Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Playoff Stat Update

Turnover Battles for the Playoffs


Winner
+/-
Loser
DAL
+3
PHI
NYJ
+2
CIN
BAL
+2
NE
ARI
+2
GB



IND
+3
BAL
MIN
+3
DAL
NO
+2
ARI
NYJ
+1
SD



NO
+4
MIN
IND
E
NYJ





Totals for Playoffs
9-0-1, 100%
                        
The winning team won the turnover battle in every game of this postseason (except the Colts tying the Jets). This is not a likely result, but it's probably more understandable than you might think. Consider it: For a team to win a game despite losing the turnover battle, they usually have to amass a considerable advantage in total yards. In the playoffs, the teams are much closer in talent, making it much harder to gain that advantage. They are so closely matched that it is not surprising that the game would come down to a few key plays and it is further not surprising that those plays would mostly be turnovers.

100 Yard Rushers


Name
Team
Opp
Yards
W/L
Cedric Benson
CIN
NYJ
169
L
Ray Rice
BAL
NE
159
W
Felix Jones
DAL
PHI
148
W
Shonn Greene
NYJ
CIN
135
W





Shonn Greene
NYJ
SD
128
W





Adrian Peterson
MIN
NO
122
L




Totals for Playoffs


4-2, 67%

During the regular season, running backs turned out 100-yard performances at about a 22% rate (unneccessary explanation you might want to skip: there were 32 teams playing in 16 games each, so 256 actual games, since the teams were playing each other, but 512 opportunities for a team to produce a 100-yard rusher. Running backs capitalized on that 112 times. Thus the 22% rate). There have been 10 games so far in the playoffs with six rushers, so that rate is considerably higher than the season average. I don't think I have a definitive answer to explain all of this. Some of it is probably just small sample size. Another element is probably that the bad running teams that are unlikely to have a 100-yard rusher have been eliminated. It's possible to make the playoffs with a bottom-of-the-barrel running game, like the Colts did, but it's difficult. Everything else you do has to be pretty stellar. Still, those don't totally explain the rate nearly tripling. It's funny how sports happen.
As to the win percentage, it's right in line with the regular season. Reassuringly so.

300 Yard Passers


Name
Team
Opponent
Yards
W/L
Aaron Rodgers
GB
ARI
423
L
Kurt Warner
ARI
GB
379
W





Peyton Manning
IND
NYJ
377
W
Brett Favre
MIN
NO
310
L


Totals for Playoffs


2-2, 50%

We again have the same effect as with the 100-yard rushers. 300-yard passers occurred at about a 19% rate in the regular season, while they jumped to a 40% rate in the playoffs. Not as much as the rushers, but still by quite a bit, and I think for the same reasons. Great players carry their teams to the playoffs, and once there, they continue to be great. That manifests itself in racking up excellent performances at a higher rate. It just reminds us all how awesome the playoffs are. Cherish them, friends.

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