if it works. I am just saying that moving forward, I hope they can change this cycle that has been here long before either arrived of generally shipping out a group of veterans for a team failure, moving the rest of the organization up the conveyor belt, and repeating the cycle. At some point, they have to be willing to create an environment that Hitch used to create, where players were afraid to fail lest they catch his wrath at the next practice. I need Jamie Benn and all of the other kids developed in a way that includes tough love when it is called for.
One more item about the group we have talked about today; Burish, Ott, and Souray in particular. I don't think enough is being made with regards of how the NHL works these days and how the Stars have lost almost all of their intimidation and edge. The "tough to play against" trait of the roster has been replaced by skill guys who have hardly any bully to their game. In fact, Derek Roy and Ray Whitney are very small players who need protection. Jaromir Jagr is certainly not going to push anyone around. And they weren't brought here to do so. But, when their was a scrum after a whistle last season, Ott and Souray were always there. Burish wasn't far behind. The question then becomes, who is going to make this team tough? Aaron Rome will bring some of that. Vernon Fiddler will do his part. So will Mark Fistric and Eric Nystrom. But, overall, especially in a division that contains the champions who are quite large and physical, the Stars are a rather small team that teams may attempt to throw the body at all night long. Who keeps Jamie Benn from being targeted? Who helps Roy and Whitney have space to work their puck skills? This is a very important topic that we will learn about as the year goes on. You can believe that Stars' opponents right now think that they will steamroll over the Stars with checks and hits. Dallas needs to prove that won't happen.
I hate to see Steve Ott leave. He was a great pro and a guy who would battle for the team whenever called upon. He now goes to a Buffalo organization that had a promising season until they were bullied into submission by Boston. He will fit right in and be a fan favorite as he was here. In exchange, the Stars have the skill they lacked last year by acquiring players who can put the puck in the net. The special teams should be better and a power play goal should be within reason. But, did they get the balance right?
This is a summer of transition for the Stars and they have certainly made some key adjustments. I look forward to seeing how it all fits together. Next time, we will spend more time on all of the new faces and combinations.
Well, it certainly wasn't the best time to take a vacation. But, in a city this crazy about its sports, there might not be a great time to do so. You just schedule your family time and grit your teeth when big sports news breaks. It always does.
But, this year, it was not just big sports news. it was the biggest. It seems to affect the future of the Dallas Mavericks moving forward for years to come.
It was the news that the Mavericks big plan - the one in which they made all of their decisions last offseason to essentially break up the NBA Champions - failed. There is no other way to sugarcoat or rationalize it. The plans they had simply failed. Deron Williams did what I thought he would do all along - take more money and an extra year, and stay put in his new home in Brooklyn.
Williams claims it was a difficult decision and that he was leaning towards Dallas until the final hours, but in the end, he did the predictable thing in sports - he took the most money and made the easy decision to stay where he was. And there are the Mavericks, holding their financial flexibility and cap space looking at each other with eyes wide open.
In the meantime, the old guard continues to leave town. Jason Kidd and Jason Terry, two of the most important pieces of that dream 2011 season, have left the city for eastern destinations. Terry joins Boston and says that the Mavericks didn't even contact him about figuring something out. Kidd looked like he was to stay for an amazing 3-year term, but opted for New York.
The book is officially closed on the dream. There will be no reloading on the fly. There will be no Plan C. Yes, the Mavericks will field a team, but at this point, it appears that the team will be one that will surely finish with a losing season and most likely find themselves smack in the middle of the 2013 draft lottery - a most unlikely place to be for this franchise.
So, what happened?
As I have been away, I have been able to read all sorts of theories on Mark Cuban and his lost gamble. It is so ironic to see Mark in this position for those of us who have talked to him continuously over the years for a number of reasons. He has said a number of times that if you sit at a bargaining table and you cannot tell who the sucker is, then it is you. I never thought he was that guy, but now, given that he surrendered Tyson Chandler for the CHANCE at Deron Williams, I am starting to wonder. My backup explanation that I had used for 7 months was that surely Cuban only takes that gamble if he knows something the rest of us don't know. Perhaps Williams gave him a verbal assurance somewhere along the way that when Williams and Dwight Howard unify for their super team, it will be in Dallas. And perhaps, Cuban took that to the bank. Either way, as the Mavericks now see their names popping up with players like a waived Elton Brand, the weather has turned awfully fast.
