I wrote 2275 words on Tuesday night for my weekly column here at SBNation – Dallas. And then, things changed on Wednesday morning. So, with that in mind, let me offer you another few hundred at the very top. And then, starting with the Mike Modano stuff, you will find the originally intended content. That will also explain how World Cup stuff is covered twice. I would apologize to you for too much soccer talk in my column if I was truly sorry. But, I am not. The World Cup has been that good.
USA ------------------------------------------------
I hope you didn’t miss the moment.
By that, I mean, I hope you have been following the entire generation of US Soccer. The moment, was merely a moment. But, the story is really over a decade in the making.
You see, France 1998 was a very humiliating time for US Soccer. We were beaten badly and dismissed as the 32nd best team in a 32 team field. It was clear that while we were now clearly better than our neighbors in Canada and Guatemala, we were not close to being a consistent threat to play with the big boys in the World Cup.
I hope you saw Landon Donovan back in 2000 play in the Summer Olympics and debut with the senior national team as such a young teenager.
I hope you woke up at 3:30 in the morning in 2002 to watch our boys upset Portugal and then ultimately knock our rivals, Mexico, out in the knockout stage. It was wonderful.
I also hope you were excited and then devastated by the 2006 World Cup. We obviously did not finish the Bruce Arena era properly. 1 goal scored? No wins? Surely we were way better than 2006 showed. What happened to the promise of Donovan and DaMarcus Beasley? And who was this new star from Texas, Clint Dempsey?
I hope you have followed the legacy of the US goalkeepers. From Meola to Keller to Friedel to Howard. Somehow, we grow goalies like few other countries. If only we could find defenders of the same quality.
I hope you have followed to qualifiers. All of those amazingly rewarding and gutting nights in El Salvador, Honduras, Chicago, and Salt Lake City. And then another trip to Azteca Stadium where we took the lead last summer, only to concede to the Mexicans in the final moments.
I hope you know about the Davies and Gooch injuries that we thought might derail our train. I hope you know about 5-0 in the Gold Cup Final. I hope you know about the Confederations Cup dream run last summer that started with that miracle against Egypt. I hope you know about the coach’s son who might be the real heart beat of the team.
If you know about all of this, then you fully comprehend why those 11 seconds on Wednesday morning brought tears to our eyes. You understand, and maybe you were right there with us.
This was not about beating Algeria. This was about Bob Bradley’s job. And Landon Donovan’s legacy. And US Soccer’s reputation. For the first time since 1930, the United States put out a soccer team that could win it’s group in the World Cup. For the first time, the US gained a result in the final game of group play.
So, if you are not sure why people are going on and on about the 11 seconds that it took the ball to go from Tim Howard to Landon to Jozy to Clint and back to Landon and into the net, please know this: It was about the decade-long journey. And it cannot be fully explained in an easy sound bite.
The dream may come to a screeching halt very soon, but we will always have the pride of these last 3 matches. The fact is we are not ready to win a World Cup as a nation. But, we have come so far. And you should not miss the rest of the journey.
Mike Modano Vs. The Stars -------------------------------
I must be honest; there are times on a given sports issue where bias seems to take over a bit. I think any journalist who claims that bias does not affect them is delusional or dishonest. Every last one of us has likes and dislikes in every facet of our life – and this forms are bias. We can fight it, and claim we call it like we see it; but, even then, the desire (even if it is subliminal) to cut someone slack or to crack down harder on another is always there.
That entire pretext brings us to the top story on my mind today: The case of Mike Modano vs the Dallas Stars. I hoped for months that a showdown was not going to ensue this summer, but son-of-a-gun, it appears here for all to consider.
So, Mike Modena, the obvious generational face of the franchise (and perhaps eternal face of the franchise) is near the end of his career. In fact, some would argue that the time has already come where it is not necessarily a given that he is an obvious choice to be in the line-up 82 nights a year. I don’t agree, but it is can at least be argued that if Brad Richards is your best center and Mike Ribera is your 2nd best, and Jamie Benn might be your best sooner than you think – well then Mike Modena makes little sense as a 4th line center that is supposed to be there to add physical strength and grit. In theory, he can provide someone fine play as a top 6 forward who gets PP time and plays with skill guys, but the fact is that the Stars greatest strength is his position.
What is interesting to note here is also the fact that the Stars have said that they want to be way tougher to play against down the middle of the ice. That is to mean that even though they have great talent down the middle, they are not exactly the type to physically dominate you. Richards is full of talent but far more offensively minded. Ribeiro is as finesse a center as there is in his own end, and Modano was never too far from being in the Lady Byng hunt himself. Benn, meanwhile, is trying to figure out the position for the first time in his life – but at the NHL level. Imagine his learning curve. And I haven’t even mentioned Tom Wandell.
Again, this all says that Modano might not be a fit.
But, how do you slam the door on your icon? In a public opinion poll, it is clear that Stars fans would side with Modano in any battle between the two sides. But, Joe Nieuwendyk isn’t here to make you feel warm and fuzzy. He is here to attempt to dazzle you with a winning team.
He is also here to not live in the vortex of 1999 where the Stanley Cup memory is this franchise’s greatest strength and greatest weakness. It brings a legacy to build upon, but it also keeps people in a time machine of memories, causing them to want to reassemble that team again. But, you cannot go back to 1999 no matter how bad you want to.
So, enter my bias. I love everything that Mike Modano stands for. I love the fact that he is as down to earth as a millionaire athlete that is married to celebrity wife can be. I love the fact that he has shown class at every turn and played his rear end off.
But, I also appreciate this franchise’s desire to move on. At least, I assume that Nieuwendyk is looking to move on. He cut the cords with Marty Turco last month, and now I am thinking he is planning the same with Modano. Thanks for the memories, but now we are moving along. Could Modano help the team this year? Sure. But, will he be a regular contributor for the next contending Stars’ team? Doubtful.
They want to forge a new identity. So how do they sell this?
They don’t. If they want to move on, they will lose the PR battle at the moment of truth, but then you and I will tune in and wonder if they are any good. If they are, then we will forget the summer that they said goodbye to Turco and Modano. If they are not any good, then the streak grows to 3 years of no playoffs.
Bottom line: this is not a good team. For us to argue hard that they should keep it together is asinine. I am not saying Modano is the problem, of course. But, I cannot with a clean conscience ask Nieuwendyk to rebuild the team – but he has to keep Turco, Modano, and Jere Lehtinen, too. Where do we draw the line on Modano? For those of us who would love to see him again next season, I would have to wonder if you would endorse an arrangement where Mike can play as long as he wants? What if he wants to play 2 or 3 more years? What if he wants to play long after he becomes a very marginal NHL player?
I love Mike. I really do. But, given the obstacles facing the Stars already, (Read: Hicks, Tom) I don’t think it makes any sense for us to put parameters on how Joe figures these problems out.
He already has no money to accomplish this mission ($45m). If he can take 09-10 salaries from Turco ($6m), Modano ($3.5m), and Jere ($2.5m) and use that $12m on younger, newer players, then maybe he has a chance. You cannot possibly be serious about asking him to use 27% of that tiny payroll on players from the past and still ask him to build something out of nothing.
Now, maybe I am reading this all wrong. Maybe Joe is trading Ribeiro this weekend, and Mike is his #3 center. I doubt it, but maybe.
It’s so hard to say goodbye to yesterday.
Too Much Sports? ------------------------------------------
I took my wife on a 15-year anniversary trip last week to Cabo San Lucas in Mexico. Now, being married to me for 15 years is surely not a treat for my high-school sweetheart, but since she made it this far, I thought 4 days on the ocean in one of the most beautiful places on earth would be a reasonable milestone reward for her.
Part of the plan, of course, is that since rarely an hour goes by without a sports thought racing through my head, that maybe, just maybe this trip could be mostly sports free. In fairness to me, when I planned the trip 60 days ago, the prospect of missing this weekend didn’t seem like that big a deal.
At least, not until we found out that we were facing a Game 7 in the NBA Finals on Thursday night. And let’s not forget a whole weekend of US Open Golf. But, since my wife has known me since I was 5 years old, and since we have been “together” since 1989, she could tell that twitch I had during dinner on the ocean on Thursday night. She had no problem assisting me in finding a rare television in Mexico that had that Game 7 on, and we watched that 4th Quarter together (the way any girl wants to celebrate on her vacation). It was very romantic.
However, there was one thing that we never imagined would be the sports highlight of the trip. It was earlier that day at lunch. An innocent pursuit of Fish Tacos on Thursday at the Cabo Marina resulted in us finding an outdoor dining area in the shade with a place that bragged as having “the best fish tacos in Cabo”. And you know something? They were very tasty.
But what really happened next was something special. The place started coming alive because on the two televisions at the restaurant, Mexico was playing France in the World Cup. And if you have never experienced a World Cup Match in a country that truly cares about he result, then I must say you are missing an experience that is singular.
The place was on edge for the entire afternoon. People stopped doing what they were doing. Nobody minded the service being a bit slow because the cooks, the wait staff, the customers, and the people passing by at the marina were too distracted with the fate of their beloved Mexican National team. As a friend of the United States national team, I have often felt that “El Tri” is our enemy (and they are), but for once day, I greatly appreciated my Mexican neighbors and joined their ranks as I was swept away in this amazing experience.
You would look down the marina to other places that were having the same experience. You would see that the non-stop vendors had actually stopped. Traffic had stopped. Radios blared the game. Every television was on the same channel. And every man, woman, boy, and girl was personally invested in the outcome.
Mexico beat France that day, and for the rest of the weekend, when I wanted to work on my Spanish, I simply brought up the result to any person I saw, and it brought a huge smile to their face.
Why did I want to share this with you this week? Well, as a person that has spent my entire life immersed in sports, I often have deep thoughts about how we do things in the USA and how other countries are different. This is not some sermon on why soccer is great, because I realize that people often feel about soccer like they do about religion. They think what they think, and if you try too hard to change their mind they are likely to hold a grudge.
Therefore, I am not here to sell you on soccer. I am here to wonder what the USA sports fan would be like if we put all of our energy into one sport and one team. All they care about is soccer. Seriously. Almost every person I spoke to don’t really have a 2nd favorite sport. It is soccer. Soccer. And, more soccer. Same in England, where I visit periodically, and find their sports section in the newspaper to be roughly 90% soccer.
Meanwhile, in the USA, we have football, baseball, basketball, hockey, golf, auto racing, and a dozen other sports. We have a full plate, and every person I know follows 3 or 4 sports fairly closely. In one sense, it gives us something to do at all times. In another sense, we have lost the meaning of being a die-hard fan.
If the Cowboys get eliminated from the playoffs in Minnesota, we are quick to move on because the Mavericks have a game tomorrow, and they are in first place! If the Mavericks get bounced from the playoffs, no problem! – the Rangers are just getting going. And when the Rangers run into a wall in the summer/autumn, the Cowboys are there again to pick up the torch and run. We do not mourn the death of another sports season very long before we latch on to our next “favorite sport”.
This allows for a few things: Constant sports stimulation and No period of sports mourning.
The first element is awesome, the second is unfortunate. You see part of being as obsessed about your team as Mexico is about their team is that this is all they care about. If they lose in this World Cup (and they will), they will want a coach fired and changes to be made and they will stew about this sad result for months and maybe even years. Yes, they also love their club teams, but cheering for Mexico is the ultimate.
Meanwhile, we love our teams – but they compete for our heart. I run into so many people who love the Longhorns or Aggies or Sooners or Red Raiders or Bears or Horned Frogs, AND then the Cowboys, Mavericks and Rangers. They love them all, and the order is based on which one has the best chance of winning it all right now. Deep down inside they likely have a true love (usually the Cowboys), but they now split their heart 4 or 5 different ways.
To achieve full sports happiness, they would have to pull off an amazing year where all 4 or 5 favorite teams won their respective titles at the same time! A completely impossible dream. Meanwhile, it would seem almost impossible to fully feel the depths of despair felt by the 1-sport people. Our allegiances are spread too many directions. We are sports polygamists. We chop our love in 5 directions. There is no way that you can feel the love, joy, despair, or defeat the same way when your heart is split 5 ways.
Listen, I love the USA sports scene. It has made me a fine living and It has made me obsessed with sports every day of the year – and every year of my life. But, for a moment last week, I looked around Mexico and wondered how different everything would be if we all only cared about, say the NFL or MLB. What if every other sport vanished? How would that change your obsession level over every Cowboys win or loss? Every signing and every morsel of news? It would be insane. And when the season ended, it would be like a relative died. You would mourn for months. You would truly know what being a die-hard is all about.
Monday, June 28, 2010
Thursday, June 24, 2010
The Morning After: USA 1, Algeria 0
I hope you didn’t miss the moment.
By that, I mean, I hope you have been following the entire generation of US Soccer. The moment, was merely a moment. But, the story is really over a decade in the making.
You see, France 1998 was a very humiliating time for US Soccer. We were beaten badly and dismissed as the 32nd best team in a 32 team field. It was clear that while we were now clearly better than our neighbors in Canada and Guatemala, we were not close to being a consistent threat to play with the big boys in the World Cup.
I hope you saw Landon Donovan back in 2000 play in the Summer Olympics and debut with the senior national team as such a young teenager.
I hope you woke up at 3:30 in the morning in 2002 to watch our boys upset Portugal and then ultimately knock our rivals, Mexico, out in the knockout stage. It was wonderful.
