Tuesday, September 13, 2005

Tuesday Blog

Perhaps by now, you have grown accustomed to my love for the simplicity of my favorite football statistic. Yes, we go on and on about this and that in the NFL, but in reality, the entire sport boils down to the simple question of turnovers. I have been tabulating this stat since 2003, when Bill Parcells, in one of his very early press conferences challenged the media to “look it up”, that the winner of the turnover battle nearly always wins the game. This is regardless of talent discrepancy, home field advantage, yardage, or anything else.

In week 1, here are the winners of the games, and their turnover margin:

NE +1, KC +2, Jax +5, Cin +1, NO +1, Buf +5, Wash -1, Pitt +4, TB +3, Mia E, SF -1, Dal +1, NYG E, Det +3, Ind +4, Atl E

Week 1 results = 11-2-3 85% (only SF and Wash beat the Turnover game, and Washington was beating the Bears at home).

85% is right in line with the season results of 2003 and 2004:

In 2003, the NFL was 165-40 (80.5%) when winning the turnover margin. In 2004, the NFL was 168-41 (80.3%) when winning the turnover margin.

Find me another stat that comes to close to being this convincing, and I will stop talking about this. But, until then, I continue to be astounded at how consistent this is. Remember, this could be a -1 from a 1st quarter fumble. It doesn’t matter. Nothing matters in the sport as much as takeaway/giveaway.

If you are curious, in 2004, the Cowboys only won the turnover battle 3 times! That tied them with the Rams as having the lowest number of games in which they won the turnover battle. Which team had the most games of winning the margin? New England – 12 times. Anyway, the Cowboys were 2-1 in those 3 games last season. They are now 1-0 in 2005.


Falcons beat the Eagles …Vick was so/so with his arm, great with his legs at times…But, the guy who impressed me was another Hokie (I can be a VT homer at times) DeAngelo Hall. Dude can play a solid corner, and then tell you all about it…


Chargers not happy that Cowboys fans took over their stadium


As Dallas quarterback Drew Bledsoe knelt at game's end and the players from both sidelines began to mill toward midfield, the chant intensified.

"Cowboys! Cowboys! Cowboys!"

It was not the first time there had been those out-of-place noises during Sunday's game at Qualcomm Stadium. When Quentin Jammer's interception was called back, a good number of cheers mixed with the jeers. Same thing when the Chargers failed to convert a third down or when the Cowboys scored.

"I was kind of surprised," Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson said.
It did not go unnoticed in the executive suite either.

"Somehow we've got to come up with some way to stop it," said Chief Operating Officer Jim Steeg. "One of the challenges is how can we on this side of the building do a better job to help the other side win games."

It was troubling to Steeg that even at the home opener, with the Chargers coming off a 12-4 season and for a game that was part of a multigame package, so many opposing fans (15,000-plus by his estimate) would show. And that many of them would be sitting in Chargers' season-ticket holders seats was even more disconcerting.

"We've got to instill pride in our fans," Steeg said.


Adrian Peterson is not going to class ….

Will Limas Sweed’s big catch launch his career?

Tech WR Robert Johnson celebrates, is punished


Considering Johnson's athleticism, it wasn't surprising that his sky-walking jump into the stands at Jones SBC Stadium ranked as one of the more memorable touchdown punctuations in Big 12 history.

"I told my teammates before the start of the season whenever I got my first touchdown I was going to do the 'Jones Leap.'" Johnson said. "Then I did it. I was just having fun."

Even though Johnson's celebration cost him a 15-yard celebration penalty and the wrath of coach Mike Leach, he didn't worry about the repercussions.
Leach "rolled" Johnson along with the other penalized Tech players after Sunday's practice. The dizzying length-of-the-field punishment requires offenders to make 15 50-yard full-body rolls — one for each yard of their penalty — after practice finishes.

"After I jumped in the stands, he told me he would roll me in the dust," Johnson said, chuckling. "I don't think I'll do it again."



This is quite the pee-ing match between Boston media dudes …Enjoy…

p1 Blogger enjoys Saints helping the hurricane discussion

Battlefront II coming soon

Fonz replaced by Chachi on Arrested Development

Hey Now. Aerobics time


What do your icons do at night?

And now, a funny email:


hey, regarding the caller earlier who was asking about drew bledsoe in the shotgun. if you've seen the burger king commercials they've been running lately, where the creepy burger king guy is superimposed onto the football player in the highlight, there's one with bledsoe as a buffalo bill and he's in the shotgun (then he throws an interception and the burger king guy - who i believe is superimposed onto deion sanders - runs it back for a touchdown.) perhaps parcells has seen this commercial and has decided that it would not be a good idea to run bledsoe out of the shotgun.