In March, I wrote a column about the parallels of the reinvention of the rock band U2 and the Mavericks plan. If you haven't read it, or don' t remember it, I encourage you to look it over and see what many of us saw coming. The Mavericks did what U2 did as they moved between where they were and where they want to go; Bono said, "in between, you have nothing. You have to risk it all." The Mavericks did risk it all, but it appears all they have to show for it is another year in no-man's-land. They risked it all, and for the time being, all it appears they are going to get for it will be photoshopped Mavs jerseys with the name "Cap Space" on the back.
I said it then, I said it all year, and let me say it again. They screwed up on the Chandler decision. They had the defensive player of the year in their hands at 29 years old. He was going to play 4 seasons under his New York contract that would expire before his 33rd birthday. He was finally a proper complimentary center to Dirk and they let him go. They took the 2 birds in the bush over the bird in their hand and now understand the wisdom of that cliche. They will never admit they got it wrong, but I continue to suggest that if Deron Williams saw Dirk and Tyson waiting for him, maybe, just maybe, the Mavericks go all in and Deron wishes to join them in a sign and trade.
But, that didn't happen. Instead, Tyson plays with Kidd, just a few miles from where Deron plays with what we assume will be Dwight Howard before the next season begins.
I admire that Mark Cuban hasn't made things worse by grasping at straws in a Hail Mary desperation counter to this bad news. He appears to be dug in under the premise that you don't keep doubling down your bet when you lose. Take it like a man, lick your wounds, and live to fight another day.
There is a major issue with that strategy, though, that has inspired the panic all along amongst anyone who loves and follows this team. It is the truth that the prime of Dirk Nowitzki continues to expire. We don't know how long he will be a dominant star in this league, but with each passing year, the odds get worse that he has much left. This may be the principle reason Deron Williams stayed away. If he was going to form an alliance with another star, why would he do it with a guy who may only be a difference maker for another year or two? Surely, joining Howard would be a 5-year arrangement and the odds would increase.
But, now, the truth is, it won't largely matter if Dirk is in his prime anymore. If he is surrounded by rookies, spare parts, and guys willing to take one year deals, he will never be in situations where a superstar's prime is tested. In fact, we wonder if Dirk would do a very un-Dirk like thing in the coming weeks or months and ask to be moved on so he can still find a competition level that is championship level. Who would blame a guy who has given everything to this franchise, including taking less money in his last deal to facilitate the plan to add players to this mix. If the Mavericks were to fully rebuild, they could get plenty for Nowitzki, and although public reaction would not allow them to bring up the idea, it would sure seem that might be the proper strategy if this summer turns out to be as big a disaster as it seems at the moment.
Which brings us back to Cuban. So many people have weighed in on whether or not he has changed. What happened to the maniac owner who would stop at nothing to win titles? If ever there was an out-of-control spender who the other owners would fear, it was Cubes, himself. Who is this alter-ego who points at the CBA and stresses sound spending practices? And why are the Nets, Lakers, Knicks, and others reading the same document and not caring about the bills because they are chasing titles?
So, is he selling the team? Has he lost his edge? Is he trying to get money back that he foolishly threw away in the last decade? Is he morphing into Tom Hicks? These theories have all been run up the flagpole in the last few days by various voices.
I don't think so. I think, that maybe, Cubes got a little overconfident and cocky about what he was capable of. Maybe the Championship gave him beer muscles and he thought he could try a Jedi mind trick on Williams to take less money to come home. That, of course, was after he sent Chandler packing and thought he could make Lamar Odom work. He truly thought he was the smartest guy in the room, and that did not pass inspection.
In the end, I think Cuban is the same Cuban we saw with steam coming out of his ears in April as his team was being swept out of the playoffs. I think now that he is taking on true criticism from his own fan base for one of the rare times of his tenure, his resolve and obsession will grow. He will figure out a way to get back to the top. He is not wired to count profits. He plays to win.
But, in the meantime - which could be years, Nowitzki's chance expired. As has everyone on that 2011 team. The gamble did not pay off, and now we will never know if that same group would have been able to valiantly defend their title. Unlike most champions, they were never allowed to defend what they had won.
And, that, is a real shame.
But, the milk has been spilled. You cannot un-spill it. And crying will not take you far, either. You simply go get a mop and clean up the mess. And make no mistake, it appears the next little while is going to be a real mess around here.
Young Cubs' slugger Anthony Rizzo got the call up this week and hit his first home run in the jersey on Saturday as I pulled the trigger on the camera. I consider the photos to be lucky, but cool enough to show off.