I also hope you were excited and then devastated by the 2006 World Cup. We obviously did not finish the Bruce Arena era properly. 1 goal scored? No wins? Surely we were way better than 2006 showed. What happened to the promise of Donovan and DaMarcus Beasley? And who was this new star from Texas, Clint Dempsey?
I hope you have followed the legacy of the US goalkeepers. From Meola to Keller to Friedel to Howard. Somehow, we grow goalies like few other countries. If only we could find defenders of the same quality.
I hope you have followed the qualifiers. All of those amazingly rewarding and gutting nights in El Salvador, Honduras, Chicago, and Salt Lake City. And then another trip to Azteca Stadium where we took the lead last summer, only to concede to the Mexicans in the final moments.
I hope you know about the Davies and Gooch injuries that we thought might derail our train. I hope you know about 5-0 in the Gold Cup Final. I hope you know about the Confederations Cup dream run last summer that started with that miracle against Egypt. I hope you know about the coach’s son who might be the real heart beat of the team.
If you know about all of this, then you fully comprehend why those 11 seconds on Wednesday morning brought tears to our eyes. You understand, and maybe you were right there with us.
This was not about beating Algeria. This was about Bob Bradley’s job. And Landon Donovan’s legacy. And US Soccer’s reputation. For the first time since 1930, the United States put out a soccer team that could win it’s group in the World Cup. For the first time, the US gained a result in the final game of group play.
So, if you are not sure why people are going on and on about the 11 seconds that it took the ball to go from Tim Howard to Landon to Jozy to Clint and back to Landon and into the net, please know this: It was about the decade-long journey. And it cannot be fully explained in an easy sound bite.
The dream may come to a screeching halt very soon, but we will always have the pride of these last 3 matches. The fact is we are not ready to win a World Cup as a nation. But, we have come so far. And you should not miss the rest of the journey.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
NHL Draft Column
Click Here to see the Story I wrote this week for DallasStars.com about this weekend's draft.
Or Don't.
Or Don't.
Monday, June 21, 2010
SB Nation Week 2
On Tuesday morning, June 15, the Rangers found themselves both 63 games into the 2010 season, and in 1st Place by the narrowest of 1 game margins. Nevertheless, the team’s mantra of “it’s time” seemed highly debatable at moments. Do the Rangers have the necessary depth and supplies to hold off a hard charging Angels squad that can never be fully counted out? It would seem their bench is extremely thin, their rotation is in need of help, and they still await Nelson Cruz’s health and Ian Kinsler’s bat.
But, through it all, they are 99 games from the finish line, in 1st place in a mediocre AL West, and feeling ok about their position – given the complete and total disconnect with any sort of resources that resemble purse strings or the help of an actual owner who could fix some of the issues that they have. If they only had an owner.
As you look at the Rangers’ season, it is clear what is making this team click. They entered the season with some gigantic question marks from a number of their players, but Colby Lewis, CJ Wilson, and Vladimir Guerrero, who were all thought to be gambles at their positions have paid off in large fashion. All 3 have not only met, but exceeded all reasonable expectations through 10 weeks of the season. If they continue these levels of production, anyone who follows this team will have no choice but to admit extreme delight.
Others, like the aforementioned Kinsler and Scott Feldman were expected to make runs at their 2009 seasons. So far, that looks like an extreme long-shot(although there are many who would suggest Kinsler’s 2009 wasn’t so hot, either – me, I think 30/30 is better than most years from 2B).
JOSH HAMILTON ------------------------------------------
But, I would very much like to visit a bit this week about the curious case of one of the most fascinating stories in 2010 that has perhaps not received the ink it deserves: Josh Hamilton.
Whenever I talk about Josh, I am left without feeling like I have enough evidence to know what he is. But, on Sunday, he surpassed 1500 ABs in his major league career, so it is time that we should feel like we know what to expect, right?
Well, as of about a month ago, it was often being said that the 2008 season of Josh Hamilton (32 HR, 130 RBI) – a season where he appeared to be making a MVP run for much of the summer – might just be a faded memory that will not be indicative of future results. His 2009 was far more pedestrian (10 HR, 54 RBI), and the gulf between those two seasons was the difference between a superstar and a guy.
So which was he? And how do you sign him to a contract? Is he an All-Star CF who can drive in 130 runs? Or is he an average LF who cannot seem to come up with a hit when you need it? Of course, when you add in the off-field adventures of J-Ham, which is certainly eventful enough that you could write a book about it (He did!), you can understand the lack of clarity on the issue of contract extension as it pertains to the Rangers decision which is looming.
Luckily for the Rangers, they always could fall back on the year-to-year arrangement that arbitration provides for those who lack service time. With 3 years of ML service time entering the season, the Rangers could actually do this all the way the 2012 season. They settled on $3.25m in 2010 (year 4) and are tickled with the results so far.
Below are Josh Hamilton’s statistics from Opening Day to June 13th of the last 3 years:
2008: 18 HR, 72 RBI .319/.362/.599 279 ABs
2009: 6 HR, 24 RBI .240/.290/.456 125 ABs
2010: 15 HR, 46 RBI, .309/.357/.576 243 ABs
Understanding that 2008 was insane (Josh had 72 RBI in 67 games), it is easy to wonder why more people are not talking about Josh’s great start to 2010. Especially, if you consider his April was nothing to write home about (.265/.351/.494), but May (.294/.322/.505) saw his HRs start to shoot up and his run production really soared. Then, his first 51 ABs in June (.412/.444/.863) have been positively silly.
The Rangers have problems with their roster and their line-up. But, if Cruz can get and stay healthy, and IF Vladdy and Josh continue what they have started, you can understand why Jon Daniels may feel like he could already have what he needs in the offensive department.
As for the question about what do you do with Josh with regards to an extension, I suppose you just continue to wait. But, if the ownership situation is resolved this season, and if he finishes 2010 with another season where his RBI totals require 3 digits, you might attempt to get some salary certainty for both parties this winter.
And then JD and Nolan can figure out what to do with the other contract issues on the horizon: CJ Wilson, Nelson Cruz, and of course, young Elvis gets closer to scaring Rangers’ fans to death with each tick of the clock on his service time. And if you think I am crazy, check back in 2 years if he is still not extended. But, that is another issue for another day.
NBA FINALS -------------------------------------
Win or Lose, I have come to the conclusion during these NBA Playoffs that the Boston Celtics are certainly worthy of mimicking. What a run they have been on, and the fact that the 2010 Finals so closely resemble the 2008 Finals where they drag the cocky and confident Los Angeles Lakers out into the deep waters and make them fight for every breath just makes you marvel at what their team concept is capable of.
Home Court advantage in Games 6 and 7 could prove to be the saving grace for the Lakers, but if they do pull the rabbit out of the hat, it will still not erase the Celtics imprint on all of our minds about what team basketball and a team attitude can accomplish.
In 2008, they swarmed and frustrated Kobe Bryant and finished a storybook campaign that most thought was far fetched when they assembled various parts from various places the summer before. Then, in a year where LeBron James was pretty much presented with the NBA Title back around Christmas, the Celtics made the Cavs cry for their mommies in 6 brutal games a month ago.
Doc Rivers seems to generally out-coach his opponents with his team that appears to contain 12 mentally-hard, physically-strong soldiers that do his bidding. The players that come off the bench may not possess the talent, but they certainly possess the resolve.
Of course, as a Mavericks’ obsessed observer of the 2010 Playoffs, I continue to look at the current evolution of the Mavericks and wonder how our Mavs could deal with either of these two teams over 2 weeks of fists, knees, collisions, and pain. Actually, I am pretty sure I know how they would deal with it: Not well.
So, is it the coach who puts this mentality in his players? Or is it the players who are just waiting to be assembled in such a way that you might think they are a pack of Dobermans? Of course, the answer is both. It takes both to be able to have the mental and physical resolve to survive this time of year. You cannot have a meek team that can survive the gauntlet. It requires a relentless spirit that will not be denied. And during an NBA Finals where we are wondering whether the Lakers have enough resolve, I fear to think what the Mavericks might do against Doc Rivers and his team.
Watch what the Celtics have done against Kobe Bryant. The greatest competitor in this generation of the NBA, Bryant has spent most of Games 3, 4, and 5 making shots from 20-25 feet away. Now, make no mistake, he has done very well, but this idea that he can get to the rim whenever he feels like it is just not true.
Meanwhile, Pau Gasol has been the real key. The Celtics have known that “Kobe will get his” and that they need to keep another player from dominating. Gasol has been riding shot gun with Kobe for a few years now, and some have mistakenly assumed that Gasol is a superstar. He, is not, of course, and the Celtics have proven this for much of the series. If you pound on him, he will show courage early, but can he stay relentless for 2 weeks? Or, if dealt punishment from Perkins, Garnett, Davis, and Wallace, would Gasol slowly but surely change his game?
Yes, he would. He has meekly faded out of these games. He has been bruised and battered and has changed these games in a negative fashion for the Lakers. At times, Kobe has looked like he is out there by himself. Ron Artest is not capable of helping on offense. Lamar Odom has proven he will disappear when you need him most. But, Gasol was the Lakers hope. And if the Lakers are to pull this trick off in Games 6 and 7 at home, Gasol will have to dig deep and find another performance inside of him that most think might be done for the summer.
Could Dirk survive a similar onslaught? Especially without Kobe’s help? Forgive me, but this NBA Finals has made me grow a bit more pessimistic on the immediate future of my favorite NBA Franchise.
Only the strong survive in this sport. And, strength might be the Mavs biggest weakness.
NFC EAST -------------------------------------
There are not many things that bring me great sporting joy after the NHL and NBA Finals wrap up in the sports calendar. Sure, the US Open is wonderful and Wimbledon will kill some time, too. The World Cup this year will make time fly, but most late June to Labor Day stretches are not very sports-awesome. I do enjoy baseball, but for me, it is generally contingent on the baseball in question being of great quality, and if you also follow the Rangers, you know how appetizing 14 games back on the 4th of July generally is.
I said all that to say this: There is some joy to be found in various NFL wise-men coming down from on high to share with us their initial thoughts about what teams we should fear when the greatest league in the whole wide world fires up for business in early September to give us roughly 22 straight weeks of pure sports joy.
And this week, the honor went to Rick Gosselin, he of the Dallas Morning News, who offered his first “Power Poll” of 2010. Even he admits it is early and that nobody had the Saints winning the Super Bowl last year (wait a minute, I did!!!), but it is always sure fun to see what the “Goose” thinks.
I invite you to read it all, but a quick look shows that he expects the Super Bowl in Arlington, Texas to contain the Indianapolis Colts and the Dallas Cowboys. That, of course, would be both a rematch of Super Bowl V, and the first time ever that a team has played a Super Bowl in their home stadium. This will make Jerry Jones explode with delight if his master plan actually comes to fruition. Wow, what a day that would be.
Then again, based on the idea that almost none of the June predictions ever come true, I suppose that would make this the ultimate kiss of death. Anyway, if you read on, you see that he has the Saints at #8 (as they will not be able to find the magic again on defense), The Vikings at #6 with all 22 starters back (Favre pending), and the rest of the NFC East looking rather weak: Giants #13, Eagles #16, and Redskins in at #25.
That is the first time in recent memory that I don’t recall seeing 3 NFC East teams in the Top 10, so if he is right, perhaps the Cowboys will be allowed a bit of breathing room as they attempt to get some home-field advantage in January, too; Thus, avoiding the Metrodome this year, and never having to board a plane once in the post season.
You and Jerry surely hope.
But, through it all, they are 99 games from the finish line, in 1st place in a mediocre AL West, and feeling ok about their position – given the complete and total disconnect with any sort of resources that resemble purse strings or the help of an actual owner who could fix some of the issues that they have. If they only had an owner.
As you look at the Rangers’ season, it is clear what is making this team click. They entered the season with some gigantic question marks from a number of their players, but Colby Lewis, CJ Wilson, and Vladimir Guerrero, who were all thought to be gambles at their positions have paid off in large fashion. All 3 have not only met, but exceeded all reasonable expectations through 10 weeks of the season. If they continue these levels of production, anyone who follows this team will have no choice but to admit extreme delight.
Others, like the aforementioned Kinsler and Scott Feldman were expected to make runs at their 2009 seasons. So far, that looks like an extreme long-shot(although there are many who would suggest Kinsler’s 2009 wasn’t so hot, either – me, I think 30/30 is better than most years from 2B).
JOSH HAMILTON ------------------------------------------
But, I would very much like to visit a bit this week about the curious case of one of the most fascinating stories in 2010 that has perhaps not received the ink it deserves: Josh Hamilton.
Whenever I talk about Josh, I am left without feeling like I have enough evidence to know what he is. But, on Sunday, he surpassed 1500 ABs in his major league career, so it is time that we should feel like we know what to expect, right?
Well, as of about a month ago, it was often being said that the 2008 season of Josh Hamilton (32 HR, 130 RBI) – a season where he appeared to be making a MVP run for much of the summer – might just be a faded memory that will not be indicative of future results. His 2009 was far more pedestrian (10 HR, 54 RBI), and the gulf between those two seasons was the difference between a superstar and a guy.