Jeff Hardin


And finally, this from the Cowboys Message Board The Ranch, which you can find listed on the right side of this blog under message boards. The guys there discuss every conceivable detail about the Cowboys, and yesterday, someone tabulated the results when each CB was thrown at. I found it very interesting:


THROWN AT Anthony HENRY
8 yards to Parker
interception, intended for Caldwell
5 yards to McCardell
incompletion to McCardell
5 yards to Parker
11 yards to McCardell
incompletion to Peelle
incompletion to Parker
incompletion to Parker
17 yards to McCardell
incompletion to Caldwell
33 yards to Parker
incompletion to McCardell
TOTALS: 6-for-13, 79 yards, 1 interception

=================

THROWN AT Terrence NEWMAN
18 yards to Parker
incompletion to McCardell
incompletion to McCardell
incompletion to Parker
16 yards to McCardell
9 yards to Caldwell
incompletion to Caldwell
TOTALS: 3-for-7, 43 yards

===============

THROWN AT Aaron GLENN
incompletion to Parker
interception, intended for Parker
TOTALS: 0-for-2, 0 yards, 1 interception

===============

TOTALS FOR ALL THREE: 9-for-22, 122 yards, 2 interceptions, 0 touchdowns (21.4 passer rating)


That is good research.

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sometimes, I like to wear jeans to sleep in. I do not like to wake up with my hands in the pockets. Oh Well.

Anonymous said...

If I wanted fat lady vomit, I would go to Gordons site and watch him delete it later.

Anonymous said...

I hate to say it, but I couldn't figure out iBig Mac looked arrogantly "nice" or nicely "arrogant" on the show Sunday night. I can't figure out which one.

Someone needs to post pic's of Big Mac's performance so we can do a "Fake or Arrogant" voting bit.

I hate the P1 and I hate myself

Anonymous said...

So who was covering McCardell when he scored those 2 touchdowns?

Anonymous said...

I didn't think Big Mac was near as bad as the total overhype, under delivery of the Cowboys pregame show.

I heard Jub's keys to the game twice. Mickey was over statting everyone to death, Richie Anderson was almost void of content unless Bob prodded him. I'll give Richie a pass since this was his first time, but serious improvement is needed--Richie knows this game and this team....tell us about it!!

The worst part, was that poor Sturminator sounded like they'd yanked his personality. No drops, no sarcasm (except when Bob made fun of Jub's keys to the game...the first time).

Yes, I know that pre-game is a beating, but they need to let Bob and Richie cut up, have fun and give HSOs. Jub should have been BARBECUED by Sturminator for his over obvious keys to the game:

Win the +/- on turnovers?
Score points?

Uh....ok Jub, thanks for that!!

Anonymous said...

AttnyDan = 100% correct!!

I didn't want to dogpile, but pre-game was a little bit of a beating.

I'll give it one more week to see if they can't get something more entertaining than a statistical symposium.

P1 Mike, Denton

Anonymous said...

True! How WAS covering "old man Keenan" on his two scores. Is this research designed to make the corners look good by selectively assigning those two scores to the safties?

This research needs research... sounds flawed. This is why it's hard to have football stats like this.

Anonymous said...

By the way, both TDs were thrown to the right side...

It is possible that those TDs were in a zone when the safety was supposed to cover... or when Ware was supposed to chip the WR at the line (which by the way, how PHing dumb was THAT!?!)

Anonymous said...

This sounds like a Job for Mickey, "the Stats Man".

He whipped me pretty good on Sunday's pre-game too.

I agree that Bob should've "livened" up the show and that Richie needs some work. But I still think that the entire pre-game was very, very, dry.

I hate the P1

Anonymous said...

Adrian Peterson has already missed that much class time? The semester is only 3 weeks old!!!

Maybe Byron Hanspard is his tutor.

Anonymous said...

when one team score more points than the other - 100% since the beginning of time.

Anonymous said...

Hey Bob,

You've been claiming that when a team wins the turnover battle, even by just 1 turnover, the winning percentage is 85%. I don't think that's true. The reason is that you are scewing the results by looking at all games, including the games where there is a much bigger turnover differential.

If all you are looking at is winning the turnover battle by 1, then the record this week was 4-2. 66% is still impressive, but not exactly 80%.

And always remember that 90% of stats are made up.

Anonymous said...

Bob,

Former NFL kicker Toni Fritsch died at the age of 60. Media outlets nationwide are erroneously saying that he kicked for the Cowboys. They must have asked the sports guy in the next cubical for his career bio.

Disco.