Click on either to enlarge.
The Following is the 6th in an 11-part weekly series throughout the summer that will focus on the eleven plays that shaped 2011 for the Dallas Cowboys. Every game, about 130 actual plays happen and over the course of a season that number can exceed 2,000. But, we have selected 11 and will pick one each week and break it down from standpoint of "X's and O's" and see what we can learn looking back. The plays are not ranked, simply presented as the season unfolded. We hope you enjoy.
"Clearly, they are confused out there" - Cris Collinsworth
One of the biggest issues for the 2010 Dallas Cowboys was a complete inability to stop the big play. So, the plan for 2011 was to not change players on almost any level defensively, and to change out the defensive philosophy from the Wade Phillips 3-4 defense to the Rob Ryan 3-4.
The Rob Ryan 3-4 is a more complex defense that attempts to utilize all resources to cause confusion, chaos, and the ability to cause game changing plays for the defense. When run properly - with the proper personnel - it is a rather tried and true scheme that has worked well across the NFL. Of course, the Cowboys tried to take 10 starters off the worst defense in the history of the Dallas Cowboys and simply change the scheme and hoped for much better results. They learned the hard way and spent the spring of 2012 trying to find what amounts to as many as 5 new starters for this upcoming season.
In 2011, Ryan tried to install his defense without the benefit of the offseason program. We will never know how badly that set things back, as some players and teams were affected by the lockout and others seemed to do just fine (see: Cam Newton) with the limited schedule for installation and learning. What is odd about the 2011 Cowboys defense is that it defied conventional wisdom. Most observers expected the transition to the defense of Ryan to go slowly. There would be early growing pains, but as the season went along, he would be able to install things on the fly and ultimately by Thanksgiving everyone would would grasp their responsibilities with great ease.
And yet, everything went quite the opposite. In September and October, the Cowboys defense was actually outperforming expectations. In every game, the defense had done its job to put the team in a position to win. They played well enough to win in New York, but were sabotaged by a poor QB decision. They won in SF and against Washington. They played very well against Detroit until the offense turned a 27-3 lead into a 27-17 lead on two throws. By the time the defense took another snap, they were back on their heels. Then, a very difficult test in Foxboro went very well. The defense scratched and clawed and did a great job over 60 minutes, but couldn't stop Tom Brady late. Still, they outperformed all expectations in that difficult spot. The next week, they dominated a feeble Rams side and were among the league leading teams in many defensive metrics. Including a major downturn in the number of explosive plays conceded.
In 2010, the Cowboys surrendered 69 explosives (plays of 20 yards or more). That number was high above the league average for playoff teams of 54. If they wished to get in the playoff mix, they would need to knock their per game average down by 1 explosive per game. From 4.3 per game to around 3.3. And through those first 6 games, they had done even better, surrendering just 19 explosives in 6 games (3.2 per game).
But, their 7th game of the season would be their first battle against one of the two elite teams inside their division. They would play the Eagles in Weeks 8 and 16 and the Giants in Weeks 14 and 17. Then, and only then, would the Cowboys know their true ability to deal with those teams that would stand in their way. Sadly, the findings would be quite disconcerting.
By the end of 2011, the Cowboys would have improved in the big play defense, dropping from 69 to 64. In fact, the league went the other direction, with the average number of explosives conceded by playoff teams rising from 54 to 64. This, one might note, was a direct result of the putrid defenses in New England and Green Bay that were not bad enough to keep either team from making the playoffs, but might have been the reason that both were beaten ultimately by the Giants in the playoffs. They conceded absurd numbers of big plays, but had offenses that were able to cover for them for most of the year.
Regardless, the Cowboys still gave up too many big plays. Of the 64 conceded, 57 were through the air and 7 on the ground. This might explain the offseason initiative to overhaul the secondary. One might argue the pass rush needed help, too, but nobody can debate the premise of finding two potentially elite corners in the offseason if you have given up 57 passes of 20 yards or more in 1 season.
Which leads us back to the NFC East. Perhaps the most troubling number when digging into the 2011 defensive season were the issues that the Cowboys had with the division. In 6 games against the division, the Cowboys gave up 33 explosives. In the other 10 games against everyone else, they only allowed 31. That tells us a few things. Outside of the division, the Cowboys played some rather weak offenses. But, inside the division, they were sliced and diced by the Eagles and Giants in a scary way. The Redskins put up 8 explosives, the Giants had 12, and the Eagles put up 13.
And no night was a bigger disaster than the Sunday Night in Philadelphia on October 30th. Realizing that this series is about "11 plays that shaped 2011", it would be nice to identify one play from this debacle. But, the truth is, the Eagles didn't have one play that decided the game. They had as many as they wanted.
You might recall that Rob Ryan had some pretty inflammatory things to say about the Eagles in the build-up to this game. And therefore, many of us rubbed our hands together to see what sort of Ryan family game plan he would unleash in his Dad's old city. But, what we saw was one of the worst Cowboys performances in a long time. The Eagles had a season high 7 explosives. They had 10 different plays of 18 yards or more. They knocked out the Cowboys in the 1st Quarter, and by halftime, the game was in garbage time.
And the worst part? The Eagles were doing much of their damage by running the same plays over and over again. Now, remember that their were only 7 running explosives all year against the Cowboys. And yet, 3 of them, were on this night in Philadelphia. And all 3 of them, were to LeSean McCoy who was breaking off a 30-carry night for 185 yards. And, all 3 of them were on the EXACT same play.
Let's look at it:
Play #1 - 12:57 1st Quarter - 2-7-Phi 46
The Eagles are running a zone play to the right. They will get a right slanted block from every member of their offensive line. DeMarcus Ware will be unblocked - or so he thinks - as LeSean McCoy will take the handoff from Michael Vick. The Cowboys in pre snap are seeing the Eagles set up for a strong-side run right, too. And therefore you can see a safety sneaking down to cover the tight ends. Clay Harbor - 82 is in motion on the right side and the plan will be for him to go all the way across the line and get the unblocked Ware in a trap situation. (Reminder: Click on any picture to enlarge)
The play hinges on 2 things happening for the Eagles to get anywhere. 1) - Clay Harbor has to get to Ware before Ware destroys the play. But, the premise of not blocking him is to encourage Ware to "take the cheese" and to in some ways take himself out of the play by heading too far into the backfield. Whether he realizes it or not, Ware is the only defender who is in any position to protect the cutback if McCoy doesn't follow the action of the offensive line to the right. And 2) - Jason Peters, the Eagles LT must move Marcus Spears out of the lane. If Spears can hold his ground or defeat Peters, this play won't get much. But as you begin to see in this photo below, Spears is certainly not close to standing his ground. Just looking at the hash marks, you see how easily Peters is able to truck Spears and build a wall for McCoy to see. Now, Ware is upfield and Harbor hardly touches him, but he doesn't have to, since Ware has over-pursued and taken himself out of the play. And look at all of the green grass for McCoy to navigate.
By the time of this 3rd picture below, McCoy is by himself looking at both Cowboys safeties as the only players left on the field. The rest of the defensive line was plowed out of the picture and now he will grab an easy 21 yards on a play that they would run again very soon.
Here is the exact same play, a bit later:
Play #2 - 3:37 - 1st Quarter - 1-10-Dal 36
OK. It is one possession later. The Eagles have the Cowboys on their heels and confused. And the Eagles are going to come back to that very same play to see if the Cowboys have a better plan. The only difference from a Philadelphia standpoint is that there are not double tight ends stacked to the right. Instead, Brent Celek-87 is the single TE and his motion to the right sets the trap again. Dallas, seeing a more balanced formation, does not overload to the offense's right, but instead is ready to bring Abram Elam as a blitzed to the outside of DeMarcus Ware. So, the Eagles will purposely not block Ware again - but the trap will be headed his way. Meanwhile, there is no accounting for Elam. He is unblocked and will have a chance to destroy this play. Both Ware and Elam are circled in blue. Remember, zone play to the right, with McCoy looking for a seam to cutback left. He takes one step with his offensive line, and then darts off the back shoulder of the left tackle.
So, remember the two keys for the Eagles. 1) - Celek must get a piece of Ware and have leverage so that Ware cannot get back to the inside in that split second where McCoy is arriving with the ball, and 2) - Peters vs Jason Hatcher. If Hatcher can stand his ground, the play cannot cut back. But, Hatcher is plowed out of there with no effort whatsoever, and there is enough room for the Queen Mary on this play. Elam totally takes himself out of the play by guessing it might be an outside running play. When it is a quick hitting run up the middle, the Cowboys are doomed.