So which was he? And how do you sign him to a contract? Is he an All-Star CF who can drive in 130 runs? Or is he an average LF who cannot seem to come up with a hit when you need it? Of course, when you add in the off-field adventures of J-Ham, which is certainly eventful enough that you could write a book about it (He did!), you can understand the lack of clarity on the issue of contract extension as it pertains to the Rangers decision which is looming.
Luckily for the Rangers, they always could fall back on the year-to-year arrangement that arbitration provides for those who lack service time. With 3 years of ML service time entering the season, the Rangers could actually do this all the way the 2012 season. They settled on $3.25m in 2010 (year 4) and are tickled with the results so far.
Below are Josh Hamilton’s statistics from Opening Day to June 13th of the last 3 years:
2008: 18 HR, 72 RBI .319/.362/.599 279 ABs
2009: 6 HR, 24 RBI .240/.290/.456 125 ABs
2010: 15 HR, 46 RBI, .309/.357/.576 243 ABs
Understanding that 2008 was insane (Josh had 72 RBI in 67 games), it is easy to wonder why more people are not talking about Josh’s great start to 2010. Especially, if you consider his April was nothing to write home about (.265/.351/.494), but May (.294/.322/.505) saw his HRs start to shoot up and his run production really soared. Then, his first 51 ABs in June (.412/.444/.863) have been positively silly.
The Rangers have problems with their roster and their line-up. But, if Cruz can get and stay healthy, and IF Vladdy and Josh continue what they have started, you can understand why Jon Daniels may feel like he could already have what he needs in the offensive department.
As for the question about what do you do with Josh with regards to an extension, I suppose you just continue to wait. But, if the ownership situation is resolved this season, and if he finishes 2010 with another season where his RBI totals require 3 digits, you might attempt to get some salary certainty for both parties this winter.
And then JD and Nolan can figure out what to do with the other contract issues on the horizon: CJ Wilson, Nelson Cruz, and of course, young Elvis gets closer to scaring Rangers’ fans to death with each tick of the clock on his service time. And if you think I am crazy, check back in 2 years if he is still not extended. But, that is another issue for another day.
NBA FINALS -------------------------------------
Win or Lose, I have come to the conclusion during these NBA Playoffs that the Boston Celtics are certainly worthy of mimicking. What a run they have been on, and the fact that the 2010 Finals so closely resemble the 2008 Finals where they drag the cocky and confident Los Angeles Lakers out into the deep waters and make them fight for every breath just makes you marvel at what their team concept is capable of.
Home Court advantage in Games 6 and 7 could prove to be the saving grace for the Lakers, but if they do pull the rabbit out of the hat, it will still not erase the Celtics imprint on all of our minds about what team basketball and a team attitude can accomplish.
In 2008, they swarmed and frustrated Kobe Bryant and finished a storybook campaign that most thought was far fetched when they assembled various parts from various places the summer before. Then, in a year where LeBron James was pretty much presented with the NBA Title back around Christmas, the Celtics made the Cavs cry for their mommies in 6 brutal games a month ago.
Doc Rivers seems to generally out-coach his opponents with his team that appears to contain 12 mentally-hard, physically-strong soldiers that do his bidding. The players that come off the bench may not possess the talent, but they certainly possess the resolve.
Of course, as a Mavericks’ obsessed observer of the 2010 Playoffs, I continue to look at the current evolution of the Mavericks and wonder how our Mavs could deal with either of these two teams over 2 weeks of fists, knees, collisions, and pain. Actually, I am pretty sure I know how they would deal with it: Not well.
So, is it the coach who puts this mentality in his players? Or is it the players who are just waiting to be assembled in such a way that you might think they are a pack of Dobermans? Of course, the answer is both. It takes both to be able to have the mental and physical resolve to survive this time of year. You cannot have a meek team that can survive the gauntlet. It requires a relentless spirit that will not be denied. And during an NBA Finals where we are wondering whether the Lakers have enough resolve, I fear to think what the Mavericks might do against Doc Rivers and his team.
Watch what the Celtics have done against Kobe Bryant. The greatest competitor in this generation of the NBA, Bryant has spent most of Games 3, 4, and 5 making shots from 20-25 feet away. Now, make no mistake, he has done very well, but this idea that he can get to the rim whenever he feels like it is just not true.
Meanwhile, Pau Gasol has been the real key. The Celtics have known that “Kobe will get his” and that they need to keep another player from dominating. Gasol has been riding shot gun with Kobe for a few years now, and some have mistakenly assumed that Gasol is a superstar. He, is not, of course, and the Celtics have proven this for much of the series. If you pound on him, he will show courage early, but can he stay relentless for 2 weeks? Or, if dealt punishment from Perkins, Garnett, Davis, and Wallace, would Gasol slowly but surely change his game?
Yes, he would. He has meekly faded out of these games. He has been bruised and battered and has changed these games in a negative fashion for the Lakers. At times, Kobe has looked like he is out there by himself. Ron Artest is not capable of helping on offense. Lamar Odom has proven he will disappear when you need him most. But, Gasol was the Lakers hope. And if the Lakers are to pull this trick off in Games 6 and 7 at home, Gasol will have to dig deep and find another performance inside of him that most think might be done for the summer.
Could Dirk survive a similar onslaught? Especially without Kobe’s help? Forgive me, but this NBA Finals has made me grow a bit more pessimistic on the immediate future of my favorite NBA Franchise.
Only the strong survive in this sport. And, strength might be the Mavs biggest weakness.
NFC EAST -------------------------------------
There are not many things that bring me great sporting joy after the NHL and NBA Finals wrap up in the sports calendar. Sure, the US Open is wonderful and Wimbledon will kill some time, too. The World Cup this year will make time fly, but most late June to Labor Day stretches are not very sports-awesome. I do enjoy baseball, but for me, it is generally contingent on the baseball in question being of great quality, and if you also follow the Rangers, you know how appetizing 14 games back on the 4th of July generally is.
I said all that to say this: There is some joy to be found in various NFL wise-men coming down from on high to share with us their initial thoughts about what teams we should fear when the greatest league in the whole wide world fires up for business in early September to give us roughly 22 straight weeks of pure sports joy.
And this week, the honor went to Rick Gosselin, he of the Dallas Morning News, who offered his first “Power Poll” of 2010. Even he admits it is early and that nobody had the Saints winning the Super Bowl last year (wait a minute, I did!!!), but it is always sure fun to see what the “Goose” thinks.
I invite you to read it all, but a quick look shows that he expects the Super Bowl in Arlington, Texas to contain the Indianapolis Colts and the Dallas Cowboys. That, of course, would be both a rematch of Super Bowl V, and the first time ever that a team has played a Super Bowl in their home stadium. This will make Jerry Jones explode with delight if his master plan actually comes to fruition. Wow, what a day that would be.
Then again, based on the idea that almost none of the June predictions ever come true, I suppose that would make this the ultimate kiss of death. Anyway, if you read on, you see that he has the Saints at #8 (as they will not be able to find the magic again on defense), The Vikings at #6 with all 22 starters back (Favre pending), and the rest of the NFC East looking rather weak: Giants #13, Eagles #16, and Redskins in at #25.
That is the first time in recent memory that I don’t recall seeing 3 NFC East teams in the Top 10, so if he is right, perhaps the Cowboys will be allowed a bit of breathing room as they attempt to get some home-field advantage in January, too; Thus, avoiding the Metrodome this year, and never having to board a plane once in the post season.
You and Jerry surely hope.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Los Angeles Lakers Tattoo Report
Last Tattoo Report of the 2009-10 season takes us to the Los Angeles Lakers. Whether they win the NBA Finals against Boston has yet to be determined, but the defending NBA Champions will certainly not win the Tattoo title. After further review - Thanks to Alex - the Lakers have a respectable, but not special, 8 tattoos.
Unless my research is incorrect, those who I thought may have ink who apparently do not include Fisher (edit! Yes he does), Odom (edit! Yes, he does, too), and Bynum. I suppose they may have that hidden back tattoo, but I couldn't find a trace of it on the net.
As usual, my findings are done in a hasty search through google, so if I have something wrong, help me get it right.
Enjoy. And click on any "Y" to see a picture of their tattoos.
| Los Angeles Lakers Tattoo Roster | |
| Ron Artest | Y |
| Shannon Brown | Y |
| Kobe Bryant | Y |
| Andrew Bynum | N |
| Jordan Farmar | Y |
| Derek Fisher | Y |
| Pau Gasol | N |
| DJ Mbenga | N |
| Adam Morrison | N |
| Lamar Odom | Y |
| Josh Powell | Y |
| Sasha Vujacic | N |
| Luke Walton | Y |
| Totals | 8/13 |
Past Reports:
Boston Celtics 9/15
Phoenix Suns 5/14
San Antonio Spurs 9/15
Oklahoma City Thunder 2/13
Orlando Magic 9/13
Memphis Grizzlies 9/15
Denver Nuggets 9/13
Portland Trailblazers 8/14
Dallas Mavericks 6/13
Guy's Guide Classic: Good Old Days Syndrome - From June, 2000
The following is an essay from the Ticket "Guy's Guide" that I wrote back in June of the year 2000. It is the earliest recorded mention of "Good Ol Days Syndrome" that is in print. Hope you enjoy it, despite the fact that 10 years later, it appears a bit out-dated.
There is a sickness that has been taking over this world of ours. It was a sickness that struck our grandparents, our parents and will ultimately strike us all. G.OD.S. is not fatal, but it will make you bitter. Very bitter. Once G.O.D.S. strikes you, you will find yourself hammered with cynicism and the inner feeling that the happiest days of our planet happened already. In fact, once G.O.D.S. takes over your inner-being, unless you take the antidote--a large dose of reality--you may never be happy again.
For some, it is too late to be rescued from the pits of G.O.D.S. There is no reason for Bill Conlin, Dick Schapp, Mike Rhyner or Ken Burns to check the following list, for they are beyond all repair. But for others (40-somethings and up - Read On!) it is imperative you take the following seriously. Please take the following True/False test-
1. I believe the grass was greener and the sky bluer when I was a kid.
2. I believe that despite the fact all baseball players were white and from the United States, baseball was better in the 1930's than it is now.
3. I believe that despite the fact Babe Ruth was listed at 6' 2, 215, he was bigger than 6'5, 255, Mark McGwire.
4. I believe that despite the fact that it documented that there were very tense contract holdouts in the 1950s and 1960s, they all would have played for free because they loved the game.
5. I believe that despite the fact 5 teams relocated to new cities in 5 years in the 1950's, and despite the fact no team has relocated since your Red Shoed-Rangers in 1972, teams are not as stable as they were back in the Good Ol' Days.
6. I believe that back in the Good Ol' Days (1941-1964) even though the Yankees won 18 pennants in 24 years, baseball was more competitive than it is now when the same teams are in the playoffs every year.
7. I believe that after further review, Mickey Mantle actually could hit 800 ft home runs, Sany Koufax could throw 200 mile per hour and Cool Papa Bell could flip the light switch and hop in bed before the room went dark.
8. I believe the baselines were straighter back in the Good Ol' Days.
9. I believe that it was a better world when the players had no rights and were bound to the same penny-pinching owners their entire career because then they could live under a bridge after their career instead of being set for life.
10. I believe that every solitary member of the 1951 Yankees should have their own personal wing in Cooperstown.
Bonus Question: I believe that despite the fact the players were clearly slower, weaker and smaller, baseball was better because players knew how to lay down a bunt and hit the cutoff man every time!
How To Score Your Test:
Add up your true answers and refer to the chart below:
0 - 2 You have a firm grasp on life and although you enjoy what happened in the Good Ol' Days, you realize that the baseball that is being played today is both enjoyable and high quality. In fact, you'll go so far as to say the 1999 Yankees could beat the 1951 Yankees.
3 - 5 You are beginning to show signs of G.O.D.S. - You still enjoy sports today, but are starting to whip people around you with stories of the superior athletes from your childhood.
6 - 8 You have full-fledged G.O.D.S. running through your body. You are in serious trouble. You would pay incredible money to see Bob Cousy in his prime play against Gary Payton so that he could teach Gary a lesson. Your only hope is to begin to distance from the people who share your ideals and buy an encyclopedia to compare the heights and weights of the athletes then with the athletes today. One note - a pound is still a pound and an inch is still an inch (just like it was in 1955).
9+ You are either stuck in a time warp or you preside over the 3-7pm time-slot on Sportsradio 1310, the Ticket (or both).
There is a sickness that has been taking over this world of ours. It was a sickness that struck our grandparents, our parents and will ultimately strike us all. G.OD.S. is not fatal, but it will make you bitter. Very bitter. Once G.O.D.S. strikes you, you will find yourself hammered with cynicism and the inner feeling that the happiest days of our planet happened already. In fact, once G.O.D.S. takes over your inner-being, unless you take the antidote--a large dose of reality--you may never be happy again.
For some, it is too late to be rescued from the pits of G.O.D.S. There is no reason for Bill Conlin, Dick Schapp, Mike Rhyner or Ken Burns to check the following list, for they are beyond all repair. But for others (40-somethings and up - Read On!) it is imperative you take the following seriously. Please take the following True/False test-
1. I believe the grass was greener and the sky bluer when I was a kid.
2. I believe that despite the fact all baseball players were white and from the United States, baseball was better in the 1930's than it is now.
