Monday, January 25, 2010

Final Playoff Seeding Numbers

- Home Field Advantage -

This table simply tracks the success or lack thereof of higher seeds and home teams in the NFL Playoffs. The AFC and NFC Seeds columns show which teams advanced to the AFC and NFC Championship Games. Then the "*" shows who made the Super Bowl from each conference.

Lots of trends in here, including the #1 seed in the NFC has advanced to the Championship game in 18 of 20 years since the playoffs expanded. The only 2 teams not to get there were the 2007 Dallas Cowboys and the 2008 New York Giants.

YearHome RecordAFC SeedsNFC Seeds
19908-21* vs 21 vs 2*
19918-21* vs 21* vs 2
19925-52 vs 4*1 vs 2*
19938-21* vs 31* vs 2
19948-21 vs 2*1* vs 2
19957-32* vs 51* vs 3
19968-22* vs 51* vs 2
19976-42 vs 4*1 vs 2*
19988-21* vs 21 vs 2*
19997-31 vs 4*1* vs 2
20008-22 vs 4*1* vs 2
20017-31 vs 2*1* vs 3
20028-21* vs 21 vs 2*
20036-41* vs 31 vs 3*
20046-41 vs 2*1* vs 2
20054-62 vs 6*1* vs 5
20068-23* vs 41* vs 2
20075-51* vs 32 vs 5*
20085-52* vs 64* vs 6
20097-31* vs 51* vs 2

Table Tutorial


(* = Super Bowl Team)

Most compelling piece of information I found here? 14 of 20 years (70%), in the NFC, the championship game has been the #1 seed vs the #2 seed - proving the bye week and home field mean something.

Also, the NFC went 5-0 this season in home games. Repeat. Every single home team won their game in the NFC playoffs.

In the AFC, 1 vs 2 it has happened only 7 times (35%). Not sure what that means other than the fact that maybe the NFC has had better top seeds that make it less likely to have upsets - like the Cowboys and 49ers. On the other hand, maybe the AFC has had many playoffs where top to bottom the margin is very close. No clue, but this year, the home teams in the AFC were 2-3, with the Colts being the only home team to win a home game - and they did it twice.

Now, with our Super Bowl, we finally have another match-up of #1 v #1. #1 NFC has played #1 AFC only twice before, way back in 1991 (Washington vs Buffalo) and 1993 (Dallas vs Buffalo).

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