In the photo below, I have circled Elam and Jason Hatcher. I just want you to see the body position of Hatcher as his back is facing the ball carrier. He is totally turned around. The middle linebackers follow the offensive line's movement to the right, but the ball carrier is not. That is a very bad combination for the Cowboys. And, once Ware is taken out by a tight end again, with Elam further outside taking himself out of the play, the Cowboys have called a run blitz that attacked the wrong spots. And McCoy is doing nothing more than taking candy from a baby.
Sensabaugh will catch him before the goal-line, but not before a 34 yard run.
So, the Cowboys have taken the bait twice. Surely, the Eagles will run this play again before the night is over. Will the Cowboys be more prepared?
Play #3 - 4:11 - 3rd Quarter - 2-18-Phil 34
Again, this is the same play, however, this time, the Eagles will flip it and zone left with the tight end kicking out to the right side to get an unblocked Anthony Spencer.
The Eagles again have double tight ends to off of their left tackle. So, the Cowboys are lined up to deal with that. In fact, if the Cowboys don't cheat to that side, there is likely a call at the line of scrimmage to run the play left. Then, if the Cowboys do shift, they come back with this cutback. We are also reminded on this play how middle linebackers get their keys on where a play is headed. They always take hints from the offensive line and most specifically, from the guards. So, you can see from watching Keith Brooking-51, how tempting it is when you see the entire OL zone blocking to the left to take a few steps in that direction, because we always anticipate that the running back is going to follow his line. But, when the Eagles show us that it is all a deception game to get the Cowboys to over-pursue, Dallas just cannot resist the urge. See Spencer, again, unblocked.
Spencer sees Clay Harbor coming to get him again and turns his body to keep contain. Jay Ratliff is easy caved in and cleared out of the way by the right guard. The right tackle goes to get Bradie James. This leaves Brooking (inside the blue circle above) as the unblocked man who must get McCoy or the Cowboys are in trouble.
Brooking is there, but with too much open space around, it doesn't take a quick player like McCoy much effort to leave a slower LB like Brooking in the dust. This, in a few frames, demonstrates the Cowboys hopes that Bruce Carter's speed can make a real difference moving forward. Look how far back Brooking is as McCoy is now 10 yards down field, and spots the 2 Cowboys safeties another 10 yards back. No wonder he had 185 yards. We just showed you 3 carries where he found 77 yards on the same play without much resistance at all.
The Cowboys did not have much trouble stopping big runs all season. Remember, these 3 plays are bad, but they are 3 of the 7 explosive runs all year long. This was a horrid night, but it did not repeat all year.
But, the bigger issue goes back to the NFC East. If you are the Cowboys, you simply must look closely at the 6 games you play each year against the division as the biggest priority. Entering 2012, you have the Giants and Eli Manning who routinely score in the mid 30's against you. You have the Eagles, who have so much speed at the skill positions that you simply must adjust and find equal speed to stop them. And now you have the Redskins, who appear to have a QB who actually has more explosive physical tools than Michael Vick. When you 3.1 explosive plays per game to teams outside the division, but 5.5 explosive plays per game against divisional foes, you can understand the initiative to change or die.
Just as we have seen time and time again, you have to survive your division if you wish to go further. The Cowboys were 2-4 in the NFC East in 2011 and were blown out in their two prime time road dates at Philadelphia and at New York. These games are huge and the organization cannot step forward without handling this business. On these plays, the Cowboys were simply out schemed and out manned. The defensive ends were caved in 3 times in a row. The LBs and DBs offered no support. And the Eagles, like a 6th grader playing Madden, just called the same play again and again.
I trust this game is talked about quite a bit inside Valley Ranch when they were making changes this spring. Let's hope they made enough of them.
There is some coping mechanism inside us all that tries to move on when a favorite goes away. Especially when it comes to our teams and our players. Invariably, one of our teams is going to make a move. This move is going to be grounded in logic and part of a bigger plan that will possibly make sense around the next corner. However, this move is going to take away a player that you really liked over the years and always gave an effort that you enjoyed. But, that coping mechanism kicks in. And before long, you buy the rhetoric and the explanations from the team and even though you enjoyed his work, you now are on to the next one.
Well, this morning, I am not quite ready to move on and look ahead. This morning, I wanted to write about one of my favorite players to roll through town, Mike Ribeiro, a few days after we all found out he would continue his career in Washington with the Capitals after the Dallas Stars pulled the trigger on a trade to send him away.
Oh, sure, I know all about the warts of Mike Ribeiro. Ribs was one of the worst face-off centers of this generation. For all of his brilliance, the simple fine art of taking a face-off was lost on him. In fact, of the 42 players to take at least 5,000 face-offs in the last 5 seasons, Ribeiro finished 42nd in percentage won (45%). Olli Jokinen and Eric Staal were also worse than 47%, but only Ribs fell below 46%.