3. I believe that despite the fact Babe Ruth was listed at 6' 2, 215, he was bigger than 6'5, 255, Mark McGwire.
4. I believe that despite the fact that it documented that there were very tense contract holdouts in the 1950s and 1960s, they all would have played for free because they loved the game.
5. I believe that despite the fact 5 teams relocated to new cities in 5 years in the 1950's, and despite the fact no team has relocated since your Red Shoed-Rangers in 1972, teams are not as stable as they were back in the Good Ol' Days.
6. I believe that back in the Good Ol' Days (1941-1964) even though the Yankees won 18 pennants in 24 years, baseball was more competitive than it is now when the same teams are in the playoffs every year.
7. I believe that after further review, Mickey Mantle actually could hit 800 ft home runs, Sany Koufax could throw 200 mile per hour and Cool Papa Bell could flip the light switch and hop in bed before the room went dark.
8. I believe the baselines were straighter back in the Good Ol' Days.
9. I believe that it was a better world when the players had no rights and were bound to the same penny-pinching owners their entire career because then they could live under a bridge after their career instead of being set for life.
10. I believe that every solitary member of the 1951 Yankees should have their own personal wing in Cooperstown.
Bonus Question: I believe that despite the fact the players were clearly slower, weaker and smaller, baseball was better because players knew how to lay down a bunt and hit the cutoff man every time!
How To Score Your Test:
Add up your true answers and refer to the chart below:
0 - 2 You have a firm grasp on life and although you enjoy what happened in the Good Ol' Days, you realize that the baseball that is being played today is both enjoyable and high quality. In fact, you'll go so far as to say the 1999 Yankees could beat the 1951 Yankees.
3 - 5 You are beginning to show signs of G.O.D.S. - You still enjoy sports today, but are starting to whip people around you with stories of the superior athletes from your childhood.
6 - 8 You have full-fledged G.O.D.S. running through your body. You are in serious trouble. You would pay incredible money to see Bob Cousy in his prime play against Gary Payton so that he could teach Gary a lesson. Your only hope is to begin to distance from the people who share your ideals and buy an encyclopedia to compare the heights and weights of the athletes then with the athletes today. One note - a pound is still a pound and an inch is still an inch (just like it was in 1955).
9+ You are either stuck in a time warp or you preside over the 3-7pm time-slot on Sportsradio 1310, the Ticket (or both).
Sunday, June 13, 2010
SB Nation Week 1
The following is my first weekly column for SB Nation-Dallas that runs on Thursdays over there. I will archive it here, but you will always be able to check it out first over there, so check them out, too.
I must tell you that I am certainly excited to bring a weekly column to this new venture and to add my 2 cents on as many things as my column will hold every Thursday.
There are so many capable specialists for each of the local teams here, so I have to think that between their diligent hard work and things like this catch-all column, we will have you pretty well covered right here.
Each week, I want to grab 3 or 4 things that are rolling around in my head on the world of sports and put it out there for you. So, let’s get this party started right here:
COWBOYS ----------------------------------
One thing that will be extremely interesting to see this season is how the Cowboys decide to spend most of their snaps on offense based on personnel groupings. I absolutely think the Cowboys had an effective offense in 2009, but there were certain things it did far better than others.
For instance, there is no question that they were a better power running team than they were a wide open “Shotgun 3-wide” passing attack. And they knew it. Take those final 2 games against Philadelphia in consecutive weeks – 1 to win the division title, and 1 more to advance in the playoffs. In those 2 games to finish the season where the Cowboys offense looked wonderful in 2 blowout victories over the hated Eagles, the Cowboys went 3-wide on exactly 37 of 138 plays (26%). That may sound like quite a bit to you, unless you consider that 101 of 138 plays (74%), the Cowboys had only 1 or 2 WR on the field at the same time.
So, with all of this conjecture in the off season about which WR is #2 (Bryant or Williams?) and which is #3 (Bryant or Williams or Crayton?) you can understand a small amount of consternation from the players involved. They know that last year, when the game was in great doubt, aside from the 2-minute offense, Jason Garrett and the offense preferred power-run looks that had both Jason Witten and Martellus Bennett on the field plowing run paths and setting up play-action passes.
And that simply means that many times, WRs were standing on the sideline watching. Based on the numbers from ProFootballFocus.com we see that of the 1247 snaps that the Cowboys took last season, Jason Witten took 99% of the snaps. Roy Williams 73%, Miles Austin 69% (remember his limited role in the first 4 weeks), Patrick Crayton 50%, Sam Hurd 9%, and Kevin Ogletree 5% of the snaps. Martellus Bennett, whose numbers are very important – because when he is on the field, a WR must step off it – was on the field 46% of the time last year because of his ability to run block (Obviously not his ability to make catches last season). And young blocking TE was out there 19% of the time, demonstrating their love for power football.
Where do you go in 2010? Dez Bryant has everyone so excited with the options and the possibilities. But, in 2009, the bread and butter of the team in base down and distance situations was to only have 2 Wideouts on the field at the same time. Remember, in 2008, the Cowboys had so many weapons and so many possibilities that during the week, we all wondered what aerial attack was going to have the opponent begging for mercy on Sunday. But, when the game arrived, Garrett, Tony Romo, and the gang could not figure out how to use Terrell Owens, Williams, Witten, Crayton, and the gang all together. It just didn’t compute to moving the ball.
So, slowly, the transition to “Romo-Friendly” began. That was code for “more run plays out of more run-based formations”. And, it worked. The Cowboys had a progress-filled 2009. They showed that simplifying was the key to their success. Create confusion for the defense about whether the play was a run or a pass. This will allow more room in the secondary.
With Dez Bryant, it appears the idea is to go back to 2008. More WRs on the field. More pass declarations before the snap. More aerial attack! Will it work? They have plenty of work to do.
And now, you can understand why the Cowboys take work in May and June so seriously. I suspect the offense is attempting to figure this riddle out now so it makes sense in September.
WORLD CUP --------------------------
Yes, I am going to write about the biggest sporting event on the planet. And, I am going to challenge you to get up to speed with this American squad before Saturday’s blastoff with England.
This could be a historic tournament for the USA squad, and it is based on a few things; the timing of the tournament hits in the prime of the single greatest soccer player in this country’s history, Landon Donovan. Donovan is now 28 years old, and is coming off a successful loan at Everton in the spring where he gained all sorts of confidence. Many people always thought he didn’t have the quality for Europe because his trips to Germany were so underwhelming. But, he certainly proved those ideas wrong and seems to have set the table for a permanent move to Everton in August if he so desires.
Donovan is in his prime as is Texas product, Clint Dempsey. Dempsey, a product of Fulham himself, is coming off a season where he made another big mark in the Premiership, and is a guy who certainly knows what he can do at the top level. He scored the only goal for the USA in the 2006 World Cup, and now with 4 more years of European experience under his belt will not be intimidated by seeing John Terry (Chelsea) trying to mark him.
With those two players in the midfield and being counted on to push forward and handle much of the offense, the team looks threatening when they have the ball. Trouble is, that won’t always be the case against some of the quality they are slated to run up against. The biggest concern for the USA as they prepare to play England, Algeria, and Slovenia is the back line. Just like in hockey, if the back line of defenders is weak, the goalie will have almost no chance. And here, the quality of the back 4 defenders for the Americans has been under a great spotlight. There have been too many times in the friendlies where the opposition ran free in the penalty area with no USA defenders in sight. This will be the death of a team in the World Cup. The strikers are too precise, and all they need is an inch. Wayne Rooney scores at every level of world football, so he will not be impressed with the rather so-so group of defenders he will face on Saturday.
So, what is the level of success for the USA? I am asked all of the time where the bar is. Can we win the World Cup? Well, no. The idea of the USA winning the World Cup seems about as far-fetched as Butler winning the NCAA Tournament (oh, wait).
Only 7 nations have ever won the World Cup (Italy, Brazil, France, Germany, England, Argentina, and Uruguay) and of those, only Italy, Brazil, Germany, and Argentina have won more than once since World War 2. These are the usual suspects, and if you are trying to sound smart around the office, the safe bets. Personally, I am taking the extremely risky bet of believing that Maradona won’t screw up Argentina.
But, for the United States, success lies in advancing out of their group. You must show well in the first 3 matches to force a 4th. In 2006, our boys scored exactly 1 goal and did not get out of its group. A similar showing would be very disheartening. Finish 1st or 2nd in Group C and advance to the knockout stage of 16. There, assuming you finish 2nd in Group C, you most likely play Germany (winner of Group D) in the round of 16, where you would be expected to lose. However, in 1 match, who knows?
I believe in Bob Bradley and his squad. Injuries haven’t helped and as a nation, we still seem a few players short of being a real threat, but I think we are ready to make a little more noise than we did in ’06. Matching ‘02’s run to the Quarterfinals would be so wonderful.
STARS --------------------------------------
My final topic for this week is going to touch on the quietest topic in the area right now, the Dallas Stars. Like the Rangers, everything still revolves around the business transaction that is hopefully going down behind the scenes right now to get the franchise to new owners who have the resources to properly run an NHL Franchise going forward.
I believe that the sale of the Stars will go much quicker and quieter than the Rangers (how could it not?) and will hopefully be done by the start of 2010-11’s season. However, my optimism does not allow me to believe that this will be done in time for July 1, when the Stars desperately need money to upgrade a squad that was several pieces short last year.
I hate to complain about new ownership – since that will be great for the franchise, but for me to get too optimistic, I need this offseason to count. If new owners don’t get the keys until opening night, that means the Stars will start the season again by being about $12 million under the cap again. Not a great spot to start the season.
So, I am anticipating that Joe Nieuwendyk and his crew have other plans to work within the budget, and still get that #1 defenseman that they so desperately need.
That means that the plan must be to work a trade this summer that reallocates where you are aiming your resources.
As I said all season, this team does not have a top defenseman, and that makes everyone else move up the ladder to a point where they are over-exposed. By getting a true #1 (or at least something much closer than Stephane Robidas), it allows, Robidas to move back down the depth chart to where he can play good minutes, but not so many that he is spent by St Patrick’s Day.
To get this guy, the Stars will look to flip one of their top 3 centers. If you watch the team at all, it is not hard to figure out which one. They would love to flip Mike Ribeiro now that they know Jamie Benn can play center at the NHL level. If you have $45 million dollars, you cannot put $35m on your forwards, $7m on defense, and $3m in Goal and wonder why your defense isn’t good enough.
So, you have very little money to work with, and you have Mike Ribeiro to deal. The landscape for big defenseman is not very impressive at that price range, but if anything makes sense, it would seem to be a deal that gets Sheldon Souray to Dallas. Souray is not just what the doctor ordered, but he is way closer to being that veteran defenseman back there than anything you presently have at the price you have to pay. Souray also has a monster gun from the point on the Power Play which would really change things.
Riberio for Souray would not set the NHL on fire, but it might be the move the Stars are looking to make in a summer with a lot of problems to address and no money with which to address them. With the Draft about 2 weeks away, I believe you can expect that this is the type of deal that would happen then. Maybe they have a better idea up their sleeve, but that is the one that makes some sense to me.
I must tell you that I am certainly excited to bring a weekly column to this new venture and to add my 2 cents on as many things as my column will hold every Thursday.
There are so many capable specialists for each of the local teams here, so I have to think that between their diligent hard work and things like this catch-all column, we will have you pretty well covered right here.
Each week, I want to grab 3 or 4 things that are rolling around in my head on the world of sports and put it out there for you. So, let’s get this party started right here:
COWBOYS ----------------------------------
One thing that will be extremely interesting to see this season is how the Cowboys decide to spend most of their snaps on offense based on personnel groupings. I absolutely think the Cowboys had an effective offense in 2009, but there were certain things it did far better than others.
For instance, there is no question that they were a better power running team than they were a wide open “Shotgun 3-wide” passing attack. And they knew it. Take those final 2 games against Philadelphia in consecutive weeks – 1 to win the division title, and 1 more to advance in the playoffs. In those 2 games to finish the season where the Cowboys offense looked wonderful in 2 blowout victories over the hated Eagles, the Cowboys went 3-wide on exactly 37 of 138 plays (26%). That may sound like quite a bit to you, unless you consider that 101 of 138 plays (74%), the Cowboys had only 1 or 2 WR on the field at the same time.
So, with all of this conjecture in the off season about which WR is #2 (Bryant or Williams?) and which is #3 (Bryant or Williams or Crayton?) you can understand a small amount of consternation from the players involved. They know that last year, when the game was in great doubt, aside from the 2-minute offense, Jason Garrett and the offense preferred power-run looks that had both Jason Witten and Martellus Bennett on the field plowing run paths and setting up play-action passes.
And that simply means that many times, WRs were standing on the sideline watching. Based on the numbers from ProFootballFocus.com we see that of the 1247 snaps that the Cowboys took last season, Jason Witten took 99% of the snaps. Roy Williams 73%, Miles Austin 69% (remember his limited role in the first 4 weeks), Patrick Crayton 50%, Sam Hurd 9%, and Kevin Ogletree 5% of the snaps. Martellus Bennett, whose numbers are very important – because when he is on the field, a WR must step off it – was on the field 46% of the time last year because of his ability to run block (Obviously not his ability to make catches last season). And young blocking TE was out there 19% of the time, demonstrating their love for power football.
Where do you go in 2010? Dez Bryant has everyone so excited with the options and the possibilities. But, in 2009, the bread and butter of the team in base down and distance situations was to only have 2 Wideouts on the field at the same time. Remember, in 2008, the Cowboys had so many weapons and so many possibilities that during the week, we all wondered what aerial attack was going to have the opponent begging for mercy on Sunday. But, when the game arrived, Garrett, Tony Romo, and the gang could not figure out how to use Terrell Owens, Williams, Witten, Crayton, and the gang all together. It just didn’t compute to moving the ball.
So, slowly, the transition to “Romo-Friendly” began. That was code for “more run plays out of more run-based formations”. And, it worked. The Cowboys had a progress-filled 2009. They showed that simplifying was the key to their success. Create confusion for the defense about whether the play was a run or a pass. This will allow more room in the secondary.
With Dez Bryant, it appears the idea is to go back to 2008. More WRs on the field. More pass declarations before the snap. More aerial attack! Will it work? They have plenty of work to do.
And now, you can understand why the Cowboys take work in May and June so seriously. I suspect the offense is attempting to figure this riddle out now so it makes sense in September.
WORLD CUP --------------------------
Yes, I am going to write about the biggest sporting event on the planet. And, I am going to challenge you to get up to speed with this American squad before Saturday’s blastoff with England.
This could be a historic tournament for the USA squad, and it is based on a few things; the timing of the tournament hits in the prime of the single greatest soccer player in this country’s history, Landon Donovan. Donovan is now 28 years old, and is coming off a successful loan at Everton in the spring where he gained all sorts of confidence. Many people always thought he didn’t have the quality for Europe because his trips to Germany were so underwhelming. But, he certainly proved those ideas wrong and seems to have set the table for a permanent move to Everton in August if he so desires.
Donovan is in his prime as is Texas product, Clint Dempsey. Dempsey, a product of Fulham himself, is coming off a season where he made another big mark in the Premiership, and is a guy who certainly knows what he can do at the top level. He scored the only goal for the USA in the 2006 World Cup, and now with 4 more years of European experience under his belt will not be intimidated by seeing John Terry (Chelsea) trying to mark him.
With those two players in the midfield and being counted on to push forward and handle much of the offense, the team looks threatening when they have the ball. Trouble is, that won’t always be the case against some of the quality they are slated to run up against. The biggest concern for the USA as they prepare to play England, Algeria, and Slovenia is the back line. Just like in hockey, if the back line of defenders is weak, the goalie will have almost no chance. And here, the quality of the back 4 defenders for the Americans has been under a great spotlight. There have been too many times in the friendlies where the opposition ran free in the penalty area with no USA defenders in sight. This will be the death of a team in the World Cup. The strikers are too precise, and all they need is an inch. Wayne Rooney scores at every level of world football, so he will not be impressed with the rather so-so group of defenders he will face on Saturday.
So, what is the level of success for the USA? I am asked all of the time where the bar is. Can we win the World Cup? Well, no. The idea of the USA winning the World Cup seems about as far-fetched as Butler winning the NCAA Tournament (oh, wait).
Only 7 nations have ever won the World Cup (Italy, Brazil, France, Germany, England, Argentina, and Uruguay) and of those, only Italy, Brazil, Germany, and Argentina have won more than once since World War 2. These are the usual suspects, and if you are trying to sound smart around the office, the safe bets. Personally, I am taking the extremely risky bet of believing that Maradona won’t screw up Argentina.
But, for the United States, success lies in advancing out of their group. You must show well in the first 3 matches to force a 4th. In 2006, our boys scored exactly 1 goal and did not get out of its group. A similar showing would be very disheartening. Finish 1st or 2nd in Group C and advance to the knockout stage of 16. There, assuming you finish 2nd in Group C, you most likely play Germany (winner of Group D) in the round of 16, where you would be expected to lose. However, in 1 match, who knows?
I believe in Bob Bradley and his squad. Injuries haven’t helped and as a nation, we still seem a few players short of being a real threat, but I think we are ready to make a little more noise than we did in ’06. Matching ‘02’s run to the Quarterfinals would be so wonderful.
STARS --------------------------------------
My final topic for this week is going to touch on the quietest topic in the area right now, the Dallas Stars. Like the Rangers, everything still revolves around the business transaction that is hopefully going down behind the scenes right now to get the franchise to new owners who have the resources to properly run an NHL Franchise going forward.
I believe that the sale of the Stars will go much quicker and quieter than the Rangers (how could it not?) and will hopefully be done by the start of 2010-11’s season. However, my optimism does not allow me to believe that this will be done in time for July 1, when the Stars desperately need money to upgrade a squad that was several pieces short last year.
I hate to complain about new ownership – since that will be great for the franchise, but for me to get too optimistic, I need this offseason to count. If new owners don’t get the keys until opening night, that means the Stars will start the season again by being about $12 million under the cap again. Not a great spot to start the season.
So, I am anticipating that Joe Nieuwendyk and his crew have other plans to work within the budget, and still get that #1 defenseman that they so desperately need.
That means that the plan must be to work a trade this summer that reallocates where you are aiming your resources.
As I said all season, this team does not have a top defenseman, and that makes everyone else move up the ladder to a point where they are over-exposed. By getting a true #1 (or at least something much closer than Stephane Robidas), it allows, Robidas to move back down the depth chart to where he can play good minutes, but not so many that he is spent by St Patrick’s Day.
To get this guy, the Stars will look to flip one of their top 3 centers. If you watch the team at all, it is not hard to figure out which one. They would love to flip Mike Ribeiro now that they know Jamie Benn can play center at the NHL level. If you have $45 million dollars, you cannot put $35m on your forwards, $7m on defense, and $3m in Goal and wonder why your defense isn’t good enough.
So, you have very little money to work with, and you have Mike Ribeiro to deal. The landscape for big defenseman is not very impressive at that price range, but if anything makes sense, it would seem to be a deal that gets Sheldon Souray to Dallas. Souray is not just what the doctor ordered, but he is way closer to being that veteran defenseman back there than anything you presently have at the price you have to pay. Souray also has a monster gun from the point on the Power Play which would really change things.
Riberio for Souray would not set the NHL on fire, but it might be the move the Stars are looking to make in a summer with a lot of problems to address and no money with which to address them. With the Draft about 2 weeks away, I believe you can expect that this is the type of deal that would happen then. Maybe they have a better idea up their sleeve, but that is the one that makes some sense to me.
Wednesday, June 09, 2010
Giant World Cup Blog
It starts tomorrow. I am so very excited about the fact that the 2010 World Cup is here.
Yes, I am going to write about the biggest sporting event on the planet. And, I am going to challenge you to get up to speed with this American squad before Saturday’s blastoff with England.
This could be a historic tournament for the USA squad, and it is based on a few things; the timing of the tournament hits in the prime of the single greatest soccer player in this country’s history, Landon Donovan. Donovan is now 28 years old, and is coming off a successful loan at Everton in the spring where he gained all sorts of confidence. Many people always thought he didn’t have the quality for Europe because his trips to Germany were so underwhelming. But, he certainly proved those ideas wrong and seems to have set the table for a permanent move to Everton in August if he so desires.
Donovan is in his prime as is Texas product, Clint Dempsey. Dempsey, a product of Fulham himself, is coming off a season where he made another big mark in the Premiership, and is a guy who certainly knows what he can do at the top level. He scored the only goal for the USA in the 2006 World Cup, and now with 4 more years of European experience under his belt will not be intimidated by seeing John Terry (Chelsea) trying to mark him.
With those two players in the midfield and being counted on to push forward and handle much of the offense, the team looks threatening when they have the ball. Trouble is, that won’t always be the case against some of the quality they are slated to run up against. The biggest concern for the USA as they prepare to play England, Algeria, and Slovenia is the back line. Just like in hockey, if the back line of defenders is weak, the goalie will have almost no chance. And here, the quality of the back 4 defenders for the Americans has been under a great spotlight. There have been too many times in the friendlies where the opposition ran free in the penalty area with no USA defenders in sight. This will be the death of a team in the World Cup. The strikers are too precise, and all they need is an inch. Wayne Rooney scores at every level of world football, so he will not be impressed with the rather so-so group of defenders he will face on Saturday.
So, what is the level of success for the USA? I am asked all of the time where the bar is. Can we win the World Cup? Well, no. The idea of the USA winning the World Cup seems about as far-fetched as Butler winning the NCAA Tournament (oh, wait).
Only 7 nations have ever won the World Cup (Italy, Brazil, France, Germany, England, Argentina, and Uruguay) and of those, only Italy, Brazil, Germany, and Argentina have won more than once since World War 2. These are the usual suspects, and if you are trying to sound smart around the office, the safe bets. Personally, I am taking the extremely risky bet of believing that Maradona won’t screw up Argentina.
But, for the United States, success lies in advancing out of their group. You must show well in the first 3 matches to force a 4th. In 2006, our boys scored exactly 1 goal and did not get out of its group. A similar showing would be very disheartening. Finish 1st or 2nd in Group C and advance to the knockout stage of 16. There, assuming you finish 2nd in Group C, you most likely play Germany (winner of Group D) in the round of 16, where you would be expected to lose. However, in 1 match, who knows?
I believe in Bob Bradley and his squad. Injuries haven’t helped and as a nation, we still seem a few players short of being a real threat, but I think we are ready to make a little more noise than we did in ’06. Matching ‘02’s run to the Quarterfinals would be so wonderful.
So that covers my thoughts on the United States. Now, let's work in some email as we go here:
Bob,
Will you be make picks on the show for the World Cup?
Will you be playing any of the online brackets?
Got any favorites?
Thanks,
Blake
Blake,
I am sure I will do picks on the show today. But, let's get them on record right here and right now for all to see:
Group A: 1) Uruguay and 2) France - Nobody knows what to think about this group. I have seen people make a case for all 4 sides to go through.
Group B: 1) Argentina and 2) Nigeria - For some reason, I have plenty of faith in Messi, Tevez, and the boys this year. Of course, nobody expects Maradona to keep from NOT screwing things up as their manager, but I love their options - despite a fairly odd team selection story.
Group C: 1) England and 2) USA - Please, please, please tell me the US can get out of group C. I really don't want my buzz killed that quickly!
Group D: 1) Germany and 2) Serbia - Germany is always the safe bet here, and I am likely foolish to not expect more from Ghana given that this is being played in Africa. Home continent always counts in the World Cup.
Group E: 1) Netherlands and 2) Cameroon - Denmark will probably make me pay for this pick, but now I have 2 African Nations in to the Final 16.
Group F: 1) Italy and 2) Paraguay - Who wouldn't like to see New Zealand get through, right? Italy is Italy and defending it crown. Paraguay shows the depth of South America in general.
Group G: 1) Brazil and 2) Portugal - Ah yes, the group of death. Ivory Coast is very dangerous, but I just can't see them pulling one of these 2 heavyweights out of the tournament. Drogba's cast will be the big story here.
Group H: 1) Spain and 2) Honduras - Yes. I am going off the board with one pick, and it is to be a homer for the region and put Honduras through. Blind faith, but their homer call that got them in the World Cup was too awesome not to enjoy.
Hi Bob,
Let's talk some soccer. I was wondering if there was any chance that The Ticket would be doing anything for the World Cup either before, during, or after. I understand that there really isn't an audience for it, but I believe that the interest is definitely growing. I mean more and more people are familiar with the sport and even some on the stars in the US Men's National Team, I mean, the Confederations Cup was a great display and platform for those players. I actually believe that your average spare knows Landon Donovan, Tim Howard, Charlie Davis (even if it's only because of his accident) or the international stars, Messi, Rooney, Fabregas, Cristiano Ronaldo, Drogba, etc, and I think that a soccer show would attract an audience that is seeking an outlet to talk soccer. Like even if it's an hour a week during the weekend, The Ticket could be the first station to broadcast to that demographic, be a pioneer for the sport in the Dallas Market.
I know it will probably be terribly difficult to break a soccer exclusive show or even bring up the idea at the station but it could actually work. The MLS is ever-expanding and the appeal of the European leagues and the Champions League Final broadcast on FOX are drawing more and more Americans into the game. Even the FIFA video game has helped introduce people into the how to watch the game. at least it's a start.
I am very into the sport, grew up with it and follow it religiously. I am terribly excited about the World Cup and have watched every World Cup since USA94 (I'm 26 years old and was 11 at the time) I have listened to you from time to time mention soccer for a couple of seconds and everytime I wish there was a soccer specific show on the air, I don't think that is such a hard sell but then again, this is a Football country and mostly reserve to the 4 big sports.
Anyways I would like to end this letter just picking your brain about the World Cup and get some of your opinions on the tournament,
Who do you think aside from the four favorites (Spain, Germany, Italy, Brazil) could have strong showing?
I believe I heard you say that Argentina could be a dark horse and yes, I think that Argentina has some potential but the way that Maradona is handling the team is quite subpar, he has already called up over 100 players and surely cannot depend on Messi alone, sure Higuain and Tevez will make their mark in South Africa but everyone knows that Messi does not play the same way with the national team, simply and mostly because he doesn't have the same players around him as in Barcelona. My other picks could be England, France (although they will be playing with a young team for the most part) or even the Netherlands.
Do you see the USMNT getting past the fourth game?
In my bracket I have them playing Germany
What are your favorite players or are you looking forward to seeing?