He became famous for his long shifts. And the more vital the shift was from an offensive standpoint, the longer the shifts were. It was something that drove fans and media crazy to know that Jamie Benn was watching most of the power play from the bench as Ribs turned a 60 second shift into a 85 second shift if the Stars had the man advantage. Then, with 30-35 seconds left, Benn would pop out as opposed to splitting the 2 minute advantage equally down the middle. It may not have been his fault that Benn was not out there with him, but the shift length became an issue that was never properly sorted last season. In all, 211 minutes on the power play dwarfed Benn's 163. It wasn't all an issue of shift length, but it certainly started there. And when the Dallas Stars tied a modern era low for least number of power play goals scored in a full length season (just 33), then that nit was going to be picked quite a bit.
Those two points will be brought up repeatedly over the next few months to anyone who wants to lament his exit; as will his issues in his own defensive zone and his enjoyment of the night life. But, for me, watching #63 since the 2006-07 season has been great. I have always enjoyed his game and his ability to simply be himself. He scored 407 points in 461 games for the Dallas Stars, and like so many before him, he did it his way. He was skinny, but he was certainly not meek. He would play his heart out and if you challenged him, he would play harder with an edge of anger.
He played through a number of injuries that certainly could have ended his night. His battle this past winter through the puck in his face in Nashville followed by the knee injury against Edmonton in back to back games showed what he was all about. It reminded us of his previous battle scars including the throat scar from a trip a few years back in New York.
But, the biggest attraction to Mike Ribeiro for me was just his love of the beautiful side of the sport. It might have had plenty to do with growing up in a soccer family, where his father perhaps assisted Mike in the creative side of making a play effective and pretty at the same time. He had a knack for creative play that was not taught at the youth levels of hockey and is still not widely loved by the coaches who run the NHL. You could feel the collective cringe on the bench when he would unveil his newest shootout move that included a fair amount of mustard on the hot dog. He might score and make the goalie look silly or not score and make himself look silly, but he was not simply going to fire a wrist shot like everyone else. He just couldn't do it that way.
He might have been a player in Dallas that needed to be coached hard. Once upon a time, the Stars had a similar soul in Brett Hull, but they also had the fiery combo of Bob Gainey and Ken Hitchcock demanding that any sort of free spirit be sewn into the fabric of the team concept and expectations. To Hitch, 45 seconds did not mean 46 seconds, and if he was coaching Ribs, perhaps the shift issues and the decision making would have been molded differently. We will never know.
But, Marc Crawford and Glen Gulutzan were not the type to take on a veteran who needed the occasional scolding. So, they perhaps were never able to get him to understand the difference between a personal and team decision. He was set in his ways and they were not up for the battle of wills, so some of the problems might have not been addressed.
All the while, Ribs would be out there trying to help the cause. His creativity and drive were always on display. His overtime winner against Calgary this year will be the goal that will be the most enduring memory (six shades of sexy were the words of Razor Reaugh), but there were 50 just like it over his time here.
He will be replaced by someone else, and chances are that that new player will always mind the coach and likely won't stay out as late. But, the hockey fan inside of me who loved the creative flair that Ribeiro put out there will always have a spot for him on my team. He made hockey fun and reminded us that trying something with the puck is sometimes a better idea than dumping it into the corner and getting a responsible change. I know the coaches don't want to hear it, but those of us who don't want robots playing hockey very much appreciate it. There are very few players like Ribeiro out there, and I am happy to have watched him here for 6 years.
I will miss the haircuts, the quotes, and the clothes that only he would attempt to wear. I will miss the shootout attempts, the bad attitude when he was challenged, and the behind the back, through the legs, and who knows where else artwork that he would conceive and then execute.
It may not make hockey sense to say this, because he was not without weaknesses in his game, but I will greatly miss having #63 around anymore. They missed the last 4 years of playoffs with him, so his jersey will likely never see the banners, but I will always remember his contributions to my hockey enjoyment.
And now, losing Brad Richards and Ribeiro down the middle and the 150 points that came with them in a typical season, the Stars try to figure out where they are getting their offensive creativity from moving forward. They certainly have their work cut out for them.
The offseason officially begins for Joe Nieuwendyk, Bob Gainey, Glen Gulutzan, and Tom Gaglardi today. All of the talk, speculation, and expectations will have to head to the back-burner in exchange for some actual actions. We knew, after watching the Stars for the last several seasons that they are in desperate need of some fresh talent. And now, they go about trying to find it at a reasonable cost.
In the weeks ahead, there will be plenty of time to speculate about the veterans that will be added. Earlier in the week, I spent time discussing the possibilities that could emerge as early as this weekend in the form of trades. The Stars are not necessarily flush with talent to trade away, but from talking to the principle members of the staff over the last several months, it is clear that anyone over the age of 27 that can be moved and can help the group below the age of 27 grow moving forward will be considered. THat is not to say that those players would bring a king's ransom, but let us all expect that the boldest moves of the summer may come in the form of trades. And those trades could happen on draft weekend.
However, assuming the Stars will not make our jaw drop this weekend by pushing in all of Gaglardi's chips into the middle of the table on Rick Nash or Jordan Staal, Brandon Dubinsky or someone else who might not be on the radar, let's spend our time this morning trying to figure out who the 1st Round pick of the Stars will be by the end of the night.
They have the 13th pick in the 1st Round as of this moment. I say that because with an additional 2nd rounder, it is conceivable that they could move up if the right players starts dropping, and the team has also suggested that they might not be against heading the other direction if they think they can aid their farm system with an additional 2nd rounder by moving back if they think there is not much left to pick through when they are picking.
Nail Yakupov will most likely go 1st. It seems in the past few days, Columbus and defenseman Ryan Murray have looked like a fit at #2. Milwaukee-born Alex Galchenyuk, Yakupov's junior teammate at Sarnia, looks like he will go #3 to Montreal. And after that, there doesn't seem to be much consensus that can be found.
The only sure thing about the NHL draft in 2012 is this: After the top 3 picks, there are no sure things. We have some idea who might go where, but if you are the Stars at #13, you have to plan for any and all scenarios. Then, provided that you have 13 players that you like and have them ranked against each other in mock drafts in your own war-room in the days before the big day, you are prepared to have whoever is left on that list.
Now, everyone can talk about taking the best player available, but that generally is more of a cliche than a practice. Because when push comes to shove, a team has to look at what they currently have in their system and adjust accordingly. And that is why this year, the Stars are very aware of the fact that they have many capable wingers coming along and a decent supply of defensemen. But, there is a major shallow area at center ice for the organization from the top of the Stars' roster all the way down to the bottom of the organization. If all things are equal, the team wants a center. The trouble is, there are not many centers in this draft. Those that are there are in most cases not considered cinches to be "Top 6" centers. So, just because you need centers doesn't mean you should reach rather than get one of the many defensemen who appear to be the deepest supply at the top of the draft.
If the Stars are to look at the odds, they should figure out which defenseman they like the best. Because odds are that a few of those Top 13 will fall to them, and of those, odds suggest they will be blue-liners. Good news there, because while the Stars have plenty of defensemen, they can always use more candidates for the "Top 4" slots on their roster. It would be a pick that makes plenty of sense, especially if there are some power play QBs available or big men who can play 25 minutes as a potential shutdown partner with last year's 1st Rounder, Jamie Oleksiak.
As for wingers, there is one winger in particular I think they could potentially go with at #13, but otherwise, I don't expect they will look there. The exception is big Thomas Wilson. Since every organization in the NHL is looking for the next Milan Lucic - a giant winger who destroys defensemen and drives the net - Wilson could fill a spot nicely. But, beyond WIlson, I fully expect that we can merely sift through the defensemen and centers and build our own scenarios for how things play out.
Let's do it:
Top Tier (This group has no chance of getting to #13 - So let's not spend much time on them):
The list of players that will go here include Winger Nail Yakupov, Defenseman Ryan Murray, Winger Filip Forsberg, Center Alex Galchenyuk, and most likely, Defenseman Jacob Trouba. Trouba may or may not fit in the top 5, but the odds of him getting to #13 are remote. I think Dallas would happily accept any of these players with open arms into their organization, but that is a rather irrelevant conversation so let's allow the really poor teams to enjoy their new hopes of the franchise and move on.