This has to be one of the World Cups with the most stars playing, I mean, look at Spain they don't even have a spot for Fabregas! Almost every single team has a superstar.
How do you see that USMNT's group? I don't think they should have a problem getting past the group stage, Slovakia and Algeria should not be hard to get past. England will be a very hard game but England should be able to come out on top
Anyway, I'm not sure what good this email will do but I just thought that I didn't lose anything by trying.
Thank you for reading my email
Aldo Guerrero
Wow, Aldo. That is quite an email.
First, let me say that many of you have requested a soccer specific show. I am sure there is a market for it, but I am not sure I could add that to all of the specialty shows I already do with the Stars and Cowboys seasons. I do like weekends, too, you know!
But, I should tell you that every single day during the World Cup, we are giving the 2:30 segment to World Cup Hoy! A look at the tournament from the BaD Radio point of view. I will keep it light to keep listeners interested despite their love of the beautiful game, but it is there EVERY DAY of the World Cup.
Here is my Round of 16 Matches:
Game 49: 1A Uruguay vs 2B Nigeria - Let's go with the 2 time WC Champion, Uruguay to push through on African soil. URUGUAY
Game 50: 1C England vs 2D Serbia - I have England going through to the Round of 8, but this is not an easy match. Serbia could win their group. Maybe it goes to penalties! ENGLAND
Game 51: 1D Germany vs 2C USA - I think the USA can beat Germany. But, I would have to be a fool to actually pick it. Playing Germany in the World Cup is playing the chalk, and I better play the Chalk - GERMANY
Game 52: 1B Argentina vs 2A France - THis will be awesome. What a 1st Round Match up! Give me ARGENTINA
Game 53: 1E Netherlands vs 2F Paraguay - The Dutch are usually a popular pick because who doesn't love their style and their uniforms. I am a huge fan of Van Persie, and he appears back in form. NETHERLANDS
Game 54: 1G Brazil vs 2H Honduras - I doubt Honduras will actually be Brazil's 1st opponent in the knockout stage, but let's assume if that is the case that Dunga will be very pleased. BRAZIL
Game 55: 1F Italy vs 2E Cameroon - I am tempted. I really am, but I better move Italy through here. ITALY
Game 56: 1H Spain vs 2G Portugal - WOW. Neither team wants this. I have Spain going through here, but holy cow, this one will be very tight. Ronaldo can win a match all by himself (although he is my mortal enemy). Awesome. SPAIN
More Email:
Hey Bob-
Not sure if you are a Uni-dork like me, but Paul Lukas is breaking down WC Uni's (Part 1 and 2 listed at the top of the page):
Link
Thank You,
Amir
I love it! Lots of minutiae, but a great read.
OK, let's do the Round of 8:
Game 58: WInners of Games 49 and 50: Uruguay vs England: Really? England plays Serbia and Uruguay? What a lovely road to the final 4! I guess ENGLAND, but now I feel like I am over-rating them!
Game 57: Winners of Games 53 and 54: Netherlands vs Brazil: I am really, really tempted here to roll with the Dutch. You know what? I feel compelled to roll with BRAZIL.
Game 59: Winners of Games 51 and 52: Germany and Argentina: Another outrageously delicious match. I am assuming by now that Messi has thrown it into the next gear. ARGENTINA
Game 60: Winners of Games 55 and 56: Italy and Spain: Can we really depend on Spain to play this consistently well for this long? They are very deep. But, there is a high choke factor here. SPAIN
More Email:
Why isn’t their flag the Union Jack instead of the White with red cross?
Jody
I believe the Union Jack is for Great Britain and the White with Red is for England. I would bet that over 50% of America can't tell the difference between those two (Isn't Great Britain another name for England?). But, thanks for your email.
Now the SemiFinals!
GAME 61: Winners of Games 57 and 58: England vs Brazil - And here, the England run of glory ends. But, a trip to the SemiFinals is thought of as a wonderful accomplishment. This is where I will depend on Kaka and Robinho to get it going. BRAZIL
Game 62: Winners of Games 59 and 60: Argentina vs Spain - I am going to keep rolling with Argentina here against all logic. I think most of the soccer world will go with Spain here. DeMichelis and Smuel in central defense for Argentina will be the key. And by this point of the tournament you have to assume that Mascherano will be sitting on a card-related suspension. But, caution to the wind! ARGENTINA
More Email!
Hi Bob,
It was nice meeting you yesterday in Lowe's in Mansfield. I talked to you about soccer...I was born and raised in the former Czechoslovakia and my favorite team was from Budapest.
Anyway, I was just wondering if you had a favorite goal. Some of my all time favorites are:
Ronnie Whelan
Marco Van Basten
Diego Maradona
Maxi Rodriguez
Of course there are more but these are the ones that stick out. Perhaps a short segment about big time goals before the world cup?
Anyway good meeting you and keep up the great work. Thanks for entertaining me(us...P1s) throughout the day.
Cheers,
Kornel Romada
The Maradona is an all-timer, and Maxi Rodriguez brought the world off its couch in 2006. Amazing. I also loved Michael Owen's goal in '98 against Argentina.
And now, the WORLD CUP FINAL:
ARGENTINA vs BRAZIL - And you know what? I am rolling with the disappointing Argentina side. It is crazy! But, so am I.
ARGENTINA IS WORLD CHAMPIONS OF SOUTH AFRICA 2010!
Enjoy the World Cup.
Tuesday, June 08, 2010
Scott Feldman Rerun
Just got this email about our hero, Scooter Feldman:
Thanks, Chris, but I don't know what to believe about Scott Feldman. I swear, I wrote him off...then admitted I was wrong...then, wondered if I was wrong again (2 wrongs do make a right in this case). The more I watch, the more I wonder if my original instinct was correct.
Before you read this essay from last summer that Chris referenced, you should know 2 things that must be considered. First, Feldman had a big August and raised his K's/9 to 5.36 in 2009. Which had us all wondering if he was swimming in the safe zone. And second, so far in 2010, his K's/9 are back down in the danger zone at 4.96 through last night.
Anyway, I am not re-running this for any purpose other than to find out what you think. Can we trust in him? The Rangers do , given that they signed him to a deal that will make him $4.4m in 2011, $6.5m in 2012, and possibly $8.65m in 2013.
=========================================
July 29, 2009
On the left, you will see the cover of one of my favorite baseball books of all-time. It is "The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract". Printed in 2003, I likely have not read this great thing cover-to-cover, but I reference it all of the time.
I always find it interesting how polarizing Bill James can be to people. The reason I find it curious, is that when he has an opinion that seems controversial, he then demonstrates why he believes what he believes about the great game of baseball. When he demonstrates his cases, it always includes the miles of research that appears to cement his thoughts. Once you have a mountain of evidence that supports his claims, then it no longer is a claim. Based in facts, one's opinions seem to carry much more substance. And that is the way Bill James seems to operate in his book.
The essay that he wrote about studying young pitchers and trying to figure out how to project a pitcher's success rate is called "Bird Thou Never Wert" from pages 289-294 of the book. If you would like to read the entire essay, you should be able to read it here .
It is very compelling and very eye-opening. The essay basically suggests that despite many different efforts being used to project the success chances of a young pitcher, there is only one stat that can be applied to a body of work that is supported by evidence when you check the stats. Not wins, not ERA, not WHIP, and not minor league work loads. It is very simply, K's per 9 innings.
James writes: "I am always amazed that people fail to see this on their own. The career expectation for a strikeout pitcher is so much greater than the career expectation for a non-strikeout pitcher of the same age and ability that the difference is very obvious if you study the issue. Of course, not that many people actually study baseball issues, but it is not like this is a trivial matter. Trying to figure out what a pitcher's potential might be is basic to being a baseball fan.
If a pitcher's strikeout rate is less than 4.5 per 9 innings, you can pretty much write him off as somebody who is going to have a real career."
In fact, he writes, that if you desire a pitcher who has a chance to be one great pitchers of his decade, then you should know that all of those pitchers "were all above the league strikeout average early in their careers. Probably 7 of the 10 greats of any era led their league in striekouts at least once." - One detail that may interest you is that in 2009, the league strikeout average rate is 6.8 per 9 innings.
What does all of this have to do with anything? The curious cases of the young Rangers' pitchers.
As I watch Rangers baseball this season, I often wonder what the Rangers rotation will look like in 2010 or 2011. If we feel like 2009 is a bonus year, and that this team is really ready to win big in 2010 and beyond, then treating 2009 as a chance to see which of these pitchers have something is a fair objective of this season.
So, I watch Scott Feldman and get quite excited. I think the guy can flat-out pitch. The way he has mowed through start after start is very promising. He doesn't get strikeouts, but my eyes tell me the kid can pitch. His opponents do not hit him (opponents AVG is .228) and 17 starts into the year, he is 9-3, with a 3.59 ERA. When Dan McDowell and I debate his merits on our radio show, I swear that Feldman is the real deal and Dan is reminded of Ryan Drese.
Ryan Drese in 2004 was a very solid pitcher for the Rangers. 14-10, and over 200 innings with a 4.20 ERA. He did many things well, and if you examine his game log from that season you will probably agree that he appeared to be the real deal. But, before 2004 and after 2004, Drese was not the real deal, and that is why after 2005, Drese started only 2 games in the major leagues.
I was ready to buy stock in Drese after 2004, and Dan once again directed me to the Bill James essay that said that Drese could not last. Why? Because Drese's strikeout rate in 2004 was 4.2 per 9. And, as James pointed out, "I have been looking for a starting pitcher who could pitch consistently well with a low strikeout rate. I still haven't found one."
So where is Scott Feldman, you ask? Well, since 2007, the Rangers have had only 5 different pitching seasons from a pitcher where the strikeouts per 9 innings fell below the Bill James standard of 4.5 per 9.
They are:
Scott Feldman, 2009 - 4.49 per 9
Mike Wood, 2007 - 4.44 per 9
Scott Feldman, 2008 - 4.40 per 9
Scott Feldman, 2007 - 4.38 per 9
Sidney Ponson, 2008 - 4.04 per 9
* list only includes those who pitched a minimum 30 innings
James writes more about his findings: Combining these two almost aboslute facts: 1) That all good, young pitchers with strikeout rates below 4.00 per game disappear quickly and 2) That all pitchers who have long careers start out with strikeout rates in excess of the league average.
Keep in mind that he is not saying ALL power pitchers with high strikeouts end up with great careers. He is actually saying that to become a pitcher with a great career, you must have a strikeout rate above the league average. By the way, Derek Holland has a strikeout rate this year of 7.0 per 9.
Also, later in the essay he discusses the fact that every pitcher's strikeout rate falls as he gets older. Kevin Millwood is a great example of this, as his K rate has never been lower. But, his career rate is 7.1 and he has had several seasons over 8.0 per 9. So, obviously, if Feldman starts at 4.5, then when it falls, James suggests that 100 years of baseball indicate that he won't be a functional starter in the big leagues.
Can Scott Feldman be the exception to the rule? My eyes say yes. Bill James says there is no example of this ever lasting for the long haul. I tried to call his bluff. I ran the numbers for every pitcher who has won 100 games in the big leagues since the year 1970. 40 seasons of major league baseball to see if I could find a few. 214 pitchers have won 100 games since 1970. Of those, 27 had a career K rate lower than 4.5 per 9.
Of those, only 1 pitcher has pitched in the last decade. Kirk Rueter. Kirk won 130 games with the Expos and Giants with a career K rate of 3.8 per 9. And there is your entire list.
As you watch Feldman tonight, see what you think. I am very interested if Feldman is what we think he is, or is he another Ryan Drese?
In honor of Feldman's start today, you need to repost your blog entry from last year on how Feldman's numbers reflected a pitcher who would probably be a one year wonder. Great time to pat yourself on the back, plus it was very informative.
Chris
Thanks, Chris, but I don't know what to believe about Scott Feldman. I swear, I wrote him off...then admitted I was wrong...then, wondered if I was wrong again (2 wrongs do make a right in this case). The more I watch, the more I wonder if my original instinct was correct.
Before you read this essay from last summer that Chris referenced, you should know 2 things that must be considered. First, Feldman had a big August and raised his K's/9 to 5.36 in 2009. Which had us all wondering if he was swimming in the safe zone. And second, so far in 2010, his K's/9 are back down in the danger zone at 4.96 through last night.
Anyway, I am not re-running this for any purpose other than to find out what you think. Can we trust in him? The Rangers do , given that they signed him to a deal that will make him $4.4m in 2011, $6.5m in 2012, and possibly $8.65m in 2013.
=========================================
July 29, 2009
On the left, you will see the cover of one of my favorite baseball books of all-time. It is "The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract". Printed in 2003, I likely have not read this great thing cover-to-cover, but I reference it all of the time.I always find it interesting how polarizing Bill James can be to people. The reason I find it curious, is that when he has an opinion that seems controversial, he then demonstrates why he believes what he believes about the great game of baseball. When he demonstrates his cases, it always includes the miles of research that appears to cement his thoughts. Once you have a mountain of evidence that supports his claims, then it no longer is a claim. Based in facts, one's opinions seem to carry much more substance. And that is the way Bill James seems to operate in his book.
The essay that he wrote about studying young pitchers and trying to figure out how to project a pitcher's success rate is called "Bird Thou Never Wert" from pages 289-294 of the book. If you would like to read the entire essay, you should be able to read it here .