Next Tier (This Group is likely to be gone before #13 - but, in this group, there are a few the Stars might target):
Here we find D Matt Dumba. Dumba is very unlikely to be in the mix at #13, but I sense that if he were to fall into range of the Stars, perhaps he would be worth a move up. He really brings a skill set that excites many teams and has those intangibles as well. Around #8, if he makes it that far, the phone call might be worth making. Also in this group is the very talented Mikhail Grigorenko, the Russian center who lit up the Quebec league last season. His motor is a big question and the KHL is another, but if you want a center who could come back to haunt you if you pass him by, this would be the guy. He seems too cliche to end up in Washington, but if he gets to the right spot, it could make all sorts of sense. I am just not sure Dallas is that place. Either way, Grigorenko is the guy with the widest range in this draft. He could be in the Top 5 and he could slide to #20. He is a fascinating study that must be the proper fit.
Tuevo Teravainen is a Finnish winger and wil likely be in this next group, as is D Morgan Reilly and D Griffin Reinhart. It is important to note that putting this group together consisted of 5 names. The Stars would be quite excited about Reinhart or Reilly, I imagine, and some people think Reinhart will be there when #13 arrives, but in the last few weeks, I have seen him as high as #4 in mocks from experts. Reilly is coming off a shortened season with ACL issues, but by many reports, like Galchenyuk, it doesn't look like a 2011-12 injury is going to affect their position much. If Reilly or Reinhart slide, the Stars would dance.
The Stars Tier (Players that could be in the mix at #13 - stacked in the order of preference):
C Radek Faksa D Cody Ceci D Derrick Pouliot W Thomas Wilson D Hampus Lindholm
As you can see, I don't believe the Stars will dig much deeper than this. I know there are other names that will be available such as the Finnish Dman Olli Maatta, the Latvian Center Zemgus Girgensons, or Center Brendan Gaunce, but I don't get the feel that the team agrees that they are of the caliber of the 5 players above. If they end up with any of those 3 players, I think it would be in a trade back in the draft.
So let's briefly discuss the 5 players that are in play.
C Radek Faksa - 6'3, 203 - Czech Republic - 2 Way Center who played at Kitchner last season. He appears to be a player who can really be what the Stars need at center, and unlike Grigorenko, does not have questions about his drive or his motor. In fact, he has been pursuing his NHL dreams since he left home at 11 years old. And with Gainey and Nieuwendyk looking for 2-way centers who can handle both ends of the ice, this might be the type #2 center who anchors your roster for years to come. Not sure he will be around at #13, but if he is, this is the guy.
D Cody Ceci - 6'1, 205 - Canada - All scenario defenseman who played in Ottawa for the 67's. His offensive potential is special as well as his ability to skate with size. He can get physical and he can play on both special teams. He could conceivably be ready to play in the show in 2012 and has tremendous upside. Maybe a tier below the best in this draft at the position like Murray, Trouba, and Dumba, but there would be nothing wrong with leaving the draft with Ceci (Pronounced "C.C.")
D Derrick Pouliot - 6'0, 181 - Canada - Played very well for the Portland Winterhawks last season with 59 points and is the type of offensive defenseman that everyone is looking for. Seems like an ideal QB for the Power Play and will take a bit of time with development, but could really be another blue chipper to get excited about. Just as slick as it gets with the puck. I don't think he is quite the total player Ceci is, but the depth of this draft is on the blue line in the first 15 picks, and there would be no issues with adding Pouliot to the stable.
D Hampus Lindholm - 6'2, 185 - Sweden - This guy shot up the boards with an absurd performance at the NHL Combine with endurance recovery levels that were off the charts. He is a very talented and has a complete game that would make him a very low risk gamble at #13. You can sleep rather easy that he will be a regular for you and solid in many areas.
W Thomas Wilson - 6'4, 195 - Canada - Ah, yes, the attraction like bugs to light of hockey teams to a true power forward. It makes us occasionally squint and wonder about a player who could help the team physically impose their will on the opponent. When is the last true punishing forward the Stars had? Bigger, stronger, and willing to throw the body around? I am waiting. The point is that Wilson is still growing into his body. His skating is a work in progress. But, the feeling that he has a chance to be that type of player is why he is a fast riser as draft day approaches. Lucic? Bertuzzi? These are bold names to throw around, but I believe he is very much on the radar and perhaps the one winger that the Stars would consider jumping on if he gets to #13. Buffalo is a likely spot for him at #12.
Basically, in summary, if the Stars leave with Ceci, Faksa, Reinhart, Reilly, or even Pouliot I would be excited. If they somehow work their way to Trouba or Dumba, I would be over the moon. Wilson and Grigorenko would be interesting but a wait and see.
Now, let's see how it all goes tonight. It will be most interesting what the Stars do with their first bold strike of the summer.