It is very compelling and very eye-opening. The essay basically suggests that despite many different efforts being used to project the success chances of a young pitcher, there is only one stat that can be applied to a body of work that is supported by evidence when you check the stats. Not wins, not ERA, not WHIP, and not minor league work loads. It is very simply, K's per 9 innings.
James writes: "I am always amazed that people fail to see this on their own. The career expectation for a strikeout pitcher is so much greater than the career expectation for a non-strikeout pitcher of the same age and ability that the difference is very obvious if you study the issue. Of course, not that many people actually study baseball issues, but it is not like this is a trivial matter. Trying to figure out what a pitcher's potential might be is basic to being a baseball fan.
If a pitcher's strikeout rate is less than 4.5 per 9 innings, you can pretty much write him off as somebody who is going to have a real career."
In fact, he writes, that if you desire a pitcher who has a chance to be one great pitchers of his decade, then you should know that all of those pitchers "were all above the league strikeout average early in their careers. Probably 7 of the 10 greats of any era led their league in striekouts at least once." - One detail that may interest you is that in 2009, the league strikeout average rate is 6.8 per 9 innings.
What does all of this have to do with anything? The curious cases of the young Rangers' pitchers.
As I watch Rangers baseball this season, I often wonder what the Rangers rotation will look like in 2010 or 2011. If we feel like 2009 is a bonus year, and that this team is really ready to win big in 2010 and beyond, then treating 2009 as a chance to see which of these pitchers have something is a fair objective of this season.
So, I watch Scott Feldman and get quite excited. I think the guy can flat-out pitch. The way he has mowed through start after start is very promising. He doesn't get strikeouts, but my eyes tell me the kid can pitch. His opponents do not hit him (opponents AVG is .228) and 17 starts into the year, he is 9-3, with a 3.59 ERA. When Dan McDowell and I debate his merits on our radio show, I swear that Feldman is the real deal and Dan is reminded of Ryan Drese.
Ryan Drese in 2004 was a very solid pitcher for the Rangers. 14-10, and over 200 innings with a 4.20 ERA. He did many things well, and if you examine his game log from that season you will probably agree that he appeared to be the real deal. But, before 2004 and after 2004, Drese was not the real deal, and that is why after 2005, Drese started only 2 games in the major leagues.
I was ready to buy stock in Drese after 2004, and Dan once again directed me to the Bill James essay that said that Drese could not last. Why? Because Drese's strikeout rate in 2004 was 4.2 per 9. And, as James pointed out, "I have been looking for a starting pitcher who could pitch consistently well with a low strikeout rate. I still haven't found one."
So where is Scott Feldman, you ask? Well, since 2007, the Rangers have had only 5 different pitching seasons from a pitcher where the strikeouts per 9 innings fell below the Bill James standard of 4.5 per 9.
They are:
Scott Feldman, 2009 - 4.49 per 9
Mike Wood, 2007 - 4.44 per 9
Scott Feldman, 2008 - 4.40 per 9
Scott Feldman, 2007 - 4.38 per 9
Sidney Ponson, 2008 - 4.04 per 9
* list only includes those who pitched a minimum 30 innings
James writes more about his findings: Combining these two almost aboslute facts: 1) That all good, young pitchers with strikeout rates below 4.00 per game disappear quickly and 2) That all pitchers who have long careers start out with strikeout rates in excess of the league average.
Keep in mind that he is not saying ALL power pitchers with high strikeouts end up with great careers. He is actually saying that to become a pitcher with a great career, you must have a strikeout rate above the league average. By the way, Derek Holland has a strikeout rate this year of 7.0 per 9.
Also, later in the essay he discusses the fact that every pitcher's strikeout rate falls as he gets older. Kevin Millwood is a great example of this, as his K rate has never been lower. But, his career rate is 7.1 and he has had several seasons over 8.0 per 9. So, obviously, if Feldman starts at 4.5, then when it falls, James suggests that 100 years of baseball indicate that he won't be a functional starter in the big leagues.
Can Scott Feldman be the exception to the rule? My eyes say yes. Bill James says there is no example of this ever lasting for the long haul. I tried to call his bluff. I ran the numbers for every pitcher who has won 100 games in the big leagues since the year 1970. 40 seasons of major league baseball to see if I could find a few. 214 pitchers have won 100 games since 1970. Of those, 27 had a career K rate lower than 4.5 per 9.
Of those, only 1 pitcher has pitched in the last decade. Kirk Rueter. Kirk won 130 games with the Expos and Giants with a career K rate of 3.8 per 9. And there is your entire list.
As you watch Feldman tonight, see what you think. I am very interested if Feldman is what we think he is, or is he another Ryan Drese?
Sunday, June 06, 2010
Boston Celtics Tattoo Report
Watching the NBA Finals, I thought I would get up off my keyboard and check the ink on our rivals. First, the Boston Celtics. This is what actually inspired this time wasting study. Back when Boston visited Dallas this year, I remember marveling at how few Celtics seemed to have ink. Pierce, Rondo, Allen. They all seemed bare. But, the study showed that Pierce and Rondo both have ink, but not the traditional NBA player on the shoulder and arm. Rather, Rondo and Pierce both have huge back tats, as shown in the pictures on this entry.
Tricky, huh? But, with a little help from google....now we can find them.
As usual, my findings are done in a hasty search through google, so if I have something wrong, help me get it right.
Enjoy. And click on any "Y" to see a picture of their tattoos.
| Boston Celtics Tattoo Roster | |
| Ray Allen | N |
| Tony Allen | N |
| Marquis Daniels | Y |
| Glen Davis | Y |
| Michael Finley | N |
| Tony Gaffney | N |
| Kevin Garnett | Y |
| Oliver Lafayette | Y |
| Kendrick Perkins | Y |
| Paul Pierce | Y |
| Nate Robinson | Y |
| Rajon Rondo | Y |
| Brian Scalabrine | N |
| Rasheed Wallace | Y |
| Shelden Williams | N |
| Totals | 9/15 |
9 of 15 is a very solid ratio. Well done, Celtics.
Past Reports:
Phoenix Suns 5/14
San Antonio Spurs 9/15
Oklahoma City Thunder 2/13
Orlando Magic 9/13
Memphis Grizzlies 9/15
Denver Nuggets 9/13
Portland Trailblazers 8/14
Dallas Mavericks 6/13
Saturday, June 05, 2010
Ex-Rangers Email
This email is a follow-up to a previous episode of Ask Sports Sturm about ex-Rangers and their earning power. Enjoy.
Bob:
I did a quick rundown of the highest paid ex-Ranger or Ranger farmhand on each of the other 29 big league teams. I won't say this was a full and exhaustive search but it is fairly accurate.
There are 4 teams with no ex-Rangers on their 25 man roster: Angels, Braves, Red Sox and Rockies.
There are 8 teams with an ex-Ranger as their highest paid player (including Ranger farm hand Aaron Harang): Astros, Cubs, Indians, Orioles, Padres, Rays, Reds, and Yankees.
Two of those teams actually have Rangers in the top two spots on their payroll:
Three teams have two of their five top paid players as ex-Rangers in the Reds and Padres.
There are 5 additional teams with an ex-Ranger in their top 5 highest paid players: Blue Jays, Brewers, Giants, Mariners, and Mets. (The Yankees also have a second ex-Ranger player in the top 5).
There are 8 additional teams with an ex-Ranger in their top 10 highest paid players: Athletics, Cardinals, Dodgers, Nationals, Phillies, Pirates, Tigers and White Sox.
The full list:
Angels - No ex-Rangers
Astros - #1 Carlos Lee ($18.5 million)
Athletics - #7 Justin Ducsherer ($1.75 million)
Blue Jays - #3 Edwin Encarncion ($4.75 million) (Rangers Draft pick and minor leaguer)
Braves - No ex-Rangers
Brewers - #5 Doug Davis ($5.25 million)
Cardinals - #6 Ryan Ludwick ($5.45 million)
Cubs - #1 Alfonso Soriano ($18 million)
Diamondbacks - #18 Kris Benson ($.65 million)
Dodgers - #7 Vicente Padilla ($5.025 million)
Giants - #5 Mark DeRosa ($6 million) (although #1 Barry Zito was a Ranger draft pick)
Indians - #1 Travis Hafner ($11.5 million)
Mariners - #2 Milton Bradley ($9 million)
Marlins - #14 Mike Lamb ($0.5 mil)
Mets - #5 Gary Matthews, Jr. ($11 million)
Nationals - #8 Ivan Rodriguez ($3 million)
Orioles - #1 Kevin Millwood ($12 million)
Padres - #1 Chris Young ($6.25 million); #2 Adrian Gonzalez ($4.75 million); #7 Jerry Hairston, Jr. ($2.125 million)
Phillies - #7 Jamie Moyer ($6.5 million)
Pirates - #8 Brendan Donnelly ($1.35 million) (Donnelly was cut in 2009's Rangers Spring Training
Rangers - NA
Rays - #1 Carlos Pena ($10.125 million)
Reds - #1 Aaron Harang ($12.5 million) (Rangers pick and minor leaguer); #2 Francisco Cordero ($12 million);
Red Sox - No ex-Rangers
Rockies - No ex-Rangers
Royals - #14 Scott Podsednik ($1.75 million)
Tigers - #10 Gerald Laird ($3.95 million)
Twins - #25 Ron Mahay (signed minor league deal but now in the bigs likely making around $0.4 million)
White Sox - #10 John Danks ($3.45 million)
Yankees - #1 Alex Rodriguez ($32 million); #4 Mark Teixeira ($20 million)
Peace,
Tim Darley
Bob:
I did a quick rundown of the highest paid ex-Ranger or Ranger farmhand on each of the other 29 big league teams. I won't say this was a full and exhaustive search but it is fairly accurate.
There are 4 teams with no ex-Rangers on their 25 man roster: Angels, Braves, Red Sox and Rockies.
There are 8 teams with an ex-Ranger as their highest paid player (including Ranger farm hand Aaron Harang): Astros, Cubs, Indians, Orioles, Padres, Rays, Reds, and Yankees.
Two of those teams actually have Rangers in the top two spots on their payroll:
Three teams have two of their five top paid players as ex-Rangers in the Reds and Padres.
There are 5 additional teams with an ex-Ranger in their top 5 highest paid players: Blue Jays, Brewers, Giants, Mariners, and Mets. (The Yankees also have a second ex-Ranger player in the top 5).
There are 8 additional teams with an ex-Ranger in their top 10 highest paid players: Athletics, Cardinals, Dodgers, Nationals, Phillies, Pirates, Tigers and White Sox.
The full list:
Angels - No ex-Rangers
Astros - #1 Carlos Lee ($18.5 million)
Athletics - #7 Justin Ducsherer ($1.75 million)
Blue Jays - #3 Edwin Encarncion ($4.75 million) (Rangers Draft pick and minor leaguer)
Braves - No ex-Rangers
Brewers - #5 Doug Davis ($5.25 million)
Cardinals - #6 Ryan Ludwick ($5.45 million)
Cubs - #1 Alfonso Soriano ($18 million)
Diamondbacks - #18 Kris Benson ($.65 million)
Dodgers - #7 Vicente Padilla ($5.025 million)
Giants - #5 Mark DeRosa ($6 million) (although #1 Barry Zito was a Ranger draft pick)
Indians - #1 Travis Hafner ($11.5 million)
Mariners - #2 Milton Bradley ($9 million)
Marlins - #14 Mike Lamb ($0.5 mil)
Mets - #5 Gary Matthews, Jr. ($11 million)
Nationals - #8 Ivan Rodriguez ($3 million)
Orioles - #1 Kevin Millwood ($12 million)
Padres - #1 Chris Young ($6.25 million); #2 Adrian Gonzalez ($4.75 million); #7 Jerry Hairston, Jr. ($2.125 million)
Phillies - #7 Jamie Moyer ($6.5 million)
Pirates - #8 Brendan Donnelly ($1.35 million) (Donnelly was cut in 2009's Rangers Spring Training
Rangers - NA
Rays - #1 Carlos Pena ($10.125 million)
Reds - #1 Aaron Harang ($12.5 million) (Rangers pick and minor leaguer); #2 Francisco Cordero ($12 million);
Red Sox - No ex-Rangers
Rockies - No ex-Rangers
Royals - #14 Scott Podsednik ($1.75 million)
Tigers - #10 Gerald Laird ($3.95 million)
Twins - #25 Ron Mahay (signed minor league deal but now in the bigs likely making around $0.4 million)
White Sox - #10 John Danks ($3.45 million)
Yankees - #1 Alex Rodriguez ($32 million); #4 Mark Teixeira ($20 million)
Peace,
Tim Darley
Thursday, June 03, 2010
May 2010 - Starting Rotation Profile
This is my monthly look at each of the Rangers starting pitchers through simple statistics.
Now that we have 2 months of data to sort through, we start to see the sample sizes grow to about 60 innings or so for each of the starters. We can stop saying "its early" as they have about 10 starts a piece, and start looking at what each of them are going to be in 2010.
5,432 pitches have been tossed my Rangers' starters through May 31. Now, we need to look at how well they have been doing with them.
Just so we are all up to speed with the different stats, IPS is Innings Per Start and PPS is Pitches Per Start. Everything else will be metrics that I am sure you are familiar with.
Before you start, we need to establish league averages for the stats so you understand what consitutes "league average". So, here you go - These are the American League Averages through the end of May:
ERA - AL Average is 4.21 (4.16 in April)
AVG - AL Average is .258 (.256)
OBP - AL Average is .329 (.330)
SLG - AL Average is .407 (.408)
K/9 - AL Average is 6.78 (6.85)
BB/9 - AL Average is 3.44 (3.59)
HR/9 - AL Average is 0.96 (0.97)
WHIP - AL Average is 1.37 (1.37)
Rotation Splits
As you can see, from pretty much every angle, the numbers are getting worse in May. Fewer innings per start, more pitches to get there. Batting average up, Slugging is way up, and strikeouts are down. Is this a normal valley in the season or was April too good to be true for many of the pitchers?
Also, the Rangers went from 13 for 23 (56%) for Quality Starts in April, to 11 for 27 (41%) in May. This trend takes them 2nd from bottom in AL Quality Starts. Yikes.
To compare to last year's rotation, Check out the Final 2009 Rotation Profile
===============
Scott Feldman
Feldman keeps puttering along at well below 2009 rates. In 2009, he had 1 month of over a 4.33 ERA. This year, he is 2 for 2. The league hit .245 off Feldman last year, this year they are over .300. He shows occasional flashes, but overall, Scott Feldman is not helping the doubt in your head go away if you questioned the "realness" of 18 of 31 Quality Starts and 17 wins. Feldman is, quite frankly, reminding most of what we thought he was before 2009. A guy.
HRs: (6) Adam Lind, Vernon Wells, Ryan Sweeney, Mike Aviles, Jose Bautista, Billy Butler
====================
Rich Harden Splits
In April, I called his month a disaster. I suppose May was better in some regards (after all, he wasn't walking a batter an inning!), but there is clearly nothing here to write home about. 3 for 10 in Quality Starts from a supposed #1? Please. His May ERA was actually worse than his April. His ability to go deep in games appears relatively non-existent (aside from his glorious night in Oakland), and we shall see where this goes. But, so far, I think most people want their money back on this purchase.
HRs: (7) Alex Gonzalez, Shin-Soo Choo, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Quentin, David DeJesus, Lyle Overbay, Travis Snider
===================
Matt Harrison Splits
What happens when a pitcher has a higher walk rate in a month than a strikeout rate? He basically gets dropped from the rotation. However, things change and he is back for now with Holland going down. My tune on Matt Harrison remains the same. In a starting rotation, he is a decent #6 or #7, but there just isn't the consistent ability to get guys out. Too many base-runners, too many Home Runs, and too little ability to pitch out of a jam with a nice strikeout.
HR: (7) Shin-Soo Choo, JD Drew, Mike Lowell, Darnell McDonald, Brandon Inge, Billy Butler
==================
Colby Lewis Splits
Tough to complain when a pitcher converts 4 of his 5 starts into Quality starts, and for his entire 63+ innings, the league is hitting .204 off him. His strikeouts returned to their expected rates in May and the slugging against took a pretty large jump. But, Colby Lewis, at worst, is this team's clear #2 starter. At best, he is their best. Take your choice as we head to June.
HRs:(5) Jeremy Hermida, Austin Jackson, Eric Patterson, Eric Chavez, Jose Bautista
==================
CJ Wilson Splits
I think WHIP tells you almost all you need to know about how well a pitcher is doing. Lewis and Wilson have sub 1.20 WHIPs, while Feldman and Harden are over 1.60 (league average is 1.37). If you don't allow baserunners, you seldom get in trouble. Your HRs allowed are always solo shots, and the skies are not cloudy all day. Good news: Wilson is 7 for 10 QS, which leads the team. Bad News: his last 3 starts in May were not quality at all. We will be keep a close eye on his next few to see if the real CJ will please stand up.
HR: (4) Torii Hunter, Juan Rivera, Alfonso Soriano, Orlando Hudson
======================================
Derek Holland Splits
Small sample size for the Dutch Oven, but we still see some very nice things like his K'rate and his WHIP. But, this we know about Derek. When the opponents hit the ball, they hit it real hard. His opponent's slugging percentage of .481 is way over the league average. In 2009, his opponent's slugging was at .511, so this is not a new trend. They don't always hit Holland, but when they do, it is either over the wall or off the wall. This is a bad trend that needs to change - I believe it suggests that the opponents sit on a particular pitch, and if they guess right, it is not difficult for them to do severe damage.
HR: Mike Napoli, Torii Hunter, Alfonso Soriano, Starlin Castro
Now that we have 2 months of data to sort through, we start to see the sample sizes grow to about 60 innings or so for each of the starters. We can stop saying "its early" as they have about 10 starts a piece, and start looking at what each of them are going to be in 2010.
5,432 pitches have been tossed my Rangers' starters through May 31. Now, we need to look at how well they have been doing with them.
Just so we are all up to speed with the different stats, IPS is Innings Per Start and PPS is Pitches Per Start. Everything else will be metrics that I am sure you are familiar with.
Before you start, we need to establish league averages for the stats so you understand what consitutes "league average". So, here you go - These are the American League Averages through the end of May:
ERA - AL Average is 4.21 (4.16 in April)
AVG - AL Average is .258 (.256)
OBP - AL Average is .329 (.330)
SLG - AL Average is .407 (.408)
K/9 - AL Average is 6.78 (6.85)
BB/9 - AL Average is 3.44 (3.59)
HR/9 - AL Average is 0.96 (0.97)
WHIP - AL Average is 1.37 (1.37)
Rotation Splits
| Month | GS | QS | IP | IPS | PPS | ERA | AVG/OBP/SLG | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | WHIP |
| Thru April | 23 | 13 | 140.2 | 6.11 | 101.2 | 3.71 | .230/.320/.312 | 7.03 | 4.16 | 0.83 | 1.30 |
| Thru May | 50 | 24 | 286.1 | 5.72 | 108.6 | 4.46 | .247/.331/.385 | 6.91 | 3.92 | 1.01 | 1.39 |
As you can see, from pretty much every angle, the numbers are getting worse in May. Fewer innings per start, more pitches to get there. Batting average up, Slugging is way up, and strikeouts are down. Is this a normal valley in the season or was April too good to be true for many of the pitchers?
Also, the Rangers went from 13 for 23 (56%) for Quality Starts in April, to 11 for 27 (41%) in May. This trend takes them 2nd from bottom in AL Quality Starts. Yikes.
To compare to last year's rotation, Check out the Final 2009 Rotation Profile
===============
Scott Feldman
| Month | GS | QS | IP | IPS | PPS | ERA | AVG/OBP/SLG | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | WHIP |
| April | 5 | 3 | 26 | 5.2 | 96.8 | 4.50 | .279/.345/.404 | 4.84 | 3.80 | 0.69 | 1.53 |
| May | 5 | 0 | 31 | 6.2 | 109.4 | 6.97 | .326/.367/.511 | 5.22 | 2.32 | 1.16 | 1.67 |
| Total | 10 | 3 | 57 | 5.2 | 103.1 | 5.84 | .305/.357/.464 | 5.05 | 3.00 | 0.95 | 1.61 |
Feldman keeps puttering along at well below 2009 rates. In 2009, he had 1 month of over a 4.33 ERA. This year, he is 2 for 2. The league hit .245 off Feldman last year, this year they are over .300. He shows occasional flashes, but overall, Scott Feldman is not helping the doubt in your head go away if you questioned the "realness" of 18 of 31 Quality Starts and 17 wins. Feldman is, quite frankly, reminding most of what we thought he was before 2009. A guy.
HRs: (6) Adam Lind, Vernon Wells, Ryan Sweeney, Mike Aviles, Jose Bautista, Billy Butler
====================
Rich Harden Splits
| Month | GS | QS | IP | IPS | PPS | ERA | AVG/OBP/SLG | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | WHIP |
| April | 5 | 2 | 23.2 | 4.7 | 94.8 | 4.56 | .250/.430/.417 | 8.36 | 8.74 | 1.52 | 1.86 |
| May | 5 | 1 | 25.1 | 5.0 | 99.2 | 5.68 | .260/.328/.413 | 9.23 | 3.91 | 1.06 | 1.50 |
| Total | 10 | 3 | 49.0 | 4.9 | 97.0 | 5.14 | .255/.378/.415 | 8.81 | 6.24 | 1.28 | 1.67 |
In April, I called his month a disaster. I suppose May was better in some regards (after all, he wasn't walking a batter an inning!), but there is clearly nothing here to write home about. 3 for 10 in Quality Starts from a supposed #1? Please. His May ERA was actually worse than his April. His ability to go deep in games appears relatively non-existent (aside from his glorious night in Oakland), and we shall see where this goes. But, so far, I think most people want their money back on this purchase.
HRs: (7) Alex Gonzalez, Shin-Soo Choo, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Quentin, David DeJesus, Lyle Overbay, Travis Snider
===================
Matt Harrison Splits
| Month | GS | QS | IP | IPS | PPS | ERA | AVG/OBP/SLG | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | WHIP |
| April | 4 | 2 | 23 | 5.75 | 101 | 5.48 | .253/.314/.367 | 5.86 | 3.13 | 1.95 | 1.39 |
| May | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5.5 | 111 | 5.14 | .283/.355/.358 | 3.85 | 4.50 | 0.64 | 1.57 |
| Total | 6 | 3 | 37 | 5.66 | 104.3 | 5.35 | .264/.331/.419 | 5.10 | 3.64 | 1.45 | 1.46 |
What happens when a pitcher has a higher walk rate in a month than a strikeout rate? He basically gets dropped from the rotation. However, things change and he is back for now with Holland going down. My tune on Matt Harrison remains the same. In a starting rotation, he is a decent #6 or #7, but there just isn't the consistent ability to get guys out. Too many base-runners, too many Home Runs, and too little ability to pitch out of a jam with a nice strikeout.
HR: (7) Shin-Soo Choo, JD Drew, Mike Lowell, Darnell McDonald, Brandon Inge, Billy Butler
==================
Colby Lewis Splits
| Month | GS | QS | IP | IPS | PPS | ERA | AVG/OBP/SLG | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | WHIP |
| April | 5 | 2 | 32.2 | 6.5 | 109.4 | 2.76 | .195/.286/.297 | 10.5 | 3.58 | 0.55 | 1.10 |
| May | 5 | 4 | 30.2 | 6.1 | 108.0 | 4.11 | .214/.318/.357 | 6.16 | 4.40 | 0.88 | 1.27 |
| Total | 10 | 6 | 63.1 | 6.3 | 113.0 | 3.41 | .204/.302/.326 | 8.38 | 3.97 | 0.71 | 1.18 |
Tough to complain when a pitcher converts 4 of his 5 starts into Quality starts, and for his entire 63+ innings, the league is hitting .204 off him. His strikeouts returned to their expected rates in May and the slugging against took a pretty large jump. But, Colby Lewis, at worst, is this team's clear #2 starter. At best, he is their best. Take your choice as we head to June.
HRs:(5) Jeremy Hermida, Austin Jackson, Eric Patterson, Eric Chavez, Jose Bautista
==================
CJ Wilson Splits
| Month | GS | QS | IP | IPS | PPS | ERA | AVG/OBP/SLG | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | WHIP |
| April | 4 | 4 | 25.2 | 6.4 | 104.7 | 1.75 | .223/.318/.255 | 7.36 | 3.50 | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| May | 6 | 3 | 39.0 | 6.5 | 105.8 | 4.62 | .221/.302/.324 | 6.00 | 3.23 | 0.92 | 1.17 |
| Total | 10 | 7 | 64.2 | 6.4 | 105.3 | 3.48 | .222/.309/.297 | 6.54 | 3.34 | 0.55 | 1.19 |
I think WHIP tells you almost all you need to know about how well a pitcher is doing. Lewis and Wilson have sub 1.20 WHIPs, while Feldman and Harden are over 1.60 (league average is 1.37). If you don't allow baserunners, you seldom get in trouble. Your HRs allowed are always solo shots, and the skies are not cloudy all day. Good news: Wilson is 7 for 10 QS, which leads the team. Bad News: his last 3 starts in May were not quality at all. We will be keep a close eye on his next few to see if the real CJ will please stand up.
HR: (4) Torii Hunter, Juan Rivera, Alfonso Soriano, Orlando Hudson
======================================
Derek Holland Splits
| Month | GS | QS | IP | IPS | PPS | ERA | AVG/OBP/SLG | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | WHIP |
| May | 4 | 2 | 18.1 | 4.6 | 86.5 | 4.19 | .247/.301/.481 | 7.45 | 2.79 | 1.86 | 1.29 |
| Total | 4 | 2 | 18.1 | 4.6 | 86.5 | 4.19 | .247/.301/.481 | 7.45 | 2.79 | 1.86 | 1.29 |
Small sample size for the Dutch Oven, but we still see some very nice things like his K'rate and his WHIP. But, this we know about Derek. When the opponents hit the ball, they hit it real hard. His opponent's slugging percentage of .481 is way over the league average. In 2009, his opponent's slugging was at .511, so this is not a new trend. They don't always hit Holland, but when they do, it is either over the wall or off the wall. This is a bad trend that needs to change - I believe it suggests that the opponents sit on a particular pitch, and if they guess right, it is not difficult for them to do severe damage.
HR: Mike Napoli, Torii Hunter, Alfonso Soriano, Starlin Castro